S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 13, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the trading session this week, the S&P 500 index has exhibited a consistent steady to a lower trajectory, progressing towards our newly established support target of 6034. There remains the potential for a further decline to the subsequent Outer Index Dip level at 5980. Conversely, a notable upside movement via the previously retested Key Res 6090 level is anticipated, which may facilitate a rally to the Outer Index Rally target of 6123; this development will likely pave the way for the next phase of the bullish trend.
Trading
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 13, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Eurodollar has demonstrated bearish momentum during this week's trading session by staying firmly between Mean Res 1.060 and Mean Sup 1.049. This weak price action might be the clue to nulling the Inner Currency Rally 1.072 and extending its trajectory to revisiting the completed Outer Currency Dip 1.035. Nevertheless, it is essential to note that the Eurodollar may retest the Mean Res level at 1.060 and reignite its upward trend.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec13, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Bitcoin's repeated pullback in this week's trading session by upholding firmly at the Mean Sup 96000 price level within the completion of the Inner Coin Rally 103600 is now noted. Recent analyses indicate that the cryptocurrency will likely retest the completed Inner Coin Rally 103600 by navigating the weak Mean Resistance 102300. This movement is anticipated to revitalize its upward trajectory toward the projected Outer #1 Coin Rally 110000 and beyond. Furthermore, a potential decline to the Mean Support 97000 would prepare the market for the subsequent phase of a bullish trend.
NQ1! BEST PLACE TO SELL FROM|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
We are now examining the NQ1! pair and we can see that the pair is going up locally while also being in a uptrend on the 1W TF. But there is also a powerful signal from the BB upper band being nearby, indicating that the pair is overbought so we can go short from the resistance line above and a target at 21,219.75 level.
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EUR/JPY BEARS ARE STRONG HERE|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
It makes sense for us to go short on EUR/JPY right now from the resistance line above with the target of 160.038 because of the confluence of the two strong factors which are the general downtrend on the previous 1W candle and the overbought situation on the lower TF determined by it’s proximity to the upper BB band.
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EUR/CAD SHORT FROM RESISTANCE
Hello, Friends!
Previous week’s green candle means that for us the EUR/CAD pair is in the uptrend. And the current movement leg was also up but the resistance line will be hit soon and upper BB band proximity will signal an overbought condition so we will go for a counter-trend short trade with the target being at 1.490.
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SANDUSD: +3000% rally is already underway.Sandbox just turned bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 58.400, MACD = 0.097, ADX = 49.1720) as following a 1D Golden Cross, it entered a very strong rally, which has now neutralized the trend and is consolidating. The 1D RSI is turning into a Bullish Flag, resembling the rally of the previous Cycle that started in January 2021. That rise didn't break under the 1D MA50 before peaking on a massive +3,000% growth. We are bullish, expecting a similar rally (TP = 6.5000).
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USD_CHF RISKY SHORT|
✅USD_CHF is retesting a resistance level of 0.8957
From where I am expecting a bearish reaction
With the price going down but we need
To wait for a reversal pattern to form
Before entering the trade, so that we
Get a higher success probability of the trade
SHORT🔥
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Why Buy LLY?A textbook spike trade... that's why!
Every morning the stock market open gives us opening volatility spikes on the first 30 minute bar. Most are noise but when that rare one comes along that fits my rules AND has multiple matching confluences... it's time to "Strike at the Spike!"
This setup has going for it:
At a 50% Retracement of the recent trend (from November 18 - December 4)
At the top of a Gap Level
At the Volume Profile Point-of-Control for the last year of price action (see below)
With a Spike that my indicator shows >80% ATR Clearance I consider the baseline for a trade; this one is 150% so it definitely fits the rules. I would take a spike if there were only 2 of those matching levels above. Targeting the local high for the first take profit at 834.
Here is the Daily chart for just how key this level is:
Full disclosure: NYSE:LLY is and has been one of my biggest holdings; having owned the stock for over a decade.
Market Dominance Analysis–Bullish for Altcoins, Caution AdvisedKey Observations:
Dominance Rejection: The market dominance faced a strong rejection after reaching the 58% level, aligning with key resistance at the 7 and 21-day EMAs. This suggests a bullish signal for altcoins, as the dominance pullback indicates a potential shift in momentum away from Bitcoin.
Bullish Shift for Altcoins: Altcoins are positioned to benefit from this shift, especially if dominance continues to weaken. The key support for dominance lies around the 200-day EMA, and if dominance closes this week below this level, further bullish potential for altcoins could unfold.
Key Levels to Monitor:
Resistance for Dominance: Should dominance attempt to rise again, watch for potential resistance at 54.5% and 53% levels. These could act as key turning points, marking possible take-profit (TP) zones for altcoins as dominance struggles to break higher.
Strategy for Altcoins:
Cautious Optimism: While the rejection of dominance is a bullish signal, altcoins should remain cautious of dips into the danger zones around 54.5% and 53% dominance, which could pose resistance.
Target Zones: The shift in momentum suggests potential for continued altcoin strength, with dominance weakening if the candle close remains under the 200-day EMA.
Conclusion: The recent rejection of dominance is a strong bullish sign for altcoins, but traders should keep a close eye on the danger zones around the 54.5% and 53% dominance levels. If dominance fails to reclaim these areas, altcoins could continue to see further gains.
USD-CAD Bullish Breakout! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
USD-CAD is trading in a
Strong uptrend and the
pair made a breakout of
The key horizontal level
Of 1.4180 and the breakout
Is confirmed so we are
Bullish biased and we will
Be expecting a further
Bullish move up
Buy!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
Ethereum (ETH) – Bearish Divergence Signals CautionTechnical Outlook:
Bearish Divergence: Ethereum's daily oscillator continues to show reversal signals, suggesting weakening bullish momentum after recent highs.
Trend Status: Until ETH breaks decisively above recent highs, the current downtrend remains intact, signaling the need for caution among bulls.
Key Levels to Monitor:
Resistance: A breakout and close above $4,000 would signal renewed bullish strength and open new trade opportunities, particularly on any successful retests of this level.
Support: Failure to hold current levels could see ETH revisit $3,400-$3,600, a critical support zone.
Current Strategy for Bulls:
Exercise caution until a decisive break above recent highs confirms momentum reversal.
Watch for a potential buying opportunity on retests of $4,000 if breakout strength materializes.
Conclusion: The market remains at a critical juncture. Bulls need to stay patient and vigilant, awaiting confirmation of renewed upward strength before positioning aggressively.
Macroeconomic analysis, positioning, technical analysis. Short GHello everyone, today I want to share a trading idea that recently triggered my short entry.
The GBP/AUD pair is hovering near period highs not seen since 2020.
I think in the short term we might witness some pullback. Let’s analyze the situation.
MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS
- Data
The latest data reflects a marked improvement in the Australian labor market, with the unemployment rate beating expectations. A rise to 4.2% was forecasted, but the figure dropped to 3.9%. This comes after the RBA decided to keep the reference rate unchanged, adopting a dovish tone compared to recent statements. It remains to be seen if this data could shift the narrative once again.
- Economic growth
The positioning and momentum on the pound indicate confidence that the economy could grow by 2025 or that inflation will remain stickier than expected. This affects the BOE’s monetary policy decisions. Interest rates have risen more than in other economies and are now at their peaks. On the other hand, the BOE recently adopted a dovish tone, suggesting the possibility of four rate cuts in 2025.
In a recent article, Goldman Sachs highlighted that the UK’s growth might underperform expectations. UK GDP is expected to grow by 1.2% in 2025, slower than the Bank of England's 1.5% projection and slightly below Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 1.3%. The team predicts growth of 0.4% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the last quarter of 2024, with a slowdown to around 0.25–0.30% quarterly for the remainder of the year. They also foresee inflationary pressures easing through 2025, paving the way for deeper rate cuts than currently priced in by the market.
www.goldmansachs.com
- Interest rates
Interest rates in the UK have risen more than in other economies, reaching a peak of 4.6%, reflecting aggressive rate policies. Meanwhile, AUD/USD movements appear closely tied to Chinese rates, which are at historic lows, potentially priming for a rebound and, consequently, a recovery in the cross, due to potential stimulus measures for the Chinese economy.
POSITIONING
- COT (Commitment of Traders)
Let’s analyze the COT to check for extremes on either side.
www.tradingster.com .
Long positioning on the pound is at its highest since 2018, while for the Australian dollar, we are in negative territory after a decline. Momentum does not favor either currency, as traders are offloading or increasing short positions.
SEASONALITY
We are entering a period of strong negative seasonality for the pound, which typically tends to decline from the first week of December until the end of the month.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
From a chart perspective, the pair has just broken a dynamic trendline support on the 4H chart after a strong rally to period highs. The RSI clearly shows overbought conditions with bearish divergence.
Entry: Upon the break or retest of the trendline.
Stop Loss: Above the volume area signaling the break.
Take Profit: Near the volume area supporting the price.
Thanks for your attention!
USD/JPY Analysis: Recovery Amidst Economic ShiftsThe US Dollar (USD) continues to make gains against the Japanese Yen (JPY), particularly following an upward revision of Japan's GDP for the third quarter. As a result, the USD/JPY pair has climbed back above the 150.45 level while I write this article. The Yen is facing some selling pressure, significantly influenced by growing uncertainties about the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) potential interest rate hikes in December, which has contributed to the JPY's underperformance against its USD counterpart.
From a technical analysis viewpoint, the recent price rebound has occurred in a notable demand area on the weekly chart, where the currency pair has shown a decisive response. The price action suggests that there is strong buying interest in this zone, which may set the stage for further upward movement in the USD.
Interestingly, seasonal forecasts hint at a possible bearish trend based on historical data over the last ten years. However, the current market dynamics and the way the price has reacted to the demand area indicate that there might be the potential for upward momentum for the USD in the near term.
Additionally, geopolitical tensions and concerns surrounding incoming US President-elect Donald Trump's anticipated trade tariffs add another layer of complexity to the situation. Such uncertainties regarding trade policies are likely to support the Japanese Yen as a safe-haven currency, but the evolving landscape could limit significant downside movements.
As investors prepare for the upcoming US consumer inflation figures, many may choose to remain on the sidelines. These data points will be crucial, as they could provide insight into the Federal Reserve’s trajectory regarding interest rate cuts, which in turn could enhance market momentum for the USD/JPY pair.
With the current technical setup and market sentiment, we are keenly observing for a long entry point in the USD/JPY pair. As the economic landscape evolves and we gather more data, this strategy may provide advantageous opportunities for traders looking to capitalize on potential USD strength against the Yen.
In summary, amidst the shifts in economic indicators and geopolitical challenges, the USD/JPY pair is positioned for potential upward movement, marking an exciting time for traders in this currency market.
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EURJPY What Next? SELL!
My dear followers,
This is my opinion on the EURJPY next move:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 161.26
Bias - Bearish
Safe Stop Loss - 162.54
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Goal - 159.06
About Used Indicators:
For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
GBPUSD The Target Is UP! BUY!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for GBPUSD below:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 1.2651
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 1.2715
Recommended Stop Loss - 1.2607
About Used Indicators:
Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
GBPAUD Massive Long! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the GBPAUD next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 1.9840
Bias -Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 1.9916
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
US100 Is Very Bearish! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for US100.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 21,766.7.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 20,570.5 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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BITCOIN Is Going Up! Buy!
Please, check our technical outlook for BITCOIN.
Time Frame: 3h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 100,153.20.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 102,181.06 level soon.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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