Get started

Tradingrange

BTC/USD 15 min/6H charts (11/30/2018)Good morning, traders. We've made it to, yet, another Friday. There are a lot of ways to understand price movement and I'll be discussing a few today. CME Bitcoin futures expire in just a few hours and the volatility that I warned about yesterday is showing itself. So far, this morning's move aligns with what I discussed yesterday could happen if price moved out of the ascending channel it was in. I said that I would specifically be looking for a bounce in the $3850-$4000 area with the 15 minute S1 pivot located at $3875. Price hit a low of $3861 before bouncing. If you tuned into yesterday morning's live stream, then you know that at that time I was expecting price to follow this path. At this point, things are looking just as they should. You also may have noticed the Head and Shoulders pattern that printed, so even if you didn't pay attention or give much thought to what I said, it should've had you exiting your long position (if you're a short TF trader) or going short on the drop through the neckline. Ultimately, the target based on that H&S is around $3827, so there's always the possibility price could continue to that point. However, the current low on this drop is where the expectation was as of yesterday due to the demand present. We have bullish divergence printing on the 1H and lower TFs' RSI this morning and the price low tagged the 61.8% retrace of the move up from the candle that started the previous ascending channel's support at $3548.76 to the high of $4409.77. I will be looking for price to exit through this current descending channel's resistance and then to head upward. However, traders who choose to be in the market at the moment shouldn't lie to themselves about the risk they are taking. With CME expiry happening in a few hours, we should expect more volatility which can easily shakeout traders by hitting their stop losses with sudden price surges and/or drops. I have added a large green descending channel to the 15 minute chart that I will be watching. At the very least, I expect price to target the top of it. But a push through that resistance should set up an attempt at the double bottom target of $4765. The width of the potential green channel is about $390, so traders could also use that as a target once price breaches the channel's resistance. If price happens to move lower than the bounce, I will be adjusting the green channel to compensate for that movement. I have adjusted the expected outlined movement if price breaches the large descending broadening wedge on the 6H to compensate for this morning as I mentioned I would yesterday. A push through that wedge's resistance within the next 24 hours should generate a target of around $5700 based on the width of that wedge. During yesterday's live stream I discussed the possibility of an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern forming on the 6H TF, which price is building pretty well at the moment. Current expected target is around $5330-$5350 if the pattern plays out. Don't forget to watch the monthly candle as well which closes at the end of the trading day, today, and the weekly candle which closes at the end of the trading day, on Sunday. The higher that price ends today, the more bullish that 1M candle potentially becomes, and the higher that price ends the week, the more bullish that possible reversal becomes. These two candles will likely tell you more about the pair's current state than the 1D or lower candles that everyone's concentrating on. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something nice for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
1
BTC/USD 15min/6H charts (11/29/2018)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin printed a large bullish daily candle yesterday. As mentioned before, this doesn't guarantee a reversal is happening but it definitely adds to the case that is building for one. The pair has continued its ascent but is pausing at the descending broadening wedge resistance, as expected, from the beginning of the drop out of the $6000s. A breach of, and close above, this resistance would be significant for the pair. Somebody was serious about buying yesterday as they took out that 500+ BTC supply sitting at $4350 that I spoke of yesterday. If you were watching TensorCharts.com when it happened, you saw that it was bought and not simply removed. Price hit the red triangle target at the previous 15 minute R4 pivot around $4330 as it did so. Looking at the 6H chart, we can see price finding resistance at the pivot and three targets based on three different patterns. The blue target is based on the Adam and Eve double bottom at ends around $4765. The red target is based on the red descending broadening wedge and ends around $4745. Finally, the green target is based on the black dashed line descending broadening wedge and is about $1442 from the point that price breaches that wedge. If price were to breach it sooner rather than later, it shows that price would likely target the $5800 area. However, if price were to retrace a bit first, and then breach the wedge's resistance, obviously the target would be lower but it would still be $1442 above the breach. I believe these patterns to be significant in that the targets of the first two then set up the third. Traders must understand that patterns are never guaranteed, but we should always provide weight to them in our analysis when they appear. Price pushing through the large wedge's resistance is, itself, the most significant move. Until price actually moves out of the large wedge, we should look for support on any retracement at $4100 and the yellow zone that holds the lows from a few days back, as well as the lower yellow zone if price happens to fall further. This becomes more likely if price falls through the bottom of the 15 minute blue channel. Specifically, I would most likely be looking at the $3850-$4000 area for a bounce with the 15 minute S1 pivot located at $3875. The 15 minute chart shows price traveling within a well defined ascending blue channel. Price has recently bounced off channel support, and targeting the R2 pivot on this TF would put it at the top of the channel as well as the green and red target levels. With room to run on the 15 minute RSI, MACD curling up for a bullish cross after printing bullish histogram divergence during that channel bounce, and OBV continuing to rise this seems like the most likely avenue for price movement. Doing so should then likely see price finally retracing, but since those targets take price out of the large wedge, my expectation at this time would be to see that wedge's resistance/top of the black TR act as support on that retrace. The top of the black TR on the 6H chart would be a 50% retrace from those expected targets. The blue line gives you an idea of the general movement I would expect if the large wedge is breached soon. This could all change when/if that breach happens, depending on volume and price action. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something nice for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
2
BTC/USD 1H/1D charts (11/28/2018)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin showed some bullishness overnight which shouldn't have surprised anyone. Looking at the 1D, we can see bullish divergence printed in RSI between 11/24 and 11/26-11/27. This has led to almost the largest daily move up since July. A few hundred more dollars of appreciation before the daily close would cement this. The question now is whether this is the beginning of a reversal or if it's just a brief reprieve before a trip to $3000. I realize many people are calling for a quick trip to $4300 or even $4800 followed by a drop down to below $3000, but if we hit those targets quickly, especially the latter, then such a strong move back down wouldn't support the bullish divergence narrative. Because this divergence happened on the 1D TF, we should expect more than a day or two of upward momentum. That doesn't mean price can't go down, just that as traders we should always recognize patterns and indicators that are playing out and their general expected relation to price movement. As I mentioned during yesterday morning's live stream, we need to see a close above the swing high at $4120 to even begin thinking about a reversal. That marks the confirmation level for the double bottom and will set up a target of the $4760 area which gets price right into supply. I don't believe we can see price initially pushing through supply at $4700-$4900 unless we happen to hit a strong pocket of shorts right below it. The expectation is usually to hit supply, drop back, and then push through on the second or third attempt, depending on just how deep the supply runs. This double bottom isn't as significant in the overall price movement of 2018 as the bottoms are very close together, but in terms of a shorter TF, it does provide fuel for a bounce at the very least and that's what we are currently experiencing. It is important to note that last night's move pulled price through the descending channel's resistance which has been present since the beginning of the drop, itself a bullish move and possible signal of a reversal. Further continued bullishness by the close of the 1W in four days would print tweezer bottoms which is a reversal signal. As an aside, price also broke out of the 1D symmetrical triangle. I'm not giving that pattern a lot of weight due to its very short printing, but the price target based on the size of that triangle would be around $4575. A push toward that level would align with resistance of the descending broadening wedge. This would provide a likely place for price to retreat, so any push through and close above it gives a possible reversal a lot more teeth. Finally, 1D RSI has finally moved out of oversold, which it has been in for two weeks, and is currently sitting at 30.34. The candle closing at this level or higher would be bullish in the short term, at the very least. I mentioned yesterday that I am expecting some resistance around $4340 and, today, Bitstamp is showing noticeable supply at $4280 and strong supply at $4350. This aligns with the overlapping 1D supply. I also discussed how OBV was looking weak on that TF but a move up through the end of the day would change that, and that's what happened. Daily OBV continues to print higher lows and highs supporting the current price appreciation narrative. None of what I said guarantees that a reversal from the lows is in progress, but it does start to build a case for it. Traders need to remain aware and employ strong risk management as always. I will be taking a closer look at these patterns and targets during this morning's live stream. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
BTC/USD 1H/1D charts (11/26/2018)Good morning, traders. Welcome to the final week of November. Over the holiday weekend we saw Bitcoin find a low of $3474.73, which was around the equilibrium of the 1M zone, and bounce for almost $600 so far. That's about 17% with some possible higher highs lining up. I am looking for price to target the $4500 area, with some expected resistance around $4340 and a secondary target of the equilibrium of the grey box at $4800, if it can break the swing high of $4120. If price breaks the swing low at $3474.73, then it is much more likely to target $3000. The descending dashed red line is the most important local resistance that price needs to break in order to see price head higher. The 1W saw RSI print a low of 31.45, just above oversold. Currently it is sitting at 30.7 and the 1W S1 pivot is noted at $3200. Yesterday's 1D candle, coinciding with the weekly close, started well but ended under selling pressure meaning rather than immediate upside bias, we should be expecting some sideways movement as buyers and sellers battle it out. This is exactly what has been happening since yesterday. It doesn't mean that price won't go up, only that it will take more effort from the buyers if it is going to do so. The 1D shows price printing a channel within a possible a descending broadening wedge. The channel is about $1300 wide, so we should expect a target of $1300 above the point at which price exits the channel's resistance. Volume has tapered off on the drop suggesting that sellers are exhausted which is to be expected since 1D RSI has been oversold since November 14th. 1D OBV has continued to move higher, since its low on November 20th, as price has continued to drop. As always, smart money volume precedes price so the expectation is that we should see price reversing sooner rather than later. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
2
BTC/USD 15 min/4H charts (11/16/2018)Good morning, traders. It's finally Friday and the market is setting up for what could potentially be a wild weekend/start of the new week. Daily RSI is still below 18 and 4H RSI is just now knocking on the exit door of oversold. MACD on the 4H is nearing a bullish cross and the 15 minute and 4H OBV signals accumulation in the local TR. The local resistance appears to be around $5600, but we can see price continuing to consolidate toward it. The 15 minute TF gives us a look at the local TR and price is moving as expected within it. We can see that it printed its second LPS early this morning at the equilibrium of that TR while bouncing off the pivot and price has been consolidating along the PS level as we should expect. In doing this, price is printing what may turn out to be a pennant. If so, then the next move should be up in the form of an SOS targeting the R1 at around $5750/60, based on the width of that pennant. This is also the resistance area formed by the June low. Price is expected to consolidate around $5600 afterward to print the BUEC/LPS. Then we are expecting a move up to just above the R2 pivot at around $5960/80 for another SOS, and this is based on the height of the flagpole leading up to the pennant. You will also find that $5960 is the 4H S3 pivot. This is generally how we would normally expect this TR to play out. However, as mentioned above, RSI is ridiculously low and there are a barrel of shorts just waiting to get liquidated/forced to cover a few hundred dollars above the current price. As such, we could see a significant move up before any kind of pause. As I spoke of in yesterday's live stream, I wouldn't be surprised in this latter case to see price breach the 1D descending red resistance line before retracing to test it as support and then move up higher. We will take a look at that again during this morning's live stream. At this point, price has hit my first target area between $5250 and $5460. We may see a bit more downside, however, which would tap liquidity sitting just under $5000. If price happens to make it that far down, my expectation at this time is to see a good-sized candle as price rebounds out of that liquidity. The buildup of shorts on the shakeout should help fuel upward momentum. I expect to see a Test around the bottom of the 2018 accumulation TR ($5900 area) before continuing higher once buying picks up, but depending on just how much supply has been removed from the market, price may overshoot that level. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
1
BTC/USD 15 min/4H charts (11/14/2018)Good morning, traders. Binance completed the update to its platform overnight and Bitcoin price continues to feel pressure. With CBOE expiry later today, traders must remain vigilant if they are interested in trading this area as we could likely see price pop up at/near that time. However, we may see more movement down toward $6100 first. Notably, 1D OBV has continued to rise as price has dropped since the October 11th Spring/TR low. Remember, price follows volume, so with OBV continuing to rise it should be expected that we will see price do so as well. The 15 minute MACD is printing bullish divergence as I write this. RSI is dipping back into oversold as well. Price has now printed a likely descending channel from November 11th through today and price is bouncing off the bottom as it creates that bullish divergence. Traders should watch for a breach of the descending black dashed line and then the descending blue dotted line. Breaching those should have price targeting the top of the descending channel, and of course a breach and close above that should have price targeting the top of the black TR around $6450. The 4H chart shows the potential for price to fall to around $6025/30 before heading up based on the largest width of the blue descending wedge. If so, then it would likely stretch RSI strongly into oversold on many TFs thereby resulting in a strong rebound. If the 4H candle at that time dips below the October 10th low and then closes above it, that will create an SFP (swing failure pattern) and we should expect price to rebound. Ultimately, we are watching for price to push through the upper black horizontal line which denotes the top of the resistance area at the $6800 level thereby creating a show of strength (SOS). The expectation at that point would be retracement and consolidation around that upper black horizontal line (possibly printing a pennant) in the form of a "back up to the edge of the creek/last point of support" (BUEC/LPS) followed by another SOS above $7000. If that SOS-to-BUEC/LPS prints a pennant around $6800, then at this time we can expect a target of around $7600 when price breaks the pennant's resistance. This would complete the complex fulcrum and should signal the bull market is likely in effect. Remember, a breach of $8500 gives us the higher high that we've been waiting for and would likely be a strong buy signal to many traders sitting on the sidelines. After that, $10,000 becomes the next signal, and then of course the February high around $11,780. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
6
NTAP: Earnings Stock of the Day NetApp was one of the earliest companies in Cloud Technology. It had a stellar rise in price in 2018 but is now at risk of a topping formation. Data Storage is still a growth sub industry of the Cloud Industry. However, NTAP has gone beyond its fundamental values for 2019. Support levels are on the chart. Bounces should be expected around these price levels. This is an incomplete top. The stock could move sideways in a trading range rather than down. To sell short, the stock must break to the downside from here.
NASDAQ:NTAP
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
HD: Earnings Stock of the DayAlways a late reporting company, HD reported today before the market opened. HFTs were ready to gap the stock in the direction the algos perceived earnings. The chart patterns were setting up for a negative reaction. The stock is in the lower area of its trading range that has similarities to the S&P500 index chart's trading range pattern. Flow of Funds indicators show heavier than normal outflow of money from this stock. That means selling is rotation or distribution by Dark Pools.
NYSE:HD
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
BTC/USD 15 min/4H charts (11/13/2018)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin has found itself having trouble moving up. Watching the order books, price action, and volume it appears that price is being contained. With CBOE Bitcoin futures expiring tomorrow, it wouldn't surprise me if we saw a sudden move up within the next 24 hours. But we don't trade on guesses or opinion, only on the chart. So, for now, I remain disinterested in trading any movement within the black TR that price has been in since September. As an aside, Binance is scheduled to upgrade its platform at 2 a.m. UTC and it's expected to take approximately 8 hours. As mentioned yesterday, failure of price to push through the top of the descending channel/flag made the potential targets based on that pattern obsolete. I also mentioned that if price fell, rather than rose, I would be watching for $6270 and $6200 to provide support. Price hit a low of $6244.35 (at the 15 minute S2 pivot) before bouncing on the 4H chart. The 4H MACD histogram appears most likely to print bullish divergence between 6 a.m. CST on November 11th and 2:00 a.m. CST this morning, as long as this current candle closes near $6300 or above. I have modified the blue descending wedge to compensate for the price action since yesterday's post and it suggests upward momentum. With the 4H bullish divergence on tap as well, this seems more likely than not. Based on the widest area of the descending wedge, we should expect price to target the light blue box (generally around $6533) upon a breach and close above the wedge's resistance. As shown, that would bring price above the red resistance line and near the top of the black TR. The 15 minute chart gives us a closer look at the current price action. We can see that $6310 is providing resistance and that the S1 pivot around $6281 is providing most of the support. Drops below that pivot are being absorbed as demonstrated by the long lower wicks. RSI is neutral, bouncing between 45 and 60, and MACD has been trending upward. The MACD is printing bullish divergence on this small TF, so we should likely expect price to target the $6310 area at the least. OBV continues to rise with price. The 4H chart is showing more of the same -- long lower wicks suggesting absorption. RSI is sitting on oversold which means it has a lot of room to run as price is nearing completion of the descending wedge. Trader should be watching for bullish divergence on this TF as well. Ultimately, we are watching for price to push through the upper black horizontal line which denotes the top of the resistance area at the $6800 level thereby creating a show of strength (SOS). The expectation at that point would be retracement and consolidation around that upper black horizontal line (possibly printing a pennant) in the form of a "back up to the edge of the creek/last point of support" (BUEC/LPS) followed by another SOS above $7000. If that SOS-to-BUEC/LPS prints a pennant around $6800, then at this time we can expect a target of around $7600 when price breaks the pennant's resistance. This would complete the complex fulcrum and should signal the bull market is likely in effect. Remember, a breach of $8500 gives us the higher high that we've been waiting for and would likely be a strong buy signal to many traders sitting on the sidelines. After that, $10,000 becomes the next signal, and then of course the February high around $11,780. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
1
BTC/USD 15 min/4H charts (11/12/2018)Good morning, traders. Over the weekend Bitcoin dropped a bit more to a low of $6269.46 but held the general low from Friday which means it remained above the swing low of October 31st. The bounce off that drop targeted the 4H pivot, retreated to the equilibrium of the large trading range we've been in since the beginning of September, and is targeting the 4H pivot once more. At the least, I'm expecting price to make a run for the 4H R1 pivot at $6510, just below the local swing high of $6544 on November 6th (which is the target of the dotted blue descending broadening wedge that price appears to have printed). A close above this swing high, especially on the 1D, should be bullish for the pair. The CBOE Bitcoin futures expire in two days on November 14th. Will we see volatility at that time? Last month we did not. However, traders should be prepared for volatility at the futures closes as that is what we have typically seen. As mentioned above, price breached the resistance of the descending broadening wedge after its drop. This printed bullish RSI divergence between the November 9th and 11th lows. It then tested that previous resistance as support and has continued appreciating. The 4H RSI is bullish at 50.5 and MACD crossed bullishly a few candles ago. OBV on the 4H remains a bit of a potential concern. It has been trending down since October 17th. However, it continues to remain significantly higher since its September 12th low. It does appear that OBV is printing an ascending channel, but we need to see it heading higher from here to give us a chance at confirming it. As long as OBV continues to trend higher as it has been since September 12th, the shorter term recent downtrend is nothing to worry about. The 15 minute chart shows price printing a flag after the bounce off yesterday's low. The target based on the pattern's flagpole should be around $6491. This puts it at the 15 minute R3 pivot as well as just below the above-mentioned 4H R1 pivot. The light blue box is the expected target area based on the various patterns and pivots. A good, solid close in this area, above the red descending resistance line, should bring $7150 into play. However, this target does not exist until price actually closes above the flag's resistance. Even then, as always, traders must use strong risk management as nothing is ever guaranteed and price could just print a technical break and then fall back. I have outlined the local TR on this TF so that traders can continue to watch for movement into and/or out of the TR, giving them a better understanding of price movement in this area. Price falling below the bottom of the TR should indicate further downward progression which will have us watching the $6270 and $6200 levels for support. The 1D chart shows price continuing to consolidate resulting in contracting volume and volatility. It also shows RSI sitting just under bullish at 48, having bounced off the previous resistance line. MACD is sitting just under centerline. OBV has been moving within a horizontal range since August 14th but is currently testing the resistance at the top of that range. This should hit the descending resistance printed by the October 15th and November 7th highs. OBV has remained in an uptrend since the October 11th drop in price. I will take a closer look at the 1D during this morning's live stream. Ultimately, we are watching for price to push through the upper black horizontal line which denotes the top of the resistance area at the $6800 level thereby creating a show of strength (SOS). The expectation at that point would be retracement and consolidation around that upper black horizontal line (possibly printing a pennant) in the form of a "back up to the edge of the creek/last point of support" (BUEC/LPS) followed by another SOS above $7000. If that SOS-to-BUEC/LPS prints a pennant around $6800, then at this time we can expect a target of around $7600 when price breaks the pennant's resistance. This would complete the complex fulcrum and should signal the bull market is likely in effect. Remember, a breach of $8500 gives us the higher high that we've been waiting for and would likely be a strong buy signal to many traders sitting on the sidelines. After that, $10,000 becomes the next signal, and then of course the February high around $11,780. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
BTC/USD 4H/1D charts (11/9/2018)Good morning, traders. It looks like Bitcoin may be completing the recent corrective move now as it finds support around the bottom of the blue TR/4H pivot/equilibrium of the black TR as I mentioned the past few days during our morning live stream that I was watching for it to do. This is also the 61.8% retracement of that move up from 10/31. These two movements -- up and then down -- have been orderly, suggesting another leg up is in the works. In terms of the larger black TR, this should be the next LPS. The 4H RSI is sitting on oversold at this time and has printed a steep descending wedge from overbought. OBV is continuing to print a large descending broadening wedge. The 15 minute MACD and its histogram are currently printing bullish divergence while RSI is bouncing off oversold once more. Price is printing a descending wedge in that short TF as well. Depending on how much kick we can get from this current position, price should be targeting the $6756-$6830 level with the possibility of a surge up to the 4H R4 pivot at $6975/1D R2 pivot at $7071 (2.618 extension is at $7099). Tensorcharts.com is showing more sell pressure but support appears pretty thick around $6300 with Bitstamp providing 656 BTC and other spot exchanges following suit with support at that same general level. As a matter of fact, it appears that the sell pressure may be originating from Bitmex. Remember, even though it is swap and not spot, the reality is that it contributes to price finding. So, if there is strong sell pressure in swap then spot will react accordingly as we are seeing this morning. While this is the expected bottom of this corrective leg, until it is confirmed traders should remain wary of entering a trade. Ultimately, we are watching for price to push through the upper black horizontal line which denotes the top of the resistance area at the $6800 level thereby creating a show of strength (SOS). The expectation at that point would be retracement and consolidation around that upper black horizontal line (possibly printing a pennant) in the form of a "back up to the edge of the creek/last point of support" (BUEC/LPS) followed by another SOS above $7000. If that SOS-to-BUEC/LPS prints a pennant around $6800, then at this time we can expect a target of around $7600 when price breaks the pennant's resistance. This would complete the complex fulcrum and should signal the bull market is likely in effect. Remember, a breach of $8500 gives us the higher high that we've been waiting for and would likely be a strong buy signal to many traders sitting on the sidelines. After that, $10,000 becomes the next signal, and then of course the February high around $11,780. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
3
Earnings Stock of the Day: DISDisney reports earnings today. The chart has been in a bottoming formation since April of 2018 as this company had a business contraction in 2015. The stock is below its all-time high. The bottom is on the short term within a Trading Range of 30-point dimension. Weekly Chart of DIS shows the trading range. The stock is postured to attempt a breakout of the trading range. This requires that the stock move above the previous all-time high to form a new all-time high. It must sustain the new high and move higher for the trading range to be concluded technically. This length of trading range action typically patterns out the excessive speculation of previous years.
NYSE:DIS
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
BTC/USD 15 min/4H charts (11/8/2018)Good morning, traders. Overnight, we saw Bitcoin fall through the bottom of the impromptu descending channel that I had drawn early in the day, but price found support at the bottom of the ascending channel that it has been in since 10/31. This same point is the horizontal support based off the previous 15 minute TR from 11/4-11/6. I have redrawn the descending channel to fit the price movement and we can see price targeting the topside of that channel. A breach of this resistance should be bullish for the pair. Based on the flagpole of the adjusted descending channel/flag, price should target the 4H R2 pivot/15 minute R3 pivot area around $6630-$6650 upon breach. The 15 minute RSI just retreated from overbought, so we could see price drop a bit more as it continues to consolidate between the ascending channel's support and descending channel's resistance, though it is still cleanly within its ascending channel. OBV on this short TF has continued to rise and moved bullishly out of its own descending channel. The price drop overnight printed hidden bullish divergence on the 4H MACD histogram as I told everyone to watch for during the morning's live stream. The subsequent move up in price had RSI bouncing off the support level around 52/53. 4H OBV is also trending upward. I will take a look at possible EW structures during this morning's live stream and let you know what I'm watching. A drop through the bottom of the ascending channel will have me watching the 4H pivot at $6365 for support. Ultimately, we are watching for price to push through the upper black horizontal line which denotes the top of the resistance area at the $6800 level thereby creating a show of strength (SOS). The expectation at that point would be retracement and consolidation around that upper black horizontal line (possibly printing a pennant) in the form of a "back up to the edge of the creek/last point of support" (BUEC/LPS) followed by another SOS above $7000. If that SOS-to-BUEC/LPS prints a pennant around $6800, then at this time we can expect a target of around $7600 when price breaks the pennant's resistance. This would complete the complex fulcrum and should signal the bull market is likely in effect. Remember, a breach of $8500 gives us the higher high that we've been waiting for and would likely be a strong buy signal to many traders sitting on the sidelines. After that, $10,000 becomes the next signal, and then of course the February high around $11,780. OBV continues to look great on the 15 minute, 4H, and 1D charts. The 3D chart is showing OBV breaching the resistance of the symmetrical triangle that it has been printing since June 21st. Notice that is near the price low for this corrective cycle which came just a few days later. 3D RSI has also breached its symmetrical triangle resistance that's been printing during the same period and sits just under bullish at 49. MACD is nearing the highest point it has been since January, a breach of which should be significantly bullish for the pair. Overall, price remains within the larger two-month-old black TR between $6095 and $6587. Once price moves through the resistance or support of that TR, I will evaluate the movement to decide whether I will enter at that time. Until then, all this little movement is nothing more than noise with a risk that is far too great in exchange for any reward for me. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
1
BTC/USD 15 min/4H charts (11/7/2018)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin has continued to move as suggested it would. As expected, yesterday's move up reached the top of the ascending channel I discussed during the morning's live stream. Overnight, the 15 minute RSI has had a good reset and MACD has just crossed bullishly. Price appears to be printing a flag, and a breach of that flag in the near term should have price targeting just above the 4H R2 pivot at around $6656. However, the longer it takes price to breach the flag the lower that target will be, as we could see price extend its retracement to the bottom of the ascending channel, though it should at least reach that R2 pivot when it does breach. This will pull price above the black TR's resistance. Ultimately, we are watching for price to push through the upper black horizontal line which denotes the top of the resistance area at the $6800 level thereby creating a show of strength (SOS). The expectation at that point would be retracement and consolidation around that upper black horizontal line (possibly printing a pennant) in the form of a "back up to the edge of the creek/last point of support" (BUEC/LPS) followed by another SOS above $7000. If that SOS-to-BUEC/LPS prints a pennant around $6800, then at this time we can expect a target of around $7600 when price breaks the pennant's resistance. This would complete the complex fulcrum and should signal the bull market is likely in effect. Remember, a breach of $8500 gives us the higher high that we've been waiting for and would likely be a strong buy signal to many traders sitting on the sidelines. After that, $10,000 becomes the next signal, and then of course the February high around $11,780. OBV continues to look great on the 15 minute, 4H, and 1D charts. The 3D chart is showing OBV breaching the resistance of the symmetrical triangle that it has been printing since June 21st. Notice that is near the price low for this corrective cycle which came just a few days later. 3D RSI has also breached its symmetrical triangle resistance that's been printing during the same period and sits just under bullish at 49. MACD is nearing the highest point it has been since January, a breach of which should be significantly bullish for the pair. Overall, price remains within the larger two-month-old black TR between $6095 and $6587. Once price moves through the resistance or support of that TR, I will evaluate the movement to decide whether I will enter at that time. Until then, all this little movement is nothing more than noise with a risk that is far too great in exchange for any reward for me. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
1
BTC/USD 15 min/4H charts (11/6/2018)Good morning, traders. It looks like we've got things fixed on my end so I should be back without interruption now. Since the last time I posted, price has continued to move as I outlined that it was likely to do, having reached the top of the blue TR and then retraced a bit within it to print an LPS. Price topped out at $6475 which was just above the flag target of $6460. This gave price just over $150 of upward movement. Shorts have continued to drop off significantly (currently at 21473) on Bitfinex as we discussed would happen, with the Shorts-to-Longs ratio now sitting at 0.8797. Additionally, Bitmex shorts and longs are even at this time. Price is being supported by the 4H pivot, showing expanding volume on the rallies and contracting volume on the reactions. This is bullish price action, but it is a 4H TF and nothing larger so I'd like to see more confirmation via continued rising OBV. Currently, I'm watching for OBV to breach the descending blue resistance line. Overnight, RSI breached its own descending black resistance line and is bullish at 61. MACD is sitting just under the signal line waiting to cross bullishly. There was the slightest hidden bullish divergence between 23:00 CST on 11/3 and 2:00 CST this morning which resulted in the current 4H candle showing price appreciation up through the equilibrium of the blue TR. Traders need to remain vigilant because price needs a nice, strong push up to avoid possible bearish divergence which is likely to be more pronounced on the MACD. This bearish divergence would play into the 1D scenario mentioned below. Spot price is showing strong resistance at $6500 on various exchanges while swap price on Bitmex is showing significant support between $6350 and $6400. This being as it is, Bitstamp is currently showing 500 BTC support at $6300 which is greater than 2x the resistance at any point up to $6800 so far. Local diagonal resistance has been noted with a descending red line on price. The 15 minute OBV has been trending upward for the past week and has recently breached the descending blue resistance line dating back to 10/15, which is significant on this very small TF. However, it wasn't a strongly bullish break, rather it has been more of riding along the resistance/support for the past two days. If we consider that price is being contained rather than supported, as I have been suggesting based on volume and price action, then that would explain this OBV action since C.O. money is part of the smart money. So, having to sell into the rallies to keep price contained would necessarily have the effect of keeping OBV contained as well. OBV is printing a descending broadening wedge, which gives us the expectation of an increase which should result in a higher price as well. MACD just crossed bullishly and RSI is bullish at 54.5. I'd like to see RSI cleanly break 62.5 on this TF to suggest strong bullishness. Local diagonal resistance and support has been noted with red lines on price. I will provide and discuss the 1D chart in greater detail during this morning's live stream at 10 a.m. CST as well as upside targets, but it notes that RSI breached the resistance of the triangle it has been printing since its July high and is sitting bullishly at 52.5. MACD is continuing to increase but presents the possibility of hidden bullish divergence printing some time this week, starting at 10/31. MACD is pretty short on that day, so if price drops, as long as it remains above that day's low of $6199, we could likely see a lower low in MACD and a higher low in price, suggesting continued price appreciation. With overall volume continuing to dwindle, this described price action is a strong possibility. In that case, I will be watching the 1D red diagonal support and resistance lines. Daily OBV has breached its own resistance as well, which is an encouraging sign for market bullishness. Overall, price remains within the larger two-month-old black TR between $6095 and $6587. Once price moves through the resistance or support of that TR, I will evaluate the movement to decide whether I will enter at that time. Until then, all this little movement is nothing more than noise with a risk that is far too great in exchange for any reward for me. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
1
BTC/USD 15 min/4H charts (11/2/2018)Good morning, traders. Price moved up as expected since yesterday's update and live stream, and found initial resistance at my dashed black line just above the double bottom target. This is also the 1D pivot. In terms of the local TR from yesterday, the move up was the SOS and it pulled price into the 4H blue TR. After consolidation, we should expect to see continued upward movement to the top of the blue TR and then the larger TF black TR that began two months ago. We can see that price followed the flag I had drawn on it which means we should expect price to target the $6460 area to complete that pattern's target. Currently, price is finding support on the 4H S1 pivot. Remember, a close above the blue pivot at $6410 would be considered bullish. 4H RSI breached its resistance as price pushed out of the flag and remains bullish at 58. MACD has just moved to the bullish side of centerline, and OBV is rising with the price appreciation suggesting the move up is true. Price bounced off the 15 minute Pivot and RSI is bullish at 57. MACD is pulling away from the signal line and targeting the bullish side of centerline. OBV continues to lead the narrative as it is hasn't wavered in its push upward. We can also see that price is finding a bit of resistance at the equilibrium of the ascending channel it has been printing since October 31st's pop. At this point, we want to see price pushing through the dashed black horizontal line that it found resistance at over night in order to avoid a double top on the smaller TF. A double top at that area should see price retreating to the top of the small local TR that price moved out of two days ago at $6280/$6300. I've drawn in a few channels to give you an idea of the support/resistance levels that I'm watching as price moves. As long as price remains within the ascending channel, things should be fine. A move through the bottom of the channel sets up the aforementioned test of the top of the local TR below it. A thrust through the top of it should come with the expectation of a pullback toward one of the black resistance lines drawn, depending on how hard the push is and its follow-through. On a move above that, the blue horizontal lines should provide support. Overall, price remains within the larger two-month-old black TR between $6095 and $6587. Once price moves through the resistance or support of that TR, I will evaluate the movement to decide whether I will enter at that time. Until then, all this little movement is nothing more than noise with a risk that is far too great in exchange for any reward for me. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
1
BTC/USD 1H/4H charts (11/01/2018)Good morning, traders. The Internet is, once again, anything but stable this morning so there won't be a live stream but I will record a video and upload it as soon as the connection is stable enough to do so. Tech comes tomorrow so by Monday we should be good to go. During yesterday morning's live stream, we witnessed price doing what I suggested it would. The break to the downside stopped just about $5 from my target. After that we saw significant buying as price immediately shot up $150 right into my upper target range. This was a small shakeout which created the liquidity needed to break out of the local TR. I continue seeing the emotionally bearish "analysts" finding new reasons why price MUST go down and stay down, but my reasons for it not doing so have remained unchanged throughout this year. The shakeout yesterday created a short TF double bottom by closing above the highest point between them. Based on the pattern, we should see price targeting the $6370 area. Doing so will bring price back up into the larger blue TR thereby confirming the drop four days ago was a spring on that TR (LPS on the larger TF black TR). In this case, we should expect price to continue up as it creates multiple LPS's in the blue TR, ultimately targeting the top of the larger TF black TR that's been in play for two months. This is also the R3 pivot on the 4H chart at $6587. There is the slight possibility that price will not continue to head upward toward the $6370 target since yesterday's high was pretty close to it at $6350 and pattern targets often don't play out exactly as drawn. The 4H OBV isn't convincing at this time, but that can change by the time the candle closes as the 15 minute OBV is showing us what I want to see -- upward movement. Yesterday's pop sent 4H RSI to the resistance line, but not through it. This kept it from printing bearish divergence. If you were watching my live stream yesterday morning, then you know that price has held almost perfectly within the quick potential flag I drew right after price popped. My bias based on the volume and price action is up rather than down at this time, but a close below the $6250/$6255 level will suggest possible lower movement and I may change my opinion at that time. As long as price remains above yesterday's swing low at $6199.25, traders have little reason to be concerned. As mentioned yesterday, two gaps remain on the 15 minute chart at $6291 and $6229. In most cases, price returns to fill the gaps but these particular gaps appear to be breakaway gaps (decisive movement, associated with heavy volume, out of the local TR) which means we don't usually expect them to fill as price is expected to continue moving in the direction of the breakaway. With all this in mind, if price plays out as a flag, then the expected target based on the flagpole is around $6460. This would put it at the top of the blue TR/4H R1 pivot. Currently this is the expected movement, as explained above, while price targets the top of the larger TF black TR. The 4H RSI is printing a flag right under resistance at the moment increasing support for the idea that price will continue higher. However, as always, nothing is guaranteed in trading so traders should utilize strong risk management. Price dropping below the swing low from yesterday sets up an initial target of the bottom of that same black TR at around $6094/4H S5 pivot. Overall, price remains within the larger two-month-old black TR between $6095 and $6587. Once price moves through the resistance or support of that TR, I will evaluate the movement to decide whether I will enter at that time. Until then, all this little movement is nothing more than noise with a risk that is far too great in exchange for any reward for me. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD 15 min/4H charts (10/30/2018)Good morning, traders. I am still dealing with technical issues with our Internet service provider this morning and will most likely not be able to stream until the tech gets here later this week. I will attempt to record and upload daily videos if possible until it is fixed. After yesterday's move, price has continued doing what it has done best for the past few months - range. As mentioned yesterday, we are watching volume and price action as an indication of where price may head in the near-term. Ultimately, price has found support on the 4H S3 pivot and resistance at the S2 pivot. While volume remains low, we can see that it is increasing, but OBV, specifically, isn't convincing at this time. What is noticeable is that the drop bounced off the July triangle's descending resistance-turned-support line. We can also see that the 4H RSI has continued to remain oversold for more than 24 hours. Shorts are up only slightly now, compared to where they were prior to yesterday's move, which is a testament to the amount of supply that has been removed from the market. Remember, the goal during accumulation is to remove as much loose supply as possible. This means creating situations that cause the weakest hands to sell what they are holding into the hands of the C.O. In doing this, the C.O. ensures that price will move up with as little resistance as possible when the time comes for price to emerge from the corrective cycle. This is especially necessary with the length of time this market has been correcting. All upward movement is met with cries of "sucker's rally" and will most likely continue as such until price breaches the February high at around $11,780. As most retail traders are more concerned with buying the absolute lowest price rather than perfecting their risk management, this gives the larger picture trader/investor the opportunity to get in before the FOMO kicks in. Overall, price remains within the larger two-month-old black TR between $6095 and $6587. Once price moves through the resistance or support of that TR, I will evaluate the movement to decide whether I will enter at that time. Until then, all this little movement is nothing more than noise with a risk that is far too great in exchange for any reward for me. For traders interested in looking at smaller TFs, it would likely be best to just concentrate on the noted local 4H pivots. As mentioned above, price is bouncing between the S2 and S3 pivots. A break in either direction should be an indication that price will be continuing in that direction. However, until price actually breaches and closes above the blue pivot, currently sitting at $6411, all movement should be considered suspect. Those desiring to zoom in even more should take note of the blue 15 minute pivot sitting near the top of that local TR at $6298. As with the larger TF, a breach of this pivot from below, and close above, is considered bullish. This would set up a target of the R1 pivot at $6388 which almost lines up perfectly with the previous period's S1 pivot. This indicates that a bullish breach and close above it would be significant and continued upward movement should be expected with that level providing stronger support. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
1
BTC/USD 15 min/4H charts (10/23/2018)Good morning, traders. Overnight we saw Bitcoin return to fill the gap as mentioned it would do yesterday. But, in doing so, price has moved below the black ascending channel that was in the process of printing so I have removed it. More 15 minute gaps were created on the move down so we can expect price to fill them as well now. We also saw a large spike in volume on the candle low, suggesting absorption continues to happen in that area. This was the largest volume that we have seen on that TF in the past five days. RSI bounced off oversold and MACD just crossed bullishly on the 15 minute TF. OBV fell through the bottom of the ascending channel, which became an ascending wedge, that it's been in since 10/18, but remains higher overall. My expectation is to see price breach the red descending broadening wedge's resistance and, if it does, then the descending dashed red resistance line as it targets $6470 at least. If price happens to breach the local 4H TR's resistance at $6494, then the expectation is for it to target the previous 4H R1 pivot at $6540. 4H RSI is just shy of bullish at 46 and recently bounced off a minor support level. MACD has just crossed to the bearish side of centerline but is curling up which means its bearishness may be short-lived on this TF. OBV appears to be printing a descending wedge which is bullish if it continues to play out as such. Looking at the 4H TF, we can see the local TR in blue. It appears to be printing the LPS for the larger black TR ($6100-$6600). Zoomed in, we can denote the BC, AR, ST, and SOW. Why is the previous drop likely a SOW and not an ST? Because of the volume. We see volume continuing to drop as price rose afterward. The current overnight low should be considered a SOW, as well, if we see the same thing. If it is, then we can expect likely price movement downward as this local TR should be considered distribution. However, if it plays out as an ST, then the odds are increased that the local TR is re-accumulation and we can expect to see likely price movement upward. Lack of upward momentum at this time remains suspect as the consolidating volume will likely see a sudden expansion, so traders should approach any entry with caution. I continue to watch the 1D TR between $6095 and $6587. I believe I mentioned yesterday that the top of the TR was $6384, but that's what I get for hurrying. I apologize for the mistake. Once price moves through the resistance or support of this TR, I will evaluate the movement to decide whether I will enter at that time. Until then, all this little movement is nothing more than noise with a risk that is far too great in exchange for any reward for me. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
BTC 15 Minute/4H charts 10/18/2018Good morning, traders. Price has been trading within this local TR for the past three days now. On the bright side, we have seen consistent higher lows during this time. The CBOE expiration yesterday didn't lead to much of anything - a $34 drop about an hour prior and then a subsequent rise of $78 into the evening. Demand remains prevalent at this time as the large volume spikes are most often associated with large green candles and when we see spikes in volume on black candles, those candles have long lower wicks and short bodies which denote absorption. We can also see some of the larger volume on small black candles which denote the same. Finally, there are also some small black candles with larger volumes which shows us that the effort is far exceeding the result meaning that demand is greater than supply. The volume, of course, is relative as it is lower overall, but I am specifically discussing the volume on the 15 minute chart within this local TR as price consolidates. All this being as it is, I have to also point out that recently we are seeing volume generally increasing on the downswings. This could be a sign that supply is increasing so traders must remain vigilant. Price has continued to fill the gaps created in this local TR, and if that continues then we can expect price to at least return to $6460. We should see this happen on a break of the descending dotted black resistance line that starts at the overnight high. Remember, price is consolidating upward toward $6467-$6490 so we should expect a pop. The question remains, will that pop be up or down? The 4H chart shows us that price has exited the July triangle, however we have yet to see the pop and, as such, traders should remain cautious at this time. You can see that I have adjusted, what appeared to be, a symmetrical triangle to an ascending triangle. The blue price lines denoting initial targets are still valid however. The ascending triangle should just mean that price is more likely to pop up than down, but in order to do so we need to see price make some upward moves today and tomorrow. We can see RSI trending down, but this may be a flag signalling an impending breakout to the upside. Until RSI breaches that ascending resistance line, traders must give weight to the fact that RSI is dropping. MACD's histogram has been moving within a horizontal channel since the beginning of September. We can also see the MACD, itself, has been moving within a descending channel during this same period though we had a recent breach of the top and are currently possibly retesting it as support. Why is this important? Because price is just beyond the July triangle and is printing an ascending triangle, shorts are over-extended, RSI is possibly printing a bull flag, and the MACD histogram has trended sideways. These are all bullish, or neutral at worst, situations. A strong move up at this point from the MACD should indicate that all the other patterns will play out bullishly as well. In addition to all of this, OBV has continued to trend higher although price is lower than 10/14's spike. As mentioned, shorts are building up once again, currently sitting at 35482. The shorts/longs ratio is now at 1.6035. Generally, these things don't bode well for shorts but price is in a precarious position, so traders may find it most beneficial to wait to see how price plays out before entering a position. 1D MACD just notched a bullish cross and has been trending upward since the beginning of September, and RSI is near the resistance of the symmetrical triangle that it has been printing since June/July. In other words, there's a lot of possible bullishness waiting to be unleashed, but it's just potential. There is no guarantee price will break up. For me, there continues to be no good reason to enter a trade, long or short, at this time. The risk far outweighs any potential reward in doing so. As such, I will continue to watch the 4H TR support and resistance (denoted by the horizontal black lines) for price breaches which would indicate likely continued movement within that direction.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
1