Market Structure: Seeing In SwingsMarket Structure is simply making distinctions in price flow. its putting structure around what looks like chaos so that we have a way to measure and orient ourselves to any market in any timeframe. When I look at a market, I want to see objectively in swings.
Swings are the common thread that weaves through all markets and timeframes, providing a clear indication of who is in control at any given moment. They consist of distinct components and follow a process, forming the foundation of my trading strategies and setups.
Market Structure Definitions:
Confirmed Swing High/Low: A new high confirms a
swing low and a new low confirms a swing high.
Relative:
Major Swing: The largest reaction leg in your frame.
Minor Swing: the next largest reaction leg.
Balanced/Relative Swing: Same size reaction legs.
Expanded Swing: Reaction leg larger than previous reaction leg.
Components of a Swing:
Impulse Leg: The leg that takes out a previous high or low.
Reaction Leg: The retracement or pullback after the impulse leg.
Impulse Leg Shelf: a small range at the end of an impulse leg
Reaction Leg Shelf: A small range at the bottom of a reaction leg
Tradeplan
NZDCAD - Hoping for CAD WeaknessSo I actually expect to see CAD strength following the Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision on Wednesday, however it would be nice to see some weakness heading into the week.
For that reason, I'm not looking to go short just yet, but on my chart I have a small up arrow then down arrow. That's what I'm hoping will happen. If not and I miss the trade... oh well...
That's it - That's all
Trade Safe!
USDCAD Trade Idea with BOC This WednesdayI don't usually trade any central bank meeting but my technicals in this case are really suggesting some further downside pressure with this pair.
Technical Indications Include:
Evening Star Formation with the last 4 candles on daily
RSI Below 50
Fundamentals Include:
Inflation cooling off
Oil showing signs of a bottom
Equity market may spark additional risk-on sentiment which supports commodity currencies.
BTCUSD - Daily + Weekly ViewFirst thing I notice when looking at the daily chart, is the divergence with RSI and price action. Then I can also see we had a breakout below the ascending support.
Now when I take a look at the weekly chart, this is what I see.
The weekly timeframe definitely shows that the bullish momentum has stalled out. Indications of that include; RSI held below 70 along with a relatively strong bearish rejection candle.
This leaves me to now believe there is a chance of a correction perhaps down towards the 37k handle as pointed out on the chart.
For all of the above mentioned reasons, it doesn't make sense for me to hold my long positions and I'm looking for shorting opportunities.
That's it - That's all
Trade Safe
AUDUSD 5:1 R2R Trade IdeaWith everything going on, I'm looking to enter at 0.6585 with a stop loss just below the last 4hr candle's low. I do have a target set at 0.6678 giving this trade idea a 5:1 risk-2-reward.
Reasons why I like this trade include:
1. Economic Calendar forecasts this week are for negative US data
2. Technically on the 4hr, RSI closed above 50 following a hammer + bullish engulfing.
3. Last week equity market closed for the week at all time highs once again. I believe we may see some further bullish strength this week in equities which could add some strength to the risk-on currency pairs such as the AUD, CAD, & NZD .
Don't Miss This US30 ShortClear topping action is beginning to develop with RSI confirming as bearish momentum is strengthening.
With that said, I'm expecting a stock market correction after such a solid year of performance. Unless US30 makes additional fresh highs, I'm shorting as I expect to see profit taking happening in the days ahead.
That's it - That's all
Trade Safe
HD - Waiting for Retest of SupportWeekly timeframe shows that this stock is likely to pullback to my level of support highlighted on the chart.
I need that level to be tested before deciding on what to do with this stock. If we reach that level, I'll assess market conditions and momentum to determine if it's a low risk entry. There might be a chance of further declines as shown with my second arrow.
Weekly Chart Signal Trade idea- Multi-time frame AUDUSD Jan 04th 2024
1. The weekly swing is bearish on the weekly time frame. (See green 1 for strong market structure)
A. I expect price to move through my risk management strategy to move from 1 to the 2 on the weekly timeframe
2. Price is currently in the equilibrium between the weekly high strong (see green 3 & 4 for reference)
Price is more likely to move from strong market structure to weaker structure. This is how I based my phases of the market.
3. Price is currently in C.4 supply zone and is trending bullish for the Change of Trend (CHoCH)
4. Trade Ideas (Investor trade plan)
A. I could short trade with a risk entry at the short trade at Black 5
B. I Could also go to a lower time frame and wait for a confirmation entry for a higher probability trade
Multi-time Frame Analysis of GBPUSD Jan 4th 2023 - Daily Chart Analysis
1. The Daily swing range is from 1 & 2
(See Blue 1 & 2 for reference)
My prediction will move from 1 than to 2 but that is in a long term horizon
2. Current price action is between the D-Ibos high weak & the 4h-Swing High Weak.
3. Price has mitigated the equilibrium of the daily swing range
4. The trades off the supply and demand zones are lower probability tend to be lower probability
5. Price entered the daily phase B (see blue 3 for reference) and had a reaction causing a push down back to the EQ of the daily low strong (See 4 for reference)
6. Price is currently in the daily C.4 demand zone.
A. Price is bearish on the daily and 4h in between the daily high weak and daily low strong. If price switches to bullish by breaking the daily internal break of structure than I will look for longs off demand zone generated from the break.
B. If price breaks the daily low strong (blue 4 for reference) than I will switch to bearish set-ups (A.1)
US30 Simple 3:1 ScalpRSI on the 15 min timeframe is now back above 30 suggesting we may see a short-term bottom. With that said, I mapped out a 3.62:1 R2R setup.
Important note when taking my trading recommendations is to always move SL to breakeven once in profit by 25 points with the US30 and then apply a trailing SL to the target.
This helps manage to manage risk in the event price-action doesn't reach the desired target.
Feel free to send me a DM if you need assistance.
== COMMENT == LIKE == SHARE ==
AU200 3:1 R2R Sell SetupFirst thing to note is that we have a bearish breakout below the ascending trendline on the 1hour timeframe. Additional RSI is suggesting selling pressure with the bearish divergence.
== Game Plan ==
Wait for a pullback as outlined on the chart to enter a sell targeting a 3:1 risk to reward.
AUDCHF - Trade PlanTaking into account today's strength with the Swiss Franc, I'm expecting further bearish continuation with this pair. But before going short, I would like to see a pullback roughly to the 50% retracement area of today's bearish candle.
Should price action pullback to my area of interest (AOI) I'll go short with stops above yesterday's high with targets down towards the 0.57 handle.
GBPAUD - 3:1 R2R Trade Plan Today's daily candle closed slightly above yesterday's high while maintaining RSI divergence. With that said, I do believe we may see a bounce from these lows.
Trade Idea: Stops below yesterday's low with targets around the 50-61.8% retracement area of this most recent bearish leg.
EURUSD - RSI Divergence with Bullish BreakoutDaily timeframe, PA broke above 2 levels of resistance last week and now looks to stall out with RSI providing information on lack of bullish momentum.
For now, I'm waiting to see my small green line on the chart get tested where I have an alert. Will PA break back below support which was previous resistance and will we test the 50% pullback area (small green line) to then add to the bullish continuation?
Time will tell, for now I just need PA to test the small green line for my next assessment on what to do or how to trade this.
That's it - That's all
Trade Safe