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NZDUSD | 15m Trade Plan | Intraday15m current market condition : Took entire buy-side liquidity During killzones: Plan A : Take a short position after a 15m bearish confirmation. Plan B : After inducement is taken, take a long position following a 15m bullish confirmation. Plan C : Wait for the entire sell-side liquidity sweep, then take a long position based on a 15m bullish confirmation. note : It's more likely that the marked demand zone will not be respected by the upcoming market session(s).
by arjTradingofficial
BOJ Raises Interest Rates - Monthly Outlook for USDJPYTaking a look at the monthly timeframe, if you look back in the past, whenever we had a strong bearish engulfing candle, there was usually a second bearish candle afterwards. I believe there is a great chance that this pair will break below the green ascending trendline and eventually reach 130. Some key comments made last night from the BoJ's Governor Ueda: * If possible a US rate cut happens gradually, it could lead to strong a Yen. * The weak Yen was not necessarily the biggest reason for the rate hike this time. * Hard to tell when the next rate hike may be * Does not have 0.50% policy rate in mind as a ceiling * I don't believe the latest rate hike will trigger a strong brake on the economy. Later this afternoon we will get the latest US monetary policy decision. Furthermore, as we all know, the US equity market tends to have an inverted correlation with the Yen. This means if US stocks continue to sell off heading into the elections, we might see some additional strength with the Yen and thus push this pair even lower.
Short
by Michael_Harding
USDJPY - Top Down AnalysisStarting with the weekly timeframe, there's some quite noticable bearish Divergence with price action and RSI leading me to believe prices may continue further south. Let's take a look at the daily timeframe. On the daily timeframe, I have 2 bearish targets but first I need to see a bit of a pullback towards the descending level of resistance. Reason I'm looking for a bullish pullback is because RSI is currently in the oversold territory. We also have a BOJ interest rate decision this evening at 11:00pm EST. Let's take a closer look at the 4 hour timeframe On the 4 hr timeframe I'm waiting for a breakout of the current consolidating range. I'm hoping for a bullish breakout which will lead into my AOI (area of interest) to look for a shorting opportunity. Lastly let's take a look at the 1 hour. On the 1 hour timeframe, it's easier to see how much room to the upside I'm waiting for. If we reach the descending level of resistance, I'll monitor the bullish momentum to ensure I'm not entering a short when bulls are strong. For that reason I have an alert set in place and now all I need to do is wait! That's it - That's all Trade Safe
Short
by Michael_Harding
AUDNZD - Bearish Breakout with 1:3 Setup on 4HrTaking a look at the 4h timeframe, we can see price action broke and held below the ascending trendline. For me this indicates potential topping action. This pair is also heavily overbought on the daily timeframe so a correction at this point shouldn't be too much of a surprise. Cooper prices also continue to get slammed which may contribute to some Aussie weakness. Further more, we don't have any further major economic reports on the docket this week for either NZD or AUD which may cause this pair to correct. The Australian dollar does tend to have a correlation as a Risk-On currency with US equities. Today in the US session we saw both the Dow and SPX lose some of it's bullish momentum. Trade Safe!
Short
by Michael_Harding
2
GBPNZD - Potential Perfect StormTaking a look at RSI on the 1 hour timeframe, it's obvious we are getting some bearish divergence after a strong week long rally. This strong bullish price action was attributed to the RBNZ interest rate decesion last week where interest rates were left unchanges at 5.50% However, later today we get the latest CPI data from New Zealand followed by UK's CPI data a few hours later. Could this be a potential perfect storm where New Zealand will show a surprise to the upside followed by a surprise to the downside with the UK? If that happens, I would expect this ascending support trendline to break opening the doors for a reversal. Time will tell but early clues are beginning to develop on the 1 hour timeframe with RSI. That's it - That's all Trade Safe.
Short
by Michael_Harding
XAUUSD - Top Down AnalysisStarting with the weekly timeframe price action is currently testing the 50% retracement level from last week's swing high. This is known a common pivot point. Taking a look at the daily chart below, price action remains elevated above the 2350 psychological support level. RSI also holds strong above 50. Lastly on the 4 hour timeframe, the technical backdrop is similar to the daily. == Fundamental Overview == Markets are pricing in a 77% probability of a rate cut by the Fed in September, per the FedWatch Tool from the CME Group. We anticipate another cut by December. The headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) climbed by 206,000 in June, surpassing the market forecast for a 190,000 gain; but, April and May readings were dramatically lowered down by a combined 111,000. This resulted in a disappointing US labor market data on Friday, which confirmed a Fed rate decrease in September. As anticipated, average hourly earnings increased 3.9% annually, reaching a record low since the second quarter of 2021. The US dollar and the yield on Treasury bonds could suffer as a result of Fed Chair Powell's remarks, which could support dovish Fed forecasts and push the price of gold to all-time highs beyond $2,400. Powell testifies before the Senate Banking Committee for two days, starting later on Tuesday and concluding on Wednesday before the House Financial Services Committee. In addition, a number of other Fed policymakers are probably going to speak on Tuesday, which may influence gold price movement in the midst of a US schedule devoid of data. Fears over China's gold demand and profit-taking caused the price of gold to fall on Monday. After gold failed at the $2,400 mark, traders turned to profit-taking, and some moved ahead of Powell's testimony and this week's US inflation data. China possessed 72.80 million troy ounces of gold at the end of June, according to figures released by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) on Sunday. This amount remained constant from the end of May. The PBOC did not add gold to its reserves for the second consecutive month.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Michael_Harding
Trade Plan for BTCUSDThis trade plan consists of 2 possible entries First entry begins now on the long side at 61,897 SL: 60,768 TP: 64,407 This is a 1:3 Risk to Reward Setup Now if we end up getting stopped out, I'll look to enter again on the long side at the 60,000 support handle with a stop loss below the lowest point onscreen and the target remaining at 64,407. Something to consider: If stopped out on first entry, double up on the second entry. Important Notes: To mitigrate risk, best to place an alert at the 60,000 handle rather than placing a pending buy limit order. This will allow us to monitor momentum to ensure the 60,000 area will remain supported.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Michael_Harding
1