WTICO/USD ShortWTICO/USD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If 2 touch 15 min continuation, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
Tradingforex
EURUSD: The USD fell against the euro awaiting CPI dataThe US greenback fell to a one-month low in opposition to the euro today, as buyers predicted the discharge of a key US inflation record that might affect US coverage decisions. Federal Reserve. The euro rose barely 0.03% to 1.0823 USD at some stage in Asian buying and selling hours, at one factor attaining 1.0828 USD, a stage now no longer visible given that April 10.
The US greenback index, which compares the greenback in opposition to a basket of six important currencies with a widespread emphasis at the euro, fell 0.11% to 104.94. Earlier, it touched a low of 104.92, its lowest in per week and a half.
At the identical time, US Treasury yields fell, with the benchmark long-time period yield falling to 4.4414%, persevering with its in a single day decline of 3.five foundation points.
WTICO/USD Short and SOYBN/USD ShortWTICO/USD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If 2 touch 15 min continuation, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
SOYBN/USD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If 2 touch 15 min continuation, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
The Fed will likely keep interest rates higher for longer1. Schmid of the Fed knows interest rates will likely stay high for a while.
2. Mester of Fed said it was too early to conclude that a re-detection was likely.
3. US data PPI is inconsistent.
4. Fed's Powell says the Fed will likely keep interest rates higher for longer.
5. ECB's Wunsch found no need to cut rates after the first cut in June.
The US April PPI published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics rose 2.2% from a year ago, a new high since April 2023, slightly higher than the previous 2.1%. It rose 0.5% from a month ago, beating expectations of 0.3% and the previous revised figure of -0.1%. Core PPI rose 2.4% year-on-year, slightly above expectations of 2.3%, and rose 0.5% month-over-month, exceeding 0.2% and expectations Previously it was 0.2%.
This data surpasses expectations, showing that the rate of hard emission appears to be getting stiffer. However, the actual performance of this report may not be as shocking as the downwardly revised March data.
AUDUSD: AUDUSD analysis todayUBS, a Swiss bank, stated in a May thirteen report: "Historically, May has been a superb month for the greenback. Our seasonal indicator indicates that call for for USD normally will increase in overdue April and peaking in mid-May, with the Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) and New Zealand Dollar (NZD) normally maximum affected."
UBS added: "More mainly to the overseas exchange (FX) marketplace, that is additionally a signal that the marketplace can also additionally were preserving the USD lengthy for superb costs and as a shielding hedge. This prevents chance sell-offs in desire of the greenback as visible in preceding periods, while the greenback acted as extra of a supply of chance."
GBPUSD: The US dollar usually appreciates in May, but this year UBS, a Swiss bank, stated in a May thirteen report: "Historically, May has been a tremendous month for the greenback. Our seasonal indicator indicates that call for for USD commonly will increase in overdue April and peaking in mid-May, with the Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) and New Zealand Dollar (NZD) commonly maximum affected."
However, UBS says that the greenback has now no longer proven an awful lot seasonal volatility so far, that is constant with the inventory market`s cutting-edge lack of "May selling" tendencies.
EUR/NZD ShortEUR/NZD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If 2 touch 5 min continuation, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If 2 touch 15 min continuation, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
USDJPY: The Japanese yen was little changedThe Japanese yen turned into little changed
The Japanese yen turned into mildly unstable on Monday, with USDJPY soaring simply under 156.
The recognition stays on any capability authorities intervention to assist the currency, after at the least instances of intervention in early May. The authorities is stated to have stepped in to deliver down the USDJPY charge from highs maximum in 34 years over one hundred sixty.
While one hundred sixty is taken into consideration the restrict for the authorities, analysts warn that intervention should nonetheless show up earlier than that.
EUR/NZD ShortEUR/NZD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If 2 touch 5 min continuation, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If 2 touch 15 min continuation, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
THE KOG REPORTTHE KOG REPORT:
In last week’s KOG Report, we said if support held after the open we felt we would get a push to the upside into the order region and if the market held the region we felt an opportunity to short the market was available. That short trade worked well and after partials were taken it was protected. During the week we suggested traders trade caution and we would be looking to target that order region again on the long trade. Again, that trade worked well for us giving a fantastic pip capture half way through the week. We than said we would protect all trades as a break above that order region will then give traders the opportunity to long the market into the 2370-75 region where we would then likely see a reaction in price.
Both these moves presented themselves, although the long wasn’t taken due to it being early session, the short at the end of the week was identified.
The pip capture on gold was immense, not to mention the numerous other pairs we trade and analyse in Camelot.
So, what can we expect in the week ahead?
This week we’ll keep it simple, we’re looking for the market to open and hold these resistance levels so we can continue with a move back down into the order region to start with. So we have the resistance levels of 2360 and above that 2365, which if held could present an opportunity to short the market back down into the order region of 2350-55 with extension into 2345 which is where we’re expecting a temporary bounce in price. We need to be careful here as if this level is held during the early part of the week, we could see a complete correction of the move from Friday back into the 2343-35 region before any opportunity to swing low and then take the long trade back upside which we will monitor.
The levels are on the chart as is the illustration, we’ll update as we always do during the week. Please note, it’s another big week this week funds wise and with the geopolitical cloud above us expect more extreme swings and whipsawing price action. Your SL is your friend, it’s the difference between you having an account to trade or not having one!
Short report this week team so we'll keep it provisional for now.
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
XAUUSD: Technical analysis of XAUUSD todayThe dollar steadied on Friday after losing ground in the previous session on weak jobs data, while sterling edged up following stronger-than-expected growth figures.
At 04:10 ET (08:10 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, was trading just higher at 105.115.
The USD is on track for small gains this week
The USD steadied on Friday and is on course to gain slightly this week after falling on Thursday after data released showing a larger-than-expected gain in {ecl-294||topic data unemployment benefits request}} weekly.
This evidence of a cooling US labor market has bolstered some expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in September.
GBPJPY: The USD stabilized at the end of the week, the British PThe greenback steadied on Friday after dropping floor withinside the preceding consultation on susceptible jobs records, whilst sterling edged up following stronger-than-anticipated boom figures.
At 04:10 ET (08:10 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar towards a basket of six different currencies, changed into buying and selling simply better at 105.115.
The USD is heading in the right direction for small profits this week
The USD steadied on Friday and is on route to advantage barely this week after falling on Thursday after records launched displaying a larger-than-anticipated advantage in subject matter records unemployment blessings request}} weekly.
This proof of a cooling US hard work marketplace has strengthened a few expectancies that the Federal Reserve will start slicing hobby costs in September.
Still, hard inflation stays the Fed`s foremost factor of contention, with a chain of officers caution of such remarks this week which have boosted the greenback this week.
San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly stated Thursday that there is "considerable" uncertainty approximately in which U.S. inflation will head withinside the coming months.
She added: “In a state of affairs in which inflation stays at... levels, with out in addition development being made, it isn't always suitable to begin adjusting costs until we see a slowdown withinside the hard work marketplace ”.
EUR/GBP Short and EUR/USD ShortEUR/GBP Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of interest.
• If 2 touch 15 min continuation, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
EUR/USD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• If 3 touch 15 min continuation, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
USD heavily influenced by Fed rate expectationsWhen assessing that prospect, there are worse market indicators to monitor than the front-end of the US bond curve. As this chart shows, the daily correlation between the US dollar index and US two-year bond yields over the past quarter stands at 0.89, implying the dollar usually follows movements at the front-end of the US curve.
Gold looks great on he charts, continuing to consolidate above former record highs within a broader uptrend. With RSI breaking its downtrend and MACD looking like it may soon crossover from below, momentum looks to be shifting higher once again. Having tried and failed on multiple occasions to break below $2285 in May, that would provide a decent entry level for longs, should the price return there. A stop could be placed below the level for protection.
Alternatively, should the price get a foothold above $2355.10, that too would be a decent entry level, allowing for a stop to be placed below targeting a retest of the 2024 high above $2430.Right now, the jury is out when it comes to whether we’re witnessing a turning point for the big dollar with futures remaining close to key horizontal resistance with the 50 and 200-day moving averages sitting just above. This zone looms as important when it comes to directional risks for the dollar and short-end rates, managing to repel an attempted break higher last Friday following the release of softer-than-expected payrolls and ISM services PMI data.
GOLD: Gold price forecast
By around September, the Fed may reduce interest rates. A declining USD will pull gold prices up.
Gold is also supported by inflation and escalating prices in many countries around the world. Asian and European countries are struggling to control their currencies from plunging.
Many experts also mentioned the possibility of inflation in some countries. If this happens, gold will continue to be an important storm shelter.
EURJPY: Asian foreign exchange decline, dollar stable; The Yen cJapanese Yen weakened after intervention, USDJPY increased
Markets are now looking for more information on Japan's inflation and wage growth to gauge whether the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates further this year, which is expected to bring some relief for the Japanese currency.
GBP/USD Short, EUR/GBP Short and EUR/USD ShortGBP/USD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• If 3 touch 1H continuation or 2 touch 1H continuation with 3 touch structural approach, 15 min risk entry within it.
EUR/GBP Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If 2 touch 15 min continuation, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
EUR/USD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• 1H impulse down below area of interest.
• If 2 touch 5 min continuation, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If 2 touch 15 min continuation, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
XAUUSD prices may decrease in the short termWorld gold spot price is around 2,306.4 USD/ounce, up 5.4 USD/ounce compared to last week. Gold futures price in June 2024 on the Comex New York floor is at 2,304.7 USD/ounce.
Last week, the world gold price in the first session of the week traded at 2,335 USD/ounce. After that, the gold price could not be kept above 2,340 USD and began to decline, the lowest level of the week was below 2,283 USD.
World gold price increased again above 2,325 USD/ounce after the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced information on the interest adjustment roadmap. However, gold prices could not keep their upward momentum and weakened at the end of the week.
The latest weekly survey by Kitco News shows that experts forecast extreme value in terms of gold outlook development in the short term. Most retail traders expect gold prices to fall or move sideways. According to a Wall Street survey, 40% believe that gold prices will continue to move sideways, and 33% predict they will decrease.
This week, the market is interested in notable economic information such as the US 10-term bond fight, preliminary consumer sentiment report from the University of Michigan,...
XAUUSD: Gold price forecastGold price forecast
Chantell Schieven, Head of Research at Capitalight Research, said that the gold market is starting to enter a period of seasonal weakness. In this environment, gold prices are likely to fall back to $2,150/ounce.
According to Marc Chandler, Managing Director at Bannockburn Global Forex, gold prices may decline in the short term. Gold prices can trade in the range of 2,250-2,260 USD/ounce.
However, some experts assess that gold demand is still increasing. Adam Button, Head of Currency Strategy at Forexlive, forecasts that Chinese demand will increase as the market returns to trading after the holiday.
EUR/JPY Short and NZD/JPY ShortEUR/JPY Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• If 2 touch 15 min continuation, 5 min risk entry within it.
NZD/JPY Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• If 2 touch 15 min continuation, 5 min risk entry within it.
GBPUSD: Dollar steadies after falling overnight, nonfarm payrollThe dollar index and dollar index futures were both steady in Asian trading after falling 0.6% in overnight trading.
Pressure on the USD comes from a strong yen, while Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that the bank will not raise interest rates further.
However, the outlook for the dollar remains upbeat thanks to the prospect of a Fed rate cut being pushed back to at least the fourth quarter.
The focus now turns to nonfarm payrolls data for April, released on Friday, for further signals on the economy and interest rates.
AUDUSD: AUDUSD technical analysis todayMost Asian currencies weakened on Friday, while the dollar steadied in anticipation of key inflation data expected to influence the Federal Reserve's stance on cuts. interest rates.
While the dollar's decline overnight - after weaker-than-expected US gross domestic product data - brought some relief to Asian currencies, this was largely offset offset by continued bets on higher US interest rates for longer. The dollar also eased some of the losses in Asian trade.
XAUUSD: The USD fell slightly as the market anticipated the Fed The US greenback skilled a small decline today, with buying and selling volumes falling because of a vacation in Japan. The yen, euro and pound continue to be close to their lowest tiers from ultimate week`s chaotic session. The Japanese yen confirmed mild profits in opposition to the greenback, buying and selling at 158.05, up almost 0.2%.
This modest circulate follows a bigger circulate on Friday, which noticed the yen circulate via a variety of almost 3.five yen, from 158.445 to 154.97. The volatility follows the Bank of Japan's selection to keep its coverage settings and supplied constrained perception into any capability modifications to its bond-shopping for program , that could aid the yen's value.
Investors at the moment are turning their interest to the United States Federal Reserve's (Fed) coverage evaluation scheduled to take area from April 30 to May 1, with expectancies of a postpone in hobby price cuts later. Persistent US inflation and careful remarks from Federal Reserve officials, such as Chairman Jerome Powell. Market members are searching ahead to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, predicting extra balanced buying and selling of the greenback-yen pair than in current weeks, prompted via way of means of expectancies of a a extra energetic Fed.
