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BTCUSD 1D chart (4/2/2019)Good morning, traders. As you are likely aware by now, price took off last night and hit a high of $5080 (~$150 above the 1.618 extension off the first wave in December 2018) just above the daily R4 pivot as I have been attempting to prepare everyone for as an increasing likelihood of happening due to price action and volume, especially as of late. I hope we stop hearing all the "low volume" nonsense that has plagued this space for way too long now. As I wrote yesterday, "I continue to see an increasing number of really terrible analysis relating to volume. Yes, volume is low, but this is to be necessarily expected as price nears resistance and the apex of a triangle. So there is nothing overtly bearish about volume at this time. Stop listening to people who say 'volume is low' or 'volume is high.' Without context it means absolutely nothing because volume does not live alone on its own little island." In yesterday's morning update video I stated that we should see a move up toward $4200 followed by a retrace to reset 4H RSI and then a strong move up through that level but that we don't trade on what we think should happen, rather we trade on what the charts say and that the charts were saying we were likely to hit that area and then take off instead. Clearly that is what happened. We are now officially in a bullish trend as price has notched higher lows AND highs for the first time since the 2017 ATH and start of the corrective cycle. Ideally, we would look for a pullback toward the R2 daily pivot at around $4400/$4450 now for wave 4. In terms of Wyckoff, this would create the BUEC/LPS at the top of the TR which is right in the demand zone as noted on the chart. If we can get that, then I am looking for wave 5 to target the $6200/$6300 level which means we would see subwave 3 of wave 5 push through the supply at $5500. I closed out my long on that move up and am now short toward that R2 daily pivot. The plan at this time is to long at that level and look for a target in the low $6000s as mentioned above. We are going to see novice retail traders now lose money attempting to short this move down. They will likely over leverage their short position and get liquidated as price bounces on the way down. Don't be that person. That doesn't mean don't short, it does mean don't over leverage and make sure you are finding confirmation of some sort before entering your short while understanding that residual volatility from last night's move remains so we are likely to see price bouncing $50 or more multiple times within a few seconds at times as price moves. Overall target remains around $14,500/$15,000 based on the height of the large descending wedge that printed from the ATH now that price has decisively pushed through it. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Chris_Inks
8
BTCUSD 1H/1D charts (3/29/2019)Good morning, traders. We saw price push through resistance over night as expected, when 4H RSI breached its own resistance, but supply continues to attempt to halt the momentum. This is the first time price has been able to breach the ATH diagonal resistance line which makes it a significant move. In doing so, price has also left the very large descending wedge which has been printing throughout the entire correction. Based on the height of the wedge, that would ultimately give us a target of around $14,600. My initial target, however, remains the top of the ascending channel/4H R3 pivot (right under the daily R1 pivot). In regards to Elliott Wave counts, that should complete this 5th wave up and signal a small retracement as price prints the wave 2 of the larger degree. I will be looking for that pullback to target the S1-S2 pivot area ($3850-$3900). The move up to complete this small wave 5 would also put price right around the February 24th swing high of $4190. Of course, right above that, looms the December 24th swing high of $4236.84. A move above that one gives us the first higher high since the ATH in December 2017 and signals a possible bullish trend in progress. CME Bitcoin futures expire today which could provide an increase in activity within an hour of it doing so. If the resistance that Bitcoin has been meeting in the $4000 range is due to futures short positions, as I have posited a few times before (and makes sense considering the February expiration saw price at $3950) then there would likely be an attempt to push price down right before the close in order to limit their losses or even make a tiny bit of profit. More importantly, if that's the case, then the overhead resistance that's kept price in check should no longer be an issue after today. CME futures expire at 11:00 a.m. CST (4 p.m. UTC). So, will price be able to hit our target? If it does, it seems more likely that we will see a sharp move up followed by a sharp move down as bulls are trapped for liquidity to get price below $3950 at expiry. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
2
BTCUSD 4H/D1 charts (3/28/2019)Good morning, traders. I hope you are being vigilant and monitoring market conditions. The lull most often results in retail traders losing money as they get bored and lazy because price isn't moving much. Daily volume yesterday was the most we've seen on Bitstamp in over a month and resulted in a nice, large daily candle. Price has halted appreciation at an area of confluence of resistance. We can see the shorter term descending resistance and ATH descending resistance coming together, as well as the ascending channel EQ. Additionally, the vertical red line marks the Bitmex March futures contracts expiry. Daily RSI hit resistance yesterday while Stoch RSI crossed bullishly. Price still hasn't retraced, rather it appears to be consolidating near yesterday's high while printing a bull flag on the 4H TF at the top of the local TR suggesting demand is continuing to build. Price remains above the 4H and daily pivots, as well as their respective HVNs. The target based on the height of the 4H bull flag would be the same target we have continued to watch which is the top of the ascending red channel. The 4H RSI broke through resistance yesterday and is currently testing it as support. A bounce from there should signal price breaking through it's own flag resistance and targeting $4120-$4155, depending on when it does so. Ideally, I would at least like to see that break and a close above the February swing high of $4190. This would give us monthly higher highs from January through March. It would also strengthen the case for bullishness. If we can see price head up from here, then I am initially looking for a target of the red channel resistance followed by a retest of the ATH descending resistance line as support/bounce off the red channel support, and then follow through toward $4538 at a minimum. This latter target is based off the height of the larger descending channel on the daily chart. While there are only three alternating touches (really need four to confirm the channel), it does give us a preliminary target. What we ultimately need to see is a close above the December 24th swing high of $4236.84. This would confirm a bullish trend as we would have a higher high off the corrective, December low. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
2
BTCUSD 4H/1D charts (3/27/2019)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin made a strong move up over night and is back above the psychological $4000 level. So far, we are watching price do exactly what I said I wouldn't be surprised to see it do a few days back -- the initial drop and subsequent rise. I warned traders against shorting on that drop for anything more than a quick buck. That doesn't guarantee that we won't see price head toward $3600 before moving higher, but at this point it is on the bears to show up and do work, and if they don't then the liquidations/short covering as price surpasses this current level could catapult price through the ATH diagonal resistance and into the $4200/$4300 cluster of shorts. With Bitmex March futures contracts expiring in two days (vertical red line), will we see price get rejected at that resistance or pump through it? Bitmex order books are showing bids at about 10% over asks within $200 range around price and growing. As the spread increases to the $1000 range, bids growth outpaces asks at an exponentially greater rate. This suggests that traders are looking long overall, but until the break through the $4200/$4300 level there remains a chance of a retest of $3600. Daily volume has accelerated today and we still have just under half of the day left before the candle closes, so lots of time to see volume increase even more. Price has found resistance at the short term daily diagonal resistance from February 24th this morning but appears to be consolidating just under it rather than retracing at this time. A push through the cluster of resistance at this level within the next two days should give price a nice boost up. Daily Stoch RSI bounced out of oversold today and is showing a bullish cross if price can hold this level or higher through the daily close. Daily RSI is bullish at 60 and nearing a break of its own descending resistance. We need to see price break the March 21st swing high at $4055.35 to negate the possible hidden bearish divergence forming on the 4H MACD histogram. In doing so, price will need to move up substantially to overcome possible bearish divergence on the 4H MACD, but as mentioned above this is likely if price can make it through the nearby cluster of resistance. Shorter term, I am looking for a break above the local 4H TR with a target of the top of the ascending red channel. The two blue horizontal lines are the swing highs that, if closed above, signal significantly increased likelihood of a push toward $5000. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
1
BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (3/26/2019)Good morning, traders. During yesterday's video I took a look at this pair in multiple different ways. I also mentioned that I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a short drop followed by continued appreciation. Well, we got the drop but so far price has not been able to follow through to the upside. That being said, this pair hit oversold on the H4 yesterday and is just now hitting oversold on the H6. With another 2+ hours left in the current H4 candle, we could see hidden bullish divergence print on RSI. We can already see hidden bullish divergence printing on the H4 MACD between March 11th and today and on the H6 MACD between March 14th and today. H1, H4, and H6 Stoch RSI have bottomed as well. None of this guarantees that we will see a bounce from here, but it sets the stage for one. Now we need to see demand come in and follow through. H4 shows a descending wedge printing, and I have readjusted the red ascending channel to fit the current price action. Order books are starting to show increasing demand, but the fight between supply and demand is still strong. The larger picture shows the daily Stoch RSI has nearly bottomed out but the weekly Stoch RSI recently topped out while weekly RSI hit resistance. However, Stoch RSI can remain topped or bottomed out for multiple periods. Although price remains above the daily pivot, it is currently below the 21 EMA, but there is still another 9+ hours left in the candle, so we could see price closing above it. As long as the C Fork (Chuvashov Fork) holds up on the daily, price should bounce and continue higher. If it falls through the Fork support then we will likely see RSI falling below support as well, indicating further depreciation. Currently, I am watching for H4 RSI to push through resistance as an indication that price has begun an uptrend on that TF. When it does, we should see price pushing through the descending wedge resistance and targeting $4100+. If price continues falling through the H4 demand, then demand around $3600 needs to hold or else we should expect a retest of the corrective low. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (3/21/2019)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin continues to edge higher, but will it be enough to push it through the threshold of resistance? Price hit a high of $4055 this morning before retreating to $3919. The lack of strong follow through to the upside of $4100 and beyond, so far this year, has more and more traders thinking that price must go down rather than up. Could this just be disbelief as price grinds higher through supply? It makes no sense to enter long or short at this time (unless you're entering long for investment purposes which means a year+ TF or your intention is a small scalp with tight risk management). But here's what's likely going to happen -- traders are going to enter at this point anyway because they're bored or they're gambling that price will go their way and they will lack the requisite risk management. "After all," they tell themselves, "I have a 50/50 chance of being right and if I'm right I'll be rich!" As such, they tend to overestimate their ability to exit with profit and as a result overstay their welcome in a chop trade. The fact that price has not dumped to below $3600 yet, but instead continues to grind higher, gives the bullish some support in their thesis that price will head up to $5000 before potentially heading down below that $3600 level. In the near term, this appears to be supported by Stoch RSI bottoming out on the H12 and lower TFs at this time. Overall, we do see that H4 RSI and MACD have been weaker on the high since the previous swing high on March 15th, creating a bearish divergence, which has possibly already played out this morning, and this has led to a possible bullish divergence printing. As such, this could just be a temporary lull before a strong push through resistance -- a liquidation generation event as price took out some stops above the blue TR before taking out stops below it. Expanding the size of the local TR (blue) on the H4 TF shows that we could potentially see price trade sideways between $3900 and $4050 through the end of the month. We can also see the rising wedge in red, that I discussed previously, which suggests a breakdown could have price targeting the $3775/$3800 level if $3900 doesn't provide support. Current visible order books do not support that target on a breakdown at this time, so take that for what it's worth. The wedge is very poorly printed. What I mean is that wedges which have price reacting as expected on a breakdown usually have much cleaner candles which define the wedge better. They lack the significant number of wicks that is prevalent in this particular pattern. As a result, I wouldn't be surprised to see price move sideways, rather than down, if the wedge breaks down. And if that happens, then it is an indication that this local TR is likely re-accumulation, rather than distribution, which would ultimately see price heading higher. Currently, there's no way to know for sure which way price is ultimately heading. The inexperienced will argue that it's definitely going down. Again, this is a possibility, but until we see some sort of confirmation, that's all it is -- a possibility. The D1 TF shows a larger purple TR which would have this current local H4 blue TR possibly acting as the BUEC/LPS. It also shows the ascending red channel that is containing price, as well as a possible larger descending channel/flag. Most interesting at this time is that the H4 volume on that recent drop was almost 3/4 of the volume on the H4 drop of February 24th, but with significantly less volume. This shows us more effort but less result which appears to be indicating that demand is much stronger this time around than it was at that point, so traders should be careful if attempting to ride a large TF short from a recent entry. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD H1/D1 charts (3/20/2019)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin's consolidation intensifies as price nears the symmetrical triangle's apex (descending red solid line and ascending black dashed line). Played out as a pennant, the target should be around $4280. That being said, as I always tell my students, whenever drawing a pennant make sure you also draw the flag because the latter occurs much more often. In this case, we can see that price may be printing an ascending broadening wedge with the wedge's support playing double duty as the triangle's support. A breakdown of this pattern should print the flag support as price targets $3900/10. If this flag were to play out instead of the pennant, then the target on a bullish break would be slightly lower depending on how long it took price to break out. H1 RSI is printing a symmetrical triangle as well and a bullish break of it should see price breaking through pennant resistance whereas a bearish break should see price breaking through pennant support and possibly printing that flag support. Price remains above the ascending blue channel's median which is bullish. There is the chance that price could stall and ultimately even reverse near the blue channel's resistance, so traders need to keep this in mind. This is especially important as it would also be near the descending ATH resistance. However, if price happens to reach the target near $4250/$4300, that should open up a strong, impulsive move up toward $5000 (likely short squeeze). There are never any guarantees, but that is the way things appear at this time. Daily shows us that price remains above the support/resistance level noted by the heavy horizontal blue line. It also remains above the pivot and 21 EMA on the H1 and D1 TFs. Make sure you're not trading out of boredom. Waiting for the proposed setup to complete and subsequent confirmation lessens risk dramatically. Retail traders often overtrade due to boredom, fear of missing out, and/or their dreams of being overnight millionaires, all of which most often results in them losing their capital. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (3/19/219)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin has continued to consolidate as expected and, in doing so, has printed a pennant/symmetrical triangle. Based on the height of the flagpole, price should be targeting the $4250 level once price closes above the triangle's resistance. But traders should also be aware of the $4110 target based on the height of the triangle which puts it within $25 of the target based on the height of the recent local TR, as shown on the daily chart, right at the EQ of the the supply zone. That TR appears to be re-accumulation without a Spring and suggests upward movement. Sitting between the two targets is the descending diagonal ATH resistance which makes it the wild card with a close above being bullish and a close below being potentially bearish. I say potentially because in terms of the larger TR that has been printing since December, we may only see price dip toward $3600 to print an LPS before resuming the uptrend, and of course this wouldn't be bearish at all. H4 RSI has broken through the descending wedge's resistance and is now challenging the descending channel's resistance. Daily RSI is still finding resistance at the ascending channel's EQ. Price remains above the pivots and 21 EMAs of the H1 through D3 TFs. The D3 RSI is now bullish at 52.4 as well. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (3/18/2019)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin surprised a lot of people with its moves over the weekend, but not you, right? You've been paying attention and not allowing emotion to get in the way. As I have been mentioning was likely, Bitcoin finally pushed through $3950 and found initial resistance at $4040. Remember, I warned you to remain mindful of that $4050 level. What remains interesting is the $4250/$4300 level. I have stated many times before that a break through this level could very well likely propel price toward $5000. I would expect high volume if that happens. The question is, will price get there or will it be rejected by that ATH diagonal resistance? For now, I am expecting a bit of consolidation at the current level with the previous resistance at $3900/50 being tested as support. The $4140 level would be the next target. That would put price at the supply's EQ as well as the diagonal resistance. A push through that level would set up a possible run through $4300 and resultant pump (short squeeze) to the $5000 level targets. H4 MACD histogram is showing possible hidden bullish divergence printing between March 14th and today so far which is denoted with the blue line. Additionally, H4 RSI has been printing a descending channel and is headed toward that channel's resistance. A break through that resistance should indicate that price is headed higher once more. This weekend's high found resistance at the ascending channel's EQ, so a close above that EQ should have price targeting the channel's resistance at least. We also saw a bullish MACD cross on the daily this weekend. Price remains above the 21 day EMA and HVN, as well as the H4 21 EMA. I would like to see $3850 hold if price breaks down, but it is ultimately a failure of the swing low at $3658 to provide support that would indicate a likely test of the $3300/$3400 level. Previous D3 candle closed well and price sits above the 21 EMA on that TF. We have had four weekly green candles in a row for a total of about 10% gain. This is the second longest streak of green weeks that we have seen during the corrective market (the longest being the 5 weeks that began April 2, 2018). Although overall still low, weekly volume has remained steady for the past three weeks during these gains as well as 2x higher than it was prior to the drop from $6000. The weekly 21 EMA sits at $4270 currently and MACD's histogram is printing hidden bearish divergence suggesting a bit of a move down if we don't see a squeeze toward $5000 this week. Even a move toward that level will not extinguish the divergence, but it does provide a nice opportunity to safely short toward $4200 afterward and set up continued price appreciation. BTCUSDShorts/Longs ratio is back up to .9824 and oversold suggesting that shorts should be closing and/or longs should be opening sooner rather than later. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
1
BCHUSD - Caught in a Crowd Gathered Pit FightBring your Shiff Fork, this ones Fight Club Style. Looking in on BCHUSD reveals some Mid-to-Short Term Shiff Pitchfork (minus the pitch) action with an array of confirmations. Price action seems to be caught in a crowd gathered pit fight, and the range is ' the low 120's ' (low) and ' the high 130's ' (high). A move down from the .25 Line would likely shove price back up from a supporting .382 zone from the Lower Parallel ( looking like more support in this zone than upper than upper parallel's action resistance ). A move up from the .25 Line might see a kick back to the other side from the .382 upper parallel The back and forth has been going on a modest 18 days, and the trend is mostly sideways, with a less than ideal pitch. What can you do? There it is. Trade the range? Good luck, Traders. May you find yourself on the profitable side of it. ~Harbachan
COINBASE:BCHUSD
by MrJEB
BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (3/15/2019)Good morning, traders. As mentioned yesterday, price finally started moving upward overnight, but a small H4 gap at $3854.77 now remains. We have a recent clean break of the H4 RSI ascending triangle and have met resistance, once more, at the top of the local TR at around $3900. H1 RSI is just now hitting overbought, but I am still looking for an initial move up to the $3940/50 level with a secondary move up to the $4150/60 level. Traders need to remain mindful of the $4050 level along the way, however. H4 RSI may print hidden bearish divergence if price does not breach $3903.98 within the next couple of hours. The time frame across that divergence is less than a day, though, so we shouldn't expect a large movement down in response if it does print. RSI is bullish at 60.3 and MACD has finally crossed bullishly back over centerline. Price remains above the H4 21 EMA and is now cleanly above the HVN as well. Daily RSI is targeting the nearby resistance level at 58 and a close above 61 should have the MACD crossing bullishly. The upper blue horizontal price line is the major resistance level needed to be overcome by price. As mentioned in a previous analysis, price has surpassed that level three times since December but then fallen back below it within a week. The consolidation at/above the HVN suggests preparation for a pop upward which would be inline with our expectations of those higher targets. If further movement to the downside occurs, then I would want to see the February 27th swing low hold at $3658.19. What this means is that I don't want to see a daily close below that. A wick below and close above would print a bullish SFP and signal likely upward price progression once again. If this were to play out, it would be a strong liquidity grab to fuel that price appreciation. Prior to that point, I would want to see the H4 March 8th swing low at $3760.10 hold. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
2
BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (3/12/2019)Good morning, traders. It looks like we had just a tad bit of a drop overnight which price has been rectifying this morning after having dipped below the H4 pivot. Price is now above the 21 EMA on that TF and RSI has continued to print a descending channel. H$ MACD is curled up and looking for a bullish cross. The small descending wedge that printed gives price a target of $3900, bringing it back to the top of the local TR/EQ of the ascending channel. I have readjusted the ascending channel to fit the recent movement. We can also see a HVN in that same area, but once through that then price should be targeting the top of the ascending channel and R1 pivot. It should be a relatively easy move to the R2 pivot/EQ of the overhead supply/EQ of the ascending purple channel once price moves through $4048. However, it is there that we can't be sure what will happen. It seems most likely that price should retrace back down toward $3900 from that point and then push through the descending ATH resistance. However, we can't ignore the possibility that price just takes off all of the sudden without the retracement. There is enough room on the daily RSI for this latter possibility to occur. As far as the purple ascending channel goes, it is preliminary and may not hold, but it aligns pretty well with price movement which is why I'm watching it. The daily candle is currently printing a possible hammer reversal, but traders are cautioned about acting solely on it until the daily close and confirmation. D3 chart continues to look like a pause before continued upward movement. Weekly is not an easy read due to the larger upper wick a few weeks back but it isn't looking awful at this time which is a positive since the lower TFs are looking more bullish for now. If further movement to the downside occurs, then I would want to see the February 27th swing low hold at $3658.19. What this means is that I don't want to see a daily close below that. A wick below and close above would print a bullish SFP and signal likely upward price progression once again. Prior to that point, I would want to see the H4 March 8th swing low at $3760.10 hold. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (3/11/2019)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin attempted to push above $3950 this weekend but could not make it happen. As I have been mentioning, there is strong resistance up toward $4000 and overcoming it won't be a walk in the park. Last night's downward move bounced off the daily 21 EMA, finding support on the HVN. An H1 gap was created around $3888 and RSI just bounced off oversold. H4 price is printing higher lows between March 8th and today while RSI is printing lower lows. This all suggests some temporary bottoming and a move up toward $3900 at the least. If we take a look at the H4 channels we can see price attempting to push through the horizontal TR's resistance. Price moved up with four touches on the ascending channel's support. Since the Friday high, it has moved within the descending channel inside it, with some sideways actions happening between the resistance levels of the two horizontal channels. If we see price close above $3900 then we should see it target the ascending channel's resistance. With the H4 RSI touching its descending channel support, and price finding support on the HVN/D1 21 EMA as well as bouncing off the D3 support level, it makes more sense for price to move up from here rather than down. We can also see a bullish hammer printing on the H4 TF signifying a likely reversal. Traders should be cautious around the Friday $3950.25 swing high as price needs to close above it before it can target the mid-$4100s/H4 R2 pivot and nearby swing high of $4190. March 10th saw the daily MACD rejected at the bullish cross. The ascending channel on the D1 chart shows price's possible path toward a double top at the ATH descending resistance. The truth is, there are many paths, down and up, that price can take at this time and many retail traders will lose a lot of money attempting to trade the noise in this area. Lack of patience permeates the retail trading sphere spurred on by emotional get-rich-quick overnight millionaire thoughts. Traders that insist on day trading this level should be much more intent on locking in profits earlier and completing shorter term trades. Those looking to buy in for a longer term run toward $5000 or more are best served by closing the chart once they buy and not looking at it again for a few weeks at least. Finally, as some of you may be aware by now, Binance has scheduled maintenance planned for tomorrow. I have seen "analysis" suggesting that since price dropped through the $6000 level soon after the November 12th Binance maintenance, that price will drop this time as well. While it's always possible, the glaring difference that immediately occurs to me is that price was sitting on support at that time while it is now sitting at resistance. If the same manipulation storyline is followed, then logically it would suggest a push through resistance not a drop in price. If further movement to the downside occurs, then I would want to see the February 27th swing low hold at $3658.19. What this means is that I don't want to see a daily close below that. A wick below and close above would print a bullish SFP and signal likely upward price progression once again. Prior to that point, I would want to see the H4 March 8th swing low at $3760.10 hold. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD H1/D1 charts (3/8/2019)Good morning, traders. Price continues to press upward in spite of the overhead supply. Because this is happening within sideways movement there isn't much to say today other than the weekend is upon us and we usually see a strong move during that time, so traders should be keeping that in mind regardless of the direction of their trade. The H1 chart shows an Adam and Eve double bottom pattern that forms the local TR. Price is printing a slightly ascending channel as it consolidates toward the $3900/$3940 resistance level. RSI continues to print a descending broadening wedge and MACD completed a bullish crossover earlier this morning and is pulling away from the signal line. The targets remain the same with the expectation of a move up to $4134, at least, based on the height of the double bottom pattern and local TR. Traders should be keeping an eye on volume and price action as price pushes through $3950 and $4000 to get a better idea of how price will react as it nears the target. As mentioned previously, the target has the potential to print a cup, followed by a handle, which would then have price targeting $4700+. D1 chart shows two previous days of doji candles printing slightly higher followed by today's candle which is much more significantly bullish at this time. However, there is still more than 1/3 of the day left in the candle and we need to see the expected follow through. MACD is about to cross bullishly. Be sure to refer to my previous analysis for other possible targets. Yesterday's D3 candle completed strongly bullish and engulfing the previous D3 candle while closing above the 21 EMA and pivot. The weekly candle is looking good at this time as well. Price continues to hold above the 50% level of the December move up, which is bullish. As we discussed a month ago, weekly price is finding itself consolidating between the 200 MA on the bottom and 200 EMA on the top. A close above $4100 would put price above that 200 EMA resistance level. A close below $3885, however, would put price below the 200 MA support level. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD H1/D1 charts (3/7/2019)Good morning, traders. Not a lot has happened over the past couple of days. We appear to be watching price move sideways. However, if we take a closer look, we can see price making higher lows toward resistance at $3900. This is creating a possible ascending triangle which should have price targeting $3988-$4005 upon a successful breach and follow-through. I had a preliminary descending channel on the H1 RSI yesterday but it now appears that it is printing a descending broadening wedge suggesting that demand is building for another push up as well. Additionally, the H1 MACD is nearing a bullish crossover. A successful continuation through the $4000 level should see price targeting $4130 with a possible wick toward the R1 pivot at $4210. At that point, I don't think price will push through the ATH diagonal red resistance without retracing toward $3900/$3950 first. This would then possibly print a cup and handle pattern with a minimum target of $4700/$4750 based on the pattern, depending on how it forms. The H4 RSI hasn't hit overbought yet either, currently sitting just below it suggesting that price has further appreciation before a good corrective retracement occurs. D1 MACD histogram printed bullish divergence between February 7th and March 4th which resulted in the move up since then. While daily volume has declined since the drop from $6000, it has also evened out since the end of December and appears to be building in strength, overall. This suggests that a base is being formed between $3000 and $4000. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD H1/D1 charts (3/6/2019)Good morning, traders. I have been looking for something new to point out since yesterday but haven't really found much. Price has been consolidating at the upper end of the move up from yesterday. The dark black horizontal channel gives you the local TR. A close above the top of that TR should provide the target shown which is the EQ of the upper supply zone at around $4130-$4150. My current thought is that if we get a pop up to that level, then we may see a retracement toward the EQ of the green zone on the D1 chart (around $3900) before potentially pushing through the dashed red descending resistance from the ATH. We may even have a smaller move up followed by one smaller move down. If the pop up and retracement described happens, then it is likely that we could see a pennant print which would provide a target of the 1.618 extension at around $4900-$4950 based on the height of the flagpole. Prior to that, we may see price targeting the 1.272 extension/R2 pivot on the way up ($4550-$4630) based on the height of the pennant. H1 RSI is printing a flag, and a break through the flag's resistance should send price upward toward the initial target. Buyers continue to show their interest as RSI isn't getting much of a chance to cool down. This continued pressure as price nears the ATH diagonal resistance suggests that a move through that resistance would create strong bullish momentum overall. As always, we need to see it happen, as well as follow-through. Lower targets remain the same as yesterday but I am expecting the current TR to support price at this time. Beware of a possible bullish SFP printing if there is a sudden drop and price falls below the February 27th swing low. Based on the TR, that would likely print a Spring to create liquidity and move up through the resistance at the top of the TR. If you are looking to short, then you want to see a close below that swing low, at a minimum. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD H1/D1 charts (3/4/2019)Good morning, traders. I'm finally back, after having moved last week, and Bitcoin has basically done nothing other than initially hitting my first upper target, followed by my lower target, that was published last Monday. Since then, it has moved sideways. Last night saw a bit of a move down, but price has remained within the local TR and now the H1 and H4 TFs are oversold and showing bullish divergence. Price hit the 61.8 retracement on February 27th and last night's drop hasn't pierced that yet, suggesting this local TR may be the bottom of this local corrective move. The supply zone between $4036 and $4237 remains the level to watch for upward movement to continue, with the supply zone between $4349 and $4635 being the next level to watch. Ultimately, we want to see $3550-$3650 hold. If it fails to hold, then $3431-$3383 becomes the target, and a push below that should have price targeting the 2018 low. D1 RSI is currently finding support on the horizontal S/R line at around 47, but the day still has quite a while to go before it closes out, so traders should be monitoring this. For shorter term traders, on a move up from here, initially price should expect resistance around $3770-$3835 followed by more resistance at $3880-$3945. Yes, many of the levels mentioned throughout this analysis are within $100 of each other which is close. However, traders need to understand that price has been moving sideways since the end of November which means many areas of interest have developed for traders looking to long and short. Movement in either direction necessarily means that these levels need to be overcome one at a time. Traders should be noting that each subsequent drop since February 24th has produced less effect for the amount of effort exerted. Additionally, the amount of effort exerted overall, across those drops, has continued to diminish. These two things suggest that 1) demand is increasing and 2) supply is exhausting, which means that we should expect price to rise overall. Contrary to CT's farm animals and cartoon characters, nothing has happened yet that should convince traders that price is about to dump $2000. On the contrary, price continues to make a stronger case for a possible low point forming. However, nothing is guaranteed and traders need to remain vigilant. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
1
MELI: Trading Range Technical Pattern Reveals Large LotsThe outline in red shows the trading range pattern for MELI stock on the daily time frame. The highs of this range are remarkably level for a trading range. The extreme low rebound is lower than prior range lows. The compression of price before the gap up is a particularly important pattern to watch for in a trading range market condition, to anticipate a breakout. Use volume oscillators along with candlestick patterns to identify the underlying hidden large lot activity.
NASDAQ:MELI
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
BTCUSD H1/D1 charts (2/19/2019)Good morning, traders. Price has continued to move well yesterday and into today, hitting our third target (based on the height of the flagpole) at $3945 while pushing through the 50 and 100 day MAs. Most TFs are overbought at this point, including the daily. Yesterday's volume continued expansion, which I have been mentioning for a while now that traders should be watching, as it hit a 10-month high. I also said, yesterday, that I wanted to see price close above $3774, which it did. At this point, price has cleared the descending channel resistance and is sitting above the symmetrical triangle resistance. However, price has not retested either as support yet. I am not a fan of price falling back into the triangle, but diagonals are nothing more than a by-product of continuous horizontals and a retest of $3690-3720 would do wonders for another bullish push. So, that's what I'm looking for at this time. Anything significantly lower, for instance a close below the ascending channel that is possibly printing, puts the idea of bullishness into jeopardy. A possible double top may be forming on the 15 minute TF with a confirmation being a close below the $3840 swing low which would signal a target of $3720 based on that pattern and would provide a retest of that 2-month-old descending channel resistance as support. A close above $4237 would print a higher high to go with the current higher low and establish a possible uptrend. During yesterday's morning video update, I stated that this was especially not the time to trade emotionally. So this is a good opportunity to remind everyone of the other possible price targets that I have been mentioning for the past few months. 1) Bitfinex price structure does not have price exiting the symmetrical triangle yet, unlike Bitstamp which has seen price move about $100 above the triangle's resistance so far. This means that we could see price printing an ABCDE triangle which would result in one more leg down. That would mean that price is currently completing the C leg with a D leg down to the bottom of the triangle once more and an E leg up to the top, remaining, before that leg down. In that case, the symmetrical triangle pattern target would be around $2300-$2400. But that would also complete five waves down and signal a likely reversal from that area. 2) Another idea is that we are currently completing the fifth wave as an ending diagonal which would likely complete around the September 2017 low ($2900-$3000). 3) Price could be completing a more complex correction which would see price targeting the sub-$2000 level. 4) Even if price continues higher, failure to continue above $5000 could still see that move up as the completion of Wave 4 with the final wave still to come and targeting sub-$2000 as well. If the current price structure is accumulation then that would make the only truly plausible possibilities the bullish reversal currently happening or #2. In regards to the latter, I would prefer to see price reach the R2 pivot/descending channel target and get rejected by the supply in that area, as well as the ATH descending resistance, before heading back down to create a slightly lower corrective low in the $2900s. This would print a well-formed ST within Phase B and prepare price for a further price advance toward the top of the TR at around $4300. There is also the possibility, as I have shown numerous times before, that the TR as drawn is exaggerated and the actual TR is between $3474 and $4410. The difference lies in whether you are looking at the TR via the D1 or W1 TF. Obviously this is a lot of information and possibilities to take in, so I will be going over it more directly in this morning's video update. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (2/15/2019)Good morning, traders. Price is attempting to push its way through the descending wedge's resistance as H4 RSI is pushing through its own resistance. H4 MACD is curled up and nearing a bullish cross above centerline. As we can see, the green target, which is based on the height of the wedge, is near the previous swing high. Traders need to be cautious as price nears that area. A close above that swing high is what is needed. A wick above but close below prints a bearish SFP which will likely have price reversing. However, a close above that swing high opens up the targets I discussed yesterday as price begins closing above the pattern resistances. While anything is possible at all times, there is little-to-no reason to think price is ultimately headed down from here at this time. At the very least, we should see price move up toward $3900. A daily close above $3615 should make this much more likely as that gets price back above the daily pivot. I am still not a big fan of the possible IHS but have left it for those of you who are interested in it. BTCUSD Shorts may be finding a temporary bottom at the very least. More importantly, they are nearing the area where they have previously bounced and price headed down as a result. Just because it has happened before does not mean it will continue to happen, though, but it is something to keep an eye on. If Shorts happen to drop below that level this time around it may be an indication that the market is reversing. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
2
BTCUSD H1/D1 charts (2/12/2019)Good morning, traders. Price has continued within the flag and bounced off the 38.2% retracement on the D1 chart as I mentioned I was watching for yesterday. H1 is printing a short-term double bottom with a target of $3620, once price closes above the swing high of $3586 which would confirm it. H1 RSI is just under neutral at 47.3 and butting up against resistance, while H4 RSI has finally retreated to 52 as it bounced off the previous resistance area and is printing a descending broadening wedge, suggesting price may be readying itself to resume its upward momentum soon (as long as it holds). D1 RSI is holding bullishly around 52 while retesting resistance as support at this time as well. Price is sitting on the H4 21 EMA and just below the 21 EMA on the H1 while volume has been picking up in this area. This also puts price just below the daily pivot, so we need to see D1 price closing above that pivot to signal continued bullishness, though I really want to see price closing above the D1 TR's EQ of $3645. The more convincingly price can close above that level, the more bullish it becomes. However, if this level does not hold, I will be looking for the $3450/70 area to provide support. The pattern-based targets remain valid at this time. Ultimately, I am watching price within the pink descending broadening wedge. A move through the wedge's resistance provides a target above the flag's resistance which signals increasingly bullish likeliness if price can follow through beyond that target. That target happens to align with the D1 TR's EQ. However, a drop through the wedge's support signals, at the least, a test of the bottom of the local flag/EQ of the D1 descending channel. I see a lot of traders forcing entries right now. Don't. You should be waiting for price action to tell you which way to trade, not enter just to be in the market. The latter is the easiest way to lose money right after FOMO. BTCUSD longs and shorts are currently rising as a result. Volatility has also dropped off after the surge in action four days ago. Visible orders across the major spot exchanges and Bitmex show dominant demand right now which is a good sign if we can see an influx of buying. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
1