GOLD - New Long positions - 8 to 1??Hello all - DuncanForex here with another trade idea
Following the move higher on the 24th and 25th October, I am looking to enter again off Support.
Price is at a great level and I'm long at 1486
Lets see if this can get up to the previous highs from last week
Reason for entry is
Off Key Support level
RSI showing divergence on 1 hour chart
If it breaks the 1495 area - I will hold certainly to 1515 and may take partial profit and let it run
3 positions are open.
I will watch accordingly
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thanks for looking
Safe Trading
Duncan
Tradeplan
USD/CHF: KEY-Levels to trade the NON-FARM-PAYROLLSHey tradomaniacs,
welcome to a quick preparation for the NON-FARM-PAYROLLS.
Here you will see nice entrys to sell and buy.
Buy: 0,99534
Sell:0,98423
Targets, Stopp-Loss and Management is up to your trading-style and timeframe you trade. ;-)
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LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =)
Peace and good trades
Irasor
Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me.
Any questions? PM me. :-)
Non-Farm-Payrolls: YOUR Preparation and ENTRYS!#TRADEPLANHey tradomaniacs,
welcome to a quick video for your NON-FARM-PAYROLL preparation.
PRICE-LEVELS:
Statistical edge: Short
Short-Area at 1,10274
Long-Area at 1,10539 or 1,10879
NOTE THIS PLEASE:
Fundamentally, these NFP`s can be very tricky for the market to interpret!
The market is currently driven by news regarding to the tradewar, brexit and monetary policy of the FED.
The rally of this year, especially in the USA is just based on hope....this is why the market reacts with volatility whenever news about the tradewar appears.
So what is the market hoping for?
1. First of all, the market hopes that Trump and Xi Jinping will finally find a deal to end this tradewar.
This is why every tweet from Trump causes huge moves at the market.
The market seems to believe that the current globale cool-down is mainly caused by the tradewar and its consequences.
2. FED`s monetary policy
The market priced in further interest-rate-cuts by the FED in order to provide the market more liquidity (100% in september).
This would boost the economy and would be a play into Trumps hands because he could keep increase the pressure in terms of tradewar-talks.
As you can see: BAD NEWS can be GOOD NEWS and vice versa.
If we get to see a good result, the FED would have less reasons to cut the interest-rates -> Dollar could go up -> Hope of market for further rate-cuts is gone!
If the get to see a bad result, the FED would have more reasons to cut the interest-rates -> Dollar could go down -Y Hope of market for further rate-cuts confirmed!
The questions is: What will prevail?
The reality, in other words the economic datas? Or the hope?
If you newstrade, don`t get fooled by GREEN and RED digits here.
Bad news can be good and good news be bad. ;-)
More importantly I expect the market to wait for Jerome Powells speech after the NFP`s.
THE MARKET WANTS RATE-CUTS.
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LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =)
Peace and good trades
Irasor
Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me.
Any questions? PM me. :-)
BTC still bearish 4hr, What I'm watching for bottom indication!BTC is still in a 4hr downtrend as you can see on the chart displayed so no bullish entries can be considered by myself until a break of the 4hr high of $10,658 occurs. Until this happens I will remain bearish, but still cautious to the several indicators pointing out that a potential bottom is close.
Things to look out for are as follows:
1- RSI is approaching oversold conditions.
- if we were to reach oversold conditions we would see price action most likely around the 200EMA or macro trend line support zone further giving the likelihood of an oversold bounce strength.
2 - Declining volume on each leg down
- as you can see on the chart, we are witnessing less bear volume on each LH,LL formation. This could be indicating that bears are slowly losing momentum which will not favour them if we approach oversold RSI conditions with 200EMA and trend line support.
3- Daily uptrend still in tact
- Until $8,940 is lost, we are still in a daily uptrend
What am I watching for next:
The main two things that I will be keeping my eye on in the short term are price action and volume . An increase in bull volume with a break of the 4hr downtrend would create a bullish environment in my opinion and I will start positioning myself back into the market upon this occurring.
I hope that this chart has given a few of you a good idea of what I am looking at and possibly some good trade plans to use upon certain breakouts if they occur.
How to be a Successful Forex Trader Segment 3CBACK TESTING CONT.:
High probability set-ups
To be a consistently good trader, you must trade in a consistent manner.
As those of you who follow me and review my trade idea’s know, they are the same, almost boring. You see Type 1 (Shown above) or Type 2 trades all the time and they look all the same. EXACTLY!!! That is what you need.
If you have taken (either live or back tested), and documented, the same set-up numerous times, you can develop a statistical basis for the probability of that trade type’s success. IMHO, this is a critical element to achieving long term Success. I believe, if you know statistically, the probability of a trades success then you will be more confident in it and allow it to play out. Moreover, if you have a method that is not quite up to snuff, then get rid of it. I would urge you to be more selective in your trade process and only look for trades that you know, through your back-testing, have a high probability of success. This is Quality over quantity.
Stay green my Friends
Allen
** The Above chart is an example of how I document my trades-- every trade. I also use a spreadsheet to keep track of the data.
How to be a Successful Forex Trader Segment 3BBACK TESTING CONT.:
Picking up from my last Educational post, Segment A...
Pip Potential (PP) is a key component for me as it allows me to statistically determine how far a trade will run. In all my trades, I want, at the very least, a 3-1 risk to reward ratio (RRR). Basically I want to make $3 for every $1 I risk. Please understand and, this is very important to long term success, if you use a 3-1 RRR, or better, you can have a win rate of approximately 35% and still be profitable. YES, only 35% and still be Profitable!!!
That is how you stack the odds in your favor :)
Determining how far a trade is likely to run can be done a number of ways, you can use the daily ATR, pivot points, support/resistance or, as I do statistically. Any way you do it, you NEED to do it. Unfortunately, I know several traders who get into trades without thinking about where they are going to get out and that is problematic in the long term. (I always reference the long term because that is where you need to focus on, not 1 trade but rather 100 or 1000 or 10K trades...that is how your trading success will be determined).
All off the above can be revealed through back testing :)
If you think about your maximum draw down you can determine your stoploss, similarly, if you determine how far a trade will, probably, run you can determine your profit target. Combine the 2 and you have your Risk to reward ratio (RRR) and from that you can determine, if you should even take the trade. Personally, I never, ever, buy into resistance or sell into support. it may turn out to be a great trade but for me the Risk outweighs the reward.
I hope this helps and please comment and ask questions or even make suggestions as to a topic you would like me to address.
In my next post, I will cover how to determine High probability set-ups.
Allen
How to be a Succesful Forex Trader Segemnt 3ABACK TESTING:
Some traders find it helpful other do not.
Back-testing is, imho, the most critical part of trading
Back-testing the proper way, although arduous, provides incredibly valuable data. It is the Ditch digging of trading but well worth it.
I have come to embrace back testing and reviewing my trades religiously and in this day and age of automation, I have found it best, for me at least, to go back to 2am est (when I start trading and scroll forward bar by bar looking for my set-ups, my entries and my exits. In fact, I spend more time reviewing and planing my trades than I actually spend trading. While this method is not for everybody and it is time consuming, I firmly believe it is well worth it for the following reasons:
First and foremost, it builds confidence in your trading methodology. Seeing how your trades set-up, execute and finish while observing what the market does will allow you to stay in a trade when it is either taking heat or going your way because you will have "seen" it before.
Second, it will allow you to build a statistical base for your trades. For me the 2 most important pieces of data that I look for are 1) DD (drawdown) and 2) PP (Pip Potential). This has allowed me to determine how much of a stop I usually need (point of no return for a trade) and how far the trade will run.
DD, the Draw down, I find this information most useful as my position size is based on my stoploss. For example, I risk 2% of my capital per trade, so if my stoploss is 10 pips I can use a position size 10 times larger than if my stop was 100 pips. Obviously, the bigger position size the more bang for my Pips I am getting.
I hope this helps and please feel free to comment and ask questions,
I will continue this topic in my next post.
Allen
$XLNX Swing Trade PlanNice reversal from 200 SMA on daily, which is also coinside with the low of the big breakup candle on 24th June. Top end of the gap.
CGC downwards forecastJust putting out a call since I have been quiet for a bit. Congrats for anyone who opened a short position after the daily EQ break which I published a while ago.
Hope you can see why I am favouring a short position here. For those who follow me you will know why I ideally like to open positions in this sort of set up.
Yellow trend lines have been drawn up on the weekly time frame.
White trend lines drawn up on the daily.
Hope you like the chart.