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BankNIfty // Trading Psychological Analysis of BankNiftywww.tradingview.com We have seen a dramatic dance of BankNIfty in past few day. Here is the postmortem of the Daily price movement in past 2 weeks on Daily time frame. Based on the chart of **Nifty Bank Index** on the **daily time frame**, here is a breakdown of the trader psychology and price action visible: --- ### ** 1. Recent Price Action Context ** - **Uptrend before consolidation**: - The chart shows an initial bullish momentum marked by **strong green candles** that signify buyers are in control, pushing prices upward. - **Consolidation period**: - After the strong upward move, you observe a few small-bodied candles (doji and neutral-type) at the top. These candles indicate **indecision** in the market or a **pause** in momentum as buyers and sellers wrestle for control. - **Large wick and recovery**: - A significant candle shows a **large lower wick** where price fell drastically but closed near its opening price. This reflects: - **Strong buying interest** after a sharp dip. - Sellers initially pushed the price lower, but buyers stepped in, absorbing the selling pressure and driving the price back up. - This could signify the presence of **demand** at lower levels. --- ### ** 2. Trader Psychology ** - **Strong buyers early on**: - The rally at the start of the chart reflects **bullish sentiment**, as traders jumped in with confidence, likely due to positive news or market sentiment. - **Indecision phase**: - The small-bodied candles (e.g., doji) represent a point of hesitation: - Bulls may be taking profits after the strong rally. - Bears attempt to sell but struggle to push prices lower. - **Large wick psychology**: - A large lower wick indicates that: - Sellers tried to break support but failed to sustain the move. - This failure emboldens buyers to step in, creating a sharp **reversal or rejection of lower levels**. - Many traders see this as a **bullish signal**, as it suggests buyers are still active and defending the price zone. --- ### ** 3. Key Observations from Price Action ** - **Support Zone**: - The large wick indicates the area around the wick's low is a **potential support zone**. Buyers defended that level aggressively, and traders will watch it closely for future moves. - **Bullish recovery**: - The strong close of the most recent candle suggests bullish sentiment may be returning. It shows that buyers absorbed the selling pressure and pushed prices back up. - **Volume**: - The high volume (139.91M) supports the validity of the price action. High volume on a bullish recovery suggests significant participation from buyers. --- ### ** 4. What to Watch for Next ** 1. **Breakout vs. Reversal**: - If prices break above the recent consolidation range, expect a continuation of the uptrend. - Conversely, failure to break higher could lead to further consolidation or a potential reversal. 2. **Support Retest**: - Monitor if prices revisit the large-wick low (support). Holding this level could confirm strong demand, while a breakdown might shift the sentiment to bearish. 3. **Volume Confirmation**: - Continued bullish price action with strong volume would confirm buyer strength. --- ### ** Conclusion ** The chart reflects **buyer dominance** after a brief period of indecision and a strong rejection of lower prices. Traders appear to see value at lower levels, and sentiment leans bullish unless prices break below the recent support. Watch for a breakout or retest of the key levels for confirmation of the next directional move. Always feel free to like and comment here. We would love to hear you and respond. Best Wishes, Team StoxWare
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by Stox_Ware
GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone, Please see our updated 1h chart levels and targets for the coming week. We are seeing price play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 2666and a gap below at 2645. We will need to see ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range. We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. BULLISH TARGET 2666 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2666 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2682 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2682 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2697 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2697 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2719 BEARISH TARGETS 2645 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2645 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET 2628 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2628 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE SWING RANGE 2606 - 2586 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
28
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone, Please see our updated 4h chart levels and targets for the coming week. We are seeing ema5 play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 2693 and a gap below at 2656, which is already done with candle body close but need ema5 to cross and lock below to confirm the move further down. Weighted Goldturns will need ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range. We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. BULLISH TARGET 2693 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2693 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2726 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2726 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2765 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2765 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2795 BEARISH TARGETS 2656- DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2656 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET 2613 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2613 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE SWING RANGE 2561 - 2519 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
3
GOLD DAILY CHART MID/LONG TERM UPDATEHey Everyone, Please see the daily chart update we have been trading and tracking for a while now, to give you all an overall view of the range. After completing a nice run of bull targets over the last few months, we last updated this chart stating we were playing between two weighted levels 2629 and 2686 and 2629 was still providing support with no ema5 lock below leaving a the gap open again at 2686. 2686 was hit again last week completing this target one again with no further lock above 2686 confirming the rejection for the move down. We will continue to see play between 2629 and 2686 until we see a break with ema5 lock to confirm the next range. We will use our smaller timeframe analysis on the 1H and 4H chart to buy dips from the weighted Goldturns for 30 to 40 pips clean. Ranging markets are perfectly suited for this type of trading, instead of trying to hold longer positions and getting chopped up in the swings up and down in the range. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up using our smaller timeframe ideas. Our long term bias is Bullish and therefore we look forward to drops like this, which allows us to continue to use our smaller timeframes to buy dips using our levels and setups. Buying dips allows us to safely manage any swings rather then chasing the bull from the top. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
2
GOLD MONTHLY CHART LONG TERM/RANGE ROUTE MAPHey Everyone, Please see update on our monthly chart idea for our long term/range analysis that we last updated last week on month start. Last week we stated that this month also started with a detachment to ema5 below for a correction, which was nearly completed and can be pulled up to complete, also highlighted with a small mini circle on the charts for visual purpose. - This detachment to ema5 was completed perfectly. We also stated that the area above 2589 is a strong level of support with ema5 providing dynamic support now for a bounce. - This also played out perfectly with ema5 providing dynamic support and above our 2589 support level for the push up, perfectly hitting our axis target 2702. We will wait for month end to look for a body close above 2702for a further continuation or if momentum allows to compete the axis targets above before hand. However, we will keep in mind the channel top that may require a support test. We will continue to use all support structures, across all our multi time frame chart ideas to buy dips also keeping in mind our long term gaps above. Short term we may look bearish but looking at the monthly chart allows us to see the bigger picture and the overall long term Bullish trend. As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
3
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone, A fantastic finish to the week with our chart idea targets all completed! We traded the entire move up from Monday, all the way up, confirmed with cross and lock to give us plenty of time to get in for the action. 2645 - DONE 2661 - DONE 2679 - DONE 2697 - DONE After our last target was hit, we now finished off perfectly today with the rejection for the move down. We will now come back Sunday with our updated Multi time-frame analysis, Gold route map and trading plans for the week ahead. Have a smashing weekend!! And once again, thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
13
The Russell 2000 has just bottomed! Here's WhyAMEX:IWM CAPITALCOM:RTY AMEX:TNA 🤏🧢 Here I am, standing before you again, putting my name on the line and going against the GRAIN and telling you I believe we just bottomed on the AMEX:IWM The Russell 2000 is front-running this pullback and we are about to see a bounce next week and BIG push into year end! Here's WHY 👇 Before we take a look under the hood of the car lets talk about the weekly chart. Everything is still good: H5 Indicator is GREEN, Williams Consolidation Box is thriving, and we are on the volume shelf. Now lets take a look under the hood at the daily chart. 👇 Daily Chart Analysis: -Most important we are at the bottom of our Wr% Range and at the Green support bounce zone. As you can see every time we've been here over the last three months we've bounced for an average of 9%. -We broke down through our first level at $238 and are right at what I believe to be the final boss before we have our move higher. Why? Simple $234.66 is the previous ATH dated back to the end of 2021. So, I'm coming at you for the 100th time so it's engrained in your brain: A break of prior RESISTANCE needs a retest in order to FLIP it into SUPPORT. This is what I believe we are doing at this time at the second level of right under $235ish. -You may be asking yourself well how come we don't go down to the $228 level. Great question, it could happen but I don't believe it's a strong probability for the reasons laid out above and the fact that we've already flipped that area from resistance to support. Also, we would be caught up in a Anchored volume profile GAP that measures down to $220 and I don't believe we are at that level of a crash instead of a pullback...yet! -Speaking of Anchored Volume Profile Shelves we are currently holding on to this one even at the Level 2 support area. -As I always say we could Lit grab/ flash crash down to the weekly 9ema that sits right around $232 before we fake out to the down side and push back higher towards ATH into year end. In summary, I believe the AMEX:IWM has just bottomed and we’re poised for a bounce next week with a strong push into year-end. The Russell 2000 is leading this pullback, and both weekly and daily charts show positive indicators. With our H5 Indicator green and strong support levels holding, we’re ready to break higher. 🔜🎯$259 🎯$306 Not financial advice.
AMEX:IWMLong
by RonnieV29
9
EUR/USD 15-Minute Analysis: Breakout Opportunityn the 15-minute time frame, EUR/USD is approaching a purple resistance zone. Here's my idea: Entry Plan: If the price breaks out above the purple resistance with confirmation, it could provide a long entry opportunity. First Target: The next resistance level in the pink zone. Key Caution: Be mindful of the black line, where the Point of Control (POC) is located. This could act as a key level of reaction. Monitor price action carefully as we approach these levels to confirm the breakout and validate the move. Let me know your thoughts! 👍
Long
by WaveRiders2
Another Buying Opportunity on $HIMS! 60% UpsideNYSE:HIMS 💊 We are only half way through the week and this is me telling you that THIS IS ANOTHER BUYING OPPORTUNITY! I said the same thing when we had the Short Attack and flush to $19. What you don't realize is that the Wr% at the top of the chart ran up into the barrier of the Williams Consolidation Box and now needs to create it's support and bounce in order to form the BOX. I still believe that's $30 (meaning we wick back above it before weeks end). Whether we do or don't doesn't really matter in the longer term (weeks/months). The downside on the Wr% is limited as well due to the rising trendline (Arrow) we are on since September. If we fall to that I strongly believe we get a bounce off of it, thus creating the box there or where we currently are at. The reason this is a buying opportunity and shouldn't matter to the majority of you is because IMO it will be at $40+ before EOY! Do what you want but I'm cashing in on my Covered Call Premium and Buying more! Not Financial Advice.
NYSE:HIMSLong
by RonnieV29
8
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone, Piptastic day on the charts once again, with our chart idea playing out to perfection!!!! We were able to track and trade the entire move up from Monday confirmed with ema5 lock for each gap target. Yesterdays update finished off with ema5 cross and lock above 2679 opening 2697. - This target was completed perfectly today followed with further cross and lock above 2697 opening 2712, which was also hit today completing this chart idea. We can now move over to our 4H chart idea to continue to track the movement should it decide to push further up, until we share our new 1H chart idea on our Sunday update. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. BULLISH TARGET 2645 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2645 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2661 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2661 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2679 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2679 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2697 - DONE As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
17
Called the DIP BUY Perfectly, Now we march back to $49+C3.AI - NYSE:AI 🤖 We had a large 16% move higher after earnings yesterday to now 8% down. Lets talk about why and some levels I'm looking at. First, the H5 and Williams Consolidation Box strategies are still intact and no reason to fret. I'm not making the same mistake after we saw this same volatility after NASDAQ:SOUN earnings. Second, I believe the move is based on analysts combining to keep this stocks price targets to sub $30 while it's currently high $30's low $40's last few weeks. I believe this could be a fake out and pullback entry point for Wall Street to enter just as they did on Sound Hound AI. Could be destroying short term options as well as we see on most earnings calls. Finally, I believe we are going to continue higher after some volatility today and this week. They honestly had great earnings with a double beat and raise on guidance. While speaking more on their great new NASDAQ:MSFT partnership. As you can see on the chart the yellow dotted line is the current pre-market price at $38ish which puts it right at previous support and resistance levels dating back to 2022 and keeps it on the volume shelf. With the H5 and WCB being intact while we are at a key support area I'm going to be a buyer here. The white box on the chart below is the buy box according to the factors outlined above. Buy Box: $36-$39 🎯🔜$47 🎯$49 🎯$58 Not financial advice.
NYSE:AILong
by RonnieV29
15
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone, Smashing start to the week with our chart idea playing out perfectly, as analysed. We started the day with our first bullish target hit at 2645. This followed with ema5 cross and lock above 2645 opening 2661, which was hit perfectly completing this gap. We now have a gap left at 2679, which fell just short and as long as 2661 holds, we will look for this gap to be completed. However, if we see ema5 lock below 2661, then we are likely to see lower Goldlturns tested to find support again. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. BULLISH TARGET 2645 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2645 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2661 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2661 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2679 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2679 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2697 BEARISH TARGETS 2626 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2626 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET 2612 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2612 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE SWING RANGE 2599 - 2584 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
18
Gold H1 (XAU/USD)The 1-hour XAU/USD chart reveals a potential corrective Elliott Wave (A-B-C) pattern following a completed (W-X-Y) structure. Expected Corrective ABC Pattern: Wave (A): The initial decline is anticipated to target the $2,605-$2,620 support zone. Wave (B): A minor retracement is expected to occur, likely staying below the $2,662 resistance level. Wave (C): The final wave may extend the decline towards the $2,560-$2,580 lower support zone. Key Levels to Watch: Resistance: $2,662 Support Zones: Middle support: $2,605-$2,620 Lower support: $2,560-$2,580 Keep an eye on the evolving market conditions and adjust your trading strategy accordingly. Good luck!
TVC:GOLDShort
by me22_
1
Market News Report - 08 December 2024The dollar was back to its usual dominance in the past week, concluded by a positive Non-Farm Payroll figure last Friday. The yen also picked up the bullish momentum it began last week. It will probably be a volatile week with the release of four interest rate decisions. Let's explore whether our latest market news report reveals notable technical and fundamental changes in the major forex pairs. Market Overview Below is a brief technical and fundamental analysis breakdown for all major currencies. US dollar (USD) Short-term outlook: weak bearish. The Fed recently cut the interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) from 5.00% to 4.75%, emphasizing that inflation is moving towards the 2% target but is still slightly elevated. Keep an eye on the new inflation rate on Wednesday. October's labour data was down, mainly due to the impact of US hurricanes and labour disputes with Boeing. While some mildly positive economic data exists, the bearish bias remains for USD, with short-term interest rate (STIR) market pricing indicating an 88% chance (up from 67%) chance of a 25 bps cut this week. Furthermore, last Friday's NFP print suggested that there is nothing to stop the Fed from cutting rates. While the Dixie is still quite bullish, it has retraced slightly from the new key resistance at 108.071. Meanwhile, the key support is far away at 100.157, which will remain untouched for some time. Long-term outlook: bearish. A noteworthy point about the recent Fed meeting is the removal of the line "the committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards 2 percent." Finally, Powell also clarified that the US elections won't affect their future decisions. The big takeaway is that the Fed will see how fast/far they should cut rates. December 6's jobs data indicates that CPI this week will be important and closely watched by markets. Euro (EUR) Short-term outlook: bearish. STIR markets were predictably accurate as the European Central Bank (ECB) cut the interest rate last month. However, they remain data-dependent on what to do in the future (although they are quite concerned about slow growth). STIR markets have indicated an 87% chance of a rate cut on Thursday (also backed by the ECB's Stournaras). Still, a pullback may be due at some point. The euro has clearly broken the key support we mentioned previously (1.07774) - the next area of interest is 1.03319. Meanwhile, the key resistance remains far higher at 1.12757. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The latest rate cut and the avoidance of indicating a clear future move for the December meeting are among the key down-trending factors. However, any improvements in economic data (according to the ECB) would be a turnaround. The threat of a fresh trade tariff with Trump is hugely influential and may cause the euro to be sold off on tariff fears. Other contributing factors to a pressured euro are bumpy French politics and the prospect of a German snap election. British pound (GBP) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of England (BoE) recently cut the bank rate from 5% to 4.75% as anticipated. The language indicates they need to be restrictive and a "gradual approach" to policy easing. Governor Bailey also highlighted that rates will probably be brought down cautiously. Furthermore, he forecasted four rate cuts in 2025, which is a tad bit more dovish than market pricing. A big miss in the GDP print on Friday, could be enough to send the GBP lower this week. However, inflation data still remains crucial. Like other dollar pairs, GBP/USD has looked bearish for some time. After breaching the key support at 1.26165, the next area of interest is now 1.22994. Meanwhile, the resistance target is far away at 1.34343. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The BoE sees inflation (its main concern currently) as being stickier for longer. Bailey wishes to see it down to 2%. This is a moderately hawkish hint. Overall, inflation data (and other economic) data will be important for the British pound. Finally, STIR markets indicate an 89% chance (up from 84%) of a rate hold by the BoE next Thursday. Japanese yen (JPY) Short-term outlook: bullish. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) recently kept the interest rate the same at the end of October. So, our outlook remains largely unchanged. However, a rise in USD/JPY could raise the possibility of the BoJ's intervention. At the last BoJ interest rate announcement, Ueda stated that hikes would continue if the central bank's projections weren't realised. Last week, he backed up this sentiment by saying that keeping real interest rates too long for too long would lead to higher inflation, which is a hawkish suggestion. The 139.579 support area is proving quite strong, boosting the yen since mid-September. However, there has been a noticeable retracement amid this move). Still, the major resistance (at 161.950) is too far for traders to worry about. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. The BoJ's tightening stance and inflationary pressures give the yen a bullish sentiment. The central bank wishes to avoid further JPY weakness, with Finance Minister Kato warning against 'excessive FX moves.' We should also keep an eye on US Treasury yields, as rising yields could derail JPY upside. Conversely, any declines in US yields would likely provide a major boost to the yen. Australian dollar (AUD) Short-term outlook: neutral. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently kept its interest rate unchanged, marking the eighth consecutive hold. They emphasised that policy will remain restrictive until inflation moves toward its target. The RBA also lowered its GDP forecasts while the labour market remains tight. Diarise the upcoming AUD interest rate decision scheduled for Tuesday. The dollar remains dominant against the Aussie, as AUD/USD is very close to testing the key support at 0.63484. Meanwhile, the key resistance level lies far ahead at 0.69426. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. While the RBA suggests that rate hikes won't be necessary going forward, it hasn't ruled anything out. Governor Bullock recently mentioned that they would act if the economy dropped more than desired. It’s crucial to be data-dependent on the Aussie, especially with core inflation as the RBA's key focus area. Also, the Australian dollar is procyclical, with particular exposure to China's geopolitics. Trump's recent win in the US election means the prospect of trade tariffs with China has increased (potentially causing headwinds for AUD). New Zealand dollar (NZD) Short-term outlook: weak bearish. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut its interest by 50 bps to 4.25% as expected last week, the same as in October. It also signalled further reductions for early next week while remaining confident that inflation will remain in the target zone. However, risks of increased inflation volatility and relative price unpredictability remain. The Kiwi has been on a notable downward spiral, proving the strength of the major resistance level at 0.63790. NZD/USD is close to the key support at 0.57736, reaffirming this bearish market. Long-term outlook: bearish. Governor Orr indicated in the last RBNZ meeting that a 50 bps cut in February 2025 is possible. So, we can rule out a rate hike, more so with potential trade tariff issues between China and the United States. These can cause headwinds for NZD and AUD. Canadian dollar (CAD) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of Canada (BoC) unsurprisingly delivered a 50 bps cut in October. Further cuts remain on the cards, with the long-term target being 3%. Markets indicate a likelihood of a cut on Wednesday (maybe another 50 bps). The BoC is signalling victory over inflation due to the cuts, with Governor Macklem suggesting that they would probably cut further until they achieve the optimal low inflation. In their words, 'stick the landing.' Overall, the bias remains bearish - expect strong rallies in CAD to find sellers. While the short-term fundamental biases of USD and CAD are bearish, CAD is the weakest on the charts. This market is very close to the fresh key resistance at 1.41781. Meanwhile, the key support lies far down at 1.34197. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. Expectations of a rate cut remain the focal point, with STIR markets indicating a 68% chance of a 50 bps cut in December. The Bank of Canada has recognised the lower economic growth, and Macklem wishes to see this improve. Furthermore, any big misses in upcoming GBP, inflation, and labour data would send CAD lower. Still, encouraging oil prices and general economic data improvement would save the Canadian dollar's blushes - the opposite is true. Swiss franc (CHF) Short-term outlook: bearish. STIR markets were, as usual, correct in their 43% chance of a 25 bps rate cut (from 1.25% to 1%) in the Sept. 26 meeting. The Swiss National (SNB) also indicated its preparedness to intervene in the FX market and further rate cuts in the coming quarters. STIR pricing indicates a 57% chance of a 50 bps cut on Thursday. The October CPI was weak at 0.6% (another poor result as it was for September). Finally, the central bank's new Chair (Schlegel) said they "cannot rule out negative rates," further stating that the SNB would be ready to implement this if needed. Still, the Swiss franc can strengthen during geopolitical tensions like a worsening Middle East crisis. USD/CHF keeps rising steadily towards the major resistance level at 0.922444, while the major support level is at 0.83326. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The bearish sentiment remains after the last SNB meeting, while inflation is being tamed with lower revisions. We should also remember that the SNB's intervention prevents the appreciation of the Swiss franc. The new chairman is more keen to cut rates than his predecessor, Jordan. The SNB aims for neutral rates between 0 and 0.50% (currently at 1%). Conclusion In summary: The US dollar remains one of the key currencies to watch. However, the Japanese yen is another considerable option due to its recent bullish momentum. EUR, AUD, CAD and CHF are all the currencies with new upcoming interest rate decisions. Our short and long-term fundamental outlooks remain largely unchanged from the last few weeks. As always, hope for the best and prepare for the worst. This report should help you determine your bias toward each currency in the short and long term.
TVC:DXY
by CityTradersImperium_CTI