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Gold Breaks the Range: Trend Reversal or Just a Fakeout?XAUUSD – Gold Breaks the Range: Trend Reversal or Just a Fakeout? After several days of sideways action, gold has finally broken out of its consolidation channel — but not upward. The price action signals uncertainty, while underlying global risks suggest a larger move may be brewing. With US markets closed for a bank holiday, low liquidity could lead to sharp, unexpected spikes — traders, stay alert. 🌍 Macro & Fundamental Outlook 📌 As widely expected, the Federal Reserve held rates steady, but Fed Chair Powell maintained a hawkish tone, warning that inflation risks remain due to ongoing geopolitical instability and rising commodity costs. 🔥 The gold market now hinges on two major geopolitical scenarios in the Middle East: If the US intervenes diplomatically to ease tensions between Iran and Israel, gold may continue to correct further — possibly into the 3,325 – 3,300 range or lower. However, if reports are accurate that Trump is coordinating with Israel for potential strikes on Iran, gold could spike aggressively as safe-haven demand surges toward 3,417 – 3,440. 📊 Technical Breakdown (M30 – H1) Price has broken below the range-bound structure, suggesting a potential momentum shift to the downside. The EMA cluster (13–34–89–200) is sloping downward, confirming bearish short-term pressure. The 3,345 level has acted as support, but if it gives way, 3,325 becomes a critical liquidity zone where buyers may step in. ✅ Trading Plan 🟢 BUY ZONE 1: 3,325 – 3,328 Entry: Only after a clear bullish reversal (pin bar / bullish engulfing candle) SL: Below 3,320 TP: 3,345 → 3,360 → 3,373 → 3,384 🟢 BUY ZONE 2: 3,345 – 3,348 Entry: On price retest and bullish confirmation SL: Below 3,340 TP: 3,360 → 3,373 → 3,384 → 3,403 🔴 SELL ZONE: 3,417 – 3,440 Entry: If price rallies into resistance with no supporting fundamentals SL: Above 3,445 TP: 3,403 → 3,384 → 3,360 → 3,345 💬 Final Thoughts Gold is at a pivotal point. While today’s break could indicate a new leg down, we’ve seen countless false breakouts during low liquidity sessions. Only trade on confirmation — not emotion. Watch for geopolitical headlines and let price action guide your risk-adjusted decisions. Stay patient. Stay sharp. Let the market prove itself before you do.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MMFlowTrading
1
What Is T-Distribution in Trading? What Is T-Distribution in Trading? In the financial markets, understanding T-distribution in probability is a valuable skill. This statistical concept, crucial for small sample sizes, offers insights into market trends and risks. By grasping T-distribution, traders gain a powerful tool for evaluating strategies, risks, and portfolios. Let's delve into what T-distribution is and how it's effectively used in the realm of trading. Understanding T-Distribution The T-distribution in probability distribution plays a crucial role in trading, especially in situations where sample sizes are small. William Sealy Gosset first introduced it under the pseudonym "Student". This distribution resembles the normal distribution with its bell-shaped curve but has thicker tails, meaning it predicts more outcomes in the extreme ends than a normal distribution would. A key element of T-distribution is the concept of 'degrees of freedom', which essentially refers to the number of values in a calculation that are free to vary. It's usually the sample size minus one. The degrees of freedom affect the shape of the T-distribution; with fewer degrees of freedom, the distribution has heavier tails. As the degrees of freedom increase, the distribution starts to resemble the normal distribution more closely. This is particularly significant in trading when dealing with small data sets, where the T-distribution provides a more accurate estimation of probability and risk than the normal distribution. T-Distribution vs Normal Distribution T-distribution and normal distribution are foundational in statistical analysis, yet they serve different purposes. While both exhibit a bell-shaped curve, the T-distribution has thicker tails, implying a higher probability of extreme values. This makes it more suitable for small sample sizes or when the standard deviation is unknown. In contrast, the normal distribution, with its thinner tails, is ideal for larger sample sets where the standard deviation is known. Traders often use T-distribution for more accurate analysis in small-scale or uncertain data scenarios, while normal distribution is preferred for larger, more stable datasets, where extreme outcomes are less likely. Application in Trading In trading, T-distribution is a valuable tool for analysing financial data. It is primarily used in constructing confidence intervals and conducting hypothesis testing, which are essential for making informed trading decisions. For instance, a trader might use T-distribution to test the effectiveness of a new trading strategy. Suppose a trader has developed a strategy using the technical analysis tools and wants to understand its potential effectiveness compared to the general market performance. They would collect a sample of returns from this strategy over a period, say, 30 days. Given the small sample size, using T-distribution is appropriate here. The trader would then calculate the mean return of this sample and use T-distribution to create a confidence interval. This interval would provide a range within which the true mean return of the strategy is likely to lie, with a certain level of confidence. If this confidence interval shows a higher mean return than the market average, the trader might conclude that the strategy is potentially effective. However, it's important to note that this is an estimation and not a guarantee of future performance. How to Plug Probability and Normal Distribution in Your T-Calculation To use a T-calculator for integrating probability and normal distribution, follow these steps: - Input Degrees of Freedom: For T-distribution, calculate the degrees of freedom (sample size minus one). - Convert Z-Score to T-Value: If using normal distribution data, convert the Z-score (standard deviation units from the mean in a normal distribution) to a T-value using the formula: T = Z * (sqrt(n)), where 'n' is the sample size. - Enter T-Value: Input this T-value into the calculator. - Calculate Probability: The calculator will then output the probability, providing a statistical basis for trading decisions based on the T-distribution. Limitations and Considerations of T-Distribution While T-distribution is a powerful tool in trading analysis, it's important to recognise its limitations and considerations: - Sample Size Sensitivity: T-distribution is most effective with small sample sizes. As the sample size increases, it converges to a normal distribution, reducing its distinct utility. - Assumption of Normality: T-distribution assumes that the underlying data is approximately normally distributed. This may not hold true for all financial data sets, especially those with significant skewness or kurtosis. - Degrees of Freedom Complications: Misestimating degrees of freedom can lead to inaccurate results. It's crucial to calculate this correctly based on the sample data. - Outlier Sensitivity: T-distribution can be overly sensitive to outliers in the data, which can skew results. Advanced Applications of T-Distribution in Trading T-distribution extends beyond basic trading applications, playing a role in advanced financial analyses: - Risk Modelling: Utilised in constructing sophisticated risk models, helping traders assess the probability of extreme losses. - Algorithmic Trading: Integral in developing complex algorithms. - Portfolio Optimisation: Assists in optimising portfolios by estimating returns and risks of various assets. - Market Research: Used in advanced market research methodologies to analyse small sample behavioural studies. The Bottom Line The T-distribution is a powerful tool, offering nuanced insights in scenarios involving small sample sizes or uncertain standard deviations. Its ability to accommodate real-world data's quirks makes it invaluable for various trading applications, from strategy testing to risk assessment. However, understanding its limitations and proper application is crucial for accurate analysis. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by FXOpen
1
Gold Price Analysis June 19Yesterday's D1 candle confirmed the Sell side after the FOMC announcement. Today's Asian session had a push but the European and American sessions are likely to sell again. 3366 will be an important breakout zone today, if it breaks through, the Sell side will continue to be strong and push the price deeper and limit buying when breaking this zone. 3344 is the first target when breaking, it is quite difficult for gold to break this zone, but if it breaks right away, wait below 3296 to BUY for safety. 3398 is the Breakout border zone from yesterday to today, to SELL this zone also has to wait for confirmation, but if you want to wait for a better SELL, you have to wait for 3415 and the ATH peak 3443. However, if it breaks 3400, waiting for a Buy test will be quite nice.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
Strait of Hormuz risk priced in—or not yet?Iran has repeatedly threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz during periods of heightened tension with the U.S., notably in 2011, 2018, and 2020. The Strait is considered the world’s most critical oil chokepoint, with nearly 20 million barrels passing through daily. Several banks warn that a full closure could push crude prices above $120–$150 per barrel, or higher if the disruption is prolonged. Still, most analysts view a complete shutdown as unlikely, since Iran also depends on the Strait to export its own oil. Technically, recent WTI candles suggest that the risk premium may be fading. Price action near $74 shows hesitation, raising the risk of a developing double top—particularly if support at $70 fails. Unless tensions escalate materially, such as the U.S. becoming more directly involved, WTI may consolidate between $70–$74.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by BlackBull_Markets
2
ETH – Rounded Distribution Before the Punch Higher?What we’re seeing here is a potential fakeout setup within a value zone. Notice the rounded top formation — looks bearish — but price refuses to break the low. This often sets the stage for a sharp reversal. Structure Breakdown: Volume profile shows acceptance in current range Rounded top shape implies weakness — but no breakdown = trap potential Price holds a higher low inside the range = absorption Green box marks ideal long entry area — well-defined invalidation below Bullish case: We’re watching for that reclaim of the mid-level → quick push into the upper range Target zone = 2,618 (clean inefficiency fill + local top) Bearish trap scenario invalidated if price closes below red box (stop hunt level) Strategy bias: This is a compression-reversal trap — fake weakness to trap shorts, then launch. Patience pays here — if it reclaims and consolidates at the mid, it’s time to ride. 📊 More setups like this, early in structure, are shared inside the account description. Tap in for the breakdowns.
by SmartFlowsI
BTC – Stop Hunt at the Edge of ValueThis is what a liquidity raid looks like. Price just swept the bottom of the range, tapped into the low-volume zone (as seen on the volume profile), and reclaimed — classic sign of a trap sprung. Key points: The downtrend line labeled “comp” = compression — bulls forced to capitulate into a thin zone High probability deviation with stop run and reclaim — this fuels the next move up The green box shows risk-defined entry off the sweep low Targeting the prior high: 106,787 Volume imbalance filled = no inefficiency above — price can now move cleanly Execution mindset: Trap spring → retrace into structure → expansion Risk is clear, liquidity is engineered, structure remains Late shorts just became the fuel. Watch the reclaim of the box top. If that flips support, we ride momentum. 📈 For more setups like this — including pre-breakout traps — check the description in the profile.
by SmartFlowsI
They want AVAX to look weak down here Everyone’s staring at the recent drop like it’s collapse. I see rotation into discount. AVAX is tagging the 0.786 retracement (17.27) — the same level that Smart Money builds into before it reclaims value. Breakdown of the move: The range top at 26.86 marked the premium; we’ve now delivered deep into the 0.786 No displacement through the previous swing low — yet Structure remains intact if 14.66 holds — anything above that is deliberate discount rebalancing, not failure This is where liquidity collects before decisions are made. Execution lens: Accumulation zone: 17.27–14.66 If bulls defend this pocket, 20.76 (0.5 fib) is the first draw, then 22.20 Final delivery window sits between 22.20–23.98 — where late buyers chase AVAX doesn’t need a narrative. Price is the narrative. Watch this base. And if it holds — don’t act surprised when it’s 20+. For more setups that map where, not when — check the profile description.
by SmartFlowsI
Most see capitulation. I see clean premium-to-discount deliveryPEPE just swept deep into the 0.786 retracement — right where most fear sets in. But Smart Money? This is where they reaccumulate. The structure isn't broken — it's resetting. Here’s what the chart tells me: Price dipped straight into the FVG + 0.786 (0.00000945) zone That's the deepest discount before structural invalidation — exactly where Smart Money looks for reversal footprints The upside draw sits cleanly at 0.00001194 (0.5 fib), with an extension possible toward 0.00001297 and even 0.00001424 This move down didn’t violate anything. It rebalanced prior inefficiency and opened the door for premium delivery. Execution logic: Accumulate within 0.00000945–0.00000918 (discount zone) Invalidation: break below 0.00000758 closes the book on this setup Targets: 0.00001194 → 0.00001297 → 0.00001424 The biggest moves don’t start when it feels safe. They start when it feels late. For setups like this — built on logic, not luck — check the profile description. I trade where Smart Money trades.
by SmartFlowsI
SILVER: Target Is Down! Short! My dear friends, Today we will analyse SILVER together☺️ The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 36.878 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 36.687..Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone. ❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
FOREXCOM:XAGUSDShort
by FreeXauusdSignals
2
GBPUSD Set To Grow! BUY! My dear friends, My technical analysis for GBPUSD is below: The market is trading on 1.3462 pivot level. Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation. Target - 1.3528 Recommended Stop Loss - 1.3421 About Used Indicators: A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long
by AnabelSignals
1
Best Free Volatility Indicator on TradingView for Gold Forex This free technical indicator will help you easily measure the market volatility on Forex, Gold or any other market. It will show you when the market is quiet , when it's active and when it's dangerous . We will go through the settings of this indicator, and you will learn how to set it up on TradingView. Historical Volatility Indicator This technical indicator is called Historical Volatility. It is absolutely free and available on TradingView, MetaTrader 4/5 and other popular trading terminals. TradingView Setup Let me show you how to find it on TradingView and add it to your price chart. Open a technical price chart on TradingView and open the "Indicators" menu (you will find it at the top of the screen). Search "Historical Volatility" and click on it. It will automatically appear on your chart. "Length" parameter will define how many candles the indicator will take for measuring the average volatility. (I recommend keeping the default number, but if you need longer/shorter-term volatility, you can play with that) Timeframe drop-down list defines what time frame the indicator takes for measuring the volatility. (I recommend choosing a daily timeframe) And keep the checkboxes unchanged . How to Use the Indicator Now, let me show you how to use it properly. Wider the indicator and analyse its movement at least for the last 4 months. Find the volatility range - its low levels will be based on the lower boundary of the range, high levels will be based on its upper boundary. This is an example of such a range on USDCAD pair. When the volatility stays within the range, it is your safe time to trade. When volatility approaches its lows, it may indicate that the market might be slow . Highs of the range imply that the market is very active In-between will mean a healthy market. The Extremes The violation of a volatility range to the downside is the signal that the market is very slow . This would be the recommended period to not trade because of high chance of occurrence of fakeouts. An upward breakout of a voliatlity range is the signal of the extreme volatility . It will signify that the market is unstable , and it will be better to let it calm down before placing any trade. Volatility Analysis That is how a complete volatility analysis should look. At the moment, volatility reached extreme levels on CADJPY pair. The best strategy will be to wait till it returns within the range. Remember This With the current geopolitical uncertainty and trade wars, market volatility reaches the extreme levels. Such a volatility is very dangerous , especially for newbie traders. Historical volatility technical indicator will help you to easily spot the best period for trading and the moment when it is better to stay away. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
9
AUDNZD Trading Opportunity! SELL! My dear followers, This is my opinion on the AUDNZD next move: The asset is approaching an important pivot point 1.0786 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market. Goal - 1.0770 About Used Indicators: For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Short
by AnabelSignals
1
EURUSD The Target Is UP! BUY! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for EURUSD below: The instrument tests an important psychological level 1.1504 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Target - 1.1544 About Used Indicators: Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long
by AnabelSignals
1
US30 Is Bearish! Sell! Here is our detailed technical review for US30. Time Frame: 12h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a significant resistance area 42,254.4. Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 41,307.3 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TRADENATION:US30Short
by SignalProvider
1
ETHUSD Is Very Bullish! Buy! Take a look at our analysis for ETHUSD. Time Frame: 10h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is on a crucial zone of demand 2,508.60. The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 2,717.66 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TRADENATION:ETHUSDLong
by SignalProvider
1