Tradingstrategies
EUR/USD - technical analysis - 17/07hello, I would like to keep things as simple and clear as possible without too many stories!
blue zone = demand zone - from where I expect it to grow or at least to have a reaction
purple area - supply area - from where I expect the price to decrease or at least to have a reaction
liquidation point = for the order flow to be respected, the price must take over that point
protected point = if the price touches that point, it is possible to see a trend change
liquidity = the price will take that liquidity (do not transact there)
MARKET STRUCTURE at the finest level
Learn Why You Should Study Multiple Time Frame Analysis
In my daily posts, I quite frequently use multiple time frame analysis.
If you want to enhance your predictions and make more accurate decisions, this is the technique you need to master.
In the today's post, we will discuss the crucial importance of multiple time frames analysis in trading the financial markets.
1️⃣ Trading on a single time frame, you may miss the important key levels that can be recognized on other time frames.
Take a look at the chart above. Analyzing a daily time frame, we can spot a confirmed bullish breakout of a key daily resistance.
That looks like a perfect buying opportunity.
However, a weekly time frame analysis changes the entire picture, just a little bit above the daily resistance, there is a solid weekly resistance.
From such a perspective, buying GBPUSD looks very risky.
2️⃣ The market trend on higher and lower time frames can be absolutely different.
In the example above, Gold is trading in a bullish trend on a 4h time frame. It may appear for a newbie trader that buyers are dominating on the market. While a daily time frame analysis shows a completely different picture: the trend on a daily is bearish, and a bullish movement on a 4H is simply a local correctional move.
3️⃣ It may appear that the market has a big growth potential on one time frame while being heavily over-extended on other time frames.
Take a look at GBPJPY: on a weekly time frame, the market is trading in a strong bullish trend.
Checking a daily time frame, however, we can see that the bullish momentum is weakening: the double top pattern is formed and the market is consolidating.
The sentiment is even changing to a bearish once we analyze a 4H time frame. We can spot a rising wedge pattern there and its support breakout - very bearish signal.
4️⃣ Higher time frame analysis may help you to set a safe stop loss.
In the picture above, you can see that stop loss placement above a key daily resistance could help you to avoid stop hunting shorting the Dollar Index.
Analyzing the market solely on 1H time frame, stop loss would have been placed lower and the position would have closed in a loss.
Always check multiple time frame when you analyze the market.
It is highly recommendable to apply the combination of at least 2 time frames to make your trading safer and more accurate.
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Three Effective Commodity CFD Trading Strategies Whether you're a seasoned trader or new to the world of commodities, understanding the various strategies that are available may play an important role in building a successful trading plan. In this article, we’ll explain three types of commodity CFD trading strategies and provide examples of each that you could get started with today.
Commodity Trading Explained
Commodity trading refers to the buying and selling of raw materials and industrial components in the financial markets. While Forex trading deals with currencies, commodities trading primarily deals with physical goods. Typically, commodities fall into four broad categories: energy, metals, agriculture, and livestock and meat.
There are many reasons why people trade commodities. Some trade them as a way of hedging against inflation; this is particularly true of precious metals. Others might use them to take advantage of a booming economy, as demand for energy, metal, and food usually increases in times of economic growth.
Commodities trading is a practice that dates back thousands of years. In the past, early civilisations had to buy and store these goods physically, but nowadays, there are many types of commodity trading available.
In the 21st century, traders don’t need to buy and store goods; they can trade them as a contract for differences (CFDs). More about commodity CFD trading can be found on FXOpen. Also, traders can gain exposure to commodities through stock and exchange-traded fund CFDs, which you’ll also find on our platform.
3 Examples of Commodity CFD Trading Systems
Broadly speaking, commodities CFD trading strategies can be divided into two categories: fundamental, based on economic factors and news, and technical, based on past price movements and market trends. We’ll be looking at three technical strategies.
If you’d like to follow along, you can use a risk-free demo account.
Please note that given the wide spreads usually seen in commodities, it’s preferable to use at least 15-minute charts.
1. Trading Breakouts
A breakout refers to the rapid price movements seen after an area of support or resistance is broken. However, breakout trading may be harder than it seems. A “fakeout” - a move beyond a support or resistance level that quickly reverses - may trap traders and put them in the red. Therefore, some traders prefer to wait for confirmation and enter with a stop-limit order.
- Entry: Once an area of support or resistance has formed (A), price needs to break through and create a swing high or low (1). When the price returns to the level, an opposing high or low should form (2). Then, you may set a stop limit order at the previous high or low (1) to catch the confirmed breakout.
- Stop Loss: The strategy suggests setting a stop above the swing high or low that creates the retest.
- Take Profit: Traders may take profit at a level that gives them a 2:1 risk/reward ratio. Some prefer to trail their stop, while others might move it to breakeven and manually take profits at future areas of support and resistance.
2. Trading Trends
Trend-following strategies have a potential to do well with commodities, given that their trends can last weeks, months, or even years. This specific strategy uses moving averages to confirm the direction of the trend with additional confluence from the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
- Indicators: RSI (14), Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 21 (grey) and 50 (orange).
- Long Entry: When EMA 21 crosses above EMA 50 and RSI is above 50 (showing bullishness), the first retest of EMA 21 may be considered an entry point (2).
- Short Entry: When EMA 21 crosses below EMA 50 and RSI is below 50 (showing bearishness), you may enter on the first retest of EMA 21 (1).
- Stop Loss: For longs, you could set a stop just below EMA 50 and trail as the moving average moves up. For shorts, you could set a stop just above EMA 50 and trail as the moving average moves down.
- Take Profit: Traders usually start taking profits at a level that gives them a 2:1 reward/ratio. Alternatively, you might take profits when RSI dips below 50 for a long trade or above 50 for a short trade.
Trading Ranges
While commodities can be highly volatile, like other assets, they also experience ranges. Range trading is another type of planning and trading of commodities. The use of volatility-based indicators, like Bollinger Bands, alongside an indicator that tells you whether price is trending or ranging, like the Average Directional Index (ADX), may be helpful when trading ranges in commodities.
- Indicators: Bollinger Bands (20, 2), ADX (14, 14).
- Entry: The theory suggests a trader goes long when ADX is below 20 and the price touches the lower Bollinger Band and goes short when ADX is below 20 but the price touches the upper band.
- Stop Loss: There are a couple of ways to set a stop loss here. One way might be to use a set number of pips, or perhaps roughly half the size of the entry candle. Alternatively, a trader could set a standard deviation of the Bollinger Bands to 3 and use the newly-formed bands as a stop.
- Take Profit: Since this is a range trading strategy, it’s expected that positions are closed on touching the opposing band, but a trader can choose to leave some in and move their stop at breakeven to potentially be involved when the range breaks out.
Ready to Start Your Commodities CFD Trading Journey?
Now that you have three potential strategies under your belt, you may start thinking about your next steps. If you’re thinking of testing these strategies on a live market, you may try the TickTrader platform. You’ll have the chance to gain valuable experience with these strategies and see what works best for you.
EURUSD: before breakoutThe EUR/USD is currently in a long-term uptrend, which leads me to anticipate a breakout to the upside from this pattern, potentially retesting previous highs. However, if the ascending trendline were to break, it could lead to a retracement towards significant support levels seen in the past.
Good trading!
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Unveiling the Advantages of Trading a Single Currency Pair
Introduction:
In the world of foreign exchange (forex) trading, traders have an array of currency pairs to choose from. Among the various strategies employed by forex traders, a popular approach is to focus on trading a single currency pair. While some may argue that diversification across multiple currencies is more beneficial, trading one currency pair comes with its own set of advantages. In this article, we will explore these benefits and shed light on why concentrating on a single currency pair can maximize your trading potential.
1. Increased Specialization:
By focusing on a single currency pair, traders gain the boon of deep specialization. They can dedicate their time, energy, and resources to thoroughly studying and understanding the dynamics, trends, and drivers specific to that particular currency pair. In-depth knowledge allows traders to make more informed decisions, leading to higher chances of profitability.
2. Clarity in Market Analysis:
Trading a single currency pair enables traders to develop a comprehensive understanding of the factors driving that particular pair's movement. They can delve into technical analysis, monitor news releases, and study relevant economic indicators with greater precision and efficiency. This clarity in market analysis helps traders identify patterns and make accurate predictions, consequently enhancing their trading strategies.
3. Enhanced Risk Management:
Concentrating on one currency pair enables traders to manage risk more effectively. They can closely track and analyze historical data, volatility patterns, and overall market behavior.
4. Time Management Advantage:
Trading a single currency pair allows traders to manage their time more efficiently. Instead of spreading their attention across multiple pairs, which require continuous monitoring and analysis, traders can focus on one pair and streamline their research efforts. This time management advantage permits traders to conduct thorough analyses, develop effective trading strategies, and implement risk management techniques without being overwhelmed by the sheer volume of currency pairs.
5. Optimized Trade Execution:
Trading a single currency pair empowers traders to execute trades with greater precision and speed. Being highly specialized in a particular pair enables traders to spot opportunities promptly and take advantage of favorable trade setups.
Conclusion:
While diversification has its merits, trading a single currency pair offers unique advantages that can significantly impact a trader's success. Increased specialization, clarity in market analysis, enhanced risk management, time management advantage, optimized trade execution, and the potential for becoming an expert are some of the key benefits that traders can enjoy by focusing on one currency pair. As with any trading strategy, it is essential to conduct thorough research and practice disciplined risk management to realize the full potential of your trading endeavors
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USDJPY ____ INCOMING BULLISH RALLYDear Traders,
USDJPY just tapped into a strong daily demand order block which should trigger some bullish price action.
If you recall earlier this week, I posted that the dollar index is likely to commence the bullish rally so this should be expected.
Below is the dollar index analysis.
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US DOLLAR INDEX ANALYSIS
Cheers,
Jabari
EURGBP ____ POTENTIAL BEARISH TRADEHello Traders,
I just want to bring this trade outlook to your notice. Price recently swept the buy-side liquidity and created sell-side liquidity.
With the current bullish rally, the price is approaching a daily FVG. If the FVG will hold and the price shows a CHOCH in the 1-hour timeframe, I would take a short trade to hunt the sell-side liquidity as drawn in my chart.
Follow for more updates like this.
Cheers,
Jabari
XAGUSD (SILVER) ____ INCOMING BEARISH MOVEHello Traders,
XAGUSD (Silver) still has some bearish moves to deliver. This can be confirmed by the bullish view of the dollar index (inserted below).
While price retraces to the weekly order block, I will be waiting. Once price enters the order block, I will be looking for a continuation of the bearish move by looking for a CHOCH on the 1-hour timeframe.
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US DOLLAR INDEX ANALYSIS
USDCHF ANALYSIS
USDSGD ANALYSIS
Cheers,
Jabari
USDSGD ____ INCOMING BULLISH RALLYHello Guys,
As I had previously published, the dollar index seems to be setting up for a bullish rally (analysis inserted below) and USDSGD which is correlated with the dollar index is aligning accordingly.
You will also notice that the price has buy-side liquidity to hunt. I have set an alert to know when price trades into the daily order block from which I will be looking out for a CHOCH on the 1-hour timeframe to go long.
Also, USDCHF is aligning for this long (analysis inserted below)
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US DOLLAR INDEX ANALYSIS
USDCHF ANALYSIS
Cheers,
Jabari
USDCHF ____ INCOMING BULLISH RALLYHello Traders,
I'd keep this simple... Price traded into a strong demand level and on the weekly timeframe, a CHOCH is evident (look at your weekly timeframe).
Last week, the price hunted the trendline sell-side liquidity and I speculate that the price could trade to the daily order block just below sell-side liquidity (equal lows).
Also, the dollar index also gives a view that the dollar will rally which supports the view on USDCHF.
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US DOLLAR INDEX ANALYSIS
Cheers,
Jabari
US DOLLAR INDEX ____ INCOMING BULLISH RALLYHello Guys,
As I have stated most times that at some point, the dollar will rally and reach higher prices.
I suspect we have gotten to that period. I will insert my previous analysis for this.
With this view of the dollar rally, I would be looking out for USD pairs that have a good structure in alignment with the dollar rally.
Pairs like: USDCHF, USDSGD & XAGUSD have very interesting price structures. I advise you to monitor them.
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US DOLLAR INDEX (Previous analysis)
Cheers,
Jabari
AUDNZD ____ INCOMING BULLISH RALLYHello Guys,
You would recall that at a certain point, I was looking for a short on this pair (inserted below) this short was to form the retracement to go long long-term. However, I was unable to join the bearish move as I was stopped out at breakeven.
Since then, I have kept AUDNZD on my radar and right now, It is approaching a weekly order block which could generate the much-needed demand for it to commence the bullish rally.
I would suggest you monitor this pair also when it trades into the weekly order block. You can also notice that I have set an alert on my chart to know when price trades into the order block.
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AUDNZD (Previous analysis)
Cheers,
Jabari
NZDUSD ____ INCOMING BULLISH MOVEHello Traders,
It's been a while since I made a post. I was dealing with some personal issues. Well, I am back and this one could be a low hanging fruit for this week.
The dollar is a bit bearish and It should give NZDUSD strength to rally.
However, the dollar should see higher prices in the coming weeks or days but for now, the dollar is trading lower to accumulate more orders.
Follow me for more updates like this.
Cheers,
Jabari
EURNZD ____ INCOMING BEARISH MOVEHello Traders,
EURNZD has just traded into a daily supply order block just after running buy-side liquidity (equal highs). I have a long-term bullish bias on this pair, however, I speculate that we might see a bearish move from this daily order block before resuming the bullish rally.
Follow for more updates like this.
Cheers,
Jabari
NZD/USD: continuation of the downward trendThe NZD/USD is currently trading within a descending channel on the daily timeframe. It recently broke below the corrective trendline and retested it. I anticipate a continuation of the downward trend from here.
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Good trading!
Bullish Reversal Potential on $FIL: Falling Wedge PatternGreetings, Traders! Today, I'm thrilled to share an intriguing technical analysis discovery on the stock of Filecoin ( TSX:FIL ). A falling wedge pattern has emerged, indicating the potential for a bullish reversal in the near future. Let's dive into the details!
📈 Ticker: TSX:FIL
📅 Timeframe: Daily Chart
📊 Pattern: Falling Wedge
📉 Understanding the Falling Wedge Pattern:
A falling wedge is a bullish chart pattern characterized by converging trendlines that slope downward. Typically formed during a downtrend, it suggests diminishing selling pressure and the potential for a reversal. This pattern indicates the possibility of an upward price movement.
🔍 Identifying the Falling Wedge on TSX:FIL :
Upon analyzing the daily chart of TSX:FIL , the following observations come to light:
1️⃣ Recent downtrend: TSX:FIL has experienced a decline in price over the past weeks.
2️⃣ Converging trendlines: The upper trendline connects the lower highs, while the lower trendline connects the lower lows.
3️⃣ Decreasing trading volume: As the falling wedge pattern forms, the trading volume has been declining, indicating a potential reduction in selling pressure.
📈 Price Targets and Trading Strategy:
If the falling wedge pattern on TSX:FIL plays out as expected, a potential bullish breakout above the upper trendline might occur, signaling a reversal and potential price appreciation. Consider the following price targets:
1️⃣ Target 1: Resistance level near $80.00
2️⃣ Target 2: Psychological resistance near $100.00
🛡️ Risk Management:
Implement the following risk management techniques to protect your capital and manage risk effectively:
1️⃣ Set a stop-loss order below the lower trendline to safeguard against unexpected price reversals.
2️⃣ Adjust position size based on your risk tolerance and overall portfolio management strategy.
🔔 Conclusion:
Stay watchful as Filecoin ( TSX:FIL ) continues to develop this falling wedge pattern. The formation suggests the potential for a bullish reversal in the near future. However, please remember that technical analysis has limitations, and market conditions can change. Consider incorporating additional analysis and fundamental factors before making any trading decisions.
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Happy Trading! 📈💰
#TradingView #TechnicalAnalysis #FallingWedge #BullishReversal #FIL #StockAnalysis #ChartPatterns #TradingStrategies #Investing #Finance #MarketAnalysis
AUDJPY: falling wedgeAfter a strong rally, the AUD/JPY has recently formed a falling wedge pattern, which it has now broken out from. This suggests that we can anticipate further upside momentum as it aims to retest previous highs. Traders should keep a close eye on this pair as it presents potential trading opportunities in the ongoing upward trend.
Daily chart:
Good trading!
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NZDCHF ____ INCOMING BEARISH MOVEHello Traders,
I did an analysis on this pair some days ago (inserted below). My bias hasn't still changed.
I still speculate that NZDCHF will make it to TP. Not to be rigid or dogmatic in my approach, but the market structure as of today supports the bearish move.
Also, NZDSGD which is a correlated pair is having same bearish structure.
You may want to keep this on your radar.
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NZDCHF Previous Analysis
NZDSGD Correlated Pair
Cheers,
Jabari
NZDSGD ____ INCOMING BEARISH MOVEHello Traders,
We have a case where price has retraced into the daily order block and has consolidated for some days now. However, I think NZDSGD is ready for the bearish move.
I will be monitoring the retracement into the indicated region on my chart for an entry in the 1-hour timeframe.
Follow for more updates like this.
Cheers,
Jabari