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Tradewar

Can Japan Weather the Semiconductor Tempest?In the intricate landscape of global semiconductor trade, Japan's recent decision to restrict exports of chipmaking equipment to China has ignited a tempest of geopolitical tensions. The move, while intended to limit China's technological advancements, risks triggering severe economic retaliation from Beijing. As a leading player in the semiconductor industry, Tokyo Electron finds itself caught in the crossfire, grappling with the potential consequences of this escalating dispute. The semiconductor industry, a cornerstone of modern technology, is intricately intertwined with global economies. Disruptions to the supply of advanced chipmaking equipment could have far-reaching consequences, affecting industries from automotive manufacturing to artificial intelligence. The potential for economic retaliation from China, a major market for Japanese exports, further complicates the situation. Japan's decision to impose export controls is driven by a strategic imperative to limit China's technological capabilities. However, this strategy carries significant risks. China has responded with a strong warning, threatening severe economic retaliation. The broader geopolitical context further complicates the situation, as the United States and its allies have been working to limit China's technological advancements. The question remains: Can Japan successfully navigate this delicate balancing act, maintaining its economic interests while adhering to its strategic objectives? The answer to this enigma will likely shape the future of the semiconductor industry and the global technological landscape for years to come.
NYSE:TELShort
by signalmastermind
TSL A - Gamma FadeIncreasing desperation in Calls as the TSLA P/C heads to lows. Share Volume is being driven by the same group of De-Gens as last week. Gamblers eyeballing the 900s. Institutions eyeing the 629 - 658s. A compelling SELL in our opinion. Same game, different day. AMC reports today, the RTY should be smoke house on the Pump into $14 Popcorn. A tale of desperation as Rate Sensitive TECH isn't ready for a large retracement in 10Yr Yields. The Federal Reserve clearly overstepped its Credibility with YCC and CONfidence. A large selloff in TECH continues to be setting up. We are positioning for the final push into the SELL. Can the Riggers hit 15364? We shall see, it is a clear SELL up to this level. Inflation Data this week will keep things range bound until ZN decides there is a decided need to begin an all-in strategy for SELLERs.
PShort
by HK_L61
1
Global Quad 2I want to apologize for my lack of activity the past few months. A lot has changed in the markets and a lot has evolved in my approach to reading and navigating the markets. When it comes to my process, I have added the use of multiple lenses beginning first with a fundamental macro overlay called the GIP (Growth, Inflation, Policy) Quad Model, which give us 4 possible macroeconomic environments on a rate of change basis that we are in and could be headed towards. This model protected investors in advance of the 2020 crash with big positions in cash, bonds, and puts and it had its users in Gold and TLT from 3Q2018 until 3Q20. This model also has its users begin shorting USDs and buying commodities and Emerging markets beginning in May 2020. It is impossible to be perfect in markets and the model has made mistakes but overall it has convinced me it is a model worth using and paying attention to. Currently the GIP Model is showing the global economy already in Quad 2 and headed towards a Deep Quad 2 topping out by the 2nd quarter of 2021. Quad 2 is the macroeconomic environment where both economic growth and inflation are accelerating simultaneously. What many equity bears, bond bulls, and gold bulls are missing is that in 1Q20 the global economy hit rock bottom and there is only one direction out of an absolute rock bottom. Whether that's going sideways, a slow grind higher, or a better than expected recovery, all of those outcomes give us something that is better than what the economy was in the March of 2020. It is all about the Rate of Change, this is what the market cares about. Yes, we are in a recession, but the direction the economy is headed right now is different than the direction it was headed in at the start of 2020. On the Margin, a Biden-Kamala administration means: - Less trade war with both allies and foes. A move away from nationalism and isolationism. - Continued push for more stimulus - Giving the Federal Reserve the power to spend not just lend. Retail Central Bank accounts with digital currency stimulus checks etc.. - Possible stimulus directly from the executive branch - Republicans forget that Biden and Kamala are corporatists first and foremost and not nearly as far left as Fox news says. So, this means $DXY continues its downtrend, potentially hitting 80, 70, and maybe a new all-time low over the next 4 years. In the short-term, DXY's trend range is 91-88. Many Gold Bulls are confused why Gold and Silver haven't rallied to new highs despite DXY dropping to new lows, and the reason is because yields have risen alongside expectations for slightly better growth in 2021, higher growth expectations means investors will want to take on more risk in stocks and commodities over yield-sensitive safe havens like bonds and precious metals. AT THE SAME TIME, I still think silver miners and junior miners can do alright in Quad 2 even as the metals themselves stagnate because the amount of money the miners are making is pretty ridiculous. The miners that are well-positioned to expand production into an elevated gold price environment will have accelerating earnings which makes their stock attractive. An example of such a stock is $AUMN Golden Minerals. You really can't go wrong with anything in the commodities. Since the election energy, materials, and industrials have been great places to be. I think energy will continue to be a strong winner. That includes USOIL, Natural Gas, and Uranium. I think the agriculture complex can surprise to upside, including oranges, cocoa, coffee, and cattle. And the Covid losers, in general, will continue to outperform the Covid winners if yields continue to rise (study the US10Y) which is spurred by increases in expectations for future growth and inflation. This is why Copper has been smoking gold lately. Another way to play the steepening yield curve, is $IVOL, which is a low volatility and asymmetric way to play interest rates if you think bonds are overpriced. So to summarize: Bearish on bonds until Q2 of 2020, Bullish on global equities, Bearish on the US Dollar, Bearish on VIX, and on the margin bearish gold and neutral on silver, but bullish on some of the well-positioned gold and silver equities. Once this Quad 2 growth peaks in Q2, or maybe the model output pulls the probability forward of growth peaking in late Q1, whenever that point ends up being we will pivot towards being long gold and silver and shorting Chinese stocks, Oil, Russell 2000, Nasdaq, Financials, etc. but that will be later in 2021 with a Quad 3 or 4 environments (Quad 3 rising inflation falling growth, Quad 4 Falling inflation falling growth). Basically the bullish case is this: - Economy hit rock-bottom in March - Fed overshot monetary policy by a mile - Fiscal stimulus was like 10x the 2009 Fiscal stimulus - A lot more stim is on the way with Biden-Kamala - Biden-Kamala also means more global trade, less volatility in foreign policy - Travel restrictions become loosened as vaccine distributions take place - Highly unlikely that most of the USA and most of the world ever sees anymore covid shutdowns
TVC:US10YLong
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
AUD/CAD Short-Sighted Bull RallyLet's think about this. The Australian Dollar is considered a risk-on asset who has high trade tensions with its biggest trade partner. Risk-on Equities are falling, so why shouldn't the AUD fall too. Well, the market is short-sightedly buying over the good CPI numbers which are front-loaded. I expect to see the AUD fall more in line with other risk assets. Of course, this rally is partially due to CAD weakness as well (due to oil), but the CAD is a safer asset than the AUD. Remember I am not your financial advisor.
Short
by TogamiTrader
XLF- Mac-D serving as an early buy signal.AMEX:XLF has seen some channel trading from 2018 too early this year. Finding its range peak in February of 2020 it crashed hard and has been working it's way up since. In red and green (A-D) are the main support and resistance levels and I have noted on the MAC-D where price has reversed, and also accounted for some major financial events such as the Chinese trade war and COVID-19 pandemic. XLF seems to have found its new channel and will either retest its support on the downside and hold the channel or test the SMAs as resistance on the upside and possibly find its way into the former price range leading up to the election. I am going to use MAC-D as my signal to buy as we near a cross.
AMEX:XLF
by crawfordpaul
RidetheMacro| USDCNH Market Commentary 2020.09.22✅ The optimistic numbers have proved that the world’s second largest economy is steadily recovering from the virus slump. Notably, the pair has already been falling for the 6th week in a row, therefore the report has just added tailwinds to the yuan. Moreover, the massive sell-off of the USD pushed the pair to the downside as well 📉. 📌 It’s impossible to ignore the US-China complicated relationship. There was some sign of improvement after the report of the successful phone call between two countries Recent weeks. China and the USA have promised to obey the phase-1 trade agreement, that encouraged investors. Nevertheless, there is still some uncertainty ahead of the election of the US president in November, which may significantly affect Sino-American relations. other side 📍 The Chinese central bank, the PBoC, kept the 1Y Loan Prime Rate at 3.85% and the 5Y Loan Prime Rate at 4.65%. The last time the central bank cut rates was in March.
Short
by Ridethemacro
USD CNH - Escalation of Tensions !Relationships between the U.S and China have been deteriorating at a really fast pace since the begging of the Trade War between both countries back in 2018, where hundreds of billions of dollars in taxes over nationals goods, were exchanged. Despite the escalation of tensions, Trump's primary goal was to try to please the agricultural sector, since the farmer's states integrate a meaningful part of its electorate, so aiming re-election the promise of China in boosting its purchases of U.S agricultural goods served Trump needs. However, the disastrous response of Trump to the COVID-19 outbreak in the U.S and other domestic crises has put its chances of re-election in jeopardy. With almost 3 million cases confirmed and more than 130,000 American lives ended, plus the massive riots across the country due to the murder of George Floyd by cops and the economic crisis that is hitting the country with an unemployment rate of 13.3%. A context that has been causing the growth of the dissatisfaction of the population with the state of the country, such discontentment is already appearing on the recent polls that put the Democrat candidate Joe Biden in a 10 points lead over Trump. With the risk of losing re-election, Trump might use the oldest trick of the book of governors that want to unify the country and take the focus off its own failures, create a common enemy. In this case, China its the perfect fit, since the country was the first to report the new Coronavirus and has been moving to curb Hong Kong autonomy through the new security law. So Trump can target China first by blaming the country over the pandemic, and retaliating in defense of Hong Kong democracy, placing then meaningful sanctions and increasing the friction between both countries. Looking at the monthly chart, the US Dollar Chinese Yuan Offshore is in a very intrigue spot now since the price is moving accordingly to the Elliott Wave rules so far, with a Wave 3 in process of formation. After the price confirmed a Wave 2 due to the retracement of near 76.4% of Wave 1, the CNH managed to surpass the top of Wave 1 confirming a possible Wave 3 that has the following targets based on the rules that determine the extension of this wave: Targets: 1) 7.80869 - 161.8% of wave 1-2 2) 8.18008 - 200% of wave 1-2 3) 8.78091 - 261.8% of wave 1-2 4) 9.38174 - 323.6% of wave 1-2 This context shows us the possibilities of this new large impulse movement of the USD CNH been the reflection of the rasing of tensions between China and the U.S, as China will fight to increase the yuan relevance on the market as the U.S will try to undermine China influence on the global economy. Thanks for reading, please feel free to share your comments and perspectives below, I'm still grinding my way to improve my analysis, so all feedback is welcome. "A crisis is an opportunity riding the dangerous wind" - Chinese Proverb
Long
by Ikaro_Soares
USD/RUB, targeting 77.174 (big move coming)Backdrop Rapidly escalating trade war tensions between US and China and concerns on a potential second wave of covid-19 continue to linger. President Putin faces many challenges domestically, and his policies could ultimately impact the direction on the ruble. Trouble at home Russia is struggling to contain covid-19 at home and is on track to remain top 3 in the number of confirmed cases. While the death toll of 3,388 is significantly lower than most EU countries, I would take this figure with a grain of salt. In fact, the same view can be applied across all countries as every government classifies the deceased in a different way. Nevertheless, over the past month, President Putin announced the gradual easing of restrictions, with local governors given the ability to decide on implementations and timelines. This is slightly uncommon given how tight Putin has run his ship, but also a strategic move on his part given that he could shift the blame on local governors should there be a rise in infections. It's noteworthy that President Putin's approval rating is already at its lowest since his inauguration in 1999. Given that Russia is heading towards its most serious recession since 1998, his base of support could decline further in the next several months. Putin's administration can take all the credit if easing plans bode well for the economy. China - Catch 22 Russia has built strong ties with China over the past decade amid deteriorating relationships with the West. President Putin cannot afford to take the same stance as US President Trump on blaming China's alleged mishandling of covid-19 given China is its biggest strategic partner and hedge against the US and EU. What can Russia do? Putin could either divert attention by increasing geopolitical tensions (vis-a-vis Crimea type of move). However, such a bold strategy could do more harm than good. The only way out seems to be shifting focus towards structural and regulatory reforms, and reducing corruption. In fact, there is more incentive to diversify its economy now given the sharp drop in oil prices. However, Putin's administration has yet to deploy massive fiscal support (as seen by other countries). I suspect this will come towards the end of the year; the reluctance may have to do with timing of the referendum (his political plan is to remain as Russia's president potentially until 2036). Rate cut implications Last month, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) lowered its rate by 50 bps to 5.50% in line with market expectations, while signaling for more cuts to come to reduce recessionary risks. The pair retreated in response to CBR's dovishness and rate cut. At this stage, I don't see rate cuts as a big deal given every central bank is easing, so long as the CBR's word remains credible. If the latter does not hold, currency interventions may be required to stop RUB depreciation. Technical analysis I believe we are in favor of a move higher in the pair as we breakout from a descending triangle pattern. There are plenty of shorter time frame technical analysis on the pair - that's not the ultimate focus here, but rather to take a directional view based on fundamental analysis. Risks / opportunities On the contrary, RUB could be one of the most attractive EM plays if Putin's administration can weather the storm and implement comprehensive economic reforms. Currently, I am not of that bullish view, particularly on the backdrop of covid-19, while any heightened tensions between the US and China is a negative for RUB. As such, targeting near April highs of 77.174 as an initial target with stop loss set (at 69.946) under the support zone of around 72.700.
Long
by Miloslaw
6
USDCHF is Approaching a Level That Should Scare the BullsThe rally from wave c of Y low on 16th Jan 2020 has been unfolding as a double zigzag corrective wave. Corrective structure moves in the opposite direction of the major trend, that's once the wave y of X is completed, the bearish trend should resume. I'm anticipating the correction to complete at the daily resistance zone that lined up with the moving average. Watch out for bearish price action signals from that zone to confirm the completion of correction. What's your thought on USDCHF?
Short
by Veejahbee
USD INDEX Is Setting Up for Potential DeclineThe decline from 99.66 unfolded as a leading diagonal structure, labeled i-ii-iii-iv-v. According to Elliot Wave theory, leading diagonal always point toward the direction of the major trend. Also, once a five-wave impulse is completed a three-wave retracement follows. In the Dollar Index case, the corrective pattern seems to be unfolded as a w-x-y double zigzag and has fulfilled the requirement. Confluence that the price is also sitting at a resistance zone and approaching 78.6 Fib, a bearish reversal is imminent. While the 99.66 invalidation level remains intact, watch out for bearish price action signal from the resistance zone. The breach of the Flag channel or blue horizontal line will confirm the bearish setup. What's your view on Dollar?
TVC:DXYShort
by Veejahbee
💎 BTC and MSCI China ETF: reversal correlation of prices! Thumb UP👍 if you find this chart interesting! 👨🏻‍💻This chart shows a strong reversal correlation of prices between one of the famous classic financial instruments NYSE:MSCI and BTC. So you have one more indicator in your trading strategy! What do you guys think about it? Let's discuss in a comment! ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 🚀Let me remind you that Bitcoin was created as a response to the crisis in the real estate market that broke out in 2008 and had serious consequences for the entire economy. Over time, the cryptocurrency managed to win the interest of traditional investors, who began to consider BTC as one of the hedging tools against geopolitical risks.  This is particularly evident during the escalation of the trade war between the US and China. Then the bitcoin exchange rate significantly strengthened, as many believed that it could offer them protection from shocks in the financial markets. It is noteworthy that this happened against the background of falling stock indexes. It is no secret that the main players in the cryptocurrency market are Asians, especially Chinese. Historically, it can be traced that when panic sales of classic cyclical assets begin in China due to increased geopolitical or other risks, there is an increase in bitcoin. Thus, the Chinese population is trying to protect their assets. Therefore, it can be argued that the further growth of tensions in trade relations between the United States and the rest of the world, the Outbreak of the virus epidemic, is likely to fuel interest in "digital gold". And in General, classical markets need a correction, at least technical, the American stock market has been growing continuously for more than 10 years, the reason for this can be any, why not a Coronavirus? ✅ Investors need a reason to fix previously earned profits and then the fall can develop like a snowball. This situation can be a moment of truth for bitcoin. If the cryptocurrency manages to establish itself in the status of a protective asset, this can give a strong impetus to the further growth of the BTC. Look at my other interesting charts below!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Fandorinn
7
ORBEX: Equities Continue Recording All-Time Highs!US Retails Sales, corporate earnings and now Chinese consumer data add on to the equities rally! Despite US equities having reached overbought levels, phase one seems to be working well on global #indices. All eyes will turn to Davos this week, central banks' decisions and also the widely anticipate Trump’s impeachment trial. Let’s see how equities will pan out. Trade safe Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Orbex
RH - buy set upThis is a continuation of my previous chart. I am providing an update and will do that regularly on this chart as this is a set up stage and we are in a very interesting timezone for this stock. The important number for us to look for closing price on this chart is 219.39 on support and 229.64 for positive breakout confirmation. Price opened at 221.83 quickly fell to a low of 218.22, but the bulls pulled the prices higher and the day closed stronger at 223.28 The area we find ourselves is a strong congestion zone where we have seen price finding a lot of small real bodies floating around signaling lack of control on either side. Traders have felt confused with the lack of clear direction and as expected, volume in this zone of trading has been lower than normal. Lets’ look ahead, I have my eyes on the magic number of 229.64 for a breakout to seek further action for my upside target Target 1 : 244 Larger 2 : 270-275 levels Please share a thumbs up if you like what you see and you could also share your comments in the section below Cheers
NYSE:RHLong
by LoveForCharts
2
ORBEX: With US-China Done, All Eyes on Brexit Now!The US and China signed a partial deal yesterday, putting a temporary stop to global uncertainty! Without that being the end of the trade war, at least we can now wait and see if China respects the signed terms over the next few months... Are emerging markets affected by the fresh rhetoric since China is supported, or should we just focus on monetary policy, particularly in South Africa today? Market participants will now look at the EU and UK for a resolution on the Brexit front. Will the House of Lords prevent a January exit? And how will the EC react about an 11-month transition if they won't? Watch our analyses on euro-pound and the SA rand! Timestamp EURGBP 8H 02:15 USDZAR 8H 04:45 Trade safe Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
6