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Analysis of 23-1This week we have the following news moments to process: TueJan 24 10:30 GBP Flash Manufacturing PMI 45.4 45.3 GBP Flash Services PMI 49.6 49.9 15:45 USD Flash Services PMI 45.0 44.7 22:45 NZD CPI q/q 1.4% 2.2% WedJan 25 1:30 AUD CPI q/q 1.6% 1.8% AUD CPI and/or 7.5% 7.3% AUD Trimmed Mean CPI q/q 1.6% 1.8% 16:00 CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report CAD BOC Rate Statement CAD Overnight Rate 4.50% 4.25% 17:00 CAD BOC Press Conference ThuJan 26 14:30 USD Advance GDP q/q 2.6% 3.2% FriJan 27 14:30 USD Core PCE Price Index m/m Our positions: #EURUSD: this weekend it was indicated by some central bankers from the Eurozone that there will be a few more moments of interest rate rises but that deep recession will probably not occur. So an increase in this pair certainly applies. today our buy position is in the minus. But that will be for today. GBPUSD: Despite having a buy close to the top of the past two months, we are staying put because the trend is long and compared to recent weeks, the pair seems to shoot up on a rebound. NZDCAD : we're long in this pair that's now moving pretty much sideways. COT data and trend data remain long. NZDCHF : we are keeping an eye on this buy trade because the candel started above the entry today. Through this we can go trailing. US500 : we turned on a trailing. At the end of the NY session we can reschedule the sl. Gold : we let our buy trade run.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by Probeleg
A clearer trading pattern than Satoshi VisionContemplating Bitcoin's next big move I predict that the next significant move will be lower. I have a few reasons for this view, among which are technical, macro and sentiment. The first being the most visual, are the technical patterns which I have highlighted. As Bitcoin has traded rather different in this bear market, I have found that looking for specific support ranges and trend lines hasn't been particularly helpful. The solution I found, that has benefited my trading, is watching the daily moving averages. Combining this with the added benefit of watching the RSI can give a significant edge in timing this uncertain market. Watching the 200 Daily moving average, which had formed a major confirmation signal for this bear market in March 2022. Since then the 200 SMA has become untouchable and therefore not very relevant the last few months. We must focus on the 50 and more importantly the 100 SMA which has formed a barrier like two south poles of a magnet. Looking at the Red circles highlighting some of the major pivot points in Bitcoin's price before heading lower, we can see how the 100 SMA has two types of resistance. The first being when the Candles press against the 100 day before getting rejected. The FTX bankruptcy ruining the chance for a more significant breakout to the upside, highlighted by the purple triangle. The second form of resistance is when Bitcoin's price achieves a break above the 50 SMA but fails to climb towards the 100 SMA. This, in my opinion really shows how fragile and out numbered the market's bulls have been. We are currently seeing the second situation with price action running up rather quickly to the middle of the 50 & 100 SMA but losing momentum. We are seeing such positive prices, mainly due to the related positive price action in traditional markets, such as European and US indices. The S&P 500, being my go to indicator for general market sentiment, is currently entangled with the 50 & 100 SMA and might even have one final push towards the 200 Daily SMA but will be rejected again. This is an almost identical moving average pattern as seen in October 2007 - June 2008. A period before the last bulls woke to smell the coffee. Only to find what smelled a lot like excrement in their collective coffee cups (Portfolios). Assuming with a high degree of certainty, that positive traditional market sentiment is waning. As we enter the first acknowledged year of this Great Inflationary Central Bank Recession, caused by a combination of negative interest rates and a supply chain bullwhip effect even the Russian military's logistic department might have been able to spot. We are going to lose the last bit of positive buying sentiment, likely leading to Bitcoin's next strong rejection lower. When also considering the Yellow circles positioned on the RSI chart at the bottom, we can see a fairly predictable pattern. By watching for when BTC's RSI level for when it nears 60 and above. While combining the SMA pattern described above. We can use this to prepare for the next leg lower. I believe we are witnessing a prime example of this, at the time of writing. Hopefully leading to another similar result over the next few days or weeks. From a macro point of view, Central banks are all engaging on further tightening measures. While Inflation is running rampant and significantly raising prices for all goods, particularly in terms of rental properties, food and living expenses. Aspects that are not proportionally represented in official government reports. Combined with this is wave of lowering company earnings and a swathe of high paying lay offs in the financial, tech and manufacturing sectors. These factors have not been factored into price yet and the likelihood of the Central bankers holding higher rates for these next two years, has not be accounted for. The final aspect in this analysis/rant is the slow selling that has occurred. With each slow rally against the downtrend, each sideways accumulation is being held up by a "Buy the Dip" mentality. Retail is buying the dip the same way as in every bear cycle. The dumbest of funds are buying the dip, when a likely larger 25% sell off is coming down the river to Niagara Falls. This is just one Investor's opinion, best of luck out there. Hope to see you at $12k buying a few Bitcoin too.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by FortunaAlgoAnalytics
10
$GBPCHF$GBPCHF - A break to either direction! We had a pull back finally in the market, AUDCHF came down and various other markets such as ES, GBP etc. Now I'm going through minor FX pairs this is a break either direction. We are within channel, added alerts in to either direction of break. If we were to go above and carry on within channel expect 200 EMA target areas. If we were to go below and beak down - 1.11600 / 1.11400 areas is a good target area. Don't forget to trade your own plan! Trade Journal
by Trade_Journal
1
$NZD - Interesting area!$NZD - Interesting area! I always go towards higher time frames, as Higher TF = Shorter TF movement it's really is as simple as that. As you can see, this is the weekly now we are within the ranges: Lows: 0.62 /.61 Areas Highs: 0.65 Areas For now you execute the range trade playing between those high and lows until a break. A break to either direction, would take you to either to trendline resistance and 200 EMA areas. A break below low of the ranges, you go towards great Fib area of support 0.60000 areas Overall, the market is looking over extended even with DXY but picking bottoms isn't wise decision to ever make! Key Tip: Follow your own trade plan. Have a great week ahead, Trade Journal
by Trade_Journal
EURAUD Trading Plan - 14/Jan/2023Hello Traders, Hope you all are doing good!! I expect EURAUD to go Up after finishing this correction. Look for your BUY setups. Please follow me and like if you agree or this idea helps you out in your trading plan. Disclaimer: This is just an idea. Please do your own analysis before opening a position. Always use SL & proper risk management. Market can evolve anytime, hence, always do your analysis and learn trade management before following any idea.
Long
by For3xScalper
2
GOLD - Potential Daily TradeGreeting. After todays CPI news. Gold made a new local top in the latest bullrun. Right now the price reached an important 4H orderblock/supply area and I expect a retracement of 50% of the previous bullish impulse ($1760 area). If we are lucky enough we can even hit the daily demand area that coincides with a strong FIB level. A potential confirmation for me will be a Daily candle close underneath the upper channel line. In this regard, I am preparing to enter a short trade. Trade details: Entry: 1892.50 SL: 1905.10 TP1: 1760 TP2: 1700 RR: 1:12 Risk: 1% account balance Disclaimer: This is not a trading signal or financial advice. It is only a potential trade that I'm looking at. I encourage you to always do your own diligence and not jump in blindly.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by AAlex91
BTC/USDT - Pullback expectedGreetings! After the latest rally, BTC entered a supply zone that made the bulls slow down a bit. I am expecting the latest orderblock to push the price into a pullback that can reach the 17k psychological level at least, which coincides with a demand area, before resuming this small uptrend. Entry: 17403.9 SL: 17502 TP1: 17000 TP2: 16700 RR: 1:6 Don't risk more than 1% of your account balance! Cheers. Trade with care and DYOR. Disclaimer: This is not a trading signal or financial advice. It is only a potential trade that I'm looking at. I encourage you to always do your own diligence and not jump in blindly.
Short
by AAlex91
2
Using DXY - Bond yield Divergence correctly.A really strong indicator for future price action of say DXY for example can be the divergence between it and 5y, 10y and 30y bond yields. Forex markets are driven mainly by interest rates and so if we take a close look at the bond yields we can see them making lower highs whereas DXY is making higher highs. As said, DXY will also follow the bond yields and so we would expect DXY to drop. This SMT Divergence concept coupled with economic events could make for a great trade idea.
TVC:DXY
by AlxFxOfficial