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Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 17th, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 17th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, as investors digest comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and assess their implications on the timing of potential rate cuts. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5091, 5082 (major), 5076, 5068 (major) Major Supports: 5046-51 (major), 5038 (major), 4996-5000 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5097 (major), 5108 (major), 5115, 5126-29 (major), 5155 (major) Major Resistances: 5171 (major), 5188-90 (major), 5225-30 (major), 5280-83 (major) Trading Strategy Monitoring Fed Commentary: Stay updated on further statements from Federal Reserve officials as they will influence market direction. Range-Bound Trading: The 5082-5115 zone remains a choppy range. Focus on failed breakdowns within this zone, or holding position runners. Long Opportunities: Look for bids at 5091 (after multiple successful tests), reclaims of 5082, or failed breakdowns at 5076. Knife-catch protocol applies for any deeper longs, particularly at 5046-51. Short Opportunities: Consider shorts if backtesting breakdown zones like 5126-29, 5155, or 5171. Prioritize a failure of 5082 on the short side. Profit-Taking: On shorts, consider taking profits entirely at major levels, especially given ES's tendency to short squeeze. Bull Case Reclaims are Key: Bulls need to reclaim breakdown zones, starting with 5126-29, then 5171 to signal a potential short-term bottom. Holding Support: A sustained hold of 5082 could lead to a bounce and backtests of the resistances listed above. Adding on Strength: Breaks above 5108 after acceptance suggest potential for more upside. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: Bears maintain short-term control until bulls can reclaim key levels discussed above. A failure of 5082 is a warning, with shorts below 5068 targeting 5046-51 (where runners would likely be exited). As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first. News: Top Stories for April 17th, 2024 Federal Reserve Focus Jerome Powell's comments emphasize that inflation remains above the Fed's target, hinting at a delay in interest rate cuts. Investor expectations for rate cuts have been adjusted, with a maximum of three cuts now anticipated, starting in June at the earliest. Market Performance & Sectors S&P 500 hits new all-time highs but experiences volatility following Federal Reserve commentary. Technology stocks, especially those in the AI sector, continue to outperform. Communication services and energy sectors receive a high percentage of analyst buy ratings. Earnings & Corporate News Big banks kick off the earnings season, providing insights into the financial sector's health. United Airlines faces aircraft delivery delays and adjusts its strategy. International Economic & Monetary Policies President Biden's proposed tariffs on Chinese steel aim to protect domestic industry. ECB plans for near-term rate cuts raise questions about the European economic outlook. Additional Market Updates Cryptocurrency market dynamics, including Bitcoin halving cycles. Geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran and their potential economic implications. Chinese economic growth. Housing market trends and government tax policies in Canada. Reminder: The market is reacting to Federal Reserve commentary. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
Short-term DXY Analysis: Navigating a Diamond Bottom 📈💎Short-term DXY Analysis: Navigating a Diamond Bottom 📈💎 The US Dollar Index (DXY) is a critical indicator for currency traders, reflecting the strength of the USD against a basket of major currencies. As of mid-April 2024, here's a concise analysis based on the current market scenario, recent technical patterns observed, and economic events: Diamond Bottom Formation 💠 The DXY chart suggests the formation of a 'diamond bottom,' typically a bullish reversal pattern that occurs after a price drop. This pattern suggests potential for a reversal of the preceding downtrend, indicating that buyers might be gaining ground. Current Economic Backdrop 🌐 With geopolitical tensions and hawkish tones from central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, there is a noted increase in the DXY. Hawkishness from the Fed Chair Powell indicates that rate cuts may not be imminent, reinforcing the USD’s strength. Technical Levels to Watch 🧐 Resistance Levels: The DXY faces immediate resistance at the 105.38/63 zone. A decisive break above could push it towards 106.57, with 107.17/20 as the next target for bulls. Support Levels: Initial support lies at the lower parallel/78.6% retracement of the yearly range at 104.53, followed by 104.23. A break below these levels could lead to a correction towards 103.47/49. Market Sentiment 📊 Market sentiment shows mixed positions among traders in commodities like gold and currencies like EUR/USD, with many investors likely leaning towards safer assets amid uncertainty. Possible Triggers 🔔 Central Bank Policies: USD bulls are currently facing headwinds from the Fed's stance and upcoming rate decisions. Global Market Dynamics: Rising geopolitical tensions and market volatility could increase the allure of the USD as a safe-haven asset. Conclusion: USD's Path Ahead In the short term, the DXY's outlook hinges on whether support levels hold post-FOMC decisions and broader market sentiment. If geopolitical situations exacerbate or central banks adopt more hawkish policies, the DXY could see further upside. Conversely, a break below key support levels could signal a shift in trend. The situation calls for vigilant monitoring of upcoming economic releases and central bank activities. 🔍 Please Note: This analysis does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research or consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. #MarketAnalysis #TradingView #TechnicalAnalysis #DXY #USDDominance #Forex #Commodities #Gold #SafeHaven #EconomicIndicators #InterestRates #FederalReserve #Inflation #CurrencyTrading #Investing #StockMarket #Bonds #ETFs #Cryptocurrency #BearMarket #BullMarket #PriceAction #ChartPatterns #DiamondBottom #MarketSentiment
TVC:DXYLong
by Shibunacci
Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 16th, 2024Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 16th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with geopolitical headlines and market volatility remaining dominant factors. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5102-05 (major), 5092 (major), 5079 Major Supports: 5067 (major), 5050-52 (major), 5039 (major), 5000 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5115, 5126 (major), 5136-39 (major), 5163-67 (major). Major Resistances: 5178-80 (major), 5195, 5205-07 (major), 5222 (major) Trading Strategy Geopolitical Risk: Continue to monitor headlines related to the Iran/Israel situation for potential market impacts. Adaptability: Be prepared for rapid changes in market direction and prioritize risk management. Long Opportunities: Focus on potential longs above 5102-05 after failed breakdowns at 5092. Consider a test and reclaim of 5115 for an entry if the move is direct. Knife-catch protocol applies for longs at 5048-52 if those are reached. Short Opportunities: Look for backtests of breakdown levels. 5136-39 and 5163-67 are key areas for potential shorts. Profit-Taking: On shorts, consider taking profits entirely at major levels, especially given ES's tendency to short squeeze. Bull Case Reclaims are Key: Bulls need to reclaim breakdown zones, starting with 5136, then 5163-67 to set a potential bottom. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: Bears maintain control until bulls can reclaim key levels discussed above. A failure of 5092 triggers the next downside leg. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting at 5088, targeting 5052 for complete profit-taking, or level-to-level profit-takes on the way. News: Top Stories for April 16th, 2024 Geopolitical Crisis: The escalating tensions between Iran and Israel continue to dominate headlines and drive market uncertainty. Economic Outlook IMF World Economic Outlook: Projections for slower global growth with inflation expected to decrease. US Labor Market: Focus on the impact of an aging workforce and the potential counter to early retirement trends. Inflation & Fed Rates CPI report signals persistent inflation, raising concerns about delayed Fed rate cuts. Treasury yields react to inflation data. Corporate & Market News Tesla faces skepticism about self-driving capabilities and a new round of layoffs. Market performance analysis: Tech stocks lead gains, bond market reacts to rate concerns. Real estate market sends mixed signals across different geographies. Investment Outlooks Financial institutions provide a range of outlook reports with varying predictions. Cryptocurrency: Ether and Bitcoin ETFs perform well, prominent investors weigh in. Reminder: The geopolitical situation remains a major wildcard. Be cautious, prioritize risk management, and be prepared to adjust your trading strategy quickly.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Short
by spytradingpro