Gold plunges as Trump 'trumps' seasonalsLast week I revealed in a video of my scepticism gold would tracks its seasonality into December , given its outperformance earlier in the year and the hunch that Trump 2.0 would likely to overshadow typical flows. And Trump's US Treasury Secretary cabinet pick has done just that.
Monday's price action should serve as a stark reminder that seasonality has taken a back seat with its prominent bearish engulfing day and most bearish candle in four years. And there could be further losses ahead.
The daily chart shows the drop from its all-time high (ATH) came in three waves, which suggests it is the beginning of a larger ABC retracement. Assuming Monday's engulfing candle was the end of wave B, a 100% projection (wave equality) could see gold fall to ~2460.
note that the daily low found support around a high-volume node (HVN) and weekly S1 pivot point. A bullish divergence is also forming on the 1-hour RSI (2) to suggest a bounce.
Bears could seek to fade into retracement within Monday's range to try and increase the reward to risk ratio.
MS
Trading
EUR-JPY Local Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
EUR-JPY went a bit but
A strong horizontal
Supply level of 162.500 will
Soon stand on its way up
And after the pair hits
The level we will be
Expecting a pullback
And a move down
Sell!
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Alphabet (GOOGL): Perfect wave reaction. This is our planWhat can we say except—just take a look at this. Alphabet ( NASDAQ:GOOGL ) has followed our analysis perfectly over the last two months, reacting strongly to the targeted area for wave B and selling off immediately after reaching the exact 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Fundamentally, pressure is mounting on Alphabet. Last Wednesday, U.S. prosecutors presented a case to the Department of Justice arguing that Google must sell its Chrome browser, share data and search results with rivals, and potentially sell Android to dismantle its monopoly on online search. This landmark case could reshape how users find information, creating uncertainty around Alphabet’s future operational structure.
From a technical perspective, we still anticipate more downside for $GOOGL. The level of $137.8 now appears even more significant. It aligns with the Fibonacci retracement of wave (2), the Point of Control (POC), and the wave C target—an extremely strong confluence zone. This makes $137.8 a likely magnet and a strong candidate for support, offering a potentially lucrative long setup if the price reaches this level.
We are monitoring closely to see how NASDAQ:GOOGL performs in the coming weeks and how these levels react to ongoing market conditions and DOJ pressures.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI): Could this be 2024’s comeback?Could we be witnessing one of the most remarkable comebacks of the year?
NASDAQ:SMCI surged an incredible 123% in just eight trading days, turning our position back into profit—a scenario that seemed unlikely not long ago. This highlights how patience in trading often pays off. The key reclaim of the Point of Control (POC) at $26.59 is a pivotal development. It’s crucial that NASDAQ:SMCI remains above this level as the week ends, which could also mark a significant monthly close.
On the technical side, NASDAQ:SMCI was oversold on the 3D timeframe for the first time since March 2020, which may partly explain the rapid recovery and increased buying pressure.
Fundamentally, last week marked the stock’s best five-day stretch on record following the appointment of BDO as its new independent auditor. This move, combined with a submitted compliance plan to Nasdaq, aims to address the delayed filing of its annual 10-K and quarterly 10-Q forms—previously threatening delisting.
If NASDAQ:SMCI successfully files these reports, investor confidence could soar, potentially driving the stock much higher. However, failure to meet these requirements could result in a sharp sell-off. While we could have added at the bottom, patience remains critical as the situation evolves. ✅
Trader Health: Preventing Common IssuesThe life of a trader, while exhilarating and financially rewarding, can also be fraught with unique health challenges that often go unrecognized until it’s too late. Unlike traditional jobs that offer the flexibility of sick leave and ensure a steady income during times of illness, traders operate within a high-stakes environment that demands their constant attention and decision-making. This reality places the responsibility of health maintenance squarely on the shoulders of the individual. In this post, we will explore some of the most prevalent health issues faced by traders and offer practical steps for prevention and management.
THE VITAL IMPORTANCE OF HEALTH FOR TRADERS
📍 Eye Strain and Visual Fatigue
One of the most frequent complaints among traders is eye strain, resulting from prolonged hours spent gazing at computer screens. The desire to capitalize on market opportunities often leads to extended periods of focus, which can take a toll on one's vision. To combat this common issue, traders are encouraged to:
🔹 Take Regular Breaks: Step away from the computer every two hours for at least 15 minutes to give your eyes a rest.
🔹 Utilize Diverse Strategies: Employ trading strategies that require varying levels of focus, such as alternating between short- and long-term trades. Utilizing indicators that visualize data with color-coded areas can also help reduce mental fatigue.
🔹 Practice Eye Exercises: Remember to blink frequently and shift your gaze to distant objects to alleviate strain.
🔹 Seek Medical Advice: At the first sign of visual discomfort, it’s wise to consult a healthcare professional and consider taking a break from trading.
📍 Musculoskeletal Disorders
Another significant health concern for traders is the risk of musculoskeletal disorders, including back pain and arthritis, often resulting from poor posture and extended sedentary behavior. To mitigate these risks, consider the following recommendations:
🔸 Maintain Proper Posture: Sit upright with a supportive chair and keep your screen at eye level to reduce neck strain.
🔸 Strengthen Core Muscles: Engage in regular exercises to strengthen back muscles and improve overall posture.
🔸 Change Positions Frequently: Avoid staying in one position for too long; adjust your seating arrangement or take short walks to foster movement.
📍 Psychological Well-being
Traders are also susceptible to psychological challenges, including anxiety, sleep disturbances, and addictive behaviors. The pressure to perform can create a vicious cycle of overwork and emotional strain. Address this by:
⚫️ Recognizing Signs of Stress: Be aware of the symptoms of burnout and take proactive steps to manage your workload and emotional well-being.
⚫️ Diversifying Activities: Engage in hobbies unrelated to trading to provide mental relief and prevent burnout.
⚫️ Building a Support Network: Establish connections with fellow traders or mentors to share experiences and cultivate a positive outlook on trading.
📍 Combating Harmful Habit
In an effort to cope with the stresses of trading, some may turn to alcohol or excessive caffeine. While these substances may offer temporary relief, they can lead to detrimental health effects. Instead, opt for healthier leisure activities that promote relaxation and physical health, such as:
▶️ Physical Exercise: Incorporate regular physical activity into your routine, whether through swimming, cycling, or even visiting a shooting range.
▶️ Mindfulness and Relaxation Techniques: Engage in practices such as yoga or meditation to enhance mental clarity and resilience.
📍 The Importance of Physical Activity
Prolonged periods of inactivity can lead to various health problems, including cardiovascular issues, obesity, and muscle atrophy. To counteract these effects, traders should aim to:
🔔 Break Up Sitting Time: Set a timer to remind yourself to stand and stretch or walk around every hour.
🔔 Engage in Regular Exercise: Incorporate both cardiovascular and strength-training workouts into your weekly schedule to maintain overall health.
📍 Conclusion
In the dynamic world of trading, safeguarding your health is paramount for sustained success and well-being. The rigors of this profession present unique physical and psychological challenges that, if left unaddressed, can lead to serious health implications. Ultimately, recognizing the signs of stress and prioritizing self-care is essential for achieving a balanced and productive trading career. As we navigate the complexities of the financial markets, let us also commit to prioritizing our health. The journey of a trader should not only be measured in financial gains but also in the quality of life lived.
Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment 📣
GOLD RISKY LONG|
✅GOLD will be retesting a support level of 2604$ soon
From where I am expecting a bullish reaction
With the price going up but we need
To wait for a reversal pattern to form
Before entering the trade, so that we
Get a higher success probability of the trade
LONG🚀
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NZD-CAD Swing Bearish Bias! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
NZD-CAD is making a
Bullish correction from the
Low but the pair is trading
In the downtrend so after
It hits the horizontal resistance
Of 0.8200 we will be expecting
A further move down
Sell!
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NVDA Topping PatternUnlike the previous call, I made in NVDA that was corrective.
This double-top pattern is signaling a reversal pattern.
From a trading perspective, this is a great risk/reward setup that is relatively simple. A CRACK! here will likely lead to at least the right side filling, with the potential deeper pullback (reversal)
If on the other hand, it pops above recent highs then no trade or an easy stop out.
As you all know I don't do targets, I think they are silly and only used to pretend one has such insight not only can they call the move but also a "target" too. Yeah well, I'll leave that to the "experts" ;)
Bulls don't be a dick for tick.
Shorts take some early profits to improve cost basis but let this one ride!
GMX Long Spot Trade (Accumulation Breakout)Market Context:
GMX is exhibiting signs of accumulation exit, with price action hinting at a potential breakout. A sustained move above $30, followed by a successful retest of this level as support, could confirm continuation toward higher targets.
Trade Setup:
Entry Zone: Around support at $30.00
Take Profit Targets:
First target: $40.00
Second target: $49.50
Third target: $70.00
Stop Loss: Daily close below $25.00
This trade capitalizes on the breakout potential and a confirmed support flip for a strong upward continuation. Keep an eye on volume to confirm breakout strength.
TIA Long Spot Trade (Reversal Potential) Market Context:
TIA has faced a significant downturn due to distribution, but it appears to have bottomed after breaking out of its trend line resistance. The price has reclaimed its bear market range and is consolidating above support, signaling potential for a strong rebound.
Trade Setup:
Entry Zone: Around $7.40 (support level)
Take Profit Targets:
First target: $8.50
Second target: $9.85
Stop Loss: Just below $6.70
This setup leverages the breakout confirmation and support retest for a calculated risk-to-reward opportunity. Monitor for sustained price action above the breakout level.
NZDJPY Trading Opportunity! BUY!
My dear friends,
NZDJPY looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 90.005 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Goal - 90.643
Recommended Stop Loss - 89.634
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
CHFJPY What Next? BUY!
My dear friends,
My technical analysis for CHFJPY is below:
The market is trading on 173.45 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 174.40
About Used Indicators:
A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
GOLD Technical Analysis! SELL!
My dear followers,
This is my opinion on the GOLD next move:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 2716.3
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clearshort signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Goal - 2668.8
About Used Indicators:
For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
EURGBP The Target Is UP! BUY
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for EURGBP below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 0.8307
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 0.8338
Safe Stop Loss - 0.8289
About Used Indicators:
The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
S&P 500 Technical Analysis Ascending Triangle vs Rising Wedge I've identified two potential patterns on the S&P 500 SP:SPX chart:
Ascending Triangle (blue trendlines): Higher lows and flat highs, with breakout potential above the flat top or a breakdown below the higher lows. Indicated by blue arrows.
Rising Wedge Developing (red trend lines and arrows): Higher highs and higher lows, with a potential bearish breakout below the lower trend line or a less common bullish breakout above the upper trend line. Red arrows highlight the touch points on the rising wedge pattern.
Pattern Rules:
For a valid pattern, the following rules apply:
Ascending Triangle:
At least two higher lows
Flat highs
Decreasing volume
Breakout above the flat top or breakdown below the higher lows
Rising Wedge:
At least three touch points on each trend line (I will use as few as 2)
Higher highs and higher lows
Decreasing volume
Breakout below the lower trend line or above the upper trend line (less common)
Quick Review for Beginners:
New to chart patterns? Here's a quick rundown:
Higher lows: A series of lows that are higher than the previous ones.
Flat highs: A series of highs that are roughly the same level.
Decreasing volume: The trading volume decreases as the pattern forms.
Breakout: When the price moves above or below the pattern's boundary.
Trend lines: Lines drawn to connect the highs or lows of a pattern.
Keep in mind that chart patterns are not a guarantee of future price movements, but rather a tool to help identify potential trends and trading opportunities.
What's the fate of EURUSD?market may likly push lower to try to form a lower low or a double bottom, whatever be the case, we can still make a 1:4 trade this week from this pair. This pair has being bearsh for over a month and may likely continue, but there may be a major pull back to the monthly fib zone. so watch out for that retracement and pay attention to taking out your short profits
Natural Gas: Analyzing Seasonal Trends and Supply PressuresIn the natural gas market, we observe a critical juncture that suggests a potential shift in pricing trends. Over the past decade, historical data has revealed a recurring seasonal pattern that may indicate the onset of a bearish phase during this particular time of year.
Currently, the market is approaching a significant supply zone, which could serve as a pivotal trigger for price corrections. This area has consistently tested traders' sentiments, and if the pressures of supply outstrip demand, it may catalyze a downward movement in prices.
Given these observations, positioning for a short scenario seems increasingly viable. As market participants weigh their options, it is essential to remain vigilant and analyze how these supply-demand dynamics will unfold in the coming weeks. Understanding the interplay between seasonal trends and market sentiment will be crucial as we navigate this potentially shifting landscape in the natural gas sector.
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Is GBP/USD Set for a Further Rally? Let's have a look.The GBP/USD pair made a robust recovery at the beginning of the week, showcasing strength against its major competitors. This bounce-back comes after a notable decline on Friday, triggered by disappointing economic data. Specifically, the UK Retail Sales contracted at a faster-than-anticipated rate in October, and the flash S&P Global/CIPS Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for November fell below the critical 50.0 mark for the first time since October 2023.
The primary factor contributing to the Pound Sterling's resurgence appears to be strong market sentiment regarding the Bank of England's (BoE) potential for a more measured approach to policy easing compared to other Western central banks. Notably, the currency is trading within a demand zone, suggesting the potential for upward movement. Additionally, the Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates that retail sentiment is leaning bearish; however, similar to the EUR/USD, the opening gap might be filled, which could lead to a further decline in prices.
A decline towards the 1.2400 level could present an attractive buying opportunity for those looking to acquire the Pound at a discount. Historical seasonality trends also indicate a likelihood for the GBP to appreciate in the near term. Nevertheless, I recommend waiting until Wednesday, following the release of the USD unemployment data, before making any trading decisions. Currently, my outlook remains bearish on the GBP/USD.
GBP/USD GAP
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