Watch me make $125 liveafter a brutal night in the markets looking to recoup from the losses I took and regain my momentum before we close the trading week tomorrow.
Community ideas
BTC POTENTIAL BULLS TRAP IN DEVELOPMENTI am inspecting the 4 hour candle in comparison to the daily chart on BTC and it seem we have all the characteristics of a bulls trap on the chart. If the next 4 hours candle does not close bullish, it will confirm a bulls trap and price will likely pullback into the triangle. So be cautious trading at this resistance level.
Bull Trap Chart Characteristics
Look for:
A strong bullish candle that breaks above recent highs or resistance.
Volume spike on the breakout — signs that traders are buying.
Followed by a sharp bearish candle (like a shooting star, bearish engulfing, or long wick).
Price falls back below resistance, turning the breakout into a fakeout.
Cheers !!
Gold setup: ascending triangle and Trump’s debt bombGold just formed an ascending triangle, and a breakout could send it $300 higher. In this video, we analyse the new pattern, the key breakout level, and why Trump’s new tax bill and Powell’s potential replacement could spark a major move. Will fundamentals match the technicals? Watch to find out.
EURUSD Sell analysis/ideaThis analysis is based on the 4-hour timeframe and executed using reversal trading and trend formation. complete explanation in the video!
End of Week analysis (USDJPY)Sorry for the late video but we are looking good for another continuation day. we have some strong bullish momentum now to tap into that untapped daily wick. from there we will see some strong resistance.
Happy trading everyone hope everyone had a great week.
July 4 GOLD FIREWORKS!!!Gold bout to POP!!!! and it could be seriously huge! Im just patiently waiting for a area of entry. I have never traded a July 4th Holiday with this much clarity on what I see so this could get interesting.
Top fundamentals that will shape the S&P 500 this summer 2025The summer of 2025 is characterized by a combination of macroeconomic and microeconomic factors that will shape the trajectory of the US equity market. While the S&P 500 is trading close to its all-time highs and at a valuation comparable to that at the end of 2021, the strength of the upward momentum will depend on the conjunction of several key variables. Understanding these fundamentals is crucial to grasping the potential and risks awaiting investors over the coming months.
1) The trade war and economic diplomacy, the main source of uncertainty
The trade issue remains the most unpredictable at the start of the summer. The July 9 deadline for the conclusion or failure of tariff negotiations is crystallizing tensions between the United States and its main partners. The prospect of a new wave of tariffs could have a direct impact on production costs, inflation and business confidence. Trade diplomacy is thus the variable most likely to provoke volatility jolts and challenge positive earnings growth expectations. If trade agreements are signed, then this will help to sustain the S&P 500's uptrend.
2) US fiscal policy: the “One Big, Beautiful Bill”
The Trump administration's major tax bill is another hotspot. This piece of legislation calls for an extension of the tax cuts initiated in 2017 and a dramatic increase in the public debt ceiling, to the tune of $5,000 billion. While these measures potentially support consumption and private investment, their medium-term impact on public finances is uncertain. The real issue for the equity market is to assess whether these decisions will lead to a surge in long-term US bond yields. A slippage in US Treasury yields would increase corporate financing costs and undermine currently high valuation multiples. Conversely, if yields remain contained, the equity market's upward momentum could continue.
3) Inflation and the Fed's monetary policy: a delicate balance
The trajectory of inflation, in particular that of the PCE index, will be a major determinant. US inflation is currently slightly below the Fed's target. Several components, notably the services sector, which accounts for almost two-thirds of the PCE basket, are proving relatively stable. Inflationary risks are more likely to come from commodities, particularly if trade tensions reignite. Oil, which accounts for around 11% of the PCE basket, is currently showing no major warning signs, benefiting from a geopolitical calm. Real estate and healthcare are also showing reassuring indicators. Against this backdrop, the Federal Reserve is adopting a cautious stance: while several major Western central banks are moving towards a neutral rate, the Fed is stalling and conditioning its monetary pivot on visibility regarding tariffs and corporate behavior.
The timing of rate cuts is one of the biggest sticking points. According to recent signals, the first rate cut could take place as early as September. However, influential members of the FOMC, appointed by the Trump administration, are arguing for earlier easing. The political pressure is strong: Trump is calling for immediate cuts, but Chairman Powell remains in control of the agenda, taking care to preserve a consensus within the committee.
4) The job market and the likelihood of a recession
The US employment situation is an advanced barometer of the economic cycle. Weekly jobless claims and the aggregate unemployment rate are closely monitored. Historically, a significant rise in unemployment signals that the economic slowdown is already underway. For the time being, the labor market is proving resilient, but the slightest deterioration could alter investors' central scenario and reinforce recessionary expectations. This risk is one of the potential dampeners to the prevailing optimism, unless it were to accelerate the timetable for resuming the cut in the federal funds rate.
5) Second-quarter results and earnings outlook
The second-quarter earnings season is of particular importance. US companies must demonstrate their ability to deliver earnings growth in line with forecasts, even as valuation multiples remain stretched. Maintaining high price levels on the S&P 500 assumes robust earnings growth and confident guidance from management. Failing this, the risk of a correction would be high, especially as the market has already incorporated many positive factors. The weakness of the US dollar and the price of oil, as well as the current momentum in AI, could hold out some pleasant surprises for second-quarter results.
6) Geopolitics and oil, potential sources of volatility
Finally, global geopolitics is a second-order variable, but one that could suddenly become a priority. A rapid deterioration in the international situation, particularly in the Middle East or the China Sea, could affect trade flows and oil prices, fuelling renewed inflation and financial volatility.
Conclusion :
The summer of 2025 promises to be a period of strategic transition for the US equity market. Between trade diplomacy, fiscal policy, inflation, the trajectory of interest rates and earnings momentum, investors will have to deal with an accumulation of uncertain factors. If these uncertainties gradually dissipate, the uptrend could continue. Conversely, the combination of a geopolitical shock, a rebound in inflation and a political stalemate over the federal budget would have the potential to weaken the current rally.
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Debugging Pine Script with log.info()log.info() is one of the most powerful tools in Pine Script that no one knows about. Whenever you code, you want to be able to debug, or find out why something isn’t working. The log.info() command will help you do that. Without it, creating more complex Pine Scripts becomes exponentially more difficult.
The first thing to note is that log.info() only displays strings. So, if you have a variable that is not a string, you must turn it into a string in order for log.info() to work. The way you do that is with the str.tostring() command. And remember, it's all lower case! You can throw in any numeric value (float, int, timestamp) into str.string() and it should work.
Next, in order to make your output intelligible, you may want to identify whatever value you are logging. For example, if an RSI value is 50, you don’t want a bunch of lines that just say “50”. You may want it to say “RSI = 50”.
To do that, you’ll have to use the concatenation operator. For example, if you have a variable called “rsi”, and its value is 50, then you would use the “+” concatenation symbol.
EXAMPLE 1
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
//@version=6
indicator("log.info()")
rsi = ta.rsi(close,14)
log.info(“RSI= ” + str.tostring(rsi))
Example Output =>
RSI= 50
Here, we use double quotes to create a string that contains the name of the variable, in this case “RSI = “, then we concatenate it with a stringified version of the variable, rsi.
Now that you know how to write a log, where do you view them? There isn’t a lot of documentation on it, and the link is not conveniently located.
Open up the “Pine Editor” tab at the bottom of any chart view, and you’ll see a “3 dot” button at the top right of the pane. Click that, and right above the “Help” menu item you’ll see “Pine logs”. Clicking that will open that to open a pane on the right of your browser - replacing whatever was in the right pane area before. This is where your log output will show up.
But, because you’re dealing with time series data, using the log.info() command without some type of condition will give you a fast moving stream of numbers that will be difficult to interpret. So, you may only want the output to show up once per bar, or only under specific conditions.
To have the output show up only after all computations have completed, you’ll need to use the barState.islast command. Remember, barState is camelCase, but islast is not!
EXAMPLE 2
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//@version=6
indicator("log.info()")
rsi = ta.rsi(close,14)
if barState.islast
log.info("RSI=" + str.tostring(rsi))
plot(rsi)
However, this can be less than ideal, because you may want the value of the rsi variable on a particular bar, at a particular time, or under a specific chart condition. Let’s hit these one at a time.
In each of these cases, the built-in bar_index variable will come in handy. When debugging, I typically like to assign a variable “bix” to represent bar_index, and include it in the output.
So, if I want to see the rsi value when RSI crosses above 0.5, then I would have something like:
EXAMPLE 3
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//@version=6
indicator("log.info()")
rsi = ta.rsi(close,14)
bix = bar_index
rsiCrossedOver = ta.crossover(rsi,0.5)
if rsiCrossedOver
log.info("bix=" + str.tostring(bix) + " - RSI=" + str.tostring(rsi))
plot(rsi)
Example Output =>
bix=19964 - RSI=51.8449459867
bix=19972 - RSI=50.0975830828
bix=19983 - RSI=53.3529808079
bix=19985 - RSI=53.1595745146
bix=19999 - RSI=66.6466337654
bix=20001 - RSI=52.2191767466
Here, we see that the output only appears when the condition is met.
A useful thing to know is that if you want to limit the number of decimal places, then you would use the command str.tostring(rsi,”#.##”), which tells the interpreter that the format of the number should only be 2 decimal places. Or you could round the rsi variable with a command like rsi2 = math.round(rsi*100)/100 . In either case you’re output would look like:
bix=19964 - RSI=51.84
bix=19972 - RSI=50.1
bix=19983 - RSI=53.35
bix=19985 - RSI=53.16
bix=19999 - RSI=66.65
bix=20001 - RSI=52.22
This would decrease the amount of memory that’s being used to display your variable’s values, which can become a limitation for the log.info() command. It only allows 4096 characters per line, so when you get to trying to output arrays (which is another cool feature), you’ll have to keep that in mind.
Another thing to note is that log output is always preceded by a timestamp, but for the sake of brevity, I’m not including those in the output examples.
If you wanted to only output a value after the chart was fully loaded, that’s when barState.islast command comes in. Under this condition, only one line of output is created per tick update — AFTER the chart has finished loading. For example, if you only want to see what the the current bar_index and rsi values are, without filling up your log window with everything that happens before, then you could use the following code:
EXAMPLE 4
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//@version=6
indicator("log.info()")
rsi = ta.rsi(close,14)
bix = bar_index
if barstate.islast
log.info("bix=" + str.tostring(bix) + " - RSI=" + str.tostring(rsi))
Example Output =>
bix=20203 - RSI=53.1103309071
This value would keep updating after every new bar tick.
The log.info() command is a huge help in creating new scripts, however, it does have its limitations. As mentioned earlier, only 4096 characters are allowed per line. So, although you can use log.info() to output arrays, you have to be aware of how many characters that array will use.
The following code DOES NOT WORK! And, the only way you can find out why will be the red exclamation point next to the name of the indicator. That, and nothing will show up on the chart, or in the logs.
// CODE DOESN’T WORK
//@version=6
indicator("MW - log.info()")
var array rsi_arr = array.new()
rsi = ta.rsi(close,14)
bix = bar_index
rsiCrossedOver = ta.crossover(rsi,50)
if rsiCrossedOver
array.push(rsi_arr, rsi)
if barstate.islast
log.info("rsi_arr:" + str.tostring(rsi_arr))
log.info("bix=" + str.tostring(bix) + " - RSI=" + str.tostring(rsi))
plot(rsi)
// No code errors, but will not compile because too much is being written to the logs.
However, after putting some time restrictions in with the i_startTime and i_endTime user input variables, and creating a dateFilter variable to use in the conditions, I can limit the size of the final array. So, the following code does work.
EXAMPLE 5
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// CODE DOES WORK
//@version=6
indicator("MW - log.info()")
i_startTime = input.time(title="Start", defval=timestamp("01 Jan 2025 13:30 +0000"))
i_endTime = input.time(title="End", defval=timestamp("1 Jan 2099 19:30 +0000"))
var array rsi_arr = array.new()
dateFilter = time >= i_startTime and time <= i_endTime
rsi = ta.rsi(close,14)
bix = bar_index
rsiCrossedOver = ta.crossover(rsi,50) and dateFilter // <== The dateFilter condition keeps the array from getting too big
if rsiCrossedOver
array.push(rsi_arr, rsi)
if barstate.islast
log.info("rsi_arr:" + str.tostring(rsi_arr))
log.info("bix=" + str.tostring(bix) + " - RSI=" + str.tostring(rsi))
plot(rsi)
Example Output =>
rsi_arr:
bix=20210 - RSI=56.9030578034
Of course, if you restrict the decimal places by using the rounding the rsi value with something like rsiRounded = math.round(rsi * 100) / 100 , then you can further reduce the size of your array. In this case the output may look something like:
Example Output =>
rsi_arr:
bix=20210 - RSI=55.6947486019
This will give your code a little breathing room.
In a nutshell, I was coding for over a year trying to debug by pushing output to labels, tables, and using libraries that cluttered up my code. Once I was able to debug with log.info() it was a game changer. I was able to start building much more advanced scripts. Hopefully, this will help you on your journey as well.
Biggest What-Ifs in Stocks (or How Investors Live with Regret)You think you’ve got regrets because you didn’t buy Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA at $50 or sold Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA at $420? Join the club.
The stock market’s history is littered with “almost” trades, missed deals, and facepalm-worthy decisions that turned out to be trillion-dollar pivots.
This is the hall of fame for what didn’t happen — and what those stories teach us about how markets (and human nature) actually work. Call it a free masterclass in greed, fear, FOMO, and the priceless value of just sitting tight sometimes.
Take it easy today, grab your cold brew and read up on the biggest what-ifs in stock market history.
🍏 Ronald Wayne: The Patron Saint of “Oops”
Our first inductee needs no introduction. But let’s do it anyway. Ronald Wayne, the third Apple NASDAQ:AAPL co-founder, sold his 10% stake back in 1976 for the princely sum of $800. He wanted to avoid any debts if things went south. Sensible, right?
That $800 stake today would be worth more than $300 billion. That’s more than the GDP of Finland — and about 1.2 million new iPhones every single day for pretty much the rest of his life. Wayne has since said he doesn’t regret it. Which is probably the biggest lie he’s ever told.
🍿 Blockbuster’s Netflix “Pass”
In 2000, Netflix NASDAQ:NFLX was a DVD-by-mail startup with spotty profits. Reed Hastings, Netflix’s founder, knocked on Blockbuster’s door and offered to sell the whole thing for $50 million — about the price of a Hollywood production.
Blockbuster’s execs reportedly laughed him out of the room. “People will always want to drive to a store to rent a VHS,” they said, basically. Fast forward: Netflix is worth around $560 billion, and Blockbuster is down to one store that’s mostly a selfie museum for millennials who miss rewinding tapes.
💻 Microsoft’s Lifeline That Saved Apple
In 1997, Apple NASDAQ:AAPL was broke. Steve Jobs had returned but was days away from the company flat-lining for good. Enter Bill Gates.
Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT wrote Apple a $150 million check, partly to keep antitrust regulators off its back. Jobs even appeared on stage with Gates beaming in on a giant screen like Big Brother — a moment that made every Apple fan cringe.
But that deal saved Apple’s hide. The iMac was born. The iPod followed. Then the iPhone. That $150 million is now a rounding error on Apple’s $3 trillion valuation. Sometimes your greatest rival is also your best frenemy.
🔍 Google: The $750K “Meh”
Before “Google it” became a verb, Larry Page and Sergey Brin tried to sell their little search engine to Excite — the Yahoo-lite portal that dominated the ‘90s web. The price? $750,000.
Excite’s CEO said search “wasn’t that important” — one of the worst calls in tech history. Today, Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOGL is worth over $2.1 trillion and always flashing bright on the Stock Heatmap , and Excite is a footnote in a forgotten Web 1.0 graveyard.
The lesson? Never dismiss a side project just because it doesn’t fit the spreadsheet.
💸 Masayoshi Son’s $200 Billion Slip
SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son is known for his giant, risky bets . And in 2017, he made a pretty good one: his Vision Fund scooped up a 5% chunk of Nvidia stock worth about $4 billion. He called GPUs the backbone of the AI revolution. He was right.
But by 2019, SoftBank was under pressure to tidy up its books. So Son sold the whole position for a tidy short-term profit. That stake today would be worth nearly $200 billion, given Nvidia’s rocket-fuel AI rally .
“We can cry together,” CEO Jensen Huang told Masa Son at an AI Summit in Tokyo last year. Early doesn’t always mean patient. And being “kind of right” can be the most painful lesson of all.
📊 Berkshire Hathaway: A Textile Mill’s Rebirth
Think of Berkshire Hathaway NYSE:BRK.A now — a $1 trillion behemoth. Insurance, utilities, railroads, huge piles of Apple shares . But back when Warren Buffett bought it, Berkshire was a dying textile business in New England.
Buffett only bought control because he was annoyed at the CEO’s lowball tender offer. It turned into his permanent holding company. The textile side eventually went extinct — but the insurance side became the cash-printing machine Buffett used to buy everything else.
Sometimes your best trade starts with pure pettiness.
🚀 Tesla: The Short Sellers’ Pain Cave
Here’s a more recent tale. Tesla was not long ago the most shorted stock on Earth. Everyone from hedge funds to your uncle at Thanksgiving was betting on Elon’s dream to fail.
Every now and then, the short-sellers get slapped with billions of dollars in losses, because the stock shoots up out of nowhere. The most recent example? November 12, when those naysayers nursed $7 billion in wiped out cash . Bears have been torched so many times, they might as well switch sides and sell Tesla hoodies instead.
🌌 Yahoo’s Double Miss: Google and Facebook
If you think blowing one chance is bad, try blowing two. Yahoo turned down the chance to buy Google for less than a million bucks. Then years later, they offered $1 billion for Facebook (now META NASDAQ:META ) — but bungled the negotiations and tried to lower the price. Zuck said “nope.”
But back to Google, because the story didn’t end there. In 2002, Yahoo said it wanted to buy Google for $3 billion. Brin and Page said $5 billion and Yahoo said no. Then Microsoft was ready to pay $40 billion to acquire Yahoo in 2008. But Yahoo said no.
Today, Google, Microsoft, and Meta are trillion-dollar titans. Yahoo? Sold itself for $4.5 billion, mostly for its patents, in 2016 to Verizon. Talk about slipping on the same banana peel more than once.
🧃 Apple: The Splits that Keep Giving
Want a reason to love boring old “buy and hold”? Apple NASDAQ:AAPL has split its stock five times since its 1980 IPO. If you’d bought 100 shares back then, you’d now have over 56,000 shares, plus mountains of dividends.
Next time you want to swing trade every squiggle, remember: sometimes the slowest route is the sweetest.
📝 Regret: The Only Universal Asset Class
Every trader has a “coulda, shoulda, woulda.” It’s the cost of doing business in a market that only makes sense in hindsight. Even the pros — billionaires, boards, hedge funds — have stories that make yours look tame.
Ronald Wayne reminds you that selling too soon can cost you your own island. Masayoshi Son proves being right but impatient is still being wrong. Yahoo shows that “almost” is worth exactly zero on a balance sheet.
What these stories prove is that the market’s biggest edge isn’t necessarily timing, genius, or inside scoops — it’s discipline, resilience, and sometimes a stubborn refusal to touch the sell button.
🤗 Bonus Story: Ballmer Regrets Nothing
But not every story has to be a regret story. Just look at Steve Ballmer, Microsoft ‘s former CEO. Since the early 2000s, he’s been holding his 4% stake in the software maker and that’s now worth more than $130 billion. No regrets found.
👉 What’s Your “One That Got Away”?
Now your turn : What’s your personal what-if story? Which ticker haunts you in your sleep? Drop your best missed trade or worst sell in the comments — we promise to laugh with you, not at you. Probably. Stay sharp. Stay patient!
Valero Breaks the DowntrendValero Energy spent more than a year in a downtrend, but some traders may think conditions have changed.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the series of lower highs between April 2024 and May 2025. VLO pushed above that falling trendline last month and has remained there since. That may suggest its longer-term direction is turning higher.
Second is the price area between roughly $132 and $136. The oil refiner peaked there in March, April and May. But it made a low in the same zone last week and this week. Is old resistance becoming new support?
Third, prices have remained above the rising 21-day exponential moving average. They’re also above the 200-day simple moving average. Those patterns may be consistent with emerging bullishness in the short and long terms.
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Middle East War Whispers: Is Bitcoin About to Crash?The scent of conflict is once again in the air over the Middle East. Tensions are rising, and traders are starting to worry.
If war erupts once more in the region, will Bitcoin and the crypto market survive? Or should we prepare for a heavy drop?
In this analysis, we’ll explore realistic scenarios and tools that experienced traders use to protect themselves in moments like these.
Hello✌
Spend 3 minutes ⏰ reading this educational material.
🎯 Analytical Insight on Official Trump:
Official Trump continues to exhibit high sensitivity to political narratives and has recently entered a multi-leg correction phase amid escalating Middle East tensions 🌍. Based on current price structure and sentiment flow, a potential drawdown of approximately 30% appears likely, with a key downside target projected near the $6 region 📉.
Now , let's dive into the educational section,
📌 How Markets Have Reacted to Geopolitical Tension
Historically, during major geopolitical flare-ups, risk markets like crypto have shown heightened sensitivity. What matters most isn’t the exact nature of the conflict — it’s how the market interprets the situation. Price doesn’t move on truth; it moves on perception.
🔍 TradingView Tools to Navigate Crisis and Spot Potential Sell-Offs 📊
When fear dominates the market and uncertainty clouds every candle, TradingView’s built-in tools become essential for staying ahead. Let’s explore the most practical ones for moments like this:
Market Sentiment Indicators
Tools like the Crypto Fear & Greed Index combined with higher time-frame volume analysis can help you track the mood swings that drive market volatility.
Layered Watchlists
Create watchlists that compare major projects with volatile meme coins or micro-caps. Early exits often show up as disproportionate drops in smaller assets before the big ones move.
Smart Alerts Based on Price Behavior
Set up alerts not just for price levels, but for candle closes, trendline breaks, and sudden volume shifts. These help you act swiftly, without letting fear control you.
Cross-Market Correlation Tracking
Use TradingView’s Compare function to monitor Bitcoin’s correlation with assets like gold, oil, or the dollar index. Shifts in capital flow toward safe havens may signal a crypto downturn.
Heatmaps for Crowd Behavior
Heatmaps let you see real-time buying and selling intensity. During panic phases, expanding red zones on the map could indicate larger market fear and potential liquidation zones.
🎯 What Should You Do? Scenarios and Strategic Responses
When the headlines are hot but the charts unclear, neither blind holding nor panic selling helps. Let’s break down potential paths:
Scenario One: Sudden and Escalating Conflict
A quick escalation may trigger immediate sell pressure. Watch for key levels and volume patterns to protect or hedge open positions.
Scenario Two: Prolonged News-Driven Tension
This usually creates choppy, range-bound price action. Combining momentum indicators like RSI with moving averages can help filter out fake-outs.
Scenario Three: The Dangerous Silence
A flat, quiet market can hide a ticking bomb. Underlying sell pressure might build unnoticed. Combining macro news with multi-timeframe analysis is key here.
🧠 Psychology of Fear in Unstable Times
In unstable markets, emotion drives action. When fear spreads faster than facts, many traders get caught off guard. Relying solely on what your eyes see in price action can mislead you. Instead, look at alerts, volume shifts, sentiment data, and crowd reactions.
⛑️ Final Tip for Traders
During crisis rumors and uncertainty, the worst decisions often come from rushing or overreacting. If you don’t have a clear plan, stay out. Use the tools available, prepare for multiple outcomes, and remember — your capital is your power. Don’t gamble it on noise.
🧾 Final Thoughts
The market stands at a psychological and strategic crossroad. With Middle East tensions rising again, crypto traders must prepare, not panic. Use the depth of TradingView tools, plan for different outcomes, and react with logic — not fear.
In times of crisis, survival comes before profit.
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EURJPY is rising to 173 for a bearish and larger pattern.EURJPY is rising to 173 for a bearish and larger pattern.
Since the beginning of March 2025, EURJPY started an uptrend and is still rising in a clear way with no signs of reversal.
As long as the BOJ has no plans to change its monetary policy statement or make any significant interventions in Forex, then EURJPY can continue to rise higher.
There is a high possibility that Eurjpy will complete a major daily harmonic pattern near 173.00.
Given that EURJPY may be close to the all-time high zone, the reversal could also occur within the zone, but I think EURJPY may start a reversal between 173.00 and the higher level. We can look for sell signals there.
At the moment, EURJPY is rising and may rise to 173.00, although not in a clear way.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Bitcoin Fractal, increase to $116k Hi Everyone☕👋
BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Been such a long time since I posted. Today I'm looking at BTCUSDT, and I'm looking at the previous all time high cycle and what we were seeing (the pattern aka fractal).
Here's why we're likely going a little higher.
First correction of -32%
Followed by first peak, ATH
Correction, then the second peak and the REAL ath. Which is where we likely are:
Interesting to note that the previous time, the second ath was NOT THAT MUCH HIGHER. This should be considered to manage expectations in terms of how high we can go. Anything above +6% is a bonus.
How to Trade Double Tops & Bottoms in TradingViewLearn how to identify, validate, and trade double top and double bottom reversal patterns using TradingView's charting tools in this comprehensive tutorial from Optimus Futures. Understanding these classic chart formations can help you spot potential trend reversals and capitalize on contrarian trading opportunities in the futures markets.
What You'll Learn:
• Understanding contrarian vs. continuation trading strategies and when to use each approach
• The psychology behind buying low and selling high through reversal pattern trading
• How to identify double top and double bottom formations on any timeframe
• Key characteristics of valid double tops and bottoms, including volume confirmation
• Using TradingView's XABCD pattern tool to validate potential double top/bottom setups
• Real-world example analysis using crude oil futures charts
• Risk management techniques for trading reversal patterns
• How to calculate appropriate entry points, stop losses, and profit targets
• Setting up 1:1 risk-reward ratios for mathematical trading edge
• Understanding win rate requirements for profitable pattern trading
• How double bottom patterns work as the inverse of double top formations
This tutorial may benefit futures traders, swing traders, and technical analysts interested in contrarian trading strategies and reversal pattern recognition. The concepts covered could help you identify potential turning points in market trends and develop systematic approaches to trading these classic chart formations.
Visit Optimus Futures to learn more about trading futures with TradingView: optimusfutures.com/Platforms/TradingView.php
Disclaimer:
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please trade only with risk capital. We are not responsible for any third-party links, comments, or content shared on TradingView. Any opinions, links, or messages posted by users on TradingView do not represent our views or recommendations. Please exercise your own judgment and due diligence when engaging with any external content or user commentary.
This video represents the opinion of Optimus Futures and is intended for educational purposes only. Chart interpretations are presented solely to illustrate objective technical concepts and should not be viewed as predictive of future market behavior. In our opinion, charts are analytical tools—not forecasting instruments. Market conditions are constantly evolving, and all trading decisions should be made independently, with careful consideration of individual risk tolerance and financial objectives.
The market bias stays up, MJ stocks may be a buy here. The market continues to be biased up, and the target is likely the weekly B. MJ stocks are showing technical signs that a reversal may come. There may be other sectors similar as I think the summer bottom gamblers will start appearing now that everything else is at the highs. Gold looks like it will eventually go lower. Nat gas lost support and is likely to go lower. USOIL is bear flagging.
NATURAL GAS - Who can Predict this wild beast?Natural gas got demolished today, down over 8%.
The one headline we saw hitting the tape that is having some partial influence:
"Vessel Arrives at LNG Canada to Load First Cargo, Strengthening Global Supply Outlook – LNG Recap"
Today, we did hedge our core long UNG position with a short dated $56 put on EQT.
We are already green on that trade and looking for $56 level to come into play.
Natural gas volatility sure trades in a world of its own which is why it is key to size accordingly.
GBPJPY: Bullish Impulse May Take Price To 205! 700+ Pips MoveGBPJPY is in steady bullish move in other words it is in impulse move; price has not yet exhausted and there is still extended bullish move to completed before bears takes control over. Please use accurate risk management while trading and do your own analysis.
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Stocks Are Crushing It at Record Highs. What’s Behind the Rally?Happy record highs, everyone — confetti, champagne, and yet another all-time high. The Nasdaq NASDAQ:IXIC and the S&P 500 SP:SPX just did it again — notched fresh closing records that have traders flexing their P&Ls like it’s 1999.
If you’ve been on the sidelines, you’re probably staring at the chart asking: How did we add trillions to market cap while my grocery bill still looks like a high-yield bond payment?
Good question. Because these days, stocks are behaving like they live on a separate planet from the actual economy (looking at you, Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA ).
Let’s pop the hood and see what’s revving this record-breaking machine — and what potholes might lurk ahead.
🤫 Nasdaq: The Comeback Kid of 2025
Take the Nasdaq Composite NASDAQ:IXIC — your favorite tech playground — up a mind-boggling 32% since the April lows . One-third of its total value was minted in three months — as much as $7 trillion added in.
What happened? Well, start with the obvious: the Magnificent Seven are doing the heavy lifting again. Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA , Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT , Apple NASDAQ:AAPL , Amazon NASDAQ:AMZN , Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOGL , Meta NASDAQ:META , Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA — they’re the gym rats of this rally.
But here’s the kicker: while the headlines are all “index record highs,” the Mag 7 as a whole are actually down slightly for the year. The hero’s cape belongs mostly to a few standouts: Meta, up 21% this year. Microsoft, up 17%. And Nvidia? Not bad: up a whopping 65% since the April swoon.
When the generals lead, the army follows — at least until they don’t?
🤖 S&P 500: Powered by 7, Dragged by 493
The broad-based S&P 500 also clocked a new record close at 6,173.07 . Everyone loves to toast a new all-time high, but here’s your buzzkill: the “500” in S&P 500 is a bit of a myth these days.
The Magnificent Seven alone account for more than 30% of the index’s total weight. Last year, this elite club rose 57% while the other 493 stocks crawled up just 13%. Strip out the hyper-scalers, and you’ll find most stocks are still limping along, wrestling with tepid growth and stubborn inflation.
So yes — the S&P 500 is soaring. But the S&P 493? Not partying at the same rooftop bar.
💼 Conflicting Data: This Economy Ain’t It (Yet)
Here’s where it gets spicy: GDP actually shrank last quarter — down 0.5% year over year. Inflation is still running hot with May’s PCE figure at 2.7% (the Fed’s target is 2%).
Fed boss Jay Powell and the central bank squad are trying to thread the world’s tiniest policy needle: cut rates enough to juice the economy, but not so much that they stoke a fresh inflation flare-up.
Meanwhile, job numbers are a mixed bag , and corporate revenue hasn’t been setting new records to match those ceiling-high stock valuations.
In short, the disconnect between equity prices and economic reality is growing wider than the spread on your favorite meme coin during an illiquid Sunday afternoon.
👨🏻💻 Tariffs, Tweets, and the Trump Factor
And who could forget the wildcard factor? Trump’s new tariffs. The “reciprocal tariffs,” as he likes to pitch them. One day he’s threatening to slap 50% duties on everything from French wine to German cars. The next, he’s cozying up for “productive” chats with Brussels.
This policy whiplash makes supply chains sweat, but so far, equity traders are shrugging it off — and even cheering. Why? Because in Trump’s world, chaos means central banks might cut rates to cushion the blow. And nothing says “rocket fuel” for risk assets like lower borrowing costs.
Add to that the weird paradox that tariffs — while inflationary in the short run — can also weaken the dollar if the Fed turns dovish. A weaker greenback means US tech giants look cheaper to global investors. So… up we go.
🏛️ The Great Fed Cut Watch
Speaking of cuts: the Fed’s next meeting is in late July, and Wall Street is holding its breath. Rate cuts mean cheaper money — which often means traders load up on risk.
The market is currently pricing in a 90% chance of a cut in September (and an 80% chance of a hold in July). Meanwhile, gold OANDA:XAUUSD — the non-yielding safe haven — is selling off while traders are flocking toward the risk-end of the boat, leaving the safe-haven corner gathering dust.
👀 What’s Next? The Inevitable Hand-Wringing
So — should you pop champagne? Depends.
If you’re a trend follower, record highs are record highs. Momentum is your friend. But if you’re a value purist, these multiples probably make your eye twitch.
Big question: when does this all get too frothy? Will the next earnings season justify these valuations? Markets are forward-looking anyway — even if big tech’s revenue flops, that doesn’t mean money will flow out of the market cap.
After all, we’re halfway through the year and that means it’s time to pop open the Earnings calendar for those spring reports.
Any dip right now may very well be seen as an opportunity to swoop in at a lower price, not as something that indicates there’s something fundamentally wrong with the business.
🫶🏻 The Takeaway: Celebrate, but Stay Focused
The rally is real. The headlines are dazzling. But the same lessons apply: trends don’t last forever, risk doesn’t disappear just because the chart is green, and the Magnificent Seven won’t carry the world on their backs indefinitely.
So have your stop losses placed right, your position sizes sensible , and your eyes on the macro backdrop. Because record highs are fun, but holding the bag isn’t.
Off to you : Are you riding this rocket or waiting for the next dip? Drop your take below — are we so back, or about to crack?
One Last Push Before It’s Over?Total Market Cap CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL CRYPTOCAP:TOTALES
From a price action perspective, the structure looks very constructive:
• In May 2021, a swing high was formed, which later became a key resistance level.
• In November 2021, we saw a fakeout, confirming the significance of the level.
• Between March and June 2024, there was a clear rejection from this resistance.
• Eventually, price broke through the level and completed a clean retest from above — textbook move.
The bullish structure remains intact and has been reaffirmed once again. With that in mind, a new ATH on Total Market Cap feels like just a matter of time. The 3.73T+ level is likely to be taken out soon.
From a volume distribution perspective, the market is currently trading near the upper VWAP band — between +1σ and +2σ, yet shows no signs of overheating. Historically, the extreme zone is marked by +3σ, which currently sits around $4.6 trillion.
Wave Structure
The impulsive wave that began in 2022 appears to be nearing its completion. Given the price action and internal structure, it is highly likely that the final fifth wave is forming as an ending diagonal.
The $4.6–5 trillion zone stands out as a potential market top.
Volume behavior is key here:
We’re seeing notable vertical volume spikes in the current phase.
Horizontal volume (volume profile) reveals a strong cluster and point of control (POC) — a clear sign of distribution.
This pattern often signals the final stage of a bull cycle and precedes a reversal. The question is when, not if.
That said, the trend remains bullish for now. Notably, we don't yet observe strong RSI divergences on major timeframes, which supports the case for a continued push higher in the short term.
FX quarter end : a high-probability recurring patternAs we approach the end of June, a well-known phenomenon among FX traders is once again coming into focus: when currencies have diverged significantly over the course of a month or quarter, we often see a technical correction into the final trading session, with partial pullbacks in the pairs that had previously moved the most.
This end-of-month or quarter pattern is not random. It is the predictable result of recurring institutional flows. Recently, the US dollar has notably weakened against most major currencies. As a result, we could anticipate a modest bounce in the dollar to close out the month and start the new week, as various participants are likely to adjust their positions accordingly.
Performance of FX futures contracts from Sunday, June 1 to Friday, June 27:
Swiss Franc +3.71%
Euro +3.61%
British Pound +1.95%
New Zealand Dollar +1.58%
Australian Dollar +1.50%
Canadian Dollar +0.67%
Japanese Yen +0.16%
Performance of FX futures contracts from Tuesday, April 1 to Friday, June 27:
Swiss Franc +10.73%
Euro +8.40%
New Zealand Dollar +6.90%
British Pound +6.26%
Canadian Dollar +5.23%
Australian Dollar +4.80%
Japanese Yen +3.68%
These figures illustrate a broad-based decline in the dollar during June and over the entire second quarter. Historically, such imbalances open the door to late-stage adjustments, with currencies that have risen sharply often seeing modest technical pullbacks. This is a setup closely monitored by FX traders, who view it as a high-probability opportunity based on a pattern that is rare, but remarkably consistent.
FX rebalancing: mechanics and market players
At the heart of these adjustments lies one key concept: rebalancing. This is the process by which institutional players, pension funds, insurers, central banks, passive managers, bond funds, corporates adjust their FX exposures to stay in line with the targets defined in their mandates.
Every month, the value of their assets (equities, bonds, alternatives) and currency holdings fluctuate. If a currency appreciates sharply, its weight in the portfolio may become too high. Conversely, if a currency weakens, exposure might fall below target. Rebalancing involves buying or selling FX to return to those target allocations.
This process is recurring, predictable, and usually concentrated in a narrow window, the final hours of the trading month, just before the London 4pm fix. Quarter-ends tend to be even more pronounced, as many investors revisit long-term strategic allocations at that time.
Many of these adjustments are driven by systematic models using fixed thresholds, which adds to the consistency and timing of these flows.
Ideal setup: low volatility, high impact
June 2025 ends in a particularly calm environment: equity markets are stable or even rising, and the VIX is trading near its yearly lows, signs of a quiet and balanced market that favors more technical trading. This context is favorable for strategies aiming to take advantage of rebalancing effects, as in the absence of new announcements or unexpected events, these adjustments are likely to have a tangible impact on prices.
Conversely, in a more volatile market environment, such adjustments could be drowned out by larger flows (such as a flight to quality), thus having a reduced or even negligible impact.
FX options: another layer of flows
Another important factor on Monday, June 30: a large number of FX options expire at 10am New York (3pm London). These expiries cover several major pairs, with significant notional amounts concentrated near current spot levels.
According to what is currently being whispered on trading desk chat rooms, we expect the following large expiries:
EUR/USD: €3.0bn at 1.1650 (below spot)
USD/JPY: $1.6bn at 145.50 (above spot)
USD/CHF: $1.8bn at 0.8000 (above spot)
GBP/USD: £1.0bn at 1.3600 (below spot)
AUD/USD: A$1.1bn at 0.6425 (below spot)
When spot approaches these strikes, option holders or sellers may intervene to "pin" prices, based on their delta exposure. This behavior can amplify technical price movements in the hours before expiration.
When these heavy expirations align with month/quarter end rebalancing flows in a quiet, low-volatility market, it creates a strong potential cocktail for tactical moves, conducive to a dollar rebound into the fix.
How to trade the pattern effectively
Here’s a simplified roadmap to navigate this recurring pattern:
Identify monthly or quarterly extremes: look for the currencies that gained or lost the most over the period;
Assess the market environment: a low VIX, no major data or central bank events, meaningful trends, and significant options expiries are ideal conditions;
Use liquid and transparent instruments: Sep 2025 FX futures (standard, e-mini or micro) are currently the most suitable products for active positioning
Set realistic expectations: aim for a 0.5% to 1.0% pullback, not a full-blown trend reversal
Manage risk properly: as with any strategy, always use a stop-loss. This is quantitative trading, not fortune-telling. If the USD continues to weaken despite the setup, be ready to exit swiftly.
In short...
Quarter/month end FX rebalancing is one of the few market events where anticipated institutional flows can create repeatable, high-probability trading opportunities. These flows stem from real portfolio needs and systematic re-hedging, and are often amplified by option expiries and technical positioning.
This setup provides a great educational case study for any trader seeking to better understand hidden FX dynamics. There’s no secret indicator or crystal ball here, just a solid grasp of structural flows and timing.
From a personal standpoint, after over 20 years trading currencies, this strategy remains one of my favorites: simple, effective, and highly instructive. I encourage you to study it closely, and observe its behavior during upcoming month-end windows.
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When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: tradingview.com/cme/ .
This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
BTC - Consolidation, Manipulation & DistributionMarket Context
The current price action unfolds within the broader structure of a bullish leg that began after a sharp reversal near 97,000. This impulsive rally created a clear Fair Value Gap on the 4-hour chart—left behind as price surged upward with minimal resistance. Following this move, the market entered a consolidation phase, forming a range that has now broken to the upside. This kind of breakout often attracts breakout traders, but in this case, the context signals something more calculated.
Buy Side Liquidity Sweep Following Consolidation
The breakout above the consolidation range led directly into a Buy Side Liquidity Sweep, as price ran the highs just above the marked range. These highs acted as a magnet for liquidity—stop losses from short sellers and buy stops from breakout traders were likely pooled in that area. The quick rejection following this sweep suggests the move was not backed by genuine demand, but rather served the purpose of liquidity collection by larger players.
Manipulation and Distribution
This is a textbook example of manipulation into liquidity. Price was engineered to move upward into a zone of interest, taking out the Buy Side Liquidity before sharply reversing. The strong rejection signals distribution—institutions likely offloaded positions into the influx of late buyers. This kind of pattern often precedes a larger markdown, particularly when followed by lower timeframe bearish structure breaks.
Unfilled Fair Value Gap as a Draw
Beneath the price lies an unfilled Fair Value Gap, a zone of imbalance left behind by the earlier impulsive move. These areas often act as magnets for price, especially once liquidity objectives to the upside have been completed. Now that the sweep has occurred and distribution is underway, there is a strong probability that price will begin to seek rebalancing within this Gap. The area between 104,000 and 103,500 stands out as a high-probability target for the next leg down.
Execution Insight
If you're looking to enter short, it may be wise to wait for confirmation on a lower timeframe—such as a bearish break of structure or an internal Gap forming during the retracement. A 5-minute timeframe can often give early signs of rejection or supply stepping in. Being patient and allowing the market to reveal intent is crucial, especially after liquidity-driven moves like this.
Final Thoughts
Price doesn’t move randomly—it seeks liquidity and fills inefficiencies. This chart beautifully illustrates that logic, from engineered consolidation to a manipulative sweep, and now potentially toward rebalancing.
If you found this breakdown helpful, I’d really appreciate a like—it helps support the work and keeps this kind of content going. Let me know in the comments what you think, or if you’re seeing it differently. I'm always up for a good discussion.
PCEs & attacks on PowellWe are carefully monitoring the PCEs today, to see, "wins" this small battle in the rate-lowering war. Let's dig in.
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
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21D $BTC pattern to watchWanted to show a pattern I was looking at and analyzing the 21D (a fib number) and see the fib extensions match up on each breakout.
A tad confusing I know, but hope the visual helps.
Fibo
