Tradeplan
How to Develop a Trading MethodYou don’t have to develop your own methods but never just depend on learning somebody else's method as if all you had to do was follow instructions. You need to understand and make it your own. Even if you don’t want to design your methods, approach this as a learning exercise.
Let's structure how to go about developing a method. First start with a bassline and then work your way through the process.
1. Start with a repeatable market structure pattern. You can also use an indicator, trendline or whatever it is you relate to and can see
2. Understand the essence of your pattern and use this as a bassline to develop from
3. Structure objective trade rules around that pattern. How are you going to enter, place a stop, manage trade, and exit
4. Test it and learn.
Shane
Etherium sell side view in 1HR timeframeif there is CHOCH in eth then there is important BOS LEVEL if eth crosses it then we might see a huge down trend
For sell view
1. Chart pattern
2. SUPPORT turned into Resistance
3. Reversal from 50% retracement area
For buy
1. choch then little bos
sellers get trapped then running to 3080
##BTC also showing weakness
NZDUSD | 15m Trade Plan | Intraday15m current market condition : Took entire buy-side liquidity
During killzones:
Plan A : Take a short position after a 15m bearish confirmation.
Plan B : After inducement is taken, take a long position following a 15m bullish confirmation.
Plan C : Wait for the entire sell-side liquidity sweep, then take a long position based on a 15m bullish confirmation.
note : It's more likely that the marked demand zone will not be respected by the upcoming market session(s).
BOJ Raises Interest Rates - Monthly Outlook for USDJPYTaking a look at the monthly timeframe, if you look back in the past, whenever we had a strong bearish engulfing candle, there was usually a second bearish candle afterwards.
I believe there is a great chance that this pair will break below the green ascending trendline and eventually reach 130.
Some key comments made last night from the BoJ's Governor Ueda:
* If possible a US rate cut happens gradually, it could lead to strong a Yen.
* The weak Yen was not necessarily the biggest reason for the rate hike this time.
* Hard to tell when the next rate hike may be
* Does not have 0.50% policy rate in mind as a ceiling
* I don't believe the latest rate hike will trigger a strong brake on the economy.
Later this afternoon we will get the latest US monetary policy decision.
Furthermore, as we all know, the US equity market tends to have an inverted correlation with the Yen. This means if US stocks continue to sell off heading into the elections, we might see some additional strength with the Yen and thus push this pair even lower.
USDJPY - Top Down AnalysisStarting with the weekly timeframe, there's some quite noticable bearish Divergence with price action and RSI leading me to believe prices may continue further south.
Let's take a look at the daily timeframe.
On the daily timeframe, I have 2 bearish targets but first I need to see a bit of a pullback towards the descending level of resistance. Reason I'm looking for a bullish pullback is because RSI is currently in the oversold territory. We also have a BOJ interest rate decision this evening at 11:00pm EST.
Let's take a closer look at the 4 hour timeframe
On the 4 hr timeframe I'm waiting for a breakout of the current consolidating range. I'm hoping for a bullish breakout which will lead into my AOI (area of interest) to look for a shorting opportunity.
Lastly let's take a look at the 1 hour.
On the 1 hour timeframe, it's easier to see how much room to the upside I'm waiting for. If we reach the descending level of resistance, I'll monitor the bullish momentum to ensure I'm not entering a short when bulls are strong.
For that reason I have an alert set in place and now all I need to do is wait!
That's it - That's all
Trade Safe
AUDNZD - Bearish Breakout with 1:3 Setup on 4HrTaking a look at the 4h timeframe, we can see price action broke and held below the ascending trendline.
For me this indicates potential topping action. This pair is also heavily overbought on the daily timeframe so a correction at this point shouldn't be too much of a surprise.
Cooper prices also continue to get slammed which may contribute to some Aussie weakness.
Further more, we don't have any further major economic reports on the docket this week for either NZD or AUD which may cause this pair to correct. The Australian dollar does tend to have a correlation as a Risk-On currency with US equities. Today in the US session we saw both the Dow and SPX lose some of it's bullish momentum.
Trade Safe!
GBPUSD - Waiting for price to climb back upOn the daily timeframe, price action printed a strong bearish engulfing pattern and now I'm just waiting for a sniper shot entry. This means prices need to climb back up to my desired entry area for me to consider short selling this pair.
I have alerts in place - now just need to be patient and wait.
Trade Safe
Trade Plan - Start Scaling in ShortsTaking a look at the daily timeframe, RSI is in the overbought territory as we approach a descending level of resistance.
For this reason, the trade strategy here is to "Scale In" on the sell and fade this pair as it climbs here. Whenever using atechnique like this, I prefer not to use a stop loss and scale with little volume.
If you like this trade setup/strategy, be sure to like, comment and share.
Trade Safe
EURGBP Trade Setup following ECB Interest Rate Decision.Taking a look at the daily tf, price action closed above the last candle where we saw strong rejection following a retest of the descending support.
Today the ECB also left interest rates unchanged at 4.25%.
Even though this is a low risk to reward setup, I believe it has a good chance of becoming a winning trade.
GBPNZD - Potential Perfect StormTaking a look at RSI on the 1 hour timeframe, it's obvious we are getting some bearish divergence after a strong week long rally.
This strong bullish price action was attributed to the RBNZ interest rate decesion last week where interest rates were left unchanges at 5.50%
However, later today we get the latest CPI data from New Zealand followed by UK's CPI data a few hours later. Could this be a potential perfect storm where New Zealand will show a surprise to the upside followed by a surprise to the downside with the UK?
If that happens, I would expect this ascending support trendline to break opening the doors for a reversal.
Time will tell but early clues are beginning to develop on the 1 hour timeframe with RSI.
That's it - That's all
Trade Safe.
XAUUSD - Top Down AnalysisStarting with the weekly timeframe price action is currently testing the 50% retracement level from last week's swing high. This is known a common pivot point.
Taking a look at the daily chart below, price action remains elevated above the 2350 psychological support level. RSI also holds strong above 50.
Lastly on the 4 hour timeframe, the technical backdrop is similar to the daily.
== Fundamental Overview ==
Markets are pricing in a 77% probability of a rate cut by the Fed in September, per the FedWatch Tool from the CME Group. We anticipate another cut by December.
The headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) climbed by 206,000 in June, surpassing the market forecast for a 190,000 gain; but, April and May readings were dramatically lowered down by a combined 111,000. This resulted in a disappointing US labor market data on Friday, which confirmed a Fed rate decrease in September. As anticipated, average hourly earnings increased 3.9% annually, reaching a record low since the second quarter of 2021.
The US dollar and the yield on Treasury bonds could suffer as a result of Fed Chair Powell's remarks, which could support dovish Fed forecasts and push the price of gold to all-time highs beyond $2,400. Powell testifies before the Senate Banking Committee for two days, starting later on Tuesday and concluding on Wednesday before the House Financial Services Committee.
In addition, a number of other Fed policymakers are probably going to speak on Tuesday, which may influence gold price movement in the midst of a US schedule devoid of data.
Fears over China's gold demand and profit-taking caused the price of gold to fall on Monday. After gold failed at the $2,400 mark, traders turned to profit-taking, and some moved ahead of Powell's testimony and this week's US inflation data.
China possessed 72.80 million troy ounces of gold at the end of June, according to figures released by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) on Sunday. This amount remained constant from the end of May. The PBOC did not add gold to its reserves for the second consecutive month.
BTCUSD - Now Trades Above Descending ResistanceBitcoin regained some of it's loses on Friday following the US jobs report which points to a slowly cooling economy. As of writing this report, BTC is now trading above the 1 hour descending level of resistance. The question I have now is will this pair pullback up to 60k?
1:3 Risk to Reward BTCUSDOn the 5, 15, 30 and 1 hour timeframe, BTCUSD is showing signs of bottoming action with price action. RSI is also confirming as we head into the NFP. Should NFP disappoint analysts forecasts, I believe Bitcoin will reverse to the upside.
My trade idea on screen is a 1:3 risk to reward setup.
That's it - That's all
Trade Safe
BTCUSD - Potential Bottoming Action In my previous video I mentioned I was waiting for a strong bullish candle on the 15 min timeframe. I was alerted about that candle, and my short is closed.
== Previous Video ==
Now, on the 15, 30 and 1 hour timeframe we are getting clues of bottoming action so I am interested in getting in on a long trade here. I'm also adding room to add an extra long position if we go a bit lower.
That's it - That's all
Trade Safe