Tradesetup
Why BTC hasn’t moved up recentlyBTC has been bobbing above and below this bearish triple crossover the past few months. What we see as consolidation is rather price getting stuck around these resistance levels.
The only reason why this would be occurring in my view, is due to the market makers having intention to allow this drop to play out.
The resistance is located at around 107,000 to 107,400 - watch this zone closely for a hold below / rejection and fast drop.
Scenario 1 marked with solid red line.
Scenario 2 marked with dotted red line.
Little update for y’all. Happy weekend trading.
SUI Is Ready To Run!Good Morning Trading Fam,
I'm putting out a quick trade setup here on SUI, a coin I am honestly a long-term hodl'er of. I believe this coin has an exciting future ahead of it with tremendous potential to change the blockchain landscape for the better.
But this post is for those of you interested in trading it.
We have a perfect setup here. Descending bullish triangle, which we are nearing the end of. Strong long-time support underneath us. And my proprietary indicator has given us a buy signal at the point of confluence of both of the above. I have set three targets for you. Obviously, the higher the target, the higher the risk. Trade accordingly and let me know in the comments how you did. It makes me happy to know my followers are successful in their trades.
Best,
Stew
GBP/USD Downtrend Wedge Breakout Setup – Bullish Target AheadThe GBP/USD pair is currently displaying a downtrend wedge pattern, a structure that typically signals a bullish reversal when confirmed. The pattern is formed by a descending resistance trendline (in red) and a gradually sloping support line (in green), converging to a point. Price has bounced off the wedge’s support multiple times while forming lower highs, creating pressure that often leads to a breakout.
As seen in the chart, the pair recently surged toward the upper resistance line and is now attempting to break above it. A successful breakout with bullish candle confirmation could lead to a strong move upward.
📈 Breakout Scenario
If the price manages to close above the resistance zone (~1.3490–1.3500), it would confirm the wedge breakout. Based on the height of the pattern, the projected breakout target is around 1.3692. This target is calculated by measuring the vertical height of the wedge and adding it to the breakout point. Confirmation of breakout should ideally include a retest of the broken resistance acting as new support.
📉 Rejection Scenario
However, if the breakout attempt fails and the price gets rejected again from the red resistance line, the pair could retest the wedge’s support area around 1.3360. A breakdown below the green zone would invalidate the bullish outlook and suggest continued bearish pressure.
⚙️ Strategy Tips
Buy Setup: Enter after breakout candle closes above 1.3500 with stop loss just below breakout zone.
Take Profit: Use the 1.3692 level as the primary target or scale out on the way up.
Confirmation: Always wait for breakout confirmation before entering; avoid false breakouts.
✅ Conclusion
This wedge breakout setup offers a bullish trading opportunity if confirmed. The clear structure, repeated tests of both support and resistance, and recent momentum build a strong technical case. Still, confirmation is key before initiating any positions.
=================================================================
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
=================================================================
XAUUSD H4Gold is forming a bullish structure on the 4H chart. Price is consolidating at a key reversal zone (Point C). If we get bullish confirmation, I’m targeting:
$3,400 short-term
$3,500 next
$3,560+ final leg (Point P)
Support at $3,300 must hold—below that, I’ll re-evaluate.
Watching closely for a breakout and retest above the trendline before entering.
Not financial advice – just my view.
USD/JPY Short1. Intervention-fade (always live)
Sell Limit 146.00
Stop Loss 146.80
Take-Profit 1 144.50 – if hit, move stop to breakeven
Take-Profit 2 143.00
Good-till-cancelled: auto-cancel if not filled after 5 trading days
2. Break-and-retest (place this only after a daily candle closes below 145.00)
Sell Limit 145.20
Stop Loss 146.00
Take-Profit 1 144.00
Take-Profit 2 143.00
Good-till-cancelled: auto-cancel if not filled within 5 trading days of being placed
Rule: the moment one of these orders fills, cancel the other so you never have two USD/JPY shorts open at the same time.
AUD/JPY ShortSell-limit (primary) 93.90 — front-runs the twin highs at 94.00 (May and again last week).
Stop-loss 95.10 — just above the 2024 YTD peak and round-number 95; if price closes above, the breakout is real.
Take-profit 1 91.50 — first daily support shelf; locks ~240 pips (≈ 1.6 R) and is often the first bounce zone.
Take-profit 2 88.50 — November-2023 base / 200-day SMA; full mean-reversion target (~540 pips, ≈ 3.6 R).
Filter to keep order Only leave the order active while the daily candle closes ≥ 93.80 (shows the lid is still respected).
GTC Cancel the order if unfilled after 5 trading days; reassess next week.
Quick rationale
Fundamentals: RBA leaning dovish; JPY could firm on BoJ hawkish hints & intervention risk.
Technical: Double-top near 94; bearish RSI divergence on daily; room down to 91s/88s.
Risk-reward: 120-pip risk vs. 240 / 540-pip reward = 1.6 R and 3.6 R pay-offs.
Place the limit, set the filter alert on daily closes, and let the trade come to you—no need to babysit intraday moves.
BTC - On its way down from these trendlines How low can we go? We will find out.
Three bearish intersecting trendlines above.
Short began initiating from above as per my previous post.
I personally am not ruling out a flash crash to 10,000.
DXY is breaking down a major bearish trendline on the weekly / monthly - Market has a prime opportunity to manipulate Bitcoin into all of these long stop losses and trigger a massive liquidation event.
Stay alert and safe!
BTC - Be mindful of resistance around 109,800 to 110,000Per my second last post about this red trendline - be mindful that there is a resistance located 109,800 to 110,000 zone.
Although Bitcoin can break above, that doesn’t mean the resistance is invalid. Price will weave above and below until it sticks and plays out.
Personally I watch these levels for sudden fast movement and confirmation that it’s holding as resistance.
If you see a fast drop initiate from these levels, be mindful that this could be indicative of intention to hit the lows around 20,000.
For more information see my previous posts.
Happy trading
AUD/JPY Short📍 AUD/JPY Short Setup – Sell Limit Order
Entry: 94.00
(clean retest of daily + weekly resistance zone, aligned with previous structure)
Stop Loss: 95.10
Take Profit 1: 91.00
(recent support shelf with high reaction probability)
Take Profit 2: 88.50
(strong weekly support zone; ideal mid-term target if momentum continues)
BTC Under Major Resistance HereBitcoin has shown strength towards playing out these ideas, as unrealistic as it may seem.
The interactions at specific levels have shown these trendlines to be valid.
I see two scenarios if BTC holds below its resistance at 104,550 to 105,000
104,600 to 35,000
35,000 retrace to 75,000
75,000 to 7,000
Alternatively:
104,600 to 20,000
Up from 20,000
While these seem like macro projections, per my previous posts and explanations - it’s possible to see this occur in a very small period of time. IE flash crash, stop hunt, etc.
Happy trading.
EUR/USD Long📍 Entry (Buy Limit):
1.1085
This is just above the 1.1000 psychological level but below previous minor structure at 1.1100.
Captures a shallow retest without risking being front-run by liquidity sweeps.
🛑 Stop Loss (SL):
1.0910
Below consolidation zone and wicks around 1.10
Provides enough space beneath the major breakout level while staying tight for R:R
🎯 Take Profit Targets:
TP1: 1.1500 (Previous weekly resistance, already tested but not broken)
TP2: 1.2000 (Next clean monthly structure level)
TP3 (macro): 1.2400 (Upper range of long-term channel, highly reactive zone)
⚖️ Risk/Reward:
Risk: ~175 pips
Reward:
• TP1: ~415 pips
• TP2: ~915 pips
• TP3: ~1,315 pips
R:R = 2.4 to 1, 5.2 to 1, 7.5 to 1
BZ BO of ascending wedgeBZ Trade Update 📈
BZ has shown strong bullish behavior after bouncing off a key support level. It has now broken out of an ascending wedge formation, offering another solid entry opportunity.
I've entered a second position and adjusted risk management accordingly:
✅ SL of the first trade moved to breakeven (BE)
✅ New SL set 1% below the second entry candle
Now it's a matter of patience and discipline, letting the trade play out while following the plan.
Stay consistent and trust your process! 💪
EURGBP Bullish Structure Analysis – Channel Breakout + Target🧱 1. Market Structure Breakdown
EURGBP has been trading within a descending channel, forming consistent lower highs and lower lows, which indicates a short-term bearish trend. However, price action recently broke out above the upper boundary of this channel, suggesting a potential bullish reversal or trend correction.
This breakout marks a significant structural shift in market behavior.
🔵 Old Structure: Bearish, confined within the channel
🟢 New Structure: Bullish breakout above trendline + key resistance zone
🧩 Implication: Change in directional bias; potential for long opportunities
📍 2. Breakout Confirmation
The breakout was confirmed by:
A strong bullish impulse candle that closed above the descending trendline
Price sustaining above previous resistance (~0.8405)
Increase in bullish volume at the breakout point (if volume indicator is used)
This suggests that the breakout is genuine, not a false spike or liquidity grab.
🌀 3. Retest Phase – The Critical Zone
After breaking out, the market is now pulling back to retest the previous structure. This is a textbook price action move:
🔄 What’s Being Retested?
✅ Upper boundary of the descending channel
✅ Major horizontal support/resistance zone (~0.8405–0.8415)
✅ Broken trendline from previous lower highs
✅ QFL base (Quasimodo level that was swept)
✅ 50% Fibonacci retracement of the breakout move
This zone forms a multi-level confluence area, making it a strong support for potential long entries.
🔍 4. Key Technical Observations
Element Description
📐 Descending Channel Defined the prior bearish structure. Breakout invalidates this bias.
🧱 Trendline Retest Acts as dynamic support; price currently sitting on it.
🔃 SR Flip Zone Old resistance (~0.8405) turned into support—critical level.
📊 Fib 50% Retracement Provides technical alignment with potential buying interest.
📌 QFL/Order Block Zone Historical demand was swept and now being respected again.
🎯 5. Target Levels & Trade Plan
If the structure holds and the price responds bullishly from the current zone, the next levels of interest are:
✅ Primary Target – 0.8460
A clear supply/liquidity zone from previous structure highs
Also aligns with psychological round number and Fib extension
⚠️ Interim Target – 0.8430
Previous intra-channel resistance level
May serve as a short-term reaction point
❌ Invalidation Level
A clean break and close below 0.8390 would invalidate the breakout structure
This would reintroduce bearish pressure and signal a potential fakeout
🧠 6. Trade Idea (Not Financial Advice)
Entry: Around 0.8405–0.8415 on bullish confirmation (e.g., engulfing candle, pin bar, break of minor downtrend)
Stop-Loss: Below 0.8390 (beneath structure & invalidation point)
Take-Profit 1: 0.8430
Take-Profit 2: 0.8460
This offers a high R:R opportunity if managed with proper confirmation.
🧭 7. Risk Management & Considerations
Avoid entering prematurely without a bullish signal (e.g., pin bar, engulfing, RSI divergence).
Monitor macroeconomic news—especially from BoE or ECB—as they can disrupt technical setups.
Scaling into the position or using a split TP strategy can help protect profits.
✅ Conclusion
This EURGBP setup is a textbook case of market structure trading:
A well-defined channel breakout
Followed by a clean pullback to structure
With confluence across horizontal, diagonal, and Fibonacci levels
If price respects this zone, bulls could drive toward 0.8460, offering a solid opportunity for traders who understand structure-based setups.
📌 Always wait for confirmation—structure gives us context, but entries need price action signals to minimize risk.
Bitcoin to $115k or pullback to $91kGood Evening Traders,
First I would like to say, congratulations to all of you who have been in the game for the last 3 bitcoin halving cycles. Through all of the "You buy fake internet money" comments or the never ending explaining of the Tokenomics of different cryptocurrencies, I have to say KUDOS to all of us who saw the vision, stuck to your guns and intricately added to your bags over the years! We are finally here on the cusp of full regulation and a final hush of the naysayers!
Ok, now down to brass tax! On the chart I have Highlighted a few important details. Something I did not point out on the chart is the massive printing of USDT that has been happening over the past few days. It seems to me that we are on the cusp of a massive influx of capital into the alt coin markets. But, for now lets focus on Bitcoin! As stated, you can see multiple points that I have highlighted... These being mostly bearish for the big dog of market cap and the grandfather coins of crypto Bitcoin. The first few things to notice is the bearish divergence on the MACD histogram, the bearish down cross of the MACD line over the signal line on the MACD indicator. You can also note the overbought area on the RSI right above that. In addition to this we do have some gaps on CME:BTC1! Which generally get filled sooner than later on most charts.
With this in mind, it is possible that we could have some good news amongst the movers and shakers down at the Bitcoin conference this week. Yet, we could get some sell the news type events that could ease the price downward to fill in these gaps that we have below. In my experience at the beginning of each alt coin season Bitcoin generally leads the rally and can trade sideways to down during the upward movement of the majority of the altcoin market.
My personal thoughts on the chart currently is shown at the top of the chart. if we close the daily candle underneath the hyperlocal resistance shown on the red line at the top of the chart, then we will most likely start pulling back to fill the first gap that is shown on the chart below in yellow. Albeit, the MACD is a lagging indicator, we can gain a lot of insight using it and my favorite sign on the MACD is using the histogram to point out bearish and bullish divergences. This shows a lack in momentum in the current trend that is shown through the price action of the assets trend. Especially, after a straight run up like we have just experienced as of late.
In conclusion, you can make the assumption that if we close the current day under the red line above it is very possible that we begin what could turn out to be an ABC correction leading us down to fill in the gaps on BTC1! to the downside. If we hold the first support, BTC may show us a little more juice potentially reaching for just under $115k. This in my opinion would likely be a bull trap for the time being. Summers are not the best when it comes to crypto growth and it always seems like we are waiting for the Ground Hog to see its shadow to find out if we are to the moon or back to McDonalds with our friends!
I hope that this analysis has helped you gain some insight in your research. I have added supports to the chart to show you where we may turn around and start heading back into price discovery.
Stay Profitable,
Savvy
BTC - Another Potential Bearish PatternHere I present my second alternative for a Bearish case for Bitcoin.
Per my previous posts I explain in detail the interest in recollecting liquidity in these lower zones. Previously I presented pathways to the uber lows at 7,000-10,000 - however this is another possible case.
I believe Bitcoin can see a drop from 109,200 straight down to 19,000-20,000
Why?
1. Major Volume support at this level
2. Major liquidity pools in confluence with this level
3. Price would form a W bottom with a higher low - which aligns with DXY breaking down on the monthly time frame. We can use DXY to project a bull market spanning 2-5 years (weakening dollar = more interest in deflationary assets such as Bitcoin)
4. Per the note above, it’s unlikely that BTC continues straight up without a sharp drop. The way this market works is to a large degree with leverage trading. The market and exchanges desperately want to shake out these longs, especially if we consider a 2-5 year bullish forecast through a macro view.
5. Confluence with this diagonal trendline which shows a clear support / resistance structure (note the Bitcoin chart is formed via diagonal ascending support and resistance lines - we can demonstrate this clearly and repeatable by duplicating the correct trendline and seeing how it forms the chart at any location)
Personally, I am shorting Bitcoin from 109,000 - and am expecting to see a fast drop through the rest of the weekend.
I will watch what the price does, where it reacts and interacts, and attempt to get a head start on understanding the true bottom before this “true” bull cycle begins.
Happy trading
MNQ Trade Setup -- Waiting for Flash PMI ImpactI’m holding off on a re-entry as we approach the Flash PMI at 9:45 AM. My bias is that there’s a potential for price manipulation to push higher above buy-side liquidity, taking out the highs before continuing lower. I’m waiting for the PMI release to confirm this idea and get better clarity on the market direction.
Bias: Expecting a possible manipulation higher to take out buy-side liquidity, followed by a continuation lower.
Waiting for Flash PMI to unfold before making any further decisions.
CAD/CHF Short
🔻 CAD/CHF Swing Short Setup
Sell Limit Entry: 0.6040
Stop Loss: 0.6115 (above recent daily highs)
Take Profit 1: 0.5800
Take Profit 2: 0.5700
Risk-to-Reward: ~2.6:1 to TP1, ~4.5:1 to TP2
Fundamentals:
CAD is weakening from falling oil, soft economic data, and global trade risk.
CHF is gaining on risk-off sentiment and its safe-haven status.
Technical Confluence:
Monthly chart just broke below long-term support at 0.6000 for the first time ever.
Weekly chart shows price retesting 0.6000–0.6050, a perfect break-and-retest setup.
Daily shows price stalling beneath resistance without strength — no bullish breakout attempt yet.
Target Logic:
TP1 at 0.5800 is just above the panic wick zone — realistic and conservative.
TP2 at 0.5700 aligns with the extreme 2015 SNB spike low — stretch target only if momentum continues.
AUD/CHF ShortBias: Bearish AUD/CHF
AUD Weakness
RBA inflation (Trimmed Mean CPI YoY) slowed from 3.3% → 2.9%
Global risk sentiment is fading due to weak U.S. data, trade tensions, and slowing growth
AUD struggles in risk-off environments and with declining China demand
CHF Strength
Safe-haven flows remain strong as markets de-risk
Swiss CPI is stable, and the SNB remains steady — CHF attractive in low-volatility regimes
CHF favored when yield-chasing slows down
📌 Technical Coordinates – Short Setup
Sell Limit Entry: 0.5400
Stop Loss: 0.5525
(Above daily structure high and broken support zone)
Take Profit 1: 0.5000
(Key psychological and historical support zone)
Take Profit 2: 0.4800
(SNB spike zone, clean sweep extension)
Intraday Playbook ES Futures: Trade Setup & Context CME_MINI:ES1!
Big Picture Context
Please see related trade idea.
In this analysis, we refine our intraday levels to identify potential trade setups. We also review recent price action and present a high-probability long trade example that frequently offers favorable risk-reward dynamics when it plays out successfully.
See chart image below reviewing yesterday’s long trade opportunity.
Example Trade Setup: SFP Long
Time frame: 1 hour or 30 mins
• Entry: 5612
• Stop: 5595.50 (below SFP candle)
• Target: 5682 (mCVAH — confluence with recent highs)
• Risk: 66 ticks
• Reward: 280 ticks
• Risk/Reward Ratio: 4.2 R
Note: Past performance is not indicative of future results.
________________________________________
Intraday Market Structure Review
What has the market done?
• ES Futures have rallied and reclaimed a key technical level.
• Currently trading above:
o March 2025 low
o 2025 mid-year level
o Developing Value Area Low (VAL) for the 2025 Volume Profile
What is the market trying to do?
• Recover prior months' losses.
• Price action is climbing steadily, establishing higher lows.
How well is it doing?
• Despite headline risks, ES futures show resilience.
• Price has painted green candles in the full session for the past 10 consecutive days—a strong bullish structure.
________________________________________
What Is More Likely to Happen from Here?
Scenario 1: Pullback and Continuation Higher
A pullback toward the 0.618 Fib retracement and mCVAH confluence could offer another long setup, targeting the April 2nd high. This is further supported by NQ already reclaiming those highs, with ES still lagging but showing strength.
Example Trade Idea:
Time frame: 1 hour or 30 mins
• Entry: 5688
• Stop: 5680
• Target: 5724 (May 2 High)
• Risk: 32 ticks
• Reward: 144 ticks
• Risk/Reward Ratio: 4.5 R
Target may be adjusted if relative volume and delta support strong momentum toward April 2nd highs.
________________________________________
Scenario 2: Further Consolidation
• Sellers push prices back into last week's balance/value area.
• Market consolidates and builds energy for a likely next leg higher.
• No short setup is presented, as current risk and stop placement do not justify initiating short positions.
Important Notes:
• These are example trade ideas not intended to be a recommendation to trade, and traders are encouraged to do their own analysis and preparation before entering any positions.
• Stop losses are not guaranteed to trigger at specified levels, and actual losses may exceed predetermined stop levels.
USDCHF Trade Idea, AMD PATTERN: last trade of the week for meClean setup unfolding on USDCHF! After grabbing liquidity near the weekly low (0.81924), price showed strength and reversed with conviction (AMD Pattern). Entered long from the refined demand zone and now eyeing the weekly high at 0.83317 as target.
📌 Trade Breakdown:
🔹 Entry Zone: Bullish reaction from demand
🔹 Confluence: Liquidity sweep + internal structure shift
🔹 Target: Weekly high zone at 0.83317
🔹 Risk/Reward: Solid R:R with protected downside below recent low
Let’s see if bulls can maintain momentum and drive us to TP! 📈🔥
#USDCHF #SmartMoneyConcepts #ForexTrading #LiquiditySweep #TradingView #TradeSetu