Bombardier_(TSX:BBD.B)_July_17_2018For those of you considering shorting Bombardier, I think there is still some upside left or atleast the time is not yet ripe to short the stock just yet. Granted, that based on historical performance (atleast the past 5 years) the stock has reached close to all time highs (since about 2012). Furthermore, the $5.00 mark seems to act as a key resistance level which the stock is having trouble breaching through.
However, as traders we should focus more on logic and less on intuition for better overall portfolio performance. An analysis of the Moving Averages(MA) indicate the the stock is in a uptrend. The price is above the MA, the short MA has crossed the long MA and both MA have an upward trend. In addition, the Accumulation-Distribution (AD) also has an upward trend.
With news that the partnership with Airbus has been formalised, their new line of business jets about to enter service and the train division doing well it would be unwise to short the stock until and unless the trends indicate otherwise. The greatest risk to the company is its large debt that will act as a huge burden in a rising interest rate environment.
With relations souring between USA, Canada and Europe, BBD.B is going to receive additional support from the Canadian government. Also Canadian and European Airlines are going to be prodded by the government to buy more CSeries Aircraft rather than the competing Boeing 737's. With Airbus coming into the fold and marketing the CSeries as one of their aircraft (as it has been rumoured), Bombardier seems to be well positioned to sell more planes. How much of that profit is going to go to BBD.B is a question for another day.
My prediction is that the stock is going through a period of consolidation. If you hold the stock then do not sell just yet but depending upon your risk profile you may want to determine a good exit point in case the stock price indeed goes south. If you are yet to buy the stock, this consolidation might be a good time to buy but you want to set your stop loss at a appropriate level so that you do not lose a huge portion of your capital.
Transportation
Bombardier (TSX: BBD.B)_May_08_2018Bombardier has had an excellent run since the stock reached all time lows of close to CAD$ 0.65 in 2016. Currently, the stock has move either way depending on key market conditions. BBD has quite the large debt (close to $9 Billion). The news of the CSeries partnership with Airbus, their upcoming Business Jet, excellent sales on the transportation sector and sale of underutilised assets has generated considerable buzz and increased confidence in the company and leadership team. However, the coming few weeks/months will be crucial as the sale of the CSeries to Airbus is supposed to clear all regulatory hurdles this year; as well as their new business jet the Global 7000 is getting certified this year; the transportation sector is also expecting new orders esp. in BBD's home state of Quebec. If these events go smoothly, the stock might push the CAD 5-6. On the other hand, if the CSeries deal emerges as a freebie to Airbus and there is delay in the business jet entry into service coupled with any renewed tensions from the US in regards to NAFTA, the stock might fell back in the CAD$ 2-3 price range.
Dow Transportations: Intraday ViewDow Transportations are trading nicely to the upside, with price trading in the middle of a big red third leg, specifically in blue wave (iv) of three. As we can see the index recently completed an extend wave in the previous wave (iii) at the 9491 level from where price started to decline. This decline we now see as part of a minimum three wave correction that could unfold in the current wave (iv). The ideal support for this wave (iv) could be around the 38.2- 61.8 Fibonacci ratio, from where more upside may follow.
SPX, TRAN and XLI Top down approach/ intermarket relationships Nice recovery at the end of today's session, the medium term support area around 1820 remains intact on SPX.
DJ transportation has almost closed positive today despite the overall market drop. I'm looking at XLI as a possible buy on a short term basis.
Knight Transportation Forms Giant Ascending TriangleKnight Transportation has formed a giant Ascending Triangle (purple) pattern.
The catalyst that can drive this stock higher is that an improving U.S. consumer (as evidenced by earnings beats last week from Amazon, Dunkin Donuts, Domino's Pizza, etc) and improving U.S. economy in the 2nd half of 2015 will push up demand for trucking transportation services.
The forward P/E of 18.5 suggests the company is fairly priced in relation to its earnings. Knight Transportation stock trades with a hot PEG ratio of 1.26 which suggests growth can be purchased at a premium right now.
What I REALLY like about this stock though is that the EPS forecast was just raised.
Source: www.guerillastocktrading.com
Can FedEx Deliver Profits?Based on the EMAs, Resistance 179.69, then down to 144 EMA 175.55 for (1) Support prior to earnings, which can cause a drop to the 377 EMA at 168.17 (Trefis Price 157.-12%) This is an options play set up since the dividend payout is when January Options expire. I'd expect a drop after earnings, then a gradual rise in price before dropping. Gas prices might be breaking record lows to boost profits, but Net Debt drops per share price to $69. Ground Shipment drives up per share price to 137.82. FedEx might integrate Netgas in 2015 that will help the bottom line, but not in the first quarter in 2015. EBITDA margins down from 16.8% to 14.9% (2011) due to increased fuel surcharges; this could be a repeat midway into 2015.