Triple Your Trade Accuracy with This Simple Trick Like a PROGood Morning Tradingview,
Apologies for the delay in my recent posts over the past two days. Unfortunately, this was due to an oversight on my part. I missed a key detail in the trading platform's rules and mistakenly included my watermark on the charts. As a result, several of my posts were removed, and I was temporarily unable to post for 24 hours. I completely understand and respect the platform's guidelines, but I wanted to keep you informed and ensure you're not left wondering about my absence.
Here’s a breakdown of potential entry points and trade management based on the chart I've shared, aligned with multi-touch confirmation and The Trinity Rule. We'll focus on how to approach both the bullish and bearish scenarios with structured decision-making:
1. Bullish Scenario (Green Path):
The price currently appears to be testing a weekly trendline (third touch), which often signals a potential bullish continuation after the third touch confirms a reversal or trend continuation.
Here's how to structure the trade:
Entry Point:
Wait for a Breakout: If the price breaks and closes above the upper consolidation zone, look for a confirmed breakout with momentum. Avoid entering prematurely, as false breakouts can occur.
Confirm with Retest (Higher Probability Entry): After the breakout, wait for a potential retest of the consolidation zone or the top of the ascending wedge. A retest that holds (with rejection wicks or bullish engulfing patterns) adds confirmation for a long position.
Reduced Risk Entry: You can enter with a smaller position on the breakout and add to the position on the retest, increasing exposure as the price confirms your bias.
Stop-Loss Placement:
Place the stop-loss just below the consolidation zone or below the retested area. This level serves as your risk threshold, accounting for potential fakeouts.
If you are entering after the third touch of the trendline, the stop-loss can be placed below this key level to minimize risk.
Take-Profit Targets:
First Target: Aim for the next key resistance zone at around 2,576 based on historical price action.
Second Target: If momentum is strong, hold a portion of the trade for a larger move toward 2,592 (upper resistance). Trail the stop as price continues to move upward.
2. Bearish Scenario (Yellow Path):
If the price fails to break above the current consolidation and rejects the trendline, it indicates a potential bearish reversal. The descending path might target the 1-hour liquidity zone around 2,541, where you can expect the price to react.
Entry Point:
Breakout of Consolidation: If the price breaks below the consolidation, this signals a bearish continuation. Enter on a confirmed breakout, with a strong bearish candle close below support.
Aggressive Entry: You may consider entering on the third rejection at the top of the consolidation, especially if there's a clear bearish reversal pattern (e.g., shooting star or bearish engulfing).
Reduced Risk Entry: Wait for the price to break below the consolidation and enter on a retest of the broken support, confirming the bearish momentum. This provides a lower-risk entry with better confirmation.
Stop-Loss Placement:
Above the consolidation or the most recent swing high where rejection occurred, giving enough room for market fluctuations. Ensure that the stop isn’t too tight, as you could get caught in price noise.
Take-Profit Targets:
First Target: The 15-minute liquidity zone around 2,560 is a reasonable first target, where you may partially close your position.
Final Target: The key 1-hour liquidity zone at 2,541 is the more substantial target for a full bearish continuation. Be mindful of how price reacts near this zone; you may want to take profits before a reversal happens.
Management Tips:
Scaling In and Out: Whether bullish or bearish, consider splitting your position into smaller entries. This allows you to enter part of the trade with confirmation and add more as price action continues in your favor.
Use of Flags for Re-entries: After the initial breakout in either direction, look for flags or continuation patterns to re-enter the trade or add to an existing position. For example, after a bullish breakout, wait for a flag and enter on the next wave up.
Regular Monitoring and Adjustments: As the price moves in your favor, trail your stop-loss to lock in profits. This is especially important during strong momentum moves to avoid giving back profits to the market.
Psychological Considerations:
Avoid FOMO: Don’t rush into trades if you're unsure about the breakout or failure of a level. Let the price action confirm your bias.
Avoid Overtrading: Stick to your Rule of Three guidelines. Ensure at least three confirming factors align with your analysis before entering.
Tradingplans
Building a Trading PlanBuilding a Trading Plan
When it comes to the dynamic world of finance, a well-developed plan is the cornerstone of effective trading. Although it may seem that building trading plans is useful only for traders with little experience, a plan empowers any trader to make informed decisions. This FXOpen article will delve into how to make a trading plan that aligns with your unique goals and risk tolerance.
Setting Your Trading Goals
A personalised business plan for traders serves as a bridge between your aspirations and reality. Therefore, having a strategy that aligns with your financial goals is a must. Whether you are aiming for short- or long-term targets, your strategy will be the roadmap that guides you to them. Set clear and attainable trading goals so you don’t have to jump in over your head and worry about every little detail.
Analysing and Researching the Market
Gaining an advantage in the market starts with a comprehensive analysis. You may learn all the tools available to perform a thorough analysis to decipher market trends and patterns. You can find many useful tools on the TickTrader platform. Along with this, traders learn about the fundamental factors that potentially affect the assets they will trade. By accurately identifying opportunities, traders can move forward with confidence.
Defining Your Trading Style
Selecting a trading style that complements your goals is an important step. The first step is to reflect on your personality. Are you a risk-taker who thrives on short-term gains, or do you prefer a more measured approach? Self-awareness forms the foundation of your style. It’s also a good idea to assess how much time you can commit to trading on a daily or weekly basis.
You may start with a style that matches your initial assessment. But remember that finding the right style may require trial and error. You can trade with virtual funds on demo accounts to get a practical idea of how your chosen style works for you.
Learning Risk Management Techniques
You will need to identify the level of risk you’re comfortable with. If you align your trading approach with your risk appetite, trading will become much more comfortable. Moreover, reducing risk is a trader’s mantra. Consider setting stop-losses and take-profits.
Try to find optimal position sizing techniques, ensuring that each trade matches your risk tolerance. Diversification, a time-tested strategy, further strengthens your trading portfolio against unforeseen market fluctuations.
Testing and Optimisation of Your Plan
Practice makes perfect. At FXOpen, you can use a demo account, which allows you to practise and refine your strategy in a risk-free manner. This lets you adjust your trading plan based on actual results. Then, a great way to go is to evaluate your trading performance regularly. Through this iterative process, the strategy becomes a powerful tool that helps build traders’ most effective methods.
Trading Plan Examples
Here are two simplified examples of trading plans for different trading styles. Analyse them carefully before drawing up your own.
Example 1: Day Trading Plan — Intraday
1. Goals and Objectives
- Aim to achieve consistent daily profits.
- Maintain a win rate of at least 60%.
- Limit maximum daily loss to 2% of capital.
2. Market Analysis
Focus on technical analysis using candlestick patterns, support and resistance levels, and indicators like Moving Averages and Relative Strength Index (RSI).
3. Risk Management
- Set stop-loss at a maximum of 1% of trading capital per trade.
- Use position sizing to ensure trades are within risk tolerance.
- Avoid revenge trading after hitting the daily loss limit.
4. Trading Routine
- Start with pre-market analysis and identify potential trading opportunities.
- Trade during peak market hours to catch maximum liquidity.
- Keep a trading journal to track trades, results, and areas for improvement.
Example 2: Swing Trading Plan — Daily to Weekly
1. Goals and Objectives
- Target larger price moves and trends over several days to weeks.
- Achieve an average of 15-20% annual return.
- Limit drawdowns to no more than 10% of capital.
2. Market Analysis
- Combine technical and fundamental analysis.
- Consider macroeconomic factors and news events for a broader market context.
3. Risk Management
- Set stop-loss orders at levels that align with technical support or resistance.
- Risk no more than 2-3% of capital per trade.
- Diversify by trading different assets or industries to reduce correlation risk.
4. Trading Routine
- Conduct analysis and review trades in the evenings or over weekends.
- Monitor positions periodically but avoid over-trading.
- Keep a trading journal to assess the effectiveness of your strategy and make adjustments.
Remember that these examples are simplified and don’t cover every aspect of a comprehensive plan. You need to tailor your plan to your risk tolerance, your style, and your personal circumstances. Additionally, trading carries inherent risks, and it’s essential to understand the markets, strategies, and risk management tools before executing trades.
Final Thoughts
In this article, we discussed the steps applicable for trading with different assets, including forex, crypto*, stocks, and commodities. With the right guidance, tools and knowledge, you can create a stock trading business plan that enhances your strengths and fulfils your needs and desires.
By building a plan according to your aspirations and risk tolerance, you will have a strategy that is sustainable in the face of market volatility. And then our tools, low commissions, tight spreads and our huge variety of assets will make trading easy. Open an FXOpen account and discover a world where informed decisions determine success.
*At FXOpen UK and FXOpen AU, Cryptocurrency CFDs are only available for trading by those clients categorised as Professional clients under FCA Rules and Professional clients under ASIC Rules, respectively. They are not available for trading by Retail clients.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
The BEST Shortcut to Consistent Trades: Multi-Timeframe Magic!Here’s a **top-down analysis** of the **XAUUSD (Gold Spot)** based on the charts and liquidity zones (LQZ) , starting from the **higher timeframes** to the **lower timeframes**. This approach helps to align trade decisions with the broader market context.
1. Weekly Timeframe:
- Weekly Flag Trendline: The price is testing the upper boundary of a long-term flag pattern. This flag could be seen as a **continuation pattern** in a larger bullish market structure.
- Scenario: A breakout above this weekly flag would suggest the resumption of the broader **uptrend**, targeting significant levels around **$2,600 and higher**.
- Bearish Risk: A strong rejection from this trendline could signal a larger pullback, potentially targeting support around **$2,470** (Daily LQZ) or lower.
2. Daily Timeframe:
- Trend: The daily structure shows price building towards testing resistance at the **4-hour LQZ** of **$2,532.144**. If momentum continues, a breakout could confirm a larger bullish push.
- Daily LQZ: Located at **$2,470.804**, this is a critical support level. A break below it would signal a change in the market structure towards more bearish conditions.
3. 4-Hour Timeframe:
- **4-Hour LQZ**: Key resistance at **$2,532.144**. If this is breached, it confirms a breakout of the flag on higher timeframes, leading to a stronger bullish move. A failure to break this level could trigger a reversal back to lower support zones.
- Pattern: The current price action is consolidating near the top of the wedge, indicating indecision but with potential to resolve upwards if the breakout sustains.
4. 1-Hour Timeframe:
- Support: **1-hour LQZ** at **$2,513.704** acts as immediate support. It’s vital to monitor how price reacts around this area. A hold above this level suggests bulls remain in control.
- Entry Considerations: Watch for a clean breakout above the **weekly flag trendline** with price closing above the **4-hour LQZ** and respecting the **1-hour LQZ** during pullbacks. A break of this support may invalidate the bullish scenario, leading to downside risks.
Key Scenarios:
1. Bullish (Preferred):
- A breakout above the weekly flag pattern, supported by a breakout of the **4-hour LQZ** at **$2,532.144**, would signal a continuation of the bullish trend.
- Target higher levels around **$2,560** initially, with potential further upside towards **$2,600** if momentum remains strong.
2. Bearish (Risk Scenario):
- A failure to break the **4-hour LQZ** or a rejection at the weekly flag trendline, coupled with a break below the **1-hour LQZ** at **$2,513.704**, could lead to a move lower.
- Targets for shorts would include the **Daily LQZ** at **$2,470.804**, with further downside to **$2,420** and **$2,402** if bearish momentum builds.
Confluence Factors:
- The alignment between the **weekly flag breakout** and price respecting **lower timeframe LQZ** levels will be crucial for confirming a sustained trend.
- Conversely, any rejection and failure to hold these levels could shift bias towards downside risks.
Conclusion:
This **top-down analysis** favors a **bullish breakout**, but careful monitoring is required at critical resistance levels. Risk should be managed tightly around the **1-hour and 4-hour LQZs** to confirm trend direction.
Are you ready to quit your job and join crypto full-time? You need to understand that most of the beautiful posts about the amazing life of a traders, airdrop hunters are complete nonsense and "fake it till you make it" life! Most people lose money in trading, and this applies not only to the crypto market! Therefore, on the channel we do not talk about stupid things like tothemoon, uponly, super-profitable meme tokens and other nonsense! Ask yourself the question, are you ready to quit your job and go into full-time trading or full-time work with cryptocurrency! These can be nodes, an accounts farm for airdrops, content creation, work in a crypto project, be the meme token degen, trading.
A few key questions that you need to honestly ask yourself
1. Do you have a extra cash for several months, if, for example, the first six months, you will not be able to make a profit from cryptocurrency?
2. How old are you and what are your expenses? After all, the responsibility for income when you have a family and children is much bigger than when you are 20 years old and you can live peacefully with responsibility only for yourself!
3. Do you have enough experience for regular trading, do you have an understanding of the market, if, for example, we will trade in a downward trend for 2-3 years and investments will not be able to generate income, but only trading! Do you have a deposit to work with!? Lets be real! Start with 100$ and trade every day with x50 lev its not a good idea and plan! One day all this succesefull signal channels and traders just drawdown their accounts, but they got a lot of money from Discords, memecoins alllocations! So be real with initial deposit!
4. How are things going with storing funds, diversification, risk management and money management! Do you have a strategy and a plan for what exactly you will do every day?
5. Do you have skills outside the market, what will you do if your plan does not work? Will you be able to quickly find a job to restore the deposit and try again
6. Are you mentally ready to work every day in this area now? After all, now you will have a lot of time, without a boss and a stable fixed payment at the end of the month! Do you know how to plan your day and work! Are you a disciplined and balanced person, because emotional decisions and trading on fear or greed can ruin your entire deposit!
7. Do you have a plan in case of a black swan in the world, a new pandemic, a financial collapse or abrupt regulation of cryptocurrency in your region!
Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch!
✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes.
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• Look at my ideas about interesting altcoins in the related section down below ↓
• For more ideas please hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Mastering High Probability Trading Across All AssetsGreetings Traders!
Welcome back to today’s video! In this session, we're revisiting the critical concept of draw on liquidity. I'll guide you on how to take advantage of it with extreme market precision, focusing on when to trade, when to avoid the market, and how to increase your chances of high-probability trade outcomes.
If you're looking to enhance your trading strategy and make smarter decisions, this video is for you. Let's dive in and start mastering these concepts!
Refer to these videos as well:
Premium Discount Price Delivery in Institutional Trading:
Mastering Institutional Order-Flow Price Delivery
Quarter Theory Mastering Algorithmic Price Movements:
Best Regards,
The_Architect
World gold price increased sharply to 2,477 USD/ounceThe price of gold traded on the world market this afternoon, August 13, stood at 2,462.1 USD/ounce, down 11.8 USD/ounce compared to the morning session. Gold futures price was at 2,500.8 USD/ounce, down 8.3 USD/ounce compared to the morning session. Thus, with this morning's trading session, world gold decreased.
Having received support for the gold price trend, some experts believe that the US Federal Reserve (FED) will provide monetary policy at the upcoming meeting, also supporting the price increase forum. of these precious metals. According to CME group's FedWatch interest rate tracking tool, the market is pricing in a 49% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points next September.
The current gold market goes up and down very quickly, making it difficult for traders to choose a direction in the short term, but experts still expect that gold will increase in price by the end of the year.
AUDUSD | Trading Plan | 15m15m:
A bearish Break of Structure (BoS) is clearly visible after the buy-side liquidity sweep.
I've marked the bearish leg and identified a valid supply zone.
I'm now waiting for a sell-side liquidity sweep to enter a long position until market mitigates the above supply zone.
After the supply zone is mitigated or buy-side lq sweep, will wait for a bearish confirmation appears on the 15m chart, I'll look for a short position again.
"Primarily, we need to focus on opportunities during kill zones and ignore any setups outside of these times."
Taking On Discipline In StagesOnce you have decided that you need discipline in your trading, knowing where to start can be difficult and overwhelming. There are many pieces to a trading plan, and it's easy to feel overwhelmed.
You can break the task into manageable sections and master one discipline at a time, or focus on the the discipline you need. This approach makes the process more manageable and ensures that each aspect of your trading strategy is given the attention it deserves.
Trading Plan Components: Each of these sections should have objective rules so there isn't any escape room.
Method Rules
Entry Rules
Stop Rules
trailing Stop Rules
Exit Rules
Journaling
Trade Plan for TME, COIN
Shane
GOLD - at DO or DIE area, whats next?#GOLD.. perfect move as per our video analysis and congratulations to all,
our expected area placed and now that is our DO or DIE area.
now the area is 2410 11 that area can change the overall scenarios.
keep close the area and you can see in history market made same pattern. dont be lazy here. \
good luck
trade wisely
#BTCUSDT - near his resistance? Hold or not??#BTCUSDT.. so our last idea about BTC was perfect. And now market again near to his resistance area for now.
That is around 61800 to 62000 plus.
Keep close that resistance area because if market hold it in that case again drop expected from here.
Good luck
trade wisely
Live Gold Trade Analysis: Catching the Breakout! Did I Miss It?Key Levels and Zones:
4hr LQZ (Liquidity Zone):
Marked at around 2437.909 - 2440.000.
This is a higher timeframe liquidity zone which often acts as a strong resistance or support level.
1hr TP 4 / LQZ:
Marked at 2419.433.
This level is a target point or liquidity zone on the 1-hour chart, indicating a significant level where price may react.
15M LQZ (Liquidity Zone):
Marked at 2404.619.
This is a key level on the 15-minute chart, suggesting an area where there is liquidity, and price may find support or resistance.
LQZ 1hr:
Marked at 2396.143.
Another liquidity zone on the 1-hour chart, which acts as an important support or resistance area.
Other Levels:
2390.821
2386.644
2379.627
Chart Patterns and Movements:
The price has shown a significant rise recently, breaking through multiple levels of resistance.
There is a noticeable ascending channel marked with blue dashed lines, indicating an overall uptrend on this timeframe.
The highlighted blue zone around 2390.821 - 2396.143 indicates a previous consolidation or support area that has now been broken through.
The most recent price action shows a pullback after hitting the 1hr TP 4 / LQZ level at 2419.433.
Key Observations:
The price is currently hovering around the 15M LQZ at 2404.619, which could act as immediate support.
The significant rise and sharp move up might indicate a bullish momentum in the short term.
The break above the blue highlighted zone suggests that the price might find support here if it pulls back.
Potential Trading Strategies:
Bullish Scenario:
If the price holds above the 15M LQZ at 2404.619, consider looking for buying opportunities with targets at higher liquidity zones such as 2419.433 and beyond.
A break above 2419.433 could further validate the uptrend, aiming for the next liquidity zones.
Bearish Scenario:
If the price fails to hold above 2404.619 and breaks below, consider looking for selling opportunities targeting the next support levels at 2396.143, 2390.821, and lower.
Range Trading:
If the price consolidates between 2404.619 and 2419.433, consider trading within this range, buying near support and selling near resistance.
BANKNIFTY : Trading Levels and Plan for 09-Jul-2024
On 08-Jul-2024, the NiftyBank Index exhibited a consolidation pattern with a slight bullish inclination towards the closing hours. Key levels were established, including a strong resistance zone around 53,521 and a significant support zone around 52,126. The market showed signs of indecision, indicating potential volatility for the upcoming session.
Trading Plan for 09-Jul-2024:
Gap Up Opening (200+ points above 52,492):
If the market opens above 52,692, observe the price action near the opening resistance at 52,859.
A rejection from this level could signal a shorting opportunity targeting 52,492, with a stop-loss above 52,900.
If the price sustains above 52,900, look for buying opportunities targeting the resistance for a new high at 53,049, with a stop-loss below 52,800.
In case of a strong bullish momentum, trailing stop-losses can be placed as the price approaches the profit booking zone at 53,521.
Flat Opening (near 52,492):
Monitor the opening price action around 52,492.
If the price breaks below 52,470, look for shorting opportunities towards the buyers' support at 52,126, with a stop-loss above 52,520.
Conversely, if the price shows strength and moves above 52,520, consider long positions targeting the opening resistance at 52,859, with a stop-loss below 52,470.
Gap Down Opening (200+ points below 52,492):
If the market opens below 52,292, closely watch the price action around the buyers' support at 52,126.
A bounce from this level can be used for long positions targeting 52,492, with a stop-loss below 52,030.
If the price fails to hold above 52,126 and moves towards 52,030, consider shorting opportunities towards the best buy zone at 51,681, with a stop-loss above 52,200.
Summary and Conclusion:
The Nifty Bank Index is poised for potential volatility on 09-Jul-2024, given the consolidation pattern observed on 08-Jul-2024. Key levels to watch include 52,859 on the upside and 52,126 on the downside. Trading opportunities exist for both bullish and bearish scenarios, with appropriate stop-losses to manage risk. Be prepared for quick market moves and adjust your strategy accordingly based on the price action at critical levels.
Disclaimer:
I am not a SEBI registered analyst. This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as trading advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.
HAPPY TRADING
BTCUSDT - only one support, holding or not?#BTCUSDT.. well guys market again at his most awaited and most important support of monthly and weekly chart.
That is around 58000
Keep close it.
In first go market perfectly hold it and now in 2nd go market again at 58000
That is only support of Bitcoin that can change the scnerio.
If market hold it then all ok but if market clear that level the. It will be very expensive.
Good luck
Trade wisely
SRF/SWING TRADE # PRICE LOOKING BACK TO PREVIOUS TREND
#PRICE TRADING IN A PATTERN
# TAKING SUPPORT FROM MA 21 MA 50 EMA 21
#SL 2370
ALWAYS TAKE RISK REWARDS INTO ACCOUNT. IT IS THE CORE STRENGTH OF TRADING.
NO MATTER WHAT END OF THE DAY WHAT YOU EARN - WHAT YOU LOSE =RETURNS
"Investing in the stock market involves balancing risk and reward. Higher potential returns typically come with higher risk, while safer investments may offer lower returns. It's essential to assess your risk tolerance and investment goals carefully. Diversifying your portfolio can help manage risk. Remember, informed decisions and a long-term perspective are key to navigating the complexities of the market."
GOLD - one n only support, holding or not??#GOLD... a perfect move is going on according to our video analysis and as you can see market perfectly hold 2 times 2331 32 and dropped.
and our last day supporting area 2321 is still valid guys don't take it easy,
a triangle is also on table. keep close the tringle.
TECHNICAL:
2321 is one of the most important on chart in hour and 4 hours chart. in yesterday market perfectly hold it and now again hat is your area, short only below that area with mentioned tp's
good luck
trade wisely
GOLD - there is only single support, hold or not??#GOLD... a perfect move is going on according to our video analysis and as you can see market perfectly hold 2 times 2331 32 and dropped.
and our last day supporting area 2321 is still valid guys don't take it easy,
TECHNICAL:
2321 is one of the most important on chart in hour and 4 hours chart. in yesterday market perfectly hold it and now again hat is your area, short only below that area with mentioned tp's
good luck
trade wisely
UPL :: Turning around to (Agrow)Chemical Stock? - It's been decades we have seen that AgriCulture is contributing almost about 18-20% in India's GDP growth yet this sector remains to be more politically inclined to their specific actions during major elections.
- GDP contribution by Top 3 sectors:
Agriculture: 18.4%
Industry: 28.3%
Services: 53.3%
- NSE:UPL is one of the top 5 global providers of total agricultural solutions with a footprint in 138+ countries.
Going by the current situation we see the following observations -
1) Script is trading at a Money-based range dating back to the pandemic lows after hitting 52W Lows due to global headwinds.
2) After a stellar doubler move from Dec'20 to May'21 the script delivered almost more than 100% return to its investors and eventually we see a exhaustion after an eventual double top like pattern with a neckline candle marked in a red zone.
3) Interestingly, you see a SWAP LEVEL marked to denote the beautiful Yearly Low of 2021 being protected for next 2yrs and finally breaks down nearing ending of 2022 while being in a range of 200p within the red zone and swap level for that existing period.
4) While, we talked about price action in the previous point we missed out the lethal info being nudged in by our FUNDFLUX tool which showed consistent outflow of money in first 2Q's of 2022 before it out the swap level in Q3 of 2022.
5) What happens next will make you understand why we call the marked blue dotted line as the "Swap level" as after the breakdown we see a retest of the same level now turning out to be a resistance for script and eventually the Yearly Pivot Level of 2024 .
6) Now, currently the script trades in a good money-based range eventually dodging out YL4 breakdown and here the risk seems to be minimum as per the return is concerned as after 510-520 the script will be ripped for 640-650 initial target making a return of 30-35% in cash from entry being in the marked money-based green range and it can be in news in this quarter as elections are nearing and as said in the beginning - "AgriCulture" will be on one of the top agendas of the political parties and alongside if we see a relief from destocking and price revisions in the West after the much anticipated rate cuts then it will be an icing on the cake for the script as margins will improve in the coming quarterly results and lastly monsoon season is about to begin in India in a month and till now SKYMET expects Monsoon to be 'normal' in India.
A RELEVANT ARTICLE -
www.livemint.com
THE KOG REPORTTHE KOG REPORT
In last week’s KOG Report we said we would be looking for more downside movement on Gold and gave the weekly bias level of 2335 with targets below 2310 and below that 2395. We also informed traders to watch out for the extension of the move into that 2340 which is where we ideally wanted to short the market for the bigger capture. We suggested early longs into the levels above, and once there we confirmed the move not only did we get the long trades, we got the opportunity to take that short trade all the way back down to complete the bias level targets. It’s at this lower level we suggested taking the early long back up, again netting a fantastic return, following Excalibur all the way to where we closed the month.
During the week, we also update traders on the intra-day movement highlighting the levels to look for RIPs and opportunities to capture the counter movement, which also worked extremely well completing a fantastic week for the free analysis, but a phenomenal week on Gold targets in Camelot.
Well done to our community and team for another great month of completed targets.
So, what can we expect in the week ahead?
We’ll start by saying it’s the first week of a month and quarter, so best practice would be letting the market settle for the new month, especially the first few days. We also have a lot of news this week which is guaranteed to drive the markets to extreme levels aggressively, coupled with choppy price action. New traders really should be sitting out with the attitude that cash in your account is a position in the market, a very strategic one!
Although we ended the month with a bullish daily, we’re not seeing any confirmed movement to complete the upside levels as yet! So, we’ll begin the week with caution and look at the immediate levels of support sitting around the 2313 and above that 2317 levels. If we begin the week with an attack on those levels and face strong support, it’s here we may get an opportunity to long back up into that 2330 -35 region with the extension of the move again the 2345-50 price point, which for this week is our bearish below level. This level above if targeted is important, as breaking above here will take us back up to target that 2270-75 region, which believe it or not, is still in this range! It is however these higher levels we want to be monitoring closely for signs of rejection, and if we get them we feel there is an opportunity to short again from higher up into the lower levels as suggested on the chart. We have our active targets and the prices we’re looking for but would suggest level to level trading for this week at least, with tight stops!
We’re going to keep it simple this week and say that’s the main move we’re looking for unless we break below 2316-20 and hold, in which case the plan completes before we get any more opportunities to add to shorts from higher again.
KOG’s Bias for the week:
Bearish below 2345-50 with targets below 2310 and below that 2290
Bullish on break of 2345 with targets above 2360 and above that 2370
We’ve added the key levels on the charts for you this week with the text, “Bearish below, Bullish above etc” which we hope will help you stay in the right direction and manage your trades.
As usual, we will update you with our plans and wish you a successful week ahead.
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
KOG - "Fail to plan, plan to fail" Traders,
The market is designed to confuse retail traders, the reason for that is they know 95% of you enter these markets with no plan. You’re not aware of the levels, you’re not charting the pairs you trade, and you lack the basic skills to manage your money and your risk. You need to have a plan before you enter a trade, you need to have a strict set of rules, and everything should line up as much as possible before you take the entry. By the time new traders understand they need a plan, they’ve blown their accounts and blame the markets.
Every trader, before they start their day needs to have a strict set of rules they abide by before entering the markets for a trade. There are many variations and most will have their own rules, but to start you off here are a few we set out for our traders. They're not uncommon, simple steps to take to keep you safe in the markets.
Is the market ranging or trending?
We have to adapt our trading style in accordance with what the market is doing. If it’s a trending market, we know we have a clear direction on the pair and we know the levels of the trend as well as the levels that are provided. We then add the target to this and now have a clearer understanding of where price may support or resist before continuing the trend. When the market is ranging, we adapt our trading style knowing that we’re going to experience a lot of choppy price action as well as extreme up and down swings. We plot the range, we add the levels, and we now have a clearer understanding of support and resistance as well as the range high and low. When the range breaks and confirms the break, you know whether you should be entering or getting out of a trade. Holding on to hope will kill your account and you will then blame the market.
Are there key levels above or below?
Key levels on a chart are really important to understand. You need to add the levels on the long term charts and the levels on the short term charts. This gives you an idea of where price may go before it either supports or resist the price. It also tells you whether price is going to continue in the direction if the key level breaks and the turns into either support or resistance. You can now plan, if the price continues into that level how much will my account be in drawdown, will I be able to hold, do I need to hedge, should I take the loss and switch direction. Holding on to your bias and hope will very likely kill your account, you’ll then blame the market.
How much capital am I risking?
You need to treat this as a business, no matter what your account size. Every day there are large institutions who want to take your money away from you, you’re in this market to take from them and give them as little as possible. You should have a risk model in place, am I going to risk a certain percentage of my account? Am I going to stick to a stop loss of a certain amount of pips? Am I going to have a risk reward that makes sense? Your stop loss and risk management plan is your best friend in this market, it allows you to limit the losses and live to trade another day. It also allows you to trade with a fresh mind everyday because you’re not holding on to hope. Traders fail because they don’t have a risk model, they then get stuck in a drawdown which doesn’t allow them to trade because they’re waiting the entries that are in drawdown to come back into the price range. Cut your losses early, if you’re wrong you’re wrong, don’t let your ego right checks your butt can’t cash! Holding on to losing trades with no risk model will likely blow your account, you’ll then blame the market.
Are there any new events?
News events can move the markets in a very aggressive way but will move the price into the levels that you should already have added to your charts. News brings volume and a lot of traders will use this to their advantage to either scalp or to get good entries on the pairs they trade. It’s best practice to not trade before the news releases unless you’re already in the right way of the market. “The trade always comes after the event”, wait for the price to be taken to the level they want to either buy and sell, wait for a confirmed reversal on the smaller time frames, once everything lines up, then look to take an entry. Trading news events comes with years of practice, it also takes a lot of discipline and the ability to manage risk, not only that but you have to be willing to switch your bias in an instance if you get it wrong. Most traders lack this experience, trade news events like it’s a normal day on the markets and then blow their accounts in one hit, you’ll then blame the market.
Am I following my trading plan?
“Fail to plan, plan to fail”. As above, you need to plan every single trade you take, make sure the market conditions are in your favour, make sure the price is at the right levels, make sure your risk model is in place, make sure you’re aware of the risks involved if it doesn’t go your way. By doing all of this and making a plan, you know what the worst case scenario will be, by knowing that you’re emotions and psychology won’t be affected that much and you will build your confidence. You’ll then develop your strategy and you’ll have a better understanding of what kind of ROI you can consistently make in the markets. Have the discipline to follow your plan and stick to it like a you’re a robot. Get used to taking losses, this is part of the game you’re in. Your wins just need to be bigger and you’re on your way to becoming a consistent trader. Most traders don’t follow their plan, they then blow their accounts and you’ll blame the market.
Hope this helps at least some of you stay the right side of the markets and we wish you the very best in your trading career.
As always, trade safe.
KOG