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GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone, Another great day on the chart today with our 4H chart playing out, as analysed. We had price play between two weighted levels. 2669 Goldturn resistance and 2650, as Goldturn support and both highlighted, as targets. - Both targets have been completed. We were able to take advantage of the drop and buy inline with our plans to buy dips and complete the bullish target. We need to also keep in mind the retracement range was not fully completed and a gap left open. We are seeing price test 2650 for support and if this holds; we are likely to see another 2669 test. However, we will need to see ema5 lock above 2669 or we are likely to see another drop to complete the full retracement range. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. BULLISH TARGET 2669 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2669 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2695 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2695 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2717 POTENTIALLY 2738 BEARISH TARGETS 2650 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2650 WILL OPEN THE RETRACEMENT RANGE RETRACEMENT RANGE 2615 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2615 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE SWING RANGE 2582 - 2556 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
10
WEEKLY CHART MID/LONG TERM ROUTE MAPHey Everyone, I wanted to start the week with an update on our weekly chart idea shared yesterday. We stated and highlighted the detachment below for the correction and we also advised that we were looking for are-test on the channel top. We are looking for support above the channel top for a bounce and continuation. However, as stated yesterday; If we get a break inside the channel then we will track the movement with the levels highlighted within the channel and our smaller timeframe chart ideas to track the movement down and catch the bounces up. If the channel top provides support then we will track the movement up confirmed with ema5 cross and lock or candle body close. We currently have a candle body close gap to 2729 long range AXIS TARGET. The overall structure still remains Bullish, we just need to manage swings inline with corrections, which are always likely after a strong bull run.. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
2
Market News Report - 29 September 2024Due to an unsurprising rate hold, the Aussie was among the top-performing currencies in the major forex markets. Meanwhile, the dollar fell against AUD and several other currencies as the recent Fed cut continues to downplay the greenback. Have any fundamental outlooks changed for this week compared to our last report? Let's find out. Market Overview Below is a brief technical and fundamental analysis breakdown for all major currencies. US dollar (USD) Short-term outlook: bearish. Unsurprisingly, the Fed's recent historic 50 basis points (bps) rate cut is still a hot topic, keeping the bearish bias firmly in place. The central bank has signalled the potential for two 25 bps drops by the end of this year. In line with this sentiment, the Fed also revised 'dots' lower, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and unemployment higher. Negative expected jobs and ISM services data coming this week will add further to the bearish pressure. Despite these fundamentals, the DXY has yet to break the support area at 100.617, instead ranging around this level for quite a while now. So, be mindful of a potential technically-driven retracement. Meanwhile, the key resistance is far away at 107.348, which will remain untouched for some time. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. Markets anticipate rate cuts before the year ends, with the Fed keen to harness a soft landing. Also, any data on weakened jobs would be another bearish driver for the dollar. However, any potential strength in upcoming GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and jobs would make rate cuts less urgent, allowing for a USD retracement. Euro (EUR) Short-term outlook: weak bearish. As usual, the STIR (short-term interest markets) were predictably accurate as the European Central Bank (ECB) cut the interest rate a few weeks ago. While 'being mum' about forward guidance, they revised core inflation projections higher. Also, the past week saw weaker economic data across various European nations. Finally, short-term interest rate (STIR) markets have indicated a 93% chance of a rate cut in October. Meanwhile, the chart tells a slightly different story. After recently breaking a major resistance, the next target is 1.12757. Meanwhile, the key support area lies far below at 1.07774. Long-term outlook: bearish. After a long period, we have changed the long-term bias to 'bearish' (from 'weak bearish'). The ECB has yet to commit to a specific future path with the interest rate for some time. Due to lingering concerns over services inflation, a rate cut in October has become more likely than before. There is a 7% chance (down from 67% of a hold (according to STIR markets). All of this accents the bearish bias. British pound (GBP) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of England (BoE) kept the interest rate steady in its meeting. Still, the language indicates that they need to be “restrictive for sufficiently long.” Early last week, the central bank's higher-ups stressed "a gradual need" to cut rates. As with the ECB, the central bank's current key theme is fighting persistent inflation in the United Kingdom. So, it makes more sense to be dovish than hawkish. Expect any shocks in inflation (or other data like labour) to send the pound lower. Like the euro, the British pound has been saved by dollar weakness on the charts. However, it is more bullish. We must go onto the weekly chart to see the next resistance target at (1.34825). On the other hand, the nearest key support is far away at 1.26156. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. Sequential rate cuts by the BoE may soon be a reality. Also, expect any weak CPI, labour, and GDP data to back up the bearish bias. However, the central bank hopes for lower service inflation, which may provide relief. Another interesting point is the latest CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) report, showing that GBP longs have been stretched to the upside. So, bullishness should be limited at some point. Japanese yen (JPY) Short-term outlook: bullish. The primary bullish catalyst is the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) recent decision to hike the interest rate. STIR markets expect a hold (99% probability) at the next meeting but a hike at the start of next year. ​​Governor Ueda of the BoJ noted that despite domestic economic recovery, recent exchange rate movements have reduced the upside risk of inflation. All of this backs up the potential for a rate hold or hike. USD/JPY has long been bearish, recently surpassing (but not breaking with confidence) the major resistance at 140.252. Meanwhile, the major resistance (at 161.950) is too far for traders to worry about. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. Lower US Treasury yields are one potential bullish catalyst for the yen (the opposite is true). Inflation pressures and wage growth would also provide upward momentum. We should also consider that the dovish tendencies of other major central banks and worsening US macro conditions are JPY-positive Still, as a slight downer, near-term inflation risks subsiding (according to the BoJ) reduce the urgency for a rate hiking cycle. Australian dollar (AUD) Short-term outlook: weak bullish. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the interest rate unchanged during the Sept. 24 meeting. They further stated that they "did not explicitly consider rate hikes" for the future, which is a marginally dovish statement. The Aussie remains sensitive to China’s recent economic woes, especially with declining iron ore prices from the country’s steelmakers. As always, it depends on drops or rises in economic data like GDP, inflation and labour. The Aussie market has risen noticeably of late, having exceeded the recent resistance level at 0.68711. However, as it has yet to break the level confidently, we need to see how it behaves near the latter. Meanwhile, the major support level is down at 0.63484. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. The RBA has certainly changed their tune from hawkish to slightly hawkish/dovish. Overall, it's crucial to be data-dependent with the Aussie, especially with core inflation as the RBA's key focus area. However, the Australian dollar is pro-cyclical, so it is exposed to economic growth in other countries. New Zealand dollar (NZD) Short-term outlook: weak bearish. In its latest meeting, the central bank's dovish stance (where it cut the interest rate) puts the Kiwi in a 'bearish bracket.' Furthermore, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZD) also revised cash rate projections lower, which signals a dovish move. The markets see a 70% chance of an 0.5% rate cut next month. The Kiwi has recently breached a major resistance at 0.62220. While the next target is at 0.63696 (where it is very close to hitting), the latter area is still worth considering. Conversely, the major support is at 0.58498, an area which it is unlikely to test soon. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. In its latest meeting, the central bank's dovish stance (where it cut the interest rate) puts the Kiwi in a 'bearish bracket.' However, as a risk-sensitive currency like the Aussie, any growth data in China could trigger bullishness for NZD. So, traders should be data-dependent. Canadian dollar (CAD) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of Canada (BoC) recently dropped the interest rate to 4.25%, as anticipated by the markets for some time. Further cuts in the next few meetings are on the cards (with a 57% chance of a 50bps cut next month), with the long-term target being 3%. Unemployment, weak economic growth, and mortgage stress are the key drivers for this dovishness. The CAD continues to strengthen mildly due to USD weakness. It now looks to test the next major support target at 1.33586, while the major resistance is far ahead at 1.39468. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. Expectations of a rate cut remain the focal point. Governor Macklem himself stated a while ago that it's reasonable to expect more cuts in the future. Any big misses in the upcoming data for GBP, inflation, and GDP will probably boost the chance of a rate cut next month. Also, mortgage stress remains a major factor in this interest rate policy, and the BoC will have to cut rates to alleviate it. Expect encouraging oil prices, along with general economic data improvement, to save the Canadian dollar's blushes. Swiss franc (CHF) Short-term outlook: bearish. STIR markets were, as usual, correct in their 43% chance of a 25bps rate cut (from 1.25% to 1%) this past week. In the Sept. 26 meeting, the Swiss National (SNB) indicated its preparedness to intervene in the FX market and further rate cuts in the coming quarters. Still, the Swiss franc can strengthen during geopolitical tensions, such as a worsening Middle East crisis. We are seeing a clear range on USD/CHF in a strong bear move. So, let's see which side the market is going to incline more towards going forward (although it looks more south than north). The major support level is closer at (0.83326), while the major resistance level is far higher at 0.92244. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The bearish sentiment remains after the last SNB meeting, while inflation is being tamed with lower revisions. We should also remember that the SNB's intervention prevents the appreciation of the Swiss franc. On the flip side, 'safe haven flows' and geopolitical risks can be positively supportive for the currency. As with other central banks, inflation is a crucial metric in the SNB's policy rates. Conclusion We have kept our fundamental outlooks the same, except for the long-term outlook on the euro. Anyone trading the latter in the coming weeks should bear this in mind. Besides the US-related news, this week isn't filled with high-impact economic events, meaning less volatility. Still, hope for the best and prepare for the worst. This report should help you determine your bias toward each currency in the short and long term.
TVC:DXY
by CityTradersImperium_CTI
GOLD DAILY CHART SHORT/MID TERM ROUTE MAP Hey Everyone, Please see our updated daily chart idea with updated retracement, swing range and Goldturn levels. We are seeing price between two weighted levels. We have 2690 Goldturn resistance and 2645, as Goldturn support. We currently have a gap above at 2690, as we had ema5 cross and lock above 2645 opening 2690. The daily chart averages are lagging so sometimes gaps get filled before ema5 confirmation, in which case candle body close gaps are suffice. This gap has ema5 cross and lock leaving 2690 gap open before the rejection to find support at 2645 Goldturn for the bounce. Please note a break below 2645 will also open the lower range, which we can use to track the movement down and catch the bounces up. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. Our long term bias is Bullish and therefore we will continue to use our smaller timeframes to buy dips using our levels and setups. Buying dips allows us to safely manage any swings rather then chasing the bull from the top. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
4
WEEKLY CHART MID/LONG TERM ROUTE MAPHey Everyone, After tracking and trading our last long term weekly chart idea, we finally completed it and promised you all a new weekly chart long term chart idea. Please see our new week chart idea that we will be tracking and trading over the coming weeks and months if needed. We are currently seeing a breakout outside the new Goldturn channel (our unique way of drawing channels). We also have a detachment to ema5 below also inline with the channel top for a possible re-test for a correction. If we get a break inside the channel then we will track the movement with the levels highlighted for the bounces and ema5 cross and lock to track the movement level to level. If the channel top provides support then we will track the movement up confirmed with ema5 cross and lock or candle body close. We currently have a candle body close gap to 2729 long range AXIS TARGET. Just to confirm if we see a rejection before the gap and a break back into the channel then we will use the levels within the channel to provide the bounces, inline with our plans to buy dips in true level to level fashion, using our smaller time-frames keeping in mind the long range gap for the future.. Buying dips allows us to safely manage any swings, instead of chasing the bull from the top. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
4
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEK Hey Everyone, Please see our updated 4h chart levels and targets for the coming week. We are in a new rage but just like last time we were able to generate accurate levels to use for the coming week. We are seeing price between two weighted levels. We have 2669 Goldturn resistance and 2650, as Goldturn support. We currently have a gap above on market open at 2669 and below at 2650 and will need ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range. We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. BULLISH TARGET 2669 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2669 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2695 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2695 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2717 POTENTIALLY 2738 BEARISH TARGETS 2650 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2650 WILL OPEN THE RETRACEMENT RANGE RETRACEMENT RANGE 2615 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2615 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE SWING RANGE 2582 - 2556 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
4
GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEK Hey Everyone, Please see our updated 1h chart levels and targets for the coming week. We are in a new rage but just like last time we were able to generate accurate levels to use for the coming week. We are seeing price between two weighted levels. We have 2674 Goldturn resistance and 2650, as Goldturn support. We currently have a gap above on market open at 2674 and below at 2650 and will need ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range. We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. BULLISH TARGET 2674 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2674 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2694 POTENTIALLY 2716 BEARISH TARGETS 2650 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2650 WILL OPEN THE RETRACEMENT RANGE RETRACEMENT RANGE 2620 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2620 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE SWING RANGE 2588 - 2558 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
10
GOLD DAILY CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone, After completing our 1h and 4h chart earlier this week, we now finish off with our daily candle chart update. After completing all the previous gaps 2566 and 2608, we stated that we now had a candle body close above 2608 leaving 2650 open and ema5 would further confirm this. We also stated that the higher timeframes may not have room for ema5 lock, so a candle body close is also suffice. - This played out perfectly, as the candle body close was enough for the confirmation and we had the 2650 gap completed this week. We now have a candle body close above 2650 leaving 2695 open and once again, ema5 would further confirm this. We are currently seeing the detachment to ema5 happening for the daily chart correction. Our long term bias is Bullish and therefore we will continue to use our smaller timeframes to buy dips using our levels and setups. Buying dips allows us to safely manage any swings rather then chasing the bull from the top. We will now come back Sunday with our updated Multi time-frame analysis, Gold route map and trading plans for the week ahead. Have a smashing weekend!! And once again, thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
7
Coca-Cola's Bull Run Intensifies: Pole & Flag Breakout Expected!The chart shows that the stock price encountered resistance near the $65 level, subsequently dropping to $52, where it found support. After rebounding from this support, the price began to rise, successfully breaking through the Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern that had formed during the consolidation phase. Following this breakout, the price entered another consolidation period, created an Ascending Triangle Pattern. With another breakout, the stock price surged to an all-time high of $73.5 before experiencing a pullback. A bullish Pole & Flag pattern has emerged on the chart, signaling a potential continuation of the upward trend. It is expected that the price will break through this pattern and reach new highs in the near future.
NYSE:KOLong
by NaranjCapital
2
GOLD 1H AND 4H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone, Another smashing day on the charts!!! Please see yesterdays 1h chart update below We got the final target hit at 2658 completing this chart idea!!! Now please review the 4H chart idea, which we have been tracking and trading for the last two weeks, which is also playing out to perfection in true level to level fashion. Emea5 cross and lock above 2626 opened 2645 and 2664 - Both targets were hit and completed today!!! We are now seeing wick rejection on this level and will need a cross and lock above 2664 to open the range above or failure to lock above will see price test the lower Goldturns for the reactional bounce. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before, each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. BULLISH TARGET 2626 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2626 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2645 - DONE POTENTIALLY 2664 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2664 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2682 POTENTIALLY 2699 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
9
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone, Another PITASTIC day on the chart with our chart idea playing out perfectly once again. After completing our Bullish target at 2631 yesterday we stated that we were now looking for ema5 cross and lock above 2631 to open the range above. We got the cross and lock above 2631 opening 2644 and if momentum allows potentially 2658. 2644 was hit perfectly completing this target!!! A candle body close or cross and lock will further confirm the potential target aswell. We are happy with 2644, as our target in this range and now observing for the rest of today. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before, each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. BULLISH TARGET 2631 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2631 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2644 - DONE POTENTIALLY 2658 BEARISH TARGETS 2618 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2618 WILL OPEN THE RETRACEMENT RANGE RETRACEMENT RANGE 2603 - 2588 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2588 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE SWING RANGE 2575 - 2558 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
17
The Fed is testing the economy with 50 interest rate pointsThe 50bp reduce withinside the federal finances price to 5.0% surpassed Fitch`s expectancies in its September 2024 Global Economic Outlook. The length of the pass changed into difficult to justify primarily based totally on incoming financial data, with center offerings CPI inflation closing excessive at 4.9% 12 months-on-12 months in August and growing to 0.4% month-on-month. The selection appears partly to mirror a `hazard assessment` detail in reaction to latest labour marketplace dynamics, wherein the unemployment price has risen to 4.2% in August from 3.7% in December 2023. While the Fed`s brand new forecasts display unemployment closing low, Fed Chair Jerome Powell made severa references on the post-assembly press convention to the hazard that unemployment could - unexpectedly - maintain to rise. Significant enhancements in center inflation due to the fact that July 2023 have enabled the Fed to refocus at the most employment thing of its twin mandate, after having had a unique attention on inflation due to the fact that early 2022. 💎 OANDA:XAUUSD Buy 2606 - 2603💎 ✔️TP1: 2616 ✔️TP2: 2626 ✔️TP3: OPEN 🚫SL: 2593 ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖ 💎 OANDA:XAUUSD Sell 2634 - 2637💎 ✔️TP1: 2620 ✔️TP2: 2610 ✔️TP3: OPEN 🚫SL: 2644
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
Market News Report - 22 September 2024It was a historic week in FX, as the Fed delivered a half-percent interest rate cut for the first time since 2020. Based partly on this news, currencies like the British pound and the Australian dollar found strength across numerous markets. In our latest news report, let's see what to expect from all the major forex markets performance-wise. Market Overview Below is a brief technical and fundamental analysis breakdown for all major currencies. US dollar (USD) Short-term outlook: bearish. Unsurprisingly, the Fed delivered a dovish move with a historic 50 basis points (bps) rate cut. So, the bearish bias firmly remains, with signals of two 25 bps cuts in the pipeline for the rest of 2024. Furthermore, unemployment was recently revised higher. The DXY chart aligns perfectly with the fundamentals, having recently reached a major support area (100.617) on the daily chart. Interestingly, a clear break has yet to occur after several weeks. So, be mindful of a potential technically driven retracement. Meanwhile, the key resistance is far away at 107.348, which will remain untouched for some time. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. Markets anticipate several full rate cuts before the year ends, with the Fed being keen to harness a soft landing. Also, any data on weakened jobs would be another bearish driver for the dollar. However, any potential strength in upcoming GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and jobs would make rate cuts less urgent, allowing for a USD retracement. Euro (EUR) Short-term outlook: weak bearish. As usual, the STIR (short-term interest markets) were predictably accurate as the European Central Bank (ECB) cut the interest rate. While 'being mum' about forward guidance, they revised core inflation projections higher. Sources report that a cut in October is unlikely, but one in December is more likely. Meanwhile, the chart tells a slightly different story. After recently breaking a major resistance, the next target is 1.12757. Meanwhile, the key support area lies far below at 1.07774. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The ECB hasn't committed to a specific future path with the interest rate. Due to lingering concerns over services inflation, a rate cut in October is less likely, with a 76% chance of a hold (according to STIR markets). So future inflation data remains key, with improvements likely to tick the euro higher. We should note that the interest rate differential has become more positive for EUR after the latest Fed cut. British pound (GBP) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of England (BoE) kept the interest rate steady in last week's meeting. Still, the language indicates they need to be "restrictive for sufficiently long." As with the ECB, the central bank's current key theme is fighting persistent inflation in the United Kingdom. So, it makes more sense to be dovish than hawkish. Expect any shocks in inflation (or other data like labour) to send the pound lower. Like the euro, the British pound has been saved by dollar weakness on the charts. However, it is more bullish. We must go onto the weekly chart to see the next resistance target at (1.34825). However, it hasn't yet properly broken the closest area at 1.32666. On the other hand, the nearest key support is far away at 1.26156. Long-term outlook: bearish. Sequential rate cuts by the BoE may soon be a reality. Also, expect any weak CPI, labour, and GDP data to back up the bearish bias. Another interesting point is the latest CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) report, showing that GBP longs have been stretched to the upside. So, bullishness should be limited. Japanese yen (JPY) Short-term outlook: bullish. The primary bullish catalyst is the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) recent decision to hike the interest rate. STIR markets expect a hold (99% probability) at the next meeting but a hike at the start of next year. ​​Governor Ueda of the BoJ noted that despite domestic economic recovery, recent exchange rate movements have reduced the upside risk of inflation. All of this backs up the potential for a rate hold or hike. USD/JPY has long been bearish, recently surpassing (but not breaking with confidence) the major resistance at 140.252. Meanwhile, the major resistance (at 161.950) is too far for traders to worry about. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. Lower US Treasury yields are one bullish catalyst for the yen. Inflation pressures and wage growth would also provide upward momentum. We should also consider that the dovish tendencies of other major central banks are JPY-positive. Australian dollar (AUD) Short-term outlook: weak bullish. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unsurprisingly kept the interest rate unchanged not long ago to keep the fight against persistent inflation rate. (Diarise the upcoming rate statement on Tuesday for AUD.) Governor Bullock also stressed that the latter's results need to improve before a cut is envisioned. The Aussie remains sensitive to China's recent economic woes, especially with declining iron ore prices from the country's steelmakers. The Aussie market has risen noticeably of late, having exceeded the recent resistance level (at 0.68239). While the next nearby target is 0.68711, we need to see how it behaves near the latter. Meanwhile, the major support level is down at 0.63484. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. The RBA remains hawkish as per their last meeting, focusing on core inflation. Overall, it's crucial to be data-dependent with the Aussie, with recent labour data keeping the bullish script alive. However, the Australian dollar is pro-cyclical, so it is exposed to slow economic growth in other countries. New Zealand dollar (NZD) Short-term outlook: weak bearish. New Zealand's central bank recently dropped the Kiwi's interest rate from 5.50% to 5.25%. Lower-revised cash rate projections also hint at the potential for further cuts in the near future. The Kiwi has recently breached a major resistance at 0.62220. While the next target is at 0.63696, the latter area is still worth considering. Conversely, the major support is at 0.58498, an area which it is unlikely to test soon. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. In its latest meeting, the central bank's dovish stance (where it cut the interest rate) puts the Kiwi in a 'bearish bracket.' However, as a risk-sensitive currency like the Aussie, any growth data in China could trigger bullishness for NZD. As with its counterpart, traders should be data-dependent. Canadian dollar (CAD) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of Canada (BoC) dropped the interest rate to 4.25%, as anticipated by the markets for some time. Further cuts in the next few meetings are on the cards, with the long-term target being 3%. Rising unemployment and weak economic growth are the key drivers for this dovishness. The ongoing mortgage stress remains another bearish catalyst. The CAD continues to strengthen mildly due to USD weakness. It now looks to test the next major support target at 1.33586, while the major resistance is far ahead at 1.39468. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. Expectations of a rate cut remain the focal point. Governor Macklem himself stated some time ago that it's reasonable to expect more cuts in the future. Moreover, STIR markets have priced in an additional cut sometime this year. The mortgage stress remains a major factor in this interest rate policy, and the BoC will have to cut rates to alleviate it. Still, this narrative is getting tired. Expect encouraging oil prices, along with general economic data improvement, to save the Canadian dollar's blushes. Swiss franc (CHF) Short-term outlook: bearish. STIR markets forecast a 25bps rate cut this week (a 43% chance, up from 36% in the last week) and a 50bps cut in December this year. Secondly, SNB expects a moderate improvement in inflation, GDP (Gross Domestic Product), and unemployment to rise slightly in the near term. Still, the Swiss franc can strengthen during geopolitical tensions, such as a worsening Middle East crisis. We are seeing a clear range on USD/CHF in a strong bear move. So, let's see which side the market is going to incline more towards going forward. The major support level is closer at (0.83326), while the major resistance level is far higher at 0.92244. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The expected rate cut in the next SNB meetings for 2024 is the main bearish driver. However, the SNB's chairperson, Thomas Jordan, expressed that "appreciation of the Swiss Franc has an impact on monetary policy." This means that potential intervention by the central bank can go either way. Conclusion This week should be milder than the previous one filled with interest rate decisions. The main high-impact economic release to watch out for is the RBA rate statement on Tuesday. As always, hope for the best and prepare for the worst, but this report should help you determine your bias toward each currency.
by CityTradersImperium_CTI