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Market News Report - 27 October 2024The greenback was again a bullish force in the past week. Other currencies that put up an upward fight include the Swiss franc and euro. Then, the Bank of Canada delivered an expected cut in the CAD interest rate. Let's see what to expect for our beloved forex market in the coming weeks in our market report. Market Overview Below is a brief technical and fundamental analysis breakdown for all major currencies. US dollar (USD) Short-term outlook: bearish. Despite a recent 50 basis points (bps) rate cut, the Fed may not need to cut rates as aggressively going forward. This is partly due to recent positive job numbers and earnings data that exceeded expectations. Still, the central bank has signalled the potential for two 25 bps drops by the end of this year. Meanwhile, a 50 bps cut has pretty much been priced out, with STIR (short-term interest rate) markets seeing a 14% chance of a hold next month. Keep an eye out for NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) data this coming Friday. This will probably be the next USD driver, along with the US elections next Tuesday. The Dixie continues to head north after weeks of ranging around the key support area at 100.157. We have spoken several times about a potential technically-driven retracement (despite the bearish fundamentals). Meanwhile, the key resistance is far away at 107.348, which will remain untouched for some time. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The latest strong NFP report has raised expectations for a 25 bps rate cut (instead of 50 bps), which is giving USD a boost in the near term. So, there is no extreme dovish pricing anymore. While the bearish bias remains, the dollar is gaining amid a broad pullback. This idea could prove even more relevant if Donald Trump wins the election on 05 November. Upcoming labour and GDP data will also be key in determining USD's long-term future. Euro (EUR) Short-term outlook: bearish. The STIR markets were predictably accurate as the European Central Bank (ECB) cut the interest rate recently. However, they remain data-dependent on what to do in the future (although they are quite concerned about slow growth). Also, the past week saw weaker economic data across various European nations. Finally, short-term interest rate markets have indicated an 84% chance of a rate cut in December. The euro has finally made its bearish intention known on the charts, breaking the key support at 1.07774 (but only just). We need to see how this level reacts this week - so it's not out of the question. Meanwhile, the key resistance remains far higher at 1.12757. Long-term outlook: bearish. The latest rate cut and the avoidance of indicating a clear future move for the December meeting are among the key down-trending factors. Furthermore, a threat of a trade tariff with Trump could be negative. However, any improvements in economic data (according to the ECB) would be a turnaround. So, we are changing our long-term bias from 'bearish' to 'weak bearish' now. British pound (GBP) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of England (BoE) kept the interest rate steady in its recent meeting. Still, the language indicates they need to be “restrictive for sufficiently long.” Also, the central bank's higher-ups stressed "a gradual need" to cut rates. As with the ECB, the central bank's current key theme is fighting persistent inflation in the United Kingdom. So, it makes more sense to be dovish than hawkish. Not long ago, Governor Bailey hinted that "aggressive rate cuts" were possible if inflation went lower. We mentioned that the current retracement may be the start of a more serious bear move. So far, that's what the pound is experiencing. The nearest key support is at 1.26156, while the resistance target is 1.34343. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. Sequential rate cuts by the BoE may soon be a reality. Also, weak CPI, labour, or GDP data should be expected to back up the bearish bias. To add further to this point, the last GDP print shows a poor UK economy. However, the central bank hopes for lower service inflation, which may provide relief. Another interesting point is the latest CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) report, showing that GBP longs have been stretched to the upside. So, bullishness should be limited at some point. Japanese yen (JPY) Short-term outlook: bullish. The primary bullish catalyst is the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) recent decision to hike the interest rate. STIR markets expect a hold at the next meeting on Wednesday (but a hike at the start of next year). ​​Governor Ueda of the BoJ noted that despite domestic economic recovery, recent exchange rate movements have reduced the upside risk of inflation (which has been on an upward trajectory). All of this backs up the potential for a rate hold or hike. The 139.579 support area is proving quite strong, boosting the yen since mid-September. Still, the major resistance (at 161.950) is too far for traders to worry about. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. Lower US Treasury yields are one potential bullish catalyst for the yen (the opposite is true). Inflation pressures and wage growth would also provide upward momentum. We should also consider that the dovish tendencies of other major central banks and worsening US macro conditions are JPY-positive Still, as a slight downer, near-term inflation risks subsiding (according to the BoJ) reduce the urgency for a rate hiking cycle. Australian dollar (AUD) Short-term outlook: weak bullish. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the interest rate unchanged during the Sept. 25 meeting. They further stated that they "did not explicitly consider rate hikes" for the future, which is a marginally dovish statement. The Aussie remains sensitive to China’s recent economic woes. However, high iron prices have supported the former. Finally, recent positive unemployment data gives a base case for a hold in the RBA interest rate meeting early next month. After failing to break the 0.69426 resistance level several times, the Aussie has retraced noticeably from this area. While this market looked bullish, this pullback does surprisingly indicate otherwise. Still, we are quite far from the major support level at 0.63484, but consider the interesting dynamic with the opposite fundamentals of AUD and USD. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. While the RBA hasn’t ruled anything out, the central bank isn’t explicitly suggesting rate hikes in the future. It’s crucial to be data-dependent with the Aussie, especially with core inflation as the RBA's key focus area. However, the Australian dollar is pro-cyclical, meaning it is exposed to the economies and geopolitics of other countries, especially China. New Zealand dollar (NZD) Short-term outlook: bearish. Unsurprisingly, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZD) cut its interest rate by 50 bps recently and sees further easing ahead. This affirms another cut next month of potentially the same magnitude. Furthermore, the central bank is confident that inflation will remain in the target zone, adding more impetus to the bearish bias. Due to the rate cut, the Kiwi has been on a downward spiral, proving the strength of the major resistance level at 0.63790. Conversely, the major support is at 0.58498. Long-term outlook: bearish. The central bank's latest dovish stance (where it cut the interest rate) firmly puts the Kiwi in a 'bearish bracket.' They also revised the OCR rates lower and signalled steady winnings in the inflation battle. Canadian dollar (CAD) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of Canada (BoC) unsurprisingly delivered a 50 bps cut on Wednesday. Further cuts remain on the cards, with the long-term target being 3%. The BoC is signalling victory over inflation due to the cuts, with Governor Macklem suggesting that they would probably cut further until they achieve the optimal low inflation. In their words, 'stick the landing.' Overall, the bias remains bearish - expect strong rallies in CAD to find sellers. While the short-term fundamental biases of USD and CAD are bearish, CAD is weaker on the charts. USD/CAD is almost at the point of knocking on the key resistance at 1.39468, while the key support lies down at 1.33586. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. Expectations of a rate cut remain the focal point. The Bank of Canada has recognised the lower economic growth, and Macklem wishes to see this increase. Furthermore, any big misses in upcoming GBP, inflation, and labour data will send CAD lower. Still, encouraging oil prices and general economic data improvement would save the Canadian dollar's blushes. Swiss franc (CHF) Short-term outlook: bearish. STIR markets were, as usual, correct in their 43% chance of a 25 bps rate cut (from 1.25% to 1%) recently. In the Sept. 26 meeting, the Swiss National (SNB) indicated its preparedness to intervene in the FX market and further rate cuts in the coming quarters. The central bank's new Chair (Schlegel) said they "cannot rule out negative rates." Finally, the September CPI came in weak at 0.8%, against the expected year-on-year 1.1%. Still, the Swiss franc can strengthen during geopolitical tensions like a worsening Middle East crisis. USD/CHF has just broken out of the range (but only just) discussed in our last few reports. While remaining largely bearish, this market could return closer to the major support level at 0.83326 or climb its way to the higher major resistance level at 0.92244. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The bearish sentiment remains after the last SNB meeting, while inflation is being tamed with lower revisions. We should also remember that the SNB's intervention prevents the appreciation of the Swiss franc. The new chairman is more keen to cut rates than his predecessor, Jordan. Conversely, 'safe haven flows,' and geopolitical risks can positively support the currency. As with other central banks, inflation is a crucial metric in the SNB's policy rates. Conclusion In summary: The USD seems particularly strong (despite being fundamentally bearish), with the upcoming NFP release and US elections as the events to watch. This week's main high-impact news event is Wednesday's JPY interest rate decision. Our short and long-term fundamental outlooks remain unchanged from the last few weeks. As always, hope for the best and prepare for the worst. This report should help you determine your bias toward each currency in the short and long term.
TVC:DXY
by CityTradersImperium_CTI
XAUUSD /PRICES TRYING TO REACH NEW ATH / 4HXAUUSD / 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS The price has already achieved a profit of +340 pips, signaling a strong upward trend. The fact that this movement continued after a news release suggests that market sentiment is likely driven by external factors, such as macroeconomic events or announcements. The demand zone between $2,720 and $2,711 is critical because it reflects a price area where buyers are likely to step in. Historically, demand zones are areas of strong buying interest, which halts a downtrend. The expectation is that, if the price stays above this zone, it may bounce back towards the ATH of $2,757. This would mark a retest of the resistance level, a crucial price ceiling. A move beyond $2,757, extending to $2,771, would imply a breakout. In technical analysis, a breakout from an all-time high (ATH) can lead to a new price discovery phase, where prices rise with minimal historical resistance. Traders might look to capitalize on this momentum. The break below the demand zone would indicate that buying pressure is insufficient to stop the fall, leading to a continuation of the downtrend. A potential price drop to $2,685 would signal a notable reversal in sentiment.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ArinaKarayi
GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone, Please see our updated 1h chart levels and targets for the coming week. We are seeing candle body close above 2746 with gap above at 2752. Ema5 cross and lock will open the full range above. We also have 2736, as weighted Goldturn support and will need ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range. We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. BULLISH TARGET 2746 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2746 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2752 2762 BEARISH TARGETS 2736 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2736 WILL OPEN THE RETRACEMENT RANGE RETRACEMENT RANGE 2728 - 2720 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2720 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE RANGE SWING RANGE 2707 - 2692 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
28
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone, Please see our updated 4h chart levels and targets for the coming week, which we have been tracking and trading for the last two weeks and only updating the retracement and swing range, as we go on. Last week we stated that we had candle body close gap open to at 2737 on market open but needed ema5 cross and lock will further confirm this. - This played out last week perfectly and gave us the mea5 lock confirmation followed with the target hit. We also stated that we had a bearish target below at 2715. - This target a=was also completed last week We now have a candle body close above 2737 opening 2760 and ema5 cross and lock will further confirm and solidify this gap. We have support below at 2737 and weighted support at 2715. A break below the weighted support will open the range below otherwise we are likely to see bounces from these support levels. We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. BULLISH TARGET 2760 (EMA5 LOCK ABOVE 2737 WILL FURTHER CONFIRM THIS) POTENTIALLY 2779 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2779 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2797 POTENTIALLY 2814 BEARISH TARGETS 2737 2715 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2715 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE SWING RANGE 2693 - 2669 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
11
GOLD DAILY CHART SHORT/MID TERM ROUTE MAPHey Everyone, Please see update on our daily chart idea that we have been tracking for a while with the updated retracement and swing range. Previously after completing 2690 target, we stated that we had a candle body close above 2690, opening 2725, as ema5 was still lagging and that we got the push up nicely but just short of the target, which remained open for last week. - This was hit last week completing this target!!! We now have a ema5 cross and lock above 2725 for a continuation above with a gap open to 2760. Failure to complete this gap will see price test the retracement range for bounces and a further lock below the retracement range will open the swing range. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. Our long term bias is Bullish and therefore we will continue to use our smaller timeframes to buy dips using our levels and setups. Buying dips allows us to safely manage any swings rather then chasing the bull from the top. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
4
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone, A PIPTASTIC finish to the week with our chart idea playing out perfectly once again!! After completing all our targets this week, yesterday we stated that no cross and lock below 2717 confirmed the rejection into 2730, which then followed with a new cross and lock above 2730 re-opening 2739 and 2747. We also stated that 2739 was hit perfectly with 2747 left and failure to complete this target will see price retest the support below and as long as 2717 holds, we are likely to see the upper levels retested again. - This played out perfectly today with the drop into 2717, which held as support like we stated and gave another bounce into 2730, 2739 and now heading towards 2747. Our plans to buy dips using our levels played out once again!!! BULLISH TARGET 2730 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2730 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2739 - DONE 2747 - DONE BEARISH TARGETS 2717 - DONE We will now come back Sunday with our updated Multi time-frame analysis, Gold route map and trading plans for the week ahead. Have a smashing weekend!! And once again, thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
16
NAS100USD / UNDER EARNING Q3 / 4HNAS100USD / 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS Current Upward Momentum , The NAS100USD is moving upwards, likely driven by positive sentiment or market reaction to Q3 earnings. It indicates that buyers currently dominate the market, pushing prices higher. Supply Zone (20,418 - 20,522) , This is a potential resistance area. If prices reach this zone, they may face selling pressure. If sellers overpower buyers, it could lead to a downward movement from this level. Demand Zone (19,963 - 19,753) , If prices begin to decline from the supply zone, this demand zone serves as a support area. Here, buyers might step in, leading to a potential bounce or stabilization. This level might offer a good entry for long positions if the overall trend remains bullish. Breaking the Supply Zone , If NAS100USD breaks above 20,522, it would signal a continuation of the upward trend, targeting the next supply level around 20,820. This would indicate strong buying pressure and positive momentum, likely driven by sustained optimism or robust earnings.
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by ArinaKarayi
Gold needs to hit $2,740 to keep rising.Gold prices continued to rise in the Asian trading session on Friday, marking the second consecutive day of consolidation. Although it reached a record high of $2,759 on Wednesday, prices remained confined within a familiar range since the beginning of the week. The fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a less aggressive easing policy, along with uncertainties surrounding the presidential election and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Additionally, earnings reports from U.S. companies play a crucial role in shaping risk sentiment, which in turn affects the value of the U.S. dollar (USD) and gold prices. Personal opinion: To maintain a sustainable upward trend, surpassing the resistance level of $2,740 is really important. If successful, this will open up opportunities for gold buyers to continue targeting the psychological barrier of $2,750. If they can break through this level, the next goal will be the record high of $2,759. This indicates that the market is showing positive signs and could continue to grow, offering hope to investors. Pay attention to the price range: Buy Zone: 2704 - 2702 SL: 2697 Buy Zone: 2713 - 2711 SL: 2706 Sell Zone: 2740 - 2742 SL: 2747
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Chana-Trading
GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone, Another great day on the chart today, as our updated from yesterday played out once again. After completing our targets yesterday, we stated that we were seeing the rejection back into the weighted Goldturn level 2717, which will either provide support for another bounce up or a cross and lock below to confirm the lower range. - No cross and lock below 2717, as a new Goldturn was created just above it, confirming the perfect rejection for the bounce into 2730. This followed with a new cross and lock above 2730 re-opening 2739 and 2747. 2739 was hit perfectly completing this target once again with 2747 left. Failure to complete the next target will see price retest the support below. As long as 2717 holds, we are likely to see the upper levels retested again . We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. BULLISH TARGET 2730 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2730 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2739 - DONE 2747 - DONE BEARISH TARGETS 2717 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2719 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET BEARISH TARGET 2706 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2706 WILL OPEN THE RETRACEMENT RANGE RETRACEMENT RANGE 2692 - 2682 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2682 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE SWING RANGE 2673 - 2661 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
22
XAUUSD / OVERALL UNDER BULLISH PRESSURE / 4HXAUUSD / 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS Current Price Behavior , Prices are trading inside a demand zone—a price range where buying interest is expected to be strong, leading to potential price increases. Today, prices have declined by 1.80%, signaling short-term weakness. A potential decline is expected to continue toward the demand line at $2,685. This level serves as support, where buyers may step in to stop further declines. If prices stabilize inside the demand zone or if a 4-hour candle opens above/inside the zone, this suggests a potential increase. In this case, the target price levels are $2,750 and $2,757, implying a bullish rebound. If prices break below the demand zone, this indicates further weakness. In this case, prices are expected to decline further toward $2,685 and possibly $2,663, suggesting a bearish continuation.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ArinaKarayi
Gold prices edged up as U.S. yields fell and the dollar weakenedThe slight decline of the USD and U.S. Treasury yields may reflect stable market sentiment in Asia following a technology sell-off on Wall Street. U.S. stock futures rebounded as risk was re-established, thanks to strong earnings reports from Tesla Inc. Tesla reported adjusted earnings of 72 cents per share for the quarter, surpassing analysts' average estimates and ending a streak of four consecutive quarters of missed expectations. The company noted that the Cybertruck, delivered for the first time late last year, has started to turn a profit. Personal opinion: The price of gold is currently facing strong resistance at $2,723. This is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level from the recent record price increase, where the price rose from $2,604 on October 10 to an all-time high of $2,759. If it breaks above this level, buyers may find it easier to surpass the psychological barrier of $2,750. The next target will be the record high of $2,759. Pay attention to the price range: Buy Zone: 2712 - 2710 SL: 2705 Sell Zone: 2759 - 2761 SL: 2766 Sell Scalp: 2736 - 2738 SL: 2743
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Chana-Trading
1
Gold price analysis October 24Fundamental Analysis Gold prices fell sharply from an all-time high of $2,758 on Wednesday as US Treasury yields rose, while the greenback hit a two-month high, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY). Risk appetite has deteriorated, prompting a flight to safe-haven currencies, but not assets such as the yellow metal. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note has risen more than 65 basis points (bps) since the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) on September 18, amid concerns that a Trump presidency could spark inflation. Investors appear to believe that former President Donald Trump could defeat Vice President Kamala Harris, as most betting sites have indicated. As we approach the US election on November 5, investors are looking for shelter from that possibility. Investors are somewhat concerned that Trump's deficit spending, use of tariffs and large illegal immigrant deportation program could cause a new wave of inflation. Technical analysis Gold is recovering near the important price reaction zone of 2736-2738. When gold breaks this important zone, it will find the breakout zone of 2750. In case the European session gold fails to break this price zone and falls back, our target is to give a SELL signal around 2724 followed by the bottom zone of 2708 and the most important zone of today is 2700, the critical zone of the EMA. Wish you a successful trading day.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
2