Get started

Tradingrange

BTCUSD 1H chart (5/2/2019)Good morning traders. Price continues to grind higher as expected with short sellers rigorously defending their positions above $5400 and $5600 but demand remaining relentless. As a result, price has now pushed through the blue TR's resistance. Having hit our first target, multiple targets still remain based on the patterns formed over the past week or so. The next target at $5435 is based on the ascending triangle and allows price to fill in the Bitstamp 1H gap at $5392.75 that was left as price dropped after the Tether news. But don't get too excited about shorting there as the CME Bitcoin futures gap remains at $5500 with the CME price tracking Bitstamp's price almost exactly. Would it be wise to short there? Here's the thing, price hitting $5500 necessarily puts recent short sellers under water. With Bitfinex Shorts showing bearish divergence in highly overbought territory (with Stoch RSI recently topped out) and Bitfinex Longs just now leaving oversold (with Stoch RSI recently bottomed out) a sudden price move toward $5500 has a good chance of initiating a local short squeeze. But, as mentioned before, this would likely push price into the $5600s which would most likely begin a much larger short squeeze of November 2018 short positions. Shorts they have reached their double bottom target and Longs are printing a descending wedge of which they are recently bouncing off the bottom. A quick look at this 1H chart shows us that price is currently finding support on the TR's resistance but it is also nearing the ascending channel's support. If that support fails to hold, then we could potentially see price targeting $5200/$5220 at the top of the demand zone. However, I would expect to see a bounce from there. If the support holds, then we should expect to see price target the top of the ascending channel which gets it to that $5500 level at the EQ of the November supply as well as just above the R2 pivot. This continues to seem like the most likely move, but traders who are entering in this area absolutely must have a good grasp of risk management otherwise they are gambling at best whether they are longing or shorting here. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD 4H chart (5/1/2019)Good morning traders. We saw a good daily candle print yesterday and are on our way to possibly confirming the checkmate pattern that I have been discussing. Ideally, I'd like to see another good daily candle close today, preferably at $5400 or higher. We had a good weekly close, keeping price within a narrow trading range and recovering the previous week's loses, but we had a great monthly close as well. So far, we are seeing price take a bit of a breather after tagging the top of the month-long blue TR. In doing so, price has moved beyond our first target. The 4H RSI appears to be testing its previous ascending resistance as support while price tests the pivot as support. We continue to see demand showing up over the course of the past 6 hours as witnessed by the lower wicks on the current and previous candles. There is a strong defense of $5400 happening right now, most likely put on by those who shorted just above that level, but price continues to be bid up well. If price continues through $5400, then the defense at $5600 is the remaining wall. A convincing move through this latter level should see price easily pushing into $6000. I would be concerned about failed upward progression if price falls below the demand at $5130. However, that doesn't mean that price necessarily must drop to $4000 and below from there. Rather, traders should pay attention to price action and volume as price approaches the bottom of the blue TR. Weak supply on a move down would suggest a possible Spring printing just below the TR followed by price moving back toward the top of that TR. As you are aware, I have been expecting May to be a retracement month, however it is possible we could see price spend most of the month moving sideways. I remain long at this time. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD 4H/1D charts (4/30/2019)Good morning, traders. It appears that we are getting some action this morning as price popped out of a few patterns and is testing the resistance of another. Tomorrow is the monthly close. This movement is not unexpected at all if you've been following my analysis. Price action and volume analysis across multiple TFs have suggested that this is the most likely movement, but can demand follow through? Price is now above the 21 EMA on the 4H chart once again, as well as being at the top of the HVN. It still remains a bit below the 4H pivot, though. So far, 4H RSI is trending within the ascending channel it printed. A fall through the channel support would most likely signal downward price progression. If the daily RSI pushes through its descending resistance, traders should be looking at higher targets. There are four targets based on the patterns. The first is just above that pivot at $5265 and is based on the height of the red descending channel. The second is $5435 and will come into play once price exits through the purple ascending triangle's resistance. This second target is also at the ascending dotted channel's EQ. The third is $5660 and is based on the height of the red descending broadening wedge. This third target also puts price at the November 18th high which is important because continued movement above it sets into motion the possibility of liquidating the shorts initiated there at that time. The fourth target is at $5918 and is based on the height of the large blue TR, but will not activate until price closes above that upper blue horizontal line at the top of the TR. Will price make it to that fourth target and then be rejected, or will it continue toward $6300 and get rejected at the HVN? Nobody knows for sure, but the HVN argument makes a lot of sense. I have explained the higher targets over the past few weeks so feel free to look back through my previous analysis. The possible checkmate pattern that I discussed yesterday should have price targeting the $5510 level, where it began, if it plays out. After the recent high almost taking out the whole of supply in that area, it doesn't seem likely that there will be enough supply there to suppress price if it gets to that level. The is a lot of defending of the $5200-$5300 level still happening suggesting that there are possibly some strongly over-leveraged shorts sitting just above. A sudden move above $5300 might just set them off causing a small squeeze toward the other cluster of shorts in the $5600 area which could lead to a much larger squeeze. However, the longer it takes price to get moving up that way, the less likely the squeeze becomes as traders start getting nervous and exiting their short positions. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
2
BTCUSD 4H chart (CME 4H chart also) 4/29/2019Good morning, traders. We have had a rather uneventful weekend which has been upsetting to many as the market has not provided direction. Tether Bitcoin pairs continue to print a premium over USD Bitcoin pairs. CME futures printed a gap at $5500 which will need to be filled, however this could come after price moves down first. Bitstamp has a 1H gap around $5400 as well. Price is not looking particularly strong at this time, however as price drops to $5100 the order books flash strong bids so we may be seeing retail selling into professional hands at that level. Currently, the daily candle has gapped down at $5161 so I expect that if we do drop it won't be long-lived. The recent weekly close printed a candle spread almost identical to the previous week's, just ending where that previous week began, and the weekly remains bullish at 55.5 at this time, though Stoch RSI is still overbought but finally falling. We can see price has crossed above the EQ of the descending channel which is usually considered bullish. If price pushes through the channel's resistance then we should be expecting a target of $5800-$5900, depending on when it happens, based on the height of the channel. Price has remained on the topside of the TR as it continues to print higher lows overall. So the move up mentioned ultimately would result in a target between $5900 and $6000, based on the height of the TR. Of course this is all in addition to the older targets from larger patterns that we have previously discussed. In the near term, a close above $5206 should get the ball rolling on greater appreciation and would have price targeting the top of the ascending channel that it may current be printing, as well as have price exiting the descending channel and TR. Everything else aside, the blue TR is the dominant pattern that traders should be watching. Secondary is the descending channel that price has been printing since the recent high. And third is the ascending channel within that descending channel. We have the monthly close tomorrow, so price may continue more sideways than anything else through that time. I have continued to mention that we are either at, or near, the top of this third wave and trying to trade this is often futile for most traders because they tend to hold for a big move and then get liquidated or scared off due to the noise before it happens. For most traders, this is not the time to be in a trade. It's best to wait for confirmation of this upward movement to be completed and then go long at the completion of the corrective wave 4. My final thought is in regard to a short squeeze. There's a lot of talk about it due to the significant increase in shorts, their overbought level, and the strong shorts-to-long ratio, as well as the longs oversold level. Since short squeezes most often happen at support, we would need to consider the blue TR's EQ as support. But what else should have us considering that this may occur? We have printed three daily dojis after that strong drop. As a matter of fact, the daily chart, starting from the recent high, looks a lot like a checkmate pattern (can also see this on the 4H chart). The large candle's low at $4991.42 has not been reached since the initial drop last Thursday. Instead, price has been trapped in a narrow trading range of about $150 on top of the TR's EQ (i.e. support level). Confirmation of this pattern would be 1-2 strong bullish candles. The short squeeze wouldn't fully commence until around $5700, but the shorts that piled up just a few hundred dollars above the current price could be the fuel to get price to that level. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
XBTUSD 4H/1H charts (4/25/2019)Good morning, traders. Imagine thinking price hit the high and shorting already. Or worse yet, remaining short and not buying the dip yesterday. Of course this is only a sad predicament if you believe price will head higher before heading lower. I continue to remain long at this time. Nothing has changed, in the larger picture, to warn me that I need to exit my long yet. The 4H chart shows price doing what it was expected to do as part of the re-accumulation scenario. RSI continues to be supported by the ascending line and Stoch RSI has crossed bullishly but is still well in oversold territory. Price is currently testing the top of the resistance level, which marks the top of the TR as shown, while printing a flag. If we take the flagpole as the length from the ST Area to the SOS, then a breakout through the flag's resistance would set up a target at purple ascending channel's resistance around $6300. The 1H chart shows a potential triple double bottom in the local TR with a target of ~$5615. A close above $5485 would confirm the pattern. This triple bottom is printing after the recent triple top and marks the target of that triple top pattern. Once price clears the descending channel's/flag's resistance, that opens up the much higher target mentioned earlier. With shorts continuing to rise, we can assume that a break above the horizontal red line will begin a short squeeze that could propel price toward the upper target. That $5690 level is the swing high of the supply created in November after price broke down through $6000, and there is little-to-no market interest until around $6300 which aligns with the flag's target. The vertical red line denotes tomorrow's CME April Bitcoin Futures expiry, with the blue vertical line denoting May's, and the green vertical line denoting June's. As mentioned yesterday, bearish divergence is printing on the daily chart. This would seem to suggest that price should be headed down, however wave structure, patterns, the large ascending channel, and the re-accumulation zone seem to suggest the final pop up before a retracement. It does not guarantee it though. In either case, if you are already in a trade or are thinking about entering one, you should have two plans: the first is your exit if price takes the path you think it will and the second is your exit if price takes the path you don't think it will. If you do not have both plans in place, then you shouldn't be in a trade because you will most likely trade emotionally, especially if price moves against you, and trading emotionally loses money. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by Chris_Inks
XBTUSD 4H chart (4/24/2019)Good morning, traders. I see a lot of traders are very disturbed by this small move down and, as a result, reversing their calls this morning. Yet it's exactly what I said was likely to happen. With the break out of the 4H TR being the SOS, the odds were high to return to the TR and test it as support to complete the BUEC/LPS before printing another, higher, SOS. I have mentioned numerous times that traders should not be paying attention to the short TFs right now. You should be zooming out to the 4H and larger TFs if you want to see what's really going on. There's too much noise in this area, for most traders, to remain zoomed in. You can also likely identify the local 30 minute/1H TR as reaccumulation with a spring which usually appears weak (hence the spring). I'll be discussing this in this morning's video update. I had some requests to chart on BitMex rather than the usual Bitstamp, so make sure you are aware that Mex is the chart this time around. The 4H chart shows price's return to the TR's resistance to test it as support. We can see the 21 EMA continuing to provide support, as well as the HVN. The 4H RSI bounced off its own ascending support and Stoch RSI just dipped into oversold. Yes, there is a possible tweezer top pattern printing on the daily, but we still have more than 1/3 of the daily candle remaining before close so it's much too early to give it any significance. With the move down overnight, I'd watch the shorter TFs to see if price is gearing up to retrace that move. The 1H and lower TFs are suggesting such a retracement at this time with the 2H Stoch RSI recently bouncing off the bottom of oversold and nearing a bullish cross. Price breaking back above the top of the 4H TR's resistance area/R1 pivot at $5474 would be a bullish signal, whereas dropping below the 4H pivot at $5210 would require traders to take another look at price action. Bitfinex Shorts are printing bearish divergence on the 4H TF while the Longs are well into oversold on that same TF. A large retracement to the downside should see Shorts piling on and Longs dropping off, so this current situation seems to be suggesting that we will see price rising rather than dropping in the near term. As such, my upper targets that I have been discussing for a while now remain in play. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD 1D chart (4/23/2019)Good morning, traders. If you are with us in Discord, then you know that Bitcoin's move over night hit the third target that we had based on the Dragon harmonic pattern. It also hit last night's triangle target and a bit more, while sitting up the golden cross. As long as price remains elevated through the daily close, that cross should happen. This Show of Strength (SOS) confirmed the recent blue TR as accumulation with an uprise, as I have been mentioning it appeared to be for almost two weeks now. Finally, price has tapped just above the daily supply creating that swing high over night as well. While increasing numbers of traders continue to pile into the "sell everything, it's going to crash right now" corner, it seems more likely that price will continue higher toward the targets we have outlined previously. The argument from the "sky is falling" group is that price is fatigued, however daily RSI and Stoch RSI do not agree with that analysis. The former is barely overbought at 75.6 and the latter has just recently moved out of oversold. That combination generally means that price has more steam left in the tank. Currently, RSI and MACD are printing possible bearish divergence, but since the upward movement hasn't completed yet we could see those indicators continue to rise with price. In other words, the divergence hasn't definitively been printed yet, but it needs to be watched. At this time, I am watching the November 18, 2018 swing high at $5658.47 (red line). I believe a push through that level should trigger another short squeeze and see price targeting the EQ of the supply, at the least, which would complete a full retrace of the November shakeout. A look at the VPVR on the right side of the chart shows that there is little interest for traders until around that area. CME Bitcoin futures expiry happens on Friday, and if they're net long then we can likely expect some added push to get price as high as possible before that time. If you measure the flagpole from the break through the log resistance line, then the target (green) for that pennant pattern is also at that same area. Price has been printing an ascending channel, as we have been watching for a while now, and a move through that channel's resistance should target (blue) the same general area in the supply that I mentioned. If price hits this level, then we would likely expect price to retrace toward $5200/$5300 for wave 4, before completing wave 5 above $7000. Wave 2 took about 1.5 months to complete, so we can expect wave 4 to likely take about 4 weeks, possibly aligning with CME Bitcoin futures May expiry to complete short through the month and then long into June. We can probably expect to see alts finally making some gains again during May, if this scenario holds true. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
3
BTCUSD D1 chart (4/22/2019)Good morning, traders. If you watched my last video update on that other social media site that Tradingview won't allow me to mention, then you know that I had two possible symmetrical triangles that may be printing on the daily TF. There is the immediate one that I drew on last Friday's TV update, but then I discussed the possibility of a slightly larger one where this current movement is still part of wave D with a small move down for wave E remaining before the final thrust up to complete wave 3. In either case, that should provide a $6400-$6700 target. Remember, that target is derived as the height of the flagpole from the pennant breakout, so the range is there for now as we figure out which triangle is printing. Also, the higher wave 3 completes, the more bullish price becomes as the likelihood of the $6000 level providing support increases. As mentioned on Friday, a move up like this would continue to build the case for a comparison to gold's correction. And, if so, then you can likely remove all hope of sub-$5000 prices again as wave 5 would target $7400-$8000 and the $6000 level would, then, provide support once more. With D1 ETHUSD currently printing a triangle and D1 LTCUSD printing a descending wedge, both of which are nearing breakout, why would you continue to short Bitcoin? It makes absolutely no sense. We are currently printing our 4th daily doji candlestick in a row, just under $5300. Volume has continued to drop as expected due to price's range becoming tighter. You can see the higher lows building toward resistance at the top of the daily TR. I have both possible running contracting triangle resistances noted: the first in black and the second in red. CME Bitcoin futures expire on Friday, April 26th. I warned earlier this month of the possibility of price moving sideways through the end of the month as price consolidated before breaking out. The question is, are you still in the disbelief stage or have you accepted that Bitcoin is bullish? While movement in the markets is never guaranteed, I see very little, and continually dwindling, support for any bearish scenario at this time. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD 4H chart (4/19/2019)Good morning, traders. Many were scared off by yesterday evening's little drop. As we can see, price bounced just above the pivot closing above the 21 EMA once more. The short double bottom target, of the swing high denoted by the purple line/R1 pivot, remains at this time. The 4H Stoch RSI is nearing a bullish cross in oversold. RSI remains bullish at 56.8. The ascending dotted channel suggests that once price closes above its EQ, we should then see it targeting the channel's resistance. If price breaks through that resistance, then we should see it targeting the R4 pivot, around $6270, based on the channel's height. There is one more possibility -- that price has been printing a running contracting triangle as a pennant, which I will explain in greater detail during this morning's video. But what that means is that we could then expect to see a possible target of around $6800, at the top of the supply zone, based on the height of the flagpole leading up to that triangle/pennant. I know that such a suggestion hits the "outlandish" button for many traders, and I am not stating that we will definitely get there, but it is a possibility that's based on current price action so it can't be ignored. While it would violate the strongly-held emotional bias of the strength of $6000 as resistance which much of cryptotwitter holds dear, traders must consider that if enough accumulation has occurred, then it is possible for price to push through that level with more ease than expected. As such, traders would find it detrimental to ignore the level of likely FOMO that would ensue in such a situation as traders rush to get their orders in once they see $6000 falling instead of price being rejected as expected. This would follow the gold pattern that we have looked at before, and which I will discuss during this morning's video once more as well. It's up to you, as the analyst, to decide just how likely you think such a scenario is. I remain long at this time. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
1
BTCUSD 1H/1D charts (4/18/2019)Good morning, traders. Price continues to push up gradually. Our targets remain as shown in the charts. As mentioned yesterday, the current TR as drawn on the daily appears to be reaccumulation with an uprise with an immediate target of $5910/15 based on the height of the TR, on the larger TF. The 1H chart has price printing an ascending wedge as it looks to target the blue line which is based on the height of the double bottom. 1H RSI is printing a slight descending wedge. We can also see slight hidden bullish divergence as noted at wedge support with the arrow. 1H and daily Stoch RSI are just out of, or just now attempting to leave, oversold. Daily RSI continues to remain within its ascending channel. I have also added a custom Ichimoku Cloud indicator that one of our members created, and which is available to all our paid Discord members. This indicator seems much more tuned to crypto movements and shows a flat top cloud on both TFs indicating strong support in that area. The 1H cloud has recently twisted bullish as well, while the daily cloud appears to be nearing the same twist, suggesting further upside is likely. All this as it is, we can see a purple ascending broadening wedge possibly printing on the daily TF. The proposed target is above the wedge's resistance so it is possible that we could see a bull trap print. However, be aware that there is a slight possibility that price could continue much higher as well depending on how much demand and supply are available at that level. I don't hold a lot of belief that it will happen, though. That is my expected wave 3 target based on my current count that I've published previously. The vertical red lines on the daily denote the CME monthly expirations through the end of the summer. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
1
BTCUSD 4H chart (4/17/2019)Good morning, traders. I believe we are a lot more bullish than most of retail thinks at this moment. We see the dips being aggressively bought up with price still pushing higher. Everyone continues to compare the current market to 2014/15, which only results in feeding their bearish bias. As I've mentioned before, nobody is comparing price action and volume from that time period to now though. The current structure looks like what we consider to be the strongest of the reaccumulation TRs -- a reaccumulation with an uprise. As we can see, price has been printing higher highs and higher lows throughout this TR. In other words, demand continues to show up much more aggressively than supply. We can note increasing volume, since the volume lows on April 13th, as price continues to rise. Even this morning's shallow $50 shakeout caught bids at the 4H pivot. By the way, as I have mentioned numerous times before, pushing up through the bottom of the pivot is generally considered bullish and we usually look for the R1 pivot as the next immediate target. That would also put price at the TR's AR, which is within the supply zone noted. Depending on how you define this TR (from swing high to swing low, BC to Shakeout, ascending triangle, etc.) there are essentially four targets. The two purple lines and the R3 and R4 pivots. The R3 pivot gives us a 261% extension off wave 1 which makes it a strong candidate of where price is headed at this time. However, I will potentially readjust this target depending on volume and price action leading up to it. As long as RSI bounces off of, or otherwise remains above, the red line then we should be looking for price to rise. Alternatively, if price happens to drop below its ascending red support, then I will be looking for a Spring at the S2 pivot/demand zone. If price is rejected at the R1 pivot then I will being watching for the move down to form the Spring as well. While 4H Stoch RSI is overbought there is still room to move up, and 1H Stoch RSI has a lot of room to run. RSI on both TFs is currently bullish with a lot of room remaining to the upside. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
2
JNJ: Stuck in a trading range, buybacks are supporting the stockA weekly chart reveals the long-term trading range in which JNJ has been stuck. This Dow component ran up due to buybacks around the start of this year. But the trend and volume-based indicators show a lack of quiet accumulation by Dark Pools. The stock slid down ahead of its earnings release today and gapped up slightly on the report, but there has been considerable profit-taking today as well. So JNJ remains bound in a narrower range just below the trading range highs, where it could languish for some time.
NYSE:JNJ
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
BTCUSD 1D chart (4/15/2019)Good morning, traders. Everyone continues to scream that the sky is falling but price action is telling us something different. Even I had taken a quick position that we may have completed subwave 5 even though I mentioned that I didn't like how short it was. After this weekend, I believe that we may not have completed it yet and, as a matter of fact, subwave 5 of wave 3 may be my $5900/$6000 target with wave 5 reaching my ~$6400 target that I was discussing last week. I've outlined it as I'm watching it at the moment. Currently, I'm still looking for price to target the $5335 level to complete wave B of subwave 4 of wave 3, which I mentioned as a possibility last week in my morning update video, since demand continues to show up. We currently have two pattern targets noting that level: the April 11th-14th TR and the flag that is printing. It is also the 78% retracement level. The daily Stoch RSI is bottomed out and, with a little upward price movement, should print a bullish cross. Daily RSI is just under overbought and remains within the ascending channel. Other than that, we can see price printing a TR on the daily TF with a target of $5910/15. We should expect price to ultiamtely top out a bit higher than that for wave 3. The previous R5 pivot was at $5954, so likely somewhere between that and $6054. Based on current market structure and price action, it is projected that we will see a golden cross print on the daily TF around April 22nd. Notice price recently being supported at a HVN and the projected wave 5 target hitting the next HVN. I also mentioned last week that we could see price moving sideways through the end of this month, and the current price action continues to support that possibility as price prints a TR. This means that we may not see the move up to complete wave 3 until around the time of the CME futures expiry. If so, then alts should provide good opportunity to profit until then. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
6
Possible CHF/JPY Short position!!SMP TRADING SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY Chart time frame - H4 Timeframe 1-4 Days Actions on - A – Activating Event Market will meet resistance in zone @111.9 - .... and fall to the 110.6. In order to enter, the pair MUST be in line with my Entry Procedure.... B – Beliefs Market move towards the first Target 1 level @ 110.6 FX:CHFJPY Trade Management Entered @ ..... Stop Loss @ ..... Target 1 @ 110.6 Target 2 @ .... Risk/Reward @ 6.1 Happy trading :) Follow your Trading plan, remain disciplined and keep learning !! Please Follow, Like,Comment & Follow This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
Short
by SMPTrader
2
BTCUSD 4H/1D charts (4/11/2019)Good morning, traders. Yesterday, I put out a FOMO bull case as has been requested numerous times, so tomorrow I will put out a bear case. Today we will take a look at what happened overnight and see how it compares to what we've been looking at lately since a lot of traders are confused and scared. If you've been in Discord with us, then you know that our admin, Scott, has been mentioning the impending bear div and what needed to happen to overcome it. Ultimately, price was not able to do what needed to be done at this time and it appears that a very short subwave 5 completed wave 3. I tend to get a bit antsy when such a short wave 5 prints but, as I mentioned when price first squeezed up, a large, strong wave 3 can result in a short 5. Furthermore, I have continued to warn against trading wave 5s as they tend to be a lot more erratic as far as their targets go. If you've been watching any of the liquidation bots available on other social media sites or as stand alone apps, then you have seen significant liquidations of shorts and longs over the past week do to this. Don't be those traders. Stop throwing your money away by YOLOing as you attempt to catch the bottom or top. It's worse than buying scratch off tickets. Most Elliott Wave traders will not touch a wave 5 for this reason. Remember, if you're a bear then this latest strong move up has been a part of Wave C of Wave 4, which means you will be looking for a new lower cycle low to complete wave 5 after this final move up. While the bear case appears a lot less likely at this time due to general market cycles, CME volume on that push up, and historical Bitcoin market cycles (most notably, halving coming up in just about a year), until price closes above $6500 you should still keep the bear scenario in mind to help you concentrate on risk management. Like I said, I will go over that bear case tomorrow. Yesterday, I stated that "....price broke through the triangle resistance and this should create a target of $5465 based on the height of the triangle....," and price actually ended up hitting a high of $5466.06. Yes, I gave some higher targets as well, but this is why you should never ignore the height of the triangle even if the triangle looks like part of a pennant, especially when you're trying to find wave 5 targets. The height of the triangle, as you can see, gave the perfect target. We should expect subwave 1 of wave 5 to likely be rejected at the supply zone around $5400-$5500 with subwave 3 pushing through it. Currently, the 1H TF is oversold and the 4H TF RSI is sitting at 41.45 which is slightly bearish. However, 4H Stoch RSI has bottomed and is possibly about to signal a bullish cross. If we see any further downside, so that 4H RSI hits oversold, I expect the pivot at $4863 to support price. As we can see, that is also the top of the ascending channel. Price falling through this level would likely suggest further downside and I would then be looking at the channel's EQ to support price at around $4220-$4240, depending on how long it takes price to get there. That would also be the supply-turned-demand zone at the top of the large TR that appears to have created the bottom of the cycle, which I usually look for price to return to after a breakout of the TR -- a retest of resistance as support. However, wave 4 generally doesn't drop below the wave 4 of the lesser degree, so this has me watching $4778.59 as the point at which price should not be dropping through before heading up to complete wave 5. This is where it is important to pay attention to the higher TFs. When I say that I am looking for levels to support price, I am talking about the 4H candle and larger. This doesn't mean we can't see a wick lower on those candles, but we are expecting to see price ultimately supported around the price level given. So where can we expect wave 5 to target? I am looking for $5774 at least, as long as price can move above $5650. If it can't, then it is possible would could see wave 5 end right there. Moving beyond it gets price right into the $6000 zone's resistance. But I am planning on the wave actually reaching the EQ at $5950. With enough FOMO on the final subwave 5 of wave 5 push, we could even see price tap the 261.8% extension of wave 1 at $6040 which also happens to be the bottom of the HVN. I don't expect this all to happen overnight, however. Wave 4 should take a few days to, possibly, a week to complete depending on whether we get a simple ABC or more complex correction. This will give alts time to produce some profits, so traders should be looking at alt entries rather than attempting to trade this Bitcoin retracement. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
2
BTCUSD 15minute/4H charts (4/9/2019)Good morning, traders. I am getting a lot of unfortunate direct messages from traders who are attempting to trade in and out of the current shorter-term price movement and losing significant sums of capital in the process. As I have continued to warn, this chop is not the time to be doing that. Even really good traders understand they are pushing their luck when attempting to do so. The best advice is to zoom out and get a feel for the bigger picture, without all the sideways chop (noise). If we zoom out to the 4H chart, we can clearly see an ascending triangle printing, contrary to the rising wedge narrative that is permeating TV and CT. We can see volume dropping off as price nears the triangle's resistance which is what we expect to see. Additionally, the 21 EMA continues supporting price. I am watching the 4H RSI for a break through the descending resistance line drawn. That does appear to be coming sooner rather than later as Stoch RSI is oversold and nearing the bottom. Right now, I believe this TF and pattern are what traders should be watching. The target based on the height of the triangle is around $6000. Zooming into the 15 minute TF, I have the current wave structure that I am watching play out. I am not overly confident about this count, however, but some things do line up. The target based on the height of the red flag (descending channel) is just above the R2 pivot which puts it near the expected wave 3 target. The target based on the height of the flagpole leading up to the flag is the R4 pivot which puts it near the expected wave 5 target that would complete this wave 3. It also targets the top of the ascending channel that may be printing. So what does all this mean? It means that we could see wave 3 extend up to $6000. Alternatively, as we have been discussing in Discord, we could also see price range trade sideways within the parallel channel that is drawn. In that case, the current sideways movement would most likely be wave 4 which means we would have to recount our waves. The target based on the height of the parallel channel (trading range) would still be $6000 and that would then complete wave 5 rather than wave 3. Importantly, it doesn't really matter which count is correct at this time, only that they all appear to be agreeing with the pattern's suggestion that we have more upside left to complete. After the move up, we can then reassess the wave count to get a better understanding if that was the final wave up or if there is one more left. We are currently seeing potential hidden bullish divergence printing on the daily chart with RSI still oversold. This most likely won't be confirmed until tomorrow's candle at the earliest. Of course if price takes off higher before then, the divergence won't materialize at all. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
1
Gold preparing for another leg upIn the Investments channel in our Discord, I suggested that it was likely a good time to buy in November 2018 at the point noted. It looks like we may have another good opportunity to buy now as well. Gold appears to be completing subwave 2 of wave 3 with an initial target of the R2 pivot area as well as a full wave 3 target of the R3 pivot area. The former target aligns with the expected target based on the current flag printing and the latter target aligns with target based on the height of the red symmetrical triangle. Weekly RSI remains bullish at 56 while appearing to consolidate. Weekly Stoch RSI is near bottom. The HVN should continue to support price as it readies to move up.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
5
BTCUSD 15min/4H charts (4/5/2019)Good morning, traders. Not much happened over night. Price bounced out of demand at $4778.59 yesterday and is currently attempting to push through supply. A move above this supply level would make a case for bullish continuation of the upward trend before further correction, especially if price exceeds $5100 again. In that case, this small and short retrace would've most likely been subwave 4 of what I believe is wave 3. That would have us expecting price to target the $5500 level at least, with the possibility of attacking the November 18th swing high of $5658.47, before completing wave 3. As those of you who follow my daily videos are aware, that supply at $5500 has been the target that I have consistently suggested is most likely. These current highs align with other pattern targets we have discussed over the past two months as well. All this congestion of targets resulting from the accumulation below makes preciseness difficult until we see definitive movement from here, whether that be up or down. All that being as it is, the 15 minute chart has price printing an ascending wedge which is generally bearish (i.e. price falls through wedge support). That would have price targeting $4830 based on the height of the pattern. As shown, price would hit the small yellow demand just above the larger, green demand zone. It also puts price at the descending channel's EQ. I am not certain just how valid the channel is, but it currently aligns with swing highs and lows, giving it some added weight. Furthermore, price is at the HVN so a failure to continue through it could result in an accelerated drop like the one seen on April 3rd would likely have price bouncing off the channel support and confirming the flag while hitting our initial target around $4500. RSI on the 15 minute chart has printed an ascending channel whose support it has now fallen through, suggesting downward pressure on price, at least in the near term. Price on the 4H chart continues to be supported by the 21 EMA for now but is showing possible weakness at the descending channel's resistance. While my initial target is the $4400-$4500 range, VPVR shows a large gap down toward $4150 which aligns with my warnings about the possibility of seeing price fall toward that level. As I have stated numerous times, whether price holds at $4400/$4500 or finds support at ~$4000 depends entirely on how much demand shows up. The FOMO was large in the run up to $5000 a few days ago. Many people FOMOed in at $5000+ and are now at break-even or underwater. I would venture that a majority of them have weak hands, meaning any significant move down could very well trigger them to sell. The much more significant support begins around $4150 and the 4H pivot remains at $4025. I will be watching 4H RSI to see if it breaks through its descending resistance after having recently fell out of the ascending wedge. It bounced recently off support at 57. Stoch RSI on the 4H is just now attempting to push out of oversold as well. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
2
BTCUSD 15 minute/1D charts (4/4/2019)Good morning, traders. Price tapped out just shy of the $5300 level at $5282 yesterday. Those in our Discord were alerted three hours prior to the $4800 target of the drop and price hit $4800.50 (missed it by 0.50). I then posted a target of the $5075-$5110 area as resistance and that was hit a few hours later. Unfortunately I often don't think about updating TV. So where are we at now? Sideways, continuing to find resistance at the 15 minute pivot. The orange zone is the monthly OB and the green inside of it is the daily OB, as I have pointed out numerous times before. My short survived the extra bit of push up yesterday, so I remain short toward $4400-$4500 with the caveats of possible wicks lower which I published yesterday and/or the day before. Initial support will likely be found around $4700 at the top of the monthly OB. The 4H RSI dropped through channel support suggesting that more downside is in the cards. Stoch RSI on the 4H is nearing the bottom. The 1H RSI continues to drop and is expected to reach oversold and Stoch RSI is nearing the top. Price is finding resistance at the 21 EMA on the 1H. As mentioned previously, daily RSI is at the top of the ascending channel and Stoch RSI is topped out, suggesting a reversal on that larger TF. Additionally, yesterday's volume almost hit the previous day's volume, yet the candle spread was much smaller and the day ended with a long upper wick. This is indicative of supply coming in and demand fatiguing. The daily 21 EMA is currently at the R1 pivot around $4250. If we can get the correction toward $4500, then that should set up a 5th wave targeting the $6250-$6500 zone. In that case, we would then expect to see a retracement back toward the monthly OB for a final time before further price appreciation as the wave 2 of the larger degree completes. Currently, 15 minute RSI has printed hidden bearish divergence and supply volume spikes are showing up increasingly larger near that pivot suggesting increasing selling into demand which should result in price dropping. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Chris_Inks