USDJPY: bounce off support up to structureAfter the severe appreciation of the YEN we are likely to see it bounce back, especially given that there is a level of support in the form of a falling wedge.
I think that it is likely to bounce up to the structural level of resistance as indicated by the horizontal black line.
I see no fundamental reason for a prolonged period of USD strengthening against the YEN.
Tramline
Crude oil channel with good structureCrude oil has hit the resistance of a channel at a point where the market has previously met structural resistance.
Alberta fire has been completely priced in now and caused a quite unnecessary rally in prices which is over. There is fundamentally room for a strong move down in the coming days.
Year-end gold prediction: $970-$1030Technicals
This very strong trendline has been lasting for gold for some time now, and I don't expect it to stop, and it has just been touched, so this looks like a very good place to get in with a short position if you agree with this outlook (many will disagree!).
Disadvantages
The US economic data is currently not bad, but not great, and consumer spending most certainly isn't great. This suggests that the Fed may not reach, or get much closer to, their inflation target. This could result in backtracks on interest rates which will ultimately result in the price of gold increasing. In addition to this, the markets are pricing in a 13% chance of negative interest rates by 2017!
Advantages
Despite consumer spending data, I think that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates for the duration of the year. This is because labour statistics remain strong, and the US economy isn't in a poor enough state, in my opinion, for the Fed to halt their rate path.
I have tagged an alternative opinion from someone else below.
Hoast of indications for a potential rise in Diageo.Despite the recent rally in the FTSE 100, Diageo has lagged the market. However, potential buyers may come in around 1757 as this is:
1 -the base of the tram line I have drawn in. Tramlines offer great low risk entries and you can often anticipate where the price will bounce by locating a trend line and then drawing a parallel one through the lowest low like I have here around 1700.
2 - the 1757 area has been a level of support in the past-see olive circles
3 - the 1757 area completes an A-B-C corrective wave where A and BC are equal in length
4 - the Stochastics are oversold and showing a little divergence
Target of 1950-2000 depending on market structure up to this point.
Stop at 1720 for a low risk trade.
This is just an opinion, not a trading tip. Lets see what happens!