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[AUDUSD Short] 27 Jan, 2021 - Roger V Trading IdeasAUDUSD Trading idea comment: The previous AUDUSD trading idea provided on the 12th of November 2020 was expired after the breakout of the final SL resistance level of 0.736000. The direction changed from bearish to bullish after the breakout. Market during the first half of January in 2021 was very quiet and did not fluctuate much for most pairs. However, I was looking around at the market on the 10th of Jan 2021 and saw some price action signal with the US Dollar index forming an earlier stage of reversal to a bullish direction. In relation to this matter, AUDUSD is one of the major pairs that correlate with US Dollar Index. If US dollar goes strong in its value, inversely AUDUSD goes in a bearish direction. Vice versa with US Dollar index going weak against with AUDUSD. It took me 17 days from 10th January 2021 to 27th January 2021, to make a decision that AUDUSD can be one of the selected pairs in the list to go for its trading opportunity. AUDUSD has been in a consolidation of its high and low between 0.769000 to 0.782000 (Still currently on-going with the consolidation.) What is the reason to finally decided to trade AUDUSD? It was a tough decision this morning to decide AUDUSD to confirm to have it be a part of the selected trading pairs. Main factors I see that made my decision for AUDUSD: 1. Price Action a. Upper shadow high for each candle is lowering each week, and no new highs is breaking up the highest one. AUDUSD Weekly Chart a. Descending Triangle pattern channeling i. It is quite similar to the price action. However, the difference between descending triangle is that, it looks at the breakout of the triangle. If it breaks upwards, it means that the trend will go in a bullish. Vice versa, if breaks downwards then it will go in a bearish trend. AUDUSD Daily Chart 3. US Dollar Index volatility strength a. An in depth/ update about the US Dollar index is written in the follow articles i. 12 Jan 2021 - US Dollar Index (Read more) ii. 21 Jan 2021 - US Dollar Index (Read more) Extra Notes: Taking note that AUDUSD previous effective high happened in July 2017 going pass 0.78XXXX. (Please refer to the image below to see the chart.) The high gone over 0.78XXX in 2021 is considered the only effective high comparing with the past 3 years. When new highs are created, to be more conservative it is best to wait for more signals on the higher time frame until it gets more stable and then start after that to have a higher possible winning accuracy for the pair. Right now, this trading idea is announced. Roger V will put this pair in list to try for its trading opportunity for AUDUSD. Worst Case Scenario: Two options: 1. Can wait or ask Roger V on Roger V Diamond Club, to see if the trend is actually true breakout or false break. a. If true breakout - try to find a lower loss to stop loss. b. If false breakout - hold it, and carefully look at the weakening signal from M15 to H4. (Same method as looking at the weakening signal candlestick combination taught in group.) 2. Can stop loss straight away at the final SL, if the loss amount has gone over your expectation. (This is to be known before you make any orders.) Best Case Scenario: Trend does not breakout final SL of 0.867000 support level. Once reach target 1 0.895000 and gets resisted and goes in a retracement. Re-entries for long position will be available among the new re-entry trading idea. -------------------- (Note: The forecast above is an estimation of the resistance/ support level for the entry, TP, and SL. For more precise positions will depend on the shape formed with the candlestick at the time.) -------------------- Disclaimer: ALuoTradingJournal does not provide any personal advice or general advice. This is only a journal to keep ALuo in noting the trades and what the market is going on as a trading journal. ALuo will not take any responsibility for any profits or losses. Please trade at your own risk.
Short
by aluotradingjournal
Review of CADCHF last week two out of three hit target 🎯💲🏦Hello Traders Hope Sunday and the much needed rest is treating you all well. I spend parts of my Sunday looking back at the prior trading week. In doing so I've decided to share some ideas on completed trades and the methods I trade our script. Going forward during the week I'll look to post more live ideas as our script present them on the charts. At weekends I'll use time to review trades I've enter in order to shed more light on my methods. Here we are working the 30M time on CADCHF. I have the strategy in use set to a risk reward ratio of just over 1:2. Last week we had three trades of which two hit the take profit target set. As you will see from the chart I simply enter the trades that present on the chart and get on with rest of my day! I have a TradingView alert set to inform me of a new trade. These trades took me minutes to place, the two trades played out over a 32 hour period banking 57 pips! I simply wait for the next alert now which might be some time next week. Our strategy is a trend following strategy, can be used on any instrument and time frame. When all confluences are met the strategy presents the trade on the chart. I am alerted to this by a TradingView alert. I simply enter the trade and all of the trade data is printed next to the alert. Take profit and stop loss are set and I simply follow the trades outcome. The script runs on your TradingView charts and can be used on forex pairs,indices, stocks and crypto. The script can also be adapted to run on the charts to suit how you trade. The script removes all need for manual trading analysis freeing up so much more time. One of the most valuable tools the script possesses is the built in strategy tester. Once I have selected an instrument and time frame to work. I adjust the strategy settings and back test those settings until I find the best settings to then go and place trades on the market. For the pair in question here the back test data can be found at the foot of this idea. I started trading CADCHF in this manner back in July. The back tester data shown is from January 2020. This level of data allows our traders to build robust trading plans and strategies. No one can predict the future but this data does help with confidence and removes negative emotions we have all suffered while trading. Working to rigid planned trading strategies removes all uncertainty around entering trades. For this pair I know the pair has a ROI of 63% and a win rate of 44% based on 109 trades of data, risking 1% a trade on £1000 starting capital. When I enter trades I simply let them run knowing the back test data backs up this method of trading works. The old me would of regretted the last trade seeing an initial 15 pip gain disappear on the retrace into a negative. But having a roust proven strategy to stick too I know let trades run and in this case to a take profit hit. The old me would of dipped out and lost out on that profit. This mechanical way of trading doesn't even see me looking at the charts much other that to place trades and write ideas! Make 2021 the year you spend less time at the charts! To learn more on the methods discussed please drop me a message.
by RichScott
GBPNZD short trade on the move ↘️✅📉Hello traders. Before I logged off for the day I just had to get this idea out for GBPNZD short trade which has made the right move so far. This pair got me an editors pick on a previous idea and as a results holds good vibes for me. That idea can be found in the link at the bottom of this. We are working the 45M chart here using our strategy is set to a 1:1.7 risk reward ratio. The strategy in use simply sits in your TradingView and can be set to how you want to trade. The strategy is a trend follow strategy and we simply enter trades when they are alerted to us. In this case I am working to a take profit target of 113 pips and have a stop loss set at 60 pips. How do I know this method of trading employed works on the pair in question? The strategy we use comes complete with a built in back tester. The way I have the strategy set up to trade this pair I know from the back test data the pairs past performance trading in this manner. That data can be found at the foot of this idea. Data is based on £2000 starting capital with 2% risked. The data tested is a full years worth of data but can go back further. Having the data of 83% profit and 48% win rate based on 86 previous trades gives me great confidence to go and execute trades in the market place using the strategy I have applied. I don't recommend jumping on random trades found on TradingView as that is no clear trading plan and consistent results wont be achieved. Instead take the time to press the sub menus on the data show below and noticed how every trade is also logged and accounted for by the tester. It's this level of clarity and having a robust trading plan that gives consistent results. For any more information on the strategy in use please feel free to drop me a message.
Short
by RichScott