Tradingstrategy
When to add to a trading set-up/plan and when to leave it alone.It can be a very daunting task to create a trading plan/strategy that fits you without conflict. There are a lot of obstacles that inhibit the average trader from leaving a profitable trading plan or strategy as it is. Even I struggle with this which is why I have decided to publish this article. After much reflection, I have come with a few metrics you can use to determine if you should change your trading plan or not.
Mental Capacity
Mental Capacity, to me, is perhaps the most important aspects of trading. It easily differentiates traders that are absolutely determined to become successful and traders that are bound to become scam traders and losers (no pun intended). Mental capacity resonates itself in a traders ability to deal with traumatic trading experienced such as drawdowns and losing trades. A lot of traders don’t understand that trading is a game of probability so you have to make a lot of money when you’re right and lose a little when you’re wrong. If you make 4X the money you lose, you’ll have to lose more than 80% of the time to not be profitable. Understanding and having mental capacity allows a trader the ability to ignore irrational phobia of thinking that their strategy is not working. If your trading plan/strategy fits you mentally then you should have the mental capacity to accept all the things that can happen to you trading wise. If not, then it’s time for you to change it. Trading is a mental game, always.
Objective
As much as I love the mental side of trading, I do have to admit that objectives are very important in trading as well. If you’re trading a strategy that is not fulfilling your objective (based on reasonable probabilities) then it’s time to switch components of your strategy. I hate to admit this as I am a big believer in having a “Mind like water.” When it comes to trading but if you have an ever burning passionate desire to make 4X what you risk and also to follow the trend then it’s not recommended to deny yourself of this desire as it will one day influence you to give in and break your trading plan. The solution to this, in my opinion, is to take your objective and create your plan/ strategy around it. For example, if I have a goal of making at least 100 pips per 25 pips that I risk then maybe I should trade on a higher time frame while using psychological support and resistance levels. The moral of this part of the article is to exemplify the fact that any undesired occurrence a traders mental capacity can’t handle can easily be resolved by having an objective ( not having a 30% DD) and a solution (maybe I should hedge my trades or buy options) that can help you acquire that objective. The solution in return will let you know that it’s time for you to change your strategy, but if it doesn’t resolve the objective then keep it as is.
Compatibility
I’m going to try to keep this part simple mostly because it’s somewhat related to the objective side of this article but at the same time is a very important part to keeping and tossing your trading plan. No matter how much money you are making in trading, if you aren’t compatible with your trading plan then it will all be in vain. It isn’t logical for a trader who loves waiting to be a scalper and vice versa because when this happens it makes the trader feel that they have to change instead of the trading strategy. It has to be the other way around! Trust me, I learned this the hard way because I always got jealous of high leveraged scalpers making 1k days while I was making 2% per month if I got lucky. When I tried copying them it forced me to change into timeframes/trading strategies that I was not compatible with. My advice to any trader struggling with this is to love yourself and you’re trading because it’s your decisions and perspective that determine profitability.
OANDA:EURUSD
The Bitcoin Range I am WatchingBitcoin remains in it's $300 range on the mid time frames. I am patiently waiting to see if we break down to offer an entry on the higher time frames over the coming days or we push up and may provide some shorter time frame opportunities. I also throw in at the end a chart I am stalking closely for a breakout.
How to find high probability trends on any currency pair.This is a very descriptive example on how a trader can find high probability trades that are very unlikely to reverse. The markets are full of fractals so this strategy should be good for any timeframe but I highly suggest you use these timeframes as follows. If you place trades using the 4hr, use the daily for trend (example on the chart). If you place trades using the daily time frame (recommended) use the weekly time frame for the trend by using the same exact method but on the open, high, low, and close, of the weekly charts. Please leave a lime and comment as this encourages me to create new content for you guys every Friday. Feel free to message me. FX:EURUSD
Three things Mark Douglas taught me. (Pt1)Psychology
Psychology, like anything in life, plays a big role on how humans function. It affects the way we think, act, talk, and so on but when it comes to trading it affects us, oddly enough, in only one way and that’s through our emotions. Any experienced (or shall I say inexperienced) trader knows and understands the waves of overwhelming emotions that resonates based off of a trade that’s a loser. These emotions range from sadness, depression, anger, and the list goes on. The reason for this, if I’m not mistaken, is because of the pure fact that the money we use to trade with is hard earned and even when it’s not it’s something that rightfully belongs to us. Human nature is something that’s extremely difficult to change because it's part of our genetic make-up that has allowed us to stay for so long by encouraging us to stay away from things that we don’t understand or that will hurt us. Trading psychology is definitely the hardest thing to master when it comes to trading because your psyche works against you when you're being hurt mentally (losing trades) and works for you when you're euphoric (winning trades). As if this couldn’t get any worse, a hurting mentality will tap you into a pool of past failures or misfortunes that have happened to you in life and convince you to think you're not any good as a trader and that your strategy is useless. This baffled me when I learned this from Mark Douglas because it wasn’t something that I realized. This fact is very important because it means you and only you alone are able to break this cycle of assuming a bad trade means a bad setup. A losing trade has absolutely no correlation to you as a person so you shouldn’t assume that you're the reason why you have a losing trade. According to Mark Douglas, it only takes one person around the world to negate your edge. This basically means that when you're buying, someone around the world is selling. When there are more bears (sellers) than buyers (bulls) you're long trade is no longer able to be profitable and stops you out depending on your risk. The markets are full of newcomers and unprofitable traders that agree on the wrong thing together and thus makes the impossible or improbable possible. This gets even more tricky because it makes you, the person on the other side of the trade, feel unsuccessful. This is not true! A losing trade does not represent a bad setup but because our phycology wants to protect us from losing money (what hurts us) it tricks us into thinking that we are unsuccessful as traders. The solution to this is to simply accept the risk of the trade by trading a strategy or setup that is profitable through backtesting. Mr Douglas implored that back testing should be done through 20 trade sample size to give accurate results. When I first started trading back in late 2016 I would always hear profitable traders talk about trading psychology and not trading strategies. I never knew why until I tool Mark Douglas’ principals into consideration and for that I am grateful.
(see pt2)
GENESIS VISION VS BITCOIN PRICE ANALYSIS AND FORCAST | 25 APRIL|GVT/BTC HAS BEEN IN A DOWNTREND AFTER MAKING AN ALL TIME HIGH TWO MONTHS BACK AND THIS PHENOMENON IS COMPLETELY NORMAL. WHEN SOMETHING QUICKLY GOES UP, IT ALSO DOES PRICE CORRECTION BEFORE MAKING ANOTHER LEG UP. AS SHOWN IN THE CHART, IT'S MOVING INSIDE A FALLING WEDGE AND I AM EXPECTING THE DECISION VERY SOON. THERE'S ALSO A FOREX EXPO EVENT ON MAY 22 WHICH COULD ALSO GIVE THIS PROJECT A DECENT EXPOSURE AND ALSO BRING SOME SOUND INVESTORS WHICH COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN THE TOTAL MARKET CAP OF THE COIN. IN MY OPINION, IT'S WORTH ACCUMULATING AT THESE LEVELS AND HOLD FOR AT LEAST A MONTH OR TWO. PLEASE DO NOT BLINDLY TAKE THIS AS A FINANCIAL ADVICE AND DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING IN ANY PROJECT. THE FINAL DECISION WILL BE YOURS.
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USDJPY Get down you dirty dog! #bitchbetterhavemymoneySo USDJPY has been grinding down the price levels for some time now, here is a simple profitable set up for a further short scenario.
Take a Short from here and hold. 101 is my personal target profit take and I suggest if you follow that you do the same. My stop is set at 106.600
Time duration of the trade I would expect to be no longer than two weeks at most. Good luck if you take it on. Let me know with some feedback and banter.
The future of SPX500 - NFP daySo in my humble opinion we have a clear head and shoulders pattern, along with Fib match up to coincide with the NFP report today.
Right now I am managing a good client out of an aweful hedge and so this is very crucial for me. The price simply must get up to the target sell level so that I can smash from the top and hit down to close out the bad side of the hedge.
My biggest wet dream right now would be to see the NFP pump the rate on SPX500 up to 2135. Truly though anything above 2119 will do me just fine.
My suggestion is to go LONG until 2130 - Then smash down with everything you have for the next month or so.
Come check me on twitter also if you rock that @rscexclusive
EURUSD - Ride the waves dude"Dude!" That's right, time to get out your FX surfboards. Until later today when US data and the ECB president Mario speaks you can be sure that we are going to be riding the combined waves of Elliot and Fib.
Short term binary CALLS are what in my opinion will work here, but please do keep in mind EVERY single trade is a risk. And this is just MY OPINION.
That being said I expect us to touch up to the lighter green (0.382) Fib level before too long today,
Welcome to the drop - USDJPYSo many of us out there wish to truly capitalise on the huge jumps and troughs out there on all major pairs.
My firm belief is that we are about to continue into unprecedented low field price and that the worst is still yet to come. Dont forget what happens everytime an ECB or FED talking head gets on the screen....Generally the market falls as all they ever promote is more stupid uncertainty or a sheer view as to how thick they truly are concerning quantative measures for economic stabilty growth and future prowess.
Right now for Binary take that USDJPY down for the next 4/5 hours with 15 minute expiration positions.
Check out the other analysis posted up for the safer route via GOLD.
Feedback and ideas welcome! adam@stbinary.com if you want me personally ;)