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Understanding Bitcoin Trend. Past, present and future.Hoping to keep this fairly simple. Firstly, I'm posting this as a direct response to poster MrRenev's OP in which he mentioned cryptocurrencies, bitcoin, ICOs etc should be illegal. It is obvious in his post that he's trying to create FUD pretty desperately, because he mentions things like 'crypto trading is not halal/kosher' etc. among many other things. The post is excruciatingly long, and I'm sure many over here have read it, hopefully with an open mind, but the bashing he received is pretty well deserved, not only because of his super obvious social manipulation tactics, but also because his comments and rebuttals are beyond offensive (like he offered to buy me out in the future to wipe him after he takes a dump and keep me as a servant or something along those lines). Look, you can write your opinion, you can do your TA, some people do it for fun, some people do it to enhance their own ability (the more you teach, the better YOU become), and some people do it because they want themselves as well as others to succeed. You have a very small percentage of people who are desperate like MrRenev. Maybe they don't have an educational background in finance, economics, commerce, etc. Maybe they started trading after watching some videos on Youtube, and picked up some very good knowledge, however became overconfident (or thought they are smarter than they actually are) and lost a lot of money. I myself have made money, I've lost money. However anything I've lost, I've taken full responsibility for it. Yes market manipulations exist. Yes there are things beyond our control. But our decisions are ours, if we leveraged 100x and lost, we should take full responsibility of it. There's responsible, calculated trading, and there's trading that's basically gambling. So if you gamble and lose, don't try to use social manipulation to get back what you lost. That's just sleazy. Anyways, since MrRenev commented would you trust established banks, organizations, monetary systems in place or (according to him) new, up and coming things like Bitcoin or Cryptocurrency, I'd like to make the same kind of COUNTER-APPEAL. Would you trust a no-name, no-face, disrespectful troll like MrRenev, who has no educational/career background disclosed or verified, or someone who actually has a degree in Economics from a renowned university when it comes to anything related to Economics? Okay intro out, now back to the analysis of Bitcoin. I'm using Coinbase as a base, but you can use the same concept overall. A. Trends and Cycles: Most of us are aware of economic cycles. So the same is the case with BTC. If you look at the graph above you'll notice that BTC technically went through accumulation/expansion period between 2015 and 2017. I know some of you might disagree and point out bull/bear markets during these periods, and you are correct if you want to break down everything in shorter periods. I'm looking at the bigger picture however, so the smaller bull/bear market periods do fit into the grander scheme of things. Here are my reasons: 1. Historic Indicators: I'm using RSI, MFI, ChandeMO in conjunction with the Weekly Candles. What do we see here? Take a look at between May 2015 and Dec 2017. Around May 2015, RSI levels started @ <38 and didn't peak 80+ levels until Jun 2016. During this time, the average RSI (just approximating it eye-balling at the RSI graph) was around 45 I would say. This lasted for 1 year. Now starting in June 2016 until Dec 2017, RSI levels maintained an average level of around 70, and bounced off lows of approximately 55 a few times. Peaked 80 or above levels about 12 times during this period. And that's just RSI. MFI levels maintained around 60 during the first phase and around 78 during the second (uptrend) phase. Overall around 70 I think. Chande Momentum Oscillator is such a good tool to understand market momentum but not always used but it is one of the most reliable. What does ChandeMO show? CONSISTENTLY above the ZERO line, with a couple outliers where momentum shifted to below zero (bearish). Common things like MACD and Awesome Oscillator paints a simpler but similar picture. Now let's switch to post Dec 2017 until Dec 2018. What do we see? RSI plummets, from the peak of 90 all the way down to 29 levels. During this period, RSI maintained a DECLINING average of 50, however keep in mind, this was a DECLINING AVERAGE, so bearish trend is definitely confirmed. What about MFI? All the "smart money" coming in? Averaged around a paltry 40. Most of all, Chande MO, shows us just how deep the bear market was. Went below the ZERO line, and basically maintained a -40 trendline during this entire period. Awesome Oscillator however tells us that bearish divergence is decreasing. That's because the time it is taking to get back to the zero line and make a hill over the zero line is decreasing as you can see. In fact for the first time since April 2018, AO has painted bars over the zero line on the weekly candles (the past couple weeks). MACD is looking good as well. We've broken out of these negative zones since turn of the year. RSI has risen from that low all the way to 71 currently, and you see a gradual increase. MFI paints the same picture, with more and more money coming in, and MFI levels increasing from around 20 to 90+ currently. ChandeMO has moved over the zero line since Jan 2019 and maintaining. There will be pullbacks, and we would hope for more of the same as was in the past because that is a sign of a healthy (relative) market. Ideally we would like RSI, MFI to maintain between 50 and 60 levels over the next year or so, and have a few bursts towards the top a few times. We would want ChandeMO to maintain a trendline over zero consistently. 2. The Future: So what does this tell us for the future. If Fundamentals remain constant or get positive boosts, then this accumulation/uptrend will continue. Just take a look at how many days it took for the Accumulation/Uptrend phase to materialize historically between May 2015 and Dec 2017... 900+ days. Compared to that, the bear trend (assuming it is over, I'll address the assumption in the next few lines) lasted a measly 364 days. And that IS A GOOD THING! Why? That tells us there are investors, people, who are interested in BTC. BTC isn't dying off, and neither are legitimate cryptocurrencies with legit uses. Otherwise it would've continued the fall, momentum wouldn't have changed, and you'd have seen lower highs. That isn't what we're seeing. So everything is looking good, and that's really great news for continued interest in BTC, Cryptocurrencies, Blockchain tech, etc. As long as fundamentals hold, there's a bright future for electronic currency/credit. Look we don't know what tomorrow will bring for sure. As I'm typing this I might just drop dead. The world might spontaneously blow up into a nuclear warzone. Anything can happen, positive or negative. At the end of the day, we have our biases and our own interests. Ofcourse I'm invested in BTC and Cryptocurrencies. I left my job so I can do this and be a free man and live my life and not work a 9-5 job for the next 30-40 years. BUT I'm not blind and I'm not stupid. I wouldn't get into this if I didn't understand the historic trends. I wouldn't get into this if I didn't have a solid background in Economics and Finances. And the risks I am taking, are calculated. I've made mistakes and lost (noob mistakes like buying FET.AI during the first hour of being launched, and I've not made that mistake again). And that's how you can make it here. If you make a mistake, take a good hard look at yourself and ask some very important questions. Did you lose because you lack the technical know-how or was it because of lack of experience? Are you an avid reader who will spend hours reading related news/posts every single day? Do you learn from your mistakes or do you always go by gut-feelings? Do you want to risk losing 200% of your investment (when you gamble to earn the same within a short period of time) or do you want to take small profits like 2%, 5%, 10% on a daily basis and understand exponential growth? Don't let others instill fear in you and don't let others exploit you by creating false sense of hope. Find the balance, read, read, read. Knowledge is power. Keep a level head, understand markets and global economies and whenever you take risks, take calculated risks so you can recover. Be a good human being, help yourself and others. Don't be like MrRenev. Good luck to everyone and I hope the future is bright for all of us (even MrRenev).
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by rhasan1987
2
Trading PsychologyMany traders seek consistency through the idea of mastering the markets. They consider them to be logical and therefore can be figured out. They believe with more knowledge of markets and how they operate, they will eventually make a consistent return. And so they continue searching in the markets for a reliable edge, or outside the market for a leader or guru to show them the way. They see their emotions as an enemy; something standing in their way of success, and so attempt to remove them completely; which is impossible. This idea, that the answer is out there somewhere, is a false belief. Most traders never stop to think that perhaps what they are seeking is already within themselves, right here. That all they actually need is to stop searching, and look within. In order to succeed long term you must first understand your self and the relationship between yourself and the market. Your emotions, thoughts, and perception of the market, and how these relate to actions taken in the market place. If you do not believe these are directly connected with your actions and therefore performance, you will likely struggle to maintain a consistent performance. Rather than viewing your emotions as an enemy, learn to use them to your advantage. Learn to understand the circle or cycle between you and the market.
by tradersmentality
US30 SHORTAs you can see we previously saw price break our zones which hit our TP. Higher prices are being rejected we now are looking for the pullback. lets see how the week ahead is going to look as we prepare a sell with the look at the market dropping down towards the 26000 level.. its a new week so lets catch some pips because Everyday is Money Day! please follow our social platforms and let me know what you think about our set ups posted!> Instagram : Vellly Business instagram : Learnitempire Youtube Channel : Learnitempire
OANDA:US30USDShort
by LitCap-Vell
Possible GBP/USD Short position SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY Chart time frame - H4 Timeframe - 1-2 Days Actions on - A – Activating Event Currency Pair creating a Double Top . B – Beliefs Market will be rejected at @1.2990 level and move towards the first Target 1 level @ 1.2835 FX:GBPUSD Trade Management Entered @ Still waiting for confirmation. Stop Loss @ Still waiting for confirmation. Target 1 @ 1.2835 Risk/Reward @ 2:5 Happy trading. Will let you know closer to the time if or when executed:) Follow your Trading plan, remain disciplined and keep learning !! Please Follow, Like,Comment & Follow Thank you for your support :) This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
Short
by SMPTrader
Bitcoin 82% drop and at-least 45% more to go!!SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY Bitcoin is crashing and continues on doing the same !! BITFINEX:BTCUSD is down by more than 82% this year!!. We are looking for another significant drop to the @2000 level, thats another 45% wow! From my experience stay on the sidelines or short sell!! Follow your Trading plan, remained disciplined and keep learning !! Please Follow, Like,Comment & Follow Thank you for your support :) This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only! Update idea
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by SMPTrader
2
STELLAR [XLMBTC] Looks ready for another Failed Rally!Hello, PLEASE SUPPORT CHART WITH LIKES AND COMMENTS ;) This thing called Stellar LUMEN (XLM, STR) well known project with huge community and support. It has a HardFork at 9 December (from another dev-team) But what behind all of this? -Whales and big money, inside traders and people related to the project... SO how to benefit from it for regular traders and investors? -You need to know simple market models, market sentiments and to be cold minded person Today i want to share with you simple market model called Wyckoff Distribution. It appears in different timeframes, and located at the tops. Check this schematics: i0.wp.com So, looks like we are going into failed rally stage, so be careful with your portfolio, I suggest to avoid such risky trades like XLM (STR) Good luck
by ArShevelev
16
IBOV tem força para continuar subindo?Mesmo após Jair Bolsonaro ter sido definido como o novo presidente, os futuros ministros já terem sido divulgados e alguns assuntos importantes como a reforma da previdência voltarem a tona, será que a Bovespa tem folego para continuar subindo ou chegou a hora de realizar os lucros? Como pode ser visto no gráfico, apesar de ter perdido a tendência de alta, ainda não está claro se está se iniciando uma nova tendência - de baixa, tendo em vista que temos um suporte a ser rompido para que isso seja de fato confirmado.
BMFBOVESPA:IBOV
by mauricio_o_m
2
BITCOIN ($BTC): SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLEHi Guys, BTC's upward trend hasn't started yet and BTC remains in downtrend. Currently, BTC is moving inside "Symmetrical Triangle". Generally, this patern is difficult to predict. But in most cases "Symmetrical Triangle" is continuation pattern. RSI-Stoch also indicates, that the new uptrend hasn't started yet. So, I likely expect next drop down to $3200 - $3000 zone. Supports: $3600-$3500 & $3200-$3500. Resistance: $4000-$4200 & $4500-$4600. This bearish idea will be invalidated if BTC close above $4100 daily. Please hit that "like" button, follow me or leave your comments. Thank You!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by AsBobbyDigital
1
USD/CAD , you have to be risky for a biscuitHi traders , the hard trade , to complicate for me but i will risk it when the market opens and be like snake to every forex floor , -->weekly : above MA200 uptrend obviously -->daily: above MA200 but its a candle they call it Shooting Star but i am not sure if it is , maybe a Master help us ;) (i see shooting star because the upper shadow is 2 times the body of the candle) my signal for that is SELL. --> the H4 is Hanging Man so for me is more sell signal but in the H1 we see a strong bullish candle , so we wait the confirmation , i need one more candle to tell me that is ...SELL! Resistance : 1.31468 Support: 1.29915 we aim for that support , but still is to risky for me . We aim for Monday , the usd will fall from the sky 100% . Stay Tuned , The Master
Short
by UnknownUnicorn3549910