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TQQQ

$SPY Analysis, Key Levels, & Targets… $SPY Analysis, Key Levels, & Targets… I am definitely still bullish, y’all… The last three days I’ve played daily calls and won and that is not indicator of anything because you can play both sides most of the time… but I am bullish… We’re at the bottom of the channel… Yes, lots of funds blew up last week, but then there’s a lot of people that have been mostly in cash since jan (ME) that are itching to play again (outside of just the daily day trade scalping)… There’s a lot of deals out there right now and I think that we will see a little bit of green in the next week or so. I’m sure the bottom’s not in but money is shifting around and some names you won’t be able to see this low again…. What stocks are you guys thinking about possibly nibbling on?? I bought NIO and RIVN, TQQQ, and AMD this week… definitely looking for others that have taken a beating lately…. Good luck y’all and as always let me know what you think, and sorry if I’m slow to respond sometimes…
AMEX:SPYLong
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
17
TQQQ Wheel of Fortune Modeling Although you can effectively model the P&L of 30 days 'til expiry at-the-money short puts, it's difficult to model "the other stuff" a trader would typically do with a short put that is in the money toward expiry (i.e., take assignment, roll out "as is," roll out for strike improvement, etc.). (At least, I don't have access to that kind of model or can't easily program one without breaking my brain). You can, however, run a small number of occurrences (relatively speaking) to see how the setup would work in practice, so that you can have expectations as to how much the at-the-money 30 day short put pays over time, as well as the frequency of assignment and/or ending up with an in-the-money that has to be managed. You'd naturally have to run this for months to get any decent idea of how the setup would perform over a larger time frame. (Most studies actually look at selling a given strike in expiries of a given duration on a daily basis, which would be a lot of spreadsheet). The basic rules: 1. Sell the at-the-money short put nearest 30 days until expiry. 2. Either close out the short put on approaching worthless (e.g., <.20) or run to expiry if in-the-money. 3. If assigned on any given short put, initially sell the 30 days until expiry call at the strike at which you sold the short put, looking to exit the resulting covered call at a profit.* 4. Since not everyone has "infinite cash," I'll assume a maximal deployment of 5 lots. As you can see by the chart, you can contemplate getting stuck in a particular rung or rungs for a lengthy period of time, reducing cost basis via rolls of the short call until you're able to exit that "leg" profitably or at break even. The ROC becomes almost immediately "less sexy" when that occurs, since that will potentially be "dead buying power" for weeks (and potentially months) at a time. 5. It's probably to one's advantage to have additional rules as to when and when not to pull the trigger on a given rung (i.e., implied volatility rank and 30-day implied), but for the sake of simplicity, I'm not setting out that type of rule here. Pictured here would be the first leg, at the 47 strike in the May 13th expiry, paying 4.25 at the mid, with a resulting cost basis of 47.00 - 4.25 or 42.75 if assigned shares on the 47 short put.** For purposes of the return on capital calculation, I'm operating on the assumption that the short put will be cash secured,*** which means you'll tie up 42.75 of buying power to put this on, with the resulting ROC of 9.94% at max (implying a finish above the short put strike at expiry or the ability to pull off the short put on approaching worthless prior to that). * -- In practice, this isn't what I do when confronted with an in-the-money short put at expiry. I look at (a) taking assignment; (b) rolling out the short put as is to varying durations; and (c) rolling out the short put with strike improvement to varying durations. I then compare and contrast what I would get for each in credit and generally opt for the choice that would result in the largest cost basis reduction. For example, I'm not going to take assignment to sell a call against for less credit than I could get by just rolling the short put out for duration. ** -- It doesn't look like you get much buying power relief on margin anyhow, at least with my broker. The buying power reduction for the 47 short put on margin appears to be 35.26 -- 75% of the short put strike. It's something, but not the typical relief you get on margin, which is about 20% of the short put strike. That being said, 4.25 on buying power effect of 35.26 is 12.05% at max -- a smidge sexier than cash secured. *** -- I can also see a potential additional rule or rules that takes profit between 42.75 (your break even) and 47.00 toward expiry as extrinsic in the 47.00 converges on 0 or potentially rolls out the 47 to a 30 day at-the-money strike when it's in profit. On a practical level, I tend to do this quite a bit, but it's involves rolling from an out-of-the-money strike to an out-of-the-money strike, which continues to leave leave me with room to be wrong.
NASDAQ:TQQQLong
by NaughtyPines
2
Resurrecting an old chart for BTC. Where it goes, NASDAQ followsI was convinced there was a crash coming last year and was charting a lot of interesting things. I was totally wrong. Or, more kindly, we could say my timing was off (as per usual). But, revisiting my old chart, it looks like the same pattern has repeated and, once again, we're on the edge of a cliff. Last time it was all good and I was totally wrong. But I can't shake what I'm seeing now. There was a clear head and shoulders in 2021 that came very close to confirming but then blasted up and never confirmed. There is a head and shoulders now on BTC 6M chart that hasn't been confirmed but is very close. The neckline is roughly where the last one was. I don't believe in coincidences. Volume is in keeping with that pattern. If it continues a general downward trend to $32K and beyond, it confirms and tumbles into the range I put on the chart. If you want to go full bear on this thing, roll out to the five-year chart and look at the double top (and its support/resistance level). Same deal. Unconfirmed pattern but very close. Has to continue to drop to around $32K and beyond before it's confirmed. If you want to go ultra bear, you could also look at the inverted cup and handle on the one-year chart. It's ticking all the boxes for that pattern but won't confirm unless it continues a trend down to $33K and beyond. Sorry for making any crypto folks anxious. Not trying to spread despair. Just showing what I see. Again. It's not confirmed. But where Bitcoin goes, the NASDAQ usually follows. I'd like to say I hope I'm wrong but I went to cash and puts in '21. I couldn't shake what I was seeing in macroeconomic trends. I think we just staved off what was coming in 2021 until now. I am sorry about all the carnage in the market for everyone. It sucks.
CME:BTC1!
by stockpreacherman
3
$TQQQ Update$TQQQ Update So All 4 targets from my last post have hit and I have added at all of them. (I’ll repost the last one below) My average is now 36.94 and I’m looking for 49.27 for 33.38% profit. IF the CPI comes in hot tomorrow and the market continues to sell off, then my next target to double my position will be at 20.12. Be careful out there, guys… the market is insane right now…. One of the best ways to stay hedged is to be mindful of your position sizes and trade small…. Always make sure you have funds to adjust in case we still have further to fall…. --------- I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed. GL and happy trading. IF you need anything analyzed Technically just comment with the Ticker and I’ll do it as soon as possible…
NASDAQ:TQQQLong
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
7
WATCHING $TQQQ for entry - Key Levels, Analysis, & Targets $TQQQ Key Levels, Analysis, & Targets Buy targets for TQQQ I’ll post the last one below this so you can see the last perfect swing… I will be starting at 57.54 even though I think it will go lower before going higher… looking for a 22-29% swing here depending on where I get in… --- I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed. GL and happy trading. IF you need anything analyzed Technically just comment with the Ticker and I’ll do it as soon as possible…
NASDAQ:TQQQShort
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
13
$QQQ Key Levels, Analysis, & Targets - Weekly$QQQ Key Levels, Analysis, & Targets I actually posted this chart already on friday… but on the daily timeframe… and this is the weekly and it really shows where this needs to head before we can have another meaningful bull rally… I think that in the next few weeks we will be trading in the red part of the box 334, 317, 303 are the three swing targets… Sell target 16% above average 20% if we hit all 3. (48% (60) for TQQQ (I’ll post those soon))
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
3
ProShares split all ETFs w/ 3wks notice This is TQQQ-SQQQ chart. I warned of the ProShares split, and it got little mention in the news since the announcement. This is one of the most popular ETF companies in the NYSE, with $550bn in ETFs. This is a big deal. They decided to split ALL ETFs, on short notice (3 weeks) , right before the biggest pullback since covid? Impeccable timing or what? The norm for announcement-to-split is 2-3 months out, but they split within 3 weeks!? For example, AMZN recently announced a 5/27 split; and GOOG who announced 7/15 split in December. The 22nd phenomenon is just when new contracts start for the next month; but looking at it from an ETF Giant's point of view you may glean something from the moves here. Did they know there was a problem? When? Did this help cause it? Any theories welcome. I'm not 100% sure what to make of it, but ProShares seemed to know exactly when to reset the books; and didn't give retail much notice. TQQQ Split History Table Date Ratio 02/25/2011 2 for 1 05/11/2012 2 for 1 01/24/2014 2 for 1 01/12/2017 2 for 1 05/24/2018 3 for 1 01/21/2021 2 for 1 01/13/2022 2 for 1
NASDAQ:TQQQ
by Nicklaus68