Get started

Tradingrange

BTC/USD H4/D1 charts (1/1/2019)Good morning, traders. Welcome to 2019. I am seeing a lot more of the doom and gloom lately, which should be interesting in terms of overall retail sentiment. Bakkt being delayed once again has traders sure that price will rollover and continue further down now, but as we know the market rarely does what the herd thinks it will. That doesn't mean it won't fall further, only that there is a certain greater level of risk associated with following the herd at certain levels within price movement. We will take a look at the monthly and yearly candles during this morning's live stream. Not a lot has changed with the charts since yesterday, so we will zoom out to the H4 and see what there is to see. I have noted a horizontal blue TR as well as a descending channel or wedge that is currently printing. The reactions continue to lose steam while the rallies have become increasingly stronger during this likely corrective movement from the recent $4236 price high. As we can see, the most recent candle shows a large wick through the pattern's descending resistance and is capped by the McGinley Dynamic in pink. Could this be a stop run before a thrust up? We will have to continue to watch, but let this be a reminder that traders should never set their stops and entries just on the other side of support or resistance as they run the risk of being caught in a liquidity engineering event such as a stop run. RSI is trending down within a possible channel or wedge as well. The latter, as with price, suggests upward movement while the former suggested downward, so a close above resistance is what you are looking for if you want to see price rising. A move up and through the price pattern's resistance should send price targeting the swing high at $3970. If price falls below the swing low at $3566, then my expectation is a move down to $3340-$3440, with the greatest emphasis on the yellow zone within it, especially around its EQ at $3391, as that gets price to the 78.6 retracement of the impulsive move up. Failure for that box to hold will have me looking at the S2 pivot at $3209 for support. My concern continues to be that RSI has not dipped into oversold yet since it hit overbought. That doesn't mean it can't go up from here, only that it causes me to use more caution with any potential shorter-term long trade. The D1 chart shows price sitting on the pivot and just above the McGinley Dynamic. A close below those increases the likelihood that price will be headed toward that lower target mentioned above. However, a close above the descending resistance line will likely see price heading above the R1 pivot. Traders can also watch for RSI to close above its own resistance as an indication that price is headed toward the R1 pivot. Volume is dropping off and the MACD is evening out, so we will likely have a bigger move coming sooner rather than later. Make sure you notice that the H4 chart is Bitstamp while this D1 chart is Bitfinex. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
1
BTC/USD 15min/H4 charts (12/31/2018)Good morning, traders. The descending red resistance line I spoke about on Friday turned out to be exactly what we should be watching as price popped up and through as I was publishing my outlook. The H12 bullish divergence on the MACD histogram also was key. As I continue to tell traders, if you are intent on using EW you should also remain aware of patterns, divergences, etc. that may be setting up. This becomes especially important when the EW count is trying at best. At this point, the count remains anything but easy, so we will look for patterns and we can see a large possible flag printing. The target based on the size of the flag (descending channel) is $535 above the point at which price breaches the top of the flag. The target based on the flagpole is about $1115 above the point at which price breaches the top of the flag. Within that flag, we should also note the impulse wave on December 28th and the corrective nature of the waves since then. This leads me to believe we have more movement to the upside in store before any possible significant movement to the downside. At this point, price has already retraced almost 61.8% of the entire move up, so it would technically be an opportune place to bounce. As of this time, the flag only has one touch of the top which means we can't definitively state it is a flag/descending channel. In order to do so, we need four alternating touches of support and resistance. I have drawn in the smaller possible channels as they are playing out inside that flag on the H4 chart. A breach of the smaller descending channel should provide a target of the larger descending channel's resistance. Remember, price could potentially be printing a large IHS as well, but we really need to see volume expanding and candle spread increasing as it completes the right shoulder and breaks through the neckline. Failure to do so will most likely lead to failed follow through toward the proposed target around $5300/$5400. Currently, I am watching the H4 RSI for a breach through its resistance to signal bullish momentum. On the 15 minute chart, we can see that price is bouncing between the pivot and the S1 pivot. Like the H4 RSI, I am watching the 15 minute RSI for a break through its resistance as well. Notice that in both charts, price is consolidating at the HVN and is sitting just under the McGinley Dynamic. With RSI trending upward from oversold on the 15 minute, and nearly so on the H4, logic would suggest that we will see that move up and through all that resistance, but traders should still use caution and look for confirmations before entering. Price took the road more traveled this past year and moved to the downside a bit. As I warned yesterday, traders should've been waiting for a confirmation in either direction which could've been either the close above the swing high or below the swing low, or it could've been the close above the triangle's resistance or below its support. The thing I'm watching most at the moment is the H12 MACD histogram. It is currently printing hidden bullish divergence (lower lows on the histogram but higher lows on price between December 3rd and today so far. I say so far because we need to see a shorter histogram print to confirm this divergence. As such, price could fall further before printing it. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
3
BTC/USD 15min/12H charts (12/28/2018)Good morning, traders. Price took the road more traveled this past year and moved to the downside a bit. As I warned yesterday, traders should've been waiting for a confirmation in either direction which could've been either the close above the swing high or below the swing low, or it could've been the close above the triangle's resistance or below its support. The thing I'm watching most at the moment is the H12 MACD histogram. It is currently printing hidden bullish divergence (lower lows on the histogram but higher lows on price between December 3rd and today so far. I say so far because we need to see a shorter histogram print to confirm this divergence. As such, price could fall further before printing it. The H12 chart shows the possible 5 waves up as well as the bull flag that is printing. A move up and out of this flag should have a target that is about $1114.56 above the point at which price pushes through and continues out of the flag. This could get price up into the $5000s if it happens sooner rather than later. We also know that a potential HS is printing as well, though I remain concerned about the volume in the head of that pattern. A completion of this pattern should have price targeting the mid-$5000s if it happens sooner rather than later. I'm still not convinced of this wave count at the moment, though, so I am watching for signs of movement as price and RSI push through support and/or resistance. If the count is correct, then I have a proposed target on the 15 minute chart. But the shortness of the proposed B wave is giving me pause as to the correctness of the count. This 5 waves down could also be the A wave, with the 3 wave B upcoming, followed by a possible 5 waves C down if it is a zig zag. So, if price pushes through the red descending dotted line then my expectation is up, whether it be for the larger wave 3 or the smaller wave B. The latter should give us a target of $4050/$4100 or so. I'm just having trouble at the moment squaring up a fifth wave down if it does push through that red resistance at this time. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
2
BTC/USD 15min/4H charts (12/27/2018)Good morning, traders. Not a whole lot to talk about this morning but I'll do my best to give you multiple views of current price action. Bitcoin's price continues to trade sideways within a small TR which I have labeled on the 15 minute chart. We can also see that a possible Adam and Eve double bottom is building. This won't be confirmed unless price closes above the swing high between them at $3863.34. We can watch the RSI for a sign of strength which should manifest itself as RSI passing through the descending resistance line. If price closes above that swing high, then we should be looking for a target of around $4050 based on the height of the proposed double bottom. However, a close below the swing low of $3674.73 would suggest further downward momentum. Price is currently printing a symmetrical triangle. As usual, these patterns have no directional bias. The height of the triangle is about $170, so traders can use this as an initial target upon a close above the triangle's resistance or below its support by adding it to the former's point of breach or subtracting it from the latter's point of breach. So, as we were yesterday, we continue to watch the swing high and low for entry signals. Beware of possible bearish or bullish SFPs, which is why we always wait for a close and we don't immediately buy or sell the breach. The 4H chart shows us the large blue accumulation TR and the much smaller purple distribution or re-accumulation TR. Looking closely, we can see that price is currently ranging around the pink pivot at the bottom of the purple TR. It also shows us the red descending wedge and related target as well as the black descending channel and related target. As we can see, price is utilizing the top of that channel as support at this time. These targets suggest further upward movement, rather than down, but risk management demands that we see movement progress in that direction before we go long from here (i.e. a close above the swing high on the 15 minute chart). The two lower yellow zones give us an idea of likely reversal or, at the very least, consolidation areas if price heads down. A drop through that dashed ascending black support line would signal a likely move toward these areas. Traders need to be aware of possible hidden bearish divergence printing on the MACD's histogram if price can't get a surge up similar to the recent drop from the top of the purple TR. The histogram is quite short so the longer it takes price to move up once it goes, the more likely that is to play out. As always, another way to look at that move down and current sideways action, is that it is a checkmate pattern playing out which means we would expect a move back up to the drop's point of origin (top of the purple TR) in the same sudden fashion thereby eliminating the risk of hidden bearish divergence. Normally, I would at least expect a move up toward the top of the purple TR again, but we may not get that. Traders should not be too anxious to enter at this time, rather they should wait for price to give them a signal of likely direction. The most promising bit of data I am seeing at the moment is that volume on the reactions on the 15 minute chart continue to drop. The first step is for price to close above the pivot on this short TF, then above the red triangle, and finally above the swing high. If we can continue to see volume dropping on the reactions as price does that, we should be good to go toward the aforementioned targets. On the 4H TF, we want to see RSI push through its descending resistance line to signal stronger likely upward momentum which would suggest a move up to the top of the purple TR. As mentioned during yesterday morning's live stream, price has hit the 50% retracement of the move up so far. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
1
BTC/USD 15min/4H charts (12/26/2018)Good morning, traders. I hope you are enjoying the holidays and had a great time with friends and family yesterday. I am still battling these cedar allergies, so we will see how long I can keep the live stream going this morning. The last analysis I wrote had us working on wave 4 as a running flat as well as a re-accumulation without a Spring. Since that time, price dropped below A which could make it an expanded flat, and re-accumulation could still be the plan that's playing out with this drop below A being a Spring. Wave C will generally retrace about 1.62% of Wave A. That means we could see price ultimately heading toward $3520 before making a higher high. We also know that an expanded flat usually targets the 50% retracement of the previous move which is where we hit exactly with the lowest part of this move down. The blue TR denotes the large accumulation zone and the purple TR denotes the smaller distribution or re-accumulation zone. There is also the possibility that we could've completed 5 waves up with this current move down being wave 2. In that case, a move toward $3500/$3600 would be the 61.8% retracement of wave 1, which is what we generally look for as a sign of another strong impulse wave readying itself. That level is also the next area of support. However, we have just seen price print a descending wedge which often, but not always, marks a reversal. This current level of support also means that price is hovering around the 4H pivot while printing a small accumulation or redistribution pattern. The thing that bothers me the most at this time is that the 4H RSI did not return to oversold yet, which leads me to believe that if price continues up from here, it is most likely completing wave 5. The corrective larger wave 2 should then take RSI back down to oversold. Most noticeable is that the volume on this drop back down has been much smaller than the volume on the push up. Remember, expanding volume with wider-spread candles is a sign that volume and price action are in agreement which means it is a trend. In this case, that is what we saw with the move up from the price lows, so demand is in control at this time. In either case, we should at least have one more leg up toward the low-to-mid $5000s. Whether that is a wave 3 (if we've had 5 waves up for the first larger wave) or a Wave C is yet to be seen. Zooming in to the 15 minute chart, we can see the recent descending wedge as well as what appears to possibly be a descending broadening wedge. The two lows which I have marked with the blue arcs could potentially be a double bottom. This, as always, won't be confirmed until price closes above the highest point between them which is $3863.34. If it does, then the target based on that pattern would be around $4050. This puts it close to what would be the completion of wave 3, which makes sense. The key levels I am watching are the swing low at $3674.73 and that $3863.34 swing high. A close below the former or above the latter indicates the direction traders should be looking for price to continue taking. A closer look at this TF also shows a small blue TR. This appears to be accumulation on this small TF as we can see demand building and supply shrinking as denoted by the volume and price action. We can also see that the proposed wave movement lines up well with the volume nodes and the TRs, with this 5th wave up on the smaller TF coming to a halt right at the top of the purple re-accumulation? TR/large blue accumulation TR. Taking a step back to look at the 1D, we can clearly see accumulation printing out. If we get a bounce anywhere from here to around $3500, then we should likely see accumulation playing out with a Spring. Instead, the low where we bounce would be the LPS. As I have mentioned numerous times before, a Spring is never required though it happens more times than not. This may also print the lowest point of the right shoulder of an IHS, as we have discussed many times before, which would give us that low-to-mid $5000s target. If that is a wave 3, then we can expect wave 5 to ultimately notch a top around $6000. If it is a wave C, then we can expect price to head back toward the 2018 lows. If price, in the near-term, continues lower than the $3500 general area, I would be looking for a break below the 2018 price low, creating a Spring, and then the bounce back up and out of the large blue TR. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
BTC/USD 1H/1D charts (12/21/2018)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin has held relatively steady between $3900 and $4100. We know that it should be retracing after such a bullish push up, but we don't know whether it is done rising for the time being or if it has just a bit further to go. There is a case to be made for a $4200/$4360 target as we discussed in yesterday update as well as the morning live stream. As a matter of fact, the 1H R5 pivot sits at $4305. Additionally, we can see a diamond pattern forming, as well as an ascending triangle in the right side of that diamond. A successful close above that triangle's resistance produces a target of $4250 and above the diamond's descending resistance would provide a target of $4360. That move up toward the diamond target would also print an ascending wedge thereby likely marking the end of the upward momentum. We should also look for any upside movement to likely be halted by the ascending resistance of the diamond, which happens to align with the proposed diamond target. An indication of upward progression getting under way would likely be 1H RSI pushing through it's descending resistance. A close below the swing low at $3886 should signal that the retrace is in progress while a close above the swing high at $4172 sets into motion the higher targets mentioned. Traders can also watch for a close below the ascending green channel's support. The local red TR suggests possible distribution, as price consolidates just under the large blue TR's resistance, but the final thrust up just a bit higher could be the UTAD before markdown into that retracement. The move into the area between the blue TR's AR and failed upthrust (denoted with the black horizontal line around $4415) is generally what we expect with accumulation after the TR's Phase B ST has printed. I will be looking to go short in either of these cases but for right now will just continue watching the chart to find that entry. Currently, I am expecting the retracement to target the $3500-$3600 level, but that level may change slightly depending on whether price heads up for one final push or not. Attempting to trade this area is extremely risky and, in my belief, not worth the profit one may potential make. For me, there's not enough profit available to make it worth my while for that level of risk that I would need to take on in order to enter right now. Looking at the 1D, we can see that we've had five days of green candles and this current sixth candle creating, at the very least, a pause. We still have a target of $4850 based on the large descending channel that price closed above yesterday. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
1
How To Read Charts (Sec. 2) Mastering Reversals, Trends & RangesHey Traders, Here is Section 2 of the "How to read structure (Charts) Tutorial". In this Section, you will learn some of the methods that professional trend traders use to bring home a profit week after week, month after month, & year after year! In this Section, I will be explaining- - The Characteristics of a healthy trend (Chart 6) - A simple method that makes identifying trend reversals easy (Chart 7) - Why you should not rush your trades plus when & why you should have a neutral biased as a trend trader (Chart 8) - Mastering Reversals & how to trade them properly (Chart 9) - Continuation of GBPUSD Structure Analysis ~ How To Identify & Avoid Trading Ranges To Improve Your Trend Trading Strategies ~ The Importance Of A Candles Closing Price. (Chart 10) - One of my trend trading rules to avoid trading ranges & Intro to the 1st part of Section 3. (Chart 11) Section 1 of this tutorial is linked below. Please start with section 1 as it will lay some of the ground work for this section & will also show these methods on actual charts. This section of the tutorial is a breakdown of the methods taught in section 1 and when studied together, can really give you a good understanding of how trends, reversals, ranges etc work. Please feel free to leave feedback below regarding if these tutorials have been helpful. I will be releasing many more of these tutorials in future ideas and your feedback really helps me to improve them! It may take you a couple minutes to get use to the format of these tutorials so take your time & read over the charts multiple times as there is a lot of good information provided within these tutorials. Chart 6- Characteristics of a healthy trend Chart 7- A simple method that makes identifying trend reversals easy Chart 8- Why you should not rush your trades plus when & why you should have a neutral biased as a trend trader Chart 9- Mastering Reversals & how to trade them properly Chart 10- Continuation of GBPUSD Structure Analysis ~ How To Identify & Avoid Trading Ranges To Improve Your Trend Trading Strategies ~ The Importance Of A Candles Closing Price. Chart 11- One of my trend trading rules to avoid trading ranges & Intro to the 1st part of Section 3. You Have Completed Section 2 Of The "How To Read Structure (Charts) Tutorial. Charts 6-11"! Thank you for taking the time to finish this section of the tutorial! I hope Section 1 and 2 have been helpful to you! In section 3, we will start looking at how you can use price action/structure & the methods taught in this tutorial to design your own trading strategy! After all of the sections are complete, you will have the tools needed to read structure, create your own rules based trading strategy and much more so please stick around as this is only the beginning of a very educational tutorial. Thanks Traders!
Education
by Alec40
16
How To Read Structure (Charts) Tutorial- Section: 3 Charts 12-18The highly anticipated release of the How to read structure tutorial is finally here! Thank you for your patience traders, lets get right into it. In Section one and two of the how to read structure tutorial, we spent a lot of time going over the process that I use to identify potential reversals as well as what I consider to be confirmation of a trend reversal. In this section we are going to learn why I use this process & how it helps me identify the difference between a pull back and an actual reversal. We are also going to take our first detailed look into how this process is used to identify trading ranges as they are occurring & we will end with a brief introduction regarding how to properly use multiple timeframes to increase your strategies performance and overall returns. Section 3 Will Consist of 7 Charts: Chart 12- Simple Pullbacks Explained. Chart 13- One Simple Way To Identify A Fake Reversal + Identifying The Complex Pullback. Chart 14- My Method Of Identifying Trading Ranges Before They Occur. Chart 15/16- Continuation Of Chart 14 & Why The Complex Pullback Method Is Effective. Chart 17/18- An Effective Way To Use Multiple Timeframes With A Strategy. Chart 12- Simple Pullbacks Explained & Ground Work For Learning The Complex Pullback Method The majority of people who try their hand at trading, do not have any formal training or education of any kind therefore most of the trading related knowledge they learn is obtained through free sources, books or online courses that never fully go all the way, leaving them with a ton of questions and confused. Proper chart reading and structure analysis is one of the most commonly misunderstood aspects amongst novice traders, and at little to no fault of their own. It is important to understand that not all structure analysis is the performed the same, each trader may have his/her own process for reading structure so if this is a topic you wish to learn, I highly recommend learning one traders specific process to avoid confusion and conflicts with education that you may have learned elsewhere. Chart 13- One Simple Way To Identify A Fake Reversal & Identifying The Complex Pullback (my process) It is said and assumed that- "In order to identify a trading range, price must trade in it for an extended period of time". This is true with the traditional method of technical analysis however the Complex Pullback is an advanced structure analysis method that I have used to successfully identify trading ranges as they are occurring for years... With this method, we do not have to wait for a trading range to be established before identifying it as one, which gives us the ability to spot & avoid many false reversals. Incorporating this method into your strategies, can dramatically increase its performance & returns. Please see the chart below to get a better understanding of how this method works. Chart 14- My Method Of Identifying Trading Ranges Before They Occur Chart 15/16- Continuation Of Chart 14 & Why The Complex Pullback Method Is Effective Each 4hr candle represents 4hrs of price action therefore, each 4hr candle can be seen as 4- 1hr candles. Lower timeframes, can be used to obtain more information about price action. For example- If your strategy uses a specific candlestick as an entry signal, dropping down to the 1hr chart would give you an additional 3 candles which would result in 3 more opportunities for your entry signal to appear. Chart 17/18- An Effective Way To Use Multiple Timeframes With A Strategy As always, I hope this tutorial was helpful to you. Please leave your feedback in the comments below, & if you got value from this please share & give the tutorial a thumbs up. Your Shares & Likes really help to get these tutorials out to traders who are trying to learn, While your feedback lets me know that these free tutorials are helpful to you. I will continue to share them if they are of value. If you would like to learn more about how to read charts, and structure based trading please see sections 1 & 2 of the "How to read charts, structure based trading tutorials" (linked in the related ideas section below) or head over to TradersNsights: Courses/Lessons Forex Coaching To request a tutorial or topics you would like to see in the future, Fill out a quick request form and enter "Request" in the subject field or simply comment below. More Free Trading Related Education
Education
by Alec40
40
BTC/USD 30 min/4H charts (12/20/2018)Good morning, traders. I was wrong yesterday and it appears that Bitcoin had one more leg up. This is why I continue to stress the importance of risk management, not only in your entry but also in your exit. If you watch my morning live streams then you know I consistently discuss the importance of having your exits figured out before you enter a trade. This includes, as I have stated numerous times, that point at which the trade goes against you. Fortunately, my manual trailing stop loss was hit and I was able to still notch a 16% portfolio profit on yesterday's move down while I slept as a result. Sure, I missed the extra bit of upward momentum but I ended up with a significant profit for one day's trade and I can now look to short once more this morning. Last night's move up touched the top of the TR which also happens to be the 4H R4 pivot as well as the target off the smaller wedge I discussed in the Tuesday update and noted as the red dotted line, though I believe I referred to it as dashed (). The 30 minute chart gives you an updated EW count which aligns with the slightly higher grey price tool target based on the larger wedge's width. The MACD histogram is already printing hidden bullish divergence as well signalling a possible last subwave up. However, we could see a truncated 5th subwave. The end of this first large wave, around $4220, would put price where we would expect it to be in terms of accumulation (between the AR and failed upthrust's high). For reference, please refer to the Wyckoff accumulation schematics. Furthermore, a 61.8% retrace from the projected $4220 high would be at the EQ of the light blue demand zone. Price would also be getting support from the ascending black dotted line. All of this strengthens the likelihood of yesterday's mentioned orange path, though the LPS would be about $100-$150 higher at that point. Based on this larger TR that we have been working with for a few weeks now, if we get a bounce from that blue demand, I believe the possibility of a Spring would be greatly diminished which means we could very well have seen our lowest point of this correction. Refer, specifically, to Wyckoff accumulation schematic #2 as a general guide. It also means that we should expect to end up back in the 2018 TR within the next few weeks at the most. None of this guarantees that we won't go down further, whether it's just for a Spring or to even lower targets, but it does provide more support for the narrative that I am discussing. As such, traders must continue to concentrate most of their effort on their risk management. I have outlined the proposed path on the 4H chart. As mentioned previously, yesterday's Fed comment that it will raise interest rates .25% gave DXY a strong initial bounce. However, the Fed sounded much less dovish than anticipated which caused the stock market to drop. This drop took price below the 2018 TR and I expect that we will see continues downward movement, at least in the near term though we should at least expect some sort of relief bounce before too long. I will continue to watch price action and volume to get an idea if price will make another attempt at the top of the TR or if it will find resistance at the bottom. Since that initial DXY pop, we have seen DXY continue its downward path as I mentioned we were likely to see. As a matter of fact, DXY hit my 96.20 target exactly as traders/investors seem convinced that the Fed will not raise interest rates in 2019 thereby taking the wind out of DXY's sails. As a result, the EUR/USD pair had a strong run overnight, topping out at 1.14857. I was in a short yesterday that hit my trailing stop before this move up late last night, which exited my position in a very small profit (nothing to write home about, but confirmed upward momentum), and I am currently watching price action as I look for an entry today. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
4
BTC/USD 1D chart (12/17/2018)Good morning, traders. As mentioned was likely, during the live streams last week, we are finally seeing the pop that has been building. But we absolutely must see follow through. We still need to see a 4H or higher TF close above the December 9th swing high at $3633.20. That general area also happens to be the 4H pivot, so coming up through the bottom and closing above it would be bullish. A close below the December 15th swing low at $3179.54 would suggest further downward momentum. At this time, anything else is part of the "wait and see" game as price has merely hit previous diagonal support as resistance so far. Consolidation in or around this area should have price targeting $3500-$3550, I believe. This would have price printing a descending channel with four alternating touches, meaning we would normally expect a pullback and then push through the channel resistance. Price has, thus far, held its ground rather than dumping immediately as has usually been the case with these sudden strong surges upward during this corrective cycle. That doesn't guarantee that price will continue up, only that we are seeing a bit of a difference in this current movement which makes it more possible than usual that it will. Larger sell orders have been placed multiple times this morning but then pulled as price failed to fall significantly after the pump. In fact, demand support appears to be building underneath price. 1D RSI has pushed through the resistance at 32-33 that I've been mentioning, so a close above that could be bullish for the pair. We need to see price printing a higher high than December 12th's $3490 or run the risk of hidden bearish divergence printing on RSI. If you have been following me, then you know there are multiple bullish patterns that have been printing. These may now be on the verge of playing out. The most important at this time, it would seem, is the 1D red descending wedge. A successful close above the wedge's resistance should bring into play a target of $1150 above the point price breached that resistance. If that happens within the next few days, we would be looking at price making a move into the low-to-mid $4000s at the very least. However, today's move pulled price out of a slightly smaller descending red wedge whose support is the same but with resistance denoted by the descending red dotted line. This pattern would give us a target of $4145/50 as shown by the orange price range tool. The 1D pivot sits at $4660, so a close above that should prove to be significantly bullish for the pair. Don't forget, we have discussed the possibility of a trip down to the $2500/$2600 area as well, but the further down you continue to look, the greater the likelihood we won't make it that far. What this means for traders is increased risk. The question is, would the increase in profit justify the exponential increase in risk? Only you can decide that for yourself. A good rule of thumb is that if your reward doesn't increase 2x for every 1x of risk your trade increases, then it isn't worth it. The idea is that you should be looking for exponential compensation in order to take on increased risk. My EUR/USD long continues to produce profit, but the pair may be on the verge of a pullback. 1H DXY is bouncing off oversold as it is being rejected at the ascending wedge's support-turned-resistance. Based on that pattern, DXY should be targeting 96.16, but ultimately I'm looking for it to potentially reach 94.10 or so. That would mean more upside for other majors against the USD, or downside for the USD against the other majors (depending on how you would prefer to look at it). As always, this is a generalization and specific country USD pairs will be dependent upon the other country's economic situation as well. The Fed is set to speak on Wednesday and there is growing pressure for dovish comments, but not too dovish, as an attempt to provide support for the stock market's drop. Speaking of which, the DJIA gapped down on the open this morning but should find support around $23675. If it does not find support by that level, then the stock market is worse off than most believe. A bounce from there could see the DJIA target $24,300 before falling further. Traders should watch for 1D bullish divergence on the MACD's histogram to give a bit of a bump. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
SBUX: Shift of Sentiment Pattern Leads Gap Up to PlatformSBUX has now confirmed the gap gains by holding well above the trading range highs. This provides very strong support for the stock to continue moving upward. This daily chart of the stock shows a Shift of Sentiment™ Pattern with the Accumulation/Distribution indicator. The shifting pattern begins with the common gap down by HFTs in June and then the VWAP automated selling by the smaller funds to the final low. Then, the stock moves in a typical Dark Pool Pattern out of the low. Pro traders and HFTs gap the stock up in November on earnings news. Another platform is developing now above that gap which establishes more support at this level.
NASDAQ:SBUX
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
BTC/USD 1H/1D charts (12/14/2018)Good morning, traders. Once again, it pays to watch the morning live stream. After the breakdown of the small descending triangle, I stated that the most likely scenario was to see price print an SFP around $3200, which is exactly what happened. Price is now consolidating toward the large red descending broadening wedge's resistance. If price pops up and through it, then price should target $3360/$3370. Failure to get that pop will likely see price targeting the $3000 area. I would not be surprised to see this latter scenario develop as there appears to be a concerted effort to push price down toward that level. Watching the order books, any time price gets to the point that it should pop, we see supply being dumped onto buyers while demand remains significant below $3200. One likely explanation is that there are large buyers in that area who are trying to get their orders filled. So, it is just something to keep in mind as price moves. Price is currently working off the hidden bearish divergence on the 1H TF. This clears the way for a possible move up as described above without the impediment of such a divergence to keep it from ascending in the near-term. The 1D saw a breakdown of the pennant that was printing. The target of that breakdown is $2950 which would pull price through the bottom of the descending wedge and back to the dashed red resistance line which began with the drop out of the $6000s. This would produce a strong bear trap if it plays out prior to December 16/17th. Interestingly, the ATH was on December 17, 2018. The conspiracy theories would run hard and long if that date this year were to produce the lowest point of this correction. There is a possible double bottom printing as well, if not the left shoulder and head of an IHS. RSI continues to flirt with oversold following recent bullish divergence. It has been printing higher lows toward the area of resistance around 32-33. Logically, since we are bouncing off the ascending channel's support, we would look for price to target the top of the channel but this is not guaranteed. Reaching that point also puts price at the red wedge's resistance. Don't forget that a close above that resistance sets up a target of $1150 above the point at which price breaches it. Additionally, reaching that target confirms the double bottom (if an IHS doesn't play out first) thereby creating a target of $5430. If the IHS prints, then I will update with a target based on that particular pattern as well. Don't forget, we have discussed the possibility of a trip down to the $2500/$2600 area as well, but the further down you continue to look, the greater the likelihood we won't make it that far. What this means for traders is increased risk. The question is, would the increase in profit justify the exponential increase in risk? Only you can decide that for yourself. A good rule of thumb is that if your reward doesn't increase 2x for every 1x of risk your trade increases, then it isn't worth it. The idea is that you should be looking for exponential compensation in order to take on increased risk. The DXY continued up overnight and into this morning but appears to be potentially topping out one more. I closed out my EUR/USD long yesterday for about 30 pips of profit after it was confirmed that price would not advance any further. I am now long EUR/USD once more. Stocks continue to have a bad time. As usual, early morning buying resulted in distribution the rest of the day. There was a bit of demand showing up toward the end of it, but not enough to create anything more than a doji for the 1D candle. Price now has a lower gap to fill as a result. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
1
AMZN: Topping Formation Incomplete with VolatilityAMZN has a topping formation which is incomplete at this time. Incomplete means that the stock has not broken through the strong nearby, short term technical support level YET. It may or may not. The stock can always shift sideways as BA did, as an example, to pattern out the excessive stock price uptrend created by speculation. Trading range corrections, as opposed to down-trending corrections, take much longer because the stock price remains well above the company’s fundamental value. The financials have to catch up to the price per share. For AMZN, there is also rotation, aka lowering of stock shares held by the Giant Dark Pools, evident in studying the price trend against the Accumulation/Distribution indicator. This increases the risk of sudden downside action. For now, buybacks and smaller funds buying on a dip are holding the stock up. Watch for increased volatility as a precursor to more downside action.
NASDAQ:AMZN
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
1
BTC/USD 1H/1D charts (12/13/2018)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin continues to move sideways as it retraced overnight and found support around the descending red previous resistance line as mentioned it was likely to do during yesterday morning's live stream. This morning, we can see price rising and, now, sitting around the McGinley Dynamic line and HVNs. Traders who were paying attention noticed the 1H bullish divergence in MACD and its histogram, noted by the blue arrow on price, and were able to profit by going long at that time. Currently, any move by price below the ascending dotted black line should have traders watching the December 11th swing low at $3292.65. A 1H close below that should have price targeting the blue December 7th TR swing low at $3210, with a 1H close below that signalling a likely test of the $3000 level. A close above the descending yellow channel that price is printing should have it targeting the 1H pivot at $3617.52. A close above that should leave price targeting the $3970-$4025 area. The 1H MACD is attempting a bullish cross at this time as well. The 1D remains the same with price printing an ascending wedge/possible bear flag within a large red descending wedge. Possible double bottom printing as well, if not the left shoulder and head of an IHS. RSI is just now peeking back out of oversold following recent bullish divergence. It has been printing higher lows toward the area of resistance around 32-33. Logically, since we are bouncing off the ascending channel's support, we would look for price to target the top of the channel. Reaching that point also puts price at the red wedge's resistance. Don't forget that a close above that resistance sets up a target of $1150 above the point at which price breaches it. Additionally, reaching that target confirms the double bottom (if an IHS doesn't play out first) thereby creating a target of $5430. If the IHS prints, then I will update with a target based on that particular pattern as well. The DXY jumped up this morning but appears to be potentially topping out. As such, it's been a volatile morning with FOREX USD pairs. I am currently long EUR/USD, but just in the short term for now as the market continues to digest this morning's ECB news, especially in relation to the recent FOMC interest rate remarks. Stocks continue to scream their weakness to anyone paying attention. Yesterday saw more of the same -- early morning buying, then distribution throughout the rest of the day. DJIA gapped up this morning but I don't believe that the market will see much bullishness out of it and I continue to see further downward momentum in the cards. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
BTC/USD 1H/1D charts (12/12/2018)Good morning, traders. Yesterday, we discussed the descending channel and blue wedge that price was printing and, sure enough, the move through their resistance precipitated bullish momentum. Price then found resistance at the descending red line I mentioned as well. The target, based on the width of the wedge, should be $3486, and based on the channel should be $3500. Beyond that, $3995 would be the next viable target based on a larger red descending broadening wedge with the 1H R1 pivot sitting just above it at $4025. Depending on how long it takes price to reach that target, the next larger descending broadening wedge may take price to a $4540 target, which is also the 1H R2 pivot. Finally, that would pull price out of the large brown descending broadening wedge we have been talking about since last week which provides a target of $1050 above the point of breach. I will be taking a closer look at these patterns during this morning's live stream. A look at the 1H chart shows price continuing to find resistance at the descending red line, but consolidating against it at this time. This current level is a stronger area of support on this TF as the high volume node indicates, which also makes it a stronger area of resistance when price is sitting under it. RSI is currently sitting at 64.5, nearing that oversold level. But there's enough room left in it for a push up toward the lower targets at least before a retrace and potential attempt higher. We can also see increasing volume from the point at which price retested the blue wedge/black descending channel resistance as support. The 1D shows much the same as yesterday -- price printing an ascending wedge/possible bear flag within a large red descending wedge. Possible double bottom printing as well, if not the left shoulder and head of an IHS. RSI is just now peeking back out of oversold following recent bullish divergence. Logically, since we are bouncing off the ascending channel's support, we would look for price to target the top of the channel. Reaching that point also puts price at the red wedge's resistance. Don't forget that a close above that resistance sets up a target of $1150 above the point at which price breaches it. Additionally, reaching that target confirms the double bottom (if an IHS doesn't play out first) thereby creating a target of $5430. If the IHS prints, then I will update with a target based on that particular pattern as well. We could also see hidden bearish divergence print on MACD's histogram if price doesn't move above the December 4th swing high at $4034. It is currently printing a higher high on that histogram. So, we need to see continued strengthening of price movement upward until that point to avoid that divergence. Bitfinex BTCUSD longs have continued to rise as shorts are looking at a temporary bottom right now. The 1D volume and price action look very similar to April's low, and I will be discussing that during this morning's live stream as well. If it continues to play out as such, then we should expect a spike in price and volume today or, more likely, tomorrow. But that's a big "if" and highly speculative. The current swing low is sitting at $3210 on Bitstamp. A close below this level on the 4H or higher TF should signal a move down to $2900/$3000, which was the swing low region of the September 2017 correction. However, beware of a drop below and subsequent close above $3210 on a 4H or higher TF. That would print a bullish SFP that should send price upward, at least in the near-term. Price closing above the swing high of $3633.20 should signal upward momentum, but there has been significant activity in the $3600-$3800 range indicating resistance waiting in that area. So, traders would still need to remain careful. Because of this resistance, we could see a bearish SFP print which should send price downward, at least in the short term. I will be looking for price to target the 4H R1 pivot at $4025 if price closes above that swing high while keeping in mind the resistance as spoken about. The DXY is bouncing a bit this morning and stocks are looking to have a positive day as the major US indexes are up more than 1 percent in the premarket. Because Bitcoin is a risky asset, the bounce in the broader market should also provide a bounce in cryptocurrencies which would be inline with what I discussed above. However, it remains my believe that any bounce in that broader market is nothing more than a relief bounce and that stocks remain in distribution. That does not mean we can't see a new all time high, but I would rather that we didn't because it would encourage retail traders to FOMO in and the result would be the larger interests selling into them in one large swoop. This is known as a UTAD (upthrust after distribution) in Wyckoff terms. Remember, if DXY continues to strengthen today then that means that the major currencies, in general, should fall against the USD. So keep that in mind if trading FOREX. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
BTC/USD 1H/1D charts (12/11/2018)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin never could get going yesterday and isn't looking too strong at all today. As a matter of fact, we are currently seeing a bit of a sell-off as I type this. However, we should zoom out to the 4H chart and note that volume has continued to drop on the reactions and rise on the rallies since November 14th. Not only is the volume dropping on the reactions, but the candle spread has also been decreasing during those reactions as well. As I have pointed out numerous times, this is a sign that the current trend is exhausting itself. That doesn't tell us exactly when or where the trend will reverse, only that we should be aware it is growing increasingly likely that it will do so sooner rather than later in the grand scheme of things. So where does that leave us? The current swing low is sitting at $3210 on Bitstamp. A close below this level on the 4H or higher TF should signal a move down to $2900/$3000, which was the swing low region of the September 2017 correction. However, beware of a drop below and subsequent close above $3210 on a 4H or higher TF. That would print a bullish SFP that should send price upward, at least in the near-term. Price closing above the swing high of $3633.20 should signal upward momentum, but there has been significant activity in the $3600-$3800 range indicating resistance waiting in that area. So, traders would still need to remain careful. Because of this resistance, we could see a bearish SFP print which should send price downward, at least in the short term. I will be looking for price to target the 4H R1 pivot at $4025 if price closes above that swing high while keeping in mind the resistance as spoken about. Looking at the charts another way, there is the possibility that the ascending channel that price is in the process of printing at this time on the 1D could be a bear flag. A breakdown of this flag would signal likely further downward price progression. The 1H chart shows the TR that has been playing out for the past four days. Traders should be mindful of the descending black channel that price is attempting to print. A close above the possible channel's resistance would indicate likely further price advance, however we could see price continue below the SC before then as price prints a Spring which would most likely also print the bullish SFP I mentioned above. We would want to see low volume on the Spring when compared to the SC. As always, a Spring isn't required so we could see price moving through the channel's resistance from its current location as well. This would print an LPS at this level and we would be then looking for a move above the TR's resistance in the form of an SOS. The descending solid red line is ultimately what we would like to see price moving above to increase the likelihood that price is heading up rather than down in the larger picture. In that case, the noted possible double bottom would be the left shoulder and the head of the IHS. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
1
SPX: Weakest Technical Support = Bear Downtrend RiskOf the 3 big stock market indexes, the S&P500 or SPX is supported currently with the weakest technical support. This is NOT a fundamental support level. IF there is sudden panic due to some catalyst, and there are many potential catalysts waiting in the wings, this support can easily be moved through. A breakdown of this support level brings the risk for the end of the trading range bear market we've had so far and the start of a bear market downtrend.
SP:SPX
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
BTC/USD 4H/1D charts (12/10/2018)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin's move out of the local TR yesterday had a lot of emotional traders on CT upset as they were/are sitting short. This move also pulled price above the descending channel that price has been in since the $4000s and back into the larger TR. Currently, price is hovering around the channel's resistance as well as the bottom of that larger TR. This should be the BUEC/LPS on the local TR as well as possibly the Test of the Spring on the larger one. Based on the blue symmetrical triangle and the flagpole leading to the current flag, price should have a move up to the $3760 area. This would bring it to the equilibrium of the larger TR and expected LPS zone. Price has followed the path I outlined Friday as I was looking for a move to the top of that channel, at the least, followed by "a Test back down toward the bottom of the TR at around $3475." Price wicked down a bit further to $3441.81 but, nonetheless, it has followed that path. This recent move down is on much lighter volume than the previous which would make it a successful Spring and Test, so the upside target mentioned above should be in play now. This being as it is, this could've just been an ST which means we may still see a Spring after the move toward the top of the TR. This would align with some of the EW calls for one more lower low toward $3000, but it may not be required. We will have to continuing watching price action and volume as the targets play out. The 1D shows price in the red descending wedge, suggesting a move back toward the top of it. That would give price a target that is similar to the patterns mentioned above. More importantly, a close above the wedge's resistance would set up a new target of $4950, and reaching that target would confirm the double bottom and it's target would be around $5430 as stated below. 1D RSI is just now attempting to push out of oversold once more. As pointed out last week, bullish divergence had been forming on it over multiple days, so this move up shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. The 4H chart shows price sitting just under the McGinley Dynamic. As always, a close above it increases the odds of continued upward momentum. Friday, I also mentioned how this move down could be printing a double bottom. This pattern won't be confirmed until we see the daily close above the swing high at $4409. So, until then, it is just a possibility. The target based on that pattern would be $5430, which takes price right up to resistance. What happens after that depends on supply and demand. As long as demand is greater than supply, price will press through that level which would bring up the 2018 TR as the target. If price cannot do this, then we will continue looking lower for the targets mentioned throughout last week's other analyses. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
BTC/USD 30 min/1D charts (12/7/2018)Good morning, traders. As I discussed was most likely to happen, during yesterday morning's live stream, Bitcoin dropped down to the $3200/3300 level depending on which exchange you were monitoring. There wasn't any immediate pop back up though so price bears closer attention at this time. The 1D chart shows a nice descending wedge and the 30 minute shows an equally nice ascending channel. The 1D and 3D RSI are printing strong bullish divergence as well. A break upward through the ascending triangle's resistance should have price targeting the $3540 area. This will put it right back into the TR. But it must first close above the McGinley Dynamic on that 30 minute TF. This latest downward move has defined the very likely support level of a descending channel. If this is the case, then the expectation should be a move up to the top of the channel. The target mentioned above brings price to the channel's equilibrium which is the first expected resistance when trading channels. If this move down was a spring associated with the $3475-$4120 TR, then I am looking for the move up as spoken of, followed by a Test back down toward the bottom of the TR at around $3475. A successful Test should then see price making its way back up toward the top of the TR. The volume on the potential Spring was more than I would've liked to have seen, so a good Test (low volume) would be imperative to signal a successful Spring. We would then likely see a pullback at the top of the channel, creating an LPS. Again, we would be looking for low volume on that pullback. We also talked during the live stream about the larger picture and how this move down could be printing a double bottom. This pattern won't be confirmed until we see the daily close above the swing high at $4409. So, until then, it is just a possibility. The target based on that pattern would be $5430, which takes price right up to resistance. What happens after that depends on supply and demand. As long as demand is greater than supply, price will press through that level which would bring up the 2018 TR as the target. But, as mentioned, price must first close above the 30 minute TF McGinley Dynamic in order to set up a possible push through the ascending triangle. If price cannot do this, then we will continue looking lower for the targets mentioned throughout this week in my other analysis. Bitcoin price remains under pressure this morning and its continued attempts to pull itself away from the resistance line that's been keeping it in check since the drop from the $6000s have failed. Price has fallen through the black support line on yesterday's 4H chart which sets up a downside target of $1040 below the point of breach. This would put it between $2677 and the S3 pivot at $2725. Overnight a double bottom was seen on the 15 minute chart which saw price shooting back up toward that black line only to be rejected on its attempt to push through. Volume continues to pick up in the $3600-$3800 area suggesting demand continues to remain present there but the longer price sits in this area the more likely that demand is to dry up. In FOREX news, U.S. NFP numbers were released today and they were pretty ugly (as I have been suggesting was most likely throughout this week) at 150K v. the consensus of 200K. This gave our Discord members opportunity to capitalize and make money as price hit our USD/CAD and EUR/USD targets. I exited my long USD/CHF position near the 50% retrace, at about 25 pips profit, as I stated was my intention during yesterday morning's live stream. I then entered long in that same pair at 0.99079 after the report this morning, which was near the bottom of the drop (because I saw bullish RSI divergence on the 5 minute TF) and exited at 0.99307 for a similar profit. I then shorted at 0.99287 and am currently sitting at about 8 pips profit and expecting continued pressure on the USD as the algos and retail traders work out their positions relating to the news. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
BTC/USD 15 min/3D charts (12/06/2018)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin price remains under pressure this morning and its continued attempts to pull itself away from the resistance line that's been keeping it in check since the drop from the $6000s have failed. Price has fallen through the black support line on yesterday's 4H chart which sets up a downside target of $1040 below the point of breach. This would put it between $2677 and the S3 pivot at $2725. Overnight a double bottom was seen on the 15 minute chart which saw price shooting back up toward that black line only to be rejected on its attempt to push through. Volume continues to pick up in the $3600-$3800 area suggesting demand continues to remain present there but the longer price sits in this area the more likely that demand is to dry up. The current 15 minute pattern appears to be mimicking the previous double bottom from a couple of days earlier as denoted by the blue boxes. RSI has hit oversold and we can see price falling through the dashed red resistance line that has plagued it from the $6000s. Can it pull away this time with volume picking up at these price levels? We will have to wait and see. Liquidated longs continue to pull price downward with every attempt to rise as emotional retail traders FOMO in with heavy leverage. A close below the local swing low at $3629.41 should indicate further downward momentum. However, with RSI already being oversold, my thought is that if price drops below that swing low it will likely close above it creating a Swing Failure Pattern and this should give price a bit of a boost. But remember this is only the 15 minute TF, so it doesn't hold a lot of power in overall price movement. The 3D chart shows diminishing volume since 11/18. Playing the longer TF, until price closes above the descending green line, the general expectation should be continued downward movement. The S4 and S5 pivots from the previous periods sit at $3250, so that would be a good place to look for initial support on this TF if price were to fall further. We can see that RSI remains oversold since 11/15, but is attempting to create higher highs and work itself out of that territory. The challenge remains the same as was mentioned for the shorter TFs the past couple of days -- potential hidden bearish divergence. The most recent MACD histogram high was on 11/6 which had a price high of $6544, and that histogram is pretty short. With price as low as it is, we would need to see strong movement up to avoid that divergence. Depending on where price is when it makes a push up, it is more likely than not that we will see that divergence play out before price can get anywhere near $5200-$6000. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
BTC/USD 4H/1D charts (12/04/2018)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin continues to ride the resistance line from the $6000s and is currently sitting just under the McGinley Dynamic. Not a whole lot has changed and the targets from yesterday remain valid today (review yesterday's linked analysis). The 4H RSI did break out bullishly from its descending wedge, though, and is currently sitting just under bullish at 46.5. I have drawn one more solid black line of resistance. A breach of this should have price moving definitely bullishly for the time. The 4H pivot sits at $4010 and a close above that should encourage more bullish activity. MACD is nearing a bullish cross, but if it does then it is likely that we will see hidden bearish divergence print sooner rather than later unless we see a flurry of buying activity that sends price above $4234.16 quickly. Moving above that level will pull price bullishly out of the green wedge and blue channel while setting up a showdown with the brown wedge's resistance. Remember, the latter is the one I am most interested in at this time, and a successful breach of it should have price targeting $5250/$5300. The 1D RSI is currently printing bullish divergence between 11/30 and 12/3, albeit a bit weak. As long as price closes at the day where it is or higher, that divergence should be locked in. A bullish divergence on the daily should have price rising a few hundred dollars at least. This would see price bullishly breaking out of the patterns noted above. We can clearly see a large flag printing on this TF so the expectation should be that price moves up rather than down. That doesn't mean that it is necessarily doing a full-on reversal, just that we should expect to see it play out like any other flag pattern at any other time in the market for now. The target based on this pattern's flagpole is the previous S4 pivot (blue price tool) at $4900-$4940. Doing so also brings price near the lower green price tool target based on the previous descending channel. OBV has continued to rise on this TF which is good as it indicates that volume and price are in agreement for now. All this being as it is, price finds the same problem on the 1D that it does on the 4H and that is the hidden bearish divergence that is printing. Two days ago, MACD's histogram was slightly higher than yesterday's and today's is much higher than the one from two days ago. So we see higher highs in the histogram and lower highs in price so far between 12/2 and today. This hidden bearish divergence can be avoided if price pushes above the 12/2 high of $4265 by the end of the day. If so, then price can likely avoid the larger hidden bearish divergence between 11/7 and today. But I'm not completely convinced there's enough strength in this short term hidden bearish divergence to overcome the longer term one mentioned, so traders should remain on their toes. The multitude of bullish patterns printing within each other along major resistance right now is the big plus on the bullish side. I really want to see a close above the 11/29 swing high at $4409.77 to feel a bit more bullish at this time. A close above the 1D pivot/1.272 fib extension at $4665 should have price facing resistance at the equilibrium of the yellow zone/1.414 fib extension at $4800 before heading higher to complete the targets. Lower targets, if price breaks down from here, are mentioned in yesterday's update. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks