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Tradewar

ORBEX: With US-China Done, All Eyes on Brexit Now!The US and China signed a partial deal yesterday, putting a temporary stop to global uncertainty! Without that being the end of the trade war, at least we can now wait and see if China respects the signed terms over the next few months... Are emerging markets affected by the fresh rhetoric since China is supported, or should we just focus on monetary policy, particularly in South Africa today? Market participants will now look at the EU and UK for a resolution on the Brexit front. Will the House of Lords prevent a January exit? And how will the EC react about an 11-month transition if they won't? Watch our analyses on euro-pound and the SA rand! Timestamp EURGBP 8H 02:15 USDZAR 8H 04:45 Trade safe Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
6
MU strong stock trend in stronger On a yearly performance, MU did better than 77% of other electronic components stocks. Now it is currently trading near its 52 weeks high so it is performing in line with the broader markets. On a mid-term based daily chart, we could see a strong wedge uptrend pattern with momentum, and a few minor pullbacks occurred due to some broader geopolitical impacts such as the trade war and global 5G development uncertainty. But the stock is kept showing higher lows signaling the investors' passion for it. MU is about to consolidate at the 56.8 support level which is lying underneath the price as the chart indicated above. Since the ATR volatility risk has not packed in too much yet at the current high, DMI overall trend indicator is still heading up and bull-side trend strength is still controlling the directional momentum, I would go long with it. My target is simply at the prior all-time high resistant area which is indicated by the red band above the stock price roughly at 60, any pullbacks that break below its bollinger bands middle band could be seen as a stop-loss trigger. Besides, on the order flow side, there were over 2.9 million valued long calls detected from the options chain today with a strike at 60, expire in March.
NASDAQ:MULong
by Khabilan
SOXX looks strong ahead of Phase 1 trade dealSOXX got a little out of hand last year, surging to new highs despite a minor earnings recession in the sector. However, the dividend yield has continued to improve over that period, and the outlook for the sector has fundamentally improved in 2020. According to FactSet, "At the industry level, the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment industry has the highest number of companies issuing positive EPS guidance," with eight companies having issued guidance above Street expectations. That means that despite the fairly high multiple at which the sector trades, positive sentiment is only increasing early in the year. It's worth buying a small stake in this ahead of the scheduled signing of a Phase 1 trade deal Wednesday, and a larger stake if and when the price dips to any significant degree.
NASDAQ:SOXXLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
USD bearish against MYRIn a monthly time frame, it is clear that the pattern forming descending triangle and forming double top inside the major pattern. Although the major trend still uptrend, but the price move near the support line with the RSI 40%. After breakout double top pattern, the price might be pullback to the breakout point and wait for bearish price action to short, thus, set the 1st TP @ 3.8556, 2nd TP @ 3.7364, 3rd TP @ 3.5567. In terms of fundamental, USD bearish due to few crisis such as US-IRAN war and US-China Trade War. DISCLAIMER: THIS IS OPINION BASED ON MY PERSPECTIVE. FOLLOW AT YOUR OWN RISK.
Short
by traderfiz
GBPUSD: POUND THE BUCKDespite what seems to be an everlasting downfall, the GBPUSD pair is currently in an uphill battle, literally. Climbing up in its current channel, the price point has recently tested what I consider a 'break-out' but failed. Not losing too much of its momentum, the price point fell from 1.35052 to 1.30844 where it rebounded with nice support. A 'break-out' was then again restested on December 31st but also failed. Despite failure, the price point found support at 1.36012 (higher than the previous support level). Also sitting on the bottom of its uptrend channel, it looks like the Pound is posed for a successful 'break-out' in the coming days. With worldwide tensions rising and pressures mounting against the USD, would this be of much surprise? P.S. The 12H chart also shows support under the current price level. Both 50 & 200 EMAs are sitting close by. Seemingly, awaiting the right time to push the price point up.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn5320750
4
ORBEX: FX Majors Remain Bid int he New Year! Will It Last?The FX majors stretched into 2020 firm, spelling a strong term against a weaker #dollar! Will this continue being the case though when uncertainty around #tradewar and #Brexit remain elevated? Take a peek at our #elliottwave analysis for some technical insight at least. Timestamps EURUSD 1H 01:45 USDJPY 1H 03:30 GBPUSD 1H 05:50 Trade safe Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
Cleveland Cliffs is an inexpensive trade deal recovery playCleveland Cliffs is a mining company with a lot of exposure to China tariffs. The company's earnings took a huge hit this year due to the downturn in steel as a result of the trade war, and the price plummeted. The company should get a nice surge on any positive trade talk news. It briefly made a bullish trend line break Friday when the market thought a deal had been made to repeal tariffs, but it's back down today after Trump said he loves the tariffs and he hasn't agreed to repeal them. (Sometimes I think he's jerking us around on purpose.) Even without a trade deal, this stock is a good bargain at the current price. It's got a sustainable 3% dividend and is financially healthy enough to weather the downturn. It did well on its last earnings report and has unusually bullish options activity. Backward P/E is now about 2.6, whereas before the trade war this traded at more like 10-15. Forward P/E is higher at 6.5, but still well below the 5-year average. Buy this for the dividend and hold it for the recovery whenever our political leaders get their act together on trade.
NYSE:CLFLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
3
VIPS run should continue after pullback from overboughtChinese retailer VIPS has been on a massive run lately, and is now pulling back from overbought on the weekly. The stock has formed two upward trend lines, one steeper than the other. We may break the steepest trend line and bounce from the secondary one. VIPS started 2019 at a low valuation, and over the course of the year has seen a roughly 100% increase in its earnings forecast. The share price has risen accordingly, but the stock remains significantly undervalued according to S&P Global Intelligence, with a valuation rating of 86/100. VIPS has posted huge earnings beats on its last five earnings reports. The company next reports earnings on February 18, 2020. Judging from the current earnings forecast, I judge that the share price is likely to hit $30 per share by 2021. The stock has a 9.5/10 analyst summary score and fairly bullish options volume even after the huge run it's been on.
NYSE:VIPSLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
KEY TRADING THEMES FOR 2020General fundamental context: Expect global mini economic expansion in 2020. Yes, 2019 year, to the surprise of many, managed to avoid recession. Do you remember this extremely weird rally BOTH bonds and stocks? Investors were basically divided into two camps - doomsayers and smart and witty stock traders who almost blindly bet on Fed capitulation. Because of that I have moderately bearish outlook on funding currencies (Yen, CHF, USD, Euro) and Bullish on “Commodity dollars” (AUD, CAD) and HY (RUB, PESO, ZAR, NZD). Medium term outlook for XAUUSD is also bearish because because zero-yield assets negatively correlate with positive economic growth. MAJOR FUNDAMENTAL CATALYSTS Implementation of trade agreement (aka "Phase one" Deal) What to watch: - China trade data; - Brazil and Argentina Soybean export data; - US agro exports, producer price index etc; - European trade data, PPI (because to increase imports from US, China has to cut imports from other trade partners. It is a zero sum game, you know). No favourable shifts in Trade - Tariffs are back on the table - second tough test for the US stock market. "Phase Two" Deal Rhetorics. Remember that many contentious issues remained unresolved after Phase one Deal. Next stage is Phase Two deal discussion which Trump touted would start right after the signing "Phase one" Deal. What to watch: - Trump twitter; US 2020 Presidential Elections What to watch: - Trump leads, so focus on his new campaign promises. It is important because Trump looks a man of his word and delivered on his main campaign pledges (Mexico Wall, tax reform, revision of World Trade Order). - Watch closely US polls. Markets will be extremely sensitive to this data and with the approach of the date of elections Dollar may start to resemble Pound reacting to Brexit news (really). Federal Reserve Policy. The policymakers signalled no more interest rate cuts till the end of 2020. Any tweaks in policy or change in communications can move stocks and Dollar either way. I want to wish you a happy new year. All the best to you, your family and friends. 2019 will definitely be missed, but let’s make it even bigger in 2020!
INDEX:DXYShort
by PipVision
The 2020 OUTLOOK: Broad Market Analysis and Guidance (Part 4/4)The 2020 Outlook: Series on Equities , part (4/4); Dec 28th, 2019 Very simple and straight forward chart. Obviously, very unlikely that it'll completely follow the drawn structure, but here are the few things that I am expecting in 2020. 1. It will be a slow year. Mostly because of all of the election noise, smart money will be waiting on the outcome of the elections. The importance of the elections, is that it's one of the most polarized election in recent history. It will basically be a coin-toss whether, we will have a sell-off post elections or not. Either-way, speculators will kick in 2020, and volatility should rise . Momentum is still bullish. 2. Global macro trends have bounced and are somewhat recovery. I am waiting to see whether the recovery will continue in Q1 and Q2 before I completely dismiss any bearish ideas . Corporate profits have recovered(fred.stlouisfed.org), but they still do not support the current valuation(P/E well above historical average). 3. As of now, "Not QE" balance sheet expansion program by the FED, is planned to be cancelled in January, but options are open for further action. Post QT, liquidity is still low, and the yield curve is flat. Expecting further accomadative monetary policy, perhaps even an actual QE-4 announcement by May. 4. The trade/cold war is HERE TO STAY. It's not going away! It will be prolonged, until most US companies move their supply chains out of China. This will dramatically decrease global growth in the short run . In fact, I think upon announcement of Phase I, it'll be a good sell news. This is it for 2019, happy New year! It's been a year full of events, developments and progress. Hoping for an even better 2020. Wishing everyone better health, better relationships and of course, larger trading P/L's! This is it on my series on the 2020 Outlook. Make sure to check the previous parts, charts and discussions are welcome! Thank you for the continuous support and feedback! Investing Strategies: Momentum vs Value Investing Liquidity Significance: For those of you interested in investing in GOLD: -Step_ahead_ofthemarket- ________________________________________________________________________________________ >>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>> However, if you'd like to support me and get informed in the greatest of details, every thumbs up and follow is greatly appreciated! Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references or use of my content- contact me through any of my social media channels.
TVC:SPXShort
by step_ahead_ofthemarket
8
NZD/USD Outrageously OverBought NZD's newfound strength is artificial for the most part. Let's analyze: New Zealand's GDP report showed to be better than expected, but let's put that into perspective. In Q2, their GDP was revised down and you want to convince me that this 0.7% quarter growth is significant. The yearly GDP growth is still on a convincing downtrend. Many Banks still have the RBNZ down as giving a rate cut at the start of the year. Inflation is not where they want it to be. Yes, the trade war is making progress which is a natural provider of currency strength to the NZD. However, this is not enough substance to justify the strength of the current bull run. The ridiculousness is showcased in the RSI(14) which is showing 2-year highs. Expecting a sharp decline at the start of the trading week. Disclaimer: I am not your financial advisor.
Short
by TogamiTrader
2
ORBEX: Risk Up on LOWER TARIFFS As China Announces Import Cuts!China announced they will be lowering tariffs on a number of items come January 1st, making markets looking more festive ahead of Christmas! Aussie and Kiwi took the headlines with a positive tone, however, Cable kept entering lower territories on the back on post-election no-deal fears! Will the Santa rally continue? Have a look at our Elliott Wave analysis for further clues! Timestamp AUDUSD 2H 01:15 NZDUSD 2H 04:10 GBPUSD 2H 06:20
by Orbex
ORBEX: Investors Brush-Off USMCA Headlines! Softening Dollar?JGB yields brushed off USMCA headlines yesterday and took a positive turn above the zero mark! JGB's haven't been positive since March 2019! Is this hinting that investors turn optimistic on global economies? Or just a shot-lived surge own to auction? Supported by impeachment uncertainty and poor US data yen rose against the greenback yesterday, however, the pound continued sliding on the back of no-deal risks. Will the US and UK GDP figures change the short-term outlook? Canadian retails are also due and they could be causing some short-term moves. Will they help loonie strengthen further? Timestamps USDJPY 1H 01:30 GBPUSD 1H 04:00 USDCAD 1H 05:40 Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
2
Rejected Bears and Low VolatilityJust as expected, Australian investors are crying foul on the low-interest rate policy adopted by my least favorite reserve bank leader, Lowe Phillips. He is utilizing the same policy that lead the ECB into a never-ending bear market. When there is uncertainty in the global economy and you are not one of the "majors" then don't throw oil on the fire by creating an atmosphere that makes global & local investors more fearful of your future. Australia has a great economy, one just needs to look at their BOP (Balance of Payment). Despite all the fear, the exchange rate has become "sticky" and currently rejecting a further fall. We just need progress in the trade deal to start a bull market and with commodities almost back in season it might be impressive. Disclaimer: I am not your financial advisor.
Long
by TogamiTrader
1
GBPAUD TRADING OPINION AND PLANPotential space for lower in my opinion and as the chart we can see price breaking lower the ascending trendline and support 1.93076 should indicate bearish in power. Boris Johnson and his friends are amending the Brexit bill to NOT allow further extensions. This means that, once the government has set a deadline, the U.K. must stick to it with or without a trade deal with the EU. On the other hand the so-called Phase One trade deal between Washington and Beijing has been “absolutely completed,” a top White House adviser said on Monday, adding that U.S. exports to China will double under the agreement which provided some positive vibe in comdolls sentiment which I think will help Aussie on this trade at the moment.
Short
by Anatta0
USDCAD ELLIOT WAVE LINED UP WITH CLASSICAL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USDCAD rose in overlapping five-wave "leading diagonal" from the major low at 1.30422. Leading diagonal always indicates the direction of the major trend, and in USDCAD's case, it is bullish. The subsequent decline is the corrective pattern, which unfolded as a double zigzag correction in wave B. The corrective wave retraced around 61.8 - 78.6% of wave A, and also bottomed at a demand zone + ascending trendline. The confluence of classical technical analysis and Elliot Wave further confirms that the price should resume the advance on or from near the current market price. The potential target for wave C is the resistance zone + Descending trendline. What's your thought about USDCAD? Best, Veejahbee.
Long
by Veejahbee
3
Spanish Markets Fundamentals and Technicals Point HigherWith the supposed China "phase 1" deal being agreed upon...even though when no actual facts are really being presented and now the Americans are claiming it will be signed mid January...the trade has still been risk on. Markets globally liked the news as some uncertainties dissipate and we are set for a Santa Clause rally. I like what I see in the Spanish markets, the Ibex. I believe it generally is lagging behind some of the Asian markets, the American and European markets. Remember folks, it is not about forward guidance. There is nowhere to go for yield anymore except stocks in this environment where central banks keep interest rates artificially suppressed. As a fund manager, you cannot be in cash for a long period of time. Your clients pay you for yield. Bonds yield very low...way below the pension fun targets of 8% and they historically are heavy fixed income...not anymore. Real estate? Property taxes do bring yield down and most funds do not want to become REITs. Some say cryptos but that would only happen once it gets regulated. No fund manager would put clients money in cryptos knowing that exchanges do not have the money to pay you back if Bitcoin goes higher because legally, they do not need to since they are NOT regulated. Stocks are the only place to go, and I think these markets that are lagging will be attracting money chasing yield. The Ibex has been in a downtrend with lower highs and lower lows. We then began to base long term and even created a double bottom pattern. You can see that this range was composed of trends and a head and shoulders pattern we traded in the past. Recently, we created a larger head and shoulders pattern which I find very interesting. With todays daily break, which is strong, the trade is triggered. We are looking at the 10,000 for first tp.
FOREXCOM:ESP35Long
by Uncharted-FX
S&P to 3900, potential on phase1 trade dealAfter an array of failed emergency monetary tactics such as a $500B a year corporate tax break, 3 rounds of Quantitative Easing and 3 rate cuts, finally after the trade deal was announced, we peaked our head well up above the bottom of channel / sub-channel we had been stuck in for over a year now. This was additional evidence that the drag on stock markets despite all the corporate welfare was largely due to the direct impact of the trade war (and related unpredictable policy) on global economies. Likely it will take a little time to step its way up to top of channel and likely will only happen in the absence of renewed trade tensions. Other than renewed trade tensions, there doesn't seem much in the way to prevent us from seeing the S&P at 3800-3900 in 2020. If we do reach top of this 10 year channel for the S&P bull market, it will be the first time we have seen it in over 4 years now and the actual first evidence of a strong corporate economy under this administration. At this point the only way to outperform the markets from the previous 8 years is if this administrations economic policies are able to see a break upwards out of top of this 10 year channel without further emergency monetary policy boosting it. After mostly riding the bottom of trend for 4 years now, this is only the second time we have seen hope for breaking out of the sluggish bottom of channel, we just need to maintain the path of restoring global trade and I think we will see top of channel. There is a lot of potential here. This is not trade advice, DYOR, Author is holding S&P ETF options long. s
SP:SPXLong
by EncryptShawn
1
ORBEX:Indices Following US-Sino Deal & Trump's Impeachment Vote!In today’s market insights I will talk about the cautious market reaction to the US-China trade deal announcement and what to look for in this week’s volatile session! Yes, I am still expecting markets to move considerably despite the festive season approaching. I analyze the leading NASDAQ and the US index and explain why I expect equities to continue higher! Timestamps NAS100 2H 01:40 DXY 2H 05:00 Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
TVC:DXY
by Orbex
Triangle Pattern Could Send CADCHF LowerCADCHF and EURCAD are negatively correlated; that is, if EURCAD is trading higher, then most of the time CADCHF will be trading lower. I've been tracking a triangle pattern on EURCAD, but when a colleague sent me his view on CADCHF, I could easily spot an almost completed triangle pattern as well. This further confirms that the triangle on EURCAD and the related pattern could send CADCHF lower in wave C. See related ideas links for EURCAD analysis.
Short
by Veejahbee
What Last Friday Sell-Off Could Mean for EURUSDThe EURUSD saw a massive sell-off last Friday, which led to the formation of a bearish Pin Bar at a critical supply zone and weekly descending trendline. Although EURUSD seems to have resumed the advance from 1.087 major low on the chart, the correction might not be completed yet. The price action after the advance showed a three-wave down in wave (a) and three-wave up in wave (b). This pattern could result in a complex corrective structure in wave 2. If this count is correct, the pin bar should send the pair further lower in a five-wave pattern in wave (c) to complete an expanded Flat Elliot Wave pattern. The blue box and 78.6% Fib is the estimated area for wave (c) to bottomed. What's your view on EURUSD? Thanks for reading! Veejahbee.
Short
by Veejahbee