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AUDUSD: The foreign exchange market is quiet, the USD is stable Most Asian currencies remained weak on Wednesday, with the dollar hovering near a six-week high as markets awaited further signals on when the Federal Reserve would start cutting interest rates. The Australian dollar weakened by 0.1%, although January's PMI data showed improvement in manufacturing and services activity. The Australian dollar, which is often used as an indicator of overall Asian markets' risk appetite, is also trading near seven-week lows. The US dollar has stabilized near six-week highs as the economy continues to grow. Data, Fed meeting underway The dollar index and dollar index futures each fell 0.1% in Asian trade, after rising earlier to their highest since early December. The dollar got off to a strong start to 2024, with solid inflation and jobs data showing traders' expectations that a Fed rate cut was imminent have largely dissipated. That perception was further exacerbated by a series of hawkish comments from Fed officials last week. The focus now shifts to fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data scheduled for release on Thursday and data on the PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, scheduled for release on Friday. Signs of a recovery in economic growth and inflation would give the Fed more incentive to keep interest rates high for longer periods of time. The reading also came days before the Fed's first meeting in 2024, when the Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates at a 23-year high. However, the Fed is still expected to start cutting rates before the end of the year, and traders will be watching for any such signals from the meeting.
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
EUR/NZD LongEUR/NZD Long • If price pushes down to and ideally just below our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a subsequent impulse back up on the one hour chart followed by a tight two touch fifteen minute flag and then I'll filter the latter on the five minute chart and be looking to get long with either a risk entry within it if the flag is structured, or a reduced risk entry on the break of it if it's unstructured or I don't manage to secure a risk entry. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
Long
by StewySongs
GBPUSD: Sterling speculators are more focused on inflation than Traders in the pound market are betting on continued inflation due to a slowdown in retail sales as the Bank of England nears its next interest rate decision. The pound has recently strengthened against the euro for four consecutive weeks, and has strengthened against all G10 currencies this year except for the stronger US dollar. Investors have increased their bullish bets on the pound for the third consecutive week. This is reflected in an increase in net long positions in the pound, suggesting that the pound is likely to appreciate against the dollar. Net long positions increased by nearly $800 million, or 48%, to $2.24 billion, the biggest selloff in four months. This is in contrast to about $2.166 billion in short positions held by speculators just two months ago. The latest economic data paints a mixed picture. Wage growth slowed, inflation rose to a surprising 4.0% in December from 3.9% the previous month, and retail sales fell sharply. These factors are contributing to expectations that the BoE may be slower to cut interest rates than the Fed or the European Central Bank (ECB). Market expectations suggest there is a roughly 50% chance that the Bank of England will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in May, with a full rate cut expected in August. By contrast, traders expect the ECB to start cutting rates as early as April, and there is almost a 50% chance that the U.S. will cut rates in March. Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFG, said the BoE needed evidence that inflation risks were easing to give it confidence to start cutting interest rates to support UK growth. Weak retail sales have slightly reduced the attractiveness of the pound, but it remains the second-best performing G10 currency at the start of the year. Compared to other currencies, the pound has appreciated 4.7% against the Japanese yen and 3% against the Australian dollar so far this year. It also rose 2.8% against the Swiss franc, and Nomura analysts expect it to rise another 3%.
Short
by Chart_MasterPro
EURJPY: Yen strengthens ahead of Bank of Japan meeting; The markCurrency stability is a hot topic in financial markets today as investors prepare for meetings of major central banks in Japan and Europe. The Japanese yen registered a notable gain, trading at 147.74 yen against the dollar, as markets awaited the Bank of Japan's upcoming monetary policy meeting. The bank is expected to maintain negative interest rates, a stance that has gained further support following Japan's recent earthquake. The dollar index of the US dollar against a basket of major currencies was little changed at 103.24. Meanwhile, the euro fell slightly to trade at $1.0888, while the pound rose slightly to $1.27095. Investors are also adjusting their expectations for the U.S. Federal Reserve's next interest rate move. The interest rate cut was originally expected to occur in early March, but the forecast was pushed back to May due to strong U.S. economic indicators. This suggests that the Fed may take a more cautious approach to monetary policy changes, despite previous expectations for rate cuts. All eyes are also on the European Central Bank (ECB), which will discuss its own monetary policy on Thursday. Given the impact on global supply chains, particularly those that affect trade routes through the Red Sea, the ECB may have to balance the need to support economic growth with the pressures of external trade challenges. The turmoil has led to a reassessment of the timing of potential interest rate cuts by the ECB as it considers the impact of these issues on the broader economic situation.
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
USD/CHF Long, USD/JPY Long, AUD/CAD Short and GBP/JPY ShortUSD/CHF Short • If price pushes down to and ideally just below our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a subsequent impulse back up on the one hour chart followed by a tight two touch fifteen minute flag and then I'll filter the latter on the five minute chart and be looking to get long with either a risk entry within it if the flag is structured, or a reduced risk entry on the break of it if it's unstructured or I don't manage to secure a risk entry. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. USD/JPY Long • If price pushes down to and ideally just below our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a subsequent impulse back up on the one hour chart followed by a tight two touch fifteen minute flag and then I'll filter the latter on the five minute chart and be looking to get long with either a risk entry within it if the flag is structured, or a reduced risk entry on the break of it if it's unstructured or I don't manage to secure a risk entry. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. AUD/CAD Short • If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a subsequent impulse back down on the one hour chart followed by a tight two touch fifteen minute flag and then I'll filter the latter on the five minute chart and be looking to get short with either a risk entry within it if the flag is structured, or a reduced risk entry on the break of it if it's unstructured or I don't manage to secure a risk entry. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. GBP/JPY Short • If price pushes up above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a subsequent impulse back down on the one hour chart followed by a tight two touch fifteen minute flag and then I'll filter the latter on the five minute chart and be looking to get short with either a risk entry within it if the flag is structured, or a reduced risk entry on the break of it if it's unstructured or I don't manage to secure a risk entry. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
by StewySongs
1
EURUSD: Euro outlook next weekNext week, the ECB's monetary policy meeting will be held on Thursday, and important economic indicators from Germany will also be announced, so the euro may fluctuate significantly. This week, a number of central bank officials spoke out against overly optimistic markets about a rate cut in 2024. Next Thursday's ECB Governing Council meeting is likely to be too early for ECB President Christine Lagarde to start setting a concrete schedule for interest rates, and markets will wait until the next Governing Council meeting on May 7 for more information. would have to. Next week will see the release of the German and European PMI reports, the IFO annual report and the German Consumer Confidence Index. This data should be closely monitored as the German economy remains weak. EUR/USD broke out of a channel pattern on Tuesday and is currently trading below the 200-day SMA of 1.0850. The current support level for this pair is 1.0787, but resistance areas at 1.0950 and 1.1000 are also observed.
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
EUR/USD Short, USD/JPY Long and GBP/JPY ShortEUR/USD Short • If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a subsequent impulse back down on the one hour chart followed by a tight two touch fifteen minute flag and then I'll filter the latter on the five minute chart and be looking to get short with either a risk entry within it if the flag is structured, or a reduced risk entry on the break of it if it's unstructured or I don't manage to secure a risk entry. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. USD/JPY Long • If price pushes down to and ideally just below our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a subsequent impulse back up on the one hour chart followed by a tight two touch fifteen minute flag and then I'll filter the latter on the five minute chart and be looking to get long with either a risk entry within it if the flag is structured, or a reduced risk entry on the break of it if it's unstructured or I don't manage to secure a risk entry. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. GBP/JPY Short • If price pushes up above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a subsequent impulse back down on the one hour chart followed by a tight two touch fifteen minute flag and then I'll filter the latter on the five minute chart and be looking to get short with either a risk entry within it if the flag is structured, or a reduced risk entry on the break of it if it's unstructured or I don't manage to secure a risk entry. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
by StewySongs
GBPJPY: Asian foreign exchange markets fell, the USD was strongeMost Asian currencies were mildly volatile on Friday but headed for weekly losses, while the dollar hovered near a one-month high amid growing doubts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates early this year. The Japanese Yen was hit the hardest due to concerns about higher interest rates for longer and was also the worst performing currency in Asia this week. The yen fell 0.1% on Friday and is forecast to fall 2.3% this week. Friday's data showed Japan's consumer price index (CPI) inflation fell to its lowest since June 2022 in December, prompting the Bank of Japan to maintain much of its ultra-extreme policy. his moderation at {{ecl -165||next week's meeting}}.
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
AUDUSD: The dollar is on track for another weekly gain amid econThe dollar has trended higher for the second consecutive week, supported by a strong domestic economy and the central bank's cautious stance on interest rate cuts. The dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of six major rivals, rose 0.9% this week to 103.4. The dollar has appreciated about 5% against the yen this year, and the exchange rate currently stands at 148.12 yen. Risk sentiment-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars rose 1.7% and 2%, respectively, and are poised for their biggest weekly gains since November and June. ,beginning%. The probability that the US will cut interest rates in March has decreased, with market odds falling to 57% from 75% the previous week. The change in expectations follows strong U.S. jobs data, with jobless claims at their lowest level in about a year and a half, putting pressure on the market to cut back. Interest fee. The two-year Treasury yield, which reflects expectations for short-term interest rates, rose 22 basis points to 4.35%.
Short
by Chart_MasterPro
EUR/USD ShortEUR/USD Short • If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a subsequent impulse back down on the one hour chart followed by a tight two touch fifteen minute flag and then I'll filter the latter on the five minute chart and be looking to get short with either a risk entry within it if the flag is structured, or a reduced risk entry on the break of it if it's unstructured or I don't manage to secure a risk entry. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
Short
by StewySongs
1
EURUSD: EUR/USD broke through an important technical milestone iThe dollar remains generally in good shape. EUR/USD tested the 200-day moving average during yesterday's trading session before rising to the 1.0890 level. Looking at the short-term trend, sellers are in control with prices still not coming close to testing the 100 hour moving average at 1.0916. The downtrend will still be maintained for now. As rising Treasury yields help strengthen the dollar, the euro is also receiving support from the ECB's outlook review. Going into this year, traders were convinced of the first rate cut in April but that possibility is now being priced at approximately 90%. This comes after opposition from ECB policymakers. That means that while April is still on the table, it is likely that June or July would be a more reasonable option to satisfy the central bank's board of governors. Therefore, if traders lower their pricing on an interest rate cut in April, it will support the Euro at a balanced level. Currently, sellers are still willing to try to maintain the bearish trend.
Short
by Chart_MasterPro
GBPUSD: The dollar hit a one-month high amid interest rate cut sThe US dollar rose to a one-month high on Wednesday on shifting market expectations for interest rate cuts and weak economic data from China. The dollar index, which measures the dollar's value against a basket of currencies, rose to 103.58, its highest since December 13th. This increase follows Tuesday's 0.67% rise. The dollar's rise was fueled in part by comments from U.S. Federal Reserve official Christopher Waller. He noted that the U.S. is close to the Fed's 2% inflation target, but advised against cutting rates early until he is confident that the decline in inflation is sustainable. Following Waller's comments, the probability of a rate cut in March, as measured by CME's FedWatch tool, fell from 75% to about 60%. At the same time, yields on U.S. government bonds rose. In contrast to other currencies, the pound rose 0.1% against the dollar to $1.2646, supported by rising UK inflation data. This has fueled expectations that the Bank of England may cut interest rates more slowly than other central banks.
Short
by Chart_MasterPro
GOLD : Gold has not yet successfully tested support at $2,021After testing the 2021 support zone, gold increased slightly and then returned to the 2021 zone again. The 10-year US government bond yield has now increased above the psychological level of 4.0%, which has helped the US dollar increase sharply compared to most other currencies. This also caused a strong impact on XAU/USD as the gold price fell more than 1.25% in just one day. In addition, the USD's upward momentum was also reinforced by the market's reassessment of the interest rate outlook after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that policymakers will not rush to cut interest rates until there is a clear signs that inflation can be maintained at a low level. In addition, with the US economy still maintaining a good level, the Fed may not loosen monetary policy significantly this year. Gold fell sharply on Tuesday, and is now approaching the 50-day SMA around $2,010. If buyers fail to hold this support, the bearish momentum will increase and bring the price back to the $1,990 threshold, and beyond to $1,975. Conversely, if the buyers return and create a bullish reversal, the first resistance will be at the $2,045-2,050 zone. The price may have difficulty overcoming this resistance zone. However, if buyers succeed in overcoming resistance, it will open up the potential for a rally to the December peak at $2,085.
TVC:GOLDLong
by NicoTradingMaster
NZD/CAD LongNZD/CAD Long • If price impulses up above our most recent two lows on the one hour chart and a subsequent three touch tight fifteen minute flag forms, then I'll filter the latter on the five minute chart and be looking to get long with either a risk entry within it if the flag is structured, or a reduced risk entry on the break of it if it's unstructured or I don't manage to secure a risk entry. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
Long
by StewySongs
AUDUSD: Asian foreign exchange dropped, USD recovered waiting foMost Asian currencies fell on Tuesday, while the dollar rose as traders largely remained risk-averse ahead of further signals on when the Federal Reserve may begin cutting interest rates. The dollar index and dollar index futures rose 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively, during the Asian session on Tuesday. The dollar index is also trading at a small premium to futures, suggesting short-term demand for the greenback is growing. Traders are now awaiting further signals on the Fed and the US economy, with Fed Governor Christopher Waller due to speak later on Tuesday. On Wednesday, US retail sales and industrial production figures are expected to provide more clues on the world's largest economy, with any signs of cooling allowing for more bets on growth. cut interest rates soon. However, the market appears to have moderated bets that the Fed will begin cutting interest rates as soon as March 2024, according to Fed policy tracker CME
Short
by Chart_MasterPro
2
USD/JPY ShortUSD/JPY Short • If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a subsequent impulse back down on the one hour chart followed by a tight two touch fifteen minute flag and then I'll filter the latter on the five minute chart and be looking to get short with either a risk entry within it if the flag is structured, or a reduced risk entry on the break of it if it's unstructured or I don't manage to secure a risk entry. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
Short
by StewySongs
GBPUSD: Dollar slides lower after CPI data; Sterling is supporteThe dollar steadied in early European trade on Friday as investors focused on mixed U.S. consumer inflation data and the potential impact of the FBI's interest rate cut. Future Federal Reserve System. As of 4:25 p.m. ET (9:25 p.m. Japan time), the dollar index against a basket of six other currencies was trading steady at 102.022, down from Thursday's high of 102.76 (a five-month low). Although it has fallen from a certain point of 100.61, it is still above it. U.S. consumer prices rose 0.3% in December, according to data released Thursday. The annual rate of increase was 3.4%, exceeding expectations of 0.2% and 3.2% increases, respectively. increase. However, the dollar received little support from this, as the "core" CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, fell again, suggesting underlying inflation remained subdued. Federal Reserve officials have sought to downplay the possibility of early rate cuts, with Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester saying Thursday that the latest CPI numbers indicate it may be too early for the central bank to cut rates. Major interest rate cuts in March. But most traders still expect the Fed to start cutting rates as early as March. "A rate cut in March is still priced in by more than 60%, and we still see near-term vulnerability in risk assets from this move," ING analysts said in a note. The new decision is too restrictive. ” All eyes are now on the US producer price index, which will be released in late trading, with the index expected to rise 0.1% in December, bringing the annual rate of increase to just 1.3%. In Europe, the pound/dollar pair rose 0.1% to 1.2775 after data released on Friday showed the British economy grew slightly more than expected in November. The country's GDP rose 0.3% this month, beating expectations for a 0.2% increase.
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
EURJPY: Latest information on market trends in the Asian session There wasn't much news of note on the day, except for some news regarding the energy market. Qatar has reportedly suspended LNG transport through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait (Suez Canal). Houthis fire cruise missile at US Navy ship Oil prices have risen, but not by a large amount Political news: William Lai was elected president of Taiwan in Saturday's election, despite the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) losing a majority of seats in parliament. Senate Democratic Leader Schumer said Congressional leadership approved the temporary funding measure. Forex market: The People's Bank of China this month kept its medium-term financing (MLF) interest rate unchanged at 2.5%, despite widespread (but conflicting) expectations that it would cut it by 10 basis points. . This comes despite China's continued deflation and reflects the People's Bank of China's concerns that a weaker yuan could lead to capital outflows. The dollar/yen exchange rate rose during the session, weighing on the yen as the two-year Japanese government bond yield fell below zero. The US dollar has weakened against the euro, pound and Canadian dollar. The Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar underperformed. Offshore yuan gains during session
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
AUDUSD: Asian foreign exchange markets fall, USD rises ahead of The Australian dollar was among the few exceptions on the day, rising 0.3% as data showed CPI inflation eased in November, but remained well above the Reserve Bank's 3% target of 2%. annual. Core inflation also remains high amid high food and service prices. The dollar index and dollar index futures were mildly mixed during the Asian session on Wednesday, after seeing a sharp increase in overnight trading. The main focus remains on the upcoming US CPI data is expected to show a slight increase in inflation in December. But difficult inflation, along with recent signs of strength in the labor market, gives the Fed more room to keep interest rates higher for longer periods of time. While the central bank is expected to cut interest rates this year, the market is increasingly skeptical about whether a rate cut will come as soon as March 2024. Fed officials also resisted betting on an early rate cut, as inflation is expected to remain well above the Fed's 2% annual target in the near term.
Short
by Chart_MasterPro
USD/CAD Short, EUR/AUD Short, AUD/USD Long and USD/JPY ShortUSD/CAD Short • If price corrects and a tight flag forms, then I'll filter the latter on the fifteen minute chart and be looking to get short with either a risk entry within it if the flag is structured, or a reduced risk entry on the break of it if it's unstructured or I don't manage to secure a risk entry. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. EUR/AUD Short • If price corrects and a tight flag forms, then I'll filter the latter on the fifteen minute chart and be looking to get short with either a risk entry within it if the flag is structured, or a reduced risk entry on the break of it if it's unstructured or I don't manage to secure a risk entry. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. AUD/USD Long • If price corrects and a tight flag forms, then I'll filter the latter on the fifteen minute chart and be looking to get long with either a risk entry within it if the flag is structured, or a reduced risk entry on the break of it if it's unstructured or I don't manage to secure a risk entry. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. USD/JPY Short • If price corrects and a two touch tight flag forms with a three touch structural approach, then I'll filter it on the fifteen minute chart and be looking to get short with a risk entry within it. • If price corrects and a three touch larger one hour structure forms, then I'll filter it on the fifteen minute chart and be looking to get short with a risk entry within it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
by StewySongs
USDJPY: The Japanese Yen decreased because the market predicted The Japanese yen is the worst among Asian currencies through 2024, extending its decline from the previous year as traders grow more confident that the Bank of Japan will delay policy changes were extremely moderate. Reconstruction and stimulus measures following the devastating earthquake in central Japan are expected to offset any notion of BOJ policy tightening, at least in the near term. Such a scenario points to increased pressure on the yen, especially from the wide gap between domestic and international lending rates. Japan's interest rates have remained extremely low for nearly eight years. Weak data on inflation and weak wage growth also suggested less pressure on the BOJ to change its ultra-dovish course. Broader Asian currencies were trending lower, as doubts about an early Fed rate cut kept traders largely biased against the dollar.
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
CHF/JPY Short, USD/CAD Short, AUD/USD Long and USD/JPY ShortCHF/JPY Short • If price impulses down below our area of value and a subsequent tight flag forms, then I'll filter the latter on the fifteen minute chart and be looking to get short with either a risk entry within it if the flag is structured, or a reduced risk entry on the break of it if it's unstructured or I don't manage to secure a risk entry. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. USD/CAD Short • If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a subsequent impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll filter the latter on the fifteen minute chart and be looking to get short with either a risk entry within it if the flag is structured, or a reduced risk entry on the break of it if it's unstructured or I don't manage to secure a risk entry. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. AUD/USD Long • If price pushes down to and ideally just below our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a subsequent impulse back up above our most recent lows followed by a tight flag and then I'll filter the latter on the fifteen minute chart and be looking to get long with either a risk entry within it if the flag is structured, or a reduced risk entry on the break of it if it's unstructured or I don't manage to secure a risk entry. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. USD/JPY Short • If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a subsequent impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll filter the latter on the fifteen minute chart and be looking to get short with either a risk entry within it if the flag is structured, or a reduced risk entry on the break of it if it's unstructured or I don't manage to secure a risk entry. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
by StewySongs