GBP/CHF Long and GBP/USD ShortGBP/CHF Long
• If price pushes down to and ideally just below our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back up followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
GBP/USD Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
Tradingforex
USDJPY: Comments on USDJPY on November 14Yomiru: Japan plans to reduce taxes for businesses that increase wages
A source from the Yomiuri website said that the Japanese Government is considering tax reductions for companies that increase wages by 8%.
The Japanese government wants to encourage wage increases as part of its fight to promote sustained and stable inflation.
If the wage increase is widely applied, it will create a premise for the BoJ's arguments around gradually reducing the level of monetary policy easing, thereby supporting JPY.
USD exchange rate today November 13: Slightly decreased in the Investors currently believe there is a 91% likelihood the Fed will maintain current interest rates.
The USD Index closed at 105,660 on the global market at 6:32 a.m. Vietnam time on November 13, down 0.02%.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) keeps its "hawkish" approach, there are no new developments in Middle East tensions, and the USD keeps becoming stronger.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Conference on Thursday helped the market realize that the Fed is still committed to tightening monetary policy for an extended period of time.
Despite the fact that inflation has decreased from its 40-year peak last year, Mr. Powell cautioned that the Fed still has work to do. Additionally, he stated that the Fed is not "confident" that it has sufficiently controlled inflation to reverse the
GBPCADGBPCAD has shown a clear weakness in bullish trend times making a slowed volume push and has shown clear bearish volume shorts put in by traders. I believe the trend will be now reversed and only clear a higher low for GBPCAD. Please use proper risk management when entering the trade.
GBPCAD
Sell/Short
Entry: 1.69312
Stop Loss: 1.70333
Target:
TP: 1.61530
DAY TRADE/SWING TRADE
Risk: 2-5% of Capital
DXY D1 - Short SignalDXY D1
This week, our perspective on the USD remains consistent with last week's analysis. The dollar demonstrated a bullish W1 close, while remaining firmly within the confines of the breakout and reversal structure on the lower timeframes (LTF).
The 106 resistance level continues to stand its ground, and we maintain an optimistic outlook for USD pairs this week, which includes XAUUSD. Anticipating further upside potential in the days ahead.
Fed Chairman's hawkish comments pushed world gold down more thanAs demand for safe haven assets declined, gold prices dropped more than 1% on Friday, marking two weeks of price losses in a row. Meanwhile, the "hawkish" approach taken by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell puts more pressure on precious metals. Palladium is still falling below $1,000 USD/oz, the lowest level in five years.
The spot price of gold fell 1.1% to $1,936.09 USD/oz. Spot gold prices fell 2.8% overall last week, which was the biggest drop in six weeks.
In the US, gold futures contracts dropped 1.6% to $1,937.70 USD/oz.
According to Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst of Kitco Metals, "gold will continue to move sideways and bearish in the short term unless we see an escalation of geopolitical events and weak economic reports." weakening in the US or if the Fed indicates that it is
USD/JPY Short, AUD/NZD Short and USD/CHF ShortUSD/JPY Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
AUD/NZD Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value and it does so structurally, then I'll be looking to get short with a risk entry either after a phase line break on either the one hour or the fifteen minute chart, or after a one hour or a fifteen minute rejection from it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
USD/CHF Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
JPMorgan: In the future, CHF might be "more expensive"JPMorgan: In the future, CHF might be "more expensive"
Although there are obstacles that could hinder the franc's ascent, they don't seem to be halting it as of now. Furthermore, even if the currency has witnessed the largest short-selling bets in the past two years as the surge continues, any increases in Middle East tensions or central bank action might drive up the price of the currency.
Following the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel, Andreas Koenig, head of global currency management at Amundi, changed his position on the franc from negative to neutral, saying that "it would be a mistake to undervalue it in the current situation."
"It was not our intention to escalate the ongoing confrontation
USD/CHF ShortUSD/CHF Short
• If price impulses down below our area of value, it does so in a convincing manner and a subsequent tight one hour flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
GBPUSD: Mixed US stock index futures, FTSE 100 static ahead of in Thursday, November 9, 2023, the FTSE 100 was flat and US stock index futures were mixed in the financial markets. The UK's third quarter GDP data is about to be released, and this will likely have an impact on the Bank of England's (BoE) December monetary policy. Swati Dhingra is thinking about lowering interest rates in the event that growth statistics fall short.
The third quarter of UK economic growth was hindered by a number of issues, including declining consumer spending, weak PMIs for services, a lagging market for housing, and declining employment. Despite declining US Treasury yields, this circumstance has caused the GBP/USD pair to stabilize near 1.2300 following three days of negative closing.
The same day, prospective USD influencers came into focus for the market. Among them is the US Department
USDJPY: Asian foreign exchange market calms down, US dollar recoMost Asian currencies fluctuated in a narrow range on Wednesday, but the dollar pared recent gains after some Federal Reserve officials warned against betting the central bank would stop raising interest rates. Expanded.
This will focus attention on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech as markets look for further signals on U.S. monetary policy.
Sentiment towards Asian markets remains subdued as traders remain nervous about hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve. Signs of continued weakness in China's economy also have traders wary of regional markets.
The Japanese yen fell 0.1%, remaining above 150 yen to the dollar, with dovish signals from the Bank of Japan and a strong dollar providing little support. The weak currency has traders bracing for possible foreign exchange market intervention by the Japanese government aimed at strengthening the yen. Japan's cabinet issued a series of verbal warnings against such moves in October.
SUGAR/USD Short and GBP/USD ShortSUGAR/USD Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
GBP/USD Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
XAUUSD: Fed Chairman: No signs of interest rate cuts in the shorPatrick Harker, President of the Philadelphia Fed, stated:
At the most recent FOMC meeting, supported a steady interest rate approach.There are no immediate plans by the Fed to lower interest rates, so they will remain high for longer.It's time to evaluate the effects of previous interest rate rises.Depending on the statistics, the Fed may decide to raise or maintain interest rates in the future.A better equilibrium is being reached in the labor market.In 2024, the unemployment rate will increase to 4.5% before declining.Assured of a gentle landing
Though not yet in a recession, growth may slow
After steadily declining to 3% in 2024, inflation drops to 2%.
BTCUSD: November 9 Technical Analysis of BTCThe rise in Bitcoin (BTC) has paused at $36,000, but bulls are not in a hurry to cash in. The number of long-term holders (addresses holding Bitcoin for at least 155 days) is close to an all-time high, while the number of short-term holders (addresses holding coins for less than 155 days) is currently at an all-time low, according to Glassnode analysis, indicating that the supply of Bitcoin is getting tighter.
Although the long term appears promising, there may be difficulties in the near future. The open interest in the Bitcoin futures market has increased significantly, surpassing $16 billion as of this writing, based on statistics from CoinGlass. Contributor J.A. Maartunn of the on-chain analytics tool CryptoQuant emphasized on
While the price of Bitcoin could drop
SUGAR/USD Short and GBP/USD ShortSUGAR/USD Short
• If price corrects and a tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
GBP/USD Short
• If price corrects and a tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
USDCHF: Fed officials want to continue assessing the yield Several hawkish Fed policymakers spoke on Tuesday, saying that the tightening of financial conditions since July (10-year Treasury yields have risen more than 100 basis points) is likely to affect the economy, although it will take some time to become apparent. It was suggested that it may have a debilitating effect. Is this sustainable?
"We've seen some encouraging progress on inflation, but it remains too high," Dallas Fed President Laurie Logan said at a news conference in Kansas City. The key question for me is whether the fiscal situation we find ourselves in is restrictive enough to raise inflation to 2% in a timely and sustainable manner. ”
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said in a speech in St. Louis that the rate hike was a "shock" to the bond market, but another board member, Michelle Bowman, told the Ohio Bankers Federation that officials said it was too early to know the full story. The effects of this "shock".
Officials last week kept interest rates unchanged for two consecutive days at 5.25-5.5%, the highest level in 22 years. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has suggested that there is no longer a need to raise interest rates, arguing that rising yields will cool the economy.
Since then, yields have fallen slightly as investors remain optimistic that the Fed is done tightening.
USDCAD is still continuing its upward momentumSpeaking on Tuesday, a number of hardline Fed members hinted that the economy may be weaker as a result of the tightening of financial conditions since July, which has seen a rise in 10-year Treasury yields of more than 100 basis points. However, it will take more time to determine if this effect is sustained.
"Inflation has decreased somewhat, but it is still too high," Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan stated at a Kansas City conference. The fundamental query, in my opinion, is whether the current fiscal constraints are stringent enough to quickly and sustainably raise inflation to 2%.
In a speech in St. Louis, Fed board of governors member Christopher Waller referred to the rate move as a “shock” to the bond market, while Michelle Bowman, another
EURUSD: Evolution and movement trend of EURThe euro lost value compared to the USD today as the dollar had a significant increase. Germany released some disappointing data. Following the RBA's announcement that this would be the final increase in interest rates, the value of the Australian dollar plummeted dramatically.
Germany's industrial production weakened last month, according to data, which had an indirect negative impact on the euro.
Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Fed, will talk on Wednesday and Thursday. Following the Fed policy meeting last week, the markets will now be watching to see if he sticks to his more accommodating position.
The euro lost value compared to the USD today as the dollar had a significant increase. Germany released some disappointing data. Following the RBA's announcement that this would be the final increase in interest rates, the value of the Australian dollar plummeted dramatically.
Germany's industrial production weakened last month, according to data, which had an indirect negative impact on the euro.
Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Fed, will talk on Wednesday and Thursday. Following the Fed policy meeting last week, the markets will now be watching to see if he sticks to his more accommodating position.
XAUUSD: Gold remains around the bottom of the month, waiting forGold prices continued to fall, coming under selling pressure for the second day in a row and falling almost to this month's low in European trading.
Gold tested the ascending channel support line at $1,978 on Monday. Sellers are now in the ascendancy again and are trying to confirm the bearish triangle pattern. A close below this trend line confirms the pattern and sets the next target at $1,970.
To further break this support, sellers are targeting the 21-day moving average of $1,966, then $1,963, and then $1,950.
GBP/USD Short and EUR/USD ShortGBP/USD Short
• If price corrects and a tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
EUR/USD Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
XAUUSD: President of the Minneapolis Fed Kashkari does notAccording to Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, the Fed has not finished raising interest rates.
The Fed will not be able to return to its 2% inflation target by tightening in a timely manner. In addition, worries about inflation "rising again" exist. It appears that inflation may "stable at above 2% and that makes me very concerned," according to certain salary and pricing data.
To support the conclusion regarding the future direction of interest rates, more evidence is required. "I'm not prepared to declare that interest rate increases are over."
SUGAR/USD Short, GBP/CHF Long, GBP/USD Short and EUR/USD ShortSUGAR/USD Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
GBP/CHF Long
• If price pushes down to and ideally just below our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back up followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
GBP/USD Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
EUR/USD Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
USDCAD: Amidst a slowdown in interest rate increases, US marketsU.S. stocks are on track to post their biggest weekly gain this year as investors express optimism that U.S. interest rate hikes will be halted. This also led to higher bond prices and a weaker dollar. The focus now shifts to the US jobs report, which will be released later today.
The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates on hold on Wednesday, combined with Chairman Jerome Powell's assertion that risks to the interest rate outlook are balanced, led to a rise in bond yields. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell more than 20 basis points in two sessions.