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Tradewar

Eur-Usd, May 2019 = August 2015?Does anyone else see a simile with August 2015? In that month Usd-Cnh jumped from 6.20 to 6.60, S&P 500 -15%, copper -9%, and Eur-Usd has reached a gain of over 700 pips. “China may stop purchasing US agricultural products and energy, reduce Boeing orders and restrict US service trade with China. Many Chinese scholars are discussing the possibility of dumping US Treasuries and how to do it specifically,” Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of the Global Times, said in a tweet. For the first time, I read about boycotting US government bonds. A taboo has been broken, which so far few have taken into consideration given that China is the largest holder of government bonds. We see that something is changing in this commonplace. We must recalibrate all the Chinese reaction function! The markets are likely to be more frightened by this reference to government bonds than to 60bn of duties.
by TradingwDavid
USDKRW - Depreciation of the Korean Won Accelerates. After breaking the 2yr highs a couple of days ago, now it seems we will get close to 1210, a level reached on January 2017. I expect the USDKRW to go higher, especially since the slowdown in local economy and not good news from the US/China trade talks. I do not recommend buying the KRW at his levels. Any bad news from US/China trade talks will make the KRW go lower, and in case of good news I do not see traders going back to KRW.
by Joel_Ochoa
2
Trade War Alleviation Gives Much Evidence for UpsideVolatility is decreasing as the trend upwards slows down. I think there is large potential to the upside as the US-China trade war comes to a detente. However, many resistance levels remain in the way before that can happen. On the other hand, the index quite easily blew past previous levels of resistance with no problems. Want to see more talk towards trade war resolution before I'll be bullish. More words on the matter here: anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
S
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
Stocks Likely to Close the GapWith the trade war escalating, stocks are likely to continue their slide. Investors world wide were hoping for clarification on the trade war, but what they received was an ambiguous tweet that was later deleted. China appears ready to escalate, which should add to the tensions and risk off tone. Stocks are very likely to close the gap down to lower levels, through the vacuum zone. The Kovach Momentum Indicators have waned a bit, but momentum is likely to pick up closer to open. After testing 2837, it is likely that they will slice through this level if fear persists.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by quantguy
Bonds Likely to Close the GapThe whole world was glued to twitter waiting for an update on the trade war from President Trump. However what they received was rather anticlimactic: a tweet about saying we don't need to rush a trade deal, which was later deleted. It is likely the markets will interpret this as a risk-off event, since they were really expecting more clarification. Currently, the Kovach Momentum Indicators suggest momentum has stagnated. Bonds are currently ranging, and are likely to drift upward, testing the upper bound of the range.
CBOT:ZB1!Long
by quantguy
Trade war results, dollar’s future and a lot of statisticsThe data on the US trade balance was published yesterday. In the light of the unfolding trade wars, this publication can be regarded as an indicator of victory/failure. So, the negative trade balance between the USA and China in March decreased to a record low in the last 5 years. Formally, this can be written as a victory for the United States. But on the other hand, in the first quarter, imports to the United States from China fell by 13.6%, while exports fell by 17.6%. Well, probably, this cannot be considered as a victory, maybe only a pyrrhic victory. In addition, the US trade deficit with Mexico reached a record $ 9.5 billion in March, and with Europe it grew by more than half to $ 14.2 billion (Trump could send greetings to the weak peso and the euro, as well as a strong dollar). Markets are increasingly worried that Trump is not bluffing when he accuses China of disrupting negotiations and threatens a new active phase of the trade war. In addition, attacks on a strong dollar from Trump’s side might intensify. Strengthening the dollar, as we see, eliminates the effects of current victories in trade wars. So besides the new victories, Trump also needs to ensure a lower dollar. Goldman Sachs currency strategists obviously “feel” that, because they observe the prerequisites for a weaker dollar in the medium term. Also, it should be noted that Friday will be intensive with macroeconomic statistics such as a block of data from the UK, which among other things include statistics on GDP, industrial production and the trade balance. Given the volume and importance of data, an explosion of volatility in pound pairs is almost inevitable. Since the pound movement direction directly depends on the output data, therefore today we recommend today to try trading on the news. So, a couple of minutes before the data release, we place buy-stop and sell-stop orders at 20-30 points from the current price at that time. GBPUSD will be best for work with. News and the subsequent surge in volatility will lead to the directional movement, the formation will be possible to earn on. Using this trading tactic, do not try to predict the price movement, but simply join the general market movement. In addition to statistics from the UK we are waiting for a block of data on the labor market in Canada, as well as consumer inflation in the United States. So in the afternoon in dollar pairs, and especially USDCAD will not be boring. Again, this is a reason for active trading and earnings. Our positions did not change much at the end of the week. We are continuing to look for points for buying the Australian dollar and the euro against the dollar, selling of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as gold and the Japanese yen buying.
by Trade24Fx
NZDCAD Awaits Triangle Breakout Momentum To Start Trending!The main chart shows the monthly TF of NZDCAD pair from which it is visible that the pair is confined in a triangle. The red horizontal lines represents the concrete support and resistance levels drawn from the monthly charts. Should the triangle break (the monthly candle closing outside the triangle) we could potentially see the price target those red horizontal levels! My view on this pair is neutral, which means the break to either side is a possibility. The trade war conflict i feel will likely decide the fate of this pair. This just represents the analysis of mine on this pair. shall the trade criteria meet i will post the details in a new post
by FX618Analysis
Bonds Due for a RetracementBonds have been gradually overbought owing to a slew of risk off factors including global economic fears, and the trade war. At this point, we may be due for a corrective phase by the end of the week. There is a representative from China flying in, so this may provide a much needed respite from the doom and gloom. The Kovach Momentum Indicators suggest that momentum is gradually turning negative, which may support our position. Shorting near current levels would provide high risk reward because there is a vacuum zone to the down side, and new relative highs would provide a good stop loss. We know we're wrong if these are breached.
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by quantguy
BLACK GOLD Could Slump To 55.00 If the CHANNEL Breaks!The main chart shows the daily timeframe perspective of the black gold (WTI) in which it can be seen that the price has been confined in a channel respected on multiple occasions! The red horizontal lines represent the nearby support and resistance levels drawn from the monthly charts. Technically should the channel break (the daily candle closing convincingly below the daily 50 EMA and the channel) we could see the price target the next support in sight at 55.00 level. However have a look at the attached image above, where the price action is based on the weekly TF. Often, the 50 EMA act as a dynamic support and resistance. Here we see the weekly 50 EMA which could potentially prevent the price hitting the 55.00 level. So for this trade scenario to be valid we not only need to see the channel and the daily 50 EMA break but also the weekly candle closing below the weekly 50 EMA! Should all this criteria meet we will wait for the price to retrace slightly before making a SHORT entry to target 55.00 level Fundamental factors for the black gold are mixed in my perspective. Many countries are trying their best to limit their output but on the flip side with the trade war fears, the global slowdown would likely affect the crude's demands. So in a nutshell until a trade deal is reached we could see the WTI slip to 55.00 before it starts to rebound again higher in the future. This just represents my analysis of this pair, shall the trade criteria meet in the future i will post the details in a new post.
TVC:USOILShort
by FX618Analysis
CADJPY Might Drop To 79.000 Should US-SINO Trade War Persists!The chart shows the weekly TF where the price is confined in a well respected triangle! The nearby red horizontal lines are the concrete support and resistance levels taken from the Monthly charts. Currently should the price break the triangle to the downside, we can expect the price to fall towards 79.000 level, On the flip side should the price break to the upside, the potential target here would be 87.000 and 91.500. However, the current fundamental picture suggest a break to the downside is more favorable as the trade war fears are back in action and risk OFF markets are dominating. In the current state of the market we can expect the safehaven FX pairs to gain traction such as the JPY! Moreover, OIL which is closely related to the CAD pair looses steam in risk OFF markets as the global slowdown fear persists!. So taking all this into consideration, should the triangle break to the downside we can probably expect it to HIT 79.000 level This just represents my analysis on this pair and should the trade criteria meet i will post the detail in a new post. cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
DO NOT BUY USDJPY Until the Wedge breaks! Initial Target 114.000This pair has broken all the vital levels technically, furthermore fundamentally its easily on the course of hitting the next resistance that lies at 114.00 level after which it might likely further target 118.00 level! However even though USDJPY seems it might HIT 114.00 level by next week or the week ahead, technically we are confined in a very concrete wedge that has been respected on a numerous occasions! Have a look at the main chart for weekly TF. The upper trendline of the wedge is clearly acting as potential resistance which needs to be broken (the weekly candle needs to close outside this trendline) for us to have technical confirmation to go LONG! Markets are currently on a RISK ON appetite mood and it will likely intensify in the coming weeks which would drag the yellow metal down and other safe haven pairs such as eurjpy and usdjpy. Its an excellent opportunity to take this trade LONG whilst the markets are in RISK ON mood. Have a look at the image above taken from the daily TF of this pair. H & S Patterns are reversal patterns however in some cases they act as consolidation patterns! Here we see an inverse H & S present on the DAILY TF, a break of the neckline would likely propel the price to break the LONG TERM trendline on weekly charts. After this is done we can wait for the price to retrace slightly before entering a LONG position. THIS JUST REPRESENTS MY ANALYSIS ON THIS PAIR AND SHALL THE CRITERIA MEET I WILL POST THE TRADE DETAILS IN A NEW POST. Please if you like my analysis give it a LIKE and FOLLOW me if you would like to receive more analysis. cheers
Long
by FX618Analysis
TAIEX and China Stocks Both Benefit From US-China Trade DealTAIEX enjoys a positive correlation coefficient with the Shanghai Composite which has strengthened consistently over the past few months. Then if we believe that a trade deal with the US is coming then the TAIEX will surely enjoy some gains as well even especially since TAIEX greatly outperforms Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component. However, TAIEX RSI is well into the overbought territory and let's also not forget TAIEX suffered its worst single day loss (6 percent) since the 2008 financial crisis back in January of 2018. More volatility to come?
TWSE:IX0001
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
High Probability Intraday Setup for DJI MINI FUTURESThe following are trades setup ideas in 15 mins chart for DJI MINI FUTURES There are 2 distinctive dotted lines labeled as (provided by www.decisivealpha.com) 1. AI's Intraday Resistance 2. AI's Intraday Support These 2 Support and Resistance signal lines are generated by machine learning AI robots as a high probability trade setup for long or short provided by www.decisivealpha.com Long Setup If price action closed above the Pivot Point Line AND demonstrate bullish sentiment by being able to close above the Pivot Point line with subsequent bearish candle retests, the idea is to long on weakness and take profit at Pivot Point R1/R2 price region. Depending on trader's positioning sizing, partial profit could be taken at Pivot Point R1. The remaining position could be utilized to ride the intraday bull sentiment should it continues to approach Pivot Point R2 profit target. OR Short Setup If price action demonstrates weakness by closing below the AI's Intraday support line AND eventually closed below the Pivot Point S1 line, the idea is to short on strength and take profit at Pivot Point S2 price region. The term "Long on weakness" and "Short on strength" is an important entry technique for traders to achieve alpha. Otherelse than having a winning strategy edge, the entry methodology could significantly improve profit efficiency by achieving better RRR (risk to reward ratio). This for example, could be accomplished by "short on strength" as a trader want to "Sell Higher" and "Buy Low". Instead of relying on 100% discretionary (human) trading, the robots will provide trade execution plan and it is entirely up to the human trader's decision to follow. This is highly recommended to trade during Europe and US market hours for liquidity and volume for this product. Free AI's trades setup: www.decisivealpha.com Facebook: www.facebook.com
CBOT_MINI:YMM2019
by WolfeDayRocker
END OF DOWN TREND? POSSIBLE 600 PIP TRADEGood day risk takers, The Market has been in an intermediate down trend since early April 2018, for the first two months of the downtrend it had a strong momentum. Market then started to run out of steam but slowly pushing down until entering an 11 month channel with occasional fake outs to trap sellers and buyers. In November 2018 Market tested support at 1.1216 which is a very important level which held in May-June 2017 and November 2016. Price failed to break through and continued in its channel until testing the support again in 09 March 2019 and now which is current market price (02 April 2019). We see divergence on the weekly time frame for the 14 period RSI which indicates a reversal is eminent. The question we have to answer now is that is this the end of a downtrend(intermediate), there is an 11 year old trend line which the market respects and could possibly be the long term target if the market were to reverse which is also a resistance for the primary downtrend. In terms of fundamentals the US-China trade talks are still the main issue of concern, there is also Brexit for the Euro and Quantitative Easing, all these would be instrumental in driving the pair up to the 1.1800 which is possible were the trend line would extend to at the time.
Long
by ZAYN1001
Sell AUDUSD Because Chinese Growth Slowdown Isnt OverThere are plenty of technical reasons to avoid AUDUSD. Nearly all exponential moving averages, which more heavily weigh the more recent days than the ones further away, point towards a continuation in the downward trend. The bull bear power index also indicates that AUDUSD long is an overcrowded trade. Indeed, data from DailyFX backs up this claim with its data from its parent company IG which can be found here: www.dailyfx.com But the thematic background is truly what will mainly driving this paid in conjunction with the likely poor data releases this weak. But the weakness in AUDUSD doesn't stem from inherent weakness in the Australian economy as much as it does weakness in the Chinese economy. Perhaps one could read this as splitting hairs since the Aussie economy is so dependent upon the Chinese. Either way, China's growth slowdown which is likely to continue amid speculation of prolonged trade war and tariffs will continue to put downward pressure on this pair. Never forget, you can trade the trend until its no longer a trend. Right now, we're still knee deep in bear signals. If you like this analysis you can check out more of my work here www.anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
Short
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
Post-Fed, the Only Winner is TrumpThe Fed surprised many yesterday by assuming a more-dovish-than-expected stance, effectively removing the possibility of a rate hike in 2019, but allowing for some rate increases in 2020. The Fed suggested that there is no longer a need to move rates to a restrictive level after downgrading their forecasts for US growth, unemployment and inflation. The Fed’s decision was justified given the dynamic nature of monetary policy. At the moment, the economy is trying to adjust itself to the shock caused by the trade tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which we had commented about being the major worry of the US economy last October. As long as this adjustment period is going on, monetary policy cannot hurdle growth and thus the pause was more than justified, based on the prevailing market conditions. The Trump administration, through the imposition of tariffs, indirectly arm-twisted the Fed to pause its rate hike plan, while still respective the Fed’s independence by not directly intervening in the interest setting process. The expected short-run negative effect on the economy from the tariffs pushed the Central Bank away from its normalization policy, given that the Fed is bound to react to changes in the macroeconomic environment. Maintaining interest rate stability is something that the Trump administration was fully backing, eager to maintain low borrowing costs so as to fund the growing US government debt. Given that the excess spending has to be somehow detained, President Trump tweeted, soon after the Fed announcement, that his administration is considering maintaining the China tariffs for a “substantial period”. Tariffs appear to be working the way the Trump administration more or less imagined: custom duties nearly doubled in 2018Q4 compared to 2017Q4, increasing by roughly $33 billion. Tariffs, despite the negative effect they can have on the local economy given the upwards price pressure they place on the market, were well-placed on China, if the aim was to generate income. Given that the US accounts for about 19.2% of total Chinese exports, it could be enough to grant them with monopsony power. Widely accepted by economic textbooks, monopsony power allows a country to gain enough from the exporters’ absorbance of the tariff into their prices in order not to lose much market share. Thus, the pledge that “foreigners will pay” appears not to have been so misplaced after all. Furthermore, tariffs would also be good for US companies manufacturing the same goods as the Chinese ones targeted. Even though the extra revenue is important, it is still not enough to cover the extra $44 billion in interest that the US government had to pay during 2018. However, given that interest rates are expected to remain stable during the year, as per the Fed communication, there is no question that the only change in US interest payments is expected to come from additions to the already huge US government debt, standing at $21.5 trillion dollars, based on the latest available data. All of the above could easily work as a re-election tool for Donald Trump: the economy is growing, he effectively stopped the Fed from raising interest rates as a result of the tariffs imposed by his administration, something which would also push the economy higher or at least lower the impact from the trade tariffs and grant him more bargaining power in the China talks, he cut taxes, government spending increased, and he will likely claim that he made foreigners pay for a majority of all these things, through tariffs. Like him or not, it seems like Trump got what he wanted, even though the trade war policy cannot be sustained in the long run. Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Long
by HotForex
Former Resistance as Support? Now that we are above resistance, are we now about to conceptualization previous resistance as support? It's hard to say given the crazy amount of volatility around Brexit which will be coming if Parliament fails to pass legislation, or if US-China trade war is still on which is trending back in that direction, or if the Fed realizes that they want to actually cut rates towards the end of 2019 given the speed in which they transformed from hawks to doves. Long story short-->price levels to me are still uncomfortably high. I don't think the sky will fall tomorrow, but I'm keeping a close eye on the aforementioned global themes which move markets the most. If you find this analysis helpful, then please look at the rest of my work at www.anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
SP:SPX
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
CHFJPY Confined in A Weekly wedge. Awaits breakout Momentum!The blue lines represents the support and resistance levels drawn from the monthly charts. If the price breakouts of the triangle in either direction the support or resistance levels next to them needs to be broken decisively in order for the technical aspects to be in our favour of the trade. shall there be any updates i will post them in a new thread. this just represents my outlook and analysis on this pair. if the technical aspects of this trade meets, i will post the entry and exit details in a new thread. cheers
by FX618Analysis
AUDJPY Looking To HIT 81.000 Level If the Range Breaks!AUDJPY is currently range trading that is visible by looking at the 4hr and daily timeframes. Looking at the main chart it can be seen that the price is confined in between the blue lines (range). Shall a breakout of the range occur to the upside, the price will look to target the 81.000 area where the weekly EMA 50 is present. Have a look at the snapshot of the weekly charts below: From the chart above, the price is confined in a descending channel and is currently en-route to testing the dynamic EMA 50. Furthermore, the 78.000 psychological level is a concrete support drawn from the monthly charts which has been rejected on too many occasions notably most recently on the monthly candle and the flash crash that happened last month. A LONG position is favored only if the range breaks to the upside, in other words the daily candle and NOT the 4hr Candle must close outside of the range on the daily charts . Followed by a slight retracement before we could execute a LONG entry. In the future if the price decisively closes above the weekly 50 EMA we could take this pair LONG towards the descending trendline of the main weekly channel. RISK ON appetite in the market would make AUD more valuable in comparison to safehaven yen which tends be sold off more together with GOLD AND CHF, therefore if a trade deal is made which is a likely scenario we can expect the AUD to rally against the YEN. This just represents my analysis for this pair, shall the opportunity arise i will post the entry criteria in a new thread. stay tuned and cheers
Long
by FX618Analysis