Tradeideas
USDJPY Remains Bullish Above 108I have been bullish over the last few days and continue to be so in the 108 to 108.47 interval. The price might reach 109 with the trend being bullish.
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GOLD vs. SILVER COMPARISON - SELLERS STILL ACTIVEHi traders, here's a quick comparison between silver and gold.
Silver has reached the upper channel resistance and is forming a bearish pinbar pattern, signaling sellers are joining the market again. The resistance aligns with the 61.8% Fib level which could provide additional selling pressure and lead to a continuation of the recent downtrend.
Gold to follow silver if silver drops? Let me know in the comments! Hit the "LIKE" button if you want to support our work, thanks!
HERE'S WHY GOLD IS STILL BEARISHYou may remember our H&S pattern idea in Gold a few days ago, and this is an update on that setup.
The yellow metal broke above the H&S neckline last week which didn't act as a resistance for the price.
However, the pattern is still valid in our eyes as the price is facing difficulties to break above the 61.8% Fib level, signaling a possible new lower high in the making.
Last three trading days formed strong pinbar patterns, each rejecting higher prices currently.
Since the H&S pattern is a reversal pattern, I still see a lower low and a possible lower high in the chart, which means we could get a strong down-move in the price from current levels, especially if the US dollar continues its bull-run.
EURUSD I believe moves more on dollar revaluation .Wow! What crazy short term market moves!!
That right on a day like today where the EU zone reported weaker economic numbers but seemingly the EUR held up in value until news / rumors / or presidential Tweet on social media, announced that the China trade war was relaxing just a bit. Pushing tariffs out which gave the impression of relaxing the hard line trade war stance and a heightened possibility for a trade war resolution...
And Poof! EUR weakens USD strengthens, and a lot of newer traders are asking themselves seeing the sudden moves “Now what?”
Understand what is most likely to happen if and when this trade war really ends. Today’s moves were nothing...
First let me say I don’t have all the answers. I’ve made most if not all the kind of mistakes you have made. I lost some money today on the EURGBP trade idea I posted, but also was on the right side of a win-fall calling the GBPCAD move right. What I’m saying is just my personal opinion, my thoughts, and observations, and how the EURUSD has moved this summertime period.
And it is my belief that the EURUSD should it be on the side of strengthening and moving up—that a move like that is mostly due to government dollar revaluation, and not due to economic outlooks.
On my daily chart you can see the EURUSD has been over all, in the long term grinding lower. Recently Trump tweeted how he wanted lower rates / lower dollar valuations, and Poof! EURUSD created a false breakdown—jumping into the 1.1200’s and there began stalling.
Economically what really changed in either economy? Both the US and the EUR zone were starting to show signs of a global slowdown.
What I’m seeing is the markets have carved out a channel showing the extremes of valuations within these times of nations attempting to use politics to manipulate currency values and keep economies going despite politically overspending.
So what does this have to do with trying to trade the EURUSD?
As traders we value trades as to where are the highest probabilities of a move happening. Up or down being in the center of a daily channel I’d say there is a 50% chance of it going up and a 50% chance of going down. No real trade probabilities. Of coarse as I explained already political Tweets can move markets. So as the EURUSD moves down towards the lower channel trend-line the odds of a bounce goes up. Why? Because president Trump needs a weaker dollar in an attempt to get a more favorable out come with the China trade disputes. And as the EURUSD goes down towards the lower trend-line, the probabilities of crazy tweets increases, and the current market outlook for the Fed cutting rates in the US more—should push the pair higher.
On the top end though what conditions could take place pushing the EURUSD towards 1.1350ish ?Certainly not in terms of true economic comparisons between the 2 economies should the EURUSD sustain that kind of valuations. Only a successful political policy of the USA government to weaken the dollar could in my view. But then who am I?
Being in the middle of the range and having a higher news risk to trading this pair, makes this one a bit more risky to trade for new traders.
If you are looking to trade it...
trade lighter and with smaller size.
Use tighter stops ( thus risking less),
shorten profits target zones ( don’t have unrealistic dreams of a favorable bigger move, yet be aware of a large unfavorable move that can happen with just a Tweet. )
Those should be the lessons of today’s market moves.
Good luck to all your trades.
In markets like today, you either make dust or you eat dust.
All the best.
EURUSD - Long - 50% to 61.8% retrace zone Hello all - DuncanForex here with another trade idea.
I am looking to re-enter EURUSD following the trade I took in the related post below.
Price is currently in the 50% to 61.8% Fibonacci zone of the retracement of the last leg higher and is cycling nicely
I want to get in early in the week so ideally price is not near my entry point for when NFP arrives on Friday. As I am bullish XXX USD pairs and bearish USD XXX pairs
With interest rates cuts hovering over USD for July - I expect that will ultimately increase USD weakness and for this pair send them higher.
Thanks for looking
Cheers
Duncan
Buying Gold at better risk/reward levels for long term targetOANDA:XAUUSD , FX:XAUUSD , FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
Monthly: The reverse head & shoulders formation has finally broken the neckline.
Daily: Previous reistance levels should now act as support including 1392, 1375 & 1367
Trade idea
Sell XAUUSD in front of $1375 & $1366
Stop loss at $1347
Target $1587
AUS200 breaking higher from bullish flagFX:AUS200
Weekly – Bullish channel with bearish divergence
Daily – Bullish flag and overbought
4H - Breaking higher from bullish flag - looking for re-test to set longs
Buy AUS200 at 6560. Stop 6520. Target 6660
Overbought and bearish divergence on longer term charts could stifle this move
Good luck!
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EURNZD shortHi traders,
this is my view on EURNZD.
After a doubletop and the RSI divergence we can go short for a good swing trade.
I´m already in this trade but it´s not to late to enjoy this easy pips.
My first target is 1.69 and the very optismistic target is over a long tim 1.66.
I wish you a good trading week.
Your Stefan Forex
EURAUD shortHi traders,
this is my view on EURAUD, I´m already in this trade after the dobletop on H4 chart.
After the EU elections we will see more bearish movement on EURO pairs.
The national parties will win a lot of seats at the EU pairlament and the politic sitiuation will
become confused after that.
So be patient and hold this trade for more pips to go down.
Have a good weekend.
Your Stefan Forex
GBPNZD Short 3 : 1 Win vs RiskHello all
I have shorted the GBP with NZD, based on USD weakening and NZDUSD becoming a long position, alongside AUD also getting stronger.
I expect XXX NZD, XXX AUD pairs to start to fall as per my EURZND trade ideas last week along with NZD XXX and AUD pairs starting to retrace in the short term.
I am looking for a 3 : 1 trade on this pair and dependent on price action when it hits support, I will review if i then trade it long again or follow it further lower .
As on the Monthly, is a loveypin bar for Oct 2018 - showing where price will ultimately go after a 50% to 61.8% retrace of that candle
Thanks for looking
Duncan
Duncanforex.com coming soon.