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Treasuries

$TLT selling off to $138-141 before rallying higherTLT looks to be close to finding a bottom. I could see TLT finding a bottom in the $138-141 range then basing for a couple of weeks before rallying higher in early November. Key dates and levels on the chart. My macro thesis is that we're at the start of a larger pullback in markets and money will flow to treasuries as a safety net. Dates align on both the S&P bottom and TLT top around March... Let's see how it plays out.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by benjihyam
3
CAD climbs on soft US data, risk-on moodThe Canadian dollar continues to show strong movement early in the New Year. USD/CAD is currently trading at 1.2674, down 0.56% on the day. The first tier-1 events in 2022 out of the US disappointed, missing their estimates. The ISM Manufacturing PMI for December slowed to 58.7, missing the consensus of 60.0 and below the November reading of 61.1 points. The PMI showed a 19th consecutive month of expansion, so there's no arguing that the manufacturing sector is not performing well. Still, the December reading was the lowest since January, which posted an identical figure of 58.7 points. Manufacturing has been expanding, but growth has been hampered by raw material shortages, a lack of workers and supply bottlenecks. ISM Manufacturing Prices slowed to a 12-month low, with a reading of 68.2. This was down sharply from the previous read of 82.4 and shy of the estimate of 79.5 points. On the employment front, JOLTS Jobs Openings for November decreased to 10.4 million, missing the forecast of 11.07 million and below the October reading of 11.09 million. The Canadian dollar has also benefitted from elevated risk sentiment. Treasury yields have been rising this week, as investors continue to sell Treasury bills on improved sentiment that the latest wave of the Omicron variant, although extremely contagious, will be less severe than originally feared. In the US, Omicron cases are exploding, with the average number of new cases breaking above 400 thousand, a 200% increase in the past 14 days. However, hospitalisation rates have not jumped higher and Covid-related deaths have actually declined slightly during this period. With no indications that Omicron will have a devastating effect on the global economy, investors remain in a risk-on mood. USD/CAD has support at 1.2558 and 1.2477 There is resistance at 1.2784. Above, there is resistance at 1.2929
by OANDA
Yields Soar, Treasuries Smash Lows!!Bonds have tumbled off soaring yields. Rising inflation seems to be one of the key drivers, along with paradoxically increasing risk on sentiment in stocks, as the indexes are testing new highs again. ZN smashed through support in 130 handle. We saw absolutely no support from 130'00, the final barrier to the 129 handle, and even less from 129'26, the first level in the 129's. We finally bottomed out (for now) at 129'11, one of the levels we have identified months back using inverse Fibonacci Extension levels. The Kovach OBV has fallen off a cliff with the selloff, but appears to be leveling off as the price stabilizes here. Anticipate some ranging at current levels are digested. The next level down is 128'24. If we catch a relief rally, then 129'26 should provide resistance.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
Bitcoin, Treasuries, USD Retesting, All Telling Same StoryWhatever your opinion of these assets, they're all behaving in a fairly similar fashion, and they all have been behaving somewhat similarly over the last 3 years. No surprise, bitcoin and foreign currencies ten to outperform when financial conditions are loose and loosening. The vice versa is likely true as financial conditions tighten. Interestingly, if you pull up the charts on an individual basis, they all are retesting flags on a technical level. That doesn't mean they won't break back up and rally, but all three showing the same sign seems to add more weight behind likelihood that markets are in for a break upward in real rates and reduced liquidity / financial conditions.
TVC:US30Y
by GTStockmaster
The Bond Marekt Awaits Inflation DataBonds have continued their slow decline trough support at 130'07 and are hovering just above 130'00. We are starting to see support form in the middle of the vacuum zone between these two levels, confirmed by two green triangles forming on the KRI. Both Kovach momentum indicators have dropped precipitously, which might indicate that we are staring to become oversold and that 130'00 is a floor for now. If we see a relief rally, watch 130'07 or 130'19 for a target. If we continue to decline and break 130'00 then 129'26 is the next target. ZN is likely not to make any significant moves until CPI data comes out this morning.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
Bonds Consolidate, Breakout Soon??Bonds have consolidated as we have expected. We are seeing strong support at 130'19, and appear to be forming a flag pattern bounded by 130'07, and 131'02. The Kovach OBV is trending up slightly, suggesting a small bull bias. From here it could go either way. The Fed is discussing tightening, which would be bearish for bonds, but persistent risk off sentiment due to the Omicron strain could give ZN a lift, though it appears this may be priced in by now. We will see continued support from the upper and lower bounds of the range. Volatility has consolidated quite a bit so we expect a breakout either way potentially soon.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
1
10 Year Treasury Yields on track to reaching a minimum of 1.77Back in August I posted a Descending Broadening Wedge setup where we were at a potential bottom and today it would seem that we have successfully broken out of said wedge and back tested as support and are looking to finish the measure move that will take us to a minimum target of 1.77. If you look on a timeframe like the weekly we have potential to go all the way up to 2.5 if we break above 1.77 but i wont go into charting that yet until we begin to. To see the original idea check the related ideas tab below.
TVC:US10YLong
by RizeSenpai
US treasuries still bullishFED continues QE and purchasings of the FED remain unchanged, meanwhile inflation is slighty below the expected targets and the economy is doing very well, while not being yet there where it should be, according to recent FED statements, so QE can be expected to be continued and interest rates remain unchanged until somewhat in 2022. Money supply remains gigantic and annual inflation is being expected around 4 %, no one wants to hold cash (e.g. dollar) in this environment
CBOT:ZB1!Long
by MrKrft
TLT Breaks Out of Descending Wedge to seek new All-Time Highs?Using the same fractal analysis method I used to forecast the BTC dump & dead-cat bounce, I began watching US Treasuries as TLT was set to break out of a descending wedge. Now that it is has, I'm publishing the idea for others to weigh in on. If the pattern plays out we could see new all time highs; which suggests we could be entering another period of recession much like the financial crisis of '08. I do not currently have a position & this is not financial advice. Just sharing observations as they occur. If you wanted to play the pattern, TMF(long) & TMV(short) are leveraged ETFs you can use.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by jsgiardino
1
5 Year T-Note Futures Heading Lower Towards 123Disclaimer The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time publishing, I have a position in 5-Year T-Note Futures (ZF1!) . Trend Analysis The main view of this trade idea is on the 2-Hour chart. zf1! has been channeling lower after making a high of 124’08 on July 8th. First low was observed on July 13th around the 123’18”5 price level and a lower high is seen around 124 on July 15th. ZF1! Is expected to make a lower low at 123’14”5 in the short term. Technical Indicators ZF1! is currently below its short (25-SMA), medium (75-SMA) and fractal moving averages and its RSI is trading below 50. Moreover, the KST recently had a negative crossover. Recommendation The recommendation will be to go short at market. At the time of publishing ZF1!is trading around 123’25”2. The medium-term target price is observed around the 123’14”5 price level. A stop loss is set at 124. This produces a risk reward ratio of 1.54.
CBOT:ZF1!Short
by Ceddy86