Get started

Tradedeal

GBP JPY - 2021 150+With the Brexit transition starting - let's see what happens. Outcome for a Brexit 'Yes' vote. As we come into the holiday season - there is important volume to note here, however the major players are positioned for either way. We have the purple buy zone, which price has seen a nice consolidation with some rejection wicks. January update: The amount of deals now in place with respective governments and individual deals for exports, flow of people and long term deals with infrastructure projects - we will now see the Yen to weaken. Provided there are now upsets from Internal UK parties to cause a stir nor Brussels or Euronations rejecting. With now the second vaccine beginning to take place on the target of 2million vaccines conducted per week - this will see the nice flows taken from the JPY shorts with institutions moving away to keep the upside moving as the UK races to lower the cases. Provided the probability seeing further buying power. We will see a huge engulfing candle to start the new imbalance. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. If you feel our work is exceptional and would like to donate coins, this is highly appreciated. Regardless we will continue producing analysis. Thanks, Team Lupa
Long
by LupaCapital
Three Possible Brexit Trade Deal ScenariosYet another extension. The initial deadline of last Sunday for the post-Brexit trade negotiation has just been extended. In a released joint statement after their call on Sunday morning, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen felt that it is responsible for trade talks to continue beyond the deadline but did not state how long the talks will continue for. What have been resolved so far? Although the three sticking points of fisheries, level-playing field and governance remain, that is not to say that no progress has been made. Last week, the UK and the EU have come to an agreement in principle on the issue of Northern Ireland border checks. Both the UK and the EU have agreed that no checks will be required for goods moving between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland as the former will remain in the EU customs unions and single market. Instead, border checks will be required between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. Apart from this issue, the UK government has also agreed to remove the controversial clauses from the Internal Market Bill. Those clauses would allow the UK government to ignore parts of the Northern Ireland protocol requirements which is a breach of the Withdrawal Agreement and international law. Three trade deal outcomes and how they may impact GBP/USD. Looking at the chart, we see that the announcement of the departure of UK from the EU back in June 2016 has plunged the GBP/USD down to as low as 1.20. Since then, GBP/USD has been trading below the 1.34 handle for most of the time. Several attempts were made to break beyond that handle but were to no avail. At the moment, GBP/USD is hovering around the 1.34 handle. Scenario One – A free trade deal is struck The ideal scenario. In the event whereby both the UK and the EU arrive at a free trade agreement, GBP/USD has a potential upside of up to the 1.40 handle. This still fall short of the level GBP/USD was trading at before the Brexit announcement was made back in June 2016 as the UK economy is still under pressure caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Thus, for GBP/USD to break above the 1.40 handle will require both a containment of the pandemic and a strong recovery of the UK economy. Nonetheless, it will be very challenging for this ideal scenario to happen given that the Brexit transition period ends in two weeks’ time. Furthermore, the finalized trade deal will also have to go through the UK and European Parliaments before it can be carried out, thus leaving less time for a deal to be established. Scenario Two – A partial free trade deal is struck with an extension of negotiation into 2021 This scenario is probably the most realistic one out there. It is no longer a surprise to anyone following the Brexit saga that a deadline will end up getting missed. No doubt 31 December is a hard deadline. But, given that the leaders of both countries are still pressing on for a free trade deal and that not establishing one is a lose-lose situation for both countries, they may come to a mutual agreement to strike a partial deal for now and carry on the negotiation into 2021 or, they may end up with a subpar deal (that is better than trading under the WTO terms) and put it up to the respective Parliaments for approval next year. Either way, the outcome will be positive but the upsize is limited to the 1.36 handle since there is still a level of uncertainty in the completion of the deal. Scenario Three – No free trade deal is struck The ultimate disappointment. Failing to establish a free trade deal would mean both the UK and the EU will be trading on WTO terms. What this would mean essentially is that tariffs will apply as stated in the WTO terms while border checks are mandatory, potentially creating traffic bottlenecks. This scenario will most likely send GBP/USD crashing to the 1.27 handle or lower if the COVID-19 situation in the UK continues to worsen since the costly tariffs will definitely add more burden to the current economic trauma. With time running out, Brexit headlines are bound to be the limelight in the media. Also, volatility in any pound-related currency pairs is expected to be high. Soon, we will know in which direction will GBP/USD be heading towards.
by JinDao_Tai
1
EURJPY Long IdeaHi everyone, with the next trading week coming up, and market opening tomorrow, here is a trade idea I've got for you guys. EURJPY Long Fundamentals: EUR: has been doing ok, good numbers for countries in Europe coming out, so I would see EUR as pretty bullish JPY: with the US-China Phase One Deal being agreed on, and as per some sources, will be signed on the first week of January 2020, JPY is bearish Technicals: I do see a good entry point here, retraced to 61.8% level, getting rejected a little bit, so all depends how market opens tomorrow on Sunday, might be a good addition. As always, I might make mistakes, nothing is 100% so please be sure to comment your opinion so we can discuss. I am open to any discussions and any opinions.
Long
by jimnakmtl
ORBEX: Look at SPX Volumes for Further Clues!Despite the US-China phase one trade deal supporting equities the upside could be minimized if priced in already since as indices have been moving up since the December truce! Geopolitics suggest more strength, however, technicals indicate otherwise! Will corporate earnings trigger a shift from a macro perspective? Well, either that or weaker US inflation data! It seems that equities hang on earnings and inflation, whereas the US index only on inflation data. Timestamps SPX 8H 01:30 DXY 8H 04:25 Trade safe Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
TVC:DXY
by Orbex
BE READY FOR NEXT WEEK BIG PUSH UP ONCE THE TRADE DEAL DONE !!!!There is a clear sign that next week Chinese Stocks will get a boost from the actual signing of the trade deal !!!! The same happened with Tesla and the china made Tesla , it took until they beat highly the sales forecast and to see the actual car being produced for the stock to DOUBLE in few weeks; NOTHING WAS REALLY NEW BUT THE BIG LESSON IS THAT MARKET LOVES WHEN THINGS ARE DONE AND SETTLED AND NOT ONLY IN THE AIR
NYSE:BABALong
by PhilippeDelpCFA
Trump and US-China Deal Attract the AttentionIt was risk-on mood after yesterday Trump teased traders with hope of a US-China trade deal by tweeting “Getting VERY close to a BIG DEAL with China. They want it, and so do we!” If the both sides can’t reach an agreement within the next few days, additional tariffs will be imposed on imported Chinese goods on Sunday, December 15th. If a deal is reached before Sunday, the tariffs will likely not be imposed, and current tariffs may be rolled back. The big question that remains is, “How much of the existing tariffs will be rolled back?” We saw following reports by the Wall Street Journal that U.S. negotiators offered to cut tariffs by 50%. But until Trump makes an official announcement, which must occur before December 15, the tariffs could still be imposed. The Dow Jones index has touched new record highs yesterday at $28,225. At this point in time it’s likely that we will continue to see pullbacks as buying opportunities. If the price break above the yesterday's high we could expect the bulls to extend the upside momentum towards 28,250 (the upper line of Bollinger Bands). But we wouldn’t be surprised at all that if by the end of the day Friday we don’t get any hint of a delay of the tariffs by Donald Trump and than the stock market pulls back significantly. The first support of course is the psychological 28,000 level. The 50-day SMA follow it, which has risen to 27,374. A clear break here could send DJIA 30 to retest the Dec. low at 27,325. If the tariffs do in fact go into effect, it’s likely that this market will gap down on Monday, so at this point it’s probably best to stay aside. All things being equal, but we think that the next 24 hours or so could be a bit dicey. In the next trading day you can throw out technicals of the window and it's possible to see "Buy the rumor, sell the fact" trading. Don’t forget the “Santa Claus rally” either.
TVC:DJILong
by ForexTrendline
ORBEX:Indices Following US-Sino Deal & Trump's Impeachment Vote!In today’s market insights I will talk about the cautious market reaction to the US-China trade deal announcement and what to look for in this week’s volatile session! Yes, I am still expecting markets to move considerably despite the festive season approaching. I analyze the leading NASDAQ and the US index and explain why I expect equities to continue higher! Timestamps NAS100 2H 01:40 DXY 2H 05:00 Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
TVC:DXY
by Orbex
The final word belongs to China. READ!Salute guys, Gold has been extremely erratic recently with a crazy "whipsaw" on Thursday putting bulls out of business. The news about cancelled December tariffs is just a part of the deal. Markets need more details as according to Fox Business correspondent Edward Lawrence (read his last tweets) there are no specific commitments from China on agro purchases (only verbal assertions) as well as request from China side to not make the language of the agreement PUBLIC. WTF? Was the Gold tempted to move dramatically lower based on wrong assumptions? We'll know today as the China is set to break silence holding press conference at 10PM. Watch this time and watch the Gold as the showdown is very close. It's not the end of the show. And it's HIGHLY UNLIKELY that gold will remain unmoved so be ready for the sweeping move. I allow myself to assume that the deal won't happen again and escalation is inevitable because in the course of trade talks the level of tensions was high and just in a couple of days before the deadline there happened a breakthrough? Can you believe that? I can't so go long Gold because imo its best move in current state of things. Trade setup: Buy Gold at current price: TP: 1490 SL 1459 Play small lots to make sure your equity will survive volatility. Good luck!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by PipVision
LOONIE Likely to Test 1.31600 Level After Trendline Break!Hello Viewers, this is an instant trade signal! Therefore, please have a look at the main chart for the following vital trade details: • ENTRY POINT • STOP LOSS • TAKE PROFIT • RISK TO REWARD The setup may look simple but I can assure you it is NOT. There are various in depth technical and fundamental analysis incorporated behind the execution. I would very much love to explain these two aspects here but doing that would consume ample amount of time which could affect the appropriate entry point behind this trade! So, to keep it simple the main chart just displays the simplified technical view of this trade. My way of performing technical analysis basically starts by breaking down the monthly Timeframe down until the One Hour charts. The following are the aspects I focus most on when performing technical analysis: • Draw Support & Resistance through key common psychological levels on M & W Charts. This helps me to see where the price might stall or breakout. • Draw Trendlines to determine the dynamic support and resistance levels present on the charts. This helps me to determine where the price might stall and most importantly help determine the path of least resistance behind the active trade. • I also tend to use EMA 50 on all the Timeframes. This EMA 50 is proficiently proven to act as dynamic support and resistance and is vital behind all my analysis. • Lastly, I tend to use classic pivot levels to determine my entry, stop loss and take profit levels. The combination of this and all of the above helps me determine the precise and likely trade targets behind the setup. Another aspect of my way of analysis is reading a lot of news to determine the fundamental aspects affecting any trade. After the technical analysis is performed, I tend to match if the fundamental aspect really supports my technical analysis. Therefore, as you could see, putting all my thoughts here would surely take up a lot of time which could make the price drift away from the entry price thus affecting the Risk to reward ratio. I understand it is vital for many of you to know the details behind this trade setup, and so if you are interested you could send me message and I will try to share most of what I can! The Above words are just template I use in all my trades. Shall there be any updates I will provide them here. Thank you
Short
by FX618Analysis
$0 commissions are a scamWe have signals of recession with inverted yield curves. Our president is being considered for impeachment. Our largest employee base (China) and us are not getting along and I do not think a trade deal will every come of these talks. Greedy people want you to buy artificially inflated stocks at $0 commission. I appreciate how much they think they can take us for granted. We are in the information age, we know what is going on and what you are trying to do to us. We will not stand for this corruption. I recommend using the CICO Report in the public indicators on Tradingview. CICO measures new money into and out of the market you are watching. CICO does not consider the manipulated emotions of trade deals and impeachment. CICO uses logic. Ignore the noise of the 1% and watch their actions. CICO shows how much money is leaving or entering the market and is a much better representation to the market than somebody's expert opinion.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Johnny_Nickles
AUSSIE Has Bottomed! For Now Atleast. Might Aim For 0.69500 Have a look at the snapshot above for AUDUSD weekly TF. It shows the support and resistance levels represented by red horizontal lines. At the moment the price HIT 0.67000 level and is bouncing around near that level, suggesting a BOTTOM or The support has been respected (well at least for now). The main chart, shows AUDUSD on daily TF where as you can see the daily candles have started to form a range. If this range gets broken the price would aim for daily 50 EMA. Now for this to happen we need the daily candle to breakout and close above the range (note: 4hr candle would provide an early signal but there are high chances that it may be a fakeout!). After the breakout happens and gets confirmed we can opt to take this pair LONG and target the daily 50 EMA. However trading such a volatile pair on daily TF is risky as it would trigger the SL or TP quickly due to unexpected news in the current fundamental market. Therefore sticking to the weekly TF is the best option and safest based on the current market situation. For those of you who are eager to take this trade on daily TF to target the DAILY EMA, please exercise caution and do it at your own risk! Now getting back to the technical picture, we need to see the daily candle close convincingly above the daily 50 EMA so we can opt to take this pair LONG towards the 0.695000 level where the descending line of the channel is present plus the WEEKLY 50 EMA. Fundamentally, we have seen the escalation of the tradewar which has heavy effects on the AUSSIE. However we have also seen that a china is ready to start talks again with the U.S giving some hopes to the market. Due to this reason i feel the AUSSIE can target 0.69500 and then from thereafter the free fall would begin again. Shall there be any updates about the trade entry, i will provide them in a new post. this just represents my analysis and outlook of this pair.
Long
by FX618Analysis
Elliot Wave Suggests Stock BreakoutThere is a nearly perfect Elliott Wave forming in stocks, with the corrective phase nearing completion. This indicates that we may be seeing the beginning of another bull impulse wave very soon. True, there is lots of doom and gloom over the trade deal, but Trump is known for wrecking the markets with his tweets, only to provide a resolution shortly after. Further, the US economy is booming (with respect to the rest of the world) and the Fed is still relatively dovish and a rate cut is still expected this year. A representative from China will be here Friday, so we may anticipate a breakthrough or at least steps in the right direction. The Kovach Momentum Indicators suggest that short term momentum is at lows, which may indicate that the pendulum is due to swing in the other direction. ES is encroaching upon the lower bound of the Kovach Reversals Indicator which again may suggest a bounce soon.
CME_MINI:ES2!Long
by quantguy
CADJPY Might Drop To 79.000 Should US-SINO Trade War Persists!The chart shows the weekly TF where the price is confined in a well respected triangle! The nearby red horizontal lines are the concrete support and resistance levels taken from the Monthly charts. Currently should the price break the triangle to the downside, we can expect the price to fall towards 79.000 level, On the flip side should the price break to the upside, the potential target here would be 87.000 and 91.500. However, the current fundamental picture suggest a break to the downside is more favorable as the trade war fears are back in action and risk OFF markets are dominating. In the current state of the market we can expect the safehaven FX pairs to gain traction such as the JPY! Moreover, OIL which is closely related to the CAD pair looses steam in risk OFF markets as the global slowdown fear persists!. So taking all this into consideration, should the triangle break to the downside we can probably expect it to HIT 79.000 level This just represents my analysis on this pair and should the trade criteria meet i will post the detail in a new post. cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
US-SINO Trade Deal Could Make AUDUSD Reach 0.72500. LONG TRADE!With the trade deal certain to be reached soon between the world's two largest economy, AUSSIE stands to benefit as CHINA usually purchase many raw materials from Australia and therefore we could see AUSSIE appreciate against many pairs. However in this case against the USD the gains might not be that high as compared to other safehaven FX pairs such as CHF and JPY. The weekly 50 EMA on the weekly chart is acting as a potential dynamic resistance and is preventing aussie from reaching new highs against the USD. In this trade setup, the long term channel has been broken and price retraced to daily 50 EMA. The primary target of 0.72500 lies where the weekly 50 EMA is present. The price is also building a constructive uptrend on the daily charts, where beneath the trendline we have our stop loss set. Below are the trade entry and exit information: Instant entry: at around 0.71300 level Stop loss: 0.70150 Take profit: 0.72500 RR: 1:1 Technical picture for this pair is pretty good however in the coming days it will be safe to monitor the fundamental aspects of this pair and see how it performs. shall there be any updates i will update in the thread below. please leave a LIKE if you find my ideas useful and follow me if you want to receive further trade ideas in the future. cheers
Long
by FX618Analysis
DO NOT BUY USDJPY Until the Wedge breaks! Initial Target 114.000This pair has broken all the vital levels technically, furthermore fundamentally its easily on the course of hitting the next resistance that lies at 114.00 level after which it might likely further target 118.00 level! However even though USDJPY seems it might HIT 114.00 level by next week or the week ahead, technically we are confined in a very concrete wedge that has been respected on a numerous occasions! Have a look at the main chart for weekly TF. The upper trendline of the wedge is clearly acting as potential resistance which needs to be broken (the weekly candle needs to close outside this trendline) for us to have technical confirmation to go LONG! Markets are currently on a RISK ON appetite mood and it will likely intensify in the coming weeks which would drag the yellow metal down and other safe haven pairs such as eurjpy and usdjpy. Its an excellent opportunity to take this trade LONG whilst the markets are in RISK ON mood. Have a look at the image above taken from the daily TF of this pair. H & S Patterns are reversal patterns however in some cases they act as consolidation patterns! Here we see an inverse H & S present on the DAILY TF, a break of the neckline would likely propel the price to break the LONG TERM trendline on weekly charts. After this is done we can wait for the price to retrace slightly before entering a LONG position. THIS JUST REPRESENTS MY ANALYSIS ON THIS PAIR AND SHALL THE CRITERIA MEET I WILL POST THE TRADE DETAILS IN A NEW POST. Please if you like my analysis give it a LIKE and FOLLOW me if you would like to receive more analysis. cheers
Long
by FX618Analysis