CADCHF: descending channelThe CAD/CHF is moving within a descending channel. Currently, a strong support is holding the price, and if it breaks, a significant decline is expected. However, there's a possibility it might return to the top of the channel before that. Nevertheless, if it were to break out of the channel to the upside, I anticipate a larger correction.
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Shopify Corrective Move and Potential TargetsHi guys! This is a Technical Analysis on Shopify (SHOP) on the 1 Week Timeframe.
Since its not the end of the Week, we have to wait till the end of week to see how this week's candle closes.
We ATTEMPTED to break
->1. The ORANGE resistance zone above the 1 FIB level
->2. The "MAJOR RESISTANCE" labeled line that represents a RESISTANCE trend that formed from the PRICE TOP.
WE WERE REJECTED after trying for 4 weeks (july 10th to August 7th).
The 4th weeks candle closed as an ENGULFING BEARISH candle.
Note: For price to break any trend line, it requires a minimum of atleast 3 major tests
This current one in my opinion, ONLY MAKES 2 touch points.
This strengthens the reason of why we got rejected.
So far this weeks candle is showing a much SMALLER body than previous weeks.
This can be an indication that perhaps SELLING is slowing down.
But come end of week, the CURRENT BODY cannot close larger than Today August 9th Candle.
We are currently:
-> BELOW the 21 EMA
-> Breaking the RED Channel i drew out
-> 0.786 FIB Level
Heading straight to the SUPPORT zone comprising of:
1. SUPPORT Horizontal black line
2. 0.618 FIB Level
3. The base of the DESCENDING Triangle.
***Being a confluence of 3 SUPPORT levels -> I believe us to attempt a bounce from the $53.00 area, maybe to retest the "MAJOR RESISTANCE" trendline
In my opinion, its important that we can somehow get back above these key levels come end of week.
If we cant, probabilities are pointing towards a small corrective move
Especially the 21 EMA, looking left reveals patterns where price can fall for upto couple weeks to even couple months.
Which can even validate or increase the probability of the descending triangle to play out
If that happens we will test:
1. First, the 0.5 FIB level at $47.44
2. Then the 0.382 FIB level, which is also around a intermediate Resistance turned SUPPORT line.
3. Worst case scenario = Range of 0.236 FIB level at $34.91 to about $23.90
----->*****going any lower would invalidate the current MACRO BULLISH trend****
-----> But going this low can have create some bullish patterns like a double bottom. But overall its just as of now, less probable.
But we have to just focus one step at a time, worrying about a target level, if the previous trend is broken and confirmed.
Ex). -> If we break below the 0.5 FIB level and confirm, only then is the 0.382 FIB lvl likely.
The STOCH RSI is showing BEARISH move down to the 20 level, we can continue to move below the 20 level and even stay down here for weeks to couple months. But the longer we stay at low levels especially those below 20 level, price tends to decline further.
So we need to pay attention to the level it ends up at.
The RSI is testing a SUPPORT zone, below it can indicate further price drop. Also notice that the RSI line is below the BLACK moving average. If you look left, if we are below it for extended periods RSI continues to drop, along with price. Keep this in mind.
Lastly, the ADX GREEN line, is on a decline, getting close to meeting with RED line. If a cross occurs, more BEARISH momentum can enter the stock. This could increase the probably that the correction continues for a longer timeframe.
We would need GREEN line to curve up and try to get ABOVE resistance line.
Stay tuned for more updates on SHOP in the near future.
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. Hope it helped keep you informed. Please do support my ideas by boosting, following me and commenting. Thanks again.
If you have any questions, do reach out. Thank you again.
DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice, i am not a financial advisor. The thoughts expressed in the posts are my opinion and for educational purposes. When trading always spend majority of your time on risk management strategy.
EUR/CAD Potential Bullish Momentum on the HorizonEUR/CAD returned to the Fibonacci 0.618 level after the previous uptrend, reaching a significant support and ascending trendline. From here, I expect further upward movement towards higher key levels. On lower timeframes, I'm looking for confirmation signals to go long.
1D:
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ZM - 3D timeframe hints at potential MACRO shiftHi guys, this is a Technical Analysis on Zoom.
So many stocks have done well in this bull market and some not so much. My focus is to catch some potential ones that are down significantly from their blow off tops, in the process of bottoming.
Note this is a 3 Day timeframe. This analysis is to see hints in these intermediate timeframes to see whether there is potential for these findings to impact the bigger picture or MACRO trend.
Current Price action for the last 4 candles have printed support above the 50 DMA (green moving average) and 21 EMA (Yellow moving average)
Note also the 50 Green DMA is starting to flatten out, indicating a potential BOTTOMING sign, since if you look left the things been signficantly pointed down since blow off top.
Also note the 21 Yellow EMA is starting to slope up, trying to cross over the 50 DMA.
This has happened only 1 time in the history of 3D Zoom chart but when it did, a massive bull run ensued after. This is something to OBSERVE.
ANother plus point, we are above the 2 sloping trend lines that were resistance lines since July 2022 and Nov 2022.
NOw lets look at the CANDLE characteristics of the 4.
Its important to notice the UPPER WICKS forming -> this indicates selling pressure, and that we are hitting on some tough resistance, indicated by the RED rectangle.
BUT note the highlighted candle formation -> This is a Dragonfly doji, which is a BULLISH candle pattern. I wont go into the details as i am not an expert but just note its not a traditional dragonfly so the power of its impact, may vary. (Again i could be wrong, so don't hold me to this and correct me if im wrong)
Note the tail of the Doji, how it bounced off this major convergence of support between the July 2022 resistance line, and both MA. Great sign in my opinion for a bullish case.
BUT also keep your mind on the various support lines below price action, if we get rejected here which is always a possibility, look for price to test:
1. Firstly the moving averages
2. The July 2022 resistance now flipped support
3. November 2022 resistance now flipped support
4. Lastly, the RED horizontal MAJOR bottom support at around $61. WHich we have never gone below in the history of ZOOM.
Lets move onto my indicators:
1. RSI- Note the Red line, this is actually a reference to the BULLISH DIVERGENCE forming in zoom. Notice also the first white horizontal line, We have recently broken major resistance and formed a higher high in RSI. This is a good sign in my opinion. The 2nd white line above, is something that if we break would indicate MAJOR trend change, as we would break the June 2021 highs on RSI.
2. MACD -> momentum indicator -> Notice how the histogram bars have shortened and the Blue/Red lines have flattened. This in my opinion, this "quiteness", may indicate a "Calm before the storm" scenario. Also if we are crossed up where the Blue line is over the red and ABOVE the 0 level, that could be a sign for bullish momentum. Especially if the space between the 2 lines widens.
3. ADX & DI - Notice the green line is slowly moving above the White horizontal line, if we can get significantly above it, its may indicate a chance for further bullish momentum. If also the white line comes up and pierces the green line, that would add to the bullish momentum case.
*BULLISH DIVERGENCE is a bullish pattern where price action on the charts shows lower lowers but the indicators show higher lows. This pushes price to "catch up" with what the indicators are showing, since normally price action should mirror indicators & vice versa.
CONCLUSION:
Price action is currently in an interesting zone of resistance. Getting above this would be monumental for ZM for sure. We have some great support levels hanging out below us, which could make for some nice BUY zones if price gets there. But in the great scheme of things, and in my opinion, NOT Financial advise -> Zoom is extremely cheap. There are some bullish signs like the dragonfly doji, potential EMA/DMA cross, Higher high RSI and more...... COuld these be the necessary catalysts to have zoom finally start a bull run, well....... TIME WILL TELL.
THANK YOU for taking the time to tune in. Please support me by boosting, following and commenting. Feedback always helps and or expressing your thoughts would be great.
DISCLAIMER: This is NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE. I am not a financial advisor. This is strictly my opinion and for educational expression. Trade with caution, always focusing on RISK MANAGEMENT. Protect yourselfs, deploy stop losses.
GBPUSD H4 - Long SignalGBPUSD H4
Currently sitting north of 100 pips deep now, following the bounce from that 1.28 handle we had highlighted a couple of days ago. Getting off the ground nicely ahead of FED and FOMC later on this evening.
Again, not sure how much mileage this may or may not have in it ahead of this event, often markets are a little bit static, then the event itself acts as a catalyst as orders flood the market in respect of the data release.
Scalp setup on GBPUSD Hey guys, here is a simple setup for GBPUSD. Wait for the candles to close below the sell zone or buy zone. I am using the Stochastic RSI with settings of 14-3-3 to identify a fake out. Once the one hour candle closes below or above the zone, you can check if the Stochastic isn't oversold or over bought. If you have these confirmations, then you can take position on either side.
Gold: Long-Term Upward MomentumGold is moving within a long-term upward trend. It has retraced back to the Fibonacci 0.618 level and reacted to it, breaking the corrective trendline. I anticipate that after a pullback, it will once again target higher levels.
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EURUSD: before breakoutThe EUR/USD is currently in a long-term uptrend, which leads me to anticipate a breakout to the upside from this pattern, potentially retesting previous highs. However, if the ascending trendline were to break, it could lead to a retracement towards significant support levels seen in the past.
Good trading!
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Nifty Elliottwave update 04/07/2023Hello everyone,
Here is our update on NIFTY in ELLIOTT WAVE perspective.
Nifty is about to complete 5th wave.
Note: we have shared this info for education purpose only, not a recommendation, we are not responsible for your profits or losses, always trade with your own risk.
AUDJPY: falling wedgeAfter a strong rally, the AUD/JPY has recently formed a falling wedge pattern, which it has now broken out from. This suggests that we can anticipate further upside momentum as it aims to retest previous highs. Traders should keep a close eye on this pair as it presents potential trading opportunities in the ongoing upward trend.
Daily chart:
Good trading!
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BASIC FIB OTE + OB PULLBACK TRADING SETUPJUST CHECK THE PIC FOR THE IDEA.
BUT BASICALLY HERE ARE THE STEPS:
1. DETERMINE CURRENT MARKET STRUCTURE USING 1) SWING HIGH & SWING LOW 2) BOS & CHOCH
-this is more powerful if price has just made a break of structure(BOS), but not necessarily.
2. PLOT FIB FROM LATEST SWING HIGH & SWING LOW
3. LADDER ENTRY AT FIB OTE + ORDERBLOCK ZONE
4. PUT STOPLOSS AT ABOVE SWING HIGH "Invalidation Zone"
5. TAKE PROFIT AT SWING LOW
That's it. Backtest it until the inception of Bitcoin if you want just to get a really accurate picture of how well it works.
Basic is good. Fancy gets broken.
Bank Nifty Trade Setup (23-May-2023)As posted yesterday price is consolidating between 700-800 Points near ATH Level.
From price action Its moving in Lower Highs and Higher lows forming symmetrical triangle pattern breaking this pattern on either side can give 200-250 points for the levels of horizontal resistance also ATH on upside and horizontal support at 43550 levels.
For tomorrow Setup i will look for following :
1.) If Opens flat will wait for break of this triangle pattern and on which ever side it break will trade accordingly for target of Support or Resistance levels.
2.) If opens gap up will check if it retest this pattern and if sustain the Gap i will look for buying for target of ATH which will also be partial booking or full booking as per my time for it.
3.) If opens gap down will follow the same check if it retest triangle pattern if doesn't sustain will buy PE for target of support level. if price sustain above triangle lower trendline i will look for buying with first target of Triangle upper trendline.
This will be my personal trade Setup, This is not an advice of any kind to trade for anyone.
Hit like to keep me motivated for keeping my trading journal. also one can comment how i can make it better or any improvements i can make in my trading setups.
XAUUSD Gold Bullish Setup Swing Trade XAUUSD is Starting to gain it's bullish strength again.
My following setup requires Gold to break clearly above the 2KUSD level.
Make a retest of it's resistance after breaking thru the structure clearly.
I reckon placing a buy limit when XAUUSD has broken thru it's resistance, as a retest will likely occur.
SL can be placed bellow demand zone or below it's lower fib level.
TP at little below it's latest highest resistance as it will be a major selling area.
- David van Delden
BTC price $26K - $34K BTC broke out of the accumulation and showed an aggressive way up. This was to be expected.
Now I see three scenarios:
1. A further compression and reaching the range of 32-34 thousands, from which the sales can go and put BTC into accumulation, gain strength and continue moving up with the targets ~$40k.
2. A retest of the breakout level, where BTC showed growth and also formed an imbalance, somewhere near the end of the week (followed by a quick redemption).
3. Weakness of the buyer, uncertainty of the market, and everyone's favorite FUD. Unsuccessful upward breakout, leaving below $28.5k will confirm a (short-term) deep correction.