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USOIL / TRADNING ABOVE SUPPORT LEVEL AT 67.19 - 4H USOIL / 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS Price Decline of 7.16%: The analysis suggests that there has already been a price drop of 7.16%. This could be the starting point for further analysis or an event that has already occurred. Breaking and Stabilizing Below 67.19: The level 67.19 seems to be a significant support or resistance point. If prices break below 67.19 and stabilize, it indicates a bearish trend. This might suggest that further declines are likely. Further Decline of 9.71%: Should the price fall and stabilize below 67.19, the analysis anticipates an additional 9.71% decline. Current Trading Above 67.19: Presently, prices are still above the 67.19 level, signaling that the market has not yet broken this key point. Expected Increase of 10.36% : The text predicts an upward movement of 10.36%, potentially implying bullish momentum if the price continues to hold above 67.19. Possibility of Further Increase: There’s a suggestion that the price could rise even more beyond the 10.36% increase if current trends hold. Technical Analysis: Current Market Condition: The asset is under bullish pressure , As long as the price remains above 67.19, the bullish momentum is expected to continue. Upward Condition: - Target 1: If the price trades above 67.19, it's expected to rise to 71.51. - Target 2: If the price stabilizes above 71.51, the next target is 72.16. Downward Condition: - If the price falls below 67.19 , it suggests a potential decline: - Target 1: A decline to 65.34. - Target 2: If it breaks below 65.34, further decline is expected to 63.93.
TVC:USOILLong
by ArinaKarayi
EURUSD Analysis: Anticipating a Slight Bearish Bias Towards 1.1!EURUSD Analysis: Anticipating a Slight Bearish Bias Towards 1.10000 (24/09/2024) As we analyze the EURUSD pair this week, a slight bearish bias appears probable, with a target near the pivotal level of 1.10000. Key drivers for this outlook include the recent economic data releases, central bank policies, and market sentiment. 1. Economic Data: Recent Eurozone economic indicators have shown mixed results, with weak manufacturing PMI figures suggesting slowing growth. Conversely, US economic data, particularly strong job numbers and retail sales, point to a robust economy, potentially strengthening the dollar. 2. Central Bank Divergence: The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to maintain a dovish stance amid economic uncertainties, while the Federal Reserve appears committed to a tighter monetary policy. This divergence could exert downward pressure on the euro. 3. Market Sentiment: Increased risk aversion due to geopolitical tensions may lead investors to favor safe-haven currencies like the USD, further supporting the bearish outlook for EURUSD. In conclusion, the combination of economic fundamentals, central bank policies, and market sentiment suggests that EURUSD may trend towards 1.10000 this week. Traders should stay alert for potential market shifts and adjust their strategies accordingly. Keywords: EURUSD analysis, bearish bias, economic data, central bank policy, ECB, Fed, market sentiment, forex trading, trading strategies, 1.10000 target.
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
XAUUSD Flag Breakout Mastery – 100 Pips in Just Hours!You executed a fantastic trade on XAUUSD, capturing a solid 100 pips in 3.5 hours. However, there were additional techniques you could have employed to potentially capture more of the overall move: Higher Time Frame Confluence: Ensuring the overall trend aligns with the smaller time frame breakout can give you confidence to hold for bigger moves. Trailing Stop Strategy: This could have helped you lock in profits while giving the trade room to continue further. Recognizing Momentum: The impulsive nature of the move post-breakout was an indication to hold the trade longer. Momentum trading often provides an opportunity for a bigger run. Extended Targets: using Fibonacci extensions could have encouraged you to hold for additional profit. Complete Trade Walkthrough 1. Entry Analysis: Pattern Recognition & Confluence: Descending Flag (Bullish): You identified and entered at the top of a descending flag, which is a continuation pattern in a bullish market. The breakout from this flag confirmed the upward momentum, making this a high-probability trade. Confluence Factors: Breakout Confirmation: Price broke through the descending resistance line, signaling a continuation of the bullish trend. Support Zone: The prior lows acted as strong support, providing additional confidence that the price would move higher after the breakout. This was an excellent, well-timed entry based on price structure. You entered right as the market broke out of the flag, aligning with a momentum-based strategy. 2. Price Action (PA) Analysis: Impulse and Correction Structure: Impulse Move: After the breakout, price made an impulsive leg upwards, which you capitalized on. This impulsive move is common following a flag pattern breakout, and the price shot up quickly, reflecting a strong buying pressure. Correction: You entered just before the impulsive leg, after a period of corrective consolidation, which validated your timing. Once price pushed up, there was a brief consolidation before continuing the uptrend. Momentum Continuation: Price made higher highs after your exit, indicating that momentum was still intact. The price action displayed clear continuation signals following the breakout, suggesting that the market was still trending upwards. 3. Trade Management: Time in the Trade: You were in this trade for 3.5 hours, which aligns with the short-term nature of this flag breakout. However, the trade ran further, reaching up to 350 pips. Profit Targeting: Initial Take Profit (100 pips): You wisely took 100 pips as price approached a prior high. However, the fact that price continued upwards suggests that you might have captured more pips using alternative techniques. Exit Consideration: 100 Pips Exit: While exiting at a previous high is logical, the lack of signs of reversal (e.g., no strong bearish candles or rejection at key resistance levels) indicated there was still room for the move to extend. The price continuing upward shows that the bullish momentum was strong, and you could have held on for a larger move. Stop-Loss Placement: You didn’t mention your stop-loss, but if you placed it below the structure of the flag (and adjusted it accordingly), this would have allowed you to reduce risk and hold for a longer run. 4. Potential Improvements: Higher Time Frame Analysis (HTF Confluence): HTF Context: Had you zoomed out to a higher time frame (1H or 4H), you may have seen that the breakout was part of a larger bullish trend, indicating there was potential for the move to continue beyond the 100-pip target. Price Momentum: The momentum post-breakout on smaller time frames was strong. Checking the HTF would have given more confidence that this wasn’t just a short-term spike, but rather part of a more significant trend​​. Trailing Stop Strategy: Trailing Stops: Once your trade was 100 pips in profit, instead of closing the position entirely, you could have moved your stop-loss up to lock in some profits. This way, you could ride the larger move while managing risk. Example: After 100 pips, trail your stop just below the previous consolidation or a key structure (e.g., 50 pips back), allowing the trade to breathe and move further in your favor​​. Extended Profit Targeting: Fibonacci Extensions: By using Fibonacci extensions, you could have projected extended profit targets beyond the initial 100 pips. Typically, a flag breakout can lead to an impulse equal to the size of the flagpole, offering more opportunities to scale out of the trade gradually.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Adlercon333
“USDZAR on a Downward Trend”The South African Reserve Bank has reduced the policy interest rate to 8.00%. Following this move, the reversals at the 17.40 level in the USDZAR pair have drawn attention. The Fed had unexpectedly cut rates by 50 basis points at its September meeting. This situation has led to significant losses in dollar assets, while we can observe that any increases in the USDZAR pair remain limited. From a technical perspective, if the exchange rate surpasses the 17.70 level, rises may initially extend to 17.95 and then to the 18.20 resistance level. On the downside, if the 17.40 level is breached, we could see a decline to 17.15 and then to the 16.90 support level.
by primequotes
Unlock the Market's Hidden Rollercoaster: How to Ride the WavesXau/Usd Review with my trading personality As a Whimsical Rollercoaster Enthusiast, your trading style is likely driven by the excitement of quick market movements and the thrill of capturing early trades. You're probably someone who thrives on dynamic entries, enjoys the fast-paced action, and may have a more intuitive approach to the market. Let’s blend that with risk management to balance your adventurous spirit while still keeping a solid trading plan. Technical Review for a Whimsical Rollercoaster Trader: 1. Key Levels to Watch: 2,595 (Resistance) and 2,580 (Support) are your playgrounds right now. You’re drawn to the thrill of what might happen at these zones. If price pushes toward 2,595, you might feel an urge to jump in, expecting an immediate reaction. However, I encourage you to: Embrace your adventurous nature but temper it with tactical precision. Let the level hit and then wait for a quick confirmation (like a wick rejection or a mini pullback). This gives you both the excitement of early entry and higher probability without losing your edge. Scenario: Price pushes toward 2,595. Here, your Risk Entry could be triggered: Risk-Entry Plan: Enter short at the first rejection of 2,595. Set a tight stop-loss just above the liquidity zone (2,600), respecting your love for quick moves but protecting from being shaken out too soon. Target the 2,580 area first, knowing the ride might be wild but worth it. Why it suits you: It’s a quick decision, satisfying your need for speed, while the tight stop-loss aligns with managing risk. You get that thrill, but within guardrails. 2. Confirmation Entry – Building Momentum: Confirmation Entries might feel a bit “slow” to you, but they can help ensure you stay in the game longer. Consider them when you want to ride bigger moves, not just quick scalp trades. Scenario: If price breaks through 2,595, wait for a retest to confirm this zone is now support. Here’s where you bring in your whimsical nature: instead of waiting too long, spot a smaller timeframe pattern, like a bullish engulfing candle or a rejection wick, and go long. Confirmation-Entry Plan: Enter long at the retest of 2,595 after a clear rejection pattern. Think of it as waiting for the next loop on the rollercoaster — the bigger move is coming, and you want to be on board for it. Set a slightly wider stop-loss, maybe under 2,580, to allow the trade to develop without getting knocked out early. Aim for the next higher liquidity zones, like 2,600 or 2,615. Why it suits you: This method still lets you catch the excitement of a momentum breakout, but the confirmation gives you more confidence. You still get the rush but with less risk of getting thrown out before the big move. 3. Patterns Within Patterns – Your Playground: As a Whimsical Rollercoaster Enthusiast, you probably love when the market shows intricate patterns — they're like hidden rollercoaster tracks, revealing sudden twists and turns. Scenario: If price breaks above 2,595, zoom into lower time frames and look for miniature patterns within the broader trend. You might find a bull flag within a larger ascending channel. Entering on these small corrective patterns can satisfy your need for fast-paced decision-making while riding the overall trend​. Plan: Use these smaller patterns for quick entries. Set your stops just outside the pattern, and take profits quickly as the price breaks out. Think of it as riding the small waves, but always looking for the bigger momentum move to follow. Why it suits you: You’re jumping in on short-term opportunities while always keeping an eye on the next big move. This keeps you engaged and allows you to take action when you feel that burst of adrenaline without losing sight of the bigger picture. 4. Managing Whimsical Risk: Stop-loss flexibility: As someone who enjoys spontaneity, a tight stop might feel restrictive but necessary. Here’s the compromise: Set initial stops tight (like just above 2,595 if shorting), but allow yourself room to evolve the trade based on market action. If the trade moves in your favor, quickly move the stop to breakeven. Mental Resilience: Losses will happen, but you need that mental discipline to jump back in without chasing every tick. Treat each trade like a separate rollercoaster ride — whether it’s a good or bad one, there’s always another one coming. Use your intuition and excitement to recognize evolving setups. But keep a few rules in place to avoid the pitfalls of impulsivity (e.g., no more than 3 trades per day on a single idea to avoid over-trading). 5. Incorporating the Rule of Three: For the rollercoaster trader, the Rule of Three is your ultimate guide. This rule asks you to identify at least three confirming factors before entering a trade​: Scenario: Price reaches 2,595: You see a rejection (touch #1). The lower time frame shows consolidation or a mini bear flag (touch #2). Momentum begins to fade (touch #3). Action: This triple confirmation allows you to short confidently, knowing you have the right mix of signals to back your bold entry. Why it suits you: The Rule of Three still gives you the excitement of quickly entering trades but ensures they are high-probability setups. It prevents you from overtrading out of sheer excitement while still letting you capture those thrilling moves. Summary Action Plan for a Whimsical Rollercoaster Trader: Risk Entry: When you feel the market is ready to react at key levels (like 2,595), dive in! But do it smartly — use tight stop-losses and a quick decision-making process. Think of it as jumping onto the coaster right before it starts moving. Confirmation Entry: Use this when you're looking for a bigger, smoother ride. Wait for the breakout-retest combo, then get in for the larger trend move. Stay patient here; it’s worth the wait. Patterns within Patterns: Zoom into the mini rollercoasters inside the bigger structure. Catch the small waves but keep your eyes on the longer ride. Trinity Rule : Ensure three factors align before entering. This rule keeps you disciplined while still embracing your whimsical nature.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Adlercon333
KOG's RED BOXES - SILVERSILVER: Key level here is 29.63 with the bias being bullish above. Retracement needed with support just below at the red box which will need to break to go lower. Have a look at the previous pinned posts on Red boxes to familiarise yourself with how they are so effective in keeping traders the right side of the markets. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
OANDA:XAGUSD
by KnightsofGold
XAUUSD - AFTER FOMC SPEECH - 4HXAUUSD / 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS In the month of August, prices started to increase until September by 10.04%, reaching a new historical peak of $2,600. As long as they remain below this level, it indicates a decline at a rate of 2.66%. Technically analysis : Gold reached a historical peak of $2,600 but began to decline following a speech by Jerome Powell. The decline was significant, hitting the target of +420 pips. Prices are now trading under downward pressure. The key levels to watch are $2,589 and $2,575. As long as the price remains below these levels, it indicates a downtrend If gold continues to stay below $2,575, it is expected to drop further to $2,551, and potentially down to $2,531. Conversely, if a 4-hour candle closes above $2,575, it suggests that prices could reverse upwards, targeting $2,589, and potentially returning to the all-time high of $2,600. overall , that the short-term outlook for gold is bearish, but there is potential for a bullish reversal if the price stabilizes above $2,575. Traders should monitor these levels closely to gauge the next move in the market. UPWARD TARGET : 2,589$ , 2,600$ . DOWNWARD TARGET : 2,551$ , 2,531$.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ArinaKarayi
USDCAD - UNDER DOWNWARD PRESSURE - 4HUSDCAD / 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS Currently, prices are trading below the resistance trend line and the turning level at 1.361. This sets the stage by identifying that the price is under a key resistance line and turning level, specifically at the 1.361 level. The resistance line acts as a ceiling preventing further upward movement. As long as trading remains below this level, a decline is expected, potentially reaching 1.354 and 1.350. Here, you're forecasting a possible downward trend. If prices don't break through 1.361, the expectation is for them to move lower, first targeting 1.354, and possibly continuing to 1.350. These levels are likely key support level where the price could find temporary stability. However, breaking this level would indicate a rise toward 1.370. This section shifts the focus to an alternative outcome. If the price breaches the 1.361 resistance, it would signal the start of an upward movement, aiming for the next key level at 1.370. To confirm an uptrend, it is necessary to break through this level, which would then target the next level at 1.374. Finally, you're stating that for a true and sustained uptrend to be confirmed, the price must break through 1.370. Once this happens, the price is expected to head towards the next resistance level at 1.374. UPWARD TARGET : 1.370 , 1.374. DOWNWARD TARGET : 1.354 , 1.350.
Short
by ArinaKarayi
NAS100USD / KEY LEVEL 19,954 - 4HNAS100USD / 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS Tendency , prices trading below 19,954 , it indicates under downward pressure Prices are expected to remain under bearish pressure as long as they trade below the key levels of 19,954 and 19,535. Should the price stabilize and remain below these thresholds, a decline towards 19,187 is anticipated. A breach below this point could signal a further drop to 18,688. On the other hand, if the resistance at 19,954 is broken, we could witness upward momentum, with prices potentially rising first to 20,194 and then extending to 20,714. UPWARD TARGET : 20,194 , 20,714. DOWNWARD TARGET : 19,187 , 18,688.
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by ArinaKarayi
GBPUSD / UNDER BEARISH PRESSURE - 4H GBPUSD / 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS The price movement reflects both technical and fundamental factors. The 3.58% decline in July can be attributed to global economic uncertainties, such as inflation fears or weakening consumer demand. This decline likely hit key support levels, prompting traders to adopt a more cautious stance. However, the 4.71% recovery in August suggests a reversal in market sentiment. This could be driven by improving macroeconomic indicators, such as better-than-expected GDP growth or reduced inflation, which restored confidence. Additionally, this rally may reflect a technical bounce off support levels, with short-term traders capitalizing on oversold conditions. The critical resistance level of 1.326 now acts as a psychological barrier. A failure to breach this level could confirm a bearish outlook, suggesting a downtrend continuation to the next support zones at 1.309 and 1.304. Market sentiment, geopolitical risks, or adverse economic data may further pressure prices. On the flip side, a decisive break above 1.326 would likely attract bullish momentum, setting the stage for higher targets at 1.329 and 1.335. In this scenario, buyers would anticipate further gains, with potential drivers such as positive earnings reports or an easing of economic uncertainties bolstering confidence. A sustained move above these levels could even signal a broader market rally. UPWARD TARGET : 1.329 , 1.335. DOWNWARD TARGET : 1.309 , 1.304
Short
by ArinaKarayi
EURUSD - TRADING TO REACH RESISTANCE TRENDLINE - 4HEURUSD - 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS Tendency , trading under bullish pressure . Currently, prices are trading above the 1.102 level. As long as the price remains above this threshold and shows signs of stabilization, it is expected to rise further, potentially reaching 1.110 and then 1.113. Should the price surpass 1.113, there could be additional gains, with the possibility of reaching as high as 1.117. Conversely, if the price falls below 1.102, it may indicate a downward trend. In this scenario, a decline to 1.099 is likely, with the potential for a further drop to 1.094 if the bearish momentum continues. UPWARD TARGET :1.110 , 1.113 , 1.117. DOWNWARD TARGET : 1.099 , 1.094.
Long
by ArinaKarayi
ANTICIPATING TRADES BY APPLYING TADING STRETEGYAnalysis of EURUSD Forex pair carried out on 12 Sep 2024 by applying following trade strategy:- 1. Bearish trend 2. Bullish Divergence 3. No continuation pattern 4. Double Bottom reversal pattern formed 5. Bullish Harmonics pattern AB=CD pattern formed and chart near point D, PRZ 6. Anticipated that chart will go bullish by making HHs & HLs 7. Initiated two trades on MT4 by marking buy stop on first HH and stop loss at LL as no HL is still formed
Long
by akyzai71
1
10:1 Risk-to-Reward Setup - Bull Flag Breakout with Multi-TimeThis trade setup shows a confluence of multiple factors, aligning with a high-probability approach. Here's the breakdown: Bull Flag Breakout: The trade initiates after identifying a bull flag, which is a common continuation pattern following an impulsive upward move. This flag signals consolidation before a further upward push. The breakout from the bull flag gives a strong entry point. Entry Criteria: The entry was placed at 2560.404, slightly above the breakout area, ensuring momentum confirmation. A Stop-Loss (SL) of 30 pips was positioned below the structure, protecting the trade while allowing enough room for price fluctuations. This is crucial to avoid tight stops that may trigger prematurely​​. Key Support/Resistance Levels: 5M Lower Time Frame (LTF) S/R: This level acts as a lower frame confirmation zone, ensuring support below the bull flag breakout. 15M Support/Resistance (S/R): The larger structure aligns with the 5-minute support, adding strength to the trade by recognizing that price is supported by multiple timeframes​​. Target (TP) and Higher Time Frame (HTF) Confluence: 300 Pips TP is based on the HTF Trendline, offering a solid risk-to-reward ratio of 10:1. This suggests the trade is aligned with a broader market trend, increasing the probability of success​. Zone of Liquidity (LQZ): 5M LQZ represents a liquidity grab, further confirming that the market might push upwards after grabbing liquidity near support​​. Key Confluences: Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Price action supports the move on both lower and higher timeframes. Risk Management: A well-defined stop-loss ensures minimal risk with a substantial reward target. Pattern Identification: The bull flag within the trend adds reliability, as flags in impulsive moves offer strong continuation signals​​. This trade follows the "Rule of Three," where at least three confirmations (bull flag, multiple timeframe support, and risk/reward alignment) give the highest probability of success​​.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Adlercon333
XAGUSD / BREAKING DESCENDING CHANNEL - 4HXAGUSD / 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS overall , under downward pressure as long as trading below supply zone . as long as remain below supply zone between 31.01 and 31.41 , it suggest decline to reach 30.57 , then breaking and stabilizing below it by open 4h candle expected further decline to 30.09 . however , stabilizing above 31.41 , it indicates still continues rising to reach 31.74 and 31.96 , then stabilizing above it reach a ATH at 32.50 . Turning Level : 31.01 and 31.41
OANDA:XAGUSD
by ArinaKarayi
XAUUSD / TRADING BELOW 2,572$ (ATH) - 4HXAUUSD / 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS gold under bearish pressure if stabilizing below 2,570$ but breaking this level reach a new resistance zone between 2,580$ and 2,592$. As long as the price remains and stabilizes below $2,570, it suggests a potential decline, with the first target being $2,551. If the price falls below this level, further downside movement could lead to a drop toward $2,531. However, if the price breaks above the $2,570 resistance, it may initiate an upward movement, aiming for a new resistance zone between $2,580 and $2,592. This zone will act as a potential barrier to further upward momentum. Turning Level : 2,570$
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ArinaKarayi
EURUSD / UNDER UPWARD PRESSURE - 4HEURUSD / 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS EURUSD is currently trading above the turning level of 1.099 and remains above the support trendline, indicating upward momentum. There are two potential scenarios: The First Scenario , Since the price is trading above the turning level 1.099, it suggests an initial bullish sentiment , If the price rises and reaches the resistance level at 1.107, it indicates that the upward momentum is strong. A price movement above this level suggests further bullish potential , If the price stabilizes above 1.107 and continues rising, reaching 1.110 would confirm a sustained uptrend, as the market would have shown resilience and strength above previous resistance. The Second Scenario , If the price falls below 1.099 and closes a 4-hour candle below it, this indicates a bearish shift as the price has broken through a support level , A decline to the support level at 1.094 would be a further bearish signal, For a confirmed downtrend, the price needs to break through the established channel and stabilize below it. This would indicate that the bearish trend is likely to continue, as the price has not only broken support but also failed to recover. UPWARD LEVEL : 1.107 , 1.110 . DOWNWARD LEVEL : 1.094 .
Long
by ArinaKarayi
USDJPY / BREAKING THE CHANNEL - 4HUSDJPY / 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS After breaking the channel, prices are attempting to reach the support level at 138.810. As long as they stabilize below 142.231, a decline is expected to reach 138.810, and further below that, 137.306. This downward momentum is contingent on maintaining resistance below 142.231. However, if 142.231 is breached, it could signal a potential rise toward the next resistance level at 144.401. Breaking this level would suggest bullish momentum, and for a stronger confirmation of an upward trend, prices need to sustain themselves above 144.401, eventually targeting the 147.401 level. TURNING LEVEL : 142.231
Short
by ArinaKarayi