$PYPL (D) Discount Opportunities Approaching (after pullback)Will need a bit of time to work out this pullback. It may retest ema50 (Red MA) for support again in this mildly bearish near term trend. Be patient and stalk an entry.
Tradearcher
$SPY (D) With the decrease in bullish momentumit might pullback some. How much? Does not particularly matter. However here are some round possibilities and corresponding drawdown differences and percentages from $207.14 high.
Near term bearish. Manage your risk and obey your rules.
$DG (D) Discounts Soon Available. Near term bearish.Strong start YTD. Rolling back towards ema50 (Red MA). It may not touch, cross, or dip this attempt. But it might provide a long entry for interested parties after this near term bearish correction.
*Note: Given time and price action, ema50 always catches up to price before continuing or reversing.
$AAPL (D) Trend friendly?After pushing R4 pivot last month.
This month's potential high may retest near 120.
Should the trend break and fall through, a potential low near 100.
Obey your rules
$DXY (D) Sideways since 2015 with support near 94.If 96 holds near term, resistance test of 98 possible. RSI has some room before a resistance test. SMA50 (Red SMA) has a negative slope and SMA200's (Black SMA) slope is marginally flat.
Few cross currents in here. No life guard on duty.
$DDD (D): Solid two year crush. Gracing top of bearish channel.Resistance near R3 pivot. No need to rush in long despite SMA50 (Red MA) having a positive slope and SMA200 (Black MA) slowly becoming flat sloped.
Expecting some near term profit taking. As long as there is support near 8.50 and your technical and fundamental analysis conditionals are satisfied, be patient and stalk your entry.
$CB (D) Healthy overall. As long as it holds near 114 or nearthe bottom of the bullish channel. OBV slowly diminishing and RSI has some room to find support. Recent bearish MACD xover while in a macro marginally bearish MACD trend. Even though SMA50 (Red MA) has a positive slope, prior signals warrant caution near term.
Let it pull back some. Discounts entries are ok. Be patient. Let others do the hard work first; with their money. So what if it fails support near 114. Risk management is paramount, thus confirm with your rules.
$ARDX (D) Early. On watch, pending additional bullish support.Some insider buying this past week. Hard to tell other than the minor increase of SMA50 (Red SMA). RSI gradually increasing, OBV still strong. MACD making higher lows.
Conservative approach: Before dipping in, at least wait till SMA50 (Red MA) begins a positive slope. Otherwise you may end up trying to 'catch a falling knife' with others.
Obey your rules.
(W) Similar paranoia to August/September 2016Orbiting 25, like last year.
VIX can cover the 25 to 50 range quite dramatically. So it is always wise to protect your positions as needed.
(W) UNLNKD. For now. - Nearly 63% off recent high.
- RSI and MACD bearish.
- SMA50 with a negative slope; bearish.
- SMA200 violated and soon a negative slope
- OBV gradually decreasing since 2013
Manage your risk and obey your rules.
$AAPL (W) Near 50% Fib retrace and Aug. low.With a negatively sloped SMA50, it is mildly bearish and may soon test support of SMA200. Obey your rules
(M) Difficulty in the Auction MarketsNYSE:BID Not too far for a support test near 16 with OBV declining.
$BABA (D) Mildly bearish near term. With SMA50 negatively sloped and SMA200 rolling over with a negatively slope. Of course, pops, drops, magnets and any other volatility moves are likely to happen. Watch the prior S/R levels as potential targets. Obey your rules
(D) Near term short.Gap down has brought price to lower trend line of bullish channel. OBV has weakened from last weeks price action. Also price is below all three (Green, Orange, Red) MAs.
$SPY (D) What's the rush?The sooner you partake, the longer it takes. Let the deep pockets put their money in first. A trend till it is not. Patience. Obey your rules.
Horizontal lines are prior prices of contention and temporary price agreement.
(D): This hotel trust is clearly ______ .The Powerful Simplicity and Behavior of Moving Averages.
Description:
Beyond the normal definition and calculation of Moving Averages, they filter out the noise, show direction, strength, and volatility. My faster ema9 and ema19, the two green lines and light green fill, are faster and more responsive to the noise of the time frame. While my slower ema50, bold red line, and ema200, maroon line, are historical flag bearers; they are what the m=Market uses, legacy algorithms and now, to some degree, a self full-filling prophecy. They are perfect for showing orientation, long/short/neutral, and duration of the time frame.
$PEB Analysis Example:
MAs alone. It is bearish, since ema50 is negative sloping, though nearly flat, and approaching its ema200. Furthermore it does have some reach or volatility at times due to the distance ema9 moves away from ema50. It is short or neutral until for now. They might have a positive (increasing) slope soon. Generally ignore flat slopes since those show an indecision or a potential point of concavity.
Application:
If you are a long term investor, the Market Lines, MAs 50 and 200, provide simple proven trading systems and signals with minimum analysis. Then you can use your faster MAs to understand the speed and volatility as well as a potential exit signal when they intersect. For the rest of us, the same concept applies in the lower and faster time frames.
Do you have to use Exponential Moving Averages?
No. These are the ones I learned on and most comfortable trading with. There are a handful of different MAs, some more responsive than others. Use what you are more comfortable with.
Why do you use 9 and 19 speeds (lengths)?
I wanted a set of lines that represent my trading goals and activity. Since ema50 and ema200 are my market lines, I wanted emas that were more responsive. By the traditional calculation of alpha, a = 2 / (n + 1) , where n is the MA length. When n is odd, it just simplifies the calculation of alpha. Nothing special really. Use whichever lengths you are comfortable with.
What about the other indicators?
More detail another time. But generally bearish.
Should you trade with MAs alone?
Uh. No. Volume is also an important factor in the technical and psychological analysis of the asset's valuation.
Also more detail on OBV another time.
By Kevin Johnson
Stock Twits and Trading View: tradearcher
@tradearcher
$XOM on watchXOM is on watch due to the fact that several indicators are not in sync. Volume has moved out dramatically since August 2014. Since then, there have been a few attempts at the end of 2014 and since mid March 2015 to find a bottom (despite decent earnings). Though MACD is bullish, the last week has met some resistance since MACD has started tapering again and may soon cross over into bearish territory. There have been some buyers, just not enough committed ones to help build upon its market value. Be patient if you like trading energy stocks. Let the Smart Money, Market Makers, Institutional Investors, Proprietary Trading Firms, and other market movers find the bottom and turn it around for you.
