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Is Gold BULLISH!? (Weekly Analysis)Price Rejected a key level of support and has been retracing. As you can see price has been creating higher lows and respecting the current trend. In the short term we could see more bullish momentum leading into this week. This week is PMI and NFP news so this could have an impact on price. It is important to keep in mind that the overall trend on the HTF is still bearish so buys will be short lived and positions should be taken with caution when counter trend trading. If you look at price on the 4H TF, you can see that price has broken structure and as long as support is formed and price respects 1843.30, we could see a bullish continuation until we reach the major level of resistance above.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by dreadhead4_life
Bitcoin Analysis - Triangle Formation Nearing Breakout!Hello Traders, here is my analysis for BTCUSD. Another day has past and really nothing has changed with BTC over the past 24 hours. BTC is still trading within the same range that I spoke about in my post yesterday, so the same technical analysis still applies. **There has been one new development to keep an eye on, and that is the triangle formation that BTC has formed. - I first noticed it a couple days ago, but at the time I couldn't tell whether BTC was trading within the Support & Resistance zone or if it was now trading within the triangle formation. - It's quite clear that it's definitely trading within the triangle formation now... So what does this mean from a technical standpoint? - This means a breakout (or Breakdown) is inevitable in the coming days. - As you can see price is becoming wedged, smaller and smaller in this formation until eventually the pattern breaks. - Similar to Support & Resistance, whichever way price breaks will signal a strong buying or selling presence towards that direction. - This will give us a good idea of what BTC's following move will be. - If price breaks the triangle to the upside = BTC is short term Bullish - If price breaks to the downside = BTC is short term Bearish ***I measured from today to where the triangle meets and there is only 3 days to that point. That means a move should happen within 3 days. What happens next if BTC breaks the Triangle to the upside? - If BTC breaks the triangle to the upside, that is very positive in the short term for BTC. - I would expect BTC next to target resistance at $31.4K - It's possible that the excitement and momentum from BTC breaking the triangle will be enough to help BTC finally break resistance at $31.4K - If $31.4K is broken the next target will be $33K. ***Remember, the more times a support or resistance level is hit the weaker it gets. Just imagine that you are trying to break through a wall with a sledgehammer, you're probably not going to be able to knock it down the first few hits. But after 4 or 5 hits the wall becomes very weak and finally breaks. Thats it for todays analysis, thanks everyone and best of luck trading!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by natef1
2
BTC Analysis - Bullish & Bearish Scenario + Target LevelsHello Traders, here is my analysis for BTCUSD. As you can see not much has changed since my last BTC post, BTC has basically been trading in the same sideways formation for the past 2 weeks. There hasn't been much to update given this sideways price action but I wanted to give you all the target levels depending on which way BTC breaks... - One positive thing to note is that BTC has held up very well over the past 2 weeks despite a volatile stock market. This tells me that BTC has stabilized and is preparing for the next move. The question remains... which direction will the move occur?? - As of right now the probabilities still favor BTC getting a bounce a having a short term rally, but we have to be prepared in case that doesn't play out. So What Are The Possible Price Targets? - The great thing about BTC trading in this sideways formation is that it makes it very easy for us to predict what levels BTC will hit depending on which direction it breaks. - As you can see I've broken the chart into 2 sections - Bullish & Bearish BULLISH - If BTC breaks and holds above resistance at $31.4K, this is a breakout and expect BTC to hit target #1 at $33K. BEARISH - If BTC breaks and holds below Support at $28.6K, this is a breakdown and expect BTC to hit target #1 at around $27.2K How High Can BTC Go? - If BTC was to breakout and hit target #1, I do think BTC could possibly head to target #2 eventually. It's possible that after the first target is hit that BTC could consolidate for some time again before heading to target #2. - Personally I would unload around 75% of my profits at target #2 being as I think target #3 has a low probability of being hit. - The higher BTC goes, the lower the probability of it hitting the next resistance level. - The probabilities dictate that the highest BTC could go during a corrective bounce would be around $39K. What Happens After BTC Rallies? - After BTC has it's corrective bounce, I would expect for price to come back and retest the bottom of the parallel channel around $26.5K. - BTC would probably get another bounce of that level before consolidating again. What is The BTC's Bottom This Bear Cycle? - Based off my analysis I think BTC will easily hit at minimum $20K (Previous High) - However I think BTC will most likely bottom out at around $12K possibly even lower. Thanks Everyone and Best of Luck Trading!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by natef1
9
Supply & Demand Zones - Learn To Trade Like A ProHello Traders, here's an educational post about how to trade Supply & Demand Zones. First off I would like to say... I highly recommend that you watch some youtube videos on this topic. I can only cover so much in one post and you will have a much better understanding of these zones after watching some videos. Either way Supply & Demand zones are one of the most effective methods for trading and if you can learn to master them you can make a lot of money. Supply & Demand Zones - S&D zones are exactly what they sound like. They are zones where Supply & Demand exist... (Again, please watch some videos to understand this better) - Basically, they are areas on the chart where there is heavy buying and selling pressure. - At S&D zones, there is a high probability that price will get rejected from those levels. - Knowing this we can take either a long or short trade. - There are actual technical reasons why price should get rejected at these levels. Knowing this we have a higher probability of success. ***An important thing to note is that you don't just enter a trade every time a S&D zone is hit. You want to look for signs of reversal. This is pretty easy to spot if you understand candlestick formations. Look for reversal candles, you can also check the shorter time frames to see if price is struggling to break the level. That's pretty much it for the post, a visual representation is much more effective in this situation so please reference the chart. ***Once again please watch some videos. I gave you they basic info but there is still much more to learn regarding this topic. Supply & Demand Zones are one of my favorite ways to trade so I really hope everyone enjoys this posts! Thanks everyone and best of luck trading!
BYBIT:BTCUSD.P
by natef1
1
#ES Futures 5.19.22 Overview and Levels to WatchYesterday we had a big sell off, I had it market that we would visit our Key Support at 3976.50-3971.50 and if selling is strong then can see lower levels as well, did not expect to that much but we got what we got. Today we are set to open on a gap down and below T+2 low of Tuesday. Currently inventory is short and we found some buyers before our swing low and Key Support of 3853.25-3847.25, at the open I want to see if we get any correction and maybe try to fill the gap at around 3905 area, if we cant fill the gap and stay above our Key Resistance of 3892.25-3887.25 then on the downside my targets are 3878.75-3874.75, 3866.75-3863.25, Support at 3853.25-3847.25 if that breaks and then we have room to visit lower levels of 3839-3835.50, 3825.50-3820.25 and next support at 3811-3804.50, if the selling is strong as yday I expect us to test the bottom of this daily range we are in since we are currently at half point, those levels would be 3791.50-3787.75, 3780.50-3776.75 and KEY support at 3764.75-3758.25. On the upside holding above Key Support of 3892.25-3887.25 we can see a push to test 3901-3898, 3914.75-3910.75 and next Key Resistance at 3931.75-3927.25. Careful with longs today because we do expect margin call selling, will only be looking for longs if key levels hold and show support, other than that looking to short from Key levels down.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
BTC FIB Channel - Will History Repeat & BTC Rally?Hello Traders, here is my analysis for BTCUSD. Before I start I want to mention that the stock market had a terrible day today. For Walmart it was the worst day since I believe the 1980's, for the Nasdaq the worst in a couple years. BTC is currently closely correlated to the Nasdaq. So even if BTC looks strong from a technical standpoint but the Nasdaq has a bad day, BTC will follow and dump. This is making it very difficult to judge what BTC will do... I am doing my best to try and focus more on using the Nasdaq as my gauge for BTC instead of just BTC by itself. - I just wanted to fill you guys in, so keep an eye on the Nasdaq and tech stocks. - Also be cautious right now and trade with small positions until BTC stabilizes. First, not much has changed from my analysis yesterday. BTC still continues to trade within the current range. - One important thing to note is that BTC retested support at $28.6K and as of this writing has gotten a small bounce from that level. - If this level can hold that will be a very positive signal for BTC. On to the analysis... I'm going to keep this short for tonight. As you know BTC is currently trading within a parallel channel, I spoke about this in my post yesterday. - One of my favorite tools is the FIB Channel tool. - As you can see it really brings the chart to life and shows us the FIB levels within the channel. - This tool is great because we can use it to find confluence between different FIB levels in the chart and we can see how price has interacted with those levels in the past. - If you notice, each time price either entered or hit the bottom of the channel price rallied at minimum to the .786, on one occasion breaking through. Essentially: - 75% of the time that price hit the bottom price hit the .786 FIB - 25% of the time price broke through. ***Of course nothing is guaranteed in trading, but if you are in a long position you can use this to help determine a max upside target if BTC was to bounce off the bottom of the channel. - The .786 level actually nearly intersects with the "ascending trend line" which yesterday I stated was my max upside target for BTC during a pump. - One thing to note was that from the bottom of the channel to the .786 at minimum took 2 weeks to hit, sometimes taking as long as a month. - So if this was to play out it could take a few more weeks. That's it, I will keep everyone update as always and best of luck trading.
BYBIT:BTCUSD.P
by natef1
2
Bitcoin Analysis - Long Trade Setup / How & Where To Take ProfitHello Traders! Here is my analysis for BTCUSD. First off just to update everyone, I was out of town for a wedding this past week which is why I didn't post. I'm home now so I will be back to my regular posting schedule! Alright on to the analysis... Bitcoin has been holding up nicely over the past several days, finally showing signs of consolidation. - What this means is that BTC is currently stabilizing and potentially preparing for the next move up. - If you saw my last post about I spoke about BTC trading in a parallel channel. Being as this level has held the probabilities favor BTC trading in this channel for the time being. - So until BTC confirms below the channel, the "Parallel Channel' thesis is valid. So what does BTC hitting the channel mean for price action? - The probabilities still favor BTC getting a large bounce. - If you go back and look at each time BTC hit the bottom of this channel you will see that it got a large bounce. - Remember trading is about probabilities... meaning, it's not guaranteed that BTC will get a large bounce like the other times but the probabilities do favor it. - But now that we have seen BTC finally consolidate at this level, the probabilities of a large bounce have increased. - So knowing this we can start to plan our next move... How to trade BTC off these levels (Long Trade Setup) - Since we are anticipating BTC bouncing, we can plan our next long position. - The ideal level to buy would've been when BTC hit the bottom of the channel, but we can still make profits from where BTC is currently trading. - As you can see on the chart, I have labeled a "Buy Zone". This is where I would feel "safe" buying. - You can take profits at each one of the "Take Profit" levels I've listed on the chart. (Which are key resistance levels) - Most likely I will be taking profits in 1/3 increments. - Raise your stop loss to the "Take Profit #1" after that level is hit, repeating with each following "Take Profit" Level that is hit. - You don't have to split up your profits if you don't want to but either way it's best to create a plan. ***In my opinion the maximum realistic price that BTC could hit during this bounce would be the "ascending trend line" at around $38K - $38.8K. So personally I will take all profits by that point. How to know if the trade is invalidated? - As long as BTC is trading within the Parallel channel, this trade is valid. - It could take anywhere from a few days for a few weeks for BTC to have a large rally, so don't get discouraged if it doesn't happen right away. - Remember... Patience is key! - If BTC confirms below the parallel channel, this trade setup is invalidated and expect further downside continuation. ***Important*** - Remember... the channel is down-sloping, so price could trend below support at $28.6K but still be within the parallel channel. - Use the channel as Major Support for BTC Thanks Everyone and Best of Luck Trading!!!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by natef1
4
Bitcoin Analysis - New Parallel Channel? Hello Traders! Here is my analysis for BTCUSD. - First I want to say, I am currently sitting the market out for the time being. After incurring such massive losses on LUNA, I'm going to take a step back until BTC stabilizes or behaves in a more predictable manner. If BTC was to stabilize tomorrow I would happily start trading, but until then I'm playing it safe. So how will I know when BTC stabilizes??? - One of the keys to success in trading is identifying predictable patterns, levels, formations, etc. in a chart. - As of recent BTC has been incredibly unpredictable, which has made it very hard to accurately predict price movement. - However... BTC may be trading within a parallel channel which would give us a better idea of the range in which BTC most likely will trade. - If BTC can hold this channel, I will trade BTC between the channel. - If the channel is broken, expect continuation to whichever direction price broke from. Do Parallel Channels really work? - Parallel channels are one of the most powerful formations in trading. - Personally my primary intraday trading strategies are based off of channels and Fibs. - If you remember, BTC was trading between a parallel channel from January to nearly May, and traded between the channel perfectly for those months which made trading BTC very predictable. - As you can see price wicked below the channel last night but got a very nice bounce off that level. This is the first signal that BTC may be trading between the channel. How Do We Know If The Channel Is Invalidated? - It's very simple... If price breaks either below or above the channel (and does not immediately come back in) then the channel is broken. So what's next for BTC? ***1st let me say, I will be keeping a very close eye on this channel. If it holds we will have an excellent channel to trade between. - It's very hard to say at the moment, the events of the past couple days were unprecedented so that really makes it hard to predict what BTC will do. - But... I would say the probabilities favor BTC staying in the range of $28.5K - $31K over the weekend. - Truthfully BTC is overdue fro a large bounce and has been for days, but Crypto has a large dark cloud over it right now so undoubtedly that is affecting positive price movement. How should you trade? - If you are not an experienced trader I would be very cautious right now. - Keep position sizes small 1-4% of portfolio, and be very selective with trades. - Watch for BTC to go a few days without another large sell off, this will indicate some stabilization and may be a safer environment to trade. Thanks everyone and best of luck trading. I apologize for not being that active this week, I got absolutely wrecked the other day and needed a break.
by natef1
1
BTC Short Term Targets - Will Price Continue to Fall?Hello Traders, here is my analysis for BTCUSD. I want to start by saying... Hang in there everyone and don't give up. - The past few days have been unprecedented in a lot of ways for Crypto, specifically BTC and LUNA. - Personally I lost a massive amount of money on LUNA. I had a large long position that was liquidated and I also had a portion of my money in UST which I lost as well. In attempts to keep my LUNA position from being liquidated I had to buy more LUNA on 3 separate occasions to lower my liquidation price, ultimately I was liquidated. - In total I lost nearly 30% of my portfolio between LUNA and UST. This whole situation sucks and a lot of people lost an incredible amount of money. - If you're unfamiliar with how this happened, the short of it is this: - LUNA has a stable coin backed by BTC called UST. - The stable coin became unpegged, panic ensued and people stared selling in mass driving down the price of UST. - LUNA had to sell their BTC to bring the UST price back up. This also drove the price of BTC down. - As of today LUNA is down 85% since a couple days ago. So if you had a position in LUNA I feel for you. It's sad how many people were affected by no fault of their own. On to BTC This is going to be short. ***One thing to pay attention to is the releasing of the CPI number at 8:30a.m. - If the CPI number is better than expected, the market will rally. If it's worse... well it's going to be another painful day. - BTC tagged major support all the way down just below $30K. Honestly I wasn't expecting that to happen so quick, but with the whole LUNA situation it was the perfect storm. - On a positive note, BTC is holding major support very well. - If the CPI number is good, I'm expecting for BTC to get a nice bounce. BTC Short Term Targets - The 1st target I'm eyeing for BTC is at $34.4K. I think this will be easy for BTC to hit on a bounce. - The 2nd target is at $37.5K. This would be the best case scenario and is a lower probability move. - The highest I think BTC could go before getting rejected and trending lower is the $37.5K level. So this means I do not think BTC will go much higher than that for the coming months. - After BTC gets rejected from resistance it will trend back to the $29K zone. This will be a massive test of support, I don't think it will hold on this retest and will fall below. - What will follow is another massive sell off like we saw the past few days. Summary - BTC should bounce - 1st target $34.4K - 2nd target $37.5K - BTC will get rejected, then trend lower and break $29K support - Followed by another large sell off ***On a side note*** I'm not sure how active I'll be this week. I lost a lot of money yesterday and need to take some time to figure things out. I'll try to post if I can but I will be back. Thanks everyone and best of luck trading!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by natef1
11