KOG's RED BOXES - EURUSD EURUSD:
Key level red box here is around the 1.1045 region with the bias being bullish above. Swing high currently in production, immediate red box needs to break.
Have a look at the previous pinned posts on Red boxes to familiarise yourself with how they are so effective in keeping traders the right side of the markets.
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As always, trade safe.
KOG
Tradingsignals
Gold price approaches $3000The US Federal Reserve (Fed) recently decided to loosen monetary policy after 4 years, by reducing interest rates by 50 basis points (0.5%), to 4.75-5%.
This agency emphasized that it is "always ready to adjust monetary policy if risks arise". Fed officials forecast the reference interest rate to decrease by another 0.5% by the end of this year and 1% next year. In 2026, they will reduce the interest rate by another 0.5% to 2.75-3%.
However, gold quickly fell, now at $2,556/ounce, just about the same as today. The gap between domestic and international gold prices is about VND5.4 million/tael.
Currently, investors are waiting for comments from Chairman Jerome Powell for more information on the main presentation. Robert Minter, chief investment strategist at Abrdn, said that in this new holiday, it is only a matter of time before gold surpasses $3,000/ounce .
Gold Analysis September 19Fundamental Analysis
Gold prices regained positive momentum after yesterday’s pullback from an all-time high and continued their steady intraday gains heading into Thursday’s European session. The US dollar (USD) saw an intraday reversal from a one-week high and now appears to have stalled its recovery from its lowest since July 2023 hit the previous day. This, coupled with concerns over a recession in the United States (US) and China, along with the risk of further escalation in tensions in the Middle East, prompted some safe-haven flows into the precious metal.
With Thursday’s positive move, Gold now appears to have snapped a two-day losing streak, although the possibility of more aggressive easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) could limit any further gains. In fact, the US central bank decided to start its policy easing cycle by cutting borrowing costs by 50 basis points on Wednesday. However, the Fed has lowered market expectations for excessive rate cuts in the future. This still supports a modest increase in US Treasury yields, which could limit the USD's losses and limit the gains of the non-yielding yellow metal.
Technical analysis
Gold has recovered very strongly from the Fibonacci retracement level of 2547-2545. At the moment, we need to understand what it wants each session and how it pushes the price. So Gold can absolutely continue to push higher in 3 sessions when Asia and Europe have not had any significant declines. The important price zone is 2588. If this zone breaks when the US enters, do not sell and wait for 2600 SELL to react. It is easy to have a false break, so the beautiful BUY point in the area I determined yesterday at 254x will be held until 263x. Today is a difficult day to trade. If the US session at 19:30 cannot break the 2588 area, it is possible to SELL to the destination area at 2565 - 2545
SELL attention zone 2588-2600-2612-2618
BUY attention zone 2565-2545
XAUUSD Potential push for 2600This week, XAUUSD surged to an all-time high, driven by expectations of a potential Federal Reserve rate cut. The price jumped over 3%, marking its strongest weekly gain since August. Inflation concerns and global uncertainty have fueled speculation that the Fed may cut rates to stimulate the economy. Now, the market is in a new range between 2550 and 2600.
Next week’s key event is the Fed's decision, with high-impact news expected, especially Wednesday. The market could consolidate, forming a continuation pattern, though Monday may start with a short-term pullback due to a 1-2-3 price movement, typically signaling a correction.
Despite this potential pullback, the overall outlook remains bullish. A rate cut could drive prices toward 2600 or higher, supported by inflation concerns and economic uncertainty
SELL GOLD TODAY DUE TO FED 25bps CUT OVER 50bpsPrice will fall over today FED 25bps cut over 50bps high anticipation, Overbought Gold will fall from high to 2540 to 2520 level, God willing
2569-2575 SL 2583 (Trade till 2581)
2587-2592 SL 2603 (Trade till 2601)
2608-2613 SL 2627 (Trade till 2625)
GOD WILLING
Gold Price Analysis Ahead of FOMC September 18Fundamental Analysis
On the day of the Fed's announcement, markets continued to price in a 65% chance of a 50 basis point (bps) rate cut, CME Group's FedWatch Tool showed, reviving selling interest around the US dollar (USD), as US Treasury yields also turned defensive amid cautious markets.
As such. Gold prices are attempting to reclaim all-time highs just shy of $2,600, as attention turns to the Fed's decision, Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference and the Dot Plot, all of which will help gauge the US central bank's future policy actions.
If the Fed delivers a 25 basis point rate cut later this Wednesday, it could send the US dollar soaring. However, the immediate reaction to the Fed's announcements could be overshadowed by the implications of the Fed's projections and Powell's words. Therefore, gold prices are still subject to strong fluctuations in the Fed event.
Conversely, if the Fed acknowledges the potential risks to inflation and maintains a cautious tone, this could bring the hawks back into the game, negatively affecting the non-interest-bearing gold price.
Technical analysis
Gold is breaking the downside price band and approaching the resistance level around 2575. If it fails to break this zone before the US session, we can SELL and hold to 255x and 2545 when the FOMC announces to BUY back up and hold to 262x. In case of breaking the 2575 zone, we will not SELL and wait for the candle to close above 258x and BUY when the 2575 zone is retested. Hold until the FOMC does not break the new ATH, then we exit the order.
Breakout upper limit: 2582 - 2591 - 2603
Upper resistance: 2581 - 2590 - 2600 - 2605 - 2615 - 2626 - 2645
Breakout lower limit: 2570 - 2563 - 2550 - 2538
Support: 2572 - 2564 - 2552 - 2545 - 2539 - 2525 - 2516
Pay attention to the trend zone around 2580 above.
Sell the price zone 2603-2605. Stoploss 2609
Watch for BUY 2564 - 2562. Stoploss 2558
Watch for BUY 2545 - 2547. Stoploss 2541
Investors are worried that the Fed only reduced it by 25 pointsWorld gold charges became down with spot gold down thirteen USD to 2,570 USD/ounce. Gold futures closing traded at $2,596.30 an oz, down $12.60 from the brilliant spot.
Pressured with the aid of using a rebound withinside the greenback and a moderate upward thrust in Treasury bonds, the yellow metallic misplaced 0.5% after conquering an all-time excessive of $2,589.50 an oz early withinside the day. week. Currently, buyers are nevertheless awaiting facts on whether or not the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) could have a coverage pivot at this assembly as expected.
After a chain of membership facts, monetary markets are forecasting a more potent Fed in its first hobby price reduce for the reason that 2020. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the marketplace is already assured withinside the opportunity of a tapping fundamental foreign money with a 63% mission discount might be 50 foundation points.
💎 OANDA:XAUUSD Buy 2558 - 2556💎
✔️TP1: 2570
✔️TP2: 2580
✔️TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2548
💎 OANDA:XAUUSD Sell 2585 - 2587💎
✔️TP1: 2570
✔️TP2: 2560
✔️TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2595
Gold price analysis September 17Fundamental Analysis
Gold prices steadied at $2,580 on Tuesday, ahead of potentially market-moving US data later in the day and a Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting on Wednesday.
Gold surges as Fed rate cut expectations rise
Gold prices surged to an all-time high (ATH) of $2,589 on Monday after market bets that the Fed will cut interest rates by a further 0.50% at its meeting on Wednesday surged, according to market-based gauges.
Expectations of a Fed rate cut are positive for Gold as it reduces the opportunity cost of holding the yellow metal, a non-interest-paying asset, thus making it more attractive to investors. On the other hand, if the Retail Sales misses expectations, this will add to speculation of a half percent cut on Wednesday and positively impact Gold, which could rise to a new high.
Technical Analysis
Gold prices are close to the all-time high resistance around 2589 combined with important US news released. The scenario for US gold when Gold prices break the all-time high we will BUY fomo. and on the other hand when Gold prices correct, pay attention to the 2560 and 2545 zones for long-term BUY.
Breakout upper: 2591 - 2603
Upper resistance: 2578- 2590 - 2600 - 2605 - 2615 - 2626 - 2645
Breakout lower: 2570 - 2564 - 2538
Support: 2572 - 2565 - 2552 - 2545 - 2539 - 2525 - 2516
SELL zone 2600 Stoploss 2606
SELL zone 2610 Stoploss 2615
BUY 2555 - 2553. Stoploss 2550
BUY 2545 - 2547. Stoploss 2541
“The EUR/USD target is 1.11500”Last week, the ECB cut its interest rate by 25 basis points, in line with market expectations. ECB President Lagarde did not make any commitments for October but indicated that rates are on a downward path. As a result, pricing in favor of the Euro strengthened, with the EUR/USD pair reaching the 1.1130 level. As the new week began, the pair faced mild selling pressure but maintained prices above the 1.11 level.
From a technical perspective, if the upward trend continues and the 1.1150 resistance is broken, the next resistance levels to watch are 1.1190 and 1.1275. On the downside, if pricing drops below the 1.1115 level, 1.1045 and 1.10 could act as important support levels for further declines.
It's all about the FedWorld gold price trades weekly at 2,577 USD/ounce. Gold futures price in December 2024 is trading at 2,606 USD/ounce.
The US Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision will be the main focus of the market this week. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Conference at the end of August confirmed that the Fed will make a decision on interest rates at its next meeting on September 18.
The US Central Bank kept the main lending interest rate unchanged at the highest level in two decades, from 5.25-5.5% over the past 14 months.
Major commentators, the labor market is hot and the US economy continues to grow, policymakers have determined it is time to cut interest rates. The market is pricing 55% interest rates in the US will decrease by 25 basis points and 45% interest rates will decrease by 50 basis points in the next few days.
💎 TVC:GOLD Buy 2544 - 2546💎
✔️TP1: 2560
✔️TP2: 2580
✔️TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2536
💎 TVC:GOLD Sell 2595 - 2597💎
✔️TP1: 2580
✔️TP2: 2560
✔️TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2605
Gold price analysis September 16Fundamental Analysis
Gold prices edged lower from fresh record highs around the $2,589-$2,590 region hit on Monday. The intraday decline could be attributed to some profit-taking amid generally positive risk sentiment, which tends to weigh on the safe-haven precious metal. However, any meaningful declines appear to be limited amid expectations of a more aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) easing.
In fact, markets have begun to price in an over-the-top 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed later this week after data released last week provided further evidence of subdued US inflation. This has kept US Treasury yields and the US dollar (USD) near 2024 lows, which in turn will continue to act as a driver of non-yielding gold prices. Traders may also refrain from placing heavy bets ahead of the FOMC’s two-day policy meeting starting on Tuesday.
This is followed by monetary policy updates from the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) on Thursday and Friday, respectively, which could inject some volatility into the markets and provide fresh impetus to Gold prices. Hence, any meaningful corrective pullback could still be seen as a buying opportunity.
Technical Analysis
Gold is at an all-time high, so any bullish momentum will only be met with resistance at the psychological levels of 2600 and 2610.
Support areas to place confidence in further buying are around 2570-2545. In today's European session, if gold breaks 2590, it is possible to execute SELL signals around 2600 and 2690. In case it does not break until the middle of the European session, SELL gold to 2570 before the US. If it breaks 2570 before the US session, hold until 2560-2545.
Resistance: 2590 - 2600 - 2608 - 2612 - 2626 - 2645
Support: 2580 - 2571 - 2560 - 2545
SELL 2599 - 2601 Stoploss 2605
BUY 2567 - 2565. Stoploss 2561
BUY 2555 - 2553. Stoploss 2549
GBPUSD Analysis Week 38🌐Fundamental Analysis
The GBP/USD pair attracted some dip buying on the first day of the new week amid relatively weak trading conditions due to holidays in China and Japan. The spot price is currently trading around the 1.3135-1.3140 region, up more than 0.10% on the day and still near a one-week high hit on Friday amid prevailing US dollar (USD) selling.
The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against a basket of six currencies, is hovering near its yearly low set in August amid expectations of a more aggressive easing policy from the Federal Reserve (Fed).
In addition, a generally positive risk tone further undermines the greenback’s relative safe-haven status. On the other hand, the British Pound (GBP) benefits from expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will ease policy less than the Fed next year. However, the market is still betting on more BoE rate cuts, especially after data released last week showed a slowdown in UK wage growth and flat GDP for the second month in a row in July. This could deter bulls from placing strong bets on GBP/USD.
🕯Technical Analysis
GBPUSD is approaching last week's peak resistance around 1.322. The early Asian session moves pushed the 1.311 support level into a solid session support as the price pushed back. Deeper Fibonacci retracement levels or the key Dow breakout have created two solid support zones for GBPUSD in the uptrend, namely the 1.299 and 1.290 support zones.
📈📉Trading Signals
SELL GBPUSD 1.321-1.323 Stoploss 1.324
BUY GBPUSD 1.299 -1.297 Stoloss 1.295
The first threshold surpassed 2,600 USD/ounce.Market are pivoting their interest to subsequent week`s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. This collecting is poised to be one of the year's maximum consequential, with full-size anticipation of the primary hobby price reduce on account that 2020. The consensus amongst analysts, economists, and marketplace observers is that a price discount is all however certain. markets are presently pricing in a 73% danger of a 25 bps reduce and a 27% danger of a 50 bps reduce, consistent with CME FedWatch.
Early this week AngloGold Ashanti introduced it's far obtaining Egypt-targeted Centamin for $2.five billion in coins and stock. Anglogold dropped at the news, however recovered via way of means of the stop of the week.
INJ: Scalping Long Setup | 13.09Hello Friends 😀
One of my favorite coins to scalp and definitely one I am eyeing to bid. Currently, we're seeing a bearish divergence on the RSI, which indicates a potential reversal. What makes this setup particularly interesting is the presence of an untapped daily POC (Point of Control) right at the level of the Fair Value Gap (FVG). This zone offers an attractive level to enter a position as it could serve as a solid support area.
Additionally, the VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) could provide further support, potentially stabilizing the price around this level.
The combination of the bearish divergence, the untapped POC, and the support from the VWAP makes this setup particularly compelling for a short-term trade.
Scalp $SEI: Long Setup | 13.09Hello Friends, I am back with another scalp. I will try to share as most of them in here as I can 🤝
--------------------
Entry: 0.29822 🎯
DCA: 0.29005
SL: 0.27974
Note:
Got this long idea here on SEI which I want to bid with 2 entrys so I am DCAing this scalp. It is on the 2H chart with a little wider stop loss than the latest scalps but also a higher target so the RR isn't bad.
We have build higher highs since 7 days on BITGET:SEIUSDT.P and it seems at if it would continue to do so and for the possibility of a wick lower I am placing the DCA bid.
Please remember, the weekend is about to start and sometimes the prica action can become a little weird over the weekend.
EURUSD Analysis Week 38🌐Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD returned to the 1.1100 level on Friday, before market forces once again weighed on the Euro and sent Fiber back to its opening price. The pair failed to make a near-term technical recovery as traders turned their attention to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate call next week.
The European Central Bank (ECB) cut its benchmark interest rate, the deposit facility, by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.5% as expected. The ECB also cut the rate on its marginal lending facility and main refinancing operations by 60 bps. In her post-meeting press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde refrained from hinting at the timing of the next rate cut. While the ECB event failed to boost the Euro, renewed selling pressure around the US Dollar (USD) helped the EUR/USD pair gain.
On an annual basis, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July and below market expectations of 1.8%. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September rose above 40% following the data, according to CME's FedWatch Tool, triggering a sell-off in the USD.
🕯Technical Analysis
After peaking around 1.110, a short-term downtrend channel has formed, the support of the downtrend channel remains at around 1.099 and 1.093. These two key support levels will keep the pair stable in the trend. On the other hand, if this short-term downtrend is broken, the 1.115 area will be a key resistance before looking to last month's high around 1.119.
📈📉Trading Signals
SELL EURUSD zone 1.114-1.116 Stoploss 1.118
BUY EURUSD zone 1.099-1.097 Stoploss 1.095
short term strategy when XAU is highCentral bank demand for gold is a key factor that has been a catalyst for the gold price rally. She said that gold continues to outperform other commodities as demand for the precious metal increases, especially from central banks in emerging markets.
The precious metal's role as a natural hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. At the same time, in an environment of geopolitical tension, gold remains the top choice.
Gold Price Analysis September 13Fundamental Analysis
Gold prices maintained modest intraday gains heading into the European session on Friday and are currently hovering near the $2,565-2,570 region, or record highs. A softer-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) report released on Thursday provided further evidence of easing inflation and raised expectations of a larger rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed) next week. This was reinforced by a fresh drop in US Treasury yields, which dragged the US dollar (USD) to its lowest in more than a week and continued to act as a bullish driver for the non-yielding yellow metal.
In addition, persistent geopolitical risks stemming from ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and the protracted war between Russia and Ukraine also provided additional support for safe-haven gold. This, in turn, confirms the overnight breakout through a multi-week trading range and supports the outlook for a short-term bullish move.
Technical Analysis
Profit-taking by some investors at the end of the Asian session pushed the price to 2563 and continued to push it up when the European session entered. Today's scenario is that gold retreats to the 2560 zone and does not break this zone until the middle of the European session, so we can buy back to the target zone of 2574-2580. In the direction of breaking through the 2560 zone, we will not sell retest but wait for the BUY zones of 2555 and 2545. BUY signals can hold TP far away at the present time because gold can completely create ATH in the near future
Price zones to pay attention to according to the scenario: 2555-2545-2560-2575-2580.
Gold Analysis September 12Fundamental Analysis
Gold prices rose on an overnight rebound from the psychological $2,500 mark and gained some positive momentum on Thursday. Growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin its policy easing cycle and lower borrowing costs next week turned out to be a major factor acting as a boost for the non-yielding yellow metal. That said, bearish bets on a larger Fed rate cut at the end of the September 17-18 policy meeting have pushed the US Dollar (USD) closer to its monthly peak and should limit gains for the commodity.
In addition, a generally positive tone around the equity markets is likely to undermine traditional safe-haven assets and deter traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around Gold prices. Furthermore, the recent range-bound price action and repeated failures to find acceptance above the $2,530-2,532 zone or the all-time high reached in August, make it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before positioning for further gains. Traders are now looking forward to the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for fresh impetus.
Technical Analysis
Gold prices pushed up to 2521 in the late Asian session and as the European session began, prices are being pushed back down. The area of interest is the 2512 zone as prices failed to break through until mid-European session, then BUYing back up to 2528 before the US. Breaking 2528 holds until the 2555.xx peak. In the opposite direction when the 2512 zone is broken, wait for retest to sell to 2500 and 2595. In case gold does not push to 12 but flies away, sell again in the 2528-2530 zone.
SELL 2543 - 2545 Stoploss 2549
BUY 2503 - 2501. Stoploss 2498
BUY 2496 - 2494. Stoploss 249
Forecasts suggest that the Fed will decrease by 25 pointsTaking advantage of the opportunity is still there, says RJO Futures senior market strategist Bob Haberkorn. If the Fed decides to reduce it by 50 points, it would mean that the Central Bank of America is surrendering its ability to play.
The results of the Reuters visit showed that most participating economists think the Fed will lower interest rates by 25 basis points at each of the remaining main meetings in 2024. The poll showed that only 9 of the 101 economists expect a half-percent cut next week.
Independent metals trader Tai Wong said that the rise in core CPI has more or less reinforced the possibility that the Fed will proceed with a 25 basis point cut next week. Gold prices may have to wait a little longer to reach new record highs.
💎 TVC:GOLD Buy 2485 - 2487💎
✔️TP1: 2500
✔️TP2: 2510
✔️TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2480
💎 TVC:GOLD Sell 2525 - 2527💎
✔️TP1: 2510
✔️TP2: 2490
✔️TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2535
CHFJPY: Pullback From Key Support 🇨🇭🇯🇵
There is a high chance that CHFJPY will pullback
from a horizontal daily key level.
I see a nice confirmation after its test - an inverted cup and handle pattern
and breakout of its neckline.
I expect a bullish move at least to 167.75
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
The market is now paying attention to some US producer pricesWorld gold prices reversed and decreased slightly with spot gold down 5.9 USD to 2,511.8 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at $2,540.30 an ounce, down $5.60 from the bright spot.
Expectations for an interest rate cut at next week's main meeting decreased somewhat after the consumer price report put upward pressure on gold, causing the precious metal to lose 0.2% on the day. Accordingly, the latest report found that consumer prices in the US increased slightly in August, but underlying utilization remained stable, which may make the US Federal Reserve (Fed) unable to decided to reduce 50 basis points next week.
💎 OANDA:XAUUSD Buy 2485 - 2487💎
✔️TP1: 2500
✔️TP2: 2510
✔️TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2480
💎 OANDA:XAUUSD Sell 2522 - 2525💎
✔️TP1: 2510
✔️TP2: 2500
✔️TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2533