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NG: UNG: BOIL: Natural Gas Rebounded on Feb 2021 RollNatural Gas prices rebounded after dropping earlier in the week from $2.5 to $2.25 on warm weather. Prices rebounded on tight balances, oversold technical conditions, and roll into February 2021 contract. Support is expected to hold, as LNG flows are above 11 Bcf/d and balances are tight, with last draw at -152 Bcf. Technical Analysis: 4 Hr chart shows oversold condition. Support is seen at $2.25. However, double bottom is still possible, before going higher around January 10. Potential price target for the next leg up is $2.75 - $2.8. Upside potential for NG and BOIL may be limited due to roll into lower March 2021 contract on January 22 -27. Fundamental Analysis: Bullish picture with tight balances and potential for a deficit is possible going into 2021. Lower 48 state production lost -4 Bcf/d vs. 2020, while gas exports increased +4 Bcf/d, resulting in net increase in demand of 8 Bcf/d. Lower 48 production is expected to remain at 91 Bcf/d, while LNG flows and Mexico exports will total 16 Bcf/d. HFIR energy believes, that forward curve is underpriced at avg. of $2.58/MMBtu. Should weather turn colder after January 11, 2021, as projected by NatGasWeather, we may see NG prices bounce back to $2.7-$2.8 levels. Cash prices are likely to go much higher during winter. However, NG and BOIL, will start rolling into lower March contract around January 22 -27, which may bring futures prices back to their current support level at $2.3-$2.5 at that time. Overall picture for NG in 2021 is bullish, given lower production and higher LNG demand and exports remain in place. Traders are bullish EQT and BOIL (day trade). Short sellers will still have their opportunities on selling 4 Hr tops. KOLD is an inverse daily ETF, that does well during March - April contract timeframe.
NYMEX:NG2!Long
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CL: USO: Crude Oil Awaiting OPEC Decision to Boost ProductionCrude Oil chart is consolidating awaiting OPEC's decision to boost production by 500,000 B/d in February, with a total of 2 Billion B/d increase by April of 2021. Prices may dip to $45 level. Economic recovery from COVID-19 is in the cards with expectations of higher demand coming in the spring and into H2 of 2021. Currently, Crude Oil prices are holding grounds, pressured by the OPEC production increases news, but supported by expectations of growing demand. Based on the OPEC agenda and Russia's position seeking price stability, 2021 oil prices are expected to trade within the range of $45-$55. Lower prices, down to $45 -42 level may be seen in the near term, while demand has not recovered yet, but production increases are already agreed upon. Technical analysis: 4 Hr RSI chart shows mid-range consolidation, which may get resolved by testing the bottom before going back up. Multi-frame MACD chart analyses show consolidation at the top of the range on a Daily chart, with mid-range consolidation on a 4 Hr chart. The most significant Fibonacci level from the most recent run up appears to be 50% at $45.50, which is also 200 EMA. This area is expected to get tested first, should OPEC approve its production increases on January 4th. Lower levels of $42 and $39 are also possible targets, depending on the EIA inventory reports in the coming weeks. We still do not have full demand recovery, while production may start increasing ahead of time.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
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NG: UNG: boil: Natural Gas Looking for a Bottom - Mid DecemberNatural Gas futures dropped disproportionately to fundamentals on lower national demand in the first half of December and slightly higher recent production. However, NatGasWeather forecasts for the storage draw covering next three weeks are not as bearish as the drop in gas prices. LNG flows are consistently bullish exceeding 10.5 bcf/d. The fundamentals are still strong. It seems that bullish traders are waiting for colder weather patterns to settle in before driving prices higher. If we get the forecasted warming next week, the prices may go lower. Expected trough at around December 9-12. Technicals: The 4 Hr chart is oversold. Yet, this condition may persist for another week. The double bottom is more likely before going higher. Per NatGasWeather Report: EIA Weekly Nat Gas Storage Report Outlook: EIA Weekly Report Week 1 – December 10 -70 to -80 Bcf Slightly Larger vs Normal Draw (Nov 27-Dec 3) Week 2 – December 17 -80 to -90 Bcf Slightly Smaller vs Normal Draw (Dec 4-10) Week 3 – December 23 -85 to -100 Bcf Slightly Smaller vs Normal Draw (Dec 11-17) NatGasWeather.com Forecast 5-Year Average -61 Bcf -105 Bcf -127 Bcf
NYMEX:NG2!
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NG: UNG: BOIL: Natural Gas Oversold, Roll into January ContractNatural gas futures NG moved higher as it started rolling into January contract on Nov 20. Technical conditions are oversold on 4 hr chart. We have an unfilled gap at $3.1 level, a possible target for an upside move. Weather forecasts into early December are less bearish than last week, but still alternate shots of cold air with periods of warming. Next week EIA report is expected to be on a bullish side, a draw of about 20 Bcf, as demand exceeded supply for the period ending Nov 18. Expecting a gradual move to higher prices, unless weather forecasts change showing more cold temperatures coming.
NYMEX:NGF2021
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NG: UNG: BOIL: Natural Gas Looking for Support NG: Natural gas NG contract may find its support at $2.6 level before moving higher into January contract. Prices dropped on warmer weather forecast Nov 18 -Dec 2. From technical perspective, NG is approaching oversold condition on 4 Hr chart. Lower prices are still possible due to bearish EIA report on Nov 19, as built is expected on the backdrop of low demand through November 20. However, roll into January contract Nov 22 - 25 may provide support for this transition into colder temperatures starting first week of December. Should NG start rolling into January as early as November 19, the dip may not be a slow as expected due to warm weather.
NYMEX:NG1!
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NG: UNG: BOIL: Natural Gas testing support before moving higherFundamentals remain bullish. NG Natural gas futures are getting ready for December roll. November contract made a rally up to $3.1 on Wednesday and now is testing support at $2.97 - $2.95 level. A three dollar price level needs some digestion. To break above $3.2 December price will require support from colder weather forecasts and higher LNGs. Rise in seasonal demand is confirmed by weather forecasts for the second half of November and into December - January. Last week in October forecast has now turned colder predicting high national demand for the next week (NatGasWeather). Supply/demand balance is tightening. LNGs are at 8-8.5 bcf/d with expectations to increase to 10 bcf/d within the next a couple of weeks. Technicals are pointing toward a pullback before the roll begins and prices move higher. Currently, support for November contract is seen at $2.97-$2.95 level. Even if lower prices are seen on Friday, the dip may represent a buying opportunity before the roll.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
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VIX: UVXY: Higher Volatility in SeptemberVIX and UVXY have shown higher activity in September. Although, historically, we are still at very low levels of volatility, that may change approaching the election. VIX and UVXY are derivative measures of volatility that are moving, in general, in opposite direction to SPX500. However, during times of uncertainty, like upcoming election, VIX and UVXY may remain elevated while the markets are still moving higher. Choppy action in the market price movement is anticipated. Technical levels: Based on Fibonacci extensions of the most recent move down, from $33.50 to $18.50, next potential upside targets for UVXY are $24.69 (38.2%), $26.43 (50%), and $28.17 (61.8%). These levels are largely dependent on the actual price movement of the SPX500 index, and can be used as a guideline only. One hour chart shows that we are approaching 38.2% Fib level with RSI and MACD chart close to near-term overbought readings, with some negative divergence between the price and volume. This pattern may be indicative of a pull back or consolidation in VIX and a higher move up on SPX500 chart. However, a four hour chart presented here, shows RSI and volume levels creeping higher then levels seen in July and August with more room to go toward considerably higher levels observed in June, when UVXY was trading at $45-$50. As it is difficult to place a price target on a derivative index, a trend is up, based on 4 hr MACD and RSI charts.
CBOE:UVXY
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MU: Micron Keeps Moving Up - Possible TargetsMicron chart keeps rallying towards its earnings day on 09/29/2020 (confirmed). Trading at $47.80, the price is close to its second target of $48.13 (50% Fib level). Potential higher targets are at $51.46 (78.6%) and $54 (100%) levels. Scenario analysis: ADP employment numbers to be reported on Sept 3rd may help with further short-term price advancement, if positive. However, September has been a volatile month historically. A broader pull back in major indices is possible between next week and end of this month. If such correction occurs, MU chart may pull back as well, possibly down to $44 level, to resume its rally toward price levels above $50 with general market move higher in October - November time frame. If MU chart makes its way to $51 level before the earnings, that could be a good opportunity to book the profits and reassess possible price movements at that time.
NASDAQ:MU
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MU: SOXL: Micron is Moving HigherMU: Micron has started its rally toward Q3 - next earnings season. The chart has reached $45.06, its 23.6% Fib retracement level, which may serve as near-term resistance, or consolidation zone before its next leg up. Momentum has turned positive as MACD has crossed to the upside on all time frames. There are two unfilled gaps below, at $43.76 and $42.68 levels. Next possible targets for the move higher are $48.13 (50%), $51.46 (78.6%), and $54 (100%). Pull backs on the way up are possible and are likely to represent a buying opportunity.
NASDAQ:MU
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UNG: NG Natural Gas Declining Through Summer on Low DemandNG Natural Gas August futures contract has been declining on cancelled LNG shipments and low national demand. US supply keeps steady outpacing demand. US demand started improving on June 21st due to reopening of NY-NJ-PA economies. However, Texas extended its lockdowns, counteracting positive effect of the East Coast. Seasonal heat is high. But with 40-50 August LNG shipments cancelled, the market may remain in oversupplied state for months to come. August 24th may be a potential turning point for natural gas. Prices are likely to continue decline under current oversupplied conditions. Analysts see target support at $1.25, 1995 low, and then at $1.00, all-time low. Resistance is seen at $1.52, and $1.60 levels. Technicals: Daily chart is pointing to a neat-term bottom with potential upward move within declining channel. NG rolled into August contract, which was trading higher than July contract, which could explain a Friday pop. There is a possibility for a near-term price improvement to $1.65- $1.75 level (tentative), between July 1st and July 17th, with continuing decline after mid July.
NYMEX:NGN2020
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NG: UGAZ: Natural Gas Consolidating Lower. Demand Improving.NG Natural Gas July futures contract continues declining on recent lower demand. Fundamentals are still bearish: low LNG exports, 4 Bcd vs 9 Bcd in the winter, and cooler weather over North East. The temperature is expected go higher on June 25-28, per NatGasWeather. With economy reopening on June 20-21, EIA weekly report may turn bullish in the 1st week of July. The chart is oversold; buyers are coming in at $1.60 level. Last week build was 93 bcf. A build below 90 bcf would be a bullish sign. A short-covering rally may happen soon in anticipation of improving demand. Lower prices are still possible, if LNG exports do not improve, or weather does not prove to be hot enough. Yet, reopening of the economy should boost demand significantly moving into July.
NYMEX:NG1!
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NG: Natural Gas Further ConsolidationNatural Gas NG July futures bounced last week on warmer weather and production cuts. On Friday we saw a pullback, as weather forecasts lost some CDDs (cooling degree days). UNG fund started August contract roll on June 12 -17. Technicals: Daily and 4 Hr chart are pointing toward lower prices; 1 Hr chart is forming a bottom. We may have a short-term bounce from lower levels, but overall direction is pointing toward lower prices, or consolidation. Fundamentals: demand/supply balance remains bearish in the near-term; prolonged heat is required to produce a rally in prices, although the number of rigs has declined by 7. Second half of June was expected to be hotter per last week's forecast, but on Friday, weather pattern turned cooler, with lower demand for cooling. Until the next heat wave emerges, we may be facing lower prices. Crude oil prices are declining due to high inventories build and worries about slow economic recovery, adding to the bearish picture. On the positive note, economy is reopening in higher consumption states, NY, NJ, and PA on June 20th. Weekly EIA report capturing this period may show higher consumption two weeks from now. Until then, a strong prolonged heat wave is required to change current bearish price pattern.
NYMEX:NG1!
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CL: Crude Oil Forming a Reversal Top?Crude Oil reversed from its highs of last week near $40.7, almost closing the gap. The chart rallied up to its 50% retracement level ($40.7) of the recent major decline and is now pointing downward. Possible next retracement levels are: 78.6% ($35.39), 61.8% ($31.14), and 50% level at $28.7. MACD is forming a top; RSI is pointing downward. Fundamentals are bearish: Supply cuts have been confirmed by OPEC+ last week, but only through July, which is a short-term measure. Inventories showed a build of 5.7 Mb for the week of June 5 (EIA report). Lack of demand is a major concern to investors, although production is slowing down. Supply is still ahead of demand.
NYMEX:CLN2020
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UGAZ: NG Demand Rising. Positive Divergence?Natural gas demand is rising due to electric power sector demand increase. Total U.S. consumption of natural gas rose by 3.9% compared with the previous report week. Natural gas consumed for power generation climbed by 10.1% week over week. In the residential and commercial sectors, consumption declined by 5.9%. Industrial sector consumption decreased by 0.3% week over week. Natural gas exports to Mexico increased 4.8%. (Data from EIA report, last week). Technicals are showing a positive divergence between momentum and price; MACD is showing higher bottoms (coiling) while NG prices continue to consolidate. A potential for a break to the upside? Waiting for Thursday EIA report. This week residential demand is continuing to rise because of hot weather. Industrial sector is also picking up due to reopening. Hurricane reduced production by 1 bcf, although produced delays with LNG exports. Fundamentals are turning bullish, although we are still oversupplied. May need another 2 weeks of growing demand to overcome high storage build.
NYMEX:NGN2020
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UGAZ: NG Natural Gas Getting Ready For A Move Up?Chart patterns are suggesting a reversal to the upside, possibly targeting $18-$24 levels for UGAZ, as NG prices are expected to go higher into the summer heat and economy reopening by 3rd week of June in NY, NJ, PA. We may have another a couple of days of consolidation with lower prices due to bearish EIA report on Thursday. Expecting over 100 bcf in storage. However, rising demand is on the horizon. NG price targets are: $1.8; $1.93, $2.048. UGAZ, being ETN, may not reach its recent highs in the 30s. However, it is expected to get into mid 20s, with resistance at around $26 price level.
U
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NG: Natural Gas retracing into Fib levels, looking for supportNatural Gas NG July futures contract gapped up to $1.93, but quickly retraced to $1.915 level, which is 50% Fib level of its recent run. Prices are going lower into Thursday EIA report, as SP Global Platt reported decline in demand. Fib levels that may serve as support: $1.195 - 0.5; $1.900 - 0.382; $1.881 - 0.236; $1.85 - 0. Currently stabilizing at $1.90. Both MACD and RSI charts are pointing toward lower prices. Investors seem to be sensitive to low demand. We have a gap underneath at $1.76 level and major support at $1.70. Deep retracement into those levels is unlikely at this time.
NYMEX:NGN2020Short
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NG: Natural Gas futures gapped up switching to July contractNG: Natural Gas futures NG switched to July contract on May 26 at 18 p.m. gapping up to $1.93. Based on 4 Hr chart, resistance of $2.0 has not been reached yet indicating potential to go higher. MACD crossed pointing toward higher prices as well. RSI is at 60, which has been the level that capped the most recent rally at $2.0 (May 18 -22). Chande momentum is forming a "megaphone" pattern indicating some potential to go higher in the near-term. UGAZ: Traded flat at $17.30 during NG gap up to $1.93. If $1.93 NG price is sustained overnight, expecting a gap up on the open for UGAZ, possibly up to $19-20 level.
NYMEX:NGN2020
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$UGAZ: Natural Gas NG needs to break through $1.8 to go higherNatural Gas NG has moved higher in Tuesday trading session. Short-term resistance is seen at $1.8, support at $1.76. UGAZ trading between $15.70 and $17.70, with $16.65 being important level to stay above. NG needs to break through $1.8 to challenge its next resistance level at $2.0. With fundamentals turning bullish, it is a possible target. $UGAZ: next upside targets remain $20 and $23 levels, even if a pull back. Technicals: currently overbought on 30 min, 1 Hr time frames. 4 Hr chart is also near recent resistance levels, but may consolidate there in the near-term.
UShort
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$SPY: SPX500 Continues Moving Higher SPX500 continues its rally in pre-market trading reaching $3009 level. The index is overbought on 4 Hr chart, with Daily chart showing little movement. A pullback may be needed to keep it going higher. We may expect a double top formation on 4 Hr chart before RSI correction into 30 territory. RSI momentum is pointing toward higher prices (near-term). Chande Momentum, however, is indicating potential for near-term correction within its recent trading range.
AMEX:SPYShort
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$UGAZ: Natural Gas NG Potential for Upside Within ConsolidationNatural Gas June futures contract continues consolidating within a narrow range: $1.68 - $1.76. A potential for a move higher is seen in the near-term. UGAZ: Based on 1 Hr chart pattern and Chande Momentum indicator, an upside move can be expected within May 26 - 27 timeframe; $20 is seen as first upside target, $22-23 level as resistance, while $15.30 is seen as support. A break below could lead to $14 handle. Multiple consecutive green bars observed between May 22 and May 26 on UGAZ chart, are indicative of potential bottoming out. On Balance Volume (OBV) kept moving lower for both UGAZ and NG throughout May, approaching a potential bottom, with RSI momentum turning higher on 4 Hr chart. This could be a technical sign of reversal. However, NG trading range is narrow with main support at $1.60 and main resistance at $2.0. This trading range may continue in the near-term. June contract settles on May 27th, with last position on May 28th. Higher priced July contract continues after that through June 26th (its settlement). Demand is picking up, although gradually, and still under oversupplied conditions. Based on fundamentals, the overall direction of NG futures is expected to go higher from here, with consolidation to continue into early June. NG forward curve as well as seasonal demand are both pointing toward higher prices. A choppy pattern may continue until we get a forecast for a heat wave to kick off high cooling demand season.
UShort
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