Can it Reach New Highs as USD Weakens?EUR/USD: Euro's Resilience Holds Strong – Can it Reach New Highs as USD Weakens?
🌍 Macro Landscape: EUR/USD Rides Risk-On Sentiment and Fed Cut Hopes
The Euro (EUR) is showing significant strength, maintaining its position near a three-year high against the US Dollar (USD). This resilience is largely fueled by a moderately positive risk appetite in the market.
Simultaneously, the US Dollar is facing considerable downward pressure. This weakness stems from recent weaker-than-expected economic data from the United States and increasing market expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to implement interest rate cuts. If US economic indicators continue to soften, it could solidify the case for earlier Fed rate cuts, further undermining the USD and potentially boosting EUR/USD.
🏦 Central Bank Policy: Diverging Paths for ECB and Fed
Federal Reserve (Fed): The market is increasingly pricing in the likelihood of Fed interest rate cuts. Weaker US data strengthens this narrative, as the Fed might be compelled to ease monetary policy to support economic growth. This dovish outlook for the Fed is a key driver of USD weakness.
European Central Bank (ECB): While the provided information focuses on the EUR's strength due to broader market sentiment and USD weakness, the ECB's more measured approach to monetary policy compared to the Fed's potential easing can create a favorable interest rate differential for the Euro, attracting capital flows.
This divergence in central bank policy expectations—with the Fed leaning towards cuts and the ECB maintaining a more cautious stance—creates a tailwind for the EUR/USD pair.
🌐 Capital Flows: Money Favors Euro Amidst USD Softness
Global capital flow models suggest that funds are increasingly moving towards assets perceived as offering better relative value or stability. As US yields become less attractive due to anticipated Fed rate cuts, capital may flow out of USD-denominated assets.
This outflow from the USD naturally benefits currencies like the Euro, especially given its current positive momentum driven by a moderate risk-on environment. The re-pricing of Fed policy risk directly influences these capital movements, contributing to the upward trajectory of EUR/USD.
📊 Technical Structure (H4 Chart Analysis): EUR/USD Eyes Key Resistance Levels
Based on the provided EUR/USD H4 chart:
Uptrend intact: The pair continues to exhibit a positive trend, characterized by higher lows and higher highs within an ascending channel.
Key Resistance Levels:
Initial Resistance: 1.16330. This level aligns with recent highs and the top of the minor channel. A break above this suggests further bullish momentum.
Major Resistance Zone: 1.17031. This is indicated as a significant resistance area, potentially a long-term target or a reversal point. A break here would confirm strong bullish conviction.
Key Support Levels:
Immediate Support: 1.15470. This level has acted as a support point, aligning with the EMA 200 and a Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential bounce area.
Strong Support Zone: 1.15249. This zone represents a robust demand area, aligning with previous price action and serving as a crucial level for bulls to defend.
Moving Averages (EMA 13-34-89-200): The price is trading above the short-term and long-term EMAs, suggesting strong bullish momentum. The EMAs are fanning out and showing a bullish alignment, reinforcing the uptrend.
Projected Price Action: The chart suggests that the price might retrace towards the 1.15470 or 1.15249 support zones before resuming its upward trajectory towards the 1.16330 and potentially 1.17031 resistance levels.
🎯 Trade Strategy Recommendations:
Scenario 1 – BUY the Dip:
Entry: Look for bullish confirmation around 1.15470 - 1.15249.
Stop-Loss: Below 1.15100 (or a level below the 1.15249 support for risk management).
Take-Profit:
TP1: 1.15600
TP2: 1.15800
TP3: 1.16000
TP4: 1.16200
TP5: 1.16330 (Targeting the immediate resistance)
TP6: 1.16500
TP7: 1.16800
TP8: 1.17031 (Targeting the major resistance)
Scenario 2 – SELL the Rally (Counter-trend/Reversal):
Entry: Look for bearish confirmation around 1.16330 - 1.16400 or higher near 1.17031.
Stop-Loss: Above 1.16500 (or above 1.17100 if selling at higher resistance).
Take-Profit:
TP1: 1.16200
TP2: 1.16000
TP3: 1.15800
TP4: 1.15600
TP5: 1.15470 (Targeting the immediate support)
TP6: 1.15249 (Targeting the strong support zone)
⚠️ Key Events to Watch:
Upcoming US Economic Data: Any further weak data could solidify Fed rate cut expectations and weigh on the USD.
ECB Official Statements: Comments from ECB members on inflation or monetary policy could impact EUR's strength.
Global Risk Sentiment: A continued moderate risk-on environment will generally support the EUR against the USD.
Trade smart and stay informed! Wishing everyone a successful trading day!
Trading
Powell's Softer Tone Hints at Gold's LiftoffXAUUSD: Powell's Softer Tone Hints at Gold's Liftoff – Ready for a July Rally?
Hey everyone!
Let's dive into XAUUSD today! We've got some sweet news from Fed Chair Jerome Powell that could be a game-changer for Gold.
🌍 Macro Edge: Gold Breathes Easier as Rate Pressures May Ease!
Gold's recent climb is largely thanks to Powell's "soft-spoken" remarks. He's openly admitted that tariff-driven inflation is lower than expected, even subtly hinting at earlier rate cuts – perhaps as soon as July!
Despite his "no need to rush" stance, the market's getting a clear message: if inflation keeps cooling down, the Fed will have room to loosen policy sooner. This is music to Gold's ears! Lower rates mean a reduced opportunity cost for holding Gold (which doesn't yield), making it far more attractive to investors.
🌐 Capital Flows: Gold vs. USD – Who's the Next Safe-Haven King?
Market liquidity always dances to the tune of interest rates and risks. Gold and the USD typically share the safe-haven crown during volatile times.
However, if Powell's "dovish tilt" holds, and the Fed cuts rates soon, prepare for a significant capital shift:
USD might cool off: Lower US yields reduce the USD's appeal.
Gold takes the spotlight: With lower holding costs and persistent global geopolitical uncertainties, Gold could see a surge in demand.
The market's re-pricing of Fed policy is already bolstering Gold, signaling a potential upside move on the horizon!
📊 Technical Insight (H4/M30 Chart): Gold Breaking Free, Targeting Higher Peaks!
Looking at our XAUUSD chart (H4/M30, based on your image):
Channel Breakout: Gold has clearly broken out of its prior descending channel! This is a positive sign, indicating weakening selling pressure and a potential trend reversal. Price is consolidating, possibly forming a new accumulation pattern or a minor ascending channel.
Key Levels to Watch:
Potential SELL Zone (Resistance): Around 3352.383 - 3371.205. This is a major historical resistance cluster where Gold has previously met strong selling pressure. Watch for rejection here.
Higher Resistance: 3391.750 - 3395.000. A decisive break above this level would signal a more robust long-term bullish trend.
Current BUY Zone (Support): Around 3302.939 - 3311.214. This is a critical demand zone where strong buying interest is likely to emerge, aligning with recent lows.
Next Key Support: 3286.257. This is the next line of defense if the current BUY zone breaks.
🎯 Trade Plan & Key Zones:
BUY ZONE: 3286 - 3284
SL: 3280
TP: 3290 - 3294 - 3298 - 3302 - 3306 - 3310 - 3315 - 3320
BUY SCALP: 3302 - 3300
SL: 3295
TP: 3306 - 3310 - 3314 - 3318 - 3322 - 3326 - 3330
SELL ZONE: 3353 - 3355
SL: 3360
TP: 3350 - 3346 - 3340 - 3335 - 3330 - 3320
SELL ZONE: 3372 - 3374
SL: 3378
TP: 3370 - 3366 - 3362 - 3358 - 3354 - 3350
⚠️ What Else to Watch For:
More Fed Official Speeches: Any new comments on inflation or policy will keep the market buzzing.
Geopolitical Developments: Ongoing global tensions can always boost Gold's safe-haven appeal.
Let's trade smart and stay sharp! Wishing everyone a successful trading day!
Silver Outperforms Gold, Eyes $36Silver climbed back toward $36, bouncing from over two-week lows on falling Treasury yields and a softer dollar. While the Israel-Iran ceasefire remains shaky, Fed Chair Powell said “many paths are possible,” hinting at a flexible rate stance depending on job market data.
Strong industrial demand and tight supply continue to support silver, which is up nearly 9% in June, far outpacing gold’s modest gains.
Resistance is seen at 37.50, while support holds at 35.40.
EURCHF: Bearish Continuation After Breakout 🇪🇺🇨🇭
EURCHF violated a significant horizontal support.
Retesting that, a bearish flag pattern was formed.
Its support violation provides a strong intraday confirmation.
The pair may drop lower at least to 0.9328
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CRUDE OIL (WTI): Bullish Move From Support
WTI Crude Oil may continue rising from an underlined blue support cluster.
As a confirmation, I see a quick liquidity grab below that and a consequent
bullish imbalance candle on an hourly time frame.
I expect a rise to 66.24
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SOXL 1D — With a base like this, the ride’s worth itOn the daily chart of SOXL, since early March, a textbook inverse head and shoulders pattern has formed and is now in its activation phase. The left shoulder sits at $16.67, the head at $7.21, and the right shoulder at $15.11. The symmetry is classic, with volume stabilization and a narrowing range — all the elements are in place.
The key moment was the breakout through the descending daily trendline around $19.00. Price didn’t just pierce the level — it held above it, signaling a phase shift. There was an attempt to break through the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $19.60, which led to a pullback — not on heavy selling, but on decreasing volume. This wasn’t a rejection, it was a pause.
This pullback serves as a retest of the breakout zone and the 20-day moving average. The overall structure remains bullish: price stays above all key EMAs and MAs, RSI climbs past 60, and the candlestick structure is stable. Volume rises during up moves and fades during pullbacks — classic signs of reaccumulation.
The measured target from the pattern is $32.00, calculated from the head-to-neckline height projected from the breakout point. As long as price holds above $18.40, the setup remains intact. A break above $19.60 with confirmation would open the door to acceleration.
This isn’t a momentum play — it’s a setup months in the making. The structure is there, the confirmation is there, and most importantly — the price behavior makes sense. With a base like this, the ride ahead looks worth taking.
NZD_CAD SHORT FROM RESISTANCE|
✅NZD_CAD will soon retest a key resistance level of 0.8320
So I think that the pair will make a pullback
And go down to retest the demand level below at 0.8267
SHORT🔥
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GOLD Risky Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
GOLD made a bullish
Rebound but will soon
Hit a wide horizontal
Resistance of around 3,345$
And as we are locally bearish
Biased after the recent rising
Support breakout we will be
Expecting a bearish pullback
And a local move down
Sell!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 25, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 25, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
💱 Dollar Slides on Middle East Ceasefire Optimism
A fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran lifted risk sentiment across global markets. The U.S. dollar weakened, while the euro and British pound hovered near multi‑year highs
📈 Equities Near Record Highs
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq pushed toward all-time highs on June 25, supported by the Middle East truce and retreating energy prices. The S&P 500 rallied ~1.1%, with tech and discretionary sectors leading the charge
🛢 Oil & Treasuries Dip, Yield Cuts Anticipated
Oil plunged ~6% to ~$65/bbl as conflict fears eased. Softer prices plus weak consumer confidence spurred expectations of up to 60 bps in Fed rate cuts by December; Treasury yields pulled back accordingly
📉 Consumer Confidence Falls Again
The Conference Board’s index dropped to 93—the lowest level since May 2020—as concerns over tariffs and job availability weighed on households
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Wednesday, June 25:
(No major U.S. economic data scheduled)
Markets remain focused on geopolitical dynamics, Fed commentary, and next week’s PCE inflation release.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #geopolitics #Fed #inflation #technicalanalysis
NATGAS SUPPORT AHEAD|LONG|
✅NATGAS is going down now
But a strong support level is ahead at 3.450$
Thus I am expecting a rebound
And a move up towards the target of 3.600$
LONG🚀
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AUD-CAD Will Go Down! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
AUD-CAD made a retest
Of the wide horizontal
Resistance around 0.8934
And we are already seeing a
Local bearish reaction so
We will be expecting a
Further bearish move down
Sell!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
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Fed speak - Not broken, not cutting “Don’t fix what isn’t broken” seems to be the Fed’s current stance. Two Fed officials made that clear over the last 24 hours.
Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr warned that tariffs could fuel inflation by lifting short-term expectations, triggering second-round effects, and making inflation more persistent.
New York Fed President John Williams echoed that view, noting that tariff-driven inflation is “likely to get stronger in the months ahead.” He also called policy “well positioned” and said the Fed needs more data before making any move.
EUR/USD has formed a rising wedge pattern on the daily chart—typically a bearish structure that warns of a potential reversal. Price action has narrowed, building two clear tops. The downside target from the wedge could potentially be 1.1066 initially, and possibly down to 1.0732 if bearish momentum accelerates.
CAD_CHF RETESTING LOWS|LONG|
✅CAD_CHF will be retesting a support level soon around 0.5830
Which is a deeps low for the pair
From where I am expecting a bullish reaction
With the price going up but we need
To wait for a reversal pattern to form
Before entering the trade, so that we
Get a higher success probability of the trade
LONG🚀
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GBP-CHF Support Ahead! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
GBP-CHF is going down now
And the pair will soon hit a
Horizontal support level below
Around 1.0933 from where
We will be expecting a
Local rebound and a move up
Buy!
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US30: The Market Is Looking Up! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse US30 together☺️
The price is near a wide key level
and the pair is approaching a significant decision level of 43,045.6 Therefore, a strong bullish reaction here could determine the next move up.We will watch for a confirmation candle, and then target the next key level of 43,152.9.Recommend Stop-loss is beyond the current level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
SILVER: Strong Bullish Sentiment! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse SILVER together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break above the current local range around 35.758 will confirm the new direction upwards with the target being the next key level of 36.094 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
EURUSD: Bears Are Winning! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse EURUSD together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding below a key level of 1.16242 So a bearish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next low. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
AUDUSD Sellers In Panic! BUY!
My dear followers,
This is my opinion on the AUDUSD next move:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 0.6427
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Goal - 0.6462
About Used Indicators:
For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AUDCAD The Target Is UP! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
AUDCAD looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 0.8830 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 0.8861
About Used Indicators:
The average true range (ATR) plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
GBPAUD Trading Opportunity! SELL!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for GBPAUD below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 2.0968
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Lowanticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 2.0858
Safe Stop Loss - 2.1029
About Used Indicators:
The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
GBPUSD Technical Analysis! SELL!
My dear friends,
GBPUSD looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 1.3622 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Goal - 1.3558
Recommended Stop Loss - 1.3653
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
EURCHF Set To Grow! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the EURCHF next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 0.9359
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 0.9386
My Stop Loss - 0.9345
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK