Geopolitical Oil Shocks May Be Short-Lived and Prices May Fall
Crude oil prices are climbing by over 1% today across both Brent and West Texas Intermediate, approaching their highest levels since January.
These gains are driven by rising concerns over the fallout from a potential escalation in the Israel–Iran war, especially with the prospect of direct U.S. military involvement that could widen the conflict and threaten oil supplies from the Middle East.
Talks are intensifying around a possible U.S. strategic bomber strike on Iran’s Fordow uranium enrichment facility. Such a move would mark a dangerous new phase of escalation, raising the risk of supply disruptions from key oil-exporting countries via the Strait of Hormuz or the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, according to several analysts and opinion columnists . Iran’s major oil export facilities may also be pulled into the conflict sooner rather than later.
Any attack on these energy assets could trigger a price shock that sends oil soaring toward $130 per barrel, according to estimates from JPMorgan .
The first step toward this new phase of escalation may not be far off, as former President Trump appears unshaken by potential consequences—the include regional instability to possible retaliatory attacks on U.S. and allied interests abroad. According to Axios , he is doubtful about the effectiveness of the bunker-busting bombs intended for a Fordow strike.
Even without such a strike, a prolonged conflict with little hope for a diplomatic resolution would likely increase the vulnerability of global oil flows, as reported by the Wall Street Journal earlier this week. However, such disruptions are expected to remain short-term, in my opinion.
In the longer run, this war is unlikely to be sustainable in its current form. Israel is reportedly facing a dwindling supply of interceptor missiles, with reserves potentially lasting just 12 more days at the current rate of Iranian rocket fire, according to experts cited by The Washington Post . The Journal also quoted a U.S. official who mentioned a decline in Israel’s supply of Arrow missiles used to intercept ballistic threats.
In my view, Israel will likely avoid reaching such a tipping point unless it achieves a decisive turning point in the conflict, whether through sidelining U.S. involvement or toppling Iran’s regime. If neither is achieved, Israel may resort to targeting Iran’s oil and gas export infrastructure to enforce a surrender. This action that could send oil prices into shock in the coming days. A drawn-out war in its current form is unsustainable for either side.
Still, a diplomatic solution is not entirely off the table. A senior Iranian foreign ministry official told the New York Times that Tehran may accept Trump’s offer to meet soon for a potential ceasefire discussion. Such developments could reduce the geopolitical risk premium priced into oil and potentially push U.S. crude back below $70 per barrel.
In any case, I believe any shock to oil prices would likely be temporary, as major producers are generally capable of offsetting short-term supply disruptions unless we enter into extreme scenarios, as noted by the Wall Street Journal’s Editorial Board earlier this week.
On another front, oil prices are also under increasing pressure from concerns around prolonged monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. Jerome Powell’s speech yesterday disappointed markets, striking a more hawkish and cautious tone than before on interest rate cuts.
Policymakers have grown increasingly wary of inflation risks, particularly with the renewed trade war and rising geopolitical tensions, which could potentially push inflation above 3 percent again.
Such extended tightening could weigh further on economic growth or even trigger a recession, dragging down oil demand and keeping prices on a downward trajectory.
Monetary tightening risks also overlap with persistent negative signals from China. Despite improvements in retail sales and declining unemployment, both industrial production and fixed-asset investment slowed unexpectedly in May. Goldman Sachs also expects continued weakness in China’s housing market, which could remain at just a quarter of its 2017 peak level for years to come.
Should trade negotiations between the U.S. and China fail, both economies and oil prices could face further downward pressure.
Samer Hasn
Tradewar
Gold Loses Shine Amid Hopes the Middle East War Remains Under Co
Gold is showing little movement today, holding near $2,386 per ounce after a drop of over 1.4% yesterday.
This weak performance comes as market fears over the fallout from the Israel-Iran conflict have eased. Investors are hopeful that energy supplies flowing from the region to the rest of the world will not face major disruption.
Scenarios that could shock oil prices, according to Axios , include Israel striking Iran’s key export facilities, Iran targeting production sites in the region, or the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. None of these developments have occurred so far, which has kept fears of renewed inflation and persistently high interest rates in check.
The Editorial Board of the Wall Street Journal believes that global oil production capacity can absorb supply disruptions unless they are catastrophic, such as a closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
As long as the conflict does not severely disrupt energy supplies, markets may downplay its impact. This limits the geopolitical risk premium that would otherwise support further gains in gold prices.
However, if diplomacy fails to contain the conflict soon, Iran may choose to escalate it by shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, according to experts cited by The Journal . This concern could prompt the US and Gulf states to intensify diplomatic efforts or even pull the US directly into the conflict.
Beyond the military situation, markets are watching developments in the US-China trade dispute, where talks have yet to make meaningful progress. The lack of a breakthrough could push the US to impose restrictions on semiconductor exports and manufacturing equipment, threatening billions in American corporate sales, according to The Journal .
Such moves might trigger further escalation by China, which holds leverage through its dominance in rare earth metals. Renewed tensions could disrupt supply chains and drive inflation even higher.
Although recent inflation data do not suggest a sudden surge in prices, experts told The New York Times that the effects of tariffs and supply chain disruption may take months or even over a year to feed through to consumer prices. This is partly because sellers can rely on pre-tariff stockpiles and offer discounts for a period.
Failure to resolve these issues could see inflation rebound, keeping interest rates high at levels that the economy may not be able to bear. The chief economics commentator at The Journal wrote last week that the Federal Reserve should shift its focus from fighting inflation to supporting the economy through rate cuts, given signs of labor market weakness.
Persistently high rates or further increases, along with rising bond yields, may not weigh on gold. On the contrary, they could support demand for the safe-haven asset as worries about slowing growth and recession deepen.
Uncertainty in the bond market remains high compared to levels before the Ukraine war in 2022, as shown by the ICE BofAML TVC:MOVE index, which measures fear in the US Treasury bond market. This could limit the downward pressure of rising yields on gold prices.
Markets are awaiting tomorrow’s Fed decision on interest rates, with attention focused on Jerome Powell’s remarks after the announcement. A stronger Fed stance on keeping rates elevated for longer might temporarily pressure gold. However, renewed concerns about economic growth could quickly restore demand for the yellow metal.
Data from China also continue to fuel economic worries. Recent figures show industrial production and fixed-asset investment growth slowing more than expected, which could bolster demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
Samer Hasn
Weekly Market Outlook: FOMC, Trade Deals and GeopoliticsIt is a holiday-shortened week, with the majority of markets halting early on Thursday, June 19, 2025, in observance of Juneteenth. See here for holiday trading schedule
Key Themes to Monitor This Week
Geopolitical Risks
Any outside intervention in the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict will likely be seen as a risk-off event by market participants. Despite Friday’s sell-off, markets shrugged off during the Sunday open and overnight sessions.
There are potential risks to trade routes and energy infrastructure, although disruptions seem unlikely at the moment. Amena Bakr at Kpler noted that, so far, there are no signs of disruptions in oil loadings from Iran. Without a supply outage, there is no pressing need for additional barrels to be brought onto the market.
Trade War and Trade Deals
There have been recent developments with the U.S. reaching key trade deal milestones with several countries. The baseline scenario remains optimistic, with expectations for an extension in negotiations and potential reciprocal tariffs for countries failing to reach agreements.
FED Week
This is a key week for U.S. monetary policy, with the FOMC decision, Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), and Chair Powell’s press conference scheduled.
Traders will be closely watching how the Fed’s inflation and growth expectations have evolved, as reflected in the SEP. All eyes will be on the dot plot to note how interest rate expectations have evolved since last quarter. Of note: Will President Trump’s continued calls for rate cuts influence Chair Powell’s tone or guidance?
Expectations for the Week Ahead
NQ futures have continued one-time framing higher, consistently creating higher lows since the week of April 21, 2025. A strong support zone exists below, anchored at the yearly Volume Point of Control (VPOC) and the Anchored VWAP from May 11, 2025, when markets gapped higher.
Key Levels to Watch
• yVAH: 22,690.50
• R2: 22,510
• R1 / Previous Week High: 22,322.50
• May 11 AVWAP: 21,672.25
• yVPOC: 21,660
Scenario 1: Market Grinds Higher but Stays Cautious
Despite several looming risk factors, the market could continue to grind higher. In this scenario, we anticipate a test above the prior week's high, followed by a potential pullback into last week’s range.
Example Trade Idea 1
• Entry: 22,000
• Stop: 21,930
• Target: 22,322
• Risk: 70 pts
• Reward: 322 pts
• Risk-Reward Ratio: 4.6R
Scenario 2: Pullback to Support, Range-Bound Consolidation
If the market pulls back, we expect the yearly VPOC and AVWAP from May 11 to act as key support levels. In this case, price action may remain range-bound within the previous week’s range, forming an inside week.
Example Trade Idea 2
• Entry: 21,672
• Stop: 21,600
• Target: 22,000
• Risk: 72 pts
• Reward: 328 pts
• Risk-Reward Ratio: 4.6R
________________________________________
Glossary
• VPOC: Volume Point of Control
• VA: Value Area
• VAL: Value Area Low
• VAH: Value Area High
• VP: Volume Profile
• AVP: Anchored Volume Profile
• Y: Yearly
• pWk: Previous Week
USD/JPY takes fresh dip on renewed trade uncertaintyThanks to ongoing trade uncertainty and troubles in the bond market, the USD/JPY looks like is going to end the week on a negative note, after coming down sharply in the last day and a half, which means the weekly gains have more than halved.
The US dollar had actually clawed back a bit of ground in early Friday trading after taking a hit the day before. The rebound came despite fresh drama around Donald Trump’s tariff policies, which—unsurprisingly—are once again stirring the pot. A federal appeals court gave the president a temporary lifeline, pausing a ruling that could have derailed much of his economic agenda.
The White House team wasted no time doubling down: Trump, they insist, isn’t backing off. Tariffs are sticking around. But the mood got murkier when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent admitted that US-China trade talks are “a bit stalled.” Then came Trump’s latest post on Truth Social, where he accused China of “totally violating” the trade deal with the US.
Markets didn’t take it well. US indices dipped, USD/JPY slid, and even the euro managed to push the dollar back a touch.
As well as well as trade uncertainty eyes will turn to incoming US data next week, among them the monthly jobs report on Friday.
The US jobs report is always important as it could impact the Fed’s future policy decisions. Traders will want to see whether the trade war uncertainty is negatively impacting the jobs market too, after several macro data, including consumption data in GDP report and consumer sentiment surveys, have come out weaker in recent weeks. JOLTS jobs data and ISM PMIs are also due out earlier in the week.
The US dollar has been under pressure in the last three months or so, with the euro performing admirably during this time despite US tariffs.
With the US recently losing its final top-tier credit rating at the hands of Moody’s a couple of weeks ago, investors are worried that debt concerns and government spending will push yields even higher and thus they are shorting Treasuries and the dollar, buying foreign currencies, including the euro. This makes the EUR/USD outlook remain fairly resilient around the 1.12-1.15 range.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Nvidia Earnings Boost, Trade Tariffs Legitimacy, NQ trade ideaCME_MINI:NQ1!
Big Picture Context: .
NQ futures rallied after NVIDIA posted an earnings beat and after the Manhattan-based Court of International Trade blocked President Trump's Liberation Day tariffs.
Goldman Sachs noted that the ruling on Liberation Day tariffs gives the administration 10 days to halt tariff collection, but does not affect sectoral tariffs. The administration can still impose across-the-board and country-specific tariffs under other legal authorities.
Jobless claims and continuing claims have come in higher.
What has the market done?
The rally faded in the overnight session. However, the catalysts provided energy for prices to move higher. Currently, price is trading above the prior week’s high, yesterday’s high, and it is also trading above the yearly open, and 2025 VPOC and mcVPOC for the last 3 weeks.
What is it trying to do?
The market is negating the recent bear market territory sell-off and negating a bear market rally. It is propelling higher.
How good of a job is it doing?
The market has created good structure and micro composites, despite some gaps left open, and it has created higher lows since last Friday.
What is more likely to happen from here?
Scenario 1: Long Continuation
In this scenario, we are looking for NQ to turn at the immediate 2025 LVN support area. If it edges higher, we will be looking for potential long opportunities above the 21710–21720 area, targeting overnight highs and potentially the next HVN.
Scenario 2: Gap Close and Reversal
In this scenario, we are looking for a pullback, testing pHi and pWk-Hi. We will look for a rounded base that consolidates here on a lower timeframe, such as the 5-minute timeframe, and look for a reversal back towards the 21710–21720 level.
pWk-Hi: prior Week's High
pHi: prior Day's High
HVN: High Volume Node
LNV: Low Volume Node
VPOC: Volume Point of Control
C: Composite (prefix before VAL, VAH, VPOC, VP, AVP)
mC: micro-Composite (prefix before VAL, VAH, VPOC, VP, AVP)
$SPX / $SP500 – China Deal or Global Meltdown? The Risk/Reward 📉 The S&P 500 ( SP:SPX / VANTAGE:SP500 / $ES_F) is at a geopolitical crossroads.
After the Global Pause, the index rebounded, but only to retest resistance near the 200-day EMA. Now it faces a binary outcome:
Scenario A: ✅ Deal with China
Estimated probability: 20%
Potential upside: +10%
Expected value: +2%
Scenario B: ❌ No Deal with China
Estimated probability: 80%
Potential downside: -50%
Expected value: -40%
📉 Expected move: -38% net Markets are not priced for this. Volatility ( TVC:VIX ) is quietly coiling under the surface (chart 2), ready to explode if the no-deal scenario materializes.
Is the Golden Arches Losing Its Shine?McDonald's, a global fast-food icon, recently reported its most significant decline in U.S. same-store sales since the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The company experienced a 3.6 percent drop in the quarter ending in March, a downturn largely attributed to the economic uncertainty and diminished consumer confidence stemming from President Donald Trump's tariff policies. This performance indicates that the unpredictable nature of the trade war is prompting consumers to curb discretionary spending, directly impacting even seemingly resilient sectors like fast food through reduced customer visits.
The link between sinking consumer sentiment and tangible sales figures is evident, as economic analysts note the conversion of "soft data" (sentiment) into "hard data" (sales). While some commentators suggest that McDonald's price increases have contributed to the sales slump, the timing of the decline aligns closely with a period of heightened tariff-related anxiety and a contraction in the U.S. economy during the first quarter. This suggests that while pricing is a factor, the broader macroeconomic environment shaped by trade tensions plays a critical role.
In response, McDonald's emphasizes value offerings to attract and retain customers navigating a challenging economic landscape. The company's struggles mirror those of other businesses in the hospitality sector, which also report reduced consumer spending on dining out. The situation at McDonald's serves as a clear illustration of how complex trade policies and the resulting economic uncertainty can have far-reaching consequences, affecting diverse industries and altering consumer behavior on a fundamental level.
Is the US Dollar Preparing for a Bullish Comeback?The DXY is currently maintaining a bullish setup amid trade negotiations, election developments, and anticipation of key leading U.S. economic indicators this week.
An inverted head-and-shoulders formation is visible on the 4-hour time frame. A decisive catalyst and a breakout above the 100.00 and 100.30 levels are needed to confirm a more sustained bullish bounce from multi-year lows, with targets at 102.00, 103.30, and 104.70 — reversing recent strength in major global currencies.
On the downside, a breach of the 97.00 level could trigger a decline toward the lower boundary of the long-term uptrend channel established since 2008, aligning with the 92.00 zone, and potentially lifting gold and major currencies globally.
Several key events this week could challenge or reinforce the current bullish setup amid ongoing Trump–China trade negotiations:
U.S. Advance GDP & Core PCE — Wednesday
BOJ Rate Decision & U.S. ISM PMI — Thursday
U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls — Friday
Mega Cap Earnings — Wednesday/Thursday
While long-term signals remain bearish, short-term charts suggest a potential bullish recovery, with trade negotiations likely to tip the balance.
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
EUR/JPY Technical Outlook: Demand Zone Bounce Sets Up RallyGood Morning Traders,
Trust you are good.
Below is my analysis of the EURJPY pair.
Overview
Price is currently at 161.243, showing signs of a bullish rebound following a sharp drop. A clear bullish structure is forming, characterized by higher lows and a breakout from a recent consolidation zone. The demand zone between 160.900 and 161.100 has held strong, acting as a reliable support level.
Idea
A recent bullish impulse broke above minor resistance, followed by a healthy retracement into the demand zone—shaping a potential bullish flag or continuation pattern. This retracement aligns with the 50% Fibonacci level, providing added confluence for a continuation to the upside.
The projected target is 164.174, a level likely to contain buy-side liquidity and act as a magnet for price in the short term.
Conclusion
Despite macro uncertainty due to ongoing trade tensions, recent news of a 90-day tariff pause from Trump has eased some pressure, allowing the EUR to show resilience. As a result, EUR/JPY may continue its bullish push toward the 164.174 target. However, a break below 160.245 would invalidate this outlook.
Cheers and happy trading!
Trump vs. Powell: 4d Gold Price Roller Coaster📊 Summary of Recent 4 Trading Days
During the ongoing US-China trade war, President Trump has ramped up his public criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Though he lacks the authority to remove Powell directly it seems, Trump's frustration with the Fed’s independent policy direction has led to an apparent institutional power struggle.
This conflict hasn’t gone unnoticed by the markets. Just the mention of removing Powell caused the gold price to spike, as stock market money got squeezed out, amplified by tensions in the trade war. The Federal Reserve’s credibility is high, so such remarks naturally trigger significant volatility.
After Trump's initial outburst, gold surged $216. But when he softened his tone, the price reversed just as dramatically—falling about $240 (with the trading day still ongoing at the time). Hopes for progress in trade negotiations also played a role in this sharp reversal.
⚠️ Warning Signs of Market Distortion
Statements from the US President now function almost like market-moving events in addition to normal news. For gold traders, this creates an unstable environment where typical technical setups may fail.
The past days showed signs of manipulated or artificial movements—with potential insider activity. One notable example: Gold looked set to break higher after a 1-hour candle closed above the EMA 20 line. But a sudden $12 bearish candle in the last 30 seconds erased the setup. It felt orchestrated—possibly by institutional players defending key levels.
💡 Trader’s Takeaway
Don’t blindly trust technical signals in this environment.
Watch for political noise—it’s louder than usual.
Prefer quieter markets if you’re risk-averse.
Expect $100+ daily ranges and frequent price whipsaws.
🗣 What’s your take?
Is Trump really influencing the gold market on purpose—or just creating chaos? Let’s discuss below. 👇
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly.
Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊
Why Did 3M Stock Soar Despite Tariff Clouds?Shares of industrial giant 3M Co. experienced a significant rally following the release of its first-quarter 2025 financial results. The surge was primarily driven by the company reporting adjusted earnings and total net sales that exceeded Wall Street's expectations. This performance signaled a stronger operational footing than analysts had anticipated.
The positive results stemmed from several key factors highlighted in the report. 3M demonstrated solid organic sales growth and achieved notable adjusted operating margin expansion. This margin improvement reflects the effectiveness of management's ongoing cost-cutting initiatives and strategic focus on operational efficiency, contributing directly to double-digit growth in earnings per share during the quarter.
While the company did warn about potential future impacts on 2025 profit due to rising global trade tensions and tariffs, management also detailed proactive strategies to mitigate these risks. Plans include supply chain adjustments, pricing actions, and leveraging their global manufacturing network, potentially increasing U.S. production. The company maintained its full-year adjusted earnings guidance, notably stating that this outlook already incorporates the anticipated tariff effects. Investors likely responded positively to the combination of strong quarterly performance and clear actions to address identified headwinds.
Noise, S&P Scenario, Gold BubbleThank you to the tradingview community for engaging and supporting my content.
After another rough start to the week, we have a bit of a crossroads ahead for the S&P
1) We revisit the April 7 lows and poke lower with bear trap opportunities
2) We hold Monday April 21 lows and grind back up to gap fill and revisit 5400-5500 resistance
3) We go nowhere with a lot of intraday volatility and noise (between the April 7 low and the April 9 high)
The markets are on high alert
DXY
Gold
Bitcoin
US Bonds vs Treasuries (yields rising)
Trump is more vocal about threatening the FED or firing Powell and the concern is truly unprecedented
Trade War pause is still ongoing, China is being vocal as well to make sure countries don't simply line up to support the US. For all of this to calm down, US and China have to play nice. China is likely able to hold the line longer than the US in the near-term
Thanks for watching!!!
EURUSD Holds Below 3-Year HighsAs the U.S. dollar lingers near 3-year lows, the euro is testing 3-year highs—holding critical resistance zone at 1.1520.
This level marks a pivotal point, further challenging the broader downtrend that has shaped the EUR/USD chart since 2008.
A confirmed breakout above 1.1520 could open the door to further upside toward 1.17 and 1.20, revisiting the highs last seen in 2021.
Should the euro fail to break higher and begin to retreat, key support levels to watch include 1.1270, 1.1140, 1.1000, and 1.0920.
A potential pullback may be amplified if overbought momentum begins to fade—particularly as the current 3-day RSI levels echo those last observed in 2020.
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
Crude Oil Holds at Key ResistanceFollowing a sharp rebound from the $55 low—mirroring broader market strength and gains in U.S. indices—oil is now hovering near a key resistance level at $64. Meanwhile, major U.S. indices remain below their respective resistance zones, awaiting confirmation of further uptrends.
A sustained break and hold above $64 could open the door for additional upside toward $66 and $70.
On the downside, if gains fail to hold and prices slip back below $64, support levels to watch are $60, $58, and $55.
A decisive break below $55 may trigger a steeper decline, potentially driving oil prices back toward the $49 per barrel region.
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
USDCAD Forecast: Key Levels in SightFollowing softer Canadian CPI data, the Bank of Canada held interest rates steady at 2.75%, sending USDCAD toward the 1.3820 support level — an area that aligns with the November 2024 lows and a key resistance zone extending back to the highs of September 2022.
The 1.3820 low aligns with the 0.272 Fibonacci retracement of the uptrend from May 2021 to January 2025. This support also coincides with RSI levels not seen since 2021.
A sustained hold and reversal from this zone may push the pair toward 1.4040, 1.4150, 1.4350, and eventually 1.4500. On the downside, a firm break below 1.3820 could open losses toward 1.3670, 1.3570,1.3430, and 1,3270.
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
Gold Price Rollercoaster: Is the Rally Just Beginning?The gold price has had a pretty crazy six days, jumping from 3,014 USD on April 9, 2025, to 3,357 USD on April 17 – that’s a solid 11%+ gain. So, what’s going on now? Is the gold rally over, or could we see even more upside? Let’s break it down.
🔥 What’s driving the gold price?
The big reason behind the recent surge is the trade war between the US and China. Trump has slapped new tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, and Canada, which has shaken things up in the markets. The Fed has also warned that these tariffs are bigger than expected, and could slow down growth and increase inflation.
When things get uncertain, investors tend to rush to safe havens like gold, and that’s exactly what’s happening right now. The demand for gold is up, and so is the price.
📉 What does the ECB rate cut mean?
The European Central Bank (ECB) has lowered interest rates by 0.25% today, dropping from 4.5% to 4.25%. They’re trying to help the economy out and ease inflation.
Lower rates mean fixed-income investments aren’t as attractive, which makes gold a better option. But, the US Fed has made it clear they won’t cut rates before June 2025, which could strengthen the US dollar and make gold a little less appealing.
🕊️ What if there’s a trade deal?
Now, imagine there’s a breakthrough – a trade deal, fairer tariffs, and everyone’s calming down. That could change things for gold:
📉 Less risk = less demand for gold: If things chill out, less capital will flow into gold.
💵 Stronger Dollar?: A trade deal could make the US dollar stronger, which isn’t necessarily great for gold. But Trump has made it clear that he doesn't want a strong dollar, since it makes US goods less competitive abroad. Even if the dollar does strengthen, it might put pressure on gold since it becomes more expensive for people using other currencies.
🔁 Money shifts: If things get calmer, investors might move away from gold and back into stocks or bonds for better returns.
So, a deal could definitely slow down or even end this gold rally.
🧭 What does this mean for investors?
Daytraders
For day traders, the current ups and downs can offer some good opportunities, but they also come with risks. The markets are super sensitive to news about the trade war and rate cuts. Quick gains are possible, but you’ve got to be careful. If a trade deal happens, expect the classic “Sell the News” scenario where the market cools off.
Medium-Term Investors (1 Month)
Over the next few weeks, we’ll see if more trade war news or central bank decisions impact the gold price. The rally could keep going, but nothing is guaranteed. If you’re in it for the medium-term, keep your positions flexible and manage risk closely. A trade deal could be bad news for gold, though.
Long-Term Investors
Long-term, gold is still a great way to hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks. The current trends could help gold prices, but keep in mind there could be some ups and downs. If the price drops due to a trade deal, it might actually be a good opportunity to buy.
📊 The Bottom Line
Gold has been on a hot streak lately, driven by the trade war and central bank moves. Whether this rally continues or cools down depends on what happens next. A trade deal could bring a correction. So, keep an eye on things and adjust your strategy accordingly.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly.
Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊
S&P 500 - Key Levels and April 7-11 Weekly Candle StructureApril 7-11 will easily be remembered in 2025 as one of the craziest weeks in modern history.
Intraday swings were face ripping all from a Monday "fake news" becoming Wednesday "real news" with the US pausing tariffs for 90 days
5500 major resistance on S&P
4800 major support on S&P
I believe the market will struggle to provide any clear direction in the coming weeks without some shift in narrative (for better or worse). I'm sure most traders are hoping for an optimistic tone but be prepared to be disappointed as the world's alliances and economies are being strained with massive uncertainty and angst.
There are trading opportunities in the short-term, but I'm not taking any major risks. If I can survive, the upside will be easier and a pleasant surprise.
I expect the weekly candles to dance inside the April 7-11 low and high levels and hopefully it provides some ventilation to a VIX > 30
EUR/USD Holds Steady Near 1.15000The EUR/USD has gained more than 4% over the past three trading sessions, with bullish momentum remaining strong, as markets fear that a continued escalation in the trade war may keep heavy selling pressure on the U.S. dollar. With tariff-related uncertainty persisting, the euro continues to attract capital fleeing the dollar in search of a temporary safe haven.
Bullish Trend
Currently, the most relevant formation on the chart is a short-term bullish trend, which began in early March. Price action has continued to show consistent upward momentum, moving steadily toward the next psychological resistance at 1.15000, which has further reinforced buying pressure in the near term.
However, it's important to note that the volatility seen in recent sessions has been significant, which could open the door to short-term corrective pullbacks.
RSI Indicator
The RSI line has started to oscillate above the overbought level at 70. Additionally, a relevant divergence has begun to emerge: while the RSI continues to post flat highs, the price of EUR/USD is printing higher highs.
These signals suggest a possible imbalance between buying and selling strength, indicating that a short-term correction could be on the horizon.
Key Levels to Watch:
1.15000: A tentative resistance level aligned with a key psychological threshold. Sustained bullish moves above this zone could strengthen the current upward bias and lead to a more pronounced uptrend.
1.11549: A nearby support level, which could act as the first zone of interest if a short-term correction unfolds.
1.09513: A key support area, representing the most important neutral zone tested in recent weeks. A break below this level could put the current bullish structure at risk.
By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
Crude Oil Holds Rebound Above $55Crude oil's sharp rebound from the $55 support—aligned with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the 2020–2022 uptrend—faced immediate resistance at the long-standing support-turned-resistance zone around $63.80, established in 2021.
A decisive move above $63.80 may clear the way for further gains toward $66, $68, $69.60, and ultimately $73. On the downside, a drop below $58 would bring $55 back into focus.
A clean break below that level could trigger further downside toward $49 per barrel, which aligns with the lower boundary of crude oil's long-term uptrend.
With global powers competing for oil, key events this week include:
🔹 OPEC report amid tariffs and efforts to regain market share
🔹 US–China trade talks
🔹 Chinese GDP, IP, Retail Sales (Wed)
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
Tata Motors at ₹600: Support Zone in Focus...
Tata Motors at Key Technical Support: A Long-Term Buying Opportunity..?
Tata Motors is currently trading near the ₹600 level, which marks a significant technical support zone. This level is important not only because of historical price action but also because it aligns with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level of the broader uptrend seen in recent months.
The ₹600 mark has acted as a strong support on the monthly chart, suggesting a potential reversal point for long-term investors looking for value entry. From a purely technical perspective, this level could provide a solid foundation for a possible bounce or even a continuation of the longer-term bullish trend.
However, it is important to note that while technical indicators may suggest an attractive entry point, Tata Motors remains subject to various fundamental factors that could drive volatility in the short to medium term. These include:
- JLR (Jaguar Land Rover) Sales Data
- Quarterly Earnings Results
- Global Tariff and Trade Policy News
These elements can significantly impact investor sentiment and stock performance, sometimes overriding technical signals.
Disclaimer: This analysis is based solely on technical chart patterns and should not be considered financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to conduct your research and consider fundamental factors before making any investment decisions.
Trump Tariffs - Trade War - High Volatility - Key LevelsEasy trading for 2025, right? Haha
We are seeing some of the wildest swings ever in the markets
Extreme intraday swings and volatility is getting everybody's attention
This video discusses all key levels and current seasonality
Hoping for the best and preparing for the worst
British pound keeps rolling as UK GDP shinesThe British pound is up sharply on Friday, extending its rally for a fourth straight day. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3088, up 0.94% on the day. The pound has surged 2.9% since Monday.
UK GDP higher than expected February with a gain of 0.5% m/m. This followed a revised 0% reading in January and beat the market estimate of 0.1%. This was the fastest pace of growth since March 2024. Services, manufacturing and construction all recorded gains. For the three months to January, GDP expanded 0.6%, above the revised 0.3% gain in January and higher than the market estimate of 0.4%.
The strong GDP data is welcome news amid all the uncertainty created by US President Trump's tariff policy. The UK's largest trading partner is the US and the 10% tariffs on UK products will hurt the UK export sector (Trump has suspended an additional 10% tariff for 90 days).
Bank of England expected to lower rates in May
The turmoil in the financial markets and escalating trade tensions has the Bank of England worried. The markets have priced in a rate cut in May, betting that the BoE will ease policy in order to support the weak economy, even with inflation above the 2% target. The BoE kept rates unchanged in March and meets next on May 8.
The US-China trade war rose up a notch on Friday, as China announced it would raise tariffs on US goods to 125% from 84%. This move was in response to the US lifting tariffs on China by 125% this week, for a total tariff rate at 145%. The trade war will dampen China's economy and Goldman Sachs has lowered its 2025 GDP forecast for China to 4.0% from 4.5%.
USD/CHF drops to lowest since 2015The risk-off trade has just gathered pace. A few moments ago, gold hit a new record above $3175 as the dollar sold off, with the USD/CHF dropping to its weakest point since 2015 and stocks extending their drop on lingering trade war concerns.
With risk appetite fading once again, the USD/CHF could be heading down to 0.8000 handle from here, should the breakdown below the key 0.8330-0.8375 zone (now key resistance) holds.
Although the latest US inflation data came in weaker, it doesn't seem to be the main driver behind the dollar’s renewed decline — the greenback was already under pressure before the figures were released. The persistent uncertainty surrounding the trade war continues to weigh on sentiment, keeping the USD/CHF outlook tilted to the downside.
After yesterday’s BIG relief-driven rally, markets are back well in the red today, with the S&P some 6% lower at the time of writing. While Trump’s 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs sparked short-term optimism, the broader picture hasn't improved much. The 10% blanket tariff is still in effect, and cumulative duties on Chinese imports have climbed to a steep 125%. With Beijing likely to respond, the situation remains tense.
Investor caution lingers as the US struggles to secure meaningful trade deals with other key partners, including the EU.
Safe-haven flows into the Japanese yen and Swiss franc suggest that market sentiment remains shaky.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com