Bear Gang Ideal Scenario + Explanation So I'm seeing a lot of people freak out about the rally today, and I'm here to inform you that it is what it is - a load of bull.
Trade talks aren't going anywhere. Xi Ping is trying to buy some time with the US so he can take care of the crisis that is Hong Kong. This supposed claim of "willingness to cooperate" is a trap and Trump won't fall for it.
From Sun Tzu's Art of War: “All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when we are able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must appear inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.”
From Trump's Art of the Deal: “I've read hundreds of books about China over the decades. I know the Chinese. I've made a lot of money with the Chinese. I understand the Chinese mind.”
Needless to say, he's not going to retract Sunday's tariffs anytime soon, and China moved too late to even make him consider going soft on them. This entire rally was built on the hopes that trade talks were improving, but it was a cringey display of blissful ignorance from investors who I thought knew better - and seemed to have the same attitude as someone whose laughter is filled with desperation. I'm not buying it. Bears got slaughtered today but will get their just desserts and then some in the coming week or so. The lack of confidence in which way the market is going makes it all the easier to see the way of the bear, even if just for a little while. If you still need help doing so, just take a look at recent events around the world.
- U.S. GDP Growth slowed and was revised to cut down to 2.0% rather than 2.8%
- Jobless claims rose to >+200k
- Money Market Accounts' AUM rose to an all time high not seen since the crash of '08-'09
- Morgan Stanley revised 2020 outlook, citing dampening economic indicators and negative growth outlook due to trade war
- 30-year treasury bonds fell to all time low
- Treasury secretary and other fed agents have begun considering an issuance of 100-year bond notes, along with several countries in Europe and Southeast Asia
- Inverted Yield Curve Steepens
- Argentina is on the verge of defaulting on its debt
- Worst unemployment rates in India since 2008, Consumer Loans getting crushed
- Swedish interest rates sinking as they consider 100 Year bonds as well
- Sweden Confidence Levels drop to fourth month
- Norway Credit Growth Drops to Lowest in 23 Years
- Italian economy is getting ravaged by political chaos and bonds defaulting across the board
- Iran Intensifying Missile Efforts Amidst Talks with Britain, France, and Germany (Potential War??)
- UK is falling apart because of Boris Johnson suspending parliament and causing overall chaos not just in politics but the economy as well, Brexit crushing every investor in its path
- Japan Cuts Buying of Benchmark Bonds as Yields sink to Record Low
- Chinese unemployment, riots, and social credit system are burning through whats left of their economy, US tariffs popping the bubble of trade that their economy has relied upon
- South Korea Industrial Production down -3.2% YoY
- Colombian Unemployment Rate Up 0.2%, from 10.7 to 10.9
- South Africa's stock market sees worst August since 1998
- Mexico's inflation potentially on the rise according to new reports as advisers move towards a more cautious monetary policy citing unstable equity markets
$SPY Puts seem to be the answer here. I'm invested in some a few weeks out as to give them a chance to price in the actual situation regarding trade talks and the global macro headwinds listed above. Regardless of your stance, we're in for a very, VERY bumpy ride.
