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England's Economic Crossroads and Banking ResilienceEngland’s economy is facing a complex array of challenges, driven by domestic social unrest, geopolitical tensions, and evolving labor dynamics. Recent riots, sparked by both marginalized Muslim communities and extreme right-wing groups, highlight deep-seated socio-economic issues. These tensions have been exacerbated by international events, such as the October 7, 2023, incident in Israel, which reverberated through England's Muslim community. In addition to these social and geopolitical pressures, the economic indicators present a mixed picture. Inflation, unemployment, and a housing crisis have strained the economy, while regional conflicts, such as the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine wars, pose further risks to energy prices, trade, and security. Amidst this backdrop, the Bank of England’s recent declaration that top UK lenders can be dismantled without taxpayer bailouts is a significant milestone. This statement reflects the progress made since the 2008 financial crisis in enhancing the resilience of the UK banking system through stricter capital requirements and resolvability assessments. However, emerging risks such as climate change, cyberattacks, and global financial interconnectedness require continuous vigilance and robust regulation. Inspiration and Challenge: As traders and investors, understanding the interplay between social dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and financial stability is crucial. England’s current economic state challenges us to think beyond traditional metrics and consider the broader implications of regional conflicts and social unrest on financial markets. The resilience of the UK banking system offers a glimmer of stability, but it also calls for ongoing scrutiny of emerging risks. Engage with this analysis to deepen your strategic insights and navigate the complexities of the global economic landscape.
FTSE:UKXShort
by signalmastermind
Understanding US Economic newsUS Economic Indicators: We know about trends and trend changes, but why a trend changes? The tops and bottoms of the market are determined by the fundamentals, like news releases, while the technicals show us how we get between those two points. So a news release can be the cause or trigger of a trend change. So it is to our advantage to at least be aware of upcoming news releases. Here are some releases to watch for: Non-Farm Payrolls Non-Farm Payrolls have proven itself to be one of the most significant fundamental indicators in recent U.S. history. As a report of the number of new jobs created outside the farming industry each month, a positive or negative NFP can get traders to act very hastily. A better than expected figure is very bullish for the dollar, whereas a more sluggish number usually results in the dollar being sold off. There is another component of unemployment released on the same day: The Unemployment Rate. Unemployment measures the amount of people that are out of a job, but are actively seeking one. If this number is smaller, then it means that the people that are seeking jobs are finding them, possibly meaning that businesses are well off and that the economy is expanding. The NFP is a number, usually between 5-6 figures, whereas the Unemployment rate is a percentage. A higher NFP number and lower unemployment number are generally bullish for the dollar and vice versa. It is difficult to trade the NFP and Unemployment Rate only because many times traders will not pay attention to what seems to be the most significant components, but will instead focus in on what reinforces their bias. Also, the release causes a significant amount of volatility in the markets. FOMC Rate Decision Interest Rate decisions for the Fed Funds Rate are very important when trading the U.S. Dollar. When the Fed raises interest rates, the yield offered by dollar denominated assets are higher, which generally attracts more traders and investors. If interest rates are lowered, that means that the yield offered by dollar denominated assets is less, which will give investors less of an incentive to invest in dollars. When the decision is made about the rate it is always accompanied by a statement where the Fed gives a brief summary of what they think of the economy as a whole. When reading the statement it is important to check the exact language. Many times by the time that the decision is published, it is usually factored into the market. This means that only slight fluctuations are seen if the decision is as expected. The statement on the other hand is analyzed word for word for any signs of what the Fed may do at the next meeting. Remember the actual interest rate movement tends to be less important than the expectations for future interest rate moves. Retail Sales The Retail Sales figure is an important number in a series of key economic data that comes out during the month. Because it measures how much businesses are selling and consumers are purchasing, a strong retail sales figure could signal dollar bullishness because it means strength in the US economy, whereas a less-than-expected number could lead to dollar bearishness. Again, the logic behind this is that if consumers are spending more, and businesses are making more money, then the economy is picking up pace, and to keep inflation from creeping in during this time period, the Fed may have to raise rates, all of which would be positive for the US dollar. Traders tend to use the Retail Sales figure more as a leading indicator for other releases such as Consumer Confidence and CPI, and thereby don’t usually “jump the gun,” unless the numbers are terribly out of proportion. Foreign Purchases of US Treasuries (TIC Data) The Treasury International Capital flow (TIC) reports on net foreign securities purchases measures the amount of US treasuries and dollar denominated assets that foreigners are holding. A key feature of the TIC data is its measurement of the types of investors the dollar has; governments and private investors. Usually, a strong government holding of dollar denominated assets signals growing dollar optimism as it shows that governments are confident in the stability of the U.S. dollar. Looking at the different central banks, most important seems to be the purchases of Asian central banks such as that of Japan and China. Waning demand by these two giant US Treasury holders could be bearish for the US dollar. As for absolute amount of foreign purchases, the market generally likes to see purchases be much stronger than the funding needs of that same month’s trade deficit. If it is not, it signals that there is not enough dollars coming in to match dollar going out of the country. As a side note, purchases by Caribbean central banks are generally seen to be less consistent since most hedge funds are incorporated in the Caribbean. Hedge funds generally have a much shorter holding period than other investors. US Trade Balance The Trade Balance figure is a measure of net exports minus net imports and tends to be negative for the U.S. as it is primarily a “consuming” nation. However, a growing imbalance in the Trade Balance suggests much about the current account and whether or not if the U.S. is “overspending” on foreign goods and services. Traders will understand a decreasing Trade Balance number to implicate dollar bullishness, whereas a growing disparity between exports and imports will lead to dollar bearishness. Because the figure precedes the Current Account release, it pretty much helps project the direction of change in the Current Account and also begins to factor in those expectations. Current Account Balance The U.S. Current Account is a figure representing the total accrued deficit of the U.S per quarter against foreign nations. Traders will interpret a greater deficit as bad news for the U.S. and will consequently sell the dollar, whereas a shrinking deficit will spark dollar bullishness. Usually, the Current Account Deficit is expected to be funded by the net foreign securities, but when ends don’t meet in these data, the Current Account could signal a big dollar sell-off. Additionally, because the Current Account data comes out after the Trade Balance Numbers, a lot of its expectations begin to get priced into the market, so a surprise to either side of expectations could result in big market movements for the dollar. Consumer Price Index (CPI)/Producer Price Index (PPI) The Consumer Price Index is one of the leading economic gauges to measure the pace of inflation. Many investors and the Fed constantly monitor this figure to get an understanding about the future of interest rates. Interest rates are significant because not only do they have a direct impact on the amount of capital inflow into the country, but also say much about dollar-based carry trades. If the inflation number comes in higher than expected, traders will interpret that to mean that an interest rate hike is more likely in the near future and will thus buy dollars, whereas a figure that falls short of expectations may cause traders to wait on the sideline until the Fed actually makes a decision. Essentially, trading a negative change in CPI is much more difficult than trading a positive change due to the nature of different interpretations. A significant increase in the CPI will result in much dollar bullishness, but a decrease will not necessarily result in dollar bearishness. The CPI measures inflation at the retail level (consumers), while the PPI measures the inflation at the wholesale level (producers). Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The U.S. Gross Domestic Product is a gauge of the overall output (goods & services) of the U.S. economy. If the figure increases, the economy is improving, and often the dollar will strengthen. If the number falls short of expectations or meets the consensus, dollar bearishness may be triggered. This sort of reaction is again tied to interest rates, as traders expect an accelerating economy to be mired by inflation and consequently interest rates will go up. However, much like the CPI, a negative change in GDP is more difficult to trade; just because the pace of growth has slowed does not mean it has deteriorated. On the other hand, a better than expected number will usually result in the dollar rising as it implicates that a quickly expanding economy will sooner or later require higher interest rates to keep inflation in check. Overall though, the GDP has fallen in significance and its ability to move markets since most of the components of the report are known in advance Durable Goods The Durable Good figure measures the amount of capital spending the U.S. is doing, such as on equipment, transportation, etc., both on a business and personal level. Essentially, the more the U.S. spends the more the dollar stands to benefit; the opposite is also true. This is because increased spending could very well be a harbinger for inflation, and thus consequently, interest rate hikes. Traders will usually focus in on the durable goods figure, but not too deeply, as it usually precedes data regarding housing starts and the annualized GDP figure release. Therefore trading based on the Durable Goods number is only voluminous when stagnancy in other key economic releases has been confirmed by a market consensus.
Education
by Mihai_Iacob
21
Interest rates, Inflation and how to trade it.Hey Traders, Massive week this week fundamentally for the Forex market. 3 big interest rate decisions being released so I thought there was no better time than now to have a chat about what it is, what it indicates and finally, how traders profit from it. Fed and BOE almost guaranteed to hike rates, RBA is sitting unsure. Have a watch of the video and I am more than happy to have a discussion in the comment section! As always, have a fantastic trading week and I wish you all many profits.
Education
by the5erstrading
4
EURGBP CPI Data review!Hey Traders, Having a look back at the previous analysis that I published earlier last week on the EURGBP pair. Looking for a positive data release from the Great British Pound CPI and therefore shorting this pair. I developed a box area where we were trading in a range and I was anticipating a break out of the range following the data. Join me as I review the analysis, how it all planned out, and then also why I believe it moved the way it did. Also why a lot of people would have been caught out by the actual release of the CPI data. I hope you enjoyed this outlook an as always. Have a successful trading week!
by the5erstrading
2
EURO is become more optimistic: Grant News for Eurozone DataHello guys, in this technical analysis. Euro it's seem that is more optimistic. Well, in that case, we analyze EUR/GBP. So, in H4 timeframe we see a possible formation of shoulder head shoulder inverted, that mean is EUR is more optimistic, we could to see a strong bought of EUR, because EUR is have the safe-haven assets ane the best currency of Forex for now. In the past week we are in the bullish rising wedge, that mean a bullish pattern, the possibility that EUR is go back to the bullish channel is so highly. And also, I represent my 3 targets to reach it in the price label. Other coincidence is in Daily that we could to experiment a golden zone in the 0.618% of Fibonacci, and that mean a possible continue in the up trend!!! Now, it's more importan to know if the EUR doesn't break up the bullish channel and appear a candlestick to entry in sell, we could to experiment in this par and EUR more weakness than GBP, because this par is so sensitive in two hears and this par is so difficulty to know what is the movement and it's one of the Forex's curency based in a lot fundamentals. For me my targets it's just 95 pips, in case that EUR is more optimistic than GBP and break up the channel to continue it, we could to see another buy it for EUR in this par until the reach the 0.92. There are important kesy to take in noticed in the fundamentals in this par: 1. Pound terling to Euro outlook could be influenced by the European Central Bank this week. 2. Pound to Euro exchange rates slips from highs as Euro boosted by Recovery hopes 3. Pound exchange rates under pressure as hopes for Brexit Delay Fade. 4. In the last week investors bought the pound in reaction to various global and domestic aspects 5. Euro Exchange Rates steady as markets await evil developments. 6. Euro has been one of the currencies to benefit most strongly from coronavirus crisis. 7. Euro outlook remains fairly strong overall, due to for an European Union recovery fund to be agreed, as well as signs of recovery in Eurozone data. 8. Pound to Euro exchange rate awaits week of Eurozone news. 9. This week could be a key one for the Euro outlook. Many key Eurozone ecostats will be published throughout the week, and the European Central Bank policy decision for tomorrow could be especially influential. 10. Tomorrow's also, we will see the publication of Germany's final June inflation rate results 11. Eurozone industrial production and economic sentiment data from ZEC will also be published. 12. Pound to Eurzo exchange rate dips as uncertaines over brexit increase 13. Sterling Pound falls as only one in four UK companies are prepared for Brexit. That is another bad indicator for UK and their currency 14. EUR could be benefited as concerns linger over a second wave of covid-19 cases. Rememebr that in UK we see a lot cases os covid-19, and if US Dollar is drop, Sterling Pound is too, because the par GBP/USD is more influenced by US Dollar. 15. Euro edged higher against the GBP today as invetors continue to seek out the safe-haven status of the single currency. With fears continuing to grow over a posible second wave of the coronavirus, safe assets like the EUR and the US Dollar are trading higher today. Well guys, all is depend the news for this week, if we see EUR/GBP good news, EUR it's could be benefited in all pars independent which are based in the good news for the Eurozone from today. So, we could see a strong expectative bullish this week for EUR. So, we hope a buy at this level that mentioned!!!
Long
by harisonhbn9718
Is there a formation of grant Shoulder Head Shoulder in Bitcoin?Hello guys, it's so curious about my analysis, because my we could to see a possible formation in Daily of Shoulder Head Shoulder, but look out what there are. But, look how the candlestick in Daily that closed up in minutes it's confirm that we are to the moon soon!!!. Guys, Bitcoin is so prepared and I see the perspective so bullish to break up the simetric triangle from 2017 in Monthly or Weekly that you can to see it. But now, if you see it in Bitcoin, Bitcoin is could to to reach with a lot trusted the zone of $9,800 USD I believe that Bitcoin in weekly is so prepared to go to bull run soon!!! So, guys, I believe that we are to conclude the elliot wave # E, because if you noticed in 2017, it's touch when Bitcoin was in $1,600 USD in the bull run of 2017, so, this is one point historical of Bitcoin, now in weekly as we are into this ascendent triangle, so this is a possible escape until the $11,800 USD as target to reach. And also, sleeping of some altcoins that can to break up the explosion soon as Bitcoin continue in this range of into this ascedentr triangle, many altcoins could to reach the up the price. I follow a Cardano principally because I buy a lot ADA or Cardano, Cardano is one of my favorites and best project that could give ma a nice profit of earns in the future and re-value the price that now is 12 cents. While in other point i use mo money's trader to accumulate Bitcoin. Also, tomorrow morning I will going to make a updates of Bitcoin price from H4 timeframe of the up.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by harisonhbn9718
5
EUR/USD is so bullish in FundementalsHello everyone, good morning. In this techncial analysis, only we are into this consolidation of this ascendent triangle that we proyect a continuation of the trend, but more important is to read, that is the better way to know how its the market. Well, in the H4 timeframe we see a bearish divergence, but I don't go to entry in there because the price as is into this chartist pattern, and as I know the trayectory of EUR that is so bullish and in the next week there are a possibibility to make this analysis in following for the next week, because there are a nice opportunity to find up more of 200 pips as EUR/USD reach the $1.15 USD. And also, that I have another position traders open that for me is important to do a risk management, and I am in profit in 3 operations that I keep open that is GBP/USD, EUR/GBP and LTC/USD. I'm in earnings in this operation. So, here below is the fundamentals that always I bring you, and also we have a PPI (MoM) of June for the par USD about the 1. Forex-Dollar edges higher as virus cases following in growup 2. EUR/USD exchange rate rises as imrpoving risk sentiment drags on Greenback 3. EUR/USD has experiment a higher on Gloomy, US economic outlook. 4. US Dollar has suffered today as risk-sentiment has imrpoved despite growing fear one a possible second wave of coronavirus cases in United States 5. Investors are hoping in favour of a new resurgence of the pandemic in a swift economic recovery, that is for US. 6. Marshall Gittler say this morning in euro exchange news.co.uk that US Dollar has a generally at the mercy of risk sentiment. 7. Euro rises despite growing concerns for the Eurozone economic recovery agains the US Dollar 8. Euro edged higher agains the greenback today despite concerns that the Eurozone's economy could be headed for a deeper reccesion than previously forecast. That is a bad indicator for long term later that US had a recuperation of the economy and the US economy is stabilizes and stop out more cases of covid-19 in most cities in USA. 9. The executive vice-president of the European Commision or called EC in the acronym, say that we could to navigate in storm waters and face many risks, including another major wave of infctions. 10. The European Commision report this morning as at the global level, the still rising rate of infections, particularly in the US and emerging markets has deteriorated the global outlook, and as expected to act as a drag on the European economy. 11. But a general lack of Eurozone economic data, Euro it's appear instead benefited from safe-haven demand as investors turn away from America's struggling economy, with the EUR being a direct competition with the US Dollar. One indicator selected that EUR is starting in 2020 as the best currency today to invest when the lower level of $!.05 USD has impressed all a up of more of near of 10% or 1,000 pips. 12. Otherpoint is traders are awaiting for tomorrow's a release of Germany's trade data. Now, if there's any marked improvement in the Eurozone's powerhouse economy's exports, then we could see the EUR/USD exchange rate continue to edge higher if we take in our hand the positive German Data. That's could be benefited the Eurzone. And the latest point is: 1. Dollar eyres multi-week lows as risk assets rally 2. China's Yuan rallieas as economy recovery So, in summary EUR it's more optimistic agains the USD, that is a potential sign that EUR reach the level above of $1.14 USD in short and mid-term at $1.15 USD as my predictions of about the satisfactory fundamentals so whats I read it. As USA continue to received mroe cases in US Hospital around of the nation, the covid-19 could be explode in the nation into this sumerge infections wave as politics decision making, US Dollar go back to undervalued and devaluated.
Long
by harisonhbn9718
1
Trade conversations, US inflation and a tough day aheadTuesday in the news plan was noted by the information that the United States excluded China from the list of currency manipulators countries. This led to yet another sigh of relief among investors that already are in a rather relaxed on the eve of the signing of the documents on the first phase of the trade agreement between the US and China. But at the same time, we did not see any significant development of the downward movement in the safe havens. This suggests that interest in the sale is beginning to decline. Plus, there was information about another attack on a military base in Iraq. So today we will continue to look for points for purchases of gold and the Japanese yen. We only note that in the first place we will not buy the yen against the dollar but against the euro. And do not forget to put your feet. The signing of a trade agreement between the US and China will take place today, which may well provoke another round of sales of safe-haven assets. So those who adhere to more conservative trading today should stay away from gold and the Japanese yen. Not that we were very worried about the growth of the dollar, but yesterday's data on consumer inflation turned out to be slightly lower than forecasts, which means we should not expect an increase in the Fed rate in current realities. And all the same, the percentage differential of the dollar-yen is several times higher than the differential of the euro-yen, so the sale of the EUR/JPY pair looks truer. Interesting fact. By excluding China from the list of manipulating countries, the United States threatened to add Switzerland there. However, the franc did not bother him and he showed the strongest growth against the euro over the past few years. Returning to yesterday's inflation statistics from the United States, we note that the probability of a rate hike in 2020 at the moment is 5%. But the chances of a decrease are about 55%. At the same time, some experts expect 3 more rate cuts in 2020. Against the backdrop of the Fed's aggression in the repo market, this does not seem to be something completely unbelievable. Which in turn makes the dollar vulnerable in the foreign exchange market. The British pound is still a great candidate for purchases against the dollar. But today you should be careful. Since it will be published a large block of statistics on the UK, which includes consumer and industrial inflation. Recall that while the pound is above 1.2960 there is no threat to purchases. The departure of the pair below this mark is a signal for a temporary exit from positions and a rebound at the low of 1.28.
Short
by Trade24Fx
So trading is headline driven... If you have been trading GBP pairs you’ve know all about the tape bombs or headline whiplash moves. It’s hard to get in a trade when a headline can just drop or jump by 100 or more pips regardless of technical setups. But we’ve somewhat known the with Brexit and any of the possibilities there of, things were going to get volatility rolling. So here is another Forex Trading Snack. At first I was caught wrong sided, then managed to get all of my losses back off a pull back trade, then missed getting in long before the next tape bomb hit... blah, blah, blah! I know! All of the should have, and could have trades, that didn’t hit! This brought my attention to the DXY and patterns I’ve been following for some time. Well today the pattern started to break down. Here is the landscape view of my DXY It is very similar to the EURUSD just inverse. Last Friday I had taken a very small long play on the EURUSD at the 1.10 level. Manage to move stops to BE ( Break even, no risk on trade ) but I’m looking to add to this position. If the DXY is breaking down it should test the 97 area, where its up channel lower trend line is currently. If or when that should happen, it would be reasonable to think the EURUSD would also test its upper trend line of a descending wedge pattern it has been in, and that is around 1.12-35 ish So long as EURUSD stays above the 1.1030 area recent resistance level I see the odds shifting to it going higher towards that 1.12. There is one question I have with the DXY index though. Just how much of it’s recent moves have only been due to GBP pairs, because they have really moved where EURUSD which is over 50% of the index hasn’t moved all that much in comparison. If you trade any idea, the risk is all yours. In trading you either make dust or you eat dust. All the best my trader warriors.
Long
by PipsTradingClub
Pattern triangule on EUR USD.... keep watching ;)The triangle can be a continuation or a reversal pattern. Although, more often it is a continuation pattern. There are three types of triangles: symmetric, ascending, and descending. For trading purposes they are all the same, the just look different. A triangle forms when the price action narrows over several price swings. If trendlines are drawn along the highs and lows of the price action, the trendlines converge towards each other. This creates the appearance of the triangle. More at: www.investopedia.com
Short
by AmiranAzaladze