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Bitcoin price closes in on $40K,Traders expect BTC to flip $40,000 back to support soon, but derivatives metrics signal that a different outcome could occur. The Bitcoin (BTC) daily price chart seems to be making a steady recovery pattern, but some concerning indicators are coming from derivatives markets. At the moment, the futures and options markets are showing a lack of confidence from Bitcoin pro traders, but there's a positive spin to the data. The road to $40,000 seems uncomfortably predictable, and cryptocurrency traders usually call it "manipulation" when such price movements happen. Regardless of the rationale behind Bitcoin's price recovery, investors should analyze derivatives markets to understand how whales, market makers and arbitrage desks are positioned. While retail traders' favorite instrument is the perpetual contract (inverse swaps), pro traders often opt for fixed-calendar futures and options. Although they are more complicated to trade, these derivatives offer more complex strategies. Liquidations are behind us, but so is the route to $69,000 Data shows that there hasn't been a relevant futures contract liquidation since Jan. 23. When leverage long (buyers) have their positions terminated, it accelerates the price correction, because derivatives exchanges need to sell those futures at market prices. Notice how the last “big” forced position termination on longs was $290 million on Jan. 23. This partially explains why Bitcoin’s recovery was relatively tranquil over the past week. Still, the market is nowhere near being out of the water, considering that BTC is currently trading 44% below the $69,000 all-time high. The Bitcoin futures annualized premium should run between 5% to 12% to compensate traders for "locking in" the money for two to three months until the contract expiry. Levels below 5% are extremely bearish, while the numbers above 12% indicate bullishness. The above chart shows that this metric dipped below 5% on Jan. 21 and hasn't yet shown signs of confidence from pro traders. So the big question is: Is the glass half full? For example, if Bitcoin breaks the $42,000 resistance, some traders will likely be caught off guard, so there's additional buying activity because no one wants to be left behind. Bitcoin futures markets are neutral, but options traders are skeptical Currently, it’s a bit difficult to discern a direction in the market, but the 25% delta skew is a telling sign whenever arbitrage desks and market makers overcharge for upside or downside protection. If traders fear a Bitcoin price crash, the skew indicator will move above 10%. On the other hand, generalized excitement reflects a negative 10% skew. As displayed above, we've been near 10% for almost a week despite the 18% BTC price recovery since the $33,000 bottom. The options skew data shows that pro traders are still pricing higher odds for a market crash. Despite the not-so-positive indicator from Bitcoin options, these arbitrage desks and market makers will be forced to reverse bearish positions once the price breaks $42,000. However, considering that the futures premium did not show signs of desperation even as the market crashed 52% from the all-time high, the data provides a constructive view. The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by monicaagrizzi9
BITCOIN (BTCUSDT) QUICK TA SCENARIO...Let the image speak for yourself... ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ If you enjoyed this post and agree with me, a like and a sub would be very nice : ) If you have any other ideas or simply disagree, manifest yourself in the comments ⬇️⬇️⬇️ Stay updated for more content Have a nice Day : ) Bye! -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Short
by xtekky
Market structure, learn how to easiy identify market condition.Market structures also referred to as market conditions are the simplest form of price movement in the market.  Market structure is a simple and basic form of how price action occurs in the market.  Price action in the market is always in one of these four market structures. - Accelerating Phase - Distribution Phase - Decelerating Phase - Accumulation Phase Accelerating Phase: This is the upward trending phase of the market, it is often characterized by a series of higher highs and higher lows.  This phase of market structure is where bulls are said to be in control of the market. Distribution Phase: The distribution phase occurs after a rise in price as the traders who bought at the beginning of the trends begins to sell at a profit and more people are FOMOing into the market the market then enters a range.  It is a ranging market after a downtrend. At this phase of the market, there seems to be a balance of power between the bulls and bears until either support or resistance level is broken. Decelerating Phase: What goes up must come down. Decelerating phase is the downward trending phase of the market and this phase of the market structure is where bears are said to be in control of the market. It is often characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows. Accumulation Phase: This phase of market structure precedes the Accelerating Phase. It is a ranging market after a downtrend.  This phase is where smart money managers and experienced traders begin to buy. At this phase, the general market sentiment is still bearish. In Conclusion Although not always obvious, market structure plays out in all markets. Smart investors who recognize the different parts of a market structure are more able to take advantage of them to profit. - Zoom in your chart screen to -30%. - Train your reticular activating system to easily identify these structures in the market.
Education
by KhingKhaleb
1
A Traders Psych Evaluation 1. Asides money, why else do you trade? 2. When you’re not trading, what do you do with your free time? 3. If you bagged a million dollars in trading today… what’s your first step? 4. Your favorite trading book—if any? 5. Who do you admire most in trading? 6. What are you most afraid of in trading? 7. If you could change everything about your trading career—what would it be and why? 8. What subject in school made the most impact in you? 9. If you died today, what do you wish to be remembered for? 10. Are you addicted to trading? 11. What’s the most defining moment of your trading career? 12. Your dream destination? 13. Your favorite trading memory? 14. What do you feel most proud of? 15. Who introduced you to trading? 16. What’s your worst/best childhood memory? 17. If you had a chance to do-over in life… what would you do differently? 18. What’s your strongest quality? 19. Most embarrassing thing you’ve done in trading? 20. What’s a skill in trading you wish to learn and why?
OANDA:NAS100USDEducation
by lazyluchi
Will Etherium break falling channel ?????ETH price currently moving in a rising channel in short time ................. Overall price moving in falling channel and this channel's middle line acting as a resistance and price rejected from it many times........... local support :-3780-3770............... Major support :- falling channel's lower line............. Local resistance :- middle line of the falling channel........... major resistance :- upper line of the falling channel............. #DYOR #NFA
Long
by CYPTO_SAM
UK100 BREAKTHROUGH AND RETEST THE RESISTANCEThe FTSE 100 index is well placed to extend its recent run higher ahead of the Bank of England’s decision on UK interest rates next Thursday. Once seen as almost certain, a rate hike has become less likely because of the spread of the coronavirus Omicron variant. That’s positive for UK stocks even though the Government has already responded by tightening the pandemic rules in England. Masks will now have to be worn in most indoor public places and employees have been told to work from home if they can. The UK FTSE 100 index traded lower on Monday and touch and retest the broken resistance line from December 6th of the downtrend formed from drawn from the high of November 12th. That said, the slide was paused near the 7220.00 level, still above the prior downside resistance line. As long as the index is trading and stopped on that level and in combination with that the traders sentiment is net long, it would be interesting to see how the price will react in the following days. In order to start examining whether the outlook has darkened further, the experts would like to see a clear dip below 7180.00, support marked by the inside swing, and 61.8Fibo correction. The price will already be below the aforementioned downside line and the bears may get encouraged to push the action towards. If they are not willing to stop there, then we could see them pushing towards the low around 7115.00 or lower to 38.2Fibo correction around 7050.00 or lower to the strong support and psychological level around 7000.00. On the upside, the experts would like to see a clear rebound back from the current levels before start examining whether the bulls have gained full control again. This will take the index above the upside line and could aim for the 7370.00 or 7397.00 zones. Another break, above 7397, could see scope for extensions towards the peak of February 21st, 2020, at around 7460. Looking at our oscillator indicators we have to notice that MACD and RSI are very close to the oversold zone but also noted big short volume bars at the end of the year. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carry a high-risk level. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, needs, and trading signals. Therefore, it cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
U
by legacyFXofficial
2
AUDJPY | Short trade idea agains trendAUDJPY has bullish bias now in D1 and seems to go a correction. While many traders said "you must trade with the trend", and hinder to trade against a trend. But, I have a trade counter trend if you like if you wanna ride this correction movement in D1. What you have to make sure is the intraday trend is supporting your trade and we use Ichimoku by this time. So, here is the deal. If price can breakout support 84.884, then we can going to short with target 82.065. Sounds good? Beware of the risk by the way. Happy trading.
Short
by Jee_D
EURUSD | Intra Day Shorts?EURUSD shorts that unfolded earlier today around 1.16587, It presented as a clear trade setup (H&S) as most of us know about this pattern but very few understand the technicals behind it and how it should be traded, I personally didn't take this trade as i was not trading during this time and mostly focus on (London Open) but thought I'll share this anyways and hopefully it might help someone here in their (Trading Journey) so back to the technicals... Entry level would be off the right shoulder that's lined up with our 61.80% fibonacci level and stops can be placed above previous candle closure and 78.50% fibonacci level, any price break above this will indicate a trend reversal and to manage our trade, we would want to be stopped out before the massive move happens. So stops would need to be placed above this level and traded at 1% risk or lower, I personally take all my trades at 0.25% risk regardless how right i am with trading, my main focus in trading is capital protection and it should be yours too. Exit levels on this will be the -23.00 | -61.80% fibonacci. This is one of many profitable setups that can be traded, however - my best advice is to find one setup and stick with that daily, weekly. I will start posting more content and trade idea's here later this week. I'm enjoying it. Kind Regards.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn14323489