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Figma Stock Goes Parabolic in Market Debut — Should You Buy?Figma stock NYSE:FIG more than tripled on IPO day. But that’s not thanks to the Figma guys — they had agreed to sell the company to Adobe NASDAQ:ADBE just two years ago. Figma stock NYSE:FIG made a spectacular entrance into public markets last week — and then some. Shares of the design software firm surged 250% in their debut Thursday and climbed another 5% Friday, pushing the company’s fully diluted valuation to about half the size of Adobe NASDAQ:ADBE , the company that once tried to acquire Figma for $20 billion before regulators shut it down. It’s a strong showing for the IPO market and a signal that investors are still willing to pay up for growth — even if the valuation raises more than a few eyebrows. 💸 $33 Becomes $118: Here’s What Happened Figma priced its IPO at $33 per share on Wednesday, above the already-raised target range of $30–$32. The stock opened at $85, hit highs around $120, and closed the day up 250% . It ended Friday at $122, giving the company a fully diluted valuation of roughly $70 billion. Quick stat: Figma pulled in $749 million in revenue last year. That means Figma’s price-to-sales ratio is sitting close to 94x. By contrast, Adobe trades at just under 11x sales. Froth or not? 📈 Growth Is Real — But So Is Volatility The one big thing in Figma’s favor is growth. The company increased revenue by 48% last year and by another 46% in Q1 2025. But profitability is uneven. It posted a net loss of $732 million last year — a reversal from a $737 million profit in 2023 that was mostly boosted by a $1 billion breakup fee from Adobe. Without that one-off, the business hasn’t been consistently profitable. In Q1 of this year, however, Figma did turn a small profit of $44.9 million. That’s a good sign — but it’s not enough to embrace a 94x multiple. 🤝 Who Uses Figma and Why It Matters Figma isn’t just a trendy tool for designers — it’s widely used across big tech. Clients include Netflix NASDAQ:NFLX , Coinbase NASDAQ:COIN , Spotify NYSE:SPOT , and even the finance bros over at Vanguard. The software allows real-time collaboration, making it pretty attractive for remote or hybrid teams. Its browser-based model and freemium pricing helped it spread fast during the pandemic, and now it’s seen as essential software for modern digital product teams. If you’ve ever opened a figma.com link during a Zoom call, you already know. “Can everyone see my screen?” 💎 Figma, the Bitcoin Holder In a twist that feels very 2025, Figma disclosed in its filings that it holds Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD . The company invested $55 million in the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF AMEX:BITB in March 2024 — and by March 2025, that stake had grown to nearly $70 million. They also bought $30 million worth of USD Coin CRYPTOCAP:USDC , which they plan to convert into more Bitcoin later on. Figma’s treasury strategy echoes moves by companies like Strategy NASDAQ:MSTR , GameStop NYSE:GME , and Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA , and signals a growing trend among tech companies holding crypto on the balance sheet. It also adds another layer of volatility to Figma’s investment profile — though bulls might see it as a hedge. 🧾 IPO Cash and What Comes Next Figma, as the newest entrant into the US stock market , raised over $1.2 billion from its IPO, capital it says will be used for general corporate purposes, product development, and potential acquisitions. Given its ambitious roadmap, that kind of cash cushion could help sustain growth — especially as it scales up competition with Adobe, Sketch, Canva, and Notion. That said, being public also means new (and painful) expectations. Traders and investors will want to see steady top-line expansion, margin improvement, and a path to sustainable profit. 👀 Should You Buy the Stock Now? The enthusiasm is clear — but so is the premium. Buying Figma now means paying 94x revenue for a company with promising growth but no long-term track record of profitability. That’s a tough sell for value investors but par for the course in growth tech — at least during bullish cycles. If you're a long-term believer in the design software space and Figma's competitive edge, you may see upside. But for others, it might be worth watching a few quarters of earnings before jumping in. IPOs often pull back once the first wave of euphoria fades (and the insiders dump their stakes). 👉 Bottom Line Figma’s market debut was one of the most successful of 2025 so far. The company has the brand, the user base, and the growth metrics to somewhat justify serious investor interest. But it also has a premium valuation and a patchy history of profitability. Earlier this year, CoreWeave NASDAQ:CRWV (cloud computing and AI) and Circle Internet Group NYSE:CRCL (the stablecoin guys) stunned Wall Street with similarly turbocharged entries. It’s a unicorn stampede, and investors are chasing them like it’s 2021 all over again. Off to you : Are you buying NYSE:FIG ? Holding off? Or just admiring the charts like a good minimalist designer?
NYSE:FIG
by TradingView
5
ATEC - NEW 52-WEEK HIGHATEC - CURRENT PRICE : 13.77 ATEC made a new 52-week high last Friday with burst in trading activity. Look at the volume pointed by red arrows. On 31 Oct 2024 there was a significant gap up with high volume, from there the stock continue rises - indicating strong buying interest. Now same scenario happens - gap up with strong volume (hint a strong bullish momentum). Take note also that there is a rising support line - indicating demand is getting higher. There is possibility that the stock may trend higher in near term. ENTRY PRICE : 13.15 - 13.80 TARGET : 16.50 and 18.70 SUPPORT : 12.75
NASDAQ:ATECLong
by IMRAN_96
5
SpySo.... I'm looking for a rebound this week early on from Smallcaps, banks, and cyclical. All last week everything non tech sold off.. it all started with TVC:NYA hitting this monthly trendline As you can see, this has been resistance for about 5yrs and every time it has tagged , a correction has followed. To make matters worse , July monthly candle finished with a gravestone doji reversal. Monthly grave stone reversal means that the trend has likely flipped and for the next few months at least until Oct things will flip bearish for all things non tech. but right now for this week, I think all things non tech gets a big bounce at least early on Why do I say a bounce is coming? Well the hourly technicals for things non tech went way oversold. On top of that look at the daily BBand on NYA and AMEX:IWM With standing World war 3 or Powell firing you will get smoked if you short this. This is why my favorite longs early this week are Smallcaps and banks. Focusing on big tech.. If you didn't know that this market runs on a tech bubble then last weeks divergence was your wake up call. Neither, Dow,IWM or NYA made a new high but the QQQ and spy did. With that being said you will only know if the spy has topped by keeping track of the NASDAQ.. Qqq Over the next 2weeks I think Qqq will retest that breakout of 538-540 which is around the 50ma This drop will bring spy down to 610 retest. But first I think there is extremely high chance Qqq retest it's 20sma to the upside at 560 to the upside before heading down I prefer the short up there at 560 but be aware that price could trade between 550-560 to form a H&S In a move of extreme fawkery we could get a double top instead But that will only come off Qqq breaks back over 565 Overall, I don't really like big tech long this week. You may have some making moves but it will be a spotty picture with some green and most red or choppy. The break below the 20sma on Qqq and all tech indexes AMEX:XLK NASDAQ:SMH AMEX:XLC Means the trend has changed to bearish.. as a trader one of the rules that has helped me is Swing the trend and scalp the counter trend.. If the market is bullish then you swing calls and scalp puts. If the market is bearish , you swing puts and scalps calls. As far as swinging puts this week, just keep your eye on the 20ma of your favorite index/Stock. Once price retest the 20ma , that is the best entry for the short IMO. The weekly bearish engulfing means that's by WED-Thurs you should stop trading calls and look for market to roll over for more downside. Spy Hourly As long as the market opens above 617, you want to scalp the long early in the week with your target of 626-628. I don't know if they will close this gap or not, it will most likely depend on Qqq breaking above 560. Below 617 and 610 comes. If price pushes above 629 , I wouldn't chase calls here. That double bearish engulfing on daily Time frame is no joke, and price will likely no break above 640. Trade idea of the week is AMEX:IWM 200sma is at 216.50 Over 217.00 and I like calls to close gap at 219.40. Price could push up to 20sma at 222 but from there I like the short back down targeting 210
AMEX:SPY
by ContraryTrader
14
How to Use Engulfing Candles in TradingViewEngulfing patterns are among the most powerful candlestick formations because they signal strong momentum shifts and can help you spot dramatic trend reversal opportunities. What You'll Learn: • How to identify valid engulfing formations where one candle completely covers another's body • The two types: bullish engulfing (green candle engulfs red) and bearish engulfing (red candle engulfs green) • Psychology behind engulfing patterns: when one side completely overwhelms the other • Using volume analysis to confirm engulfing pattern validity • Finding meaningful engulfing patterns at trend highs and lows for reversal setups • Timeframe considerations for engulfing analysis on any chart period • Step-by-step trading strategy for engulfing reversal setups • Setting proper stop losses above engulfing candle highs • Determining profit targets below engulfing candle lows • Managing wide-range drawdowns common with strong momentum shifts • Advanced entry technique: waiting for retracements to improve risk-reward ratios This tutorial may help futures traders and technical analysts who want to use powerful candlestick patterns to identify significant momentum changes. The strategies covered could assist you in creating effective reversal setups when strong buying or selling pressure appears at key price levels. Learn more about futures trading with Tradingview: optimusfutures.com Disclaimer: There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please trade only with risk capital. We are not responsible for any third-party links, comments, or content shared on TradingView. Any opinions, links, or messages posted by users on TradingView do not represent our views or recommendations. Please exercise your own judgment and due diligence when engaging with any external content or user commentary. This video represents the opinion of Optimus Futures and is intended for educational purposes only. Chart interpretations are presented solely to illustrate objective technical concepts and should not be viewed as predictive of future market behavior. In our opinion, charts are analytical tools—not forecasting instruments. Market conditions are constantly evolving, and all trading decisions should be made independently, with careful consideration of individual risk tolerance and financial objectives.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by OptimusFutures
1
XRP 4H – Double Bottom… or Just Another Lower High? XRP bounced cleanly from major support — the same zone that sparked its last leg up. This could mark the early stages of a double bottom or just another bear market rally before continuation. 🔹 Previous top = strong supply rejection 🔹 Current support = high-volume bounce zone 🔹 Stoch RSI turning up from oversold Key confirmation would be: – Break of $3.15 – Retest + continuation Otherwise? Another fakeout lower high could trap longs.
by Quant_Trading_Pro
3
Yoga Pants, Tariffs, and Upside: The $LULU BetLululemon NASDAQ:LULU - My Investment Thesis 👖 Hey team, I've been keeping an eye on NASDAQ:LULU for a while, and I'm finally going to pull the trigger. In this market of overhyped MAG 7 stocks, Lululemon dropped 62% since its high in Dec. 2023 until now. Here's why I'm into LULU: Revenue has been growing every year for 5 years. Still, the stock is at its lowest in 5 years. Growth has been slower in the US but good in Asia. Net income has also been growing over the last 3 years. P/E ratio is at 13, the lowest in many years. Stock is also beat up because of the tariffs. Analysts at Morningstar put its fair value at $305 (now $193, giving it an upside of 58%). Product Innovation: New franchises like Daydrift, Shake It Out, and Align No Line have been well-received and will continue to drive sales. Lululemon recently announced an expansion into India for 2026, with plans to open a physical store and a partnership with Tata CLiQ, the e-commerce arm of India’s largest business conglomerate, Tata Group. India can be a huge market for Lulu. There's also intense competition and margin erosion. Saying this, I kinda see people around me less excited about Lululemon products. Technical Analysis: My EVaR - Entropic Value at Risk - is in a low risk area. RSI is oversold. Price has been under the 200 MA for too long. I'm going to proceed with caution on this one, and allocate approximately. 0.5% of my portfolio into it. Quick note: I'm just sharing my journey - not financial advice! 😊
NASDAQ:LULULong
by HenriqueCentieiro
24
Chart Patterns - How to read them like a ProChart patterns are visual formations on price charts that help traders anticipate potential market movements. These patterns fall into three main categories: bullish , bearish , and indecisive . --- 1. Bullish Chart Patterns Bullish patterns often signal that price is likely to move upward. 1.1 Bull Flag * What it looks like: A sharp upward move followed by a small downward-sloping rectangle (the flag). * Meaning: After a strong rally, the price consolidates briefly before continuing higher. * Key insight: A breakout above the flag typically signals a continuation of the trend. 1.2 Pennant (Bullish) * What it looks like: A strong upward move followed by a small symmetrical triangle. * Meaning: Similar to the bull flag, but the consolidation takes a triangular form. * Key insight: Once price breaks above the pennant, the uptrend often resumes. 1.3 Cup & Handle * What it looks like: A “U”-shaped curve (the cup) followed by a small downward drift (the handle). * Meaning: This pattern suggests a period of accumulation before price breaks higher. * Key insight: A breakout above the handle signals the beginning of a new bullish leg. 1.4 Inverse Head & Shoulders * What it looks like: Three low points, with the middle low being the deepest. * Meaning: This reversal pattern appears after a downtrend and signals a potential change to an uptrend. * Key insight: A breakout above the “neckline” confirms the reversal. --- 2. Indecisive Chart Patterns These patterns show market hesitation, where neither bulls nor bears are clearly in control. 2.1 Consolidation Channel * What it looks like: Price moves within a horizontal channel. * Meaning: Market is moving sideways with no strong trend. * Key insight: A breakout in either direction often leads to a significant move. 2.2 Symmetrical Triangle * What it looks like: Two converging trend lines forming a triangle. * Meaning: This is a neutral pattern that can break out in either direction. * Key insight: Traders wait for a breakout before taking a position. --- 3. Bearish Chart Patterns Bearish patterns signal a high probability of downward price movement. 3.1 Bear Flag * What it looks like: A sharp decline followed by a small upward-sloping rectangle. * Meaning: After a strong drop, price consolidates before continuing lower. * Key insight: A breakout below the flag suggests a continuation of the downtrend. 3.2 Pennant (Bearish) * What it looks like: A sharp downward move followed by a small symmetrical triangle. * Meaning: Similar to the bear flag, but the consolidation takes a triangular form. * Key insight: A breakout downward typically resumes the bearish trend. 3.3 Inverse Cup & Handle * What it looks like: An upside-down cup with a small upward drift forming the handle. * Meaning: Indicates weakness after an uptrend, often followed by a drop. * Key insight: A break below the handle usually signals a strong bearish move. 3.4 Head & Shoulders * What it looks like: Three peaks, with the middle one being the highest. * Meaning: A classic reversal pattern that indicates a potential shift from an uptrend to a downtrend. * Key insight: A break below the “neckline” confirms the bearish reversal. --- How to Use These Patterns * Combine pattern recognition with support/resistance, volume, and indicators for stronger confirmation. * Always wait for breakouts and avoid acting too early. * Manage risk with stop-loss orders.
Education
by Louigi_24
84
Broadcom (AVGO): Is This the Dip You've Been Waiting For?Broadcom (AVGO) has been demonstrating a remarkably strong bullish trend since early April, carving out a clear path of higher highs and higher lows. This robust upward momentum is well-defined by a series of ascending channels. Trend and Channel Dynamics: Initially, we observed price action moving steadily within a well-established ascending green channel. The stock showed consistent respect for the channel's boundaries, indicating controlled yet persistent buying pressure. More recently, AVGO broke out above the upper boundary of this initial channel, suggesting an acceleration in momentum. This breakout led the stock into a new, steeper ascending channel, which it has largely been respecting since late June/early July. Current Price Action and Retracement: AVGO is currently trading around the $294.10 mark. After reaching a peak just above $307, the stock appears to be undergoing a healthy pullback. This retracement is a natural part of any strong uptrend, allowing for consolidation and the absorption of profit-taking. Key Support Levels to Watch: Intermediate Support ($283 to $288): Our first crucial area of interest is the intermediate support zone between $283 and $288. This level aligns closely with prior areas of consolidation and, importantly, the lower boundary of the most recent ascending channel. A test of this area would be a typical and healthy retest of previous resistance now turned support, and a bounce here would signal continued strength within the current channel. Key "Good Level" Support ($260 to 270) This zone is highlighted as a "good level" for a reason. It perfectly aligns with key Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent major swing low to high: The 0.5 Fibonacci level at $275.76 sits just above this zone. The crucial 0.618 Fibonacci level is at $268.28. This 'golden ratio' is frequently a strong reversal point in healthy pullbacks. The 0.71 Fibonacci level at $262.44 reinforces the strength of this broader zone. A move into this 260−270 area would represent a deeper but still very much acceptable retracement within a strong uptrend, offering potentially compelling entry or re-entry opportunities for long-term participants. Overall Outlook: The current pullback in AVGO should be viewed as a necessary consolidation within a powerful uptrend rather than a sign of weakness. The stock has demonstrated clear impulsive moves followed by corrective retracements throughout its journey higher, as visually reinforced by the white zigzag line. We will be closely monitoring how AVGO interacts with the 283−288 intermediate support. A successful hold and bounce from this level would suggest a continuation of the upward trajectory. However, if this level is breached, the 260−270 zone becomes the critical area where fresh buying interest is likely to emerge, presenting a lower-risk entry point for those looking to capitalize on AVGO's impressive run. In summary, AVGO remains firmly in a bullish posture, and these identified support levels offer tactical insights for managing positions or initiating new ones. Disclaimer: The information provided in this chart is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. You should carefully consider your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The creator of this chart does not guarantee any specific outcome or profit and is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of using this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Use this information at your own risk. This chart has been created for my own improvement in Trading and Investment Analysis. Please do your own analysis before any investments.
NASDAQ:AVGOLong
by ManiMarkets
10
MRVL Massive 15-Years Symmetrical Breakout Targets AheadMarvell Technology (MRVL) has just completed a monumental breakout from a 15-years symmetrical triangle, a rare and powerful long-term accumulation structure. This type of macro consolidation typically precedes a major directional expansion, and in this case, the breakout confirmed bullish continuation. Currently, MRVL is forming a rising channel structure, with price bouncing cleanly from the lower boundary confirming demand and the continuation phase of the macro move. The 1:1 projection from the symmetrical triangle gives us a clear target trajectory, with the final leg potentially extending to $229, aligning perfectly with the upper boundary of the rising channel. In the short to mid-term, the ideal buyback opportunity rests near $67.50, should the market retest previous breakout support or the lower boundary of the channel once more. This zone offers asymmetric risk-to-reward potential for long-term investors and swing traders alike. Key Targets 📈 $67.50 – Buyback Opportunity Zone 📈 $229 – Rising Channel Top / 1:1 Expansion Target A breakout this large is no coincidence, it’s backed by years of price compression and institutional positioning. Now is the time to watch closely. 📩 Drop your view in the comments and share your stock requests for quick analysis. Only stock assets will be accepted under this post.
NASDAQ:MRVLLong
by weslad
10
Smoothie in One Hand, Chart in the Other: Your Vacation ManualSome traders bring a beach read. Others bring their TradingView charts. It’s the heat of the summer and we figured, why not take it easy with a breeze of lightweight lines to pair with your mezcal espresso martini? Let’s talk about how to relax while still watching the markets. 🏄‍♂️ Market Never Sleeps… But You Should Vacations are supposed to be about unplugging, but for traders, that’s just code for “I’ll switch to the app instead.” And we don’t blame you. With all that’s going on — US-EU tariff deal, stocks at record highs, and Ethereum BITSTAMP:ETHUSD outperforming Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD in a monster July run — it’s only natural for market participants to be hooked at this time. But watch for those signs of getting overly attached. Studies show performance suffers when you're overcooked — like your last scalp trade on Powell Day. So yes, that mojito matters. Just don’t place a leveraged position on a pool float. 📅 Timing the Market… and Your Booking Let’s talk timing. The pros know not to schedule getaways during Nonfarm Payrolls week or FOMC decision day. (Unless your idea of relaxing is explaining yield curves to your kids on a ferry across lake Como.) Instead, try planning your time off during historically low-volatility periods. Summer often sees volume dry up like your skin without sunscreen. Think August’s fairly dry weeks — when even the algorithms seem to be on holiday. As always, consult with the Economic Calendar to know when these are. Bonus tip: if you’re flying and you wanna stay wired in, go for premarket or after-hours shifts. Nothing says “seasoned trader” like placing an order while the flight attendant gathers everyone’s attention for the safety demo. 🧴 SPF 50 and the S&P 500: Know Your Risk Exposure In these scorchers outside, you wouldn’t step out without sunscreen, right? But would you let your positions roast unsupervised? Use stop losses like you use sunblock: generously and repeatedly. Even better — scale back. Summer’s thin liquidity (and other summer trading traps ) can turn minor market moves into full-on tidal waves. No one wants to explain to their friends why they lost 40% of their portfolio during a snorkeling trip. Adequate position sizing is your beach umbrella. It doesn’t stop the storm, but it’ll stop the burn. 🧭 Wi-Fi, but Make It Secure Public Wi-Fi is great for scrolling memes, not executing trades. One accidental login from a beachside café in Mykonos and boom — your brokerage account may become a group project. Trading from your vacation spot shouldn’t be a flex (no matter how much you want to look cool to the bunch of people around you). Focus on your game, trade in silence, and bask in sunlight and success. ☀️ Pack Light, Trade Lighter The golden rule? If you’re not at your desk, don’t trade like you are. Scale back positions, minimize leverage, and don’t try to outperform the market while someone’s kid is throwing a beach ball at your head. This is a maintenance phase, not a moonshot month. Think: protect capital, avoid drawdowns, maybe sneak in a swing trade between sunscreen applications. 📲 Must-Have Apps for Sand-and-Screen Trading You’re not bringing a full setup, but your phone can still do the heavy lifting. Load it with TradingView (obviously), your broker, ideally paired with TradingView, and a solid news feed . Bonus points for noise-canceling headphones that can drown out both market panic and crying toddlers. Set up push notifications smartly — only the alerts you actually need. You don’t want your wrist buzzing every time Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA moves 0.1%. Question for the road : What’s your best summer trade… and was it worth checking your phone at dinner to place it?
SP:SPXEducation
by TradingView
13
Deep Dive Into Relative Strength Index (RSI)The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator developed by J. Welles Wilder Jr. that measures the speed and magnitude of price changes. Introduction In the world of trading, timing is everything — and few indicators have stood the test of time like the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Introduced by J. Welles Wilder in 1978, the RSI is a momentum oscillator that helps traders evaluate the strength and speed of price movements. Whether you're trading stocks, forex, or crypto, understanding how RSI is calculated and how to interpret its signals can give you a critical edge. In this article, we’ll break down exactly how the RSI works, explore its formula, and dive into practical ways you can incorporate it into your trading strategies. From spotting potential reversals to identifying overbought and oversold conditions, the RSI remains a cornerstone of technical analysis — but only if you know how to use it properly. Let’s explore the mechanics and the mindset behind this powerful indicator. What Is RSI and How Is It Calculated? The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements over a defined period. It outputs a value between 0 and 100, which helps traders determine whether an asset is overbought or oversold. The default RSI setting uses a 14-period lookback window and is calculated with the following steps: 🔷Calculate the average gain and loss over the last 14 periods: Average Gain = Sum of all gains over the past 14 periods / 14 Average Loss = Sum of all losses over the past 14 periods / 14 🔷Compute the Relative Strength (RS): RS = Average Gain / Average Loss 🔷Apply the RSI formula: RSI=100−(100/(1+RS)) The result is a single number between 0 and 100 that indicates the asset's momentum. How to Use RSI in Trading Strategies ⚡️Overbought and Oversold Conditions Strategy RSI > 70 typically signals that an asset may be overbought and due for a pullback. RSI < 30 suggests the asset might be oversold, potentially primed for a bounce. However, these levels aren’t absolute sell or buy signals. In strong trends, RSI can stay overbought or oversold for extended periods. 📈Long Trading Strategy Example: 1. Identify the major trend, to find the long trades it shall be uptrend. On the screen below you can see 1D time frame for BITMART:BTCUSDT.P . 2. Move to lower time frame (in our case 4h) and find the moment when RSI falls below 30. This is our oversold condition and we are going to look for long trade. 3. Find the local support zone and open long trade. 4. Take profit when price reaches resistance level next to the previous swing high 5. Don’t forget to put initial stop loss when enter position. The best stop loss which will give you 3:1 risk to reward ratio. 📉Short Trading Strategy Example 1. Identify the major trend, to find the short trades it shall be downtrend. On the screen below you can see 1D time frame for BITMART:ETHUSDT.P . 2. Move to lower time frame (in our case 4h) and find the moment when RSI grows above 70. This is our overbought condition and we are going to look for short trade. 3. Find the local resistance zone and open short trade. 4. Take profit when price reaches support level next to the previous swing low 5. Don’t forget to put initial stop loss when enter position. The best stop loss which will give you 3:1 risk to reward ratio. ⚡️RSI Breakout Strategy RSI is breaking through 60 indicating bullish momentum shift if the long-term trend is bullish can be the potential long signal RSI is breaking down 40 indicating bearish momentum shift if the long-term trend is bearish can be the potential short signal This strategy works great only on the trending market, don’t use it on the range bounded market to avoid whiplashes. 📈Long trading strategy example: 1. Make sure that long-term trend is bullish. Use 200 period EMA as its approximation. If price remains above it we can look for potential long trade setup. 2. If RSI crossed above the level 60 open long trade. 3. Put the initial stop-loss under the signal candle’s low. 4. Take profit when price reached 3:1 risk-to-reward ratio. 📉Short trading strategy example 1. Make sure that long-term trend is bearish. Use 200 period EMA as it’s approximation. If price remains below it we can look for potential short trade setup. 2. If RSI crossed below the level 40 open short trade. 3. Put the initial stop-loss above the signal candle’s high. 4. Take profit when price reached 3:1 risk-to-reward ratio. In our case we received very fast and profitable trade ⚡️RSI Divergence Strategy RSI can be used also as a trend reversal indicator if we are looking for divergences. This is very reliable sign of current trend weakness and great opportunity open trade against the trend. Usually it’s not recommended, but in case if divergence can be applicable. Bullish divergence is the situation when price created the lower low, while RSI made the lower low. Usually, it indicates that current downtrend is weakening and we can look for long trades Bearish divergence is the situation when price created the higher high, while RSI made the lower high. Usually, it indicates that current uptrend is weakening and we can look for short trades 😎Important hint: it’s rarely covered in textbooks about technical analysis, but in our opinion it’s better to used divergences when RSI was able to cross level 50 between two lows/highs. 📈Long trading strategy example 1. Find at the chart situation, when the price made the lower low 2. At the same time RSI shall set the higher low 3. RSI shall break level 50 between these lows indicating shift to the bullish momentum 4. If price failed to set the clean breakdown open long trade on the candle which set the lower low. Put stop loss under it’s low 5. Take profit at 3:1 RR. When you master this concept, you will be able to have much more RR trades, even 10:1. This is possible because when trend finish you have the highest potential upside 📉Short trading strategy example 1. Find at the chart situation, when the price made the higher high 2. At the same time RSI shall set the lower high 3. RSI shall break level 50 between these highs indicating shift to the bearish momentum 4. If price failed to set the clean breakout open short trade on the candle which set the higher high. Put stop loss above it’s high 5. Take profit at 3:1 RR. When you master this concept, you will be able to have much more RR trades, even 10:1. This is possible because when trend finish you have the highest potential upside Conclusion The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains one of the most powerful and flexible tools in a trader’s technical arsenal — but its real value lies in how you use it. We’ve explored three key RSI strategies: ✅ Overbought/Oversold setups offer simple entry signals in ranging markets, where price tends to revert to the mean. ✅ Breakout strategies unlock RSI’s momentum-tracking potential, helping you ride strong directional moves with confidence. ✅ Divergence detection reveals hidden shifts in market sentiment, giving you an early warning of possible reversals or trend continuations. Each approach has its strengths — and its risks — but together, they offer a complete framework for using RSI across different market conditions 🔑 Key Takeaways: RSI is not just a “buy low, sell high” tool — it’s a multi-dimensional indicator that adapts to trends, momentum, and market structure. The best RSI signals come from confluence: combining RSI with price action, support/resistance, volume, or trend filters like moving averages. Patience and discipline are essential — RSI signals are only effective when paired with proper risk management and confirmation. By mastering RSI beyond the basics, you'll be better equipped to make timely, confident, and informed trading decisions — whether you're entering a pullback, chasing a breakout, or spotting the early signs of reversal.
Education
by Skyrexio
21
TSLA Long-Term Bold Projection (2025-2035)This is a long-term analysis of Tesla (TSLA) stock on the weekly timeframe, combining Elliott Wave Theory, Fibonacci extensions, and price structure (base formations) within a broad logarithmic trend channel. Key Highlights: 🔹 Base Formations: Base 1 (2010–2013): First consolidation before TSLA’s breakout. Base 2 (2014–2019): A wide triangle structure leading to explosive growth. Base 3 (2021–2024): Ongoing range suggesting wave (2) correction. Base 4 (2026–2032): Projected future range before a possible euphoric blow-off phase. 🔹 Elliott Wave Structure: Current wave count suggests TSLA is finishing wave (2) of a larger 5-wave structure. Bullish impulse expected with wave (3), (4), and (5) leading to new ATHs, potentially into the $8,000–$10,000+ range. A corrective ABC phase may follow, bringing price back toward key support (~$450 zone), aligned with Fibonacci retracements and channel support. 🔹 Fibonacci Levels: 0.618 and 2.618 extensions align with historical breakout points and future resistance zones. Long-term projection targets include $1,226, $4,400, and potentially $8,000+, with eventual reversion to the mean. 🔹 Log Channel: Price has respected a long-term ascending channel. Midline and upper resistance bands guide potential future resistance zones.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by msezng
23
MRVL | Ichimoku Breakout Setup with Fractal and MACDMarvell Technology (MRVL) just printed a clean bullish breakout setup across multiple technical systems. Here's the breakdown: Why This Setup Matters Ichimoku Cloud: Price has decisively cleared the cloud with bullish Tenkan-Kijun alignment. The Senkou Span A is rising, and the cloud ahead is thin — suggesting low resistance and potential acceleration. Fractal Support: Multiple upward fractals formed near the $73–$74 support zone, validating the base before the breakout. Price broke the most recent fractal high, triggering a potential continuation. MACD Momentum: A bullish crossover just occurred, with the histogram flipping positive — a classic momentum confirmation following consolidation. Trade Parameters Entry: $76.02 Stop: $70.41 (below the recent flat Kijun and cloud base) Target: $89.93 (R1 pivot zone and psychological resistance) Risk:Reward Ratio: 2.48 Projected Move: +18.35% Additional Confluence The Kumo breakout occurred alongside a flat Kijun and a narrowing cloud — a textbook edge-to-trend signal. Price structure has formed higher lows since June. Potential for strong institutional interest heading into earnings. Risk Notes Watch for rejection around $78.50 (prior resistance zone). The upcoming cloud twist is narrow — if the Tenkan turns flat, a short-term pullback could occur before continuation. Let me know in the comments if you're watching MRVL or trading this breakout. I’ll post an update if we get confirmation above $78 with volume.
NASDAQ:MRVLLong
by yieldzilla888
30
Markets on Fire: Stock Indexes Pop, but Will Big Tech Deliver?S&P 500 and Nasdaq set records. Now it's up to big tech to justify that. Talk about forward-looking valuation. Tech companies’ valuations are largely based on future potential rather than current performance. And that’s what we’re seeing right now getting priced in across the big indexes. You’d think we’d be bored of record highs by now. But no — Wall Street keeps hitting refresh on its all-time-high counter. 🎵 Over and over again. 🎵 On Friday, the S&P 500 SP:SPX notched its 14th record close this year, ending at 6,388.64. The Nasdaq Composite NASDAQ:IXIC followed with its 15th at 21,108.32. Even the Dow TVC:DJI — the older sibling who prefers yield over hype — climbed nearly 0.5% to 44,901.92, within a latte’s foam of its December record . And while indexes are breaking personal bests, investors are buying ahead of some big data deliveries. Why? Because the week ahead is the Super Bowl of Earnings, and the bigger chunk of the Magnificent Seven is up next. 😎 What in the Magnificent Seven? A highly exclusive club with just seven members, the Mag 7 has entered the earnings spotlight — and the audience isn’t going mild. Traders are pricing perfection, and the script better deliver. Meta NASDAQ:META kicks things off Wednesday after the close with expected revenue of $44.8 billion and EPS of $5.87. Can Zuckerberg’s AI narrative get investors to forget about the metaverse? Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT shows up at the same time, hoping to dazzle with $73.8 billion in revenue and $3.38 EPS. Copilot AI better be doing overtime. Then on Thursday, again after lights out, Amazon NASDAQ:AMZN joins the chat with its AWS and ecommerce empire expected to pick up $162.1 billion in revenue. Right behind is Apple NASDAQ:AAPL , fighting to stop its slide into meh-land with projected revenue of $89.2 billion and $1.43 EPS. (Fast fact: AAPL is down 12% year to date — among the worst performers in the crew.) So far, Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOGL already crushed its quarter , posting $96.4 billion in revenue and $2.31 EPS, plus a spicy raise in capex to $85 billion. Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA ? Not so great. The EV maker reported a 12% revenue drop and a 16% net income decline, spooking investors with a warning of “rough quarters ahead.” The stock is lower by 17% year to date. Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA , the AI trailblazer, reports in late August. Until then, it’s chilling on a $4 trillion throne, as per our Top companies rankings, watching its friends sweat it out. 💸 Can the Mag 7 Keep Carrying? Here’s a harsh dose of reality: the entire S&P 500 is riding on the backs of these seven stocks. Analysts expect them to post 14% earnings growth, while the other 493 companies limp along at 3.4%. Talk about top-heavy things. So what happens if even one tech titan misses the mark big time and spooks with scary guidance? A market correction? A buy-the-dip opportunity? And let’s not forget: valuations are stretched. The S&P 500 is now trading at nearly 23x forward earnings (that’s projected profits per share). And the Nasdaq? Don’t even ask. (We’ll tell you anyway — it’s close to 30x). In all that, now’s a great time to keep a close eye on the Earnings Calendar . 📊 Not All Is Big Tech: Fed and Jobs Loom As if this week wasn’t already packed enough, macro is back on the menu. The Federal Reserve meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and Chair Jay Powell is expected to hold rates steady at 4.5%. But don’t rule out drama. A single hawkish word and this party could quickly get some rain on. Powell, the man who moves trillions with a simple “Good afternoon,” has a track record of putting markets in their place when they get too euphoric. And then there’s Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report. Consensus calls for just 108,000 jobs added in July — soft, but not disastrous, and fewer than June’s 147,000 . Blame summer hiring slumps, tariff uncertainty, or the market finally digesting its own hype. Off to you : Can the Magnificent Seven keep this market magnificent? Or are we about to learn what happens when you ride too close to the sun on AI-generated wings?
SP:SPX
by TradingView
14
ALGO Breaks Out of Falling Wedge – 400% Target Ahead?BINANCE:ALGOUSDT has consistently followed a bullish pattern on the weekly timeframe. Each major rally has been preceded by a falling wedge breakout, as shown by the three highlighted instances on the chart. - First breakout: ~200%+ move - Second breakout: ~300%+ move - Current breakout projection: Potential target up to +400% The price has just broken above the wedge and is currently retesting the breakout zone. If history repeats itself, ALGO may be poised for a strong upside move from its current levels. Cheers Hexa🧘‍♀️ COINBASE:ALGOUSD EURONEXT:ALGO
Long
by HexaTrades
38
Retro Editors' picks 2021Going further in our retro EP selection , we present to you a collection of additional scripts from 2021 that have earned a spot in our Editors' picks. These retrospective selections reflect our continued commitment to honoring outstanding contributions in our community, regardless of when they were published. To the authors of these highlighted scripts: our sincere thanks, on behalf of all TradingViewers. Congrats! Circular Candlestick Chart - alexgrover Dominance Pie Chart - fikira Tape - LucF ta (library) - TradingView MathConstants (library) - RicardoSantos MathStatisticsKernelFunctions (library) - RicardoSantos Zigzag Candles - Trendoscope Over the next three months, in the last week of each month, we will share retro Editors' picks for subsequent years: July: retro EPs for 2022 August: retro EPs for 2023 September: retro EPs for 2024 They will be visible in the Editors' picks feed. Previously published retro Editors' picks: May: retro EPs for 2020 █  What are Editors' picks? The Editors' picks showcase the best open-source script publications selected by our PineCoders team. Many of these scripts are original and only available on TradingView. These picks are not recommendations to buy or sell anything or use a specific indicator. We aim to highlight the most interesting publications to encourage learning and sharing in our community. Any open-source script publication in the Community Scripts can be picked if it is original, provides good potential value to traders, includes a helpful description, and complies with the House Rules. — The PineCoders team
SWB:SQ6B
by PineCoders
7
Retro Editors' picks 2022Going further in our retro EP selection , we present to you the third collection of additional scripts that have earned a spot in our Editors' picks, now from 2022. These retrospective selections reflect our continued commitment to honoring outstanding contributions in our community, regardless of when they were published. To the authors of these highlighted scripts: our sincere thanks, on behalf of all TradingViewers. Congrats! Volume Profile, Pivot Anchored by DGT - dgtrd Estimated Time At Price - KioseffTrading Signs of the Times - LucF Strategy (library) - TradingView Intrabar Efficiency Ratio - TradingView Over the next two months, in the last week of each month, we will share retro Editors' picks for subsequent years: August: retro EPs for 2023 September: retro EPs for 2024 They will be visible in the Editors' picks feed . Previously published retro Editors' picks: May: retro EPs for 2020 June: retro EPs for 2021 █   What are Editors' picks ? The Editors' picks showcase the best open-source script publications selected by our PineCoders team. Many of these scripts are original and only available on TradingView. These picks are not recommendations to buy or sell anything or use a specific indicator. We aim to highlight the most interesting publications to encourage learning and sharing in our community. Any open-source script publication in the Community Scripts can be picked if it is original, provides good potential value to traders, includes a helpful description, and complies with the House Rules. — The PineCoders team
SWB:SQ6B
by PineCoders
4
XRP 4H – Golden Pocket Bounce, But Will Bulls Reclaim $3.60?XRP pulled back cleanly into the golden pocket (0.618 Fib) after a strong rally — and buyers stepped in with force. Momentum flipped quickly, and Stochastic RSI is curling up with bullish intent. Now price is holding above short-term support, but faces a key challenge: → $3.60 marks the prior high → Reclaiming that level would confirm bullish continuation → A rejection here would set up a lower high and shift structure bearish This is a make-or-break moment for XRP in the short term. The golden pocket held — now the top of the range needs to flip. #XRP #GoldenPocket #Fibonacci #CryptoAnalysis #StochasticRSI #LowerHighRisk #PriceAction #QuantTradingPro
by Quant_Trading_Pro
6
Inflection point"Tesla is at a binary point on the chart. The stock is wedged tightly between the red, downward-sloping resistance line (upper boundary) and the green, upward-sloping support line (lower boundary)—the classic apex of an asymmetrical triangle. At this stage: A breakout above the red resistance would be a clear bullish signal, potentially starting a new upward trend. A rejection at resistance and breakdown below the green support would signal bearish momentum, with likely downside toward lower Fibonacci levels like 272.77 or 213.97. With price at this inflection zone, the next decisive move—either up or down—will likely define Tesla’s short-to-medium-term trend. This is a textbook example of a binary technical situation: whichever direction is confirmed next, that’s likely to dictate the coming weeks' price action." (Some help from Perplexity)
NASDAQ:TSLA
by paper_Trader1775
9
Trading Divergences With Wedges in ForexTrading Divergences With Wedges in Forex Divergence trading in forex is a powerful technique for analysing market movements, as is observing rising and falling wedges. This article explores the synergy between divergence trading and wedges in forex, offering insights into how traders can leverage these signals. From the basics to advanced strategies, learn how you could utilise this approach effectively, potentially enhancing your trading skills in the dynamic forex market. Understanding Divergences In forex trading, the concept of divergence plays a pivotal role in identifying potential market shifts. A divergence in forex, meaning a situation where price action and a technical indicator like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) or Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) move in opposite directions, often signals a weakening trend. This discrepancy is a valuable tool in divergence chart trading, as it may indicate a possible reversal or continuation of the current trend. There are two primary types of divergence in forex—regular and hidden. Regular divergence occurs when the price makes higher highs or lower lows while the indicator does the opposite, often signalling a reversal. Hidden divergence, on the other hand, happens when the price makes lower highs or higher lows while the indicator shows higher highs or lower lows, typically suggesting a continuation of the current trend. Trading Rising and Falling Wedges Rising and falling wedges are significant patterns in forex trading, often signalling potential trend reversals. A rising wedge, formed by converging upward trendlines, often indicates a bearish reversal if it appears in an uptrend. Conversely, a falling wedge, characterised by converging downward trendlines, typically reflects a bullish reversal if it occurs in a downtrend. Traders often look for a breakout from these patterns as a signal to enter trades. For rising wedges, a downward breakout can be seen as a sell signal, while an upward breakout from a falling wedge is often interpreted as a buy signal. When combined with divergences, this chart pattern can add confirmation and precede strong movements. Best Practices for Trading Divergences Trading divergence patterns in forex requires a keen eye for detail and a disciplined, holistic approach. Here are key practices for effective trading: - Comprehensive Analysis: Before trading on divergence and wedges, be sure to analyse overall market conditions. - Selecting the Right Indicator: Choose a forex divergence indicator that suits your trading style. Common choices include RSI, MACD, and Stochastic. - Confirmation Is Key: It’s best to watch for additional confirmation from price action or other technical tools before entering a trade. - Risk Management: Traders always set stop-loss orders to manage risk effectively. Divergence trading isn't foolproof; protecting your capital is crucial. - Patience in Entry and Exit: Be patient as the divergence develops and confirm with your chosen indicators before entering or exiting a trade. Strategy 1: RSI and Wedge Divergence Traders focus on regular divergence patterns when the RSI is above 70 (overbought) or below 30 (oversold), combined with a rising or falling wedge pattern. The strategy hinges on identifying highs or lows within these RSI extremes. It's not crucial if the RSI remains consistently overbought or oversold, or if it fluctuates in and out of these zones. Entry - Traders may observe a regular divergence where both the price highs/lows and RSI readings are above 70 or below 30. - After the formation of a lower high (in an overbought zone) or a higher low (in an oversold zone) in the RSI, traders typically watch as the RSI crosses back below 70 or above 30. This is accompanied by a breakout from a rising or falling wedge, acting as a potential signal to enter. Stop Loss - Stop losses might be set just beyond the high or low of the wedge. Take Profit - Profit targets may be established at suitable support/resistance levels. - Another potential approach is to exit when the RSI crosses back into the opposite overbought/oversold territory. Strategy 2: MACD and Wedge Divergence Regarded as one of the best divergence trading strategies, MACD divergence focuses on the discrepancy between price action and the MACD histogram. The strategy is particularly potent when combined with a rising or falling wedge pattern in price. Entry - Traders typically observe for the MACD histogram to diverge from the price. This divergence manifests as the price reaching new highs or lows while the MACD histogram fails to do the same. - The strategy involves waiting for the MACD signal line to cross over the MACD line in the direction of the anticipated reversal. This crossover should coincide with a breakout from the rising or falling wedge. - After these conditions are met, traders may consider entering a trade in anticipation of a trend reversal. Stop Loss - Stop losses may be set beyond the high or low of the wedge, which may help traders manage risk by identifying a clear exit point if the anticipated reversal does not materialise. Take Profit - Profit targets might be established at nearby support or resistance levels, allowing traders to capitalise on the expected move while managing potential downside. Strategy 3: Stochastic and Wedge Divergence Stochastic divergence is a key technique for divergence day trading in forex, especially useful for identifying potential trend reversals. This strategy typically employs the Stochastic Oscillator with settings of 14, 3, 3. Entry - Traders may look for divergence scenarios where the Stochastic readings are above 80 or below 20, mirroring the RSI approach. - This divergence is observed in conjunction with price action, forming a rising or falling wedge. - Entry may be considered following a breakout from the wedge, which signals a potential shift in market direction. Stop Loss - Setting stop losses just beyond the high or low of the wedge might be an effective approach. Take Profit - Profit targets may be set at key support/resistance levels. The Bottom Line Divergence trading, coupled with the analysis of rising and falling wedges, offers a comprehensive approach to navigating the forex market. By integrating the discussed strategies with sound risk management and market analysis, traders may potentially enhance their ability to make informed decisions in the dynamic world of forex. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
8
Flat, Quiet… and Full of Clues .Most traders only see the middle. The acceleration. The “trend”. The movement. But that’s just one-third of the story. If you really want to understand the market’s rhythm, you need to study how moves begin, evolve, and die. Let’s break down the 3 key phases every market goes through — again, and again, and again. 📌 1. Accumulation Phase This is the part no one talks about. Why? Because it’s boring. Choppy. Range-bound. Confusing. Most traders get shaken out here. But smart money? They’re quietly buying. You’ll often see: Flat price action with no clear trend Fake breakdowns (to trigger stop-losses) Volume starting to shift Long wicks — both directions This phase is a test of patience, not prediction. And if you learn to read it well, you’ll start catching moves before they go parabolic. 🚀 2. Markup / Acceleration Phase Here’s where everyone wakes up. Momentum kicks in. News gets bullish. Breakouts start working. Pullbacks are shallow. And suddenly, everyone’s calling it a bull market. But don’t be fooled. This is not where smart money enters — this is where they ride the wave they already created. Learn to: Ride trends, not chase them Add on pullbacks Avoid FOMO entries This is the fastest and most emotional part of the cycle — which means it rewards discipline, not excitement. 🧯 3. Distribution Phase The party’s still on… but the hosts are quietly leaving. Price starts to stall. Breakouts stop working. Volume gets heavy at the top. And the same excitement that brought everyone in? It’s now being used to sell into. Distribution is sneaky. It’s not an obvious top. It’s a process — just like accumulation. You’ll often see: Lower highs forming quietly False breakouts to trap buyers Increasing volatility Bullish news… with no follow-through If you’re not paying attention, you’ll keep buying strength — right before the rug gets pulled. So what’s the lesson here? Markets don’t just “go up or down.” They prepare, move, then exhaust. And if you learn to spot these transitions — you’ll stop reacting late and start positioning early. That’s the real edge. currently we are on the accumulation phase so in this idea I tried to show you the real story behind it and as well talk about the two others to beware of them also in the right moment I will talk about them , but for now let's focous on the current phase because we want to be part of the smart money and enjoy the next phase which is 🚀Markup / Acceleration Phase . — 🧠 Save this post. 🔁 Revisit it when you’re confused. 📊 Because the chart isn’t random — it’s just cycling And also remember our golden rule : 🐺 Discipline is rarely enjoyable , but almost always profitable. 🐺 🐺 KIU_COIN 🐺
Education
by Kiu_Coin
12
Understanding ROI in Crypto: More Than Just a NumberHello, Traders! 👏 Return on Investment (ROI) is often the first metric new investors focus on when evaluating an asset, a strategy, or even their trading performance. It’s easy to see why. It's simple, intuitive, and widely used across both traditional finance and the cryptocurrency sector. One formula, and suddenly you have a "score" for your investment. Green is good. Red is bad. Right? Well…Not quite. In the crypto market, where price swings can be extreme, timelines are compressed, and risk profiles differ significantly from those in traditional markets, a simplistic ROI figure can be dangerously misleading. A 50% ROI on a meme coin might look great, until you realize the token is illiquid, unbacked, and you're the last one holding the bag. Conversely, a 10% ROI on a blue-chip crypto asset with strong fundamentals might be significantly more meaningful in risk-adjusted terms. In this article, we'll delve beyond the basic formula and break down what ROI really tells you, how to use it correctly, and where it falls short. Let's go! What Is ROI and How Do You Calculate It? The Basic Formula for Return on Investment Is: ROI = (Current Value – Initial Investment) / Initial Investment. Let’s say you bought ETH at $2,000 and sold it at $2,600: ROI = (2,600 – 2,000) / 2,000 = 0.3 → 30%. Seems straightforward. You made 30% profit. However, crypto is rarely straightforward. What if you held it for 2 years? Or 2 days? What if gas fees, staking rewards, or exchange commissions altered your real costs or returns? Did you include opportunity cost and the profits missed by not holding another asset? ROI as a raw percentage is just the beginning. It’s a snapshot. However, in trading, we need motion pictures, full narratives that unfold over time and within context. Why Time Matters (And ROI Ignores It) One of the most dangerous omissions in ROI is time. Imagine two trades: Trade A returns 20% in 6 months. Trade B returns 20% in 6 days. Same ROI, very different implications. Time is capital. In crypto, it’s compressed capital — markets move fast, and holding a position longer often increases exposure to systemic or market risks. That’s why serious traders consider Annualized ROI or utilize metrics like CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) when comparing multi-asset strategies or evaluating long-term performance. Example: Buying a Token, Earning a Yield Let’s say you bought $1,000 worth of a DeFi token, then staked it and earned $100 in rewards over 60 days. The token value remained the same, and you unstaked and claimed your rewards. ROI = (1,100 – 1,000) / 1,000 = 10% Annualized ROI ≈ (1 + 0.10)^(365/60) - 1 ≈ 77% Now that 10% looks very different when annualized. But is it sustainable? That brings us to the next point… ROI Without Risk Analysis Is Useless ROI is often treated like a performance badge. But without risk-adjusted context, it tells you nothing about how safe or smart the investment was. Would you rather: Gain 15% ROI on a stablecoin vault with low volatility, or Gain 30% ROI on a microcap meme token that could drop 90% tomorrow? Traders use metrics such as the Sharpe Ratio (which measures returns versus volatility), Maximum Drawdown (the Peak-to-Trough Loss During a Trade), and Sortino Ratio (which measures returns versus downside risk). These offer a more complete picture of whether the return was worth the risk. ⚠️ High ROI isn’t impressive if your capital was at risk of total wipeout. The Cost Side of the Equation Beginners often ignore costs in their ROI math. But crypto isn’t free: Gas fees on Ethereum, trading commissions, slippage on low-liquidity assets, impermanent loss in LP tokens, maybe even tax obligations. Let’s say you made a 20% ROI on a trade, but you paid 3% in fees, 5% in taxes, and lost 2% in slippage. Your actual return is likely to be closer to 10% or less. Always subtract total costs from your gains before celebrating that ROI screenshot on X. Final Thoughts: ROI Is a Tool, Not a Compass ROI is beneficial, but not omniscient. It’s a speedometer, not a GPS. You can use it to reflect on past trades, model future ones, and communicate performance to others, but don’t treat it like gospel. The real ROI of any strategy must also factor in time, risk, capital efficiency, emotional stability, and your long-term goals. Without those, you’re not investing. You’re gambling with better math. What do you think? 🤓
Education
by WhiteBIT
3
My UNH Thesis: Betting on a Healthcare Giant's Come BackThe healthcare sector has been in decline, which creates interesting opportunities. I recently talked about a few pharma plays - Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, and Pfizer. Here's why I'm investing in NYSE:UNH : UnitedHealth Group (UNH) has tanked ~50% in the past year, but the July 29 (VERY SOON) earnings could flip the script. As a historically dominant player, UNH is now undervalued amid sector weakness, offering massive upside if regulatory fears ease. Here's my full bull case. 👇 FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS Why the Sell-Off? A Perfect Storm of Bad News UNH crushed the market for 15 straight years (2009-2023) with positive returns, predictable EPS growth, and 134% gains over the last decade. But 2024 brought chaos: Feb: Massive cyber attack caused a one-time EPS hit (non-recurring). Ongoing: DOJ antitrust probe, criminal fraud investigation, rising Medicare costs, and Optum losses. April: Disastrous Q1 earnings miss + lowered guidance. Leadership drama: CEO death. This erased gains (down 7% over 5 years), amplified by healthcare sector outflows—the biggest since 2020. But is this overblown? Signs point to yes. The markets almost always overreact to bad news. Bullish Signals: Insiders Betting Big The tide is turning: Insider Buying Boom: $32M+ in 2024 (vs. $6.6M in 2019), including new CEO/CFO—highest in 15 years. Congress Buying: Q2 2024 saw net purchases for the first time in 5 years (vs. historical selling). DOJ Shift: Probe refocusing on pharmacy benefits (PBM) unit, dropping acquisition/monopoly scrutiny—implies no major findings. Great news! Sector Tailwinds: Healthcare is one of 3 S&P sectors below historical valuations. Super investors (usually tech-obsessed) are piling in, despite the sector's -10% YTD vs. S&P's +13%. Plus, UNH's dividend yield is at a record ~3% (vs. 1.5% avg), with 16%+ historical growth and 100%+ free cash flow conversion. Rare combo of yield + growth! Valuation: Screaming Buy? UNH trades at PE ~11.9 (vs. 10-year avg 23)—a steal. Analysts project 16.7% EPS CAGR through 2029. Conservative Scenario: 16.5% EPS growth + PE to 16.5 = $780/share by 2030 (173% total return, 18% CAGR ex-dividends). Optimistic: PE back to 23 = $1,084/share (280% return). Models confirm: DCF (8% FCF growth): ~$484/share (70% upside). DDM (7% div growth): ~$607/share (112% upside). Blended Fair Value: ~$545/share (75-90% upside from ~$300). Buy below $436 for 20% safety margin. Still, there is fear of DOJ uncertainty—investors hate unpredictability and that's why the stock is so low. Key Catalyst: July 29 Earnings This could be UNH's "most important report ever." Watch for: Regulatory/legal updates (DOJ progress). Full-year guidance revisions. Metrics like medical loss ratio and PBM performance. Positive news = potential rocket 🚀. Expectations are low (20 bearish EPS revisions vs. 0 bullish), so a beat could spark volatility... upward. Risks: Not Without Bumps Regulatory escalation (e.g., PBM issues) could tank it further. Short-term headwinds: Medicare costs, sector selling. Mitigants: DOJ de-risking, strong FCF buffer, insider confidence. Enter cautiously—size positions small. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS I also did a little technical analysis: UNH price is at a resistance level My EVaR indicator tells me we are in a low-risk area RSI says the stock is oversold I added the different price targets for better visualization THE PLAN My plan: Later today, I will allocate 1% to 1.5% of my portfolio to the stock. If it drops, I will continue to DCA. The stock is already really beaten down, and I think a company this large cannot drop much more. Quick note: I'm just sharing my journey - not financial advice! 😊
NYSE:UNHLong
by HenriqueCentieiro
31