TRAP
I see a bear-trap after v-bottom against Bitcoin
In order to confirm my previous analysis, we need to see some kind of a bear-trap reversal. It probably would be very choppy and uncertain but I see a strong enough v-bottom in all of crypto that I think this could hold up.
Long entry target would be around the rectangle box I drew, but only on the way back up and out of that range as a minor confirmation of this having become a bear-trap, but the move back up after the drop-return to 19.7k sats will need to include pretty strong bullish volume at least similar to the volume of the move down to under 20k sats.
Failing to move up quickly could easily lead to a larger-distributive top for THETA/BTC.
Bitcoin cycle top projection if epic bear trapNot 100% on how important it is to secure the blue channel but if we close above 36k on the weekly this Sunday, It will only be weekly wicks below the blue channel leaving high probability of securing the channel and this being a massive bear trap.
Put this all together with this Etherium cycle fractal idea:
Etherium cycle projection fractal ideaLook closely at the two. Note we are half way. Prob go to Oct 2022-ish. At end of each stretch, we break above the median line to hit top of channel. Bitcoin peak in the 100ks this Dec-ish. Eth & alts not do so well but still some up. 2022 Eth and alts really get to shine for the last leg. Imo, if this plays out, it explains why the flippening wont happen bc its bitcoins time to shine next and all that capitol going to rotate rn. Bitcoin prob about to outperform for the next leg up(rest of this year) just like it did in the 3/4 section of the 2017 run.
Put this all together with this Bitcoin cycle top projection:
Bulls putting up a fight but 30K has been breached. Today's close will decide a lot. below 30k will be an extremely bad sign. The bulls are fighting hard to reclaim and stay above 30K but the red candles and the volumes associated with those tell another story. I feel that we will go further down after a mini bounce.
Food for thought: If everyone is hoping for 24K, do you think it will go to 24k?
Is this mini bounce from 28.5k to 31k a bear trap?
⚡️ Understanding Breakout Traps ⚡️If we see a pattern form that retail likes to trade,
It is highly likely that this pattern may get manipulated.
The reason these common patterns get manipulated is
because of liquidity forming.
Banks want to make sure they can create enough liquidity
for themselves to get positioned nicely in the market.
They do this by driving the price up/down into stop loss areas.
To avoid being caught out we need to sit on our hands,
wait for the stop loss hunt to occur before we go-ahead
with our initial position bias.
UNDERSTANDING LIQUIDITYIn this quick and easy lesson, I will break down the concept of liquidity.
If you retain the thought that liquidity stands for an area where stop losses are you will grasp this concept quickly.
We often see spikes into areas of liquidity before true moves continue, this is so that banks can capture as many orders as possible before they depart from the area.
ETH scenarioATM ETH is facing an H&S pattern which could lead the price to 2060 usd zone.
But, to me its a trap... i mean, if ETH manage to close current candle (15min left) above 2360 (blue trendline), and the next ones above 2450 (white ray).. we will see a very nice continuation to the upside.
Let me know what do you think about this. And give me a thumb up if you find this is good content.
Peace and Joy!
Crypto SolArb
BTC - Relief rallyAs the sentiment in the crypto space is becoming more bearish, a relief rally will liquidate many holders. Compared to the 17 cycle we could expect a instant bounce back to the upside and continuation in the bull market till the top. In 13 however, it took 6 months before we saw any breaking of previous highs. I expect something in the middle will happen in this cycle. I don't think the price will bounce as it did in the 2017 cycle but I also don't think we will trade sideway for 6 months. Rather i suspect June/July will be accumulation phases before we start running up again. I expect to break new highs before summer ends and a continuation from there to our market top somewhere in November.
Let me know what your thoughts are in the comments below.
BTC_USDT,WrongPlease be very, very careful
Based on the current market wave motion, all Elliott parameters were confirmed in all four waves formed.
And in the next 4 to 7 days we should be ready to start the fifth wave, which will reduce the price of bitcoin to 26,500.
This has been confirmed, 90% probability of this happening.
The market is approving each parameter.
We do not yet have complete price action patterns to confirm this fall, but Elliott has fully confirmed it.
I am monitoring the whole time frame, I will leave the exit alert as soon as I receive a strong signal
XAUUSD TO 1777 CONFLUENCE COUNT
1. THREE WEEKLY CANDLE REJECTION AT PREVIOUS MONTHLY SUPPORT @1686
2. MARCH 15 WEEKLY CANDLE CLOSE ABOVE PREVIOUS MONTHLY RES @1733
3. MARCH 22 WEEKLY CANDLE FINDS NEW SUPPORT AT PREVIOUS MONTHLY RES OF @1733 NOW TURNED SUPPORT.
4. MARCH 29 CANDLE RETEST PREVIOUS MONTHLY SUPPORT OF @1686 ( MAJOR REJECTION )
5. APRIL 5 CANDLE OPENS BULLISH LOOKING FOR CONTINUATION AND FURTHER BREAKING PREVIOUS RES OF @1733
ALSO BULLISH PENANT FORMATION ON 1H TIMEFRAME
6. POTENTIAL RETEST OF MONTHLY RES @1777 WHICH IS ALSO A 50% FIB RETRACE ON OUR MONTHLY TIMEFRAME
7. BUY ENTRY POSITION @1733 .
TAKEPROFIT @1777
8. STOP LOSS SET @1725 DEPENDING ON RISK MANAGEMENT.
gap up down on goldthe reason gold was ralieghing was because the dxy dropped . but the dxy has retraced to the .382 . if i was holding gold buys from thursday i would be worried right now . what a trap on gold the most minipulated pair on the planet . they do love to trap traders but they have excelled this time . if gold does gap down on open it may gap past many peoples stops. my thoughts and prayers any one who bought thursday night . good luck lol
DJI(4H): POTENTIAL TRAPIn this chart I dig deeper into price action and trends on the DJI on the 4H time frame, exposing a potential trap - mainly for new traders and some seasoned traders. What you don't see is most important. Lots of indicators in here - requires study. I use them only to expose what's happening.
In other charts/videos I've shown that the DJI is weakening based on three successive weaknesses in the ATR price action. Trends are generally more important than price-points.
Price has collapsed a bit but is now in what I think is a critical zone . There are no 'predictions' here; only probabilistic estimates based on my experience.
The zone of congestion is a red rag to the bulls and let's be real; this is still a bull market. I don't expect the bulls to just roll over easily. Only extreme force would decimate them and nothing like that is seen on the horizon at this point in time.
The obvious broadening wedge is a sign of panic due to the distance from the ATR (4H) line. In other words this is not a burn down of price, else the ATR line would have followed closer to price.
The alternate ABCD is only indicative . It is contrary to conventional 'teachings', which says there are only 6 types of ABCD. The reality is that ABCD's do what they want and form various shapes, the main element is AB=CD.
Weekend Wall Street (DJI) not available on Tradingview, already indicates that the bulls are getting ready to charge with price action developing north by 100 points. This is just the ' pawing of the ground ' perhaps, so price movement on Sunday night 300 points south wouldn't mean much. They can kick up a lot of dust before launching north.
I think the important thing here is to avoid 'obsession' with the 'instrumentation' i.e. indicators. Fly the plane, which means don't get fried in this market. The human eye and brain are better than all indicators, when used properly of course. 🙄😁
Indicators only give us an idea based on historical data. No indicator(s) 'predicts' the future for you.
What we can't see is future price action, which is what will better determine what's likely to happen next. Therefore do not rely on anything said in this educational post for decision-making on entry of a live position.
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.