Is USDJPY going to reach its 50% OE target this time?(1)We have entered USDJPY on the daily confirmation bar on a long trade. This is based on a daily P1 trend continuation move, and along with a weekly continuation trade move according to our smart money framework indicator. You can see on the image below on which part of the cycle we are in on the weekly timeframe and how that matches up with the daily timeframe. According to our OE tables, we can see that there is a more than 40% chance since it is a phase 1 move that the weekly potential high will be taken and for the long move to continue further north.
USDJPY(Short)
E - 147.45
ISL - 146.10
T - TBC
We will be tracking this move and updating the post as we go along on the charts and on video. Keep a look out for it traders.
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1.Trader Starter Pack 5 day video course
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2.7 steps to achieve consistent trading performance
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Tradingtips
Mastering Trading Psychology: Overcoming Failures and Embracing Hello, friends! I'd like to discuss with you the situation of our failures in trading. What causes them and what to do about them in the future:
1) Traders that go into the market don't accept the risk they are putting on when they get into a trade. Traders who trade based on their PnL and not their strategies. Traders who are afraid to take a loss and see red in their account or their positions. When you trade from a place of fear(losing money), and not from a risk standpoint, your mind will mess with you, and it will destroy the psychology that is needed to become profitable.
2) Fear-based traders worry about their PnL more than the actual trading setups that are presented to them. They base their decisions on emotions and are the type that end up chasing moves from FOMO, whether it's long or short. They hold losers too long hoping they turn around because they're fearful that if they cut the trade, it will turn in their direction. They chase moves out of FEAR that they'll miss the move.
3) A risk-minded trader understands that they will inevitably be wrong at times and take losing trades. They respect when they're wrong and cut the position. No fear about it. Purely risk management and understanding you are not correct 100% of the time.
Now, let's move on to the conclusion: You can't win or lose a trade; your task is to run a marathon. And that is the MAIN RULE!
Let's talk about books now. Numerous books are available, and I select the ones I consider the best.
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefevre. 100 years old this year and an absolute classic
Dynamic hedging by Taleb
One Good Trade: Mike Bellafiore
It's a good book for beginners, emphasizing discipline, and risk management and vibe of trading journey.
That's the end of this story, traders. I would like to read in the comments below your thoughts and ideas! Let's keep charting!
Learn the 4 Best Strategies to Maximize Your Profits Today
In the today's article, we will discuss 4 classic yet profitable forex and gold trading strategies.
1️⃣Pullback Trading
Pullback trading is a trend-following strategy where you open the positions after pullbacks.
If the market is trading in a bullish trend, your goal as a pullback trader is to wait for a completion of a bullish impulse and then let the market correct itself. Your entry should be the assumed completion point of a correctional movement. You expect a trend-following movement from there.
In a bearish trend, you wait for a completion of the bearish impulse, let the market retrace, and you look for short-entry after a completion of the retracement leg.
Here is the example of pullback trading.
On the left chart, we see the market that is trading in a bearish trend.
A pullback trader would short the market upon completion of the correctional moves.
On the right chart, I underlined the buy entry points of a pullback trader.
That strategy is considered to be one of the simplest and profitable and appropriate for newbie traders.
2️⃣Breakout Trading
Breakout trading implies buying or selling the breakout of a horizontal structure or a trend line.
If the price breaks a key support, it signifies a strong bearish pressure.
Such a violation will trigger a bearish continuation with a high probability.
Alternatively, a bullish breakout of a key resistance is a sign of strength of the buyers and indicates a highly probable bullish continuation.
Take a look, how the price broke a key daily resistance on a daily time frame. After a breakout, the market retested the broken structure that turned into a support. A strong bullish rally initiated from that.
With the breakout trading, the best entries are always on a retest of a broken structure.
3️⃣Range Trading
Range trading signifies trading the market that is consolidating.
Most of the time, the market consolidates within the horizontal ranges.
The boundaries of the range may provide safe points to buy and sell the market from.
The upper boundary of the range is usually a strong resistance and one may look for shorting opportunities from there,
while the lower boundary of the range is a safe place to buy the market from.
EURCAD pair is trading within a horizontal range on a daily.
The support of the range is a safe zone to buy the market from.
A bullish movement is anticipated to the resistance of the range from there.
Taking into considerations, that the financial instruments may consolidate for days, weeks and even months, range trading may provide substantial gains.
4️⃣Counter Trend Trading
Counter trend trading signifies trading against the trend.
No matter how strong is the trend, the markets always trade in zig-zags. After impulses follow the corrections, and after the corrections follow the impulses.
Counter trend traders looks for a completion of the bullish impulses in a bullish trend to short the market;
and for a completion of bearish impulses in a downtrend to buy it.
Here is the example of a counter trend trade.
EURJPY is trading in a bullish trend. However, the last 3 bearish moves initiated from a rising trend line. For a trader, shorting the trend line was a perfect entry to catch a bearish move.
Such trading strategy is considered to be one of the most complicated, because one goes against the crowd and overall sentiment.
With the experience, traders may combine these strategies.
Try them all, and find the one that suites you the most.
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Initiation. Accumulation. PumpHow to trade coins after listing? Here is logic of IAP model
BINANCE:APTUSDT
When people get tokens after airdrop or launchpad, most likely on first candle we will see seller pressure. This model works in general only for fundamental projects, where even people who get tokens for free will hold it for long term. Because we got a lot of examples when this model doesn't work and price crashed under listing price. Also we need pay attention in what market period we see this listing. Because if it's a beginning of bear market this model most likely also will not works.
Initiation - Formation price imbalance in the broad price range at the time of listing
coins can be interpreted as an initiating impulse, who doesn't leave fair traded price zones on ways of its formation and in here will be be nearest target. We can use Fib from the bottom to the top candle before correction or just count only body of first Daily close candle.
Accumulation - Price reaction to price imbalance initiating impulse is
a direct indication of the presence or lack of accumulation character on the chart. Zones for accumulation before pump will be classic 0.618 / 0.71/ 0.86 levels by fib.
Pump - last stage of this model is a Pump, minimal target for this trade can be -0.27 and -0.618 level by fib where you can fix profit. On this example with Aptos it was over 500% pump. After pump depends of market stage and cycle price can continue parabolic move up or correction again to 0.5 or 0.618 level by same fib.
Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch!
✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes.
---
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CADCHF: descending channelThe CAD/CHF is moving within a descending channel. Currently, a strong support is holding the price, and if it breaks, a significant decline is expected. However, there's a possibility it might return to the top of the channel before that. Nevertheless, if it were to break out of the channel to the upside, I anticipate a larger correction.
If you find it useful, like, follow, share!
Good trading!
Learn the KEY PRINCIPLES of Technical Analysis
In the today's article, we will discuss the absolute basics of trading - 3 key principles of technical analysis.
1️⃣History Repeats
History tends to repeat itself in the Forex market.
Certain trends are cyclical and may reemerge in a predictable manner, certain key levels are respected again and again over time.
Take a look at the example:
Silver perfectly respected a historical horizontal resistance in 2011 that was respected in 1980 already. Moreover, the price action before and after the tests of the underlined zone were absolutely identical.
2️⃣Priced In
All relevant information about a currency pair: economical and political events, rumors, and facts; is already reflected in a price.
When the FED increased the rate 26th of July by 25 bp, EURUSD bounced instead of falling. Before the rate hike, the market was going down on EXPECTATIONS of a rate hike. The release of the news was already price in.
3️⃣Pattern DO Work
Some specific price models can be applied for predicting the future price movements.
Technicians strongly believe that certain formations - being applied and interpreted properly, can give the edge on the market.
Depending on the trading style, different categories of patterns exist: harmonic patterns, price action patterns, wave patterns, candlestick patterns...
Above, I have listed various price action patterns that are applied by many traders and investors as the main tool for analyzing the financial markets.
If you believe in these 3 principles , you are an inborn technician!
Study technical analysis and learn to apply these principles to make money in trading.
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Common Pitfalls Newbie Traders Should Avoid 🌿🌐💰
Embarking on a forex trading journey is both thrilling and daunting. The potential for profit lures many, but the path to success is riddled with pitfalls, especially for new traders. In this article, we'll explore some of the biggest mistakes newcomers often make in forex trading, offering insights and real-world examples to help you steer clear of these treacherous waters.
The Pitfalls and How to Avoid Them
1. Overleveraging:
One of the most common blunders is overleveraging. New traders may be tempted to use high leverage to amplify their gains, but this also escalates the risk of substantial losses. Remember, leverage is a double-edged sword; while it can magnify profits, it can do the same for losses.
2. Lack of Risk Management:
Neglecting risk management is another grave error. Some new traders jump into trades without setting stop-loss orders or defining acceptable risk levels. This exposes them to significant losses if the market moves against their positions.
3. Ignoring Education:
Forex trading is not a gamble; it's a skill that requires continuous learning. Newbie traders often underestimate the importance of education and dive into the market ill-prepared. Lack of knowledge can lead to costly mistakes.
Forex trading offers immense potential, but it's not a shortcut to riches. Newbie traders often fall into common traps like overleveraging, neglecting risk management, and lacking proper education. To succeed in the forex jungle, approach trading with caution, prioritize education, and develop disciplined risk management strategies. Remember, avoiding these pitfalls can make the difference between a costly lesson and a thriving trading career. 🌟📊🚀
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Your ULTIMATE Guide For Time Frames in Trading
If you just started trading, you are probably wondering what time frames to trade. In the today's post, I will reveal the difference between mainstream time frames like daily, 4h, 1h, 15m.
Firstly, you should know that the selection of a time frame primarily depends on your goals in trading.
If you are interested in swing trading strategies, of course, you should concentrate on higher time frames analysis while for scalping the main focus should be on lower time frames.
Daily time frame shows a bigger picture.
It can be applied for the analysis of a price action for the last weeks, months, and even years.
It reveals the historical key levels that can be relevant for swing traders, day traders and scalpers.
The patterns that are formed on a daily time frame may predict long-term movements.
In the picture above, you can see how the daily time frame can show the price action for the last years, months and weeks.
In contrast, hourly time frame reflects intraweek & intraday perspectives.
The patterns and key levels that are spotted there, will be important for day traders and scalpers.
The setups that are spotted on an hourly time frame, will be useful for predicting the intraday moves and occasionally the moves within a trading week.
Take a look at the 2 charts above, the hourly time frame perfectly shows the market moves within a week and within a single day.
4H time frame is somewhere in between. For both swing trader and day trader, it may provide some useful confirmations.
4H t.f shows intraweek and week to week perspectives.
Above, you can see how nicely 4H time frame shows the price action on EURUSD within a week and for the last several weeks.
15 minutes time frame is a scalping time frame.
The setups and levels that are spotted there can be used to predict the market moves within hours or within a trading session.
Check the charts above: 15 minutes time frame shows both the price action within a London session and the price action for the last couple of hours.
It is also critical to mention, that lower is the time frame, lower is the accuracy of the patterns and lower is the strength of key levels that are identified there. It makes higher time frame analysis more simple and reliable.
The thing is that higher is the time frame, more important it is for the market participants.
While lower time frames can help to predict short term moves, higher time frames are aimed for predicting long-term trends.
Is GBPUSD low at 1.2616 going to hold and become a W bottom(6)This is in reference to our previous idea of us entering on the 4H timeframe bottom confirmation towards a daily bottom and then a weekly bottom to confirm. It was entered based on price and volume spread analysis rationale and the cycle framework methodology by the smart money indicator. Please refer to our reference videos below.
As of today, the trailing stop loss based on the daily timeframe got hit. We successfully captured a 4h bottom holding onto to become a daily bottom. However, the daily bottom did not hold to become a weekly confirmed bottom as today's massive seller bar took out the daily low. By understanding the cycle and smart money framework, we are not put off by this loss but see it is as one of many trades for the strategy edge to work out over the the law of numbers. The sequence of trading events are shown by the numbered points on the chart from the time we entered to the time we exited.
Here is the reference image of the trade we initially took.
All reference ideas and images are as below.
If you have any questions or comments, list them below.
Is E-mini futures 15min bottom going to hold for Daily RangeWe are looking at a potential entry on 5min bottom confirmation by the Smart Money and the VSA lite indicator. It is supported by the volume spikes as you can see on the chart image for the 15min bottom to hold. We are looking for price to go upward and hit the target in regards to capturing the daily ATR range. Reference videos to watch are the stretch principle videos originated by institutional quant traders which are included below.
Timezone Sessions for intraday trading
Here is an examples of most often models for intraday
Asia range - London manipulation - NY reversal
Asia expansion - London consolidation - NY continuation
Asia range - London expansion - NY consolidation
Hunting liquidity stop losses
Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch!
✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes.
---
• Look at my ideas about interesting altcoins in the related section down below ↓
• For more ideas please hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Is GBPUSD low at 1.2616 going to hold and become a W bottom(4)This is in reference to our previous idea of us entering on the 4H timeframe bottom confirmation towards a daily bottom and then a weekly bottom to confirm. It was entered based on price and volume spread analysis rationale and the cycle framework methodology by the smart money indicator. Please refer to our reference videos below.
As of today, the daily bar seems to be going against us. At this moment,most traders will panic and look to bail out of the trade. However, when you know your strategy rules and its edge over the law of numbers, you will stick in the trade. In this trade, till the potential daily bottom (as in the image below) is taken out, trade is still valid. We can look for potential trailing levels looking at the 4h timeframe.
Let's wait and see. Patience is virtue.
P.S. Remember that the principles from these ideas can be cross transferred to any strategy.
US30 weekly top overdue for a UT P2 moveWe are waiting for the the top to confirm on the weekly timeframe on US30. Once top confirms, this will be a weekly P2 move on US30. Then we will be looking at the daily timeframe for bottom confirmations to ride the P1 move on weekly. We are following the smart money framework based on cycles and the volume spread analysis methodology to capture the turning points in the market and to ride the big runners.
Please refer to our previous live stream video series on the cycle framework methodology.
The Cup and Handle Pattern in TradingGreetings, fellow traders and investors of @TradingView 📈🚀
Keep your eye for cup and handle pattern, a chart formation that hints at potential market possibilities.
The Cup and Handle:
Visualize a cup, complete with a 'U' shape and accompanied by a handle. This chart pattern mimics that very shape, capturing price shifts that can hint at noteworthy market movements. Here's the essence: a cup forms through a gradual downward trajectory, leading to a stabilizing phase, and eventually, a rally that mirrors the extent of the initial decline. This sequence of price action is pivotal in identifying the characteristic cup and handle formation.
Initiated by low trading volume, the formation gathers momentum with rising volume as the left lip of the cup takes form. Subsequently, volume recedes near the cup's bottom, only to surge again towards the right lip and breakout.
The initiation involves a dip in price, followed by stabilization, and finally, a rally that aims to retrace the plummet's impact.
As the cup materializes, it curves into a 'U' shape, while the price dips slightly to craft the handle. Notably, the handle must be smaller than the cup and should exhibit a minor downward trend within the trading range. It's imperative that the handle doesn't dip below one-third of the cup's depth.
Strategy and Execution
Now, how can you effectively trade this compelling pattern? The strategy involves positioning a limit buy order just above the upper resistance of the cup and handle. Simultaneously, set a stop-loss order slightly below the handle's support. This calculated approach ensures that your buy order triggers only when the price breaks through the upper resistance level. This cautious measure shields you from premature entry due to false breakouts.
For traders seeking an extra layer of assurance, patiently waiting for the price to conclusively close above the upper trendline of the handle can provide a higher degree of certainty before initiating the trade.
🌟 Wishing you successful trades and profitable outcomes as you leverage insights from @Vestinda. Remember, patience and careful analysis are your allies on trading path.
Happy trading! 💰
Waiting for EURUSD weekly top to confirm before trading P1 moveWe are looking to capture a weekly P1 move on EURUSD after the top confirms on the weekly timeframe. We are following the smart money framework based on cycles and the volume spread analysis methodology to catpure the turning points in the market and to ride the big runners.
Is GBPUSD low at 1.2616 going to hold and become a W bottom(2)This is in reference to our previous idea of us entering on the 4H timeframe bottom confirmation towards a daily bottom and then a weekly bottom to confirm. It was entered based on price and volume spread analysis rationale. Let us check and see if the bottom confirms today according to the smart money framework. So far, the daily is going in our favour.:)
Refn Images as below.
Trading Exposed: The Hard-Hitting Truth Behind the 99% Who Fail
The picture above completely represents the real nature of trading:
We all came here because we all wanted easy money.
Being attracted by catchy ads, portraying the guys on lambos, wearing guccies and living fancy lives, we jump into the game with high hopes of doubling our tiny initial trading accounts.
However, the reality quickly kicks in and losing trades become the norm.
The first trading account will most likely be blown.
In just one single month, 40% of traders will be discouraged and abandon this game forever.
The rest will realize the fact that the things are not that simple as they seemed to be and decide to start learning.
The primary obstacle with trading education though is the fact that there are so much data out there , so many different materials, so many strategies and techniques to try, so the one feels completely lost .
And on that stage, one plays the roulette: in the pile of dirt, he must find the approach that works.
80% of the traders, who stay after the first month, will leave in the next 2 years. Unfortunately, the majority won't be able to find a valid strategy and will quit believing that the entire system is the scam.
After 5 years, the strongest will remain. The ones that are motivated and strong enough to face the failures.
With such an experience, the majority of the traders already realize how the things work. They usually stuck around breakeven and winning trades start covering the losing ones.
However, some minor, tiny component is still missing in their system. They should find something that prevents them from becoming consistently profitable.
Only 1% of those who came in this game will finally discover the way to make money. These individuals will build a solid strategy, an approach that will work and that will let them become independent.
That path is hard and long. And unfortunately, most of the people are not disciplined and motivated enough to keep going . Only the strongest ones will stay. I wish you to be the one with the iron discipline, titanic patience and nerves of steel.
Is BTCUSD low at 28477 going to hold and become a weekly bottom We are looking at a potential entry on daily seller bar high to be taken out for price to continue further upwards and go onto confirm the bottom on daily and then weekly according to our smart money framework indicator.
BTCUSD(Long)
E - 30035
SL - 28476
T - To be confirmed(TBC)
We will be tracking this move and updating the post as we go along on the charts and on video. Keep a look out for it traders.
Is GBPUSD low at 1.2616 going to hold and become a weekly bottomWe are looking at a potential entry on 4h bottom confirmation according to our smart money framework indicator and for it to go onto confirm the bottom on daily and then weekly.
E - 1.2711
SL - 1.2615
T - To be confirmed(TBC)
We will be tracking this move and updating the post as we go along on the charts and on video. Keep a look out for it traders.
Analyzing Confirmation Bias in Forex and Gold Trading
Psychological biases play a significant role in shaping trading decisions, and one such bias that demands scrutiny is confirmation bias.
Confirmation bias refers to the tendency of individuals to seek out, interpret, and emphasize information that supports their existing beliefs or preconceptions while ignoring contradictory evidence.
In the forex and gold trading , confirmation bias can have profound implications for traders, influencing their decision-making processes and potentially leading to suboptimal outcomes. This article aims to provide an in-depth understanding of confirmation bias and its impact on forex and gold trading, along with strategies to mitigate its negative effects.
Impact of Confirmation Bias on Forex Trading:
1. Selection and Interpretation of Information: Traders under the influence of confirmation bias tend to cherry-pick information that supports their existing beliefs and ignore or downplay evidence that contradicts them. This can result in an incomplete and biased assessment of the market's true conditions.
2. Overconfidence and Undue Risk-Taking: Confirmation bias can breed overconfidence, leading traders to overlook potential risks. Traders may take excessive risks by holding onto losing trades in the hope that the market will eventually validate their initial belief.
3. Missed Trading Opportunities: By focusing solely on information that confirms their existing beliefs, traders may overlook potential trading opportunities that could have been profitable. This bias restricts their ability to adapt to changing market conditions and identifying alternate trade setups.
Identifying Confirmation Bias:
1. Selective Information Gathering: Traders may exhibit a tendency to seek out sources of information that align with their existing beliefs while ignoring or avoiding contradictory viewpoints.
2. Narrow Framing: Traders might frame and interpret market information in ways that support their pre-existing assumptions, inadvertently excluding alternative perspectives.
3. Dismissing Contradictory Evidence: When presented with evidence that contradicts their beliefs, traders may either reject it outright or rationalize why it is irrelevant or unreliable.
Overcoming Confirmation Bias:
1. Seek Diverse Perspectives: Encourage a broad range of viewpoints by actively seeking out perspectives that challenge your existing beliefs. Engage in discussions with other traders, join forums, or seek professional opinions to diversify your understanding.
2. Consistent Record-Keeping: Maintain a trading journal that accurately documents your trades, rationale, and outcomes. Regularly review this journal to identify any patterns or biases that might be influencing your decision-making process.
Confirmation bias represents a significant cognitive obstacle for traders in forex and gold trading. Understanding its nature and recognizing its impact are crucial steps towards minimizing its negative effects. By adopting strategies focused on self-awareness, diversification, and collaboration, traders can enhance their decision-making processes and improve their overall profitability while navigating the complexities of the forex and gold markets.
Hey traders, let me know what subject do you want to dive in in the next post?
Learn The 5 Possible Outcomes Of Your Trades
Hey traders,
Depending on your actions, you can get 5 completely different results
taking just one single trade.
1️⃣The first outcome is a small win.
By a small win, I mean a winning trade producing up to 2.5% account growth.
2️⃣The opposite situation leads to a small loss.
To me, a small loss is a losing trade producing up to -1% account decline.
3️⃣Occasionally once the price starts moving in the predicted direction, one can protect his trading position moving his stop to entry and making a position risk-free.
Being stopped out such a trade produces 0% profit. The level where the position is closed is called a breakeven point.
4️⃣If one perfectly predicts a future direction of the market and opens a trading position accordingly, occasionally, a huge profit can be made.
5️⃣Being wrong in the predictions, however, one can adjust and trail a stop loss not letting himself be stopped out. Such behavior may lead to a substantial loss or even a margin call.
❗️Learning how to trade, I strongly recommend you eliminate the 5th outcome. Managing not to lose more than 1% of your account will substantially improve your trading.
Let me know, traders, what do you want to learn in the next educational post?
EURAUD - Strong support levelEURAUD has reached significant support, which is the same as Fibonacci level 50-60, so I expect a bounce up to the descending trendline and if it breaks it could target higher resistance levels. If the support breaks, the nearest support level may be the target.
Daily chart:
Good trading!
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