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TRAP

Bitcoin's Second Bottom Before Halving: A Potential Trap When Bitcoin undergoes a significant price decline and subsequently forms another bottom before the halving, some traders might interpret this as an attractive entry point to buy Bitcoin at a seemingly discounted price. The expectation is that the halving will trigger a supply shortage and, in turn, drive up the price. However, financial markets are inherently uncertain and influenced by various factors, both within and outside the cryptocurrency space. While historical patterns and past halvings may provide insights, they do not guarantee future outcomes. The second bottom could be a "bear trap," luring traders into buying, only for the price to continue declining or remaining stagnant, resulting in losses for those who entered the market with high expectations. It is essential for traders and investors to exercise caution and avoid making decisions solely based on historical patterns or event speculation. Conducting thorough research, staying informed about market developments, and employing proper risk management strategies are crucial when participating in the volatile and unpredictable world of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Additionally, seeking advice from financial experts can help in making informed investment choices.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by UnknownUnicorn3237473
3
Smart money bear trap thesis?Tags: Blackrock Bitcoin ETF, Inflation, PCE, FED, Wage-price spiral, BTC.D, ETH/BTC Could we be mimicking 1970's market? So last PCI reading came 3% but core CPI is still high and Core PCE (FED's preferred inflation measure) has been sticky in 4.5% area for past several months. Whilst inflation expectations have been tamed by FEDs continued "We remain focused on getting inflation back to 2%." This message must be maintained and a recession is inevitable. Look at 10Y3M yields and 10Y2Y bond yields. We have real pain yet to come. So headline inflation is being curved down and celebrated however the next step is the risk of a wage-price spiral which is being priced in and expected to also not become a threat once unemployment rises but the job markets are remaining resilient. Therefore, the FED will hold interest rates at 5.25-5.50 bps until inflation is confidently curbed. We have not yet seen fear in markets from recessionary risks. Everyone is thinking it will be a mild one however the future is hard to foresee and there are underlying financial risks not in the limelight yet. Now, you have the market context we shall dive into the charts!
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by Muri001
1
BTC ready for is a TrapHello Birdies, EPIC SHORT ALIGNING!!! A exciting week this was. But stay cautious this is a bull trap in progress. As you all know we trade what we see RIGHT! So here is what we are seeing on our weekly chart. The falling wedge going to work as a bull trap. There is a huge trendline which was broke down and converted into resistance The trendline starts in Jan 2021 Converted to resistance in Jun 2022 Retested as resistance in Aug 2022 Its going to test it again somewhere in Feb 2023 Work as a trap and boom Don't beat the line after snake is gone. Trade what you see
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by BlackBirdTrading
10
Bull Run Or Bull Trap, answer in 1 dayIt is quite simple, we are sitting at 23250 for BTCUSD at the moment, if we want to confirm that this is a bull run that can go longer and signal the start of a change out of the bear market we need a monthly candle close above 23250 for a new monthly higher high "above July and August 2022", this will be the first "proper" monthly higher high SINCE the ATH. If BTC fails to achieve this, it will be a lower high and we are in for quite some downside. Lets not forget FOMC at 1st of Feb, so maybe we will have a rally into that and get the monthly high we so desperately need.
by theChartGuru
2
AMD heading toward support areaFor those of you who are following along with me on my little obsession with AMD, the past week was pretty exciting for those who were shorting the stock as the price dropped out of that short-covering rally like a rock for a $9.46 gain. AMD is now reaching a very uncertain area with 3 support levels to get through and it's actually touched an ascending trend line, so I'm expecting a few bounces to occur. My first short target is the middle of the support area at 59.80, but with hindsight, it should have been 63.62 which is the first support level below the 2-year line. The ultimate target is still 50. It's very possible AMD will make a double-bottom before it gets to 50 so I would look out for that. I'm still bearish at this point. Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, and the above statements are not investment advice. My comments are only intended for educational purposes. You are solely responsible for your own trading decisions.
NASDAQ:AMDShort
by cdnbuzzard
SPX. The Certainty Trap ‘Never’ &‘always’ have no place in MKTS!Just passing this cool info written by a guy called Ben Carlson. - Ben discusses the differences between probability and certainty: "There are two arguments I see on a regular basis that show up as a result of data overload: …because that’s never happened before. …because that’s what’s always happened before. -The problem with this line of thinking is that it can lead investors to fall into what I like to call the certainty trap. It’s this all-or-nothing line of thinking that causes so many to constantly attach extremes to every single market move or data point they see. The beginning of the recovery or the end of the world is always right around the corner. The assumption is that we’re always either at a top or a bottom when most of the time the markets are probably somewhere in the middle." -The reason the investing certainty trap is so easy to fall for is because historical data can feel so safe and reassuring. Look here, my data says that this has never (always) happened in the past. Surely this trend will continue. I’ll just sit here and wait for my profits to start rolling in. -‘Never’ and ‘always’ have no place in the markets because no one really knows what’s going to happen next. ‘Most of the time’ is a much more reasonable goal, because nothing works forever and always in the markets. If it did everyone would simply invest that way. I think a much more levelheaded approach is to follow the Jason Zweig 10 word investment philosophy: -Anything is possible, and the unexpected is inevitable. Proceed accordingly.
SP:SPXEducation
by samitrading
2
SMC TrapHello traders - In this part, we will talk about the smart money trap. - There are a lot of traps for traders left by big boys in the markets to take your money. That's why it's important to be careful, and don't swim with fish but swim with sharks if you don't want to be eaten. - The move is designed to first take out early sellers, then take SMC traders. -We'll explain this example in a few steps: 1) We see that the price is in a downtrend, reacting from OB, and supply has full control in this situation. 2) We can all assume that the price will continue to be bearish. 3) Now you can see that the price is coming aggressively to the last OB, and before that, we had WBOS, and there was a trap made for SMC traders. 4) This is inducement, and we talked about it in one of the previous posts, you can go back to it for a more detailed explanation. 5) This OB is not valid for us, because we have seen a lot of liquidity that the price needs to pick up and an aggressive retest. 6) We waited for the price to pick up all the SMC entries, and then the price came to our safe entry, which is marked on the chart as a valid OB. If you liked this example, leave a like for more content like this.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by hybridtradingfx
4
BTC, potential massive bull trap in progress.Two powerful green candles in daily chart all in, right? Be careful, there is a major move coming in weekly chart. BTC right now is forming another strike of bear divergence in OBV, the pivot is the 20700$ area. If BTC continues stalling here you will see sell signal in Coppock Curve and that combined with a bear divergence in OBV will be the trigger for the weekly chart move to the downside. That is the scenario I am looking for. Invalidation: BTC must have a powerful break above 21k, no more sideways there is no time.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by KraIord
1
Bull/Bear Trap + M.E.Bull Trap: those open long position within short period of time the market reverse below the stop loss; Bear Trap: those open short position within short period of time the market reverse above the stop loss; M.E. : Market Engine indicator that gauges the momentum; Price Action Color Bar and M.E. help to eliminate those mislead information to trader/investor and avoid take preemptive action. Check out the Slides to get an ideal how I apply those to filter some of costly trades. docs.google.com
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by situ886
1
XRP BULLFLAG BUY TRAP .. BEARISH STILLHad us pretty fooled lol the resistance are strong .. bullish pennant bull flag formed and now became an impressive fake out. This is unbelievable i know y’all don’t want to hear this but this seem like XRPUSD ( Ripple) will crash.. it will drop a lot faster than expected. Since now the Feds made the 3rd 75 basis point to fight off the inflation to try to keep it under control. All the change the bands are pointing down … we will see the big fall. Please trade safe and don’t get spikes out.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDShort
by JoyBoyVegae
2
EURUSD: Buyers Are Drowning 🏊Buyers are taking a real beating, they keep buying but the dollar keeps pumping. At some point the market will need to give them a sign of relief. Since we have swept the liquidity below this zone and tapped into a mayor order block, we may begin to see slight relief here. BUT Don't think that a bullish candle means a reversal! This is what they will want you to believe. I am expecting a buy lure followed by a strong sweep before price moves in the intended direction. Something similar to what I have illustrated. Of course, this is a long term play and will require lots and lots of patience and trade preparation.
by AlkalineFX
29
CADJPY UPDATECADJPY is throwing multiple wicks to the upside on the weekly TF, on the daily there is a clear distribution phase occurring and the market is clearly decelerating. Yesterday's daily candle closed bearish with a wick to fill to the downside , on the 4H TF price recently made a BOS with a 4h impulse followed by a corrective move, the correction is currently testing the 0.618 fibonacci in confluence with 4h supply. Also notice how on the LTF price appears to have broke above a descending trendline, this is a trap to induce traders into opening longs in order to create liquidity to move into below. Dont get trapped the structure of the market never lies - trendlines can be deceiving unless used correctly.
Short
by ITSCRYPTO1
📌Bear and Bull Traps:what is it and how to avoid ?😵Capital markets like crypto, stocks and forex are full of traps designed to prey on unsuspecting and emotional retail traders. Two of the most common are bear traps and bull traps. Traders have many challenges when trading, these include high volatility, unexpected events, incorrect signals, risks, among other challenges like Bull Trap or Bear Trap. Before we tell you about the Bear Trap and the Bull Trap, we will tell you what traps are like in Trading. What is a trap? Every day, the market presents numerous traps that reach a large number of people and absorb the volume necessary to survive. The market constantly develops pricing structures that confuse the vast majority of participants. The trap occurs when the price appears to be about to break a key level , such as support/resistance lines, dynamic trend lines, or major moving averages, and then is pulled in the opposite direction. For example, it passes the support level in a downward movement and then goes back up. " as I mentioned the Traps can be bullish or bearish. In a market structure the ascendants are called Bulls, that is, Bulls Traps and the descenders are called Bears , Bears Traps." This type of trap can be caused by the behavior of the main market players(whales , exchanges, institutional investors, hedge funds ) in order to liquid retail traders by hitting their stop-lose or liquidation price to put them out of the game! Bull Trap : A bull trap is a situation where the price breaks through resistance, indicating a strong upward trend, but turns and falls. Exampels: 1: 2: 3: 4:https://www.tradingview.com/x/dDMmav8j/ To identify this type of bull trap, it is necessary to identify the following: The general trend is still bearish in the long-term and price suddenly goes up . There is a rally that looks like a trend reversal. The price goes back up, creating higher high of previous leg , which puts everyone out of the game as stop-loss was usually just above the recent movement . The price drop below the previous high again . Likewise, to avoid get in a bull trap , you must also: -Watch for resistance tests: in this case, if the price tests resistance several times in the strong uptrend, it could be an indication that a price reversal is coming. Define the sideways movement: If the price has started to move horizontally within the uptrend, the uptrend is likely to end soon. So, if the price crosses an upper line of the horizontal channel, you should stay away from the market to avoid a possible bull trap. Check candle size: the price forms a larger candle than the previous one in the last step of the trap. There is no 100% guarantee that it is a trap, but it is better to be careful and confirm with models or indicators. Bear Trap : You should be especially careful not to fall into a bear trap when you want to open a trading position when the price is breaking the support line. This is because when the price breaks the support line, some traders go short and then the price reverses and goes up. Now traders are left with open short positions, so they can exit trades or wait for the price to reach the stop loss level they previously set. Examples: 1: 2:https://www.tradingview.com/x/wI0UIPDC/ 3:https://www.tradingview.com/x/0rqsMkqQ/ To identify this type of bear trap , it is necessary to identify the following: The general trend is still bulish and price initially goes up. There is an upward to downward reversal that forms a top. People go short and place their stop loss just above this high. The price goes back up, above the previous high, triggering many stop losses. How can you avoid these pitfalls? Traders and investors can avoid traps by looking for confirmations following a breakout. For example, a trader may look for higher than average volume and bullish candlesticks following a breakout to confirm that price is likely to move higher. A breakout that generates low volume and indecisive candlesticks—such as a doji star—could be a sign of a Possible traps. The best way to handle bull traps is to recognize warning signs ahead of time, such as low volume breakouts, and exit the trade as quickly as possible if a trap is suspected. Stop-loss orders can be helpful in these circumstances, especially if the market is moving quickly, to avoid letting emotion drive decision-making. so : 1-Check the volume as first confirmation: Real price reversals require a significant amount of volume. If you see a sudden reversal without a large amount of volume behind it, it’s most likely a trap. 2-Look for different divergences confirmations: for example false breakouts preceded by significant negative RSI divergence.RSI or “relative strength indicator”, is a popular momentum indicator that charts the strength and weakness of an asset’s price. 3-Check the News: News, whether it’s good or bad, can have a significant emotional effect on inexperienced traders and lead to poor irrational trading decisions. Market makers know this and often use news to initiate bull or bear traps. If you see a sudden price movement with average volume, be sure to check the news before making any trading decisions. More often than not, movements like these are simply designed to catch emotional traders off guard, And more importantly, ask this question in which market is a news broadcast? For example, in the recent down market, Dogecoin was supported several times by Elon Musk, which continued its downward trend as a bull trap after the temporary price pump. 4-Risk Management rules: (proper position size and stop-loss ) Using stop-loss orders is a crucial part of any successful trading strategy. Even if you feel completely confident about a trade, the market can still completely go against you. It's important to set a strict loss allowance by closing a position if a trade goes the wrong way. it dosent matter where you place your stop lose by set aside maximum 1-2% loss of your starting capital can be a good starting point. 5-Choosing the right market and instrument Also, as a last point, it is very important in which market we trade and which pair we choose For example, if you trade in the cryptocurrency market, you should know that this market is much more subject to manipulation by whales and big players due to the inherent risk such as the low market cap and the very low trading volume compared to other markets. They can manipulate the market price and the price of a crypto token, so if we trade in these market, it is important to pay attention to choose a the appropriate pair by good trading volume and marketcap . Final thoughts: It can be wise to always use risk management rules and stop loss order to build potential losses into your trading strategy and minimize emotional turmoil. Don’t expect the market to recover in your favor because many times, it simply won’t. Bear and bull traps are one of the most common trading pitfalls when trading in any market especially cryptocurrency market . Thankfully, it’s easy to minimize losses by identifying these traps or if you have the right cryptocurrency trading strategy and mindset.
GEMINI:BTCUSDEducation
by PRO_SMART_Trader