Learn the KEY PRINCIPLES of Technical Analysis
In the today's article, we will discuss the absolute basics of trading - 3 key principles of technical analysis.
1️⃣History Repeats
History tends to repeat itself in the Forex market.
Certain trends are cyclical and may reemerge in a predictable manner, certain key levels are respected again and again over time.
Take a look at the example:
Silver perfectly respected a historical horizontal resistance in 2011 that was respected in 1980 already. Moreover, the price action before and after the tests of the underlined zone were absolutely identical.
2️⃣Priced In
All relevant information about a currency pair: economical and political events, rumors, and facts; is already reflected in a price.
When the FED increased the rate 26th of July by 25 bp, EURUSD bounced instead of falling. Before the rate hike, the market was going down on EXPECTATIONS of a rate hike. The release of the news was already price in.
3️⃣Pattern DO Work
Some specific price models can be applied for predicting the future price movements.
Technicians strongly believe that certain formations - being applied and interpreted properly, can give the edge on the market.
Depending on the trading style, different categories of patterns exist: harmonic patterns, price action patterns, wave patterns, candlestick patterns...
Above, I have listed various price action patterns that are applied by many traders and investors as the main tool for analyzing the financial markets.
If you believe in these 3 principles , you are an inborn technician!
Study technical analysis and learn to apply these principles to make money in trading.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
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Common Pitfalls Newbie Traders Should Avoid 🌿🌐💰
Embarking on a forex trading journey is both thrilling and daunting. The potential for profit lures many, but the path to success is riddled with pitfalls, especially for new traders. In this article, we'll explore some of the biggest mistakes newcomers often make in forex trading, offering insights and real-world examples to help you steer clear of these treacherous waters.
The Pitfalls and How to Avoid Them
1. Overleveraging:
One of the most common blunders is overleveraging. New traders may be tempted to use high leverage to amplify their gains, but this also escalates the risk of substantial losses. Remember, leverage is a double-edged sword; while it can magnify profits, it can do the same for losses.
2. Lack of Risk Management:
Neglecting risk management is another grave error. Some new traders jump into trades without setting stop-loss orders or defining acceptable risk levels. This exposes them to significant losses if the market moves against their positions.
3. Ignoring Education:
Forex trading is not a gamble; it's a skill that requires continuous learning. Newbie traders often underestimate the importance of education and dive into the market ill-prepared. Lack of knowledge can lead to costly mistakes.
Forex trading offers immense potential, but it's not a shortcut to riches. Newbie traders often fall into common traps like overleveraging, neglecting risk management, and lacking proper education. To succeed in the forex jungle, approach trading with caution, prioritize education, and develop disciplined risk management strategies. Remember, avoiding these pitfalls can make the difference between a costly lesson and a thriving trading career. 🌟📊🚀
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Your ULTIMATE Guide For Time Frames in Trading
If you just started trading, you are probably wondering what time frames to trade. In the today's post, I will reveal the difference between mainstream time frames like daily, 4h, 1h, 15m.
Firstly, you should know that the selection of a time frame primarily depends on your goals in trading.
If you are interested in swing trading strategies, of course, you should concentrate on higher time frames analysis while for scalping the main focus should be on lower time frames.
Daily time frame shows a bigger picture.
It can be applied for the analysis of a price action for the last weeks, months, and even years.
It reveals the historical key levels that can be relevant for swing traders, day traders and scalpers.
The patterns that are formed on a daily time frame may predict long-term movements.
In the picture above, you can see how the daily time frame can show the price action for the last years, months and weeks.
In contrast, hourly time frame reflects intraweek & intraday perspectives.
The patterns and key levels that are spotted there, will be important for day traders and scalpers.
The setups that are spotted on an hourly time frame, will be useful for predicting the intraday moves and occasionally the moves within a trading week.
Take a look at the 2 charts above, the hourly time frame perfectly shows the market moves within a week and within a single day.
4H time frame is somewhere in between. For both swing trader and day trader, it may provide some useful confirmations.
4H t.f shows intraweek and week to week perspectives.
Above, you can see how nicely 4H time frame shows the price action on EURUSD within a week and for the last several weeks.
15 minutes time frame is a scalping time frame.
The setups and levels that are spotted there can be used to predict the market moves within hours or within a trading session.
Check the charts above: 15 minutes time frame shows both the price action within a London session and the price action for the last couple of hours.
It is also critical to mention, that lower is the time frame, lower is the accuracy of the patterns and lower is the strength of key levels that are identified there. It makes higher time frame analysis more simple and reliable.
The thing is that higher is the time frame, more important it is for the market participants.
While lower time frames can help to predict short term moves, higher time frames are aimed for predicting long-term trends.
Is GBPUSD low at 1.2616 going to hold and become a W bottom(6)This is in reference to our previous idea of us entering on the 4H timeframe bottom confirmation towards a daily bottom and then a weekly bottom to confirm. It was entered based on price and volume spread analysis rationale and the cycle framework methodology by the smart money indicator. Please refer to our reference videos below.
As of today, the trailing stop loss based on the daily timeframe got hit. We successfully captured a 4h bottom holding onto to become a daily bottom. However, the daily bottom did not hold to become a weekly confirmed bottom as today's massive seller bar took out the daily low. By understanding the cycle and smart money framework, we are not put off by this loss but see it is as one of many trades for the strategy edge to work out over the the law of numbers. The sequence of trading events are shown by the numbered points on the chart from the time we entered to the time we exited.
Here is the reference image of the trade we initially took.
All reference ideas and images are as below.
If you have any questions or comments, list them below.
Is E-mini futures 15min bottom going to hold for Daily RangeWe are looking at a potential entry on 5min bottom confirmation by the Smart Money and the VSA lite indicator. It is supported by the volume spikes as you can see on the chart image for the 15min bottom to hold. We are looking for price to go upward and hit the target in regards to capturing the daily ATR range. Reference videos to watch are the stretch principle videos originated by institutional quant traders which are included below.
Timezone Sessions for intraday trading
Here is an examples of most often models for intraday
Asia range - London manipulation - NY reversal
Asia expansion - London consolidation - NY continuation
Asia range - London expansion - NY consolidation
Hunting liquidity stop losses
Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch!
✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes.
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• Look at my ideas about interesting altcoins in the related section down below ↓
• For more ideas please hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Is GBPUSD low at 1.2616 going to hold and become a W bottom(4)This is in reference to our previous idea of us entering on the 4H timeframe bottom confirmation towards a daily bottom and then a weekly bottom to confirm. It was entered based on price and volume spread analysis rationale and the cycle framework methodology by the smart money indicator. Please refer to our reference videos below.
As of today, the daily bar seems to be going against us. At this moment,most traders will panic and look to bail out of the trade. However, when you know your strategy rules and its edge over the law of numbers, you will stick in the trade. In this trade, till the potential daily bottom (as in the image below) is taken out, trade is still valid. We can look for potential trailing levels looking at the 4h timeframe.
Let's wait and see. Patience is virtue.
P.S. Remember that the principles from these ideas can be cross transferred to any strategy.
US30 weekly top overdue for a UT P2 moveWe are waiting for the the top to confirm on the weekly timeframe on US30. Once top confirms, this will be a weekly P2 move on US30. Then we will be looking at the daily timeframe for bottom confirmations to ride the P1 move on weekly. We are following the smart money framework based on cycles and the volume spread analysis methodology to capture the turning points in the market and to ride the big runners.
Please refer to our previous live stream video series on the cycle framework methodology.
The Cup and Handle Pattern in TradingGreetings, fellow traders and investors of @TradingView 📈🚀
Keep your eye for cup and handle pattern, a chart formation that hints at potential market possibilities.
The Cup and Handle:
Visualize a cup, complete with a 'U' shape and accompanied by a handle. This chart pattern mimics that very shape, capturing price shifts that can hint at noteworthy market movements. Here's the essence: a cup forms through a gradual downward trajectory, leading to a stabilizing phase, and eventually, a rally that mirrors the extent of the initial decline. This sequence of price action is pivotal in identifying the characteristic cup and handle formation.
Initiated by low trading volume, the formation gathers momentum with rising volume as the left lip of the cup takes form. Subsequently, volume recedes near the cup's bottom, only to surge again towards the right lip and breakout.
The initiation involves a dip in price, followed by stabilization, and finally, a rally that aims to retrace the plummet's impact.
As the cup materializes, it curves into a 'U' shape, while the price dips slightly to craft the handle. Notably, the handle must be smaller than the cup and should exhibit a minor downward trend within the trading range. It's imperative that the handle doesn't dip below one-third of the cup's depth.
Strategy and Execution
Now, how can you effectively trade this compelling pattern? The strategy involves positioning a limit buy order just above the upper resistance of the cup and handle. Simultaneously, set a stop-loss order slightly below the handle's support. This calculated approach ensures that your buy order triggers only when the price breaks through the upper resistance level. This cautious measure shields you from premature entry due to false breakouts.
For traders seeking an extra layer of assurance, patiently waiting for the price to conclusively close above the upper trendline of the handle can provide a higher degree of certainty before initiating the trade.
🌟 Wishing you successful trades and profitable outcomes as you leverage insights from @Vestinda. Remember, patience and careful analysis are your allies on trading path.
Happy trading! 💰
Waiting for EURUSD weekly top to confirm before trading P1 moveWe are looking to capture a weekly P1 move on EURUSD after the top confirms on the weekly timeframe. We are following the smart money framework based on cycles and the volume spread analysis methodology to catpure the turning points in the market and to ride the big runners.
Is GBPUSD low at 1.2616 going to hold and become a W bottom(2)This is in reference to our previous idea of us entering on the 4H timeframe bottom confirmation towards a daily bottom and then a weekly bottom to confirm. It was entered based on price and volume spread analysis rationale. Let us check and see if the bottom confirms today according to the smart money framework. So far, the daily is going in our favour.:)
Refn Images as below.
Trading Exposed: The Hard-Hitting Truth Behind the 99% Who Fail
The picture above completely represents the real nature of trading:
We all came here because we all wanted easy money.
Being attracted by catchy ads, portraying the guys on lambos, wearing guccies and living fancy lives, we jump into the game with high hopes of doubling our tiny initial trading accounts.
However, the reality quickly kicks in and losing trades become the norm.
The first trading account will most likely be blown.
In just one single month, 40% of traders will be discouraged and abandon this game forever.
The rest will realize the fact that the things are not that simple as they seemed to be and decide to start learning.
The primary obstacle with trading education though is the fact that there are so much data out there , so many different materials, so many strategies and techniques to try, so the one feels completely lost .
And on that stage, one plays the roulette: in the pile of dirt, he must find the approach that works.
80% of the traders, who stay after the first month, will leave in the next 2 years. Unfortunately, the majority won't be able to find a valid strategy and will quit believing that the entire system is the scam.
After 5 years, the strongest will remain. The ones that are motivated and strong enough to face the failures.
With such an experience, the majority of the traders already realize how the things work. They usually stuck around breakeven and winning trades start covering the losing ones.
However, some minor, tiny component is still missing in their system. They should find something that prevents them from becoming consistently profitable.
Only 1% of those who came in this game will finally discover the way to make money. These individuals will build a solid strategy, an approach that will work and that will let them become independent.
That path is hard and long. And unfortunately, most of the people are not disciplined and motivated enough to keep going . Only the strongest ones will stay. I wish you to be the one with the iron discipline, titanic patience and nerves of steel.
Is BTCUSD low at 28477 going to hold and become a weekly bottom We are looking at a potential entry on daily seller bar high to be taken out for price to continue further upwards and go onto confirm the bottom on daily and then weekly according to our smart money framework indicator.
BTCUSD(Long)
E - 30035
SL - 28476
T - To be confirmed(TBC)
We will be tracking this move and updating the post as we go along on the charts and on video. Keep a look out for it traders.
Is GBPUSD low at 1.2616 going to hold and become a weekly bottomWe are looking at a potential entry on 4h bottom confirmation according to our smart money framework indicator and for it to go onto confirm the bottom on daily and then weekly.
E - 1.2711
SL - 1.2615
T - To be confirmed(TBC)
We will be tracking this move and updating the post as we go along on the charts and on video. Keep a look out for it traders.
Analyzing Confirmation Bias in Forex and Gold Trading
Psychological biases play a significant role in shaping trading decisions, and one such bias that demands scrutiny is confirmation bias.
Confirmation bias refers to the tendency of individuals to seek out, interpret, and emphasize information that supports their existing beliefs or preconceptions while ignoring contradictory evidence.
In the forex and gold trading , confirmation bias can have profound implications for traders, influencing their decision-making processes and potentially leading to suboptimal outcomes. This article aims to provide an in-depth understanding of confirmation bias and its impact on forex and gold trading, along with strategies to mitigate its negative effects.
Impact of Confirmation Bias on Forex Trading:
1. Selection and Interpretation of Information: Traders under the influence of confirmation bias tend to cherry-pick information that supports their existing beliefs and ignore or downplay evidence that contradicts them. This can result in an incomplete and biased assessment of the market's true conditions.
2. Overconfidence and Undue Risk-Taking: Confirmation bias can breed overconfidence, leading traders to overlook potential risks. Traders may take excessive risks by holding onto losing trades in the hope that the market will eventually validate their initial belief.
3. Missed Trading Opportunities: By focusing solely on information that confirms their existing beliefs, traders may overlook potential trading opportunities that could have been profitable. This bias restricts their ability to adapt to changing market conditions and identifying alternate trade setups.
Identifying Confirmation Bias:
1. Selective Information Gathering: Traders may exhibit a tendency to seek out sources of information that align with their existing beliefs while ignoring or avoiding contradictory viewpoints.
2. Narrow Framing: Traders might frame and interpret market information in ways that support their pre-existing assumptions, inadvertently excluding alternative perspectives.
3. Dismissing Contradictory Evidence: When presented with evidence that contradicts their beliefs, traders may either reject it outright or rationalize why it is irrelevant or unreliable.
Overcoming Confirmation Bias:
1. Seek Diverse Perspectives: Encourage a broad range of viewpoints by actively seeking out perspectives that challenge your existing beliefs. Engage in discussions with other traders, join forums, or seek professional opinions to diversify your understanding.
2. Consistent Record-Keeping: Maintain a trading journal that accurately documents your trades, rationale, and outcomes. Regularly review this journal to identify any patterns or biases that might be influencing your decision-making process.
Confirmation bias represents a significant cognitive obstacle for traders in forex and gold trading. Understanding its nature and recognizing its impact are crucial steps towards minimizing its negative effects. By adopting strategies focused on self-awareness, diversification, and collaboration, traders can enhance their decision-making processes and improve their overall profitability while navigating the complexities of the forex and gold markets.
Hey traders, let me know what subject do you want to dive in in the next post?
Learn The 5 Possible Outcomes Of Your Trades
Hey traders,
Depending on your actions, you can get 5 completely different results
taking just one single trade.
1️⃣The first outcome is a small win.
By a small win, I mean a winning trade producing up to 2.5% account growth.
2️⃣The opposite situation leads to a small loss.
To me, a small loss is a losing trade producing up to -1% account decline.
3️⃣Occasionally once the price starts moving in the predicted direction, one can protect his trading position moving his stop to entry and making a position risk-free.
Being stopped out such a trade produces 0% profit. The level where the position is closed is called a breakeven point.
4️⃣If one perfectly predicts a future direction of the market and opens a trading position accordingly, occasionally, a huge profit can be made.
5️⃣Being wrong in the predictions, however, one can adjust and trail a stop loss not letting himself be stopped out. Such behavior may lead to a substantial loss or even a margin call.
❗️Learning how to trade, I strongly recommend you eliminate the 5th outcome. Managing not to lose more than 1% of your account will substantially improve your trading.
Let me know, traders, what do you want to learn in the next educational post?
EURAUD - Strong support levelEURAUD has reached significant support, which is the same as Fibonacci level 50-60, so I expect a bounce up to the descending trendline and if it breaks it could target higher resistance levels. If the support breaks, the nearest support level may be the target.
Daily chart:
Good trading!
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Improve Your Trading | The Ultimate CHECKLIST For Your Trades
If you are looking for a way to increase the accuracy of your trades, I prepared for you a simple yet powerful checklist that you can apply to validate your trades.
✔️ - The trades fit my trading plan
When you are planning to open a trade, make sure that it is strictly based on your rules and your entry reasons match your trading plan.
For example, imagine you found some good reasons to buy USDJPY pair, and you decide to open a long trade. However, checking your trading plan, you have an important rule there - the market should strictly lie on a key level.
The current market conditions do not fit your trading plan, so you skip that trade.
✔️ - The trade is in the direction with the trend
That condition is mainly addressed to the newbie traders.
Trading against the trend is much more complicated and riskier than trend-following trading, for that reason, I always recommend my students sticking with the trend.
Even though USDCHF formed a cute double bottom pattern after a strong bearish trend, and it is appealing to buy the oversold market, it is better to skip that trade because it is the position against the current trend.
✔️ - The trade has stop loss and target level
Know in advance where will be your goal for the trade and where you will close the position in a loss.
If you think that it is a good idea to buy gold now, but you have no clue how far it will go and where can be the target, do not take such a trade.
You should know your tp/sl before you open the trade.
✔️ - The trade has a good risk to reward ratio
Planning the trade, your potential reward should outweigh the potential risks. And of course, there are always the speculations about the optimal risk to reward ration, however, try to have at least 1.3 R/R ratio.
Planning a long trade on EURNZD with a safe stop loss being below the current support and target - the local high, you can see that you get a negative r/r ratio, meaning that the potential risk is bigger than the potential reward. Such a trade is better to skip.
✔️ - I am ok with losing this trade if the market goes against me
Remember that even the best trading setups may occasionally fail. You should always be prepared for losses, and always keep in mind that 100% winning setups do not exist.
If you are not ready to lose, do not even open the position then.
✔️ - There are no important news events ahead
That rule is again primarily addressed to newbies because ahead and during the important news releases we have sudden volatility spikes.
Planning the trade, check the economic calendar, filtering top important news.
If important fundamentals are expected in the coming hours, it's better to wait until the news release first.
Taking a long trade on Gold, you should check the fundamentals first. Only after you confirm, that there are no fundamentals coming soon, you can open the position.
What I like about that checklist is that it is very simple, but you can use it whether you are a complete newbie or an experienced trader.
Try it and let me know if it helps you to improve your trading performance.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
THIS IS THE REASON YOUR STRATEGY DOESN'T WORKThe title is brash, I know. But before you click away, answer these two questions:
1) How many strategies have you tried?
2) How many strategies have you backtested through several years and thousands of trades?
If you have tried more strategies than you've backtested rigorously, then stick around because that's probably the reason why you're losing money.
Imagine this. Florence is a novice trader. He's seen the thousands of dollars in profit a kid 10 years younger than him can generate. He's seen the kid flexing his Lambo on Instagram. The kid mentions RSI a few times, so Florence assumes the RSI indicator is the secret to insane profits. Florence is chomping at the bits and loads up a fresh Webull account with $3,000. Every time the RSI is above 70 on a stock, he shorts that stock.
Lo and behold, after 5 trades, Florence's account now sits at $2,300. He concludes the indicator does not work.
Florence perseveres and is determined to find the secret strategy to quick profits. He scraps the RSI and studies "support and resistance" trading from a few youtube mentors. He reloads his Webull account back up to $3,000. With a refreshed vision, he shorts anytime a stock is at resistance and longs anytime a stock hits support. Sadly, after 10 trades, his account is down again, this time to $2,600.
Florence is flabbergasted.
The story goes on. He attempts implementing strategy after strategy and continues to lose money. Unfortunately, many of us are Florence. We did what he did. We got into the game without a blueprint or game plan.
And this is why my title is brashly stated, "If you don't read this you are going to lose money," because it's true. If you resemble Florence even in the slightest, basing the success of your trading strategy on a handful of trades, then how do you expect to know what strategy is actually successful?
I don't blame you for approaching trading like Florence. In today's age, we are seeing the market oversaturated with traders and trading coaches, or even worse, "trading influencers". As with any influx of the masses, we are going to get the scumbags trying to get you to buy their image and product by falsifying the simplicity and ease of trading.
If you are jumping between strategies without quantifying its success and failure rates over thousands of scenarios, then stop trading right now because you are going to continue losing money. Find a backtesting service or at the least log every single trade you take. Whatever it is, slow down and find proof of failure before declaring failure. I don't want you to fall into a never-ending hole of searching for the "right" indicator/strategy. The truth is, most of the strategies you've thrown away probably work and you don't even know it.