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Tradewar

AUD/USD: Fake breakout on dailyHi guys, AUDUSD is forming a promising setup on the daily chart. The price made what looks like a fake breakout with a bearish pinbar candlestick near the 61.8% Fib level. The level also aligns with a horizontal and trendline resistance. The RSI formed a bearish divergence in a pair that is overall in a healthy downtrend. Let's see what today's NFP will give us, and bear in mind that a US-China trade truce or any positive news on that matter may support the Australian dollar. Please hit the "LIKE" button to support our work. Thanks!
Short
by MujkanovicFX
2
Tailored Brands channel break, double bottom, short squeezeTailored Brands has been in a *steep* decline since its high of 35.86 in May 2018. It fell all the way to just above 5.00 this month. Wow. However, I see signs of reversal. Firstly, we've broken out of the downward parallel channel that the stock inhabited for a year. Secondly, We've formed what looks like a double bottom pattern. Thirdly, the stock's fundamentals are starting to look better. Its 3.82 P/E is attractive, and its forward P/E of 3.07 is even better. In the last 3 months, insiders purchased a net 143,015 shares-- much more than the net 36,253 shares they purchased in the 9 months previous. TLRD beat estimates on its last earnings report, and it said encouraging things on its last conference call about reducing China exposure. Plus, there's news this weekend of renewed trade talks between the US and China. As a bonus, short interest is 35.47% of float, which makes this stock a good candidate for a short squeeze. If the year-long trend changes and the price begins to rise, it could do so very quickly.
TLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
1
Intel above trendlineIntel leape above its trendline earlier today, but then bounced hard off channel top and back below the trendline. However, it's now peeking above the trendline again, which bodes well for tomorrow. Trump's announcement over the weekend that trade talks are resuming is good for Intel not only because it offers the promise of resolving the trade war, but also because Trump immediately lifted the Huawei ban. Intel has lots of exposure to Huawei, and Broadcom recently revised its guidance downward because of the ban. With the ban lifted, we shouldn't have to worry about Intel doing the same. Unfortunately, tomorrow is a "bear" day according to the Stock Traders' Almanac-- a day when the major market indices have declined in value more than 60% of the time. So based on those historical seasonal patterns, this is a risky trade.
NASDAQ:INTCLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
TRADERSAI - A.I. Powered Model Trades for Today, MON 07/01Almost every major financial news media outlet predicted the outcome of a thin-on-details "truce" on further tariffs than any substantive progress towards an agreement or a resolution to the trade war. And, yet, the overnight futures action is exuberant and indicating significant gap up in S&P 500 Index on the open. It is highly improbable that this bidding up is coming from any institutional or smart money. When mom-and-pop individual investors seem to be leading a market move, it always ends up badly for them. Our models are not buying into the current pop in the overnight index futures and are in an indeterminate state and are staying out of the markets for the day.  Don't fret over missed potential profits - first, pay attention to hedging/minimizing the potential losses! The risk-reward profile at this level does not appear to justify jumping into these turbulent and murky waters. Let the close today guide your further assessment of the market. Good luck with your trading this week!
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
EURUSD: Short the Pullback, AgainAs the U.S. called a truce with China on the trade war, the dollar has begun to recover together with a technically oversold dollar. EURUSD since peaking at 1.1410 has retraced close to 10 cents after the 2nd wave of bearish movement has begun early this morning. Since the US-China trade war has temporary halted and while the market is still anticipating whether the Fed will cut rate this month or in September later this year, the dollar is most likely to recover further thus we will probably see EURUSD dip lower below 1.13. For intraday trade, we can wait for the price to pull back from the current bearish trend and look for sell opportunity at 1.135 which is around the bottom of the previous consolidation.
Short
by AlgoVenture
Trade-war relief - July 2019Trump and Xi Ping have come to a tariff truce at G-20 this weekend. Trump is now using Huawei (previously blacklisted, banned, etc.) as a bargaining chip, allowing TEMPORARILY, U.S. companies to continue doing business with China's Huawei. Here is a list of Top 20 U.S. based Huawei suppliers . I believe most of them will rally this month (July 2019). - Percentage number next to stock symbol is the revenue exposure to Huawei Intel (INTC) - 1% Advanced Micro Device (AMD) - 2% Broadcom (AVGO) - 6% Qualcomm (QCOM) - 5% Microsoft (MSFT) Nvidia (NVDA) CommScope (COMM) - 2% Texas Instruments (TXN) Seagate Technology (STX) - 4% Micron Technology (MU) - 2% Qorvo (QRVO) - 11% Flex (FLEX) - 5% Skyworks (SWKS) - 6% Corning (GLW) - 2% Analog Devices (ADI) - 3% NeoPhotonics (NPTN) - 47% Western Digital (WDC) Lumentum (LITE) - 11% II-VI (IIVI) - 8% Finisar (FNSR) - 8% Maxim Integrated (MXIM) - 4% Keysight Technology (KEYS) - 2% Marvell Technology (MRVL) - 1% Note: Trump can go back on the Huawei deal at any time.
NASDAQ:SOXXLong
by dorfmanmaster
1
Avnet uptrend retreat - Hammer @50smaAVT has been in a consolidation pattern since July 10th, with a bull technicals behind. Last candle today is a hammer. Showing buyer strength when price fell to $43.6. Technical data Price just below SMA(50) Price just above SMA(200) RSI @56 trending higher OBV confirming trending higher Directional move index turned positive If we can continue above the SMA(50); that would confirm the trend. ** I recommend not buying until we see Monday sentiment after Trump's meeting with Xi. Happy trading! dorfmanmaster
NASDAQ:AVTLong
by dorfmanmaster
United Health breakout above trendline resistanceUNH is looking like a great buy. Not only did it break out today above a downward trendline, but it's also near the bottom of an upward-sloping parallel channel. Fundamentals look good too, with generally positive analyst ratings and a series of recent earnings beats. Healthcare is hot right now, with its low China exposure and other sectors looking overbought. UNH next reports earnings in mid-July. Until then I expect a good medium-term bull run in UNH.
NYSE:UNHLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
1
EURUSD Might Attempt An Up Move to 1.14! A LONG TRADE SETUPENTRY AT AROUND: 1.12600 LEVEL STOP LOSS: 1.12000 TAKE PROFIT: 1.14000 RR: 1:1 On technical perspective the triangle has broken out and the price has retraced for us to go LONG here. The triangle breakout confirms that EURUSD is starting to consolidate and aim towards the weekly 50 EMA. With all the rate cut news going on and the US economy slowing, it should help this PAIR reach the 1.14000 in the near future. shall there be any updates i will update them below. cheers
Long
by FX618Analysis
BTC update and the week to comeThis an update to my previous ideas: Bitcoin: Bitcoin Dominace --------- So, either way, BTC will reach all positive targets, it's only a question of which path it takes. The short path (above green arrow trend line) or the medium path (below green arrow). Thick red line is the decision line and I'm quite confident BTC will at least reach this level ($9000-93xx). Positive talks or tweets however will likely be what sends BTC to .382 ($8136). From there - support levels become $8100 $7200 $6200 In this path, wave 3 of the larger impulse wave (blue elliot) will begin upon one of those supports with $6200 being the most likely reversal point.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by jdharward
Long term vision on GOLDOn the longer timeframes (1 month) gold broke the horizontal resistance based on the top of summer 2014, July 2016 and around February 2018. For now, it looks the month candle is still trading above the resistance line but, we have one trading week left before the candle closes. So to be safe, wait for one more week, and if price is above resistance line, it's a good opportunity to open a long trade. The more aggressive traders can start building up the positions now, offcourse withe stops below the resistance line. You want to keep the risk low, because it's not been said yet that it's a real break out. Options for fake break out, or stop loss hunt, are still open. This technical long vision also perfectly comes together with the fundamentals: " President Donald Trump said the U.S. will impose major new sanctions on Iran Monday, days after he abruptly called off a plan for airstrikes against the Islamic Republic based on the concept of proportionality after Iran shot down a U.S. Navy drone. " - source Bloomberg " Gold (XAU/USD-spot) closed around 1399.43 in the U.S. session Friday, soared almost +0.63% on safe-haven appeal amid U.S. allegation of oil tankers attack by Iran coupled with lingering suspense about U.S.-China trade war. A full-fledged trade/cold war is positive for tariff/imported inflation and also positive for the precious metal as an “inflation hedge”. Gold is also boosted by a deluge of soft U.S. economic data and hopes for two Fed rate cuts in 2019 and one in 2020 amid an intensifying Trump trade war and the probability of an U.S./global economic slowdown. " - by Asis Ghosh on iforex
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DutchFXtrader
Long July CY straddle @ 22 due to subdued volatility (IVR of 4)We are entering into a near-the-money straddle on $CY by longing the July calls and puts with a strike of $22, for a $.60 debit. The breakevens are below 21.40 and above 22.60. As a long straddle, the maximum loss occurs if the stock price S is at the strike k of $22 at maturity. Taking long positions on both of these options was very cheap because the implied volatility is incredibly subdued -- with a mere IVR of 4. The current IV30 is 11.6, compared to the historical 20 day volatility of 31.6 and rolling year volatility of 34.5. Cypress Semiconductors has agreed on a buyout offer from German chip maker Infineon Technologies for $23.85 per share. Before this deal can be completed, however, it has to be approved by regulators from both the U.S. and China. The deal is expected to close by the end of 2019 or early 2020, but heightened trade war tensions could interfere with the deal execution and final approval procedures. Cyrpess' CEO T.J. Rodgers, stated in an interview with CNBC: “Cypress makes some fairly exotic military stuff that could give CFIUS problems, and China, of course, is looking for ways to get even with us on the trade war thing.” Chinese approval of the merger is needed for the combined entity to trade there. Combined, they make the world’s number-one automotive chip maker, so losing the significant Chinese market would be catastrophic for either company. Cypress also has large exposure to China, like many others in the semiconductor space, so growing trade uncertainty is detrimental. This straddle play benefits from movement away from the current price of roughly $22 -- which seems to be a likely consequence of brewing trade tensions.
C
by LaurenTrading
USA vs China / TRADE WAR $USDCNH ... Cup & Handle pattern right there in the bigger picture. We then got a rising wedge shorter term. Why? Look at the #TradeWar and it makes perfect sense. Wait for confirmations and you got a safe setup right there ! The Trade War is going on and it´s getting harder and harder every week for both the USA and China. So guess where this pair might go? Look at the very least for a 1:1 ratio or much more. #Forex #Trading #FX #Finance #Money #Investing
Long
by PaperChazeTrading
1
Dollar: Probably Peak; Awaiting 2nd Bearish WaveThere's very little reason now that the dollar can continue to maintain bullishly and break new high any further. The market has given up the thoughts of any rate hike this year and instead, expecting about 2 rate cut this year. The trade war against China has proven to bring devastating effect onto the US economy and now the Fed can no longer remain hawkish as it used to. The dollar is also seen peaked at a 618 level, consistently rejected since late April and then the price broke a new low. The dollar has completed the first wave of a bearish trend but the 2nd one has yet to even begin. All eyes are now on the FOMC statement this week. The market isn't expecting a rate cut just yet but the tone of the Fed will be extremely crucial to setting the tone of the dollar performance in the near future.
TVC:DXYShort
by AlgoVenture
Gold: Long-Term OverviewThe mood in the market has changed drastically if we were to compare now with the beginning of 2019. The gold has shifted into a period of consolidation as the US-China trade war took a breather. When the trade-deal failed to pull through, it eventually led to escalating global trade risk and the US economic growth is undoubtedly affected. The Fed hasn't been as hawkish as it were in 2018 and instead, it has turned to a dovish stance, signalling for the cutting of interest rate to sustain its economic growth which is dampened by a prolonged trade war against China. During the period where the Fed kept raising rate in 2018, the gold saw itself losing value by a whopping 200 dollar. Yet, the recovery started halfway through the rate hike the very moment the market has a dampening view of any further rate hike in 2019. And just recently, the gold long position has increased drastically as the Fed has signalled the possibility of a rate cut while the dollar is also at a 2-year high, a 618 level in the weekly chart. The dollar has peaked, the interest rate has peaked, the tension of the US-China trade war is at an all-time high, what would be the outcome of the gold price in the next few months? If this is the direction of the current market outlook, the gold will undoubtedly rally through the last half of 2019 and into 2020. In the meantime, we have also seen that the gold has peaked at the top of a 6-year range starting but also a sign of break above of a 3-year symmetrical triangle caused by the 5th and ongoing Elliott wave. As seen on the chart, should the market continue to move on the track of a falling dollar, the gold price will reach 1400 in the next 2 months, 1481 by the 4th quarter and 1550 in the 1st quarter of 2020. Note: The market is extremely volatile to market changes and any long-term view should be watched over and monitored closely for any major economic events that could lead to major changes in the market outlook and market trend.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by AlgoVenture
YELLOW METAL Aiming For 1310 After Trendline Break. LONG TRADE!Have a look at the link below for full trade analysis behind this trade set up INSTANT ENTRY: AT AROUND 1287.00 LEVEL TAKE PROFIT: 1310.00 STOP LOSS: 1264.00 POSITION: BUY/LONG RR: 1:1 The trendline was broken and now the price will likely aim at 1310.00 level where an established high is present. should the price breach that level we could opt to take this pair further LONG to next HIGHER HIGH. But for now lets just aim towards 1310 level. shall there be any updates i will provide in them below. cheers
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FX618Analysis
USDJPY LONGYen pairs really took a battering last month. However, this month should see a fightback from the yen bears. Having said this, USDJPY seems to be coming back down to the bottom of it's downtrend channel and a reversal is on the cards. However, I would be cautious as this pair has come down very strongly forming a very bearish daily/weekly/monthly candle on the close of Friday. I hope to see USDJPY dip further on Monday/Tuesday with signs of bulls coming in to the London/New York sessions on either day to give me confidence before going long. Trade safe and good luck!
Long
by UnknownUnicorn216436
1
Will the USD/JPY test 105.00 this week?Going hand in hand with the sharp drop in US Treasury yields, which now price in a more than 95% chance of the US central bank FED cutting interest rates at least once by December 2019, the USDJPY followed and dropped below the crucial support region around 108.70. The drop lower continued into the start of the week with the ISM Manufacturing following the US Services sector's collapse (and Canada and China's plunge), printing at a disappointing 52.1 (53.0 expected) and being its weakest since October 2016 (despite a rise in new export orders and employment). Three of five ISM components declined, including production, inventories and supplier deliveries, and stagflation looms as prices paid rose. In addition, the headline PMI fell to its lowest level since September 2009 as output growth eased (with output expectations crashing to the joint-lowest since records began) and new orders fell for the first time since August 2009. What's especially noteworthy: the lowest ISM index reading during Trump's presidency was already on shakier ground even before the latest escalation of tariffs between the US and China, which definitely have the potential to pinch margins. While the USD/JPY didn't aggressively accelerate on the downside (which indicates that most of the disappointing print was already priced in), the overall mode stays bearish. If today's ISM Non-Manufacturing data set disappoints (in our opinion any reading below 55) too, recession fears loom again and USDJPY drops below 107.50, a stint towards 105.00, the flash crash lows from January, could be seen already in the second half of the week. But even if we get to see a solid print, the current device seems to be 'Sell the bounce', especially if a bounce towards 109.00/20 occurs. The mode stays bearish on a daily time-frame as long as we trade below 110.70. Ready to start trading the live markets? Then open a free account with Admiral Markets - 8,000+ instruments to choose from, some of the market's tightest typical spreads, and the world's #1 multi-asset trading platform. admiralmarkets.com/start-trading/ Disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 84% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Short
by Admiral_Markets
1
Chinese white paper, India in cross-hairs & Bank of Australia China releases white paper, India in the crosshairs, Bank of Australia decision China has maintained a paused after the US showed trade aggression, apparently, hoping to reach an agreement. Apparently, hopes were not justified. As a result, the so-called “White Paper” was born. The document, which sets out the position of China in order to negotiations with the United States on trade and economic issues. The main message is the following: China does not want a trade war with the United States, but will not avoid it if it is needed. Also, China quite clearly set forth its terms for a deal with the United States: the USA cancelling all duties on goods imported from China. In addition, China is gradually starting to counterattack. For instance, the investigation began against FedEx Corp. the other day. Huawei accused FedEx of sending two parcels with important commercial documents to the United States. According to the results of the investigations, FedEx Corp. may fall into the list of unreliable companies. Meanwhile, Trump is planning to open another front of the trade war - the Indian one. From June 5, the States may deprive India of the status of a country with a developing economy, which will exclude the possibility of duty-free export to the United States of more than 2,000 Indian goods. In general, everything is bad. Morgan Stanley analysts have warned about this that further growth in trade tensions may lead to negative US economic growth as early as Q3 2019. Therefore, our recommendations are: buying safe-haven assets (gold and Japanese yen) and selling the dollar. From the events of today, it is worth noting the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting, at which the Central Bank lowered the rate by 0.25%. This is definitely a bearish signal for the Australian dollar. Given the intensification of the trade war, while AUDUSD is below 0.70, we recommend looking for points for selling of AUDUSD on the intraday basis and the medium-term directions. Our positions for today: we are continuing to look for points for buying of the euro and the pound against the US dollar, sales of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying of gold and the Japanese yen. In addition, we will buy the Canadian dollar against the US dollar.
Short
by Trade24Fx
USDJPY - Key Fibonacci Support LevelWe have seen USDJPY drop recently due to an increase in trade tensions between the US and China which has put downward pressure on the dollar and increased demand for the Yen which is a safe haven currency. Additionally, the expected rate cut in the US due to fears over the economy has put added pressure on the currency pair as the benchmark 10-year Treasury's yield is at it's lowest since September 2017 near 2%. USDJPY now sits at the Fibonnaci support level at 107.894 so we will start building a long term long position and we will be closely monitoring the currency pair as Powell Discusses Policy Strategy at the Chicago Fed Conference later today.
Long
by KQMarkets
2