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TradeCityPro Academy | Dow Theory Part 1👋 Welcome to TradeCityPro Channel! Welcome to the Educational Content Section of Our Channel Technical Analysis Training We aim to produce educational content in playlist format that will teach you technical analysis from A to Z. We will cover topics such as risk and capital management, Dow Theory, support and resistance, trends, market cycles, and more. These lessons are based on our experiences and the book The Handbook of Technical Analysis 🎨 What is Technical Analysis? Technical Analysis (TA) is a method used to predict price movements in financial markets by analyzing past data, especially price and trading volume. This approach is based on the idea that historical price patterns tend to repeat and can help traders identify profitable opportunities. 🔹 Why is Technical Analysis Important? Technical analysis helps traders and investors predict future price movements based on past price action. Its importance comes from several key benefits: Faster Decision-Making: No need to analyze financial reports or complex news—just focus on price patterns and trading volume. Better Risk Management: Tools like support & resistance, indicators, and chart patterns help traders find the best entry and exit points. Applicable to All Markets: Technical analysis can be used in Forex, stocks, cryptocurrencies, commodities, and even real estate. Understanding Market Psychology: Charts reveal investor emotions like fear and greed, allowing traders to react accordingly. 📌 Real-Life Example Imagine you own a mobile phone shop and want to predict whether phone prices will go up or down in the next few months. 🔹 Fundamental Analysis Approach You follow the news and see that the USD exchange rate is rising, and phone manufacturers plan to increase prices. Based on this, you predict that phone prices will go up soon. 🔹 Technical Analysis Approach You analyze past price trends and notice that every year, phone prices tend to increase before the New Year. This pattern has repeated for several years, so you assume it will happen again. As a result, you buy stock before the price hike and make a profit. This example shows that technical analysis allows you to make decisions based on past market behavior without relying on external news. 📊 I ntroduction to Dow Theory Today, for the first part of our lessons, we will begin with Dow Theory, which was developed by American journalist Charles Dow. Many traders still use this method for analysis and trading. Dow Theory is one of the fundamental concepts in technical analysis, developed by Charles Dow, the founder of The Wall Street Journal and co-founder of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). This theory provides a structured approach to understanding market trends and price movements and is still widely used today by traders and analysts. Dow Theory consists of six core principles, which we will explain in detail: 📑 Principles of Dow Theory 1 - The Averages Discount Everything (Not applicable to crypto) 2 - The Market Has Three Trends 3 - Trends Have Three Phases 4 - Trend Continues Until a Reversal is Confirmed 5 - The Averages Must Confirm Each Other 6 - Volume Confirms the Trend 💵 Principle 1: Price is All You Need According to this principle, all available information is already reflected in asset prices. This includes economic data, political events, earnings reports, trader expectations, and even market sentiment. If a company releases strong earnings, its stock price might not rise significantly because investors had already anticipated this and bought in advance. ❗ Why This Is Important Technical analysts focus on price movements rather than external news since all information is already factored into the market. Instead of reacting to news, traders analyze historical price trends to predict future price movements. 📊 Principle 2: The Market Has Three Types of Trends Dow Theory states that markets move in three types of trends, each occurring over different timeframes: 1 - Primary Trend: This is the main movement of the market, dictating the long-term direction, and can last for years. 2 - Secondary Trends: These are corrective movements that run opposite to the primary trend. For instance, if the primary trend is bullish, the corrective trend will be bearish. These trends can last from weeks to months. 3- Minor Trends: These are the daily price fluctuations in the asset. Although minor trends can last for weeks, their direction will always align with the primary trend, even if they contradict the secondary trend. 💡 Final Thoughts for Today This is the end of this part, and I must say we have a long journey ahead. We will continually strive to produce better content every day, steering clear of sensationalized content that promises unrealistic profits, and instead, focusing on the proper learning path of technical analysis. ⚠️ Please remember that these lessons represent our personal view of the market and should not be considered financial advice for investment.
Education
by tradecitypro
6
TradeCityPro Academy | Risk to Reward👋 Welcome to TradeCityPro Channel! Let’s dive into another educational segment. After discussing capital management and risk management, we now turn to one of the most crucial concepts before entering technical analysis: Risk to Reward! 📌 Understanding Risk-to-Reward in Real Life Before we start, let me give you an example of risk to reward from the real world, outside of financial markets. Imagine you are considering investing in a startup technology company that has launched a new product. Risk: You estimate that you might lose $500 of your investment due to uncertainty about the product's success and intense market competition. Reward: However, if the product succeeds and the company grows, you could make a profit of up to $2000. In this example, the risk-to-reward ratio is 1:4, meaning for every $1 at risk, you could earn $4 in reward. This ratio can help you decide if this investment is appealing. If you believe the risk is acceptable and the potential reward is valuable, you might choose to invest. ⚠️ The Reality of Risk-to-Reward in Trading In the real world, if you are a logical person, we all adhere to risk to reward principles. However, it’s puzzling how, in financial markets, you often close your profitable trades as quickly as possible while staying in losing trades for months. This indicates a failure to adhere to risk to reward principles. Before I explain risk management and related concepts, make sure you've viewed the previous sections on risk management and capital management. Remember, if you're not setting stop-loss orders, this lesson might not be very useful for you. 🔍 What is Risk-to-Reward in Trading? In financial markets, risk to reward refers to the ratio between the level of risk an investor takes with a specific investment and the potential reward from that investment. This concept helps investors evaluate whether a particular investment is worth the risk. When trading, if you are about to open a position, set a stop-loss. If your stop-loss is triggered, resulting in a $10 loss, your target profit should be at least $20, creating a risk to reward ratio of 2. I won’t open a position with less than this! It's important to note that risk to reward alone doesn't hold much meaning. It gains significance when considered alongside win rate. The chart I will share clarifies the relationship between win rate and risk to reward. Look at the chart below. If your risk to reward is 1 and your win rate is 50%, you are breaking even—neither gaining nor losing. For risk to reward ratios below 1, you need a win rate of 100% to break even. Our logical risk to reward ratio is 2, where a 40% win rate keeps you profitable. We should allow our minds room for error rather than always striving for accuracy. 🛠️ Understanding Trading Tools Let’s take a simple look at our tools. The chart showcases two types of tools: short position and long position, applicable for both falling and rising markets. The tool displays your risk to reward ratio in the middle, with the stop-loss percentage below and the profit percentage above for long positions, and vice versa for short positions. 📈 Why Should You Use a Risk-to-Reward of 2? Why do you implement a risk to reward of 2? Consider this: if I opened 10 positions this week, with 6 hitting stop-loss and 4 reaching targets, my total loss would be $60. However, due to adhering to a risk to reward ratio of 2, my total profit would be $80, resulting in a net gain of $20! This illustrates the importance of adhering to risk to reward principles. Even if we lose more trades than we win, we can still be profitable in the end. The key is to focus on the overall outcome rather than individual battles. ❌ What Happens If You Don’t Maintain a Standard Risk-to-Reward? Now, consider what happens if I don’t maintain a standard risk to reward. For instance, if I open a position with a risk to reward ratio of 0.5, even if I make a profit, a subsequent loss could negate that gain. If you are involved in financial spaces, you may have encountered signal channels that share their positions, encouraging you to follow for profitable outcomes. For example, if they claim to profit from 95 out of 100 positions, you might feel that winning sensation. But what is their risk to reward ratio? A ratio of 0.1 means that if they hit just a few stop-losses, you could end up in a loss. Be cautious of misleading advertisements and high-return claims. If you manage to achieve a 5% to 10% profit monthly and sustain it for a year, even starting with $100, your trading record will be respected, leading to more funding opportunities. Avoid falling into traps set by opportunistic individuals. 🚀 Practical Trading Considerations Consider this: if you want to open a position but your target is above a major resistance level, and the likelihood of reaching it seems slim, I personally prefer not to open that position. It indicates that my entry point may not be optimal. ❤️ Friendly Note In closing, I encourage you to keep your positions until you reach your risk to reward target. Avoid checking the chart until you hit that point. Set alerts and make decisions only then. Always adhere to these rules for all your positions, not just one. Don’t worry about losing out on profits; instead, approach trading with calmness. Finally, remember that a profit in a position is not truly realized until it is closed and transformed into something tangible—food, clothing, a house, or a car.
Education
by tradecitypro
8
TradeCityPro Academy | Risk Management👋 Welcome to TradeCityPro Channel! Let’s continue with another training session after the first part, which was about Capital Management, and dive into the important topic of Risk Management. 🕵️‍♂️ Risk Management as a Profession One of the heaviest responsibilities, riskiest roles, and most demanding efforts in studying or working in a company lies in the field of Risk Management. The job of risk management exists in various fields, including banking, insurance, investment, and consulting. People working in this field are responsible for identifying financial, operational, or project-related risks and designing strategies to reduce or manage them. The income of a risk manager varies depending on the country, industry, level of experience, and scope of the project. In developed countries, risk managers in financial industries can earn high incomes. On average, in the United States, the annual income of a risk manager ranges between $80,000 and $150,000. 💰 Risk Management in Financial Markets Risk management is one of the most important skills and concepts in the world of finance, business, and even daily life. It helps you identify, assess, and control potential risks to avoid unexpected losses. 💡 What is Risk Management? Risk management is the process of identifying and assessing potential threats and then taking actions to reduce or eliminate their negative impacts. This process helps you make more informed decisions and protect your capital or resources from unnecessary risks. In financial markets, risk management means identifying, evaluating, and controlling risks related to investments to prevent major losses. This includes setting a Stop Loss, diversifying your investment portfolio, using leverage responsibly, and sticking to your trading strategy. The primary goal is to preserve capital and optimize profits by managing potential risks. 💵 Why Should We Manage Risk? Before diving into the explanations, let’s illustrate the concept of risk management with a life example: Do you give the same kind of gift to your parents or partner as you would to a distant relative or a friend you recently met? Of course not! Everyone holds a different level of importance in your life. Now let’s examine this in financial markets. It’s better to have different risk management strategies for your setups and strategies based on market conditions. Categorize them into different groups using your Excel data and setups. As a side note, in this training, when we talk about risk, we mean the amount of capital you will lose after entering a position and hitting your stop loss not just the amount of capital involved in the position. Additionally, if you don’t have a written trading plan, strategies, or if you don’t document your positions in Excel or any other platform, this will not be beneficial for you and may result in future losses. 💼 Implementing Risk Management in Trading We need to categorize our trades based on market conditions, daily circumstances, chart setups, strategies, win rate, written trading plans, and our trade entry checklist. Here’s how I categorize trades: Very Risky - Risky - Normal - Confident 1️⃣ Very Risky For this category, it’s better to have a separate account purely for testing, FOMO, or experiments. These trades have very few confirmations (1–2). Trade with less than 0.1%–0.25% of your main capital in this category. 2️⃣ Risky These trades are opened in your main account because they generally meet some confirmations but lack key ones. For instance, you anticipate a resistance breakout and go long before confirmation. These trades usually have a small stop loss, leading to higher risk-to-reward ratios. Use 0.25%–0.5% of your capital for these trades. 3️⃣ Normal These trades have most confirmations but might miss a few. For example, out of 10 items on your checklist, 6–7 are confirmed. These form the majority of trades. Be cautious about the win rate of this category, as it should be higher than your overall average. Use 0.5%–0.75% of your capital here. 4️⃣ Confident These trades have all major confirmations, and your strategy’s triggers are activated. Additionally, 8–9 out of 10 items on your trade entry checklist are confirmed. These are your most confident trades. Use 0.75%–1% of your capital for these trades. ⚠️ Daily Risk Management Don’t use your entire daily risk limit at once. For example, if your daily risk is 1.5%, keep some risk in reserve in case your first trade hits its stop loss. This allows you to recover and even profit later in the day. Focus on normal trades. These should form the majority of your trades since they maintain a healthy win rate. Risky trades might lower your win rate, while confident trades occur less frequently and won’t significantly impact your overall win rate. 📝 Building Risk Management and Consistency Risk management based on your checklists and spreadsheets can take around 6–8 months to develop, starting after learning technical analysis. In the beginning, allocate 0.5% risk per trade while documenting your trades. This will prevent unnecessary self-blame for stop-loss hits in risky trades and help you trade confidently with a solid plan. ❤️ Friendly Note If you don’t follow these principles, trading might become an on-and-off journey, leading to frustration and eventual market exit. In the end, your money will go to traders who adhere to these rules. If you’ve read this far, congratulations! Unlike misleading social media ads, this guide offers genuine, practical insights. Be proud of your effort and focus on applying these principles. Let’s progress together and elevate our lives through financial markets. 😊
Education
by tradecitypro
51
TradeCityPro Academy | Money Management👋 Welcome to TradeCityPro Channel! Money Management Training Is More Important Than Learning Technical Analysis Let’s start the channel's training with the most important lesson, which helps us survive in the market, transform from a losing trader to a profitable one, and maintain our peace of mind! 📚 Capital Management in Life Capital management in life means planning and managing your financial, time, and even energy resources optimally to achieve personal and professional goals. This concept goes beyond financial matters and includes conscious and responsible decision-making to utilize various resources. 🕵️‍♂️ Capital Management in Financial Markets Capital management in financial markets refers to planning and controlling the amount of capital allocated for trading, investing, or activities in these markets. The main goal of capital management is to reduce the risk of asset loss and maintain financial survival in various market conditions. It is one of the key principles of success in trading and investing. 💰 Trading Without Capital Management Surely, like me, you have traded before learning about capital management, and some of you might have even been profitable for a while. However, that profitability has never been sustainable, and at some point in the market, you would lose a significant portion of your capital. Consequently, you might experience severe stress and pressure, affecting your social relationships, family life, restful sleep, and a stress-free lifestyle. Trading without capital management can bring profits occasionally, but the volatility in your trading account increases significantly, disrupting your peace of mind. For instance, if you have a $10,000 account, trading without capital management might result in one day making $20,000, but the next day dropping to $5,000. This wide range of volatility and the feeling of gaining and losing capital lead to losing your calm in subsequent trades, making you constantly monitor the charts because you haven’t set any rules for yourself. What If My Capital Is Only $100? You might say, “I only have $100; why should I do capital management? A 2% profit on $100 is insignificant.” Here’s the answer: even if your capital is small, you must manage it. If you consistently make a 5-10% monthly profit on that $100 over a year, your capital might not become substantial, but you’ll become a trader who many investors will seek to entrust their funds to. So, don’t just look at percentages. 💵 Why Don’t Most People Practice Capital Management? The reason why 95% of market participants don’t practice capital management is that they see trading as a get-rich-quick scheme. Unfortunately, due to misleading advertisements designed to empty your pockets, many view trading as a shortcut to wealth. Trading is a long journey; without practicing capital management, you might turn $100 into $10,000, but you’ll lose it all in the next trade. This isn’t poker, gambling, or any similar game. Markets are far more unpredictable. Without setting rules for yourself, you’ll be eliminated quickly, and your money will go to those who stay in the market. 💼 Defining Risk in Capital Management and Setting Daily Risk Limits While practicing capital management, you must define your daily risk limit. This means deciding the maximum percentage loss you’re willing to accept before closing the charts and ending your trading day. For example, if your daily risk is 1%, regardless of whether you open 4 trades or 2 trades, you’re not allowed to lose more than 1% of your capital in a single day. Now, suppose you’ve defined your daily risk limit. If you lose 1% for three consecutive days, totaling a 3% capital loss, would you be okay? Would you talk to your family and friends as usual? Would you stay calm? If not, then this isn’t your appropriate risk level, and it needs to be lowered. Additionally, you should have a monthly risk limit. For example, if your monthly risk (or drawdown) is 10%, you should stop trading for the month if you lose 10% of your capital and return to the charts the following month. Initially, accepting stop-losses, planning your trades, and adhering to capital management may be difficult. However, you must practice capital management for all your positions, not just a single trade. You should also set penalties for not adhering to it! Penalties vary depending on each person’s life. Moreover, you should view your profits and losses in percentages, not in dollar amounts. For example, instead of saying, “I made $10,” say, “I made a 1% profit.” Viewing your results in percentages is crucial as your capital grows because focusing on dollar amounts can negatively affect your trading. 💡 Practice and Example on the Chart Let’s go through an example on the chart to fully grasp the concept. On the chart, you’ll see the capital management formula, which includes: The total capital you’re using for futures trading. Your risk percentage, which is your position and daily risk discussed earlier. For instance, if your daily risk is 1%, your position risk could be 0.25%, 0.5%, or 1%, depending on the number of trades, but this is specific to the position you’re about to open. On the other side of the equation is the position size, which is the unknown we’re solving for using this formula. Next is the leverage, which is set in your exchange and doesn’t significantly impact your capital management. Finally, there’s the stop-loss size, which is determined using the position management tool in TradingView. Now, let’s apply the formula to a Bitcoin trade with a 4% stop-loss and a risk-to-reward ratio of 2. Suppose your total capital for futures is $1,000, and you’re willing to risk 0.5% on this position. The multiplication of these two numbers gives $500. On the other side of the equation, we’re solving for position size in dollars. Assuming a leverage of 10 and a 4% stop-loss (as shown in the example), the multiplication of 10 and 4 equals 40. Dividing $500 by 40 gives us $12.5. Therefore, you can enter this position with $12.5 using a 10x leverage. ❤️ Friendly Note If you don’t practice capital management or don’t agree with me, that’s completely fine! But take a small portion of your capital and trade according to the explanation above. See if you feel calmer and more at ease. Afterward, decide what’s best for your life. Finally, try to share this article as much as possible so that people don't lose their money in the market because it's not just their money that makes them frustrated and their pride is lost. Let's help them with the help of the community!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by tradecitypro
109