AUD/USD BEARS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
AUD/USD uptrend evident from the last 1W green candle makes short trades more risky, but the current set-up targeting 0.616 area still presents a good opportunity for us to sell the pair because the resistance line is nearby and the BB upper band is close which indicates the overbought state of the AUD/USD pair.
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NZD/USD SENDS CLEAR BEARISH SIGNALS|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
NZD/USD pair is in the uptrend because previous week’s candle is green, while the price is clearly rising on the 4H timeframe. And after the retest of the resistance line above I believe we will see a move down towards the target below at 0.560 because the pair overbought due to its proximity to the upper BB band and a bearish correction is likely.
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GBP/USD BEARS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
GBP/USD pair is trading in a local downtrend which know by looking at the previous 1W candle which is red. On the 4H timeframe the pair is going up. The pair is overbought because the price is close to the upper band of the BB indicator. So we are looking to sell the pair with the upper BB line acting as resistance. The next target is 1.212 area.
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NQ1! BULLS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|LONG
Hello, Friends!
NQ1! is making a bearish pullback on the 9H TF and is nearing the support line below while we are generally bullish biased on the pair due to our previous 1W candle analysis, thus making a trend-following long a good option for us with the target being the 21,655.25 level.
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GBP/NOK LONG: My Technical AnalysisDear Readers, Today I want to show you my long investment on GBP/NOK.
As a passionate analyst of the Forex market, today I want to share with you a strategy that I am following on the British Pound/Norwegian Krone (GBP/NOK).
The current setup is particularly interesting, as it presents consistent bullish signals on multiple timeframes, supported by technical indicators that I have developed and customized for in-depth analysis.
My Technical Analysis
To build this long strategy, I used the custom Wave Trend (developed by me) and the Alligator indicator. Both tools gave me clear signals of a bullish reversal.
Here is a summary of the signals identified:
1-Hour Chart (1H): On the hourly timeframe, we have just seen a break of the previous resistance, a strong signal that indicates a possible continuation to the upside.
4-Hour Chart (4H): On the 4-hour timeframe, the price is in an oversold condition and is bouncing off the long-term average of the Alligator. This suggests a recovery from a phase of excessive market weakness.
Daily Chart (1D): The long-term context remains bullish. This prolonged phase of positive trend offers additional safety for a long position.
Key Levels of the Strategy
To make this trade safe and effective, I have set key stop loss and take profit values, as shown in the chart.
Stop Loss: Placed at 13.85689, below the recent lows. This level provides protection in the event of a sharp reversal.
Take Profit: Set at 14.47413, an ambitious but realistic target, which aims to capitalize on the bullish trend.
Indicators Confirmation
The Wave Trend, positioned at the bottom of the chart, has signaled a bullish divergence and the passage from the oversold zone. The Alligator, on the other hand, shows a possible opening of the moving averages (indicative of a nascent trend), with the price that has detached from the long-term average, suggesting a potential bounce upwards.
Conclusions
This setup is a great example of how to combine technical signals and market context to build a winning trading strategy. The consistency between the signals on the 1H, 4H and 1D timeframes gives me further confidence in my long investment on GBP/NOK.
I will keep you updated on the progress of this operation and on the next trading opportunities. As always, remember that good risk management is essential to achieve success in the financial markets.
See you soon,
Andrea Russo.
HODLing versus Day Trading. aka Hoping versus ControlFrom my experience I've learned that I prefer control of my profit rather than holding and hoping.
With there being over 14,000 crypto projects to choose from, there is no guarantee that each market will go back up.
The marker caps are already rather expensive, so to double your money on Bitcoin for example it has to go to $200k, whereas with prop firm day trading I can double my position's size in within an hour.
I have created a trading strategy to support my desire of control. If you too like control over your profit, then stay close to my work.
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 1.21.2024🔮
📅 Tue Jan 21
🗓️ Day 2
📍 WEF Annual Meetings
📅 Wed Jan 22
🗓️ Day 3
📍 WEF Annual Meetings
📅 Thu Jan 23
🗓️ Day 4
📍 WEF Annual Meetings
⏰ 8:30am
📊 Unemployment Claims: 220K (prev: 217K)
⏰ 11:00am
🛢️ Crude Oil Inventories: -2.0M
📅 Fri Jan 24
🗓️ Day 5
📍 WEF Annual Meetings
⏰ 9:45am
📊 Flash Manufacturing PMI: 49.4
📊 Flash Services PMI: 56.8
⏰ 10:00am
📊 Existing Home Sales: 4.19M (prev: 4.15M)
📊 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment: 73.2
💡 Market Insights:
📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ:
On a gap up, we will get pinned down at HPZ back into the EEZ.
📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ:
A lot of resistance overhead. Markets should cool down after the gaps from last week. Small rally into fade downwards.
📉 GAP BELOW HCZ:
We will likely get a small bounce and hold.
#trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investing
Gold's Reaction to Trump: Navigating the Supply Area DynamicsGold prices experienced a moderate increase on Monday, buoyed by thin liquidity in the markets as Donald Trump officially assumed office as the 47th President of the United States. The precious metal, often regarded as a safe haven, found support amidst the uncertainty surrounding the new administration's economic policies.
During Trump's inauguration speech, the U.S. dollar (Greenback) weakened, reacting negatively to his decision to set aside aggressive tariff policies that some analysts believe could otherwise lead to inflationary pressures. This shift in tone suggests a more measured approach to trade, which alleviated fears of an impending trade war—an environment generally conducive to gold's appeal. Investors began to reassess how such policy changes could impact inflation and, in turn, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance going forward.
As of the latest update, XAU/USD is trading at $2,708. Market sentiment indicates a potential short flash bearish impulse on the supply area. Traders are closely watching the $2,680 to $2,650 zone, anticipating a possible retest, which may provide an opportune moment for profit-taking, especially if market dynamics shift in favor of a stronger dollar.
From a technical perspective, this supply area will be critical for traders focusing on short-term moves. A rejection of prices at these levels combined with weaker fundamentals could signal a bearish trend ahead, offering potential short plays for those looking to capitalize on market fluctuations. Conversely, if gold holds above these levels and there is a sudden shift in risk sentiment or a renewed spike in inflation fears, we could see gold prices testing resistance levels above the current trading price.
In conclusion, with Trump taking office and the markets adjusting to his policies, gold is likely to remain volatile in the near term. Investors should keep a close watch on economic indicators and market sentiment, as these factors will heavily influence gold prices in the coming days. For now, navigating the recent price action within the supply area presents intriguing possibilities for both short and long positions, depending on how the market reacts to unfolding events.
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AUD_USD WILL FALL|SHORT|
✅AUD_USD will be retesting a resistance level of 0.6300 soon
From where I am expecting a bearish reaction
With the price going down but we need
To wait for a reversal pattern to form
Before entering the trade, so that we
Get a higher success probability of the trade
SHORT🔥
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Finding Balance: Managing GREED in TradingIs greed helping or hurting your trading? While closing trades too quickly for small profits isn't ideal, neither is holding positions too long hoping for bigger gains. Let's explore how to find the right balance between healthy ambition and destructive greed.
📍 Understanding Healthy vs. Unhealthy Greed
Some greed can be good - it drives us to achieve goals and maintain optimism. But when it becomes an obsession, problems start. Professional traders manage their emotions well, while beginners often struggle as early successes fuel excitement and a dangerous focus on profits at any cost.
📍 Warning Signs of Unhealthy Trading Behavior
When trading turns unhealthy, you might notice these patterns:
🔹 Ignoring proven rules because you trust your "gut feelings" more than sound strategy. Your confidence leads you to dismiss common sense in pursuit of profits.
🔹 Expecting every trade to be profitable . While optimism helps, believing you'll win just because you want money is dangerous thinking.
🔹 Living with constant stress. You can't step away from price charts, scrutinizing every move and experiencing emotional highs and lows with each trade.
🔹 Chasing profits while skipping analysis. You focus only on results without learning from each trade, leading to more frequent losses over time.
📍 Dangerous Trading Habits to Avoid
⚫️ Using maximum leverage, thinking bigger trades mean bigger profits. This often leads to heavy losses when markets move sharply against you.
⚫️ Moving stop-losses and take-profit levels mid-trade. Whether hoping to avoid losses or catch more gains, this usually results in worse outcomes and added stress.
⚫️ Following the Martingale strategy - doubling position sizes after losses or wins. This approach typically leads to losing your account quickly.
📍 Practical Steps to Control Greed
1. Start with real money, but small amounts. Demo accounts can create false confidence since there's no real risk.
2. Set clear, achievable goals. For day trading (H1-H4 timeframes), aim for about 20 pips per trade. Scalpers should be satisfied with just a few pips.
3. Create and follow a detailed trading plan. Example: Take half profits at your target, use trailing stops to protect remaining gains.
4. Practice smart risk management. Decide your maximum risk per trade and stick to it - don't adjust stops once set.
5. Keep learning and practicing. With better market understanding, you'll make fewer emotional decisions. A realistic monthly return might be 2% - treat anything above as a bonus.
6. Connect with other traders. Share experiences to manage stress and gain perspective on what's normal in professional trading.
7. Stay skeptical and analytical. When excitement runs high, slow down. Check multiple information sources and grow your trading size gradually while continuing to develop your skills.
📍 Conclusion
Successful trading is about steady progress, not quick riches. Growth should happen naturally alongside your developing trading skills, without sacrificing other aspects of your life.
Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment 📣
TRUMPUSDT | Bearish Trend**Trump Meme Coin | Bearish Trend**
The Trump meme coin, a 72-hour-old market sensation, managed to become the third-largest meme coin by market cap, reaching $9 billion.
This token was launched following a tweet from Trump in the past 72 hours and quickly gained traction on the Solana network due to a massive buying wave. As a result, it was swiftly listed on major crypto exchanges and attracted a significant portion of the market’s liquidity.
However, after the initial 72-hour hype, the emotional buying spree has faded, and the coin is now stuck around the $40 price range. It previously faced a crucial resistance zone between $75 and $78, but every attempt to break this level was met with heavy whale sell-offs, causing the price to plummet. Now, the coin is struggling to maintain its position around $40, and if it loses the $37–$35 support level, the price could drop further to around $27.
One major reason why this type of token is unreliable is its centralized nature—80% of the total supply is controlled by a single wallet.
My analysis suggests further price decline, with little to no chance of a recovery, at least until the $33–$27 range. The overall trend remains bearish, and the coin has lost all its support levels, with the strongest support now being around $34–$35. However, it remains to be seen whether new liquidity will enter the market or if existing holders will start withdrawing their funds.
**This is purely a personal analysis and does not constitute any buy or sell signal.**
ETHFI.X in downward trend: 10-day moving averageETHFI.X in downward trend: 10-day moving average crossed below 50-day moving average on December 26, 2024
The 10-day moving average for ETHFI.X crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on December 26, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 3 of 3 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Price Prediction Chart
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 6 of 9 cases where ETHFI.X's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on January 07, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ETHFI.X as a result. In 9 of 13 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ETHFI.X turned negative on January 08, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 8 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 3 of the 8 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 38%.
ETHFI.X moved below its 50-day moving average on January 07, 2025 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ETHFI.X declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
ETHFI.X broke above its upper Bollinger Band on January 03, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for ETHFI.X entered a downward trend on December 27, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Qifu Technology (QFIN) AnalysisCompany Overview:
Qifu Technology NASDAQ:QFIN is a prominent digital financial services provider in China, offering a broad range of loan products and financial services through its growing platform. The company has built a robust consumer base, connecting millions of users with over 160 financial institutions, ensuring strong diversification and market leadership.
Key Growth Drivers
Platform Growth:
254.3 Million Consumers (As of Sept 30, 2024): Qifu's impressive growth, with an 11.6% year-over-year increase in consumer connections, underscores the expanding adoption of its services. This large and growing user base reflects strong demand for digital financial solutions in China.
Diversified Loan Products: Qifu’s partnerships with 162 financial institutions provide access to a wide variety of loan products, helping to attract a broad customer base and drive increased revenue through a diverse range of offerings.
Management Confidence:
$450 Million Share Repurchase Plan (2025): The announcement of a significant share repurchase program indicates strong confidence from management in the company's future prospects and suggests that Qifu's stock may be undervalued at current levels. This initiative is likely to boost shareholder value and enhance investor sentiment.
Strategic Growth Focus: The share buyback also demonstrates a commitment to shareholder returns and signals management's belief in the company's long-term growth potential.
Market Leadership and Financial Strength:
Positioning as a Market Leader: Qifu's leadership in the digital financial services sector is reinforced by its strong partnerships and growing consumer base, giving it a competitive edge in a rapidly expanding market.
Revenue Growth: Qifu’s ability to generate revenue through its loan products and financial services will continue to expand as the platform connects more consumers and diversifies its offerings.
Investment Thesis:
Qifu Technology is well-positioned to capitalize on China’s growing digital financial services market, leveraging its vast consumer base, partnerships with financial institutions, and strategic buyback program. These factors, coupled with management’s confidence in the stock’s value, make Qifu an attractive investment opportunity.
Bullish Case:
Target Price Range: $67.00–$68.00
Entry Range: $32.00–$33.00
Upside Potential: The combination of strong consumer growth, solid partnerships, and management's strategic initiatives positions Qifu for significant upside potential in the coming quarters.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) – Key Technical UpdateCurrent Price Action:
Bitcoin is testing a critical breakout point from a rectangle continuation pattern. If the breakout occurs, the next target range is $115,000–$120,000.
The bullish trend remains intact, supported by the formation of a higher low on January 13, and the strong support zone between $90,000–$92,000.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support:
$90,000–$92,000: This support zone has proven crucial for maintaining bullish momentum. As long as Bitcoin stays above this level, the market remains bullish.
Resistance:
$115,000–$120,000: This is the immediate target range if the breakout from the rectangle pattern confirms. A successful move into this zone would signal continued bullish strength.
Market Implications:
A successful breakout would likely push Bitcoin toward new all-time highs, further confirming the strength of the bullish trend.
Support at $90,000–$92,000 needs to hold for continued upside. A drop below this zone would challenge the bullish structure and necessitate a reevaluation of the trend.
Outlook:
Bullish Scenario: A breakout above the upper boundary of the rectangle pattern would trigger a rally toward $115,000–$120,000, with new all-time highs likely.
Bearish Scenario: A failure to hold $90,000–$92,000 could lead to a deeper pullback, challenging key levels and potentially signaling a trend reversal.
Conclusion:
Bitcoin is at a critical point. A confirmed breakout from the rectangle continuation pattern would open the door to significant upside, with a potential move toward $115,000–$120,000. As long as $90,000–$92,000 holds as support, the bullish outlook remains strong.
Weekly GEX Insights: 01/13 SPX dropTotal Correction? What Can an Options Trader Do in This Situation? How Far Might We Fall This Week? We’ll tackle these questions in this week’s options newsletter!
It looks like the new president hasn’t even been sworn in yet, but the market is already reacting with fear to every statement he makes. Last week’s economic data didn’t help ease those concerns either.
SPX Weekly Analysis
Friday’s red candle set a bearish tone heading into this week. Everyone is predicting and pricing in a potential market apocalypse, and I keep getting the same question: “Greg, how far can we fall?”
My answer remains the same: we can fall indefinitely—nobody can know for certain ahead of time.
What we can do, however, is analyze our charts and use the our weekly GEX profile to identify the key levels, so we can better understand the market’s dynamics.
Examining expirations through Friday, every NETGEX profile is negative , so we can expect volatile movements this week. We’re currently trading below the HVL level, which means that market makers are likely to move in tandem with retail traders. This typically results in bigger swings.
We already saw this heightened volatility last week—just look at the size of the candles, and you can tell how quickly sentiment can shift.
Below 5965 (the HVL level), we are in a high volatility zone what lies underneath?
1st Support Range: 5780–5800
5800: Currently the strongest PUT support level on the downside. A correction may pause here due to profit-taking.
Right beneath this level is the previous gap-fill zone. Remember, these areas function as ranges rather than single lines, as I’ve highlighted down to 5780. This could easily be a take-profit target for traders playing gap fills—an approach that’s quite popular.
2nd Support Range: 5700–5650 (Very Strong)
Starting at 5700: We encounter another robust PUT support zone.
This area is reinforced by previous lows, previous highs, and the 4/8 grid boundary from our indicator.
Even if nowhere else, many expect at least a local rebound to occur within these levels.
Putting it all together, it’s clear that the weekly trading range is shaping up to be roughly between 5680 and 5965, expecting big & volatile moves.
Remember, CPI and PPI data are coming out on Tuesday and Wednesday, which could trigger additional volatility.
When looking at SPX, SPY, or /ES futures, my opinion is that the rapidly spiking implied volatility (IV) during a market drop, along with a PUT pricing skew, can present favorable opportunities for options traders. The distance to the strongest lower support zone is around 100–150 points, so you could:
Trade directionally for the short term—hoping to be either right or wrong quickly, or
Try to profit from the market situation in a more strategic way (which is what I typically do).
Personally, I prefer the second approach:
I’ll open short-term (a few days) credit put ratio spreads for a small credit, which gives me a wide breakeven range and a big “tent” on the downside.
EURCAD A Fall Expected! SELL!
My dear friends,
EURCAD looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 1.4885 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Goal - 1.4814
Recommended Stop Loss - 1.4929
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
TRUMP's crypto euphoria is almost over? #BTC $111K TOP 1-20-25TRUMP's crypto euphoria is almost over? #BTC in the overbought zone and built bearish divergence, ready for bearish reversal, so far no bearish reversal signal yet.
Be ready for bearish reversal form #BTC top level around $111-112K!!!
#BTCUSD #BCHUSD #ETHUSD #ETCUSD #ADAUSD #TONUSD #SOLUSD
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